‘How are the Dogs gonna do?’
Mark Richt's seat will be slightly less warm after this season. (Associated Press)
I’ve been getting the question all summer, seemingly everywhere I go. In the elevator at work. In restaurants. At a funeral.
“How are the Dogs gonna do? How many wins do you think they’ll have?”
So now it’s time to make that annual venture out on the limb and share with you what I’ve been telling those folks, though I first must remind you that my record as a seer is mixed.
Most years since I’ve been doing this blog I’ve been fairly conservative in my predictions, with the Dogs even bettering my forecast a couple of times. And then there’ve been a couple of seasons like last year, when I predicted a 10-2 regular season and Georgia winning the SEC East. That didn’t go so well.
Of course, I wasn’t alone. In a poll we did here last year, only 18 percent of you thought Georgia would have less than nine wins and 44 percent expected at least 10 wins.
I’m not going quite that far this year. I think Mark Richt’s team will do well enough to turn the heat down a notch under his seat and, depending on how many times South Carolina and Florida mess up, they might still be in contention for the SEC East late in the season.
But 10 wins in the regular season? Can’t quite see that.
I think Todd Grantham’s defense will be much improved this year, though I’ll feel much better the first time I see Kwame Geathers or John “Motel 6″ Jenkins stuff a big-time running back. I’m excited about the linebackers and I feel a whole lot more confident about the secondary than I did back before spring practice.
But the offense has a lot of question marks and is very thin at key positions. As my son put it, “the O-line is a scooter accident away from disaster.” The Dogs also are ridiculously shy of depth and experience at running back, and while the talent looks promising at receiver, a step down in production there sort of has to be expected with the departure of A.J. Green and Kris Durham. Plus, of course, the Dogs still have hot-and-cold Mike Bobo calling the plays.
So I’m expecting Georgia to wind up 9-3.
Here’s why: I see the Dogs splitting those tough first two games. No, I wouldn’t be shocked if they won them both or lost them both, but I don’t think that’s going to happen. Then comes a stretch of five games where Georgia ought to be the favorite every week. However, the pessimist in me sees them losing one game they shouldn’t this season and it’ll probably be in Knoxville. Finally, I think Georgia likely will lose to either Florida or Auburn, but not both. Again, at this point it looks like the Dogs ought to be favored in both of those games but Jacksonville is still Jacksonville, and Auburn-Georgia is always tough.
I’ll admit I flirted with 10-2 again while reading about how his teammates all say Isaiah Crowell is the real deal. But I also gave serious consideration to 8-4 as I watched Georgia’s depth get downright precarious at several positions over the past few months.
How satisfying would a 9-3 season be? Well, a win over either Boise State or South Carolina would look awfully good. And if one of those nine victories is over the Gators, I don’t think there’d be too much reason for grumbling, even if Georgia doesn’t make it to the SEC championship.
Anyway, that’s what I’ve been telling all the folks who ask me how the Dogs are going to do. Feel free to join me out on that limb with your own season predictions.
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238 comments Add your comment
CHDawg
August 31st, 2011
12:17 pm
04–your twin brother is following you around again. People are down on Richt, but he knows what he is doing! He is a winner, and he is more determined than ever. I wouldn’t sell him short. IMO, Bobo does tend to strongly follow his own tendencies, but I think the last couple of years have taught him a lot. He has manufactured a lot of points without a running game, so assuming we have a strong running game, he will really shine. He will just need to avoid falling into his, I’m ahead by two TD pattern. He needs keep the opposing DCs on roller skates, and I think he could come out of this year at the top of the OC heap. We’ll see.
Lindsey
August 31st, 2011
12:22 pm
12-0!!!! Can’t wait to order my early Christmas present, SEC Championship tickets, GO DAWGS!!!!
players vs coaches
August 31st, 2011
12:22 pm
UGA has the talent, albeit thin in places, to be great this year. Defense will the story week after week.
Offensive will get better as the weeks pass. We split the first to games and go into Jax on a win streak. That will be a toss-up.
