Should Mark Richt’s job ride on winning the SEC East?
Predictions about what it will take to save Mark Richt's job are all over the place. (AJC file)
While we brace ourselves for the inevitable new round of Mark-Richt-on-the-hot-seat talk with the arrival of the SEC’s annual media days, it’s interesting to see the way expectations of what Richt needs to do to keep his job vary.
Recently we discussed here how many wins we thought Richt needed to get this season to keep his job, and the consensus appears to be that 10 wins was a sure thing, nine probably would save him and if it was eight, it would depend on whether that number included a victory over Florida.
But while South Carolina appears still to be most prognosticators’ favorite to win the SEC East, Georgia has popped up in quite a few predictions as the dark horse to take the division, and CollegeFootball News even goes so far as to posit that if the Dogs don’t win the East, Richt won’t be back.
Their all-or-nothing reasoning goes like this: “The timing couldn’t be better to come out of the blue and be a major player in the SEC. Florida probably has one more year before it becomes a monster again, Tennessee is still sleeping, and South Carolina, as good as it is, is still South Carolina; there’s going to be a gaffe or two along the way. Georgia might have a ton of flaws, and it might be relying on a slew of unknowns to carry the way, but the East is never going to get easier than it is right now, and Richt has to take advantage. … No, Georgia won’t be 2010 Auburn, but it could rise up and be good enough to win the East and play for the SEC title. And if not, next year will be all about a new era in Georgia football.”
Summing up its preview of Georgia, CFN says, “The season will be a success if … the Dawgs win the East. When you miss the three best teams from the West — Alabama, LSU, and Arkansas — and get South Carolina, Mississippi State, and Auburn at home, you have to take advantage of it. There are major holes on the offensive line, receiver, and linebacker, but the schedule is favorable, the influx of new talent should be a boost, and the desperation is there to win the East. Winning the SEC title is a stretch considering how good the West champion will be, but getting to the title game will be enough for Richt to stick around.”
At the other extreme, the Macon Telegraph asks whether Richt’s recruiting prowess and the commitments he keeps snagging might not be enough for him to keep his job even if the Dogs have another subpar year on the field, simply because a coaching change might send some of those recruits elsewhere.
I’m not buying either of those scenarios.
While winning the SEC East would surely boost Richt’s stock quite a bit, I don’t believe his job is riding on it. At the same time, if the wheels come off and Georgia has a disaster of a season, I don’t think nonbinding verbal commitments from some blue-chip recruits who may or may not pan out down the road are going to be enough to save Richt. That will still come down to wins and losses.
What do you think?
SILVER LINING
While I’m dismayed yet another Georgia running back has gotten himself in trouble, I have to admit the first thought I had when I heard Carlton Thomas likely won’t be playing against Boise State was that at least Mike Bobo won’t be tempted to run him up the middle on third-and-long.
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397 comments Add your comment
PMC
July 20th, 2011
11:54 am
Ultimately I’d rather see him keep his job. The dicipline has been an issue, but I think it’s worth giving him a chance to correct these systemic issues.
RxDawg
July 20th, 2011
11:55 am
“There are major holes on the offensive line, receiver, and linebacker”
Agreed, agreed, and wth? You think they meant RB?
DawginLex
July 20th, 2011
11:57 am
1953Dawg
You should go talk to my UT friends who to this day regret running Phil Fulmer out of town.
Brought in hot shot Lane Kiffin and got crapped on by him.
Now left with hiring a coach from La Tech with a losing record and the program is years away from being where fulmer had it.
That could be us if McGarity isn’t careful in going about the business of making this decision.
JDawg1785
July 20th, 2011
11:58 am
That’s how I see it, Lex. If Richt isn’t the guy, who is?
SSIgator
July 20th, 2011
12:00 pm
Since the thrust of the article is the SEC East, let’s take a look at what da Preacha Man has done in the last five years since he last won it. SEC East opponents 2006-2010: Won 13 – Lost 12. WOW. This is what UGA pays someone over $15,000,000 in a five year period to achieve? The picture with this article says it all, “I know what the hell I am doing” Yep. He sure does. Masquerading as a head football coach while ripping off UGA and laughing all of the way to the bank in his Ford truck and yelling out the window, “See ya later suckers”. What a guy. UGA fans and Richt deserve each other. Frankly, I hope you never fire him.
