Fan talk: How many wins gets Mark Richt off the ‘hot seat’?
While we cross our fingers and hope that the widespread rumors of academic casualties prove to be nothing more than midsummer fan paranoia, let’s check some Junkyard Mail …
UPDATE: The bad news about Caleb King is official now. He’s been declared academically ineligible. I’ll have more to say later. …
How many wins do the Dogs need to save Mark Richt's job? (Associated Press)
Frank Johnson writes: Seems like every time I get together with my Bulldog buddies, the subject comes up of Mark Richt being on the proverbial “hot seat” and just how many wins this season it will take to keep his job. Looking at the Dawgs’ schedule, I think anything less than 10 wins will be disappointing and grounds for dismissal. What say you?
Only Greg McGarity can possibly say what number of wins would assure Richt’s return and he might not even have made up his mind at this point. Some folks think an 0-2 start could make it tough for Richt to survive the whole season, but I frankly don’t think that’s even a possibility. He could lose the first two and still turn it around. Surely 10 wins guarantees Richt’s continued employment in Athens, but is there any way a 10-2 regular season could be disappointing? Well, if the two losses were to SEC East rivals South Carolina and Florida, I’m sure there’d be grumbling. Still, 10-2 means Richt isn’t going anywhere. Nine wins seems to be the consensus pick for the minimum Richt needs, but, again, it depends on the losses. If they’re blowouts to top rivals, a nine-win season might only lower the temperature a bit on the hot seat. I have heard people make the case that Richt can survive with just eight wins as long as one of them is over the Gators. What do you think? Even with a victory in Jacksonville, four losses still would mean the Dogs lost to someone they probably ought to beat this year.
Daniel Tuohy writes in response to my “numbers” piece the other day: Hi Bill, I’ve seen this “regression to the mean” idea all over the place, and people appear to be a bit confused (as is often the case when probability is involved). So you had this: “if you win or lose an unusually high number of close games in a season, the odds are that you’ll do the opposite the next season to get back to the mean.” That’s not quite right. The point is that in close games luck plays a very important role, and if you lose a whole bunch of them then you were very unlucky. That, however, in no way implies that the opposite will happen the next year (i.e. that you will win the majority of close games). Luck in one season is completely independent of luck in other seasons. The point is that relative to an unlucky season, any other season is likely to be better in comparison. That’s “regression to the mean.” The mean is winning 50% of your close games. So if we won 0% of our close games 2010, then if in 2011 we just hit the mean (not get lucky, just be average) we’ll win 50% of such games and have a much more attractive ledger come December — relative to 2010.
Thanks for the clarification. Yeah, I oversimplified the concept. But I warned you about me and math.
Marion Campbell writes in response to “101 Reasons to Be a UGA Fan”: Saw the listing and did not remember the “Cowboy” and “Moonpie.” Could you elaborate? I grew up in Clemson. My brother played for UGA. I lived in Athens for 10 years. You might find it interesting to know that Clemson’s R. C. Edwards, one time president, was often just called, “RC” and his wife was called “Moon Pie” in reference to the famous country snack duo.
Guard Joel “Cowboy” Parrish and tackle Mike “Moonpie” Wilson were starting offensive tackle and guard on Vince Dooley’s 1976 SEC championship team. Parrish got his nickname when he arrived in Athens as a freshman wearing a 10-gallon cowboy hat. Dan Magill tried to start a legend that Wilson ate moonpies by the carton, but the player really couldn’t stand them. He got the nickname from his round face. Both were All-Americans that season. Parrish played for the Dogs 1973-76 and was named the SEC’s outstanding lineman by the Atlanta Touchdown Club in 1977. He played some pro ball in Canada. Wilson lettered 1974-76. He went on to play with the Bengals and Seahawks and is in the Georgia Sports Hall of Fame. They were a terrific tandem on the OL. Said Dooley: “We never had a better blocking combination.” A favorite memory is from the 1976 win over Alabama. The Dogs were running the veer option using tailback Kevin McLee and two quarterbacks, Matt Robinson (the passer) and Ray Goff (the runner). The massive OL was so good that when Robinson misread a signal from the sideline and ran an option into the strong side of the Tide defense instead of the weak side as intended, he still ended up in the end zone. It was that kind of day.
Dan writes: Bill, Need to mention [South Carolina's win being the] third straight NCAA baseball title for SEC and ninth overall. ACC still has only one (Wake Forest 1955). Miami’s four titles came before they were in the ACC. Speaking of futility, what two schools have the most appearances in the college world series without a title? Answer: FSU with 20 and Clemson with 12. North Carolina with nine is only fourth in futility — GTU, who seems to lose to UGA in the super regionals, has only three appearances with, of course, 0 titles. That ACC sure is a powerful well-rounded conference!