*If the coaching has not improved, these players cannot win the big games. Injuries are always the wild card for all teams.
BigRedandBlackDAWG
August 31st, 2011
12:23 pm
have i been banned for being too optimistic?
Utah Dawg
August 31st, 2011
12:25 pm
UGA wins 10 or 11 if they beat BSU..8 if they do not. The story will be in the trenches against BSU. UGA outweighs them between 20-50 lbs. across both lines. Watch the first two BSU possessions for an indicator of how the game will go. If UGA shuts them down in convincing fashion with swarming and overwhelming speed and physical play, then game over. I see a GA team with new blood that wants to return to the national spotlight. This is the perfect game to state the case. Even though the squad will depend upon younger players, these guys coming from winning programs and are accustomed to high levels of success. They will not be intimidated by the moment. GA wins 31-14.
AceDawg
August 31st, 2011
12:35 pm
We should be pessimistic that the lights were turned on after two rough campaigns the last two years, but then again, what did UGA have when it was at its best under Richt’s early years? It had strong leadership at QB with David Greene and reliability despite only average offensive performance. (With Aaron Murray, we’ve got more talent and potential for the same leadership). It had an aggressive, awesome defense under Van Gorder (Grantham has the pedigree and aggressive spirit). Assuming the defense takes flight this year, how can a team with a strong defense and a leader like Aaron Murray not be able to compete for the SEC championship? Injuries might be a concern, but let’s at least wonder what the real ceiling is for this team if things go right. There is a talent base at UGA conducive to winning – including against the much ballyhooed SEC West.
tide roll
August 31st, 2011
12:36 pm
Georgia needs to get rid of these good ole boy assistant coaches like Bobo and Friend. Get up to speed damnit. Hire some sharp young African American coaches that can help you. Enough of these guys that spit tobacco juice all over everybody.
Columbus Dawg
August 31st, 2011
12:37 pm
When Georgia has a formidable team it usually plays up to it’s competition. I personally think that it is best that teams like SC and MS have teams that are better than they usually are, for one thing, if they don’t lose before Georgia plays them them then they are ranked higher, which helps the Dawgs cause if they are successful against them. Same with Tennesee. Georgia needs the Vols to be successful in their early going so that if they can get a win in Knoxville that it will mean something in the polls. Personally, I don’t think that the Dawgs could ask for a better situation. They got a break with the Coach’s Poll coming out ranked even though they had a losing season last year. They play two top ten teams to start, so as to be in a position to climb the poll ladder early providing they beat these teams. Also, people may not remember, but when SC had George Rogers they were at that time considered to have their “Best team ever” back then as well. Guess what, the Dawgs prevailed.
DAWGS BACK ON TOP IN 2011!!!!!
dmr
August 31st, 2011
12:37 pm
Effort, energy, and discipline. That’s what I am looking for first. The talent is there, although thin at positions, as it has been pointed out. I think our defense will be quantum leaps better than last year from an understanding perspective, even though we lost some talent there as well.
This Georgia team should be able to play a “ball control” offense. Work the clock, quick hitters in the passing game, and a running game that should be sufficient for now. Murray should be able to manage the game. Our special teams can pin people deep if we use the “coffin corner”. Touchdowns before field goals, but we can hit the long one if needed.
Georgia’s defense will actually be the key to this season. Stuffing the run, blitzing from all directions, knowing assignments, playing under control. If the “D” can get teams off the field, I think we can beat others by wearing them down and forcing long drives. Turnovers are always an issue. We have to create many and give up few.
I like this team. Bobo has a lot to prove. If the talent isn’t there, he must be patient and creative. If the talent is there, he cannot call 3 and 11 draw plays.
