Fan talk: How many wins gets Mark Richt off the ‘hot seat’?
While we cross our fingers and hope that the widespread rumors of academic casualties prove to be nothing more than midsummer fan paranoia, let’s check some Junkyard Mail …
UPDATE: The bad news about Caleb King is official now. He’s been declared academically ineligible. I’ll have more to say later. …
How many wins do the Dogs need to save Mark Richt's job? (Associated Press)
Frank Johnson writes: Seems like every time I get together with my Bulldog buddies, the subject comes up of Mark Richt being on the proverbial “hot seat” and just how many wins this season it will take to keep his job. Looking at the Dawgs’ schedule, I think anything less than 10 wins will be disappointing and grounds for dismissal. What say you?
Only Greg McGarity can possibly say what number of wins would assure Richt’s return and he might not even have made up his mind at this point. Some folks think an 0-2 start could make it tough for Richt to survive the whole season, but I frankly don’t think that’s even a possibility. He could lose the first two and still turn it around. Surely 10 wins guarantees Richt’s continued employment in Athens, but is there any way a 10-2 regular season could be disappointing? Well, if the two losses were to SEC East rivals South Carolina and Florida, I’m sure there’d be grumbling. Still, 10-2 means Richt isn’t going anywhere. Nine wins seems to be the consensus pick for the minimum Richt needs, but, again, it depends on the losses. If they’re blowouts to top rivals, a nine-win season might only lower the temperature a bit on the hot seat. I have heard people make the case that Richt can survive with just eight wins as long as one of them is over the Gators. What do you think? Even with a victory in Jacksonville, four losses still would mean the Dogs lost to someone they probably ought to beat this year.
Daniel Tuohy writes in response to my “numbers” piece the other day: Hi Bill, I’ve seen this “regression to the mean” idea all over the place, and people appear to be a bit confused (as is often the case when probability is involved). So you had this: “if you win or lose an unusually high number of close games in a season, the odds are that you’ll do the opposite the next season to get back to the mean.” That’s not quite right. The point is that in close games luck plays a very important role, and if you lose a whole bunch of them then you were very unlucky. That, however, in no way implies that the opposite will happen the next year (i.e. that you will win the majority of close games). Luck in one season is completely independent of luck in other seasons. The point is that relative to an unlucky season, any other season is likely to be better in comparison. That’s “regression to the mean.” The mean is winning 50% of your close games. So if we won 0% of our close games 2010, then if in 2011 we just hit the mean (not get lucky, just be average) we’ll win 50% of such games and have a much more attractive ledger come December — relative to 2010.
Thanks for the clarification. Yeah, I oversimplified the concept. But I warned you about me and math.
Marion Campbell writes in response to “101 Reasons to Be a UGA Fan”: Saw the listing and did not remember the “Cowboy” and “Moonpie.” Could you elaborate? I grew up in Clemson. My brother played for UGA. I lived in Athens for 10 years. You might find it interesting to know that Clemson’s R. C. Edwards, one time president, was often just called, “RC” and his wife was called “Moon Pie” in reference to the famous country snack duo.
Guard Joel “Cowboy” Parrish and tackle Mike “Moonpie” Wilson were starting offensive tackle and guard on Vince Dooley’s 1976 SEC championship team. Parrish got his nickname when he arrived in Athens as a freshman wearing a 10-gallon cowboy hat. Dan Magill tried to start a legend that Wilson ate moonpies by the carton, but the player really couldn’t stand them. He got the nickname from his round face. Both were All-Americans that season. Parrish played for the Dogs 1973-76 and was named the SEC’s outstanding lineman by the Atlanta Touchdown Club in 1977. He played some pro ball in Canada. Wilson lettered 1974-76. He went on to play with the Bengals and Seahawks and is in the Georgia Sports Hall of Fame. They were a terrific tandem on the OL. Said Dooley: “We never had a better blocking combination.” A favorite memory is from the 1976 win over Alabama. The Dogs were running the veer option using tailback Kevin McLee and two quarterbacks, Matt Robinson (the passer) and Ray Goff (the runner). The massive OL was so good that when Robinson misread a signal from the sideline and ran an option into the strong side of the Tide defense instead of the weak side as intended, he still ended up in the end zone. It was that kind of day.