Tightend
July 20th, 2011
12:02 pm
I think he has done a great recruiting job. A 9 win season or a top 25 finish should by him time. I honestly think should be given the chance to finish coaching Murrays career.
Beast from the East
July 20th, 2011
12:03 pm
“Richt faced Tebow. Meyer won titles because of Tebow and ran for the hills after Tim left. Florida won’t win another title without him. He is their Herschel.”
DawginLex,
Pretty bold statement. UF won in ‘96 without Tebow, had a shot in ‘95. Won in ‘06 with Tebow as nothing more than a role player. According to most Dawgs, Tebow was way overrated and an average QB at best. Was he as great as Hershel and that’s the only reason UF won or were those titles won by great teams with an average QB?
I say those titles were won by great teams with a great QB (in ‘08) and great coaching. The only times I’ve ever felt like one player was the absolute difference in a team winning it all was when UGA had Hershel and last year with Cam. Tebow was great, but so were his teammates. Think about it: Harvin, Spikes, Hernandez, Moss, Cooper, Dunlap, Pouncey(s), Haden, etc. Great TEAM.
slydog
July 20th, 2011
12:05 pm
sorry but yes it should. even with injuries or dismissals. he has been in place the longest, with the the amount of talent he has amassed, to not win it all at least once. save the stats. the florida series has just gotten so out of hand to the point hardly anyone, outside of a UGA Alumni, remembers we still own the series. At this point, the UGA program is VIEWED no better than Arkansas. On top of that, Arkansas arguably has the better Head Coach. Is Les Miles better on gameday than Richt? this should not have been a question 3 yrs ago. Don’t bother with the stats and the coaching record. Has any Mark Richt team ever felt like national championship contenders? the ones that did got popped by florida or finished 11-2 in 2007. We have the 7th or 8th best OC in the conference and he continues to let him call senseless plays. again, save the stats. Look at mike martz. no one questions his offensive now how. His play calling and use of personnel is his downfall. At least he won a super bowl. Richt should have been more proactive and hired Weiss as soon as he got fired from notre dame or soon after last season. he did, after all, admit that he started supervising more than coaching. and the blowouts? its embarrassing how soft this team is. no tough team gets blown out on a regular basis. CMR is like that gorgeous female you date, who is so smart and savvy, but she costs too much and is lazy. you want her there so bad but you just can’t get over the top. i believe he should be fired sooner rather than later. what if he wins the east or the sec and nothing else? That’s like target vs walmart.
Bryan G.
July 20th, 2011
12:05 pm
BMDPD said “CMR is a fine coach. He has had some bad luck. We never get blown out. Hopefully, the changes in the S&C program will turn the close game tide in our advantage.”
Never get blown out? So, the Alabama and Florida games in 2008 that I left at halftime for never actually happened? Because was got shelled.
Tennessee 2009? Tennessee 2007? Tennessee 2006? Florida 2009? LSU 2003 in the Dome?
Van Gorder was a good coach. Save for 2007, we have not been the same since he left.
gomdawg
July 20th, 2011
12:05 pm
Bill, you have not wrote about anything postive this so if you can’t write about something then don’t write. A DAWG FAN
gomdawg
July 20th, 2011
12:08 pm
Something postive please, CMR is a great Coach and I’m proud we have him, WHO IN THE HELL WOULD YOU REPLACE HIM WITH
JB
July 20th, 2011
12:09 pm
David Granger @ 11:28….great post my friend. You really nailed it.
I posted this the other day, and we all have our opinions, but two things really stick out in my mind for the 3 year slide. Richt’s poor hiring choices in Assit coach’s and his refusing to change and adapt. The last two changes ( Grantham&S&C) were McGarity driven, IMO.
chazzo
July 20th, 2011
12:10 pm
What most fans really want, including pro-Richt fans like myself, is for UGA to beat five teams in the same year: SC, UT, UF, AU, and GT. That would pretty much mean winning the East.
