Dogs seem to be picking up some fans in Vegas

Are the Dogs a good bet in 2011?

Are the Dogs a good bet in 2011?

We’ve talked a lot here about the positives the Dogs have approaching the coming season (Aaron Murray, the tight ends and special teams, the arrival of big John Jenkins and the infusion of Dream Team freshman talent, especially at tailback) and the question marks (the offensive line, the safety position, conditioning, the future of the head coach).

And none of that really has changed since spring practice. But what does appear to have changed perceptibly is the view from outside the Bulldog Nation of just what sort of season Georgia is likely to have. As we’ve discussed here recently, we’re starting to see some preseason prognosticators picking the Dogs to stage a big turnaround from a losing season and win the SEC East.

The handicappers in Las Vegas are coming around, too. As Phil Steele noted in a recent post, Georgia is viewed as a favorite in all of its big games after the first two, and while they’re still rated underdogs against Boise State and South Carolina, the line has tightened considerably. Originally the Broncos were a 6-point favorite over Georgia, but now it’s down to just over 1 point. And the Gamecocks, formerly favored by 3 points, are now just a 1-point favorite.

All this is encouraging, but I’m still trying to keep my expectations for this season in check. How about you?

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134 comments Add your comment

McDawg

June 21st, 2011
10:55 am

they got the smarts out there in Vegas

Chris

June 21st, 2011
10:55 am

We shall see. First!!!

Chris

June 21st, 2011
10:56 am

South Carolina is having some of the problems this year that GA had last year. It could be the difference this year.

Dr. Morpheus

June 21st, 2011
11:04 am

That’s encouraging.

Nate the Great

June 21st, 2011
11:05 am

We have a chance but not getting my hopes up until we suit up and play some football. Alabama was supposed to be untouchable but lost three games last year and didnt even win their division. Plus as a dawg fan I’m a little tired of preseason chatter and want some mid-season hype.

I hope I’m wrong, but our oline plays like a bunch of 320+lb women. If we can’t win in the trenches and control the line of scrimmage, we won’t win 7 games.

Keep it in check dawg nation!!

Ray Pugh

June 21st, 2011
11:06 am

South Carolina is going to self destruct this year, to much hype. The only person attached to the program that can deal with the hype is Spurrier, and he hasn’t seen this type of hype since Fla. I can see the motto from UGA last year being used this year for South Carolina. I asked for change for my dollar, I looked down at 75cents and realized South Carolina can never give me a 4th quarter

math lesson

June 21st, 2011
11:09 am

odds arent based on who vegas thinks will win. they’re based on getting people to lay down bets. the spread narrowing from 6 points to 1 point just means a ton of people were betting on boise, not that vegas is buying into the annual preseason hype out of athens.

GTBob

June 21st, 2011
11:11 am

Vegas odds are mostly adjusted according to the current betting patterns. If UGA was a 6 point underdog and is now a 1 point underdog, then there were probably a lot of people betting on UGA after the opening line. It’s not really so much how Vegas feels about UGA as it is how betters are currently feeling about UGA which is probably a better metric anyways.

RiffRaff

June 21st, 2011
11:11 am

Is the Dawgs win the first two games then they will have an outstanding season. Win one of two – average season. Lose both – don’t want to think about it.

Alabamadawg

June 21st, 2011
11:12 am

I always believe the dawgs will go undefeated. Sorry, I’m just a positive thinking guy. Did the senior center, who left Arkansas ever find a new home ?

Time for a change!

June 21st, 2011
11:15 am

I’m keeping my expectations in check until after the South Carolina game as should most UGA fans!

Dawgfan1980

June 21st, 2011
11:20 am

The line movement means that the professional bettors were betting on UGA. Further proof is the fact that professionals were also betting UGA to go over on the total number of season wins. Vegas likes UGA this year. We will see if they are right.

JM

June 21st, 2011
11:21 am

When it come to the GA-Fl game, Vegas seems to be giving up on Georgia. Opened with Ga favored by 3, now has Georgia losing by 1.

JM

June 21st, 2011
11:22 am

Ga was favored to beat Co, MSU, SC, and lost them all.

Spanky

June 21st, 2011
11:24 am

This is encouraging IF coach Joe T can get these guys primed for 60 hard minutes of pure fight! It’s absolutely necessary to be ready and hungry IMMEDIATELY! I just hope our secondary comes along! Go Dawgs!!

JM

June 21st, 2011
11:25 am

Vegas has SC winning the SEC East with wins over Ga & Fl. That’s a correct line. Has Fl beating Ga to finish 2nd in SEC East. Also a correct line, Ga was favored in 2010 to beat Fl, caught Fl on a 3 game losing streak, and still figured out a way to lose (4 turnovers by Murray).