SEC! SEC! Seriously, it might be slight consolation for the Diamond Dogs, but being the team that knocked the eventual College World Series champion out of the SEC tournament provides a notable asterisk to an up-and-down season.
Got a question for the Junkyard Blawg? Send it to junkyardblawg@gmail.com.
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340 comments Add your comment
Food Lion Bag Boy
July 8th, 2011
12:29 pm
Flat Tire
Forget it son, your fanbase is nothing more than a bunch of losers who think 10 wins is a National Title, Bill Kings article and the majority of fan posts proves that
Why dont UGA join the ACC and have FSU take their place
UGA is the laughing stock of the SEC deal with it
james
July 8th, 2011
12:30 pm
another worthless article.
dawgduck
July 8th, 2011
12:31 pm
Can we please have one more article about Coach Mark Richt being on the hotseat…please can we, please please please. I just can’t get enough of it
Pat
July 8th, 2011
12:32 pm
Irrelevant as you won’t overcome the losses of aj green and durham on the receiving side and the offense will be too one dimensional this year.
lose to boise fla aub tech and the bowl game
Flat Tire on I-95 in Jacksonville
July 8th, 2011
12:34 pm
UGA 1999
I dont mind Urban Cryer being our coach. At least we will have someone who will do what it takes to win
Food Lion, go bag for the Orlando Sentinel and leave us alone, I know are fanbase and coaches dont have it in them to win,
Go rag one of the other 10 win loving morons on here
UGA1999
July 8th, 2011
12:34 pm
You guys can keep talking about UGA…I am heading to lanier for boating, drinking, cigar smoking and bikini watching!
JJ
July 8th, 2011
12:36 pm
Its gonna be tough with out Caleb King now that he flunked out
Producer
July 8th, 2011
12:38 pm
Minimum 9 wins and a bowl victory to equal 10 will keep this no talent hack in Athens for another season. But who knows, because Richt is such a gooood man!
RedandBlackDAWG
July 8th, 2011
12:38 pm
The Dawgs have a very favorable schedule for the most part this year. They have the athlets to be in every game but we do have a very glaring weakness in our experience at key positions. Our Degefnse is capable of keeping the DAWGS in every game, if our offense can play to their strengths to negate some of the weaknesses. We need time for our OL backups and RB to establish themselves. Our offense willl have to be played with a mixture of control and some of the ordinary plays on occasion. I am not worried about eh players as much as I am our offensive play calling coach. He will need to use a fair amount of imagination and inovation to insure we can move the ball. I think and hope, with CMR being a little more involved in the game as it progresses, that he can. This I beleive is the year of the coach at UGA. I am not worried about the defense, but the offensive coach will need to step it up. Anything less than 9 wins, and defeating our chief nemisis, and there will need to be some changes made for the following year.
Why Wait?
July 8th, 2011
12:40 pm
@uga1999. I would be happy if they brought in Santa Claus as coach next year. Just want Richt gone. Urban Meyer would be a gift fom god.
Lowcountry Bulldawg
July 8th, 2011
12:40 pm
Wow, I thought this blog got outta hand. I am on another site and they are rumoring that AM had a FB status that said he made the biggest mistake of his life and that he hoped Bulldog nation would forgive him. Then he supposedly took that post down. Then the guys go on to specualte he cheated on a psych ed class and the teacher is out for him! LOL! WOW! People have WAY to much time on there hands,lol….
Food Lion Bag Boy
July 8th, 2011
12:40 pm
I know what they serve for beverages in JAWGA, and it isnt Coca Cola.
Its 10 win season Kool-aid
3-21 it will be
BLAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAH
Losers
Food Lion Bag Boy
July 8th, 2011
12:43 pm
What is the motivational Uniform this year Dawg fans
I personally liked the Grambling Scheme, it was good motivation for us to beat the stupidity out of you
BLAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA
10 win losers
St. Richt
July 8th, 2011
12:44 pm
Glad to see your articles still don’t make any sense. You UGA fans should be proud to have such a fine writer covering the Dawgs. This article reads like its the result of early stage dementia for Uncle Jessie.
Redacted
July 8th, 2011
12:44 pm
Shazam.
win the east
July 8th, 2011
12:45 pm
I think he has to win the East. If he comes very, very close to doing that but still falls short, it’s still possible that he keeps his job.
If he goes 8-4 or worse, he’s definitely gone.