That being said, in my opinion and apparently McGarrity’s, there is not necessarily a magical benchmark to meet. I think it is much more dependent upon the team is prepared and performing well in losses and wins. That is not to say that any needs to make excuses. Take the AU game last year, considering AU was the undeniable best team in the country, I thought UGA played admirably. I would never say that about the UCF game.
DawginLex
July 20th, 2011
12:11 pm
Beast
SOS won in 1996 by default. He lost the last game of the year and got a rematch. That is 1 title to offset 1980 for us
2006-Leak w/o Tebow and you lose 2 more games
2008-Tebow won it
Your defense was good but Tebow was the difference maker
Tebow was your Herschel
I have said it for 5 years
JB
July 20th, 2011
12:11 pm
gomdawg, you’re kidding, right?
1. Patterson at TCU
2. Peterson from Boise, maybe
3.Mullin from MS ST.
I could live with any of those.
chazzo
July 20th, 2011
12:15 pm
JB, with all due respect, Grantham came in (1/2009) before McGarrity (10/2010). It is therefore impossible for McGairrity to be responsible for that hire. Also, Tereshinski, the new head of the S&C has been around forever. I think you oversimplify things a good bit.
Lowcountry Bulldawg
July 20th, 2011
12:18 pm
@ David Grangers post
Your #2- Actually look like they are prepared for the game.
That is so embarassing to read, but very true. After 10 years we have to wonder what UGA team is going to show up for the toughest games of the year. This is a huge problem. Do you think Bama, Florida, LSU or Auburn fans from last season had to wonder whether or not the team was going to show up and knock someones teeth in?
The issue at hand is the perceived softness of this team, a finesse team. UGA seems to lack a identity offensively and defensively. When was the last time we saw a UGA team lineup against a SEC top tier team and just dominate both sides of the ball in the trenches?
Your #2 post can really show in many different aspects the problems CMR has to address. Words can only do so much his actions on the field really need to show that he has found that edge he lost. The program has lost its edge as a result and no longer is held with the same esteem it was held at in his first 6-7 years in Athens.
Beast from the East
July 20th, 2011
12:19 pm
DawginLex,
I have to disagree. Who knows what Meyer would have done differently in ‘06 w/out Tebow? In ‘08, he was a beast, but it was the “D” that beat SC and OSU……not Tebow. The “D” was the difference IMO.
Paul H
July 20th, 2011
12:20 pm
Bill, I thought the exact same thing with the news about Thomas. At least there won’t be any called up the middle plays on 3rd and long with our smallest back on the team.
BMDPD
July 20th, 2011
12:22 pm
The last thing I ever want to see is the spread at UGA.
PMC
July 20th, 2011
12:24 pm
2007 was an outlier due to offensive prowess. They still lost several games that year in embarassing fashion. The team hasn’t been solid on offense and defense since 2005. The defense has primarily been a big problem since 2005 and the other huge issue is an average offensive line. Same time period.
Max Gene Gilles isn’t walking through that door.
Athens= God's Country
July 20th, 2011
12:25 pm
No.
JB
July 20th, 2011
12:26 pm
Aaron to Orson Charles is pretty lethal. youtube some of Murray last year and watch those two work. Charles will have to be double teamed which will open up some things. We do have a lot of positives this year, if fact more than negatives. If the OL can stay healthy, they will be fine. I do hope our DB’s hit and tackle better this year We have got to plug the middle with Jenkins and Geathers. The middle was a big hole last year for any RB to expose..
Dawg Tell
July 20th, 2011
12:28 pm
I will say it again,Richt is not on the hot seat this season!! 8 and 4 he will still be at UGA. 7 wins or less,with losing to Fla. or GT will cause heartburn with key people at UGA.Than you will see the burners turned on the stove for next season.We may not win but 8 games this year,but I hear that we will be a different team on Sept 3.New attitude and playing physical football.7 wins are less the wheels start coming off.
