Dogs drawing mixed predictions in SEC race
If Aaron Murray can lead the Dogs past South Carolina, just how far can Mark Richt's team go? (Brant Sanderlin / AJC)
Amid all the speculation about Jim Tressel being toast and Will Muschamp’s Gators being toasted (giving new meaning to the “Florida Way”!), some college football observers have been paying a bit of attention to Mark Richt’s 2011 Dogs, who seem to have become something of a dark horse favorite in the SEC East.
As I wrote last week, Georgia has a high-risk start to its season that could pay off big, opening with Boise State and South Carolina. And while the game against the Broncos has the higher profile, the meeting in Athens with the Gamecocks could have more impact on UGA’s season, since a win there would put the Dogs in the driver’s seat in a division where Florida and Tennessee are rebuilding and Kentucky and Vandy are Kentucky and Vandy.
Barrett Sallee of College Football News says that with “the quarterback issues at South Carolina, the offensive ineptitude that Florida showed in its spring game, and the way Georgia’s schedule shapes up, the SEC East is there for Georgia’s taking. If the Bulldogs beat South Carolina the second week of the season, they absolutely have to get to Atlanta. They don’t play Arkansas, LSU and Alabama this season — the three primary contenders in the SEC West. Plus they get Auburn and Mississippi State, the next two in line on the other side of the division, at home. Sure, the Florida game in Jacksonville is always a tough matchup for the Bulldogs, but even if they lose that game, it’s hard to find two more losses on the schedule, provided that they get past the Gamecocks.”
Loading ...That’s a fairly underwhelming assessment considering that as poorly as Georgia played overall last season the Dogs still managed to finish third in the SEC East.
We haven’t done a poll in a while here, so let’s see if Blawg readers are as pessimistic as those at the CBS site, or whether you’re thinking the CFN view is closer to the mark. Feel free to vote in the poll, comment, or do both.
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398 comments Add your comment
Mobile Dawg
April 26th, 2011
10:43 pm
This team has had to many weaknesses that are attributed “directly” to coaching to be able to turn everything around in one year. The MO of this team is showing up unprepared to play. Figuratively speaking you can’t change the spots on a dawg. As much as Richt wants to change he’s a creature of habits and more times than not we just can’t change long term. History of this coach says even if we show up and play hard in some big games, there will be let downs in others. I hate to sound negative but as I’ve said before i’m a realist, not a koolaid addict.
10cents and a cup of coffee
April 27th, 2011
12:04 am
Drink the Kool-Aid, follow the leader, the sun is coming up tomorrow.
Here is a more realist approach to the 2011 season:
East
USC- can win as many as 11, could lose as many as 4, more realistic is wins 10
UGA- can win as many as 10, could lose as many as 6, more realistic is wins 9
UF- can win as many as 10, could lose as many as 5, more realistic is wins 9
UT- can win as many as 9, could lose as many as 6, more realistic is wins 7
Kentucky- can win as many as 8, could lose as many 7, more realistic wins 6
Vandy- can wins as many as 3, could lose as many as 11, more realistic 3 wins
Alabama, can win as many as 12, could lose as many as 3, more realistic 11 wins
LSU, can win as many as 12, could lose as many as 3, more realistic 11 wins
Mississippi St, can win as many as 10, could lose as many as 4, more realistic 9 wins
Arkansas, can wins as many as 10, could lose as many as 5, more realistic 9 wins
Ole Miss, can win as many as 8, could lose as many as 7, more realistic 7 wins
Auburn, cans win as many as 7, could lose as many as 7, more realistic 6 wins
If UGA loses to Boise St, the game against USC holds CMR’s job in his winning that game, and the old ball coach will do everything in his power to win that game.
The whole program at UGA is on a collision course with being pretty good and pretty bad, depending on those first two games.
