Fan talk: How many wins gets Mark Richt off the ‘hot seat’?
While we cross our fingers and hope that the widespread rumors of academic casualties prove to be nothing more than midsummer fan paranoia, let’s check some Junkyard Mail …
UPDATE: The bad news about Caleb King is official now. He’s been declared academically ineligible. I’ll have more to say later. …
How many wins do the Dogs need to save Mark Richt's job? (Associated Press)
Frank Johnson writes: Seems like every time I get together with my Bulldog buddies, the subject comes up of Mark Richt being on the proverbial “hot seat” and just how many wins this season it will take to keep his job. Looking at the Dawgs’ schedule, I think anything less than 10 wins will be disappointing and grounds for dismissal. What say you?
Only Greg McGarity can possibly say what number of wins would assure Richt’s return and he might not even have made up his mind at this point. Some folks think an 0-2 start could make it tough for Richt to survive the whole season, but I frankly don’t think that’s even a possibility. He could lose the first two and still turn it around. Surely 10 wins guarantees Richt’s continued employment in Athens, but is there any way a 10-2 regular season could be disappointing? Well, if the two losses were to SEC East rivals South Carolina and Florida, I’m sure there’d be grumbling. Still, 10-2 means Richt isn’t going anywhere. Nine wins seems to be the consensus pick for the minimum Richt needs, but, again, it depends on the losses. If they’re blowouts to top rivals, a nine-win season might only lower the temperature a bit on the hot seat. I have heard people make the case that Richt can survive with just eight wins as long as one of them is over the Gators. What do you think? Even with a victory in Jacksonville, four losses still would mean the Dogs lost to someone they probably ought to beat this year.
Daniel Tuohy writes in response to my “numbers” piece the other day: Hi Bill, I’ve seen this “regression to the mean” idea all over the place, and people appear to be a bit confused (as is often the case when probability is involved). So you had this: “if you win or lose an unusually high number of close games in a season, the odds are that you’ll do the opposite the next season to get back to the mean.” That’s not quite right. The point is that in close games luck plays a very important role, and if you lose a whole bunch of them then you were very unlucky. That, however, in no way implies that the opposite will happen the next year (i.e. that you will win the majority of close games). Luck in one season is completely independent of luck in other seasons. The point is that relative to an unlucky season, any other season is likely to be better in comparison. That’s “regression to the mean.” The mean is winning 50% of your close games. So if we won 0% of our close games 2010, then if in 2011 we just hit the mean (not get lucky, just be average) we’ll win 50% of such games and have a much more attractive ledger come December — relative to 2010.
Thanks for the clarification. Yeah, I oversimplified the concept. But I warned you about me and math.
Marion Campbell writes in response to “101 Reasons to Be a UGA Fan”: Saw the listing and did not remember the “Cowboy” and “Moonpie.” Could you elaborate? I grew up in Clemson. My brother played for UGA. I lived in Athens for 10 years. You might find it interesting to know that Clemson’s R. C. Edwards, one time president, was often just called, “RC” and his wife was called “Moon Pie” in reference to the famous country snack duo.
Guard Joel “Cowboy” Parrish and tackle Mike “Moonpie” Wilson were starting offensive tackle and guard on Vince Dooley’s 1976 SEC championship team. Parrish got his nickname when he arrived in Athens as a freshman wearing a 10-gallon cowboy hat. Dan Magill tried to start a legend that Wilson ate moonpies by the carton, but the player really couldn’t stand them. He got the nickname from his round face. Both were All-Americans that season. Parrish played for the Dogs 1973-76 and was named the SEC’s outstanding lineman by the Atlanta Touchdown Club in 1977. He played some pro ball in Canada. Wilson lettered 1974-76. He went on to play with the Bengals and Seahawks and is in the Georgia Sports Hall of Fame. They were a terrific tandem on the OL. Said Dooley: “We never had a better blocking combination.” A favorite memory is from the 1976 win over Alabama. The Dogs were running the veer option using tailback Kevin McLee and two quarterbacks, Matt Robinson (the passer) and Ray Goff (the runner). The massive OL was so good that when Robinson misread a signal from the sideline and ran an option into the strong side of the Tide defense instead of the weak side as intended, he still ended up in the end zone. It was that kind of day.
Dan writes: Bill, Need to mention [South Carolina's win being the] third straight NCAA baseball title for SEC and ninth overall. ACC still has only one (Wake Forest 1955). Miami’s four titles came before they were in the ACC. Speaking of futility, what two schools have the most appearances in the college world series without a title? Answer: FSU with 20 and Clemson with 12. North Carolina with nine is only fourth in futility — GTU, who seems to lose to UGA in the super regionals, has only three appearances with, of course, 0 titles. That ACC sure is a powerful well-rounded conference!