Dawgfan1980

June 21st, 2011
11:27 am

JM. Florida opened as a 3 point favorite, not UGA. Game is now a pick in most of the places you can bet these games now. All of these spreads will be different once the season starts.

You need a math lesson

June 21st, 2011
11:29 am

Math Lesson – Any one with common sense knows that if people are laying down money on Boise at 6 points that bringing down the line to 1 point would only make more people bet on Boise. If money is on Boise you raise the spread to 10 so the money goes on UGA. All of the money was on UGA and that’s why the spread was lowered. It’s obvious you didn’t attend UGA due to your lack of intellect

Remarkable

June 21st, 2011
11:31 am

I think that the Ga Dome will give UGA a home field advantage and that should be all the roll that they need to have a great season. As hard as UGA is working toward that game, don’t you know that “We get no respect” Boise State is working just as hard. And South Carolina is telling it’s players that Georgia is looking at Boise State and not preparing for their first SEC matchup. We’ll know by the middle of September what kind of season we are going to have.

Randall "Pink" Floyd

June 21st, 2011
11:32 am

Sad an inexcusable that we are ever underdogs to Boise or USCjr. This should never happen at Georgia. Coach needs to get the program back where we belong.

Randall "Pink" Floyd

June 21st, 2011
11:33 am

LOL. Math Lesson, I suggest you go take one.

Dawg Tell

June 21st, 2011
11:37 am

All this talk about the season expectations is a bunch of hype for the press and fans.History tells us to be careful with predicting what our Dawgs will do.I say let them all talk,but the team should JUST WIN BABY and everything will take care of itself.GO DAWGS!

CSA

June 21st, 2011
11:37 am

I’ll believe it when I see it.

Spanky

June 21st, 2011
11:37 am

Pink,…Nooooo really?!

JM

June 21st, 2011
11:39 am

Phil Steele is losing it. He predicted Ga would do great in 2010, and Ga finished 61st in the rankings and went 6-7.

He’s just trying to sell magazines, he knows a lot of readers are from Georgia.

JM

June 21st, 2011
11:40 am

Here’s my prediction, that’s been right 88%.

richt will lose more games than the year before.

It’s been right 7 out of last 8 seasons.

UGA Alumnus

June 21st, 2011
11:42 am

“All this is encouraging”

Bill,

How is any of that “encouraging”? What in the world does prognostication, especially at this point in the year, have to do with execution on the field?

We are encouraged because we’ve seen some good things happen in the off season, and we are encouraging because the Dawgs are our team, but there is nothing that can be said by the media
that can or should make us feel good about a season that hasn’t started.

DawginLex

June 21st, 2011
11:43 am

JM

Everyone missed their predictions on Georgia last year except for the idiot haters who have predicted 0-11 or 0-12 seasons for the last 10 years.

2010 They finally got close.

some other fine examples from these blogs:

Georgia will never beat Tech again(after45-42 win in 2008)
Georgia will never win the SEC again(before 2005 season after Greene graduated)
Spurrier will own UGA at SC just like he did at Florida(SOS 2-4 vs UGA at SC)

There are others too numerous to mention

DawginLex

June 21st, 2011
11:45 am

Next will be JM’s series of inane stats about UGA and Murray’s record versus winning teams.

Riddle me this Einstein:

What would have happened if UGA had not played so well against UT or UK last year? Would UT or UK have been a winning team?

JM

June 21st, 2011
11:45 am

Phil Steele can’t come up with a prediction better than mine, that’s been right 88% of the time on Richt over last 8 seasons (Richt loses more games than year before 88% of last 8 seasons).

Ron Smith

June 21st, 2011
11:48 am

Those oddsmakers must be a oblivious group to pick UGA at all this year. As much as I like UGA football I’m afraid they will have another losing season and Richt will be fired (I think he’s a very good coach and should not be replaced). However,if he already knew what needed to change why didn’t he do it last year? I’m very cautiously optimistic

JM

June 21st, 2011
11:48 am

Murray’s good against teams with losing records, except for Colorado of course, it’s the winning teams he has a hard time with, 0-6.

DawginLex

June 21st, 2011
11:49 am

Why only 8 seasons?
Convenient for your troll stats?

2001-8 wins
2002-13 wins

kinda wrecks your stat doesn’t it?

2003-11 wins(played 14 because won the East, got to ATL)
2004-10 wins(only an 11 game schedule, 1 less than prior year)
2005-10 wins(again only an 11 game schedule)

Figures don’t lie but liars figure.

Dawgfan1980

June 21st, 2011
11:49 am

It is encouraging because guys like Steve Fezzik and Billy Walters are moving the lines, and they know more about football and money than anyone reading this board. Doesn’t mean they are right about UGA, but they will be right on more teams than they are wrong. UGA still has to get it done on the field, but it is an encouraging sign. This isn’t media hype. This is real experts with big dollars. They are also heavy on Notre Dame and Tennessee. They are going heavy against Auburn.

nostrodamus

June 21st, 2011
11:49 am

Garcia will play for Spurrier, Garcia will have a bad game, lose to Georgia, and be supended for the rest of the season after Garcia’s first discretion.