RED DOG 77
April 27th, 2011
12:58 am
@Bill King………..I hope you’re reading this dude: Congratulations!!! You can’t say I’m not fair Bill, Good story, had some “real” red meat in it, interesting research, better than average comments. I’m not going to be ugly and say you out-did yourself, I’ll just be honest and say………Job well done!………Regards, RED
RED DOG 77
April 27th, 2011
1:04 am
@Bill King………..Oh, and by the way, Dogs win the East, win 10 regular season games, beats Florida, South Carolina, Auburn ect………loses a close one to Miss. State…….and absolutely hammers Georgia Tech………Thats All……..RED
Altamaha
April 27th, 2011
7:18 am
Did I actually read somebody said McGarity would fire Richt after 2 games (if lost) because he had such a history of doing that kind of thing at UF? I missed those Sept. firing down there I guess.
The moaning will be very load, the pressure will be ratcheted up if he loses the first 2, but if those games were spread out, losing to a top 10 ten team and one loss in the SEC, that would only be what everybody lese is likely to have by mid season. And There aren’t many teams in the nation that would win both of those games. Could lose those and still be 5-2 headed to UF. Now, if he drops one more before UF, loses that one, and one more after, we are looking for a new coach.
The only way 0-2 seals his fate though, is that if that was part of the overall picture of a bad year.
Personally, I think you guys are giving SC way too much credit. The won the east at 5-3.
GMan
April 27th, 2011
7:38 am
Richt gets fired after starting 0-2. Grantham then takes over and leads the team to a 7-5 finish, going 7-2.
UGA loses to SC, Boise, Auburn, Miss St., and Florida.
Columbus Dawg
April 27th, 2011
8:08 am
In reading an ESPN blog about Aaron Murray this morning, I discovered that the AJC blogs are not the only blogs trolled by the toothless critters known as Alabama Crimson Tide fans. By the way, who came up with that stupid nickname for a college football team? Anyway, it amazes me how much they know about Georgia’s football team. Now these posts were not made by Tide Roll, unless of course he was using another handle, but they all read pretty much the same way that his posts do, not just about Georgia’s OL, but these guys seemed to know every shortcoming that Murray will have in the 2011 season, along with many other reasons why Georgia should just not even try and field a team this year. I guess that scrawny little QB at Bama did not warrant an article or blog, so they felt that they had to make sure everyone saw their expertise on UGA’s QB, and team in general.
All I can say is, if the Dawgs can win the East this year, I hope to goodness that the boys with the laundry detergent win the West, so that we all can see how much they know about Georgia football. After all they did finally get a win over Georgia in 2008 when the Dawgs had more injuries in one year than they have had in the era of modern college football.
If someone were to give the United States an enema, they would have to go in through the state of Alabama.
Pago Pago DAWG
April 27th, 2011
8:11 am
UGA always has a Top 15 recruiting class every year, the coaches just seem to be in over their heads.
Win P.
April 27th, 2011
8:12 am
Seems like we have been down this road several times (the past 3 years), predicted to do better but manage to do worst. How many times do we buy this “turkey”?
mark twain
April 27th, 2011
8:41 am
WELL LOOK OUT. ITS THAT TIME OF YEAR WHEN THE nerds COME OUT WITH THEIR CRY BABY TACTICS. AFTER LOSING 6-4 LAST NIGHT, NOW WE ONLY HEAR ABOUT HOW GREAT THEIR ACADEMICS ARE TO THE REST OF THE WORLD. LET SEE IT TAKES A FOOTBALL PLAYER FROM UGA TO FLUNK OUT OF OUR SCHOOL THEN TRANSFER TO tech AND THEN GRADUATE FROM THAT SCHOOL AT NORTH AVENUE. THAT TELLS ME ALL I NEED TO KNOW. GO CHECK IT OUT IT TRULY DID HAPPEN. 10-4 TIL LATER MY DAWG COMRADES.
10cents and a cup of coffee
April 27th, 2011
9:22 am
Columbus Dawg,
WOW! Do you really think we are even close to the talent level, coaching, work ethic, and discipline of the Tiders? We are light years away. Look at our three deep roster, look at theirs. They are DEEP. Along with LSU, those two are much more talented than the third team( Florida)
then maybe us tied with USC, Tennessee and MSU.
We will be better, but not yet for prime time. Richt keeps his job, but he has more tweaking to do with his staff.
I will be happy at 9-3.
