Fan talk: How many wins gets Mark Richt off the ‘hot seat’?
While we cross our fingers and hope that the widespread rumors of academic casualties prove to be nothing more than midsummer fan paranoia, let’s check some Junkyard Mail …
UPDATE: The bad news about Caleb King is official now. He’s been declared academically ineligible. I’ll have more to say later. …
How many wins do the Dogs need to save Mark Richt's job? (Associated Press)
Frank Johnson writes: Seems like every time I get together with my Bulldog buddies, the subject comes up of Mark Richt being on the proverbial “hot seat” and just how many wins this season it will take to keep his job. Looking at the Dawgs’ schedule, I think anything less than 10 wins will be disappointing and grounds for dismissal. What say you?
Only Greg McGarity can possibly say what number of wins would assure Richt’s return and he might not even have made up his mind at this point. Some folks think an 0-2 start could make it tough for Richt to survive the whole season, but I frankly don’t think that’s even a possibility. He could lose the first two and still turn it around. Surely 10 wins guarantees Richt’s continued employment in Athens, but is there any way a 10-2 regular season could be disappointing? Well, if the two losses were to SEC East rivals South Carolina and Florida, I’m sure there’d be grumbling. Still, 10-2 means Richt isn’t going anywhere. Nine wins seems to be the consensus pick for the minimum Richt needs, but, again, it depends on the losses. If they’re blowouts to top rivals, a nine-win season might only lower the temperature a bit on the hot seat. I have heard people make the case that Richt can survive with just eight wins as long as one of them is over the Gators. What do you think? Even with a victory in Jacksonville, four losses still would mean the Dogs lost to someone they probably ought to beat this year.
Daniel Tuohy writes in response to my “numbers” piece the other day: Hi Bill, I’ve seen this “regression to the mean” idea all over the place, and people appear to be a bit confused (as is often the case when probability is involved). So you had this: “if you win or lose an unusually high number of close games in a season, the odds are that you’ll do the opposite the next season to get back to the mean.” That’s not quite right. The point is that in close games luck plays a very important role, and if you lose a whole bunch of them then you were very unlucky. That, however, in no way implies that the opposite will happen the next year (i.e. that you will win the majority of close games). Luck in one season is completely independent of luck in other seasons. The point is that relative to an unlucky season, any other season is likely to be better in comparison. That’s “regression to the mean.” The mean is winning 50% of your close games. So if we won 0% of our close games 2010, then if in 2011 we just hit the mean (not get lucky, just be average) we’ll win 50% of such games and have a much more attractive ledger come December — relative to 2010.
Thanks for the clarification. Yeah, I oversimplified the concept. But I warned you about me and math.
Marion Campbell writes in response to “101 Reasons to Be a UGA Fan”: Saw the listing and did not remember the “Cowboy” and “Moonpie.” Could you elaborate? I grew up in Clemson. My brother played for UGA. I lived in Athens for 10 years. You might find it interesting to know that Clemson’s R. C. Edwards, one time president, was often just called, “RC” and his wife was called “Moon Pie” in reference to the famous country snack duo.
Guard Joel “Cowboy” Parrish and tackle Mike “Moonpie” Wilson were starting offensive tackle and guard on Vince Dooley’s 1976 SEC championship team. Parrish got his nickname when he arrived in Athens as a freshman wearing a 10-gallon cowboy hat. Dan Magill tried to start a legend that Wilson ate moonpies by the carton, but the player really couldn’t stand them. He got the nickname from his round face. Both were All-Americans that season. Parrish played for the Dogs 1973-76 and was named the SEC’s outstanding lineman by the Atlanta Touchdown Club in 1977. He played some pro ball in Canada. Wilson lettered 1974-76. He went on to play with the Bengals and Seahawks and is in the Georgia Sports Hall of Fame. They were a terrific tandem on the OL. Said Dooley: “We never had a better blocking combination.” A favorite memory is from the 1976 win over Alabama. The Dogs were running the veer option using tailback Kevin McLee and two quarterbacks, Matt Robinson (the passer) and Ray Goff (the runner). The massive OL was so good that when Robinson misread a signal from the sideline and ran an option into the strong side of the Tide defense instead of the weak side as intended, he still ended up in the end zone. It was that kind of day.
Dan writes: Bill, Need to mention [South Carolina's win being the] third straight NCAA baseball title for SEC and ninth overall. ACC still has only one (Wake Forest 1955). Miami’s four titles came before they were in the ACC. Speaking of futility, what two schools have the most appearances in the college world series without a title? Answer: FSU with 20 and Clemson with 12. North Carolina with nine is only fourth in futility — GTU, who seems to lose to UGA in the super regionals, has only three appearances with, of course, 0 titles. That ACC sure is a powerful well-rounded conference!