SEC! SEC! Seriously, it might be slight consolation for the Diamond Dogs, but being the team that knocked the eventual College World Series champion out of the SEC tournament provides a notable asterisk to an up-and-down season.
Got a question for the Junkyard Blawg? Send it to junkyardblawg@gmail.com.
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340 comments Add your comment
Sam
July 8th, 2011
11:41 am
Hey “me”: I guess those SEC titles and BCS bowl wins under Richt and Adams were just figments of my imagination.
mo
July 8th, 2011
11:41 am
geez you people were just singing his praises a few weeks ago when the man was on a mission, why the fuss? Afterall, you all won the national title just 31 years ago. Can’t you be happy with that?
Flat Tire on I-95 in Jacksonville
July 8th, 2011
11:42 am
Ive never seen so many fans expect to lose to FL as if its a right of passage and all is well if we beat TECH
please do the program a favor and go pull for Vandy
GA Sandlapper
July 8th, 2011
11:44 am
I think Richt needs to win 9 to 10 games. If UGA does not win the SEC East, they need to beat UF & Tech.
Vampire Bill
July 8th, 2011
11:46 am
It’s wrong to put a number on it but if I had to, I’d say 9 games. What the Bulldawg nation is looking for in my opinion is good hard competitive FOOTBALL. It’s one thing to play well and hard and lose to an equally matched opponent but it’s another thing to be behind in a game and continue to run off tackle when it’s 3rd and 8 or continue to throw to the same receiver again and again when others are open.
If CMR can put on a great show, use what he has effectively and motivate his players to not only play hard but well then all will be fine.
DawginLex
July 8th, 2011
11:50 am
If we lose to Boise and Sc, I don’t believe this team has the cajones to recover.
Richt has to beat Florida this year in order to survive.
Barring a major injury to Murray, Richt has no excuses to not win that game.
This schedule is laid out for 10-2 or 11-1.
For me it is 10-2 and beat florida or hit the road
Cobb Dawg
July 8th, 2011
11:52 am
Hard to say — but if he racked up 9 wins, I would think that would be enough. More importantly, I think we should all be looking for the following things in 2011: A steep drop in off-field issues (e.g., arrests and disciplinary problems); the team hanging tough and playing close in the 4th quarter (thanks to the new S&C program); indications that CTG’s defense has kicked in in Year 2, with a year’s worth of teaching under his belt and better role-players at critical positions; and less predictable play-calling on offense thanks to CMR’s increased involvement.
DawginLex
July 8th, 2011
11:53 am
My logic is if Richt can’t beat a 1st year head coach putting in an entire new system, then we might as well hire a new coach ourselves.
J-DAWG
July 8th, 2011
11:54 am
Were u going to fine better… CMR is a stand up guy, has done a better job with off the field issues and has had only 1 bad season. Name better coach’s to replace him…
Saban
July 8th, 2011
11:58 am
4 wins should keep the fan base happy
gomdawg
July 8th, 2011
12:00 pm
FIRST LETS TALK 2011 FOOTBALL AND I’M GETTING TIRED OF YOU TALKING ABOUT COACH LOSING HIS JOB IF THAT’S ALL YOU CAN DRUM UP TO TALK ABOUT MAYBE YOU NEED TO BE HUNTING A DAMN JOB
Fan of the Game
July 8th, 2011
12:00 pm
Anybody that says that Coach Richt is on the hot seat is crazy. Yea we can go and get a Tressel or some other liar.
meek
July 8th, 2011
12:01 pm
GTU…really? Must be quite a fan of college football…or just another idiot Dawg fan.
Russ, the Temporary Mascot
July 8th, 2011
12:01 pm
Coach Richt should try sitting on a bag of ice. Works for me.
gomdawg
July 8th, 2011
12:02 pm
JUST ONE OF YOU NAME ME A DAMN COACH IF YOU FIRED COACH MARK, JUST ONE
Fan of the Game
July 8th, 2011
12:02 pm
Bill King wouldn’t know pressure if it bit him on the but. To even bring up this topic is crazy.
UGA1999
July 8th, 2011
12:02 pm
It is going to be interesting to see how many of the “Dream Class” freshman he plays this year. I think Crowell will play against Boise.
Fan of the Game
July 8th, 2011
12:02 pm
I meant butt!