10cents and a cup of coffee
April 27th, 2011
9:26 am
GMAN,
Auburn is going to be HORRIBLE. If we lose to them at home, Richt deserves to be fired. This Auburn team will be the least talented team in the west. Too many holes to fill, by players with no experience.
10cents and a cup of coffee
April 27th, 2011
9:28 am
Mobile Dawg..
Well said.
Mobile Dawg
April 27th, 2011
9:35 am
10 cents, I used to have that optimism every year, hoping this could be the year. Truth is we could be 11-2, or 6-7 again, or anything in between. Richt will be judged on consistency as much as his record this year.
AltamahaDawg
April 27th, 2011
9:35 am
Auburn, Gman? you need to actually read a football related article every now and then.
AltamahaDawg
April 27th, 2011
9:50 am
Agreed, it’s not the Win total that will be the determining factor, it’s the product on the field. Could lose in an entertaining early novelty game, as long as they don’t look outclassed. Then could lose a close fought conference game. Uga would be the underdog going in. As long the team looks like it gave full effort, and just got beat by a better team, nobody is getting fired. Particularly if it was obvious the problem(s) was in an area that has been addressed,just not up to speed yet, and more answers on the way Via the expected 2012 class.
If the problem is they just simply fell down late in the game on both sides, that’s a different story.
For the record I do not think they will lose both, but the reality is: McGarity retained Richt full well knowing that UGA would be favored to win either of the first 2 games. He has already factored in the high percentage (that’s what not favored means) that they will drop 1 or 2.
AltamahaDawg
April 27th, 2011
9:51 am
not be
Ohio-on-the-Gulf Dog
April 27th, 2011
10:05 am
I have to believe the ‘Dogs who show up at the Dome September 3 will have nothing in common with the ‘Dogs who showed up in Memphis December 31, except some of the names.
The 2011 version should be sky high on Labor Day, and ready to kick some tail.
If not, it’ll be a long, long autumn.
Ohio-on-the-Gulf Dog
April 27th, 2011
10:11 am
Labor Day weekend, that should be.
Mobile Dawg
April 27th, 2011
10:43 am
No reason the Dawgs should be outclassed or manhandled by anyone. Beaten by a better team yes. Boise No, we should be superior in size, strength, quickness, and talent. USC always plays us tough, regardless of personnel. I don’t think QB will be a big issue for Spurrier with the young guy. We should be 1-1 at the worst after the first two. If we play like we’re capable of playing 2-0 could be the result. I can’t even speculate or get my hopes up. I’m “seriously” tired of the Richt “inconsistency”. Hopefully he gets things under control. I know i’m not planning any weekends around the television this year, hopefully no oil spills come our way and I will be spending a lot of time at the Gulf.
Maybe How2fish and I catch a few.
AltamahaDawg
April 27th, 2011
10:44 am
Come on now, be fair. Every year till now, you hoped this was the year? really? I’ve been a Dawg fan since the 60’s and I can honesty say that more years than not, I did NOT believe deep down that this “was going to be the year”. OK as a kid, but sticking to my adult years, i did not. Hoped yes, (otherwise what is the point of the exercise), but being a realist as you say, you cannot honesty say that you believed it up till this very year. And certainly not before Richt got here, except for a few years here and there. Disappointed with current status? Everybody is, but let’s also have some perspective that it was this Coach that set the expectations to even be disappointed in. He didn’t wreck a 40 year run of eternal hope this was The Year.
If that the issue, there are WAY more reason to be hopefull this year.
AltamahaDawg
April 27th, 2011
11:01 am
Playing the percentages, there isn’t going to be any oil spills for a while. I’ll be DVRing a few myself, while I’m in the boat. Specially those lovely 12:00 kickoffs.
DawginLex
April 27th, 2011
11:10 am
there were years under goff where I knew we were going to suck. I was excited about 1991 after the 1990 debacle. We went 8-3. I was really excited about 1992 and we underachieved. I believe 1992 was the reason Wayne Mcduffie ultimately killed himself. He thought that team was national title worthy and they choked. I don’t think he ever got over it. He was a great coach.
This team reminds me of 1993 or 1994. Great QB, pretty good skill people,questions on defense. If our defense is good, the sky is the limit with this schedule. If our defense is no better than a year ago, richt will get fired after another 6 or 7 win season.