SEC! SEC! Seriously, it might be slight consolation for the Diamond Dogs, but being the team that knocked the eventual College World Series champion out of the SEC tournament provides a notable asterisk to an up-and-down season.
Got a question for the Junkyard Blawg? Send it to junkyardblawg@gmail.com.
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340 comments Add your comment
DawginLex
July 8th, 2011
3:15 pm
Folks, I believe it to be obvious that anyone who trolls a UGA blog, calls himself the food lion bag boy and claims to be a florida fan ain’t too bright.
We should feel sorry for him and ignore him and move on.
Food Lion Bag Boy
July 8th, 2011
3:15 pm
WDE
LOL
Schooled again you must really live in the woods
30+ arrests in the last 4 yrs at UGA
Hmmm, Who’s been winning the Fulmer Cup oh yea UGA
Yea Ive been schooled by a moron
RedandBlackDAWG
July 8th, 2011
3:19 pm
Humm,
Reference C. King, we are now at updated plan number 5 for the coming season on the offense, LOL. It appears, once again that C. King has proven that you can be lazy and not succeed. I believe that CMR has got to cut him loose and put him off the team. He has shown by his actions tha he is not reliable and he has let down his team mates once again. I would guess he will not be a member of any NFL team in the future, so it is obvious, with all he had to lose, he just is either too lazy or doesn’t care. I hate to judge a person, but all indications are that he is going to have a hard life of struggle ahead of him. Before anybody says, he is another UGA failure, remeber, he was highly recruited out of High School by a lot of SEC schools, so they should thank UGA for recruiting him, or they would have him. Surely CMR gave this kid every chance to succeed and he made the decision not to. Sad, sad commentary about a young kid, who could have written his own ticket in life, but is satisfied with failure.
Sick-n-tired
July 8th, 2011
3:23 pm
@Flat Tire I totally agree with you. I am tired of hearing we will be happy with winning ten games and beating UF. Don’t get me wrong that would be a great thing to hear that the dawgs won ten games this year and they beat UF but what is the purpose for playing if you are not playing for a championship? I think that the goal year in and year out is to beat UF, win the east, win the conference championship, and try and get to the NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP. Anything less than them goals are mediocre and will keep UGA at the state their in now. Every team in the league dreams of both of those championships and it is time for UGA to want the same. This however, starts at the top with the AD and president and then trickle down the chain until it hit the players.
JB
July 8th, 2011
3:24 pm
Is the King story confirmed?
MD
July 8th, 2011
3:26 pm
King is done, per Rivals and several other places
DawginLex
July 8th, 2011
3:27 pm
http://www.edsbs.com
Auburn running away with 2011 fulmer Cup
Bag over the head boy wrong again
UGA not on the list
JB
July 8th, 2011
3:29 pm
Sick n Tired……..See Prez Adams. He is the final authority on Firing our football coach. I want Richt to win and will support that effort this year……….But ADAMS cares about being competitive, not winning Championships. If that weren’t true, Richt would have been fired last year. Ask the Presidents at Maryland and Miami. They pulled the trigger.
Food Lion Bag Boy
July 8th, 2011
3:32 pm
DawginLex
Yes please continue to ignore us FL fans, our program, and everything else thats FL.
Thats why we own you
When UGA takes a page from Spurrier and puts the importance of the game in JAX as #1 then UGA might be something to be feared.
But you guys have stooped to losing to SC, and of all teams Miss St and Vandy, keep it up and KY will be ahead of your joke program
DawginLex
July 8th, 2011
3:33 pm
http://www.wral.com/news/news_briefs/story/2844524/
****************************************************
This explains it.
Bag boy just got out of jail.
Finally has access to a computer
DawginLex
July 8th, 2011
3:36 pm
florida has won 1 title in the last well forever without Tim Tebow on the team
Without timmy, you will never win another especially since you have Buffet Boy calling the shots.
John Brantley ain’t tom Brady. You idiots claiming that charlie Buffet destroyer is going to turn Brantley into the 2nd coming of Brady are comical
And you call us delusional
Food Lion Bag Boy
July 8th, 2011
3:36 pm
DawginLex
What did I say
WHO’s been winning the Fulmer Cup one more time
Who’s been winning the Fulmer Cup
UGA has been
Here’s a puke bag for you
Food Lion Bag Boy
July 8th, 2011
3:41 pm
DawginLex
1996 ring a bell yea another title
1996 more recent than 1980
And you talk about one player oh yea I think thats UGA’s problem, weve won one without Tim Tebow bud, get off your booze
UGA might want to get into a time machine a bring Herschel back from the past
I bet you were on here foaming at the mouth when Spurrier left probably making the same stupid comment about Spurrier leaving as your reference of Tim Tebow
DawginLex
July 8th, 2011
3:41 pm
we have had zero arrests this year.