Dan writes: Bill, Need to mention [South Carolina's win being the] third straight NCAA baseball title for SEC and ninth overall. ACC still has only one (Wake Forest 1955). Miami’s four titles came before they were in the ACC. Speaking of futility, what two schools have the most appearances in the college world series without a title? Answer: FSU with 20 and Clemson with 12. North Carolina with nine is only fourth in futility — GTU, who seems to lose to UGA in the super regionals, has only three appearances with, of course, 0 titles. That ACC sure is a powerful well-rounded conference!
SEC! SEC! Seriously, it might be slight consolation for the Diamond Dogs, but being the team that knocked the eventual College World Series champion out of the SEC tournament provides a notable asterisk to an up-and-down season.
Got a question for the Junkyard Blawg? Send it to junkyardblawg@gmail.com.
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340 comments Add your comment
Athens is Hell
July 8th, 2011
2:24 pm
“Ex-UGA doctoral student pleads guilty to conspiracy, theft and fraud charges”
http://www.redandblack.com/2011/07/07/ex-uga-doctoral-student-pleads-guilty-to-conspiracy-theft-and-fraud-charges/
Oh yeah … and Mark Richt is the Devil.
WDE
July 8th, 2011
2:25 pm
I can’t find anything definitive on the King issue..best I saw was CBS quoting a “source” at UGA..then 680 the fan quoting the CBS rumor…and that supposed tweet could mean a bunch if different things..anyone got anything else?
schmeckdawg
July 8th, 2011
2:25 pm
DawginLex
July 8th, 2011
2:06 pm
Keith Marshall come on down baby!!!!!!!!!!!!
DiL, the last that I saw (unfortunately) Marshall has crossed the DAWGS off of his list!
Jasper Sanks
July 8th, 2011
2:26 pm
http://eye-on-collegefootball.blogs.cbssports.com/mcc/blogs/entry/24156338/30521285
UGA FRIEND
July 8th, 2011
2:27 pm
CMR has no quota to keep his job. UGA could go 6-7 again and he will still be there. Where could UGA ge a better coach? All this talk among UGA fans about him having to win X number of games is foolish. Lighten up guys and get a life. If you don`t like your coach go root for some other team.
BigDawg11
July 8th, 2011
2:28 pm
Marshall has not crossed the Dawgs off his list. Dont know where you saw that at but thats incorrect. UGA leads with UNC 2nd and South Carolina 3rd.
AltamahaDawg
July 8th, 2011
2:29 pm
McClendon is most definitely standing right in the middle of ground zero, as far as earning his paycheck this year.
Mobile Dawg
July 8th, 2011
2:31 pm
UGA FRIEND, I’m about as light as I can get. If we see another year of the product we saw on and off the field the last several years I can predict that just may happen.
tide roll
July 8th, 2011
2:32 pm
“brake” you. It’s been how long since King’s tweet, and it took me to notice this? You uga bloggers are something else!
Joey
July 8th, 2011
2:32 pm
Me? I don’t know any insiders or sources. I read the King rumors on here 4 or 5 weeks ago, but Richt calmed me down then when he seemed sure King was eligible.
JB
July 8th, 2011
2:32 pm
10+ mil in the Bank. 7 or so mil owed on current contract. Half of ACC teams who would hire him in a minute. Not to hot to me. Life pretty good IN THE BIG PICTURE.
Mobile Dawg
July 8th, 2011
2:34 pm
If adversity brings out the best in us, watch out, these Dawgs will be “Beasts of the East” at least. Nothing personal there Beast of the East. Commenting on your previous statement I’m sure Urban Meyer’s departure had a lot to do with the pressure. He never seemed the same after the loss to Bama in the Dome a couple years back.
gtfanfrom1951
July 8th, 2011
2:35 pm
0-2 and lost to
Fla.
Miss St.
GT
one he was to win
so 7-5 maybe
Mobile Dawg
July 8th, 2011
2:36 pm
There you go again tide troll. I have to give it to you, you’re a persistent little pest.
JB
July 8th, 2011
2:36 pm
I won’t take anything away from Meyer, But Tebow, like Herschel, was a once in a life time player. Florida was never going to be that good again, year after year again. Good, yes, 11-12 wins ever year. No.
Food Lion Bag Boy
July 8th, 2011
2:38 pm
ADMan
Even a middle school drop out knows UGA is nothing but a bunch of 10 win loving losers that wont ever be on the level of FL
“What was that Caleb? Yea, I think that is ADman’s house, it has Mud Tires and its parked behind the bowling alley.