Columbus Dawg
April 27th, 2011
11:11 am
My first point was that I doubt that there were Dawg fans all over the Bama blogs when they were having a tough time of it claiming to know all about the reasons for their shortcomings.
As for the latter comments, Richt has had UGA football at a very high level more than once since he’s been in Athens, and I doubt very seriously that he has forgotten what it takes. I know for a fact, from the mouths of more than one large UGA atheletic money supporter that Richt was told that the off the field foolishness was going to stop, immediately. Before I knew about some of the individual players who have said to be some of the problem children, I have to admit that I was surprised by some of the names that were being thrown around as being bad eggs, but I do believe that the holdover players that will be counted on this year have grown up some, and that hopefully some new leaders have emerged, other than the names that we see here everyday.
I am, like everyone else, holding my breath for the first headline to come out about a player arrest or suspension, but for some reason I just have a better feeling about all that this time around. It has to be encouraging to hear that Caleb King has had a good spring, and that it looks like he might actually give a crap after all, and I don’t believe for a minute that Ealey is going anywhere. We need these two to step up, mature, and lead this stable of backs that are already in Athens to be the kind of running team we want to be. I think just sitting back and waiting on the arrival of I. Crowell would be a mistake. Let’s just say that I am cautiously optimistic about the Dawgs chances this year, but I’m not going to sit back and listen to a whole lot of B.S out of the mouths of a bunch of D.A. Alabama fans, or Auburn for that matter because Mark Richt has more than held his own against both of these teams in his tenure.
Go Dawgs!
April 27th, 2011
11:13 am
I love how many of the so-called “experts” on this blog think Boise St is going to just come in and blow out the Dawgs simply because of their performance in a bowl that obviously many of the players cared little about being in, and that was as close to a BCS bowl as UCF will get to.
Boise’s offense has lost some major teeth with the departure of Petrus and Young at WR. Everyone thinks losing AJ is blow to us, but no one talks about the impact of those two on BST.
Kellen Moore will come back down to earth on Sept. 3.
Also, anyone consider the fact that their center is like 6′3 265 and will be going against not one but a fresh rotation of two 6′5 350+ NGs?
If you want a preview of how that game is going to go go back and take a look at what happened the last time Boise played UGA.
AltamahaDawg
April 27th, 2011
11:18 am
Donnnan never lead me to believe they were going all the way either. Loved the man, but take away a few years, I always expected Dooley to drop a few surprise losses, especially his last few years.
PB
April 27th, 2011
11:19 am
Go Dawgs!……
I’m glad you’re counting on a team 6 yrs ago with a crap QB as your measuring stick. Don’t you know these kids graduate, LOL.
I hope Richt doesn’t think the way you do or this will be worse than the 42-10 game i’m thinking with Boise’s 3rd stringers in at 3rd qtr.
AltamahaDawg
April 27th, 2011
11:24 am
I would bet the farm on 2 things:
Richt is not underestimating BS.
BS ain’t playing thier 3rd stringer in the 3rd quarter.
Mobile Dawg
April 27th, 2011
12:08 pm
There you go Alt, putting words in my mouth. Just to dot the I’s and cross the T’s for you since you don’t read between the lines, as a Dawg for “just” over 40 years I have always been excited. For a lot of reasons since Richt has been here that excitement has been decreasing, I have even been pessimistic, questioned his philosophy, game planning, game decisions and strategy, and have voiced those issues, especially the last 3 or 4. For me it’s not about winning the MNC every year like it is for the Bama fans. It’s about being competetive, spirited, having fun. If you line up and beat me, OK. If you beat yourself with “stupid” decisions, poor coaching, lack of discipline, poor game plans, well, I don’t want your excuses, just fix it. Even through the years most would classify as “great” Richt has managed to lose “his” opportunity to get to the big game by poor game day decisions even an old worn out “college QB” like myself question.
As Columbus Dawg pointed out, and these are my words, not his “this program has been out of control” for several years. As I have pointed out before and you have refused to buy into, over the years the “culture” has digressed to the low of last year. When you bring a new person into the environment they take on the traits of those surrounding them. That’s why we saw a slow gradual deterioration in the beginning, then the bottom just fell out.