Oompa Loompa

June 21st, 2011
11:54 am

Murray the the midget will be running for his life when he faces that big Carolina defensive line.

DawginLex

June 21st, 2011
11:54 am

JM

June 21st, 2011
11:55 am

Chris Low was right on Georgia last year.

He has Richt 8th in the SEC this season.

Looks about right.

Bottom feeder.

http://espn.go.com/blog/ncfnation/post/_/id/37984/early-2011-sec-power-rankings

DawginLex

June 21st, 2011
11:56 am

http://espn.go.com/blog/ncfnation/post/_/id/43363/sec-position-rankings-linebackers-2

**************************************************

UGA linebackers ranked ahead of SC and 4th overall in SEC

UGA Alumnus

June 21st, 2011
11:58 am

JM
June 21st, 2011
11:40 am

no way we only win 5 games this season.

no way.

spit and sputter

June 21st, 2011
11:58 am

Running backs at UGA always go down after the first touch.

DawginLex

June 21st, 2011
11:58 am

Richt has never won less than 10 games when returning a starting QB from the previous year.

Look for Murray to lead the Dawgs to big things in 2011

Oompa Loompa

June 21st, 2011
12:00 pm

murray is a freakin midget!

SSIgator

June 21st, 2011
12:01 pm

“Dogs seem to be picking up some fans in Vegas”

That would make sense. They have lost most of their fans in the South with their downward spiral. Wait until those Vegas guys taste that KoolAid.

HOUDAWG

June 21st, 2011
12:01 pm

Tend to agree w / Nate the Great — ready for on-the-field results versus what we ” hope ” to be .

First two games may well tell the tale of 2011 ……

aint conVinceD

June 21st, 2011
12:04 pm

Mark Richt and UGA is on a 3 year downward slide. Bet on it! Richts last year at UGA. Bet on it!

Good People

June 21st, 2011
12:07 pm

Just nine more days for the 1 year anniversary of the red pantie escapade.

vegas guy

June 21st, 2011
12:08 pm

GTBob is right

The money line ebbs and flows based on perception in an effort to get above a 50/50 juice.

I’ll tell you this right now: if the Dawgs beat Boise State convincingly and are favored at home vs. South Carolina -3, if you’re smart you put your money on South Carolina! However if they lose to Boise State, yet are favored at home come kickoff time vs. South Carolina by say -4.5…then I’m putting my money HEAVY on UG and watch as they destroy USC!! LOL…

I remember last season, the Dawgs were favored at home vs. UT like -11 and everyone thought that was crazy considering how they were 1-4 and coming off a loss to Colorado while UT just lost a heartbreaker vs. a good LSU team. But I put money on the -11 because I knew UGA’s offense was due for a breakout game while that the Vols would come out flat after the heartbreaker the week before. Both turned out to be right. Those are the best games, when you put money on your team and they kick butt. Conversely, the worst games to watch are the ones where you know your team is going to lose, and you bet against them because you know that’s the right pick. Even when you win money, it just sucks.

DawginLex

June 21st, 2011
12:11 pm

Which comment of mine needs to be “moderated”?

I’m just having some fun with our resident TROLL who changes his blog handle daily and posts the same stats everyday!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

red&silver

June 21st, 2011
12:15 pm

vegas guy

June 21st, 2011
12:08 pm
GTBob is right

The money line ebbs and flows based on perception in an effort to get above a 50/50 juice.

I’ll tell you this right now: if the Dawgs beat Boise State convincingly and are favored at home vs. South Carolina -3, if you’re smart you put your money on South Carolina! However if they lose to Boise State, yet are favored at home come kickoff time vs. South Carolina by say -4.5…then I’m putting my money HEAVY on UG and watch as they destroy USC!! LOL…

I remember last season, the Dawgs were favored at home vs. UT like -11 and everyone thought that was crazy considering how they were 1-4 and coming off a loss to Colorado while UT just lost a heartbreaker vs. a good LSU team. But I put money on the -11 because I knew UGA’s offense was due for a breakout game while that the Vols would come out flat after the heartbreaker the week before. Both turned out to be right. Those are the best games, when you put money on your team and they kick butt. Conversely, the worst games to watch are the ones where you know your team is going to lose, and you bet against them because you know that’s the right pick. Even when you win money, it just sucks.

I loaded up on that Tenn. game also and, my friends thought I was crazy. I’ve noticed that too. It was a USC game the year before against Oregon St. where the line was so low you had to take the Trojans but I bet with Oregon St. and won big.