9 – 3 with a chance to blow through that mark with a 2 – 0 start. Here’s hoping.
tide roll
August 31st, 2011
12:40 pm
Also Rodney garner is worth about twice as much as you’re paying him.Uga salaries are way too top heavy toward Richt and Grantham, especially Richt. For holding himself out as this big Christian, he sure hoards a lot, especially relative to what his assistants are making.
outkasted
August 31st, 2011
12:43 pm
11-2 then a bowl game
Columbus Dawg
August 31st, 2011
12:44 pm
TIDE ROLL, UGA has plenty of black asst. coaches, and there is no reason to believe that UGA hires on basis of race. Now that being said, it is obvious that your posts are typed on basis of race. That coupled with your sheer stupidity should be enough to get you banned from these blogs, in a perfect world. Just sayin.
Dirty Dawg
August 31st, 2011
12:47 pm
Bill, what is it with you and Bobo? Did he run over your dog or something? Or perhaps one of the guys you ask opinions of before you ‘go out on a limb’ with your comments tells you anybody from ‘below the gnat-line’ doesn’t know from shinola?
Face it, the one question mark that we need to have answered in the affirmative is ‘Is the defense as good as we think/hope/predict it will be? I mean a defense that can end up being talked about in the same breath as Alabama’s. If it is then I like our chances to be just as good as ‘Lady Luck’ will allow us to be, cause we’ll be ‘in’ every game – much as we were last year, by the way – and with our ’special team’ play and a quarterback that has shown he’s more than capable, I like our chances – a lot.
Hey ‘rayban’…be sure never to allow a ‘real’ Bulldog fan to know who you really are, cause you’ll be wearin’ those ‘raybans’ where the sun don’t shine…and ‘2004′, you ain’t even ‘dry behind the ears’ yet, so there’s no way you know ‘from shinola’ either.
If we win the first two games – and I certainly believe we can – then who’s to say we can’t ‘win ‘em all’? Why the hell not…who’s gonna be tougher than them? Sure, like too many, so-called, Dawg fans posting here, if you go into the season with low expectations you won’t be as disappointed – plus you can keep on blaming Richt – but I figure that I can deal with whatever disappointment comes my way, so why not ‘expect the best’ and be rewarded for it…it’s so much more fun than being ‘pleasantly surprised’.
The Most Interesting Man in the World
August 31st, 2011
12:47 pm
I expect an undefeated season this year. How’s that? The only game UGA should be an underdog, is in the SEC Championship. I can rationalize losing that one, but every game leading up to that one, UGA should win. That doesn’t mean they will, which will probably lead to me throwing a nutty a few times this year. Underachievement seems to be the standard in recent years.
Lowcountry Bulldawg
August 31st, 2011
12:47 pm
Tide Roll was hating on Friend who is a Bammer Alum? Shows you this guy is not a Bammer guy, but a Yech in disguise.
allwehaveishope
August 31st, 2011
12:51 pm
My heart says UGA wins at least 10 but my gut feels 8-4 may be more realistic. The decline of the past several seasons w/the talent they had leaves too many question marks on how this season will turn out. UGA’s performance in the first two games will tell whether this years version of CMR’s team will erase all doubts of seasons past or confirm our worst fears that UGA cannot be a winner w/the current coaching staff, especially if they stumble againt MSU, FL or TN.
The Dawgs have to win to keep the ghosts of seasons past from haunting us all over again.
UGA Alumnus
August 31st, 2011
12:56 pm
Just like most every season, we’ll win some and we’ll lose some.
The point is to have fun and enjoy the ride; win, lose, or draw.
Do yourself a favor and get notions of national championships and SEC championships out of your head.
Determine that you’re just going to enjoy watching your Dawgs play some football.
It’ll make your life a whole lot easier and more enjoyable in the fall season.
Go Dawgs!!!
Columbus Dawg
August 31st, 2011
1:00 pm
If Coach Richt can instill the one game at a time attitude in this team like he did in his most successful seasons in Athens then the sky is the limit for this team. I truly believe that every new player on the field for UGA will be an upgrade. Yes A.J. was talented, but he was a “me” player. UGA will have plenty of success in it’s passing game without him, wait and see.