Now look Caleb Its very import that you fix his motor, he needs his house up and running so he can drive there to watch the Bullpups lose out again this season
Remember he’s a poor rabid toothless UGA fan, so if he try’s to pay you booze tell him you only take cash
MD
July 8th, 2011
2:38 pm
UGA Friend, you have to be kidding me. I am an alum, donate money and buy tickets; I can voice my opinion about how many games he should win and who he should beat because I have a vested interest. No I did not play for UGA, but I support them financially so in my opinion I can voice my (dis)pleasure.
Don’t get me wrong, he’s a great person (better than I), but he’s paid to do a job and if he’s not producing results relative to his check he needs to be gone. Do you accept mediocrity for your employees or children?
I want Richt to win, bottom line, but if he can’t he needs to go.
JB
July 8th, 2011
2:39 pm
Oh boy, there goes the hood. Bag boy showed up. I guess the Star Wars Marathon is over.
Athens is Heaven
July 8th, 2011
2:39 pm
http://poonsec.blogspot.com/2008/09/vote-for-hot-uga-poon.html
Just for you Mr Athens is He!!
These are real and don’t inflate like your dates do.
Joey
July 8th, 2011
2:40 pm
Who woulda thunk after the ‘09 Tech game that neither Ealey nor King would finish their career out as a Dawg?
Food Lion Bag Boy
July 8th, 2011
2:40 pm
JB
I guess you dont remember the decade of the 90’s do you
JB
July 8th, 2011
2:41 pm
No bag boy, when was Star Wars made, I give up
ADMan
July 8th, 2011
2:42 pm
Bag Boy your too easy to make fun of…but then again most idiots are!
Food Lion Bag Boy
July 8th, 2011
2:42 pm
JB
Moron, Ive been on all morning, you should stop watching the Dooley highlight reel, your getting it confused with the current state of your program
AltamahaDawg
July 8th, 2011
2:42 pm
No, not you Joey.
RiffRaff
July 8th, 2011
2:44 pm
Really? Mark Richt on the hot seat?? You think his phone wouldn’t be ringing off the hook if he was out of a job at UGA???
10 win season minimum.
Mobile Dawg
July 8th, 2011
2:44 pm
JB, you probably already know this but Meyer won at Bowling Green, Utah, then Florida. with and without Tebow. He is an excellent coach, but if you fear for your health that’s a major distraction.
Prowd DAWG Fan
July 8th, 2011
2:45 pm
YEEEEE—HAWWWWW!!!!! Hold it, lemme spit sum ‘bacci joose out my F-150. Now CRANK UP SOME MERLE !!! Uh, now whut wuz the question? Oh, yeah. Ah’d like to thank we shud win ever game in twenty-leven, ya here ?
JB
July 8th, 2011
2:45 pm
Bag boy………..I had to do some work………As a Techie, you know how us Jawja people get busy in the Drive thru during lunch…..LOL…………Order up
Food Lion Bag Boy
July 8th, 2011
2:45 pm
ADMan
Whose the idiot really
The 10 win loving program
Or those teams like FL and AL who expect championships instead of only 10 wins
Enjoy getting beat down every year
You follow the Dogs, DT?
July 8th, 2011
2:47 pm
I assume you don’t, considering your remark about the Dogs “customary 7 wins.” For one thing, Richt has not had a 7 win season in his 10 years at UGA. If you are talking about the program average under Richt, it is almost 10 wins per season.
Glad to be of help.
Pat
July 8th, 2011
2:50 pm
Is this supposed to be breaking news???
WDE
July 8th, 2011
2:50 pm
The University of Georgia just confirmed what had been a raging rumor all day. Starting tailback Caleb King has been ruled academically ineligible.
King apparently was unable to meet the NCAA’s satisfactory progress rule. King has not returned phone calls, texts or emails seeking comment.
Speculation that King had fallen short began from King’s own tweets at Twitter.com this morning.
First he posted: “Somethings u cant control, and what seems bad right now might turn out good. Too [sic] all of my homeboyz hold UGA down don’t let them brake [sic] u…”
Later he wrote: “I see u when I see u. U cant stress about it Just let God take control.”
Several UGA players replied later with sympathetic responses. But no one at Georgia commented on all the speculation until spokeman Claude Felton confirmed via a phone call, “yes, Caleb King is academically ineligible for fall semester.”
wildbill
July 8th, 2011
2:51 pm
9 wins including FLA.
Food Lion Bag Boy
July 8th, 2011
2:51 pm
JB
Yea that post was about as stupid as the UGA mentality of 10 wins or else
You really should get back to flipping your burgers, and lay off the kool-aid fountain drinks
JB
July 8th, 2011
2:54 pm
You’re right Mobile, But Bowling Green and winning 2 NC in 5 years at Florida is a whole different ball game. Meyer was under tremendous pressure to produce big time every year, and by produce, I don’t mean 9-10 win Georgia standards, I mean winning the East, going to the Dome and playing in a BCS bowl EVERY year. That’s a tall order in the SEC. Go Dawgs
Food Lion Bag Boy
July 8th, 2011
2:55 pm
WDE
Thanks for the CBS news with Catie Koric.
you forgot to add, “Stay tuned for either the next arrest of another UGA player or academic inelligablity
JB
July 8th, 2011
2:57 pm
Boy if this is true about King……We are thin……….ner at RB……Can someone 100% confirm. Crap!
Food Lion Bag Boy
July 8th, 2011
2:57 pm
JB
Yes it is a tall order but when your paid like these coaches are, I dont think its that tall of an order
You pay someone $3 million for mediocrity, shows your education level precisely
ORDER UP
Red Grange
July 8th, 2011
2:58 pm
The dogs had better be thankful the Tide willl not come to Athens this year.
JB
July 8th, 2011
3:01 pm
“your paid”… Bag boy….You mean “you’re” I’m sure. See, you’re is “you are”. You may not be a Techie, my bad.
JB
July 8th, 2011
3:02 pm
And he talks about educational level……..That is rich.
virginia dog
July 8th, 2011
3:02 pm
It’s pretty simple… if he starts out 0-2 he will be fired during the season. Goes 1-1 he will limp through the season and be fired at the end of the year. If he starts 2-0 he is off the hot seat. Because starting 2-0 will get him to the Georgia dome to face the #1 team in the land. UGA will be ripped but Richt will survive because the winner will be the eventual national champion.
JB
July 8th, 2011
3:05 pm
Richt will not be fired DURING the season for ANY reason. That’s what Bammer and Auburn do. Deer hunting, fishing and football is about all they know over there. If they have a bad season, it’s just summed up that that ole boy ain’t cheat’n hard enough.
dog forever
July 8th, 2011
3:05 pm
whatthedawg that post is so funny as to what will happen with the number of wins ……
NewnanDawg
July 8th, 2011
3:07 pm
He’d have to win the East….but it will never happen. He’s not coaching against Zook, Tuberville, Shula, Croom anymore in the SEC. Better coaches have exposed him over the last 5-6 years as the average coach that he truly is.
7 losses in a season at UGA is unacceptable under any circumstances short of a team plane crash.
WDE
July 8th, 2011
3:09 pm
@Food Lion Bag Boy bite me little man we lost a kid due to lack of work in the classroom, last one you lost was for dope smoking…and how many arrests the Gators up to so far this year…that’s right you’ve been schooled…yet again.
chazzo
July 8th, 2011
3:09 pm
Short answer: Win the East. Better Answer: Win the East with a win against UF. Specific answer: 4, Beat SC, UT, AU, and GT. Truth of the matter: He will never be off the hot seat with some. He is not on this season with others. That argument has been rehashed ad nauseam per every single thread posted on the ajc, including the weather, the economy, politics, the war, and climate change.
old time dog
July 8th, 2011
3:11 pm
Lots of “reported” news that folks are getting way too upset over. If the truth is that Caleb King is academically ineligible then rest assured someone else will be toting the ball and move on. College football is a revolving door that lets folks in and lets folks out. Eligibility issues, injuries, coaches tenures, incoming financial donations and the pulse rate of the fan base as perceived by the AD and on up the line all bear significant weight on the future of a head coach. Conversations between said coach and the UGA administration probably have occured that would shed light on what expectations are actually even out there. eYe doubt McGarity or anyone else has set a specific number of wins as a statute of Richt continuing. There are alot of things to look at and evaluate in being fair not only to Richt but to the program as well. The biggest factor is whether he can regain control of an once solid program that has declined in quality whether it is due to choice of assistants or a general lack of proper attention or ability from the head coach himself. eYe just don’t see a numbers game deciding this thing in it’s entirety. The governing body at UGA whom have the decisive power to decide will, like the rest of us, know whether Richt has control of the program in good hands or not. The defining moment is not very far away.
Food Lion Bag Boy
July 8th, 2011
3:12 pm
JB
Clap clap clap clap, everyone we have an english major on here
Glad you can correct grammer I guess you’ll be correcting all day because 90% of your trailer park comrades on here need correcting too you dope