Athens= God's Country
July 20th, 2011
12:43 pm
Its time to get on board. This team will be much improved this year. 2012 and 2013 is a very real possibility to win a NC. Support your coaches and the team. Is that too much to ask? We are all Bulldogs FIRST. Support the team until changes are made and then continue to support them. Some of the so called fans on here definitely do not bleed Red & Black. Its pathetic.
Win with Richt. Go Dawgs!
JB
July 20th, 2011
12:43 pm
Darn…………..TEST
chazzo
July 20th, 2011
12:49 pm
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8QfSRUk0fuA&feature=related
chazzo
July 20th, 2011
12:50 pm
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CrP0UdJY-lI&feature=related
cantondawg
July 20th, 2011
12:52 pm
Why aren’t people vilifying Saban for the 3 losses Bama suffered last year? They were pre-season #1 and lost 3 times. To me, that’s horrible coaching.
chazzo
July 20th, 2011
12:52 pm
Auburn will get all that they deserve.
chazzo
July 20th, 2011
1:02 pm
Hard evidence how Murray padded his stats in big games:
vs. East champ SC (1st real game of Murray’s career): 14/21/0 192 yds.
vs. #12 Arky (2nd real game of Murray’s career): 21/33/0 380 yds.
vs. MSU: 18/31/0 274 yds.
vs. UT: 17/25/1 260 yds.
vs. UF: 18/27/1 219 yds.
vs. #1 AU: 15/28/0 273 yds. (see video posted above)
vs. GT: 15/19/0 271 yds.
cantondawg
July 20th, 2011
1:02 pm
It’s unbelievable how some of these so-called UGA fans seem to have a vendetta against CMR. Evidently, you have forgotten how it was before he came along and we didn’t even sniff a SEC Championship for twenty years. CMR won 2 SECC in 5 years and has finished #2 and #3 in the nation with six top 10 finishes. Some of these idiots on here say that he cannot coach. Look at his record and it says differently. Sure the last two years have been disappointing but that happens to all coaches.
chazzo
July 20th, 2011
1:03 pm
Cantondawg: I agree. Saban should be on the hot seat, definitely. (and he lost to AU.)
chazzo
July 20th, 2011
1:05 pm
Cantondawg: Amen. If a coach is creating a realistic contender finishing in the top 5 every four or five years, he is doing what he is supposed to do. We need to leave him alone.
allwehaveishope
July 20th, 2011
1:05 pm
This years version of the Dawgs fb team has already started w/too many lows, woes and ???’s and they haven’t played their 1st game yet. BSU and SC are good teams and return most of their best players from last season. Kellen Moore is better passer than our secondary is at stopping him. Same w/SC Q!B and that big receiver they have. Its very possible GA comes out of its 1st 2 games 0-2. Unless the DC unleashes the Dawgs front of jenkins and Gathers to disrupt both opposing QB’s is going to play large for UGA to win either one or both of these 2 games.
Gruff
July 20th, 2011
1:07 pm
Murray to Charles–LETHAL? Uh, 26 passes, 2 td’s. Lethal is Garcia to Jeffery.
schmeckdawg
July 20th, 2011
1:08 pm
Come on DAWG Nation Beano Cook has us playing Oklahoma for the National Championship, why all of the gloom and doom!
Gruff
July 20th, 2011
1:11 pm
Murray threw 18 of his 24 td’s against teams with losing records. He definately padded his td stats.
slydog
July 20th, 2011
1:13 pm
people keep talking about the past. its real simple: in today’s time, WE WILL NOT BE ABLE TO ATTRACT, RECRUIT, OR SIGN ELITE PLAYERS, EXCEPT LEFTOVERS, if we continue down this half-way road. Is this UGA or Miss. ST. I am sick and tired of every surrounding state, except our own, winning with our players. players today want to win, win now, win big, and win it all. other than that, why go to UGA? just go to GA TECH (pun intended). 8-4 will not cut it unles it includes a championship. as far as who else will take this job: Charlie Strong, Dan Mullen, Gus Malzahn, Tommy Tuberville, maybe even Brain Van Gorder
Gruff
July 20th, 2011
1:16 pm
Here’s how I see it:
Averaged 15 points a game on offense against ranked teams in 2010. down from 35 a game in 07′ with Stafford & Moreno. Down every year by @7 points against ranked teams.