Case closed you idiot
Food Lion Bag Boy
July 8th, 2011
3:42 pm
Delusional You ARE
DawginLex
July 8th, 2011
3:42 pm
1996 was the 1 title stupid.
2006 and 2008 were with Tebow
Delusional jerk
Joey
July 8th, 2011
3:44 pm
Never seen a UF fan this persistant. Got to be an insect – how long has it been since “RAMBLE ON!!!” or “st simons” has spewed their mindless crap on here?
Bag Boy, real fast, name your Gator LBs . . .
Food Lion Bag Boy
July 8th, 2011
3:46 pm
DawginLex
Did I say anything about this year Mr. Case is closed
I said for the last time
Who’s been winning the Fulmer Cup, yea UGA
Now moron, the year is not over, its half way over so UGA is still in the hunt for this year as well
But again your program has been the recent winners
You might ought to shut up, your looking stupid
Here’s a bag for your head now go sit in the corner
Food Lion Bag Boy
July 8th, 2011
3:49 pm
DawginLex
Once again this is what you wrote
“florida has won 1 title in the last well forever without Tim Tebow on the team”
I think forever would be 1980 compared not 1996
Stop with the booze it really can restrict your thought processes
Joey
July 8th, 2011
3:55 pm
10 minutes and not a peep. That’s what I thought creep. You’ve run everybody off with your idiocy.
DawginLex
July 8th, 2011
4:01 pm
1996-1 title no Tebow
2006 and 2008-Tebow on the team
Read slowly crayon boy of go get someone with an education to read it to you.
Food Lion Bag Boy
July 8th, 2011
4:07 pm
Joey
bag of donuts
Yea I run everyone off just like FL runs your coaching staff and football team off the field and into the locker room to continue with their
“Positive meditation chants of 10 wins is all that counts”
10 wins is all that counts
10 wins is all that counts
10 wins is all that counts
10 wins is all that counts
LOL
Food Lion Bag Boy
July 8th, 2011
4:10 pm
DawginLex
Yea Im stupid to converse with
I didnt know 1996 or 15 yrs ago is well forever but 1980 isnt? Yea you make logical sense
Here’s a coloring book for you
Food Lion Bag Boy
July 8th, 2011
4:13 pm
Calling all UGA fans
Still scared of the big bad gator
Hello anyone?
Crickets churping
Crickets churping
Crickets churping
Crickets churping
UGA fans really are scared of the BIG BAD GATOR,
Hey here’s a 10 Win pillow you can hold
BLAHAHAHAHAHAHA
Ceasar
July 8th, 2011
4:28 pm
With this years cupcake schedule, 12-0 0r go!!!!!!!
Summit Dawg
July 8th, 2011
4:54 pm
Looks like Richt should have been a little more encouraging to Ealey instead of being more discouraging!!! Looks as though we might need him!!!!
RedandBlackDAWG
July 8th, 2011
5:06 pm
Lex,
If you ignore them, you do not give them an audience. If you pay attention to them, they have beaten you already. They would not be on a blog concerning UGA if nobody paid attention to them. A lot of the trolls are on here, simply because they know they will be able to stir up the crowd and draw attention to themselfs. A fire only burns when you give it fuel, and a blister goes away if you do not pick at it.
sheepdawg
July 8th, 2011
6:13 pm
disassociate the athletic association from our state’s flagship university, and absent of most of the rabids who entertain by posting on these type stories, the majority of educated folks will cheer, and not care whether cmr is rehired
Mary Kastner
July 8th, 2011
6:14 pm
Dear FLBB, I went to the doctor this afternoon and he had some really scary news for me. Thought you might need to know. You may want to see a dentist real soon.
Dawg 39
July 8th, 2011
6:21 pm
I still believe that Richt, Bobo,& Grantham are on the “3 Year Plan”. If 2011 is not what McGarity wants then he will tell everyone to start making plans elsewhere for the future unless the program has definitely turned the corner in 2012. I expect no changes in the coaching ranks until the 2012 season has been completed. Then we May see all the Football Coaches Fired….