Russ, the Temporary Mascot
July 8th, 2011
12:03 pm
The running backs kept stealing the ice last season.
Vancy Duly
July 8th, 2011
12:03 pm
I have nothing personal against Coach Bobo and get tired of the “bozo” nicknames, etc. BUT, regardless of how many points we averaged last year, his playcalling in the important games is a problem UNLESS our defense returns to prominence. We couldn’t outscore Auburn when that was our only chance to win, we couldn’t score against Central Florida (gag), we almost let GA Tech come back and win because we stopped doing what Tech was totally incapable of stopping, etc. (Tech didn’t stop our passing game – we did.) We run the same plays in predictable patterns, then wonder why the defense shuts it down! Specifically, if we throw an incomplete pass on 1st down, Bobo’s habit is to follow it with a run between the tackles. With our underperforming OL over the past 2 years, that usually left us with 3rd and long (forcing our inexperienced QBs into obvious passing downs). We run our 3rd string TB who weighs about 34 pounds up in the middle instead of using his speed to try to get outside, then wonder why our tiny tailback doesn’t produce results…….. We have a very athletic TE (Charles), yet he was an afterthought in the offense for most of 2010. How frustrating!
IF Coach Richt’s goal is to be a Top 5 program, we need a Top 5 offense and a Top 5 defense. Our defense should be vastly improved. BUT, does anyone really believe that Coach Bobo is one of the top 5 strategists and playcallers in the country!?!?! He seems to be a good QB coach, so let him do that…….. Coach Richt HAS to get involved with the offense IF Bobo will not overcome his own predictability.
Russ, the Temporary Mascot
July 8th, 2011
12:04 pm
Good advice for a new recruit: Don’t leave your watch in your locker.
DawginLex
July 8th, 2011
12:04 pm
Alabama will be the biggest dissappointment of the 2011 season. Just like 2010, they will be preseason #1 yet won’t win their own division.
RxDawg
July 8th, 2011
12:04 pm
“Fans need to remember… UGA is not and will never be Bama, LSU or UF.”
Well now I know to just skip right on over any of your future posts. Thanks for that.
Bob
July 8th, 2011
12:04 pm
@ J-Dawg. I had to use my secret decoder ring on your message, but I think you’re asking where we might find a better coach than Richt. If that’s correct, I think McGarity still has a copy of the short list he had at UF when Meyer announced a 30 day retirement. For $3M a year, I just don’t think we’ve been getting our money’s worth the past five seasons. Just my opinion, and thanks for being a loyal fan.
Mean Machine
July 8th, 2011
12:07 pm
With this schedule, the Dawgs SHOULD be 12-0 heading into the SEC Championship. The fact that we are discussing how many wins it will take to keep Richt from getting fired is a statement on the sad shape this program is in. As for myself, anything less than 10 wins, win the East, and beat UF and Richt has to go! I don’t think that’s being unreasonable.
Henderson
July 8th, 2011
12:08 pm
9 is the bare minimum…and I like Richt…But, I think he needs 10 to be completely safe, unless he manages to get into the SEC championship game with less, of course.
I'm Just Saying
July 8th, 2011
12:08 pm
Hey Bill…Saint Richt could go get more in tune with the ugump fan base by sponsoring a “beat up a disabled person day”…Stay classy mutts.
UGA1999
July 8th, 2011
12:08 pm
Everyone is forgetting about Boise….that is not going to be an easy game to start with.
RedPantsDawg
July 8th, 2011
12:08 pm
1 Win: The SEC East.
tide roll
July 8th, 2011
12:08 pm
Terrific mistakes evaluating talent in the recruitment of offensive line prospects. This lack of talent has led to attrition. This attrition, coupled with injuries, many pre-existing, has created virtually no depth. And facing this problem, to then bring in the 9th rated offensive line class in the conference (per Rivals) borders on outright negligence. And its a two edged sword. The in-state talent that was available is now starting for your competition, and playing key roles in getting you beat, directly (see Roke Watkins at S. Carolina), or indirectly (see Colorado and Central Fla.) The guy should go the way of Mike Shula, be an assistant, and coach qb(s) in the NFL.
Al
July 8th, 2011
12:09 pm
Coach Richt has to finish ranked in the top 20, or he’s absolutely gone.
10 wins or bust.
DawginLex
July 8th, 2011
12:09 pm
gomdawg
first, there is a button to the left of the “A” on your keyboard. hit that before your next post
Now regarding Richt, I have supported this coach and have been proud of the way he handles himself and the integrity he brings to the program and the on field results. However, the time has come for him to take it up a notch or he will need to leave. I will be the first to admit he is a victim of his own success. But if he doens’t win 10 games and beat a first year florida head coach, he needs to go.