On the D side of the ball, I do believe that the swarming will return that has been sorely missed since Van Gorder left.
rabundog
August 31st, 2011
1:03 pm
Agree with you Bill – hope we’ll win at least 8 or 9 – would be GREAT if one of those wins was in J’ville
NOBODYYOUKNOW
August 31st, 2011
1:04 pm
GOOOOOOOOOO JAWJA! Don’t know how they’ll do, but I’m gonna be glued to the T.V. No other conference in the country has better football than the S.E.C. I wish someone would paint the feild RED.
WDE
August 31st, 2011
1:06 pm
@UGA Alumnus great idea! I think I’ll follow your lead in this matter. Go Dawgs!
Lowcountry Bulldawg
August 31st, 2011
1:08 pm
UGA Alumnus,
Very well said!
Athdawg
August 31st, 2011
1:11 pm
Let’s just hope the Dawgs try something new this year……like…….
1. Try to block a punt
2. Try to fake a field goal
3. Try to fake a punt
4. Try to use clock management with 2 minutes before half time.
5. Use the no-huddle to disrupt the defensive timing.
Swampdawg
August 31st, 2011
1:11 pm
The last couple of years the Dawgs looked and played like Grambling on the field. They still look like Grambling, I just hope they can play like Georgia. Last year was very embarassing to the Dog Nation especially with that Libery Bowl loss. I think the Dog Nation by-in-large is expecting too much this year too. I think 7 – 8 wins is more realistic. Still have an awful lot of maturing to do. Too many boys on the team!
jr
August 31st, 2011
1:18 pm
DD, the thing with people and Bobo is his inability to provide a consistent offense, even with 1st-round NFL talent.
When Bubba and Cletus can sit on the sofa and predict at 90% what play Bobo is going to call, you can bet your a** that SEC defensive coordinators can, as well. Relying on the defense to cover for predictable playcalling isn’t going to work in the SEC. 6-7 wasn’t a fluke, it was Bobo coming into his own as OC. I think we drop the first 2 and go on to a 7-5 season with losses to Bama, Auburn and UT. I think we will beat UF this year, since with 5 other losses the win won’t mean anything except for the once-a-decade opportunity to beat our chests.
UGADawg83
August 31st, 2011
1:20 pm
My prediction-Bill will continue to write inane blogs based on the opinion of his brother, his son, his buddies and the guy at Jiffy Lube.
WDE
August 31st, 2011
1:24 pm
@UGADawg83 my prediction is you keep reading them and complaining…
Charles
August 31st, 2011
1:26 pm
I just think 9-3 would be too good of a season…
rational
August 31st, 2011
1:26 pm
I would say 8-4 at best. I don’t think you can jump from 6-7 to 9-3 that easily, especially after losing most of your best offensive players. Even with the joke of a schedule UGA has this year, I think 8-4 is being generous. 9-3 is bordering on delusional. Anything higher and I would assume you are drunk.
Coach Richt
August 31st, 2011
1:26 pm
I am predicting 3 wins as “THE SEASON IS NOT RIDING ON THE FIRST NINE GAMES”!
Spike 80DF
August 31st, 2011
1:30 pm
@sogadog, agree with your prediction exactly. 9-3 with losses to USCe, UT, and UF. probably in the outback bowl or something similar.
but, i think the team has a LOT of upside so anything is possible…
Boise Dawg
August 31st, 2011
1:30 pm
Win or lose I think the Boise State game helps us. It may be a coincidence, but it is interesting that both Oregon and Virginia Tech lost their opener to Boise State and went on to win their conference championship. Boise State plays football the way it should be played… they have a swarming defense that flies to the ball on every play and an offense that really knows how to mix it up and keep teams off balance. Win or lose, I hope the Georgia players learn something from these 2 star recruits about heart and effort that will help us througout the rest of the season.