Lakedawg
July 8th, 2011
8:09 pm
Dawg 39 you got it pretty much correct. Doubt if many of the retards posting on here attended many Dawg club meetings this spring, but McGarity said on more than one occassion it wasn’t necessarily the number of wins but the progress of overall program including off field issues.
truedawg
July 8th, 2011
11:25 pm
I have to agree with some others on here. I don’t think there is a magic number in place. just what direction the program is headed. No one could see the loses on the OL or the loses at RB. I see progress in the program. No arrests, and better work ethic in place. Even if the DAWGS start 0-2 I think CMR stays on board unless its ugly. If there aren’t injuries, or other off field issues, I expect the team to be hitting there stride mid season much like 2007. I do believe bad losses late in the season could spell trouble for CMR though. That is unless the issues mentioned before aren’t in place. The season has many winable games…on paper, but who saw AU last year coming? who saw SC for that matter? The only number that I see changing things for CMR this year is $ donated. IF fans are upset about a certain loss, Sc, Tech, or UF then Adams might have to give in to that pressure. IMO anything less than 9 wins, barring no team issues ie injuries arrests etc., would make me lose faith in the state of leadership. I have met CMR many times and like the man very much as a coach and a man. I have said on here many time I think second only to Erk, he’s the best coach to ever be at UGA. But its about winning and being competive. To say winning only 8 but beating Sc and UF is enough would mean we lost games that we should have won!! What is UF or SC ends up being an SEC champ? does a loss there mean UGA is going backwards? I’ll be pulling for the DAWGS and Richt, win or lose. But lest hope its winning. GO DAWGS!!!
Bartles and James
July 9th, 2011
12:32 pm
Keep Coach Richt no matter what the record. GO DAWGS!
We thank you for your support!
RedandBlackDAWG
July 9th, 2011
1:45 pm
I would think and hope a big consideration is keeping them off the Police Blotters this year, although I am not sure any coach can baby sit that much if needed. No one can accuse CMR of not providing the morale compass or encouragement they need or want, but it is up to the kids to avoid those circumstances.
It seems like the task facing CMR gets a little bigger each day, so we will just have to see how the season progresses both on and off the field. I personally hope he is successful, because he is someone the university should be proud to have representing them. It all boils down to the big bucks though, so UGA’s hand may be forced, If we have a real bad season. Then if the AD is forced to make a change, it might be principles be damned, just win football games, like a lot of the other schools do. Money rules college sports now.
oakwood dawg
July 9th, 2011
1:51 pm
I agree with UGA Insider Georgia is a team that will give you a game, but they can’t close the deal in the end it is just the way they are built to play. I recently made a $ 100.00 bet with a friend that UGA will never win another national championship as long as i’m alive. hate to say it just being honest, it’s a bet i’ll never have to pay BANK ON THAT.
Swamp Gator
July 9th, 2011
2:17 pm
Not such a good ending for Joel Parrish: http://jacksonville.com/tu-online/stories/082501/met_7040406.html
Joel “Cowboy” Parrish – was arrested in Australia , were arrested along with three Colombians on July 27 by Australian authorities who allege the men smuggled 2,457 pounds of cocaine that a South American drug cartel planned to distribute in Sydney.
Australian officials say the seizure is the largest in their nation’s history and would have an estimated value of $22.3 million to $33.5 million in America, U.S. officials said.
RedandBlackDAWG
July 9th, 2011
2:51 pm
Swamp Gator,
Makes you kind of wonder about this guys mental state. Maybe he took one too many head slaps in football. First he skips the NFL for the CFL. I would think he lost a fair chunk of change there. Then he plays tow years and leaves to become a lumberjack in Canada. Can’t imagine he made a whole lot of bucks compared to the CFL . I lived three years pretty close to where he off loaded the drugs in Western Australia, and if he was planning on distributing them in Sydney, I would have thought, he might want to be a little more watchful of his fuel, since he was on the other side of the continent and either way he went, had about a 3500 mile trip still to go. Depending on whether he was going south, or north, the weather would be a problem. North might be a cyclone or two to worry about, and since it is winter there, south would have or could have been a challenge. Obviously, he was not one of our more scholarly graduates, LOl.
Caleb
July 10th, 2011
5:11 pm
Georgia is overated. Tennessee will poop on them at home this year.
Henry
July 11th, 2011
7:11 pm
U GA could win all of their games and a lot of the so called Ga fans would still want him fired. I would like to know who they would replace him with. Oh I know the former coach for Ohio State
Me tOO
July 12th, 2011
4:04 pm
Any more losses to FLA and he should go. Period! Win em all but FLA and he should be fired on the spot. He is clearly not as good a Meyer was so why do we have to constantly settle for second best, scratch that, third or fourth best every year. Tired of the excuses UGA! Tired of these columns’s AJC! Go take your pathetic record against FLA some where else because I’m tired of the talk from everyone! RGTG!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Richts Got To Go! I don’t care what he aspires to be in life. Just don’t do it at the University of Georgia anymore.