AltamahaDawg
April 27th, 2011
12:28 pm
NP. But to be exact: I am not “putting words” in your mouth” as much as I took you too literal at your words.
You are saying that you are a realist, not a koolaid addict, but then turned around around and said , and I quote…….”I used to have that optimism every year, hoping this could be the year”. I am simply pointing out……..one or the other of those literally cannot be the case.
You giving me further explanation of what you “meant” is hardly a case of me putting words in your mouth. I am using your words.
AltamahaDawg
April 27th, 2011
12:37 pm
BTW, when have I EVER refused to admit anything about this program? You cannot quote me doing anything close to that. I am the VERY one saying the culture was off, and before it was the cool thing to say. Now you are putting words in my mouth.
I went through a very elaborate theory of just that, right here. It’s just a lot more complicated to me, than the name of the coach.
Mobile Dawg
April 27th, 2011
1:00 pm
Just a little fun there Alt, no worries, I know you’re a very structured person and did take my words for what they said. What I mean is that my expectations are for a season of fun and competition. A MNC would be the whipped cream and strawberries on top of my chocolate pie, my greatest expectation is to give a good showing. I was still a kid at 24 during the “magical” season of 1980. I don’t take it nearly as seriously as just a couple of years ago.
I was however poked pretty hard (by you) a while back when I laid out a rough roadmap of how the culture in Athens slowly but surely went awry. The players during years 1-4 of CMR’s stint were from the old school, culture wise. Years 3 through 7 players passing through learned from players who were there or had been exposed to those earlier ones. Players in years 7 through 10 had no real role models to fall in behind as to what the old culture was in Athens. Absence of a “Head Coach” with strong influence, and strict guidelines I believe it was left to the players to build the culture according to what they had experienced in the past and brought with them.
That now must change. Look at what Nick Saban has done at Alabama in three years. Like him or not there’s no question of who’s in charge or do they have discipline.
AltamahaDawg
April 27th, 2011
1:10 pm
I predict: as painfull as 2010 was, that season will serve Richt in the long run of his coaching career as much as any he will ever have. The big question now is, will Georgia gain from it. Somebody will, and we paid for it. Florida is going to pay this same price with Muschamp. In time, he will hit the exact same deal. Kirby Smart is going to cost somebody. (which Is why I can’t understand why anyone here, would opt to do it all over with those particualr guys). We should have done what Alabama did, and just used OPM, But this is where we are.
AltamahaDawg
April 27th, 2011
1:28 pm
Do you seriously not remember me saying the EXACT same thing as you just described? about the classes and the next one
AltamahaDawg
April 27th, 2011
1:28 pm
Are you fishing for shark in my by-catch trail?
AltamahaDawg
April 27th, 2011
1:30 pm
I do like Saban, I wish our coach had a 10 yr head start and 3 HC jobs before he got here too.
Go Dawgs!
April 27th, 2011
1:35 pm
PB – Get your head out of the clouds. Go back and look at the tape of your team. Kellen Moore many times simply just chucked the ball in the air deep and Petrus or Young would go and get the ball. The reports out of BS’s spring game were that the defense was having their way with the offense and Moore was strugling. Hmmmm wonder why that is.
I’m quite aware btw that BOTH teams had different players when Boise and UGA last met. My point was like the last time, Boise had all this hype, Zabransky LIKE Moore was an early heisman favorite. Just like last time everyone is saying how can UGA possibly handle the speed and agility of Boise.
Anyway PB, I can show you better than I can tell you. Just make sure you’re here on Sept 4. BTW, how do you take your crow, fried or baked?
Mobile Dawg
April 27th, 2011
2:15 pm
I don’t remember, but I don’t have time to read all the posts that come through so I probably missed it. I hope for above all, you to be correct and Richt to right the ship, although I’m not sure I can ever accept his offensive philosophy. I will probably never get over the 3 and out against Auburn in 05 that probably cost us that game and a shot at a MNC.