Athens Dawg
August 31st, 2011
1:30 pm
Damn how many running backs does the average college team have? 20? We’re not lacking depth there. All SEC teams have at least 2 backs that can get it done. So do we. Samuel is an experienced back who has only gotten bigger, only gotten faster and is more knowledgeable than he was 2 seasons ago. Crowell will shock a lot of people with what he’s able to do. I think Malcome can play a role. Maybe get a few runs here and there. We have backs, experienced? Not quite, but we have bodies. So therefore depth shouldn’t be the question. Experience, yes.
lanier
August 31st, 2011
1:34 pm
the dawgs are gonna do 9-3
Athens Dawg
August 31st, 2011
1:35 pm
And another thing I don’t get is why people question our WR corp. We have tons of depth at the WR position believe it or not. King, Brown, Wooten, Troupe, Mitchell, Bennett, Seay, Conley, etc. Not to mention our TEs with Charles, White, and Lynch. We have plenty of guys that can catch the ball and move the chains. That’s all it takes. Just move the chains. We’re fine at WR and TE.
As far as the O-line, those guys are tired of all the talk about how bad they are. They’re great football players with great technique. Our starting 5 can be one of the best in the SEC. It’s the bodies behind them. Question the depth of the O-line, not the starting 5 we have now. They can get it done, and they will get it done this season. We have two All-SEC performers with Jones and Glenn, two potential All-SEC talents with Gates and Burnette, and we have a solid road grader and mauler in Justin Anderson. We’re fine people.
Athens Dawg
August 31st, 2011
1:43 pm
I don’t know, but something about this team is just different from teams in the past. It’s the attitude, it’s the drive, it’s the cohesiveness. They seem bonded together.
ROLL TIDE TOILET PAPER
August 31st, 2011
1:44 pm
I am sick of race being brought into everything, you are paid based on experience and knowledge not the color of your skin!!! Now I’m tired of all you Richt haters I hope UGA goes 12-0 plays for the National championship and maybe wins it! And as far as CMR’S faith he only has to answer to GOD above not any of you moron’s and just maybe you understand we were put here to do something other than win footbal games, maybe turn around a 17 or 18 year old who has no Father!!! Go DAWGS!! By the way Roll TIDE, go put your two teeth back in and take care of your wife, I mean your sister!!!
gbal
August 31st, 2011
1:59 pm
I dont quite understand folks comments about an easy schedule or “joke of a schedule. Could it be harder…. well heck heay it could be. Could have 10 top 10’s on the schedule but BS, SC, to open. UF, AU, MS, UT. Evern Vandy and UK and others (GT) … nothing is a sure win.
Hey, this is no easy schedule and if our team thinks it is we are liable to be in trouble.
positive thinking!!!…. We beat BS and SC and that changes our whole programs attitue… realize that we have potential and go on a roll….. All in attitude. Develop that attitude during the first to games and we have turned the corner.
Get hammered those first two and we have another 2010 attitude and are in trouble. I say this aint happening.
Go DAWGS
King Gator
August 31st, 2011
2:00 pm
8-4 / 7-5ish, as average as grits..but consistant. Florida over the Dawgs as usual. Go Gators!
80 Dawg
August 31st, 2011
2:01 pm
Second year for the new defense, second year for Murry, first year the defense will have the right players where they need to be , a faster and talented secondary, great running backs, and I know im going to slammed for this BUT a group of very fast and talented WRs that are better than last year as a group. The offensive line is a little scary.
Beat Boise in the dome, we will beat South Car. If I remember didnt we fumble on the goal line twice in that game last year against SC? Plus that was are first true game with the 3-4?
Win the first two games we will go undefeated !!!! we meet Ala. for the SEC championship then I think it will be a coin toss. But watch out for Miss. St.
I maybe out of bounce but i really think we have that good of a team!! then we wont have to listen to ESPN’s Herbstriet {sp} praise how good Ohio St. and put down the DAWGS
80 Dawg
August 31st, 2011
2:02 pm
gba,l you are right on the money!!!
King Gator
August 31st, 2011
2:04 pm
the Dawgs will not lose to UCF in the Liberty Bowl – I’m sure they would decline the invitation before ever letting that happen again. Go Gators!
DawginLex
August 31st, 2011
2:11 pm
Tennessee 20
florida 17
Kentucky 31
Florida 30
http://www.firemuschamp.com cranks at full force
gbal
August 31st, 2011
2:12 pm
Thanks 80 ….