Candidates?
Dan Mullen
Chris Peterson
Gus Malzahn
Kirby Smart
That is a realistic list and provides no guarantee of success but the fanbase/alumni/donors will demand a change.
GTgirl
July 8th, 2011
12:12 pm
@Somewhere over the Dwayne Bowe: I believe that the “GTU” they referred to would be in their minds “Georgia Tech University” However, that’s not the name of GT, it is Georgia Institute of Technology. But you can’t expect much out of UGA fans….
JacksonBr
July 8th, 2011
12:12 pm
I agree with the previous poster…Alabama will be the biggest disappointment of 2011, and I am a Bama fan/alumnus…I think we are set up perfectly for a disappointing year, particularly if we don’t settle on one quarterback…
UGA1999
July 8th, 2011
12:14 pm
GTgirl…ouch that was low.
allwehaveishope
July 8th, 2011
12:16 pm
Richt has to play in the SEC and win to stay.
just a fan
July 8th, 2011
12:16 pm
As I posted earlier CMR needs 9 wins and one of them to be vs florduh but we need to remember that we are relatively inexperienced and thin up front on our Oline this year who knows how well we will be able to run the ball this year. The only two question marks about this team IMHO are the safety’s and Oline other than that our skill positions, LB, DL, and QB are going to be just fine.
Flat Tire on I-95 in Jacksonville
July 8th, 2011
12:18 pm
DawginLex
Your posts are spot on
If we had just 10,000 fans like you our program would have more SEC championships
Instead we have to settle for 10 win seasons, $5 million coaching staffs, and a couple BCS appearances every 25 yrs or so
MattDawg
July 8th, 2011
12:19 pm
10, win the east, beat sc and fl. But for the most part I agree with whatthedawg
Lowcountry Bulldawg
July 8th, 2011
12:22 pm
I think he keeps the job at 9 wins ( with big conditions), but those L’s do not need to include UF, GT, SC. I think he can survive a 3 loss combo of Boise, Miss St and UT to reach 9 wins. Also two conference loses has you in the SEC TG more than likely.
If he does not win the Title he cannot afford to have the showing that South Carolina did and couple that with a bowl performance like they did also. He reaches the title game and then limps in like that to finish 9-5 and he is toast.
Wow
July 8th, 2011
12:22 pm
GTgirl and Dwayne Bowe wouldn’t know sarcasm if it bit Coach Fish Fry in the butt!
jsmtih
July 8th, 2011
12:23 pm
its going to be tough without an offensive line
Officer Doofy
July 8th, 2011
12:24 pm
How many more of these Richt on the hot seat/how many wins does he need articles are we gonna read before the season begins? I’ll set the over/under at 4.
Mean Machine
July 8th, 2011
12:25 pm
“Fans need to remember… UGA is not and will never be Bama, LSU or UF. We will always be competitive but never a dynasty. That is not how we are built.” – UGA Insider
UGA Insider, if you are truly a Dawg fan (which I have my doubts), then you are part of the problem why UGA is in the state that it is in. That is an absurd statement! Given everything UGA has (from recruiting base, money, facilities, curbside appeal, etc.), UGA has NO excuse for being on par with those programs!
Wow
July 8th, 2011
12:25 pm
I would expect no more from a typical Nerd fan thinking it’s “Ugag”. It’s UGA- the University of Georgia…..GOSH!!!
Why Wait?
July 8th, 2011
12:26 pm
Fire Richt and Bozo now. Put Grantham in charge for the season and let a young assistant make a name for himself at OC. At the very least the team would be prepared and aggressive and anyone calling plays would be less predictable than BoBo. Then Bring in Kirby next year.
honky talkin'
July 8th, 2011
12:28 pm
UGA starts 0-2. Dawgs don’t ever see the inside of the GA Dome again.
Valdosta DAWG
July 8th, 2011
12:28 pm
KeepMarkRicht.com
UGA1999
July 8th, 2011
12:29 pm
For all of the diehard UGA fans on this blog….how would you feel if Urban Meyer was brought as head coach next year?
claytondawg
July 8th, 2011
12:29 pm
Enough talk of CMR deserving another chance or he is a “nice guy.” If UGA truly has such financial stability, then shouldn’t UGA use it? Someone earlier mentioned the name of several probable coaches to replace Richt. Any one of those just may be a great candidate. Time to move on is NOW.