Lost top 2 receivers in Greeen & Durham, and top 2 backs in Ealey & King.
Drops to 8 points a game against ranked teams in 2011 & 1 point a game agaonst ranked teams if 2012 if Bobo stays.
Off Points vs. Ranked teams:
07′- 35
08′- 27
09′- 20
10′- 15
11′- 8
12′- 1
chazzo
July 20th, 2011
1:21 pm
Gruff, I hope you are wrong. I also hope that if you are wrong that you will be man enough to admit it.
Beast from the East
July 20th, 2011
1:23 pm
Gruff,
Those are interesting stats if they’re accurate, but I cannot fathom UGA or ANY top program only averaging 1 point per game against ranked teams. Heck, a field goal per game would triple that number.
Gruff
July 20th, 2011
1:27 pm
Win totals since 2007:
07- 11 wins
08- 9 wins
09- 8 wins
10- 6 wins
11- 4 wins?
12- 2 wins?
13- 0 wins?
Beast from the East
July 20th, 2011
1:29 pm
Gruff,
Now you’re just being crazy. NO WAY UGA is anywhere close to those few wins in ‘11, ‘12 or ‘13 no matter who the coach is. Too much talent.
chazzo
July 20th, 2011
1:29 pm
PS Gruff: I like how it suddenly just that he padded his TD stats now that I have blown 90% of that argument out of the water. So here goes the rest: TDs per game is a bogus stat that cannot be placed all on one player. Maybe he didn’t get pass plays called in red zone situations. Maybe they relied on a FG or a running play. Maybe they didn’t trust him early in the season with passes into the end zone.
Also think about your latest statistical farce: Of course, offensive scoring went down with the departure of Stafford, Moreno, and Masoqoui. Duh. They also played better defenses. They also had fist year starting QBs in ‘09 and ‘10.
I am not saying you are 100% wrong. I am saying that you are fallaciously drawing some very specific conclusions from some very general stats to support your prejudiced view.
Spike 80DF
July 20th, 2011
1:30 pm
Greg McGarity is making a ton of money to make this type of coaching decision, glad I don’t have to make it. He’s been around a long time watching Darth Foley so I have no doubt he’ll do what’s best for UGA.
That said, I want to see CMR get tougher this year than we’ve seen him in the past and win 10 games and keep his job. We don’t need a debacle like UT has had to endure the past few years.
UGA Alumnus
July 20th, 2011
1:32 pm
hey, bill, why isn’t my heartfelt post showing up?
Gruff
July 20th, 2011
1:32 pm
The offensive scoring stats against ranked teams are interesting, and accurate. I got em from cfb stats, just change the year at the top to see what Bobo averaged against ranked teams:
http://www.cfbstats.com/2010/leader/911/team/offense/split13/category09/sort01.html
07′- 35 points, 08′- 26 points, 09′- 20 points, 10′- 15 points
It’s an average of -7 per year over last 3 years in offensive scoring against ranked teams. It’s possible to drop to 8 points a game in 2011, and then on down to 1 point a game in 2012, that’s a field goal, every 3 games.
Bobo averages -7 points less per year against ranked teams last 3 years. So, although it seems hard to imagine, with Mike Bobo, it’s easy to achieve.
Gruff
July 20th, 2011
1:38 pm
The team has lost more games, 3 seasons in a row than the season before, from 11 wins down to 6, it’s an average drop of -1.6 wins per year since 2008. The team’s scoring against ranked teams under Bobo has decreased from 35 a game in 07 to 15 a game in 10′, an average drop of -6.7 points per game per year.
Whether your averaging -1.6 wins per year than the year before, or -6.7 points per game against ranked teams, it doesn’t bode well for the Richt’s future, that’s for sure. The team is heading in a terrible, terrible direction, and nothing Richt or Bobo has tried to fix it has worked.
sprouse27
July 20th, 2011
1:40 pm
He should win the SEC East or go some place else. And beat the Gators in the process.