St. Richt
July 8th, 2011
12:46 pm
Especially like the part about how the Diamond Dawgs should feel proud that they knocked USC out of the SEC tournament. Yep, Bill, they should’ve or could’ve won it all! LOL.
Producer
July 8th, 2011
12:46 pm
Are there any junior colleges on the schedule like UCF that we have to worry about getting humiliated by?
AdMan
July 8th, 2011
12:48 pm
Food Lion Bag Boy…you’ve got to be the biggest idiot in the world…I’m guessing you’ve got a mullett, an arm full of tattoos and are hung like a field mouse….Can’t wait to hear you cry when your team under achieves this year….what a loser you are!….but you know that already don’t you…that’s why your a bag boy!
Wow
July 8th, 2011
12:48 pm
Food Lion loser,
Your school’s color scheme is the ugliest and cheesiest in the country. And you want to talk about our color scheme?
Big Johnson Dawg
July 8th, 2011
12:50 pm
You can’t base this stuff on a certain number. You base it on whether a coach is doing all the things necessary to be successful, like discipline, effort, recuiting,etc. You base it on if a coach has control of his players and the program is going in the right direction. If you base it on record alone, then alot of schools would have already replaced their coaches.
Wow
July 8th, 2011
12:51 pm
St. Richt is jealous of all things “Dawgs”. His nerd herd is the laughing stock of Atlanta.
Red Stick (formerly Jumbeauxtiger)
July 8th, 2011
12:52 pm
I believe UGA will upset Boise St but lose to SC.
The Dawgs have a favorable schedule and I see them going 9-3 or 10-2. I think Richt has to beat Florida if he loses to SC.
Geaux Tigers
Go SEC
Football Insider
July 8th, 2011
12:52 pm
Looks like Richt’s ability to get off the hot seat just got harder with Caleb King gone. Per Caleb King’s twitter feed, he’s done as a bulldawg.
me
July 8th, 2011
12:52 pm
Mark Richt takes a trip to Hondorus or however you spell it but he has players that need just as much attention (see Caleb Queen and Isaiah Crowell). Now with Caleb Queen gone, when will people put the blame on Richt? Mark, your program is dying a slow death. Time to resign Richt.
Beast from the East
July 8th, 2011
12:59 pm
JB,
Are you still keeping track of how many Richt “hot seat” blogs? I can’t recall but I think this is around #10?
Food Lion Bag Boy
July 8th, 2011
1:01 pm
Wow
Yea the Black Grambling helmets were really nice looking
AdMan
Yea guessing you dont have anything hanging, and you pull up to games in your house on wheels, with your red pants on and a 1/5 to drink your losing woes away
BLAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA
Hardtruth Soldier
July 8th, 2011
1:01 pm
Folks, Do you guys realize that some guy named Donnan got fired for 8 wins on a reguslar basis. Here’s the problem, Donnan never beat Fla, and lost to Tech. If Richt beats “the Big Boys” Fla,Aub,Now S.C., and Boise State then he’ll be o.k. But then again if if beats then all if shoulde run the table. I predicted in 09 that this would be Georgia’s year to play in the BCS Nat’l title game. I think with this revamped Defense, and a proven offense that can move the ball, this unit can be special. The key to this unit is how hard King, (Caleb not Tavaris ) wants it, or how much Crowell wants to show he’s the real deal. On paper UGA looks great, but it comes down to one thing, coaching. Sorry Dawg Nation, but this is where it hurts the most. Not Richt, but Bobo. In case some of you don’t see this, in back to last years Dallas Cowboys team when there head coach got axed, and there asst, Jason Garrett took over. Funny how they started winning. Watch Bobo closely. He’s hungry for that job,
Paul in East Lake
July 8th, 2011
1:04 pm
I think Richt should come back if the season ends with at least a 500 record AND one that showed better player discipline OFF the field.
Is that being too easy on Richt? Nope. Last time I checked firing the coach doesn’t keep members of the O-line from getting hurt or underachievers from leaving the program, or give a very talented freshman class a year of experience. It’s up to the players to perform. I think Richt has shown he can coach. The program has taken a step back, sure … but from such great heights.
GT-JLC
July 8th, 2011
1:05 pm
I think 8 is the number, with 2 of those being over any of the following…SC, BSU, FL. Anything less than that and I think he’s a goner. Good guy though.
I'm Just Saying
July 8th, 2011
1:07 pm
All of these problems can be solved by simply adding more tailgating activities to the fan base. Here are a few suggestions:
Guessing what color the jerseys will be.
Human waste hopscotch.