If we do have to change coaches hopefully McGarity does his homework and can find a guy “like a” Joey Jones at South Alabama. I read with amusement a lot of the posts about the USA program when it was announced that we will play them in 2014. He’s not a “high profile” guy, but a builder of programs from the foundation up. And he comes complete with a “pedigree” for success due to his background and experience.
I would rather fail with a guy like him than a Rich Rod or someone similar. I don’t fish for shark, last one I hooked almost took me over the side.
AltamahaDawg
April 27th, 2011
3:15 pm
As I recall, at one point late, we were down pretty close to scoring which would have iced that game, and our normally reliable FB inexplicable fumbled, so it’t not always philosophical breakdown.
Mobile Dawg
April 27th, 2011
3:27 pm
Come on Alt, 7 minutes left in the game, 1st and 10, Richt calls 3 passing plays, all 3 incomplete, punts, AU scores with seconds left after a 4th and 15 completion. That’s not philosophical, that’s “stupid”.
ClinchCountyDawg
April 27th, 2011
3:59 pm
Dawgs have a chance to win every game next year as long as they stay healthy and catch a few breaks. No team on their schedule is a dominating top ten team. But, UGA could start as few as 4 seniors and will be awesome in 2012.
AltamahaDawg
April 27th, 2011
5:58 pm
Well Great news! I can exorsize those demons from you forever. No need to forget. That never happened. I’m looking at the game notes right now.
At nine minutes, Southerland fumbled and AU runs in for a TD to take the lead. We did have to punt on the next possesion, but only after a 25 yrd opening reception. How do you know they were going to run the ball successfully there? Either way it wasnt some quick 3 and out to give AU a chance to win. Auburn had to punt right back after that.
The thing you missing is that UGA got the ball back at 5 minutes and scored to take the lead. Complete pass on 1st, 14 yards. Incomplete pass on 1st, penalty, 3 straight runs, burned 3 minutes, scored, and pinned AU deep, held and to put them in an impossible 4th and long.
It just flat didn’t happen as you describe. Look it up.
Altamaha
April 27th, 2011
9:57 pm
BTW, we were #9 going into that game, and USC/TX finished 12-0. We had no shot at a MNC.
Mobile Dawg
April 27th, 2011
10:20 pm
With a big smile on my face, I’m having crow for dessert. Kind of reminds me of the “blackout”. We did have one of those didn’t we? You’re right, the drive that somehow imaged itself in my memory was at 9:28 with us trailing by one. I’m laying the blame squarely on my then future wife, an AU graduate, who didn’t let me forget that night for quite a while. That and maybe a couple of cold ones. Thanks for setting the record straight.
Mobile Dawg
April 27th, 2011
10:22 pm
The fourth and long is the most painful memory, the floor’s still shaking from her jumping up and down. I kept telling myself to pull a Paul Johnson and let them score so we could get the ball back.
Altamaha
April 27th, 2011
11:03 pm
I was at both. That AU receiver ran straight at where we were sitting. Yea that was a tough call to lay down and let them walk it in, or not. To let them score there gives us more time, but puts them up a TD instead of the FG we would have needed. and there was a chance they miss thier FG attempt. Not really very good odds either way. Still one of the more entertaining games I had been to in a while.
That is untill the Blackout. Single best time in Sanford Stadium since Butler beats Clemson.
AU always been my favorite game. Even this past year just puts a little more heat into it.
I don’t think they are going to be nearly as some good as folks are assuming, but better than they probably should be, given what they lost in starters.
AltamahaDawg
April 27th, 2011
11:08 pm
I dated a little cutie from Dothan in college. Former Miss LA. I understand the clouded memories.
DawgVoiceofReason
April 30th, 2011
3:06 pm
DawginLex,
I really find it hard to believe the McGarity or any AD for that matter would tell his Coaching staff, “that an 0-2 start gets them fired.” I mean come on, do you think any serious person in a position of authority would make that kind of ultimatum and place that much emphasis on two games? You do realize that Boise is likely to be a pre-season top 10 team and that USC was last year’s SEC East champ? And, if it were to happen, that the team started off 0-2, would he fire them right then or let them continue knowing there jobs were lost?
Where do you get your information from? You might want to check your sources.