Big Blue fan pulls a reverse in previewing Dogs-Cats
Aaron Murray being a two-way threat for the Dogs will be a big plus. (Brant Sanderlin / AJC)
I think I’ve mentioned here before that my old friend Herb Steely could give lessons to Vince Dooley when it comes to building up your opponent.
Herb has spent most of his life in Atlanta but hails from the land of the bluegrass and loves the Kentucky Wildcats. Of course, nine times out of 10 his conversations in that regard will relate to basketball, not football.
Just your typical UK fan, as Randall Cobb might say.
I always like to see how the other side thinks, so I checked in with Herb this week to find out what he makes of Saturday night’s pigskin meeting between the Cats and Georgia’s Bulldogs.
“You guys are not gonna lose another game this year,” Herb declared flatly. “In my opinion, you guys have turned the corner. I’m real impressed with your team.”
Now, wait a minute. Kentucky just game off a big win over Steve Spurrier’s South Carolina Gamecocks, who beat the Dogs. The Cats have the SEC’s No. 2 scoring offense, the No. 2 passing quarterback in Mike Hartline plus Cobb, who’s been Mr. Everything — he catches, runs, throws and returns. The Cats have beaten Georgia two out of the past four years and came thisclose in another.
Georgia has to keep Randall Cobb under control or it could get ugly. (Associated Press)
“Yeah,” Herb said. “We can make a game of it if [Derrick] Locke’s able to play. [He isn't expected to, due to a shoulder injury.] But without him, I just don’t think Cobb can carry the whole load — not against Georgia. Hartline is a decent quarterback, a good short passer. But our lines are both questionable. And our first halves have been terrible.”
Bottom line, Herb says: Georgia wins.
I hope he’s right. And I wish I could be as confident about Mark Richt’s team’s chances as Herb is. But the game in Lexington looks to be much more of a challenge for the Dogs than the past two weeks were.
On paper, this appears to be a likely shootout. Kentucky is second in the SEC in scoring, averaging 35.3 points per game, but their defense has given up an average of 27 points per game, tops in the conference. In their three conference losses, Florida scored 48, Ole Miss (!) scored 42 and Auburn scored 37 in a squeaker over the Cats.
The Wildcats rank 119th out of 120 nationally in red zone defense. Still, Georgia needs to make sure that on its trips into the red zone it doesn’t have to settle for field goals too often. The good news is that the Dogs should be able to run on the Cats, who have the next-to-worst rushing defense in the SEC. And that will open things up for A.J. Green, Tavarres King and Kris Durham. Georgia’s Aaron Murray being a threat with both his arm and his feet will help, too.
Hartline, on the other hand, isn’t much of a threat to run. Fortunately for him, he’s mostly been able to stay in the pocket, and his offensive line, which Herb doesn’t think much of, has yielded the fewest number of sacks in the SEC. Also, the Cats often snap the ball to Cobb in the “WildCobb” formation, and he’s extremely dangerous, as the Dogs have seen the past two years. But with Locke out, the Cats’ running game shouldn’t be a major factor, so it’ll come down to Kentucky’s pretty profiicient passing game.
The key is going to be whether Georgia’s suspect secondary can withstand the aerial assault by the Cats, who throw more than any other team in the conference. Besides Cobb, Hartline has a big target in in 6-foot-5 Chris Matthews, who’s caught six touchdown passses.
After watching Hartline make some impressive throws in the second half against the Gamecocks last week, I’m really hoping the Dogs’ safeties finally have internalized Todd Grantham’s schemes and don’t get caught going the wrong way too often. Remember those times this year when Georgia has been burned by the wheel route? Cobb’s an expert at it.
I think it comes down to this: If Washaun Ealey is productive on the ground, Georgia doesn’t turn over the ball (like it did in last year’s horrific loss to the Cats in Athens) and the Dogs’ defense doesn’t give up too many big plays, Murray’s scrambling ability and Blair Walsh’s leg should spell the difference.