This time of year opinions are like Ahol… everyone has one and most stink.
Tee ‘em up and we’ll see after game 1&2.
april in chicago=august in athens
August 31st, 2011
2:12 pm
the cubs are in the world series and the dawgs are playing for the NC.
Vance Duly
August 31st, 2011
2:15 pm
Here’s my 8-Point Bobo Test, to see if he’s going to be better this year:
1. Murray throws incomplete on 1st down. 75% of the time, if the next play is a draw for 2 yards or less, Bobo’s the same.
2. If it’s 3rd & 12, and Georgia runs more than 2-3 draw plays all season, nothing has changed.
3. If Georgia is ahead by 14, and the offense shrinks into a turtle shell, we still have no killer instinct on offense.
4. If a certain aspect of the Georgia offense is unstoppable, do we continue emphasizing it until stopped, or does Coach Bobo stop it on his own? (ex: Tech last year, Kentucky in 2009)
5. Does Orson Charles average no more than 2 touches per game again, and the other TEs 1 touch per game combined? If so, nothing has changed.
6. Now that Carlton Thomas is only the SECOND-smallest back on the team (Harton is smaller), how many times is Thomas/Harton sent up the middle to be decapitated for a 1 yard gain, at best?
7. How many innovative wrinkles do we add to our offense this year? (when switched back to TB, Samuel said “no problem – nothing has changed.”) Will there be some no-huddle? Will Brandon Smith or Boykin or Nick Marshall be used creatively when put on offense, or just stuck in that stupidly named “Wild Dawg” formation, just to run the ball in a purely predictable fashion?
8. In an obvious long-yard passing situation, does he have Murray using play-action fakes that simply delay the QB getting into the pocket and having time to view his options downfield?
Coach Bobo doesn’t have to change in all 8 aspects, but if he doesn’t adjust in at least a couple of these areas, it could be another frustrating season. It’s not about average points per game, it’s about scoring enough in each game to win, whatever that number of points may be. GO DAWGS!
tony
August 31st, 2011
2:18 pm
As usual, poor playcalling and poor game management could shatter our season. However, if we wound up in the top 20 in rush offense and with a top ten total defense, we could go unbeaten this season…..but the problem with that scenario is that Mark Richt hasn’t had a top 20 rush offense since he became the hc. If he expect to go unscathed in the sec its important for him to have a good rush offense because it’s very difficult to pass against a sec defense.
AUB, ALA, FL and LSU all had a top 20 rush offense when they won the NC.
The Dawgs Rush Offense
2001 Rank 50th
2002 Rank 67th
2003 Rank 74th
2004 Rank 57th
2005 Rank 43rd
2006 Rank 71st
2007 Rank 37th
2008 Rank 56th
2009 Rank 47th
2010 Rank 73rd
Coach I know you use to be the QB at Miami, QB coach at FSU and you probably just like to see the ball flying in the air, but you need to run the ball more……at least 600 carries a season.
Abnerish
August 31st, 2011
2:20 pm
I disagree with Richt and think that this first game COULD decide the whole season. If the Dawgs come out and lay an egg against BSU, then the team could fold up and lose any optimism it had coming into the year. It will definitely fire up the firericht crowd for sure. I hope that doesn’t happen and I dn’t think it will, but I also didn’t think that Bama would be up 31-0 in the first half against us in 2008. We are far more likely to get blown out than to blow them out. Past history proves it (and not just that 08 Bama game).
However, if we can dominate this game and create some positive momentum going into the SC game and beyond, then I think the sky’s the limit. That’s why I think this first game is so important.
Dawgstyle86
August 31st, 2011
2:22 pm
OldFan might have something here, and if so, it’s time for CMR to go! Then we can get us a real offensive mind (Gus Malzahn) and someone that wants to be a HEAD COACH.
59bulldawg
August 31st, 2011
2:22 pm
Let’s just say I’m cautiously optimistic that we’re gonna have a good season.