Stolen helmet relay races.
Scuplting with trash.
Writing fiction classes…topics include why we will win the East! and…we are an elite program.
Group studies….how much is a three point shot really worth.
Instead of where is Waldo you can play where is the library…yes ugump actually has a library.
Disabled person pinatas.
Group discussions on what time should we leave the game if Kentucky has a slight lead.
Bama Mike
July 8th, 2011
1:09 pm
For every team in the SEC the first game that is never played is the biggest for each season. You can simply list it as
vs Academic Elgibility
That first game can be a killer for us all.
Food Lion Bag Boy
July 8th, 2011
1:09 pm
Paul in East Lake
Spoken from a true diehard, typical, JAWGA fan.
I agree sign him to a 10 yr contract if he is 1-11 so long as he beats Tech right
BLAHAHAHAHAHAHA
Loser mentality tradition continues
RFP
July 8th, 2011
1:10 pm
King is gone, hope that Crowell is as good as advertised.
dawg tired
July 8th, 2011
1:10 pm
Richt coached teams have had a problem as of late of not being ready to play when the ball comes off of the tee. It takes them two quarters to adjust and by then it is too late. That being said, 9 wins probably gives him more time.
Less than 9 and he might find a cooler seat in Honduras.
AdMan
July 8th, 2011
1:11 pm
your name… “Food Lion Bag Boy ” says it all….now come shine my shoes and mow my lawn, boy!
AltamahaDawg
July 8th, 2011
1:12 pm
It’s not a number, it’s the games, and what the other folks end up doing as well. It’s all relative.
twitterfriend
July 8th, 2011
1:13 pm
Anyone here friends with Caleb King on twitter? Someone suggested that he might be donzo at UGA based on something he tweeted. His twitter is blocked to friends only.
RJ Voorhees
July 8th, 2011
1:14 pm
I say 10 including a win over Florida. I want a NC though!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
slydog
July 8th, 2011
1:14 pm
breaking news!!!! Caleb King academically ineligible for the upcoming season. I bet CMR will be back calling plays now cause the pressure just racheted up 10 tics….lmao
UGA Alumnus
July 8th, 2011
1:17 pm
I’ll say this… if it’s going to take Richt 10 wins to save his job, then he’s not going to save it. I like Richt as a coach and I believe in his ability. All programs have their ups and downs. I want Richt to stay. But I don’t expect 10 wins this season.
Beast from the East
July 8th, 2011
1:17 pm
Not trying to start a fight with any of the UGA faithful, but I find it amusing that so many say a win over UF is a “must”. From my perspective, a loss to one of the best programs the past 20 years should be much easier to take than a loss to Kentucky (Richt has 2), Vandy (Richt has 1), or Tech (Richt has 1). THOSE should be “must” wins, right?
Honest and Frank Discussion
July 8th, 2011
1:18 pm
Bill, you didn’t oversimplify the concept, you were DEAD WRONG about it. People without functioning brains shouldn’t be given a soap box to stand on.
Jacket Man
July 8th, 2011
1:20 pm
It sure won’t help having Caleb King being ruled academically ineligible…
Flat Tire on I-95 in Jacksonville
July 8th, 2011
1:21 pm
Since its looking like Caleb King is ineligible, Richt just got another excuse he needs for another season pass even with lousy results this season
J-Dub
July 8th, 2011
1:22 pm
Why is it the every UGA fan rides the coattails of the SEC?? All UGA fans act like they did something great every time another SEC team wins a title.
I guess when you haven’t won a title in the last 30+ years in anything but women’s gymnastics, you gotta find something to talk about….
Fan of the Game
July 8th, 2011
1:23 pm
I am glad Coach Richt and his staff doesn’t look at this garbage. Most on here really have good ideas, but it is the ones that have the daddyball menatlity that get me. They couldn’t call a play if their life depended on it. They have no idea what it would be like to coach a real team.
FLA DAWG
July 8th, 2011
1:23 pm
Bill,
If Richt drops the first two games he will certainly NOT go undefeated the rest of the season. He’d have to beat UT, Auburn, Florida & GT. That’s not in the cards.
I think Richt probably goes 1 – 1 in the first two games but loses to most of the above named teams and a couple of others. That will be the end of the Richt Era at UGA and that’ll be fine with many in Dawg Nation.
DawginLex
July 8th, 2011
1:23 pm
Ohio state just vacated 2010 and Sugar Bowl
where is Buckeye?
Still 0′fer versus SEC
Pago Pago Dawg
July 8th, 2011
1:24 pm
We agree with everybody else…win in JAX!