Georgia is favored by 3 ½. That sounds about right to me.
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111 comments Add your comment
NC Dawg
October 22nd, 2010
12:42 pm
Bold prediction: Auburn loses to Georgia. I feel another 2006 game. Auburn favored heavily and Georgia completely dominated. Repeat 2010. Go DAWGS!
Down with Dawgs
October 22nd, 2010
12:44 pm
Cats vs Dogs…Cats win. Sorry UGA fans.
SHUT UP
October 22nd, 2010
12:46 pm
I am getting so sick and tired of “dawg fans” bI*ching about everything. If you watched the games this year, you know that all of the loses could have easily have have been wins if it wasn’t for one or two mistakes by the players. I agree that Richt could try to make players more disciplined, but mistakes still happen. Its a part of the game. Replacing Richt will put us in the same situation as Tennesse as far as rebuilding the program and trying to find recruits and it looks like Tennesse is going to down in the dumps for a while. Just have faith in your team and continue to support them. The Dawgs will bounce back!
Dan Mullen and the #24 ranked bulldogs
October 22nd, 2010
12:54 pm
Lets go bulldogs, hope UGA can pull it out but don’t sleep on kentucky cause they won last year
11 Arrests 3 Wins
October 22nd, 2010
1:02 pm
Still got time for an arrest or two.
Kentucky Kat
October 22nd, 2010
1:02 pm
GO BIG BLUE!!!
edumacated
October 22nd, 2010
1:05 pm
I sure wouldn’t bet the farm on a Georgia win Saturday. I can’t get Colorado out of my head.
Coachdawg 2000
October 22nd, 2010
1:08 pm
I do not feel good about this one. We need to take the air out of the ball and play Dooley-esque three runs and controlled passing to use up clock and keep Cobb,Matthews, and the restof the offense on the sidelines.
Hmmm
October 22nd, 2010
1:11 pm
@NC Dawg — Don’t think so this year… I love the Dawgs but we won’t stop AU this year.
Ted Striker
October 22nd, 2010
1:16 pm
Nice column, Bill.
roughrider
October 22nd, 2010
1:40 pm
I’m surprised we are favored by 3 1/2.
Dr Morpheus
October 22nd, 2010
1:54 pm
I like Bill’s analysis of this one. Having moved from cautiously pessimistic (Tennessee) to cautiously optimistic (Vandy), I’m going to go out on a limb to recklessly optimistic and say UGA wins handily…or better…. The key will be Kentucky’s first few series where they will probably try to make us take the run seriously.
Greg
October 22nd, 2010
1:55 pm
I realize UK has played Auburn close and beat South Carolina(after SC had racked up 370 yards…that’s right, 370…in the first half when Lattimore was in the game) in the past 2 games, but their first 5 games included the following: a close win over a bad Louisville team, blowout’s over creampuffs Western KY and Akron, getting routed by UF(the only game all year where UF’s offense has done much of anything) and a loss at Ole Miss(when the Rebs had previously lost to Jacksonville State and Vandy).
Kentucky is usually good for one upset at home per year of an unsuspecting opponent and they accomplished that with their 2nd half comeback last week. UGA is a 5-2 or 6-1 with a healthy AJ Green all year long. Before you mention Colorado, he was only healthy for half of that game and we were up 10 points when he went out.
UGA crushed two lower division teams the past two weeks. I don’t expect that kind of result, but the Dawgs should win this game by 10-14 points. Like last year, turnovers is the only thing that can keep UK in the game.
Evansdawg
October 22nd, 2010
2:06 pm
This game is exactly like the Texas A&M bowl game last year. UK is a threat, but if the Dawgs establish the run to soften the field, they should control the clock and keep Cobb off the field as much as possible. 3.5 points sounds about right to me, but if the Dawgs establish some rhythm, it could be a long night for the Cats in Lexington.
SOUTHGADAWG88
October 22nd, 2010
2:24 pm
We should score a bunch of points.
Minnesota Dawg
October 22nd, 2010
2:26 pm
I think the dawgs are better than their record says. I think they are better than South Carolina and Arkansas. I’m not sure about Auburn. Florida is an interesting game that we need to take advantage of. I’m looking for them to build more momentum in Kentucky and then run the table!
1eyedJack
October 22nd, 2010
2:30 pm
Right now UF is preparing for UGA. Don’t like it when they have an extra week to prepare.
Chris Petersen
October 22nd, 2010
2:49 pm
I will be the Head Coach in Athens next year.
Darren
October 22nd, 2010
2:49 pm
I’d like to see Georgia’s rushing game roll for 300 yards against the weak bottom ranked Kent rush defense:
Ealey 150 yards
Thomas 50
Murray 50
Green 50
Chris Petersen
October 22nd, 2010
2:50 pm
Have you seen what I can do with the Scrub players at Boise? What is Richt’s excuse?
Darren
October 22nd, 2010
2:52 pm
Kentucky’s giving up average of 176 yards on the ground.
We need to pound that ball for 300 yards+ like the Georgia Tech game last year.
Chris Petersen
October 22nd, 2010
2:52 pm
If I coached a team as talented as UGA I would never lose. And the talent in the state of Georgia….anything less than 11 wins is pathetic.
Chris Petersen
October 22nd, 2010
2:54 pm
But i don’t want any fans that accept losing when I get there, losers breed losing.
Chris Petersen
October 22nd, 2010
2:55 pm
and I wont need anyone to apologize or make excuses for my results
Darren
October 22nd, 2010
2:57 pm
Kentucky Defense yielding 360 yards a game, and giving up 30 points a game. Also giving up 176 a game on the ground. Georgia’s Offense needs to put up 400 yards + and break 50 points on these guys.
Chris Petersen
October 22nd, 2010
2:58 pm
The weather is a lot nicer in Athens than in Boise.
74 Dawg
October 22nd, 2010
3:00 pm
Hey guys, anybody know where and if the game will be available on Direct TV? Or is it gonna be sports bar time? Gata, Dawgs.
Darren
October 22nd, 2010
3:04 pm
In Kentucky’s last 3 losses, they lost time of possession. Kentucky controlled the clock against South Carolina.
Georgia’s #1 in SEC in time of possession, and if Georgia wins that battle, Georgia will win this game.
you need to run the ball, and keep the chains moving. Keeps your defense fresh, and keeps Kentucky’s offensive playmakers off the field.
Statesborodawg13
October 22nd, 2010
3:09 pm
FYI to Dish customers in my area (southeast Georgia) – the KY game will come on at 7:30 pm on channel 421 at no extra charge!! Customer service person put me on hold several times – said 421 and 463 are 2 channels that show games, and 463 is the one that is aligned with pay per view. Not sure how wide an area is included in the free channel 421, but very glad to hear this. Go Dawgs.
Hogwash
October 22nd, 2010
3:24 pm
The key for UGA will be the play of the defense, especially the LBs and the secondary. The Safeties have to stay disciplined and we need a spy on Cobb. Ogletree would be the right person for the job. If the OL continues to do a great job this week in their blocking schemes, the offense should be able to move the ball. Murray has to learn how not to take the big hit. Get what you and get down. If we win this game, we have a good chance to win the rest, but we’ll take it one game at a time. GO DAWGS!!!!
Ivey77GaDawg
October 22nd, 2010
3:25 pm
If you can’t get the game anywhere else, go to http://espn.go.com/espn3/index/_/sport/football. This is ESPN3.com which will have the game, and others, for free. You can hook up your computer to your tv and watch it that way.
timthebrave
October 22nd, 2010
3:35 pm
74 Dawg, If you are in the Atlanta area than you CSS or if you have directv like me I’ll see you in the bars. If you are out of the blackout metro atlanta area you can maybe get in on ESPN gameplan. Go Dawgs
aaron in arizona
October 22nd, 2010
3:39 pm
Does anyone know about SC Lattimore’s status? How’s his ankle/foot?
IF Lattimore is gimpy rest of year then UGA has a chance to be east champ only if SC loses 2 more sec games and we win out in sec. I know that’s a tall order for UGA but I’m optomistic.
Without Lattimore it seems SC is a very different offense per the KY game last week.
bullochdog
October 22nd, 2010
3:42 pm
Thanks Statesborodawg.
aaron in arizona
October 22nd, 2010
3:47 pm
PER espn blog, seems Lattimore is not going to play vs vandy this week. Stated sprained ankle but no further info on expected return.
ARdawg
October 22nd, 2010
3:58 pm
Obviously the Georgia Haterz and Bug fans showed up early today. Apparently getting ready to pull their double shifts at MickeyD’s
ARdawg
October 22nd, 2010
4:00 pm
Bill
I too wish I could be as confident as your buddy Herb. I believe in a Georgia win but it could easily go either way.
DiggidyDawg
October 22nd, 2010
4:27 pm
SHUT UP
October 22nd, 2010
12:46 pm
I am getting so sick and tired of “dawg fans” bI*ching about everything. If you watched the games this year, you know that all of the loses could have easily have have been wins if it wasn’t for one or two mistakes by the players. I agree that Richt could try to make players more disciplined, but mistakes still happen. Its a part of the game. Replacing Richt will put us in the same situation as Tennessee as far as rebuilding the program and trying to find recruits and it looks like Tennessee is going to down in the dumps for a while. Just have faith in your team and continue to support them. The Dawgs will bounce back!
THANKS, I NEEDED TO HEAR THAT!!! WE’VE GOT TO FIGHT THROUGH THIS ADVERSITY!!!
F.A. Grantham
October 22nd, 2010
4:40 pm
You mean we have a game Saturday I couldn’t find it on my TV schedule I was planning to take down Ryan’s buffet. Guess I better go out and earn that 750,000 you suckers paid me.
Darren
October 22nd, 2010
5:31 pm
Aaron Murray will be a nightmare for the rest of this season for opposing defenses, ESPECIALLY FLorida, as he is a Tampa native, and will have somethign special for the Floridians, don’t think Georgia’s gonna lose a game against Florida in the Aaron Murray era. But let’s not get ahead of ourselves.
He’s gonna put up 300 yards a game, 250 passing and 50+ with his feet. The RB’s only need to get another 100 yards and that’s an unstoppable offense.
Good luck trying to stop this freight train.
Billy Jack...pays his Comcast bill
October 22nd, 2010
6:16 pm
I don’t like it…but during football season it is a must….(it comes before the water bill)
Delbert D.
October 22nd, 2010
6:23 pm
Hartline is #2 in passing yards, but he is #6 in passer rating at 149.7, behind #5 Aaron Murray at 157.2.
Frank K.
October 22nd, 2010
7:05 pm
Cats 37, Dogs 27.
Bye bye, dogs.
Browndog
October 22nd, 2010
7:13 pm
It all depends on which UGA team shows up to play. I still think UK will give UGA fits. The wins over UT and Vandy were nice but not a lot of competition in those games. UK will give UGA all it can handle. UGA should win, but they should have won at Miss State and Colorado. We shall all know soon enough.
saban
October 22nd, 2010
7:15 pm
Just in Richt is having the team wear red panties and Black Uniforms.
Saying, “I want the convicts, uh players to see red”.
Kentucky wins by 30
DawginTX
October 22nd, 2010
7:23 pm
A few things…”then” is a time reference, e.g. “First we beat Tennessee. THEN we be Vanderbilt,” meaning we beat Vanderbilt AFTER we beat Tennessee. “Than” is a comparison term, e.g. “We beat Vanderbilt worse THAN we beat Tennessee.” Also, “worse” is used when comparing the relative merits of two things; “worst” is used to identify the least good of at least 3 things. And finally, “loose” is the opposite of “tight,” as in “I lost weight and now by pants are LