Fan talk: How many wins gets Mark Richt off the ‘hot seat’?
While we cross our fingers and hope that the widespread rumors of academic casualties prove to be nothing more than midsummer fan paranoia, let’s check some Junkyard Mail …
UPDATE: The bad news about Caleb King is official now. He’s been declared academically ineligible. I’ll have more to say later. …
How many wins do the Dogs need to save Mark Richt's job? (Associated Press)
Frank Johnson writes: Seems like every time I get together with my Bulldog buddies, the subject comes up of Mark Richt being on the proverbial “hot seat” and just how many wins this season it will take to keep his job. Looking at the Dawgs’ schedule, I think anything less than 10 wins will be disappointing and grounds for dismissal. What say you?
Only Greg McGarity can possibly say what number of wins would assure Richt’s return and he might not even have made up his mind at this point. Some folks think an 0-2 start could make it tough for Richt to survive the whole season, but I frankly don’t think that’s even a possibility. He could lose the first two and still turn it around. Surely 10 wins guarantees Richt’s continued employment in Athens, but is there any way a 10-2 regular season could be disappointing? Well, if the two losses were to SEC East rivals South Carolina and Florida, I’m sure there’d be grumbling. Still, 10-2 means Richt isn’t going anywhere. Nine wins seems to be the consensus pick for the minimum Richt needs, but, again, it depends on the losses. If they’re blowouts to top rivals, a nine-win season might only lower the temperature a bit on the hot seat. I have heard people make the case that Richt can survive with just eight wins as long as one of them is over the Gators. What do you think? Even with a victory in Jacksonville, four losses still would mean the Dogs lost to someone they probably ought to beat this year.
Daniel Tuohy writes in response to my “numbers” piece the other day: Hi Bill, I’ve seen this “regression to the mean” idea all over the place, and people appear to be a bit confused (as is often the case when probability is involved). So you had this: “if you win or lose an unusually high number of close games in a season, the odds are that you’ll do the opposite the next season to get back to the mean.” That’s not quite right. The point is that in close games luck plays a very important role, and if you lose a whole bunch of them then you were very unlucky. That, however, in no way implies that the opposite will happen the next year (i.e. that you will win the majority of close games). Luck in one season is completely independent of luck in other seasons. The point is that relative to an unlucky season, any other season is likely to be better in comparison. That’s “regression to the mean.” The mean is winning 50% of your close games. So if we won 0% of our close games 2010, then if in 2011 we just hit the mean (not get lucky, just be average) we’ll win 50% of such games and have a much more attractive ledger come December — relative to 2010.
Thanks for the clarification. Yeah, I oversimplified the concept. But I warned you about me and math.
Marion Campbell writes in response to “101 Reasons to Be a UGA Fan”: Saw the listing and did not remember the “Cowboy” and “Moonpie.” Could you elaborate? I grew up in Clemson. My brother played for UGA. I lived in Athens for 10 years. You might find it interesting to know that Clemson’s R. C. Edwards, one time president, was often just called, “RC” and his wife was called “Moon Pie” in reference to the famous country snack duo.
Guard Joel “Cowboy” Parrish and tackle Mike “Moonpie” Wilson were starting offensive tackle and guard on Vince Dooley’s 1976 SEC championship team. Parrish got his nickname when he arrived in Athens as a freshman wearing a 10-gallon cowboy hat. Dan Magill tried to start a legend that Wilson ate moonpies by the carton, but the player really couldn’t stand them. He got the nickname from his round face. Both were All-Americans that season. Parrish played for the Dogs 1973-76 and was named the SEC’s outstanding lineman by the Atlanta Touchdown Club in 1977. He played some pro ball in Canada. Wilson lettered 1974-76. He went on to play with the Bengals and Seahawks and is in the Georgia Sports Hall of Fame. They were a terrific tandem on the OL. Said Dooley: “We never had a better blocking combination.” A favorite memory is from the 1976 win over Alabama. The Dogs were running the veer option using tailback Kevin McLee and two quarterbacks, Matt Robinson (the passer) and Ray Goff (the runner). The massive OL was so good that when Robinson misread a signal from the sideline and ran an option into the strong side of the Tide defense instead of the weak side as intended, he still ended up in the end zone. It was that kind of day.
Dan writes: Bill, Need to mention [South Carolina's win being the] third straight NCAA baseball title for SEC and ninth overall. ACC still has only one (Wake Forest 1955). Miami’s four titles came before they were in the ACC. Speaking of futility, what two schools have the most appearances in the college world series without a title? Answer: FSU with 20 and Clemson with 12. North Carolina with nine is only fourth in futility — GTU, who seems to lose to UGA in the super regionals, has only three appearances with, of course, 0 titles. That ACC sure is a powerful well-rounded conference!
SEC! SEC! Seriously, it might be slight consolation for the Diamond Dogs, but being the team that knocked the eventual College World Series champion out of the SEC tournament provides a notable asterisk to an up-and-down season.
Got a question for the Junkyard Blawg? Send it to junkyardblawg@gmail.com.
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340 comments Add your comment
Paul Finebaum
July 8th, 2011
1:55 pm
I tried to tell yall.
there is no "A" in academics at UGA
July 8th, 2011
1:56 pm
never has….never will be.
AltamahaDawg
July 8th, 2011
1:57 pm
Well actually…………. Malcolm probabaly does know how to block and the plays. I imagine that’s just the type of things they work on the entire year he is training as a redshirt.
DT
July 8th, 2011
1:57 pm
His job will be safe, provided the bulldogs reach their customary seven wins.
Beast from the East
July 8th, 2011
1:57 pm
ga gator,
I like your optimism, but I can’t see us being favored against Bama, LSU, USC or FSU. UGA and UT will also be close to “toss-ups”. It’s really hard to guess when everyting has been so secretive down there this off-season. Waiting with eager anticipation for September to get here!
Lowcountry Bulldawg
July 8th, 2011
1:57 pm
18months after running wild on Tech neither Ealey or King are with the program….
Flat Tire on I-95 in Jacksonville
July 8th, 2011
1:58 pm
Well
Its another rebuilding year like last yr, and the yr before, and the yr before, and the yr before, and the yr before.
MD
July 8th, 2011
1:58 pm
Caleb King was a proven back w/ a 5+ yard per carry average. That’s something to build an offense around, on top of being a senior. I see it as a rebuilding year, you can’t count on 2 guys who haven’t seen live action and a fumbling nightmare to carry the load for this team in the SEC. Can we put #7 in the backfield?
Birdawg
July 8th, 2011
1:58 pm
We should just put two o lineman back at tailback and full back and just throw all day.
2012 FEAR THE END
July 8th, 2011
1:58 pm
We just have to use a 2 Tight End set more often, problem solved
Lowcountry Bulldawg
July 8th, 2011
1:59 pm
Brandon Smith will get more looks now than had been anticipated.
Mobile Dawg
July 8th, 2011
1:59 pm
The facts are:
Dawgs will line up a team, and be competetive. Adversity in Athens will fuel the fire and provide ample motivation this year. Kinda sounds like King is gone.
Birdawg
July 8th, 2011
2:00 pm
The King has left the building!!
ADMan
July 8th, 2011
2:00 pm
Food Lion Bag Boy….you do realize you’re a “bag boy” don’t you? If you’ve got an opening Caleb King needs a job….That will free up some of your time to shine my shoes and mow my lawn….glad Kings gone…he’s had plenty of chances…I’ll be gald to hold the door open for him when he leaves…..Malcome will more than take his place(see spring game) and Crowell will take over as the featured back and lead the SEC in rushing….I’ll bet that the Georgia offence will be better than Bama’s and Florida’s this year…..it’s gonna happen!
BigDawg11
July 8th, 2011
2:00 pm
Birdawg,
Why do that. Malcome can fill the position just fine and Crowell will develop. King has been a bust from day 1. Time to move on.
tide roll
July 8th, 2011
2:01 pm
Samuel didn’t have a fumbling problem in high school. If it is a problem at Uga, maybe a little coaching would help. Oh wait, your running backs coach is nearly as young as your players, and was a wide receiver! Samuel hasn’t played linebacker since high school (5 years ago) and you guys now have him starting! Where’s Marcus Dowtin? Where’s Nick Williams? They were experienced LB(s)! Oh wait, they’re gone because ” Pudge” Grantham wants more size at Linebacker. Talking about size, Grantham and your Offensive Coordinator, Bobo would make a great Before and After picture for Jenny Craig Weight watchers! You guys are absolutely certifiable! Go Dawgs! What a joke of a program!
Birdawg
July 8th, 2011
2:01 pm
Just being sarcastic, King and Malcome have to grown up fast though, it might be too late by the time they do.
UGA Insider
July 8th, 2011
2:02 pm
I really feel for Caleb because he’s in the best shape of his life and has been working hard on the field. Now look for Nick Marshall and a few others to get a shot at rb. We are as thin back there as I can ever remember. Please note we are paperthin at fb as well. We have a converted TE penciled in to start. We may not win too many games but atleast it will be intertaining to watch.
BigDawg11
July 8th, 2011
2:03 pm
Got ya man. Malcome knows the syste quite well. He will be ready to go. Crowell is improving each day. This is what the kid wanted when he signed his LOI with us. Immediate playing time. Lets see what ya got kid
Delbert D.
July 8th, 2011
2:04 pm
I’d say Ohio State head coach Luke Fickell is on the hot seat, trying to improve on his predecessor’s 0-13 record of last season.
Mark Richt Farewell Tour
July 8th, 2011
2:04 pm
enjoy losers. another 6-6 season or less.
Mobile Dawg
July 8th, 2011
2:04 pm
tide roll, shut up, you’re nothing more than a pot stirring blithering idiot LOSER. That’s the obvious thing we see.
Birdawg
July 8th, 2011
2:05 pm
Oh no doubt BigDawg, I can’t wait to see it!! I want to see Crowell light up the Broncos secondary after he burns the front line.
DawginLex
July 8th, 2011
2:05 pm
Bruce figgins at FB is a concern?
not in my book
6′4″ 275 pounds
Might need to move him to the OL and let Zander Ogletree play FB
DawginLex
July 8th, 2011
2:06 pm
Keith Marshall come on down baby!!!!!!!!!!!!
AltamahaDawg
July 8th, 2011
2:06 pm
Well, one thing to consider is that while WE are just now coming to grips with this, I am almost certain that the coaches, (and maybe even the whole team, have not been counting on King being a part of the plan for a while now. Not sure what they can do about that, but I positive they have not spent the summer building around his presence.
Mobile Dawg
July 8th, 2011
2:08 pm
I see more positives coming out of the continued house cleaning in Athens. I say, it’s about time. These young guys can play, let’s hope that defense pans out like it’s predicted, unlike the offensive line a year ago, they were supposed to be the strength of the team. This year it looks like the defense protects the flag, until the offense matures.
Mobile Dawg
July 8th, 2011
2:09 pm
Just thinking about what you wrote Altamaha, CMR had to know King was improbable.
Joey
July 8th, 2011
2:10 pm
I agree with DIL. The biggest key to Richt’s immediate future is Todd Grantham. If his D is what we think it will be, then even Bobo can’t mess this team up.
Win the first two, the Dawgs will win 10.
Don’t want to dwell on the alternative . . .
David
July 8th, 2011
2:11 pm
All you people who want to replace Mark Richt, tell me who would you replace him with that could do any better???????
Mobile Dawg
July 8th, 2011
2:12 pm
The alternative Joey is “Joey Jones” at South Alabama.
Delbert D.
July 8th, 2011
2:12 pm
I wish that the NCAA would allow a school to administer the Wonderlic test before they sign recruits to a scholarship.
DawginLex
July 8th, 2011
2:12 pm
Wouldn’t it be something if Crowell ran for about 150 versus boise and all of us could take a deep breath?
Wake up son!!
Sorry…………….
Mobile Dawg
July 8th, 2011
2:12 pm
I just told you David…
JDawg1785
July 8th, 2011
2:13 pm
I’m sorry to hear about Caleb and truly wish him the best. Say hello to Boo Malcome, a guy I thought looked amazing at G-Day. Sure, he’s never carried the rock in a real game, but Murray hadn’t thrown a pass in a real game before last season and he worked out OK. Who knows how things will pan out?
GT Dad
July 8th, 2011
2:13 pm
With an easier schedule, I think the Dawgs need to get at least 9 wins for Richt to keep his job. It’s possible, but depends on both lines and avoiding injuries.
(Oh, and Dan, hope you’re not running all over ATL looking for GTU gear……)
DawginLex
July 8th, 2011
2:14 pm
David
it doesn’t matter who would be on the replacement list
In this “fix it now” society all that matters is a change is made.
That’s why the Bowdens and Paternos will never be around ever again
Food Lion Bag Boy
July 8th, 2011
2:15 pm
ADman
Caleb King, stated that he is a good engine mechanic and will be over to fix your motor so you can drive your house on wheels to the ball games
That way you can watch UGA self destruct in person
Mobile Dawg
July 8th, 2011
2:15 pm
In this day Lex, I don’t think anyone can hold up that long, to much pressure at the “big programs”.
UGA Insider
July 8th, 2011
2:16 pm
Mobile and Altamaha:
I like your positive thinking but you can’t be more wrong. This staff and this team were fully expecting and counting on King to be eligible. He has been a leader at workouts and many told me he might have a huge breakout season if he could stay healthy. This is a huge letdown for me as well. We all thought he had the grades to get to the opener.
Gossip Girl
July 8th, 2011
2:16 pm
Just heard a rumor that Caleb King is ineligible due to academics this coming Fall. Anyone heard that? Say it ain’t so!
AltamahaDawg
July 8th, 2011
2:18 pm
I’m sure King returning was plan B. Still, it was probabaly close enough they were hopeful.
I don’t imagine it was happytime, when that GA had to walk in and tell the coaches that King just failed that one test, or that one report, that nailed his grade in whatever class. Curse words?
Joey
July 8th, 2011
2:18 pm
Oh crap. I just heard about our only experienced tailback that weighs more than 170 lbs.
Beast from the East
July 8th, 2011
2:19 pm
Mobile Dawg and DawginLex,
Sad but true. Guys that want to stay at one school their entire careers need to stick with Div II these days. BCS schools aren’t for the faint of heart. With the salaries they’re receiving, the schools, fans and alumni want it NOW!
Birdawg
July 8th, 2011
2:20 pm
Here is his tweet:
RT @C_King4: Somethings u cant control, and what seems bad right now might turn out good. Too all of my homeboyz hold UGA down don’t let them brake u…
beebee
July 8th, 2011
2:20 pm
Dawg fans: The Honduras mission trip should stay in your minds.
Coach Richt knows and has in his heart what is more important and satisfying in this world. Although football is fun and exciting and pays him so well, all the calculated mess surrounding it may not be worth even all the money.
Show him love even if the team loses 3,4, or 5 games and don’t try to fireMarkRicht.com Otherwise he’ll say “To Hell with Georgia” and he won’t take the “Hell” back this time.
Bulldog players got to play hard and smart for him too.
Flat Tire on I-95 in Jacksonville
July 8th, 2011
2:23 pm
David
Your question was answered by DawginLex at 12:09
Since you love mediocrity and dont think a replacement can do better please go pull for another program
AltamahaDawg
July 8th, 2011
2:23 pm
Weren’t you claiming some weeks ago that “insiders” knew he did not have the grades?
Joey
July 8th, 2011
2:23 pm
Well, our RB coach just got his salary doubled. Maybe he will earn it and get some boys ready Boise.
ADMan
July 8th, 2011
2:24 pm
Food Lion Bag Boy….I wouldn’t let you or King work on anything mechanical…stick to paper products and grass and you might be able to work your way up to be the brine tester at the pickle factory……one thing for sure is you don’t know much about college football!….everybody in the office thinks that your either a high school drop out, a college drop out or momas boy…one thing for sure is that you’re a redneck…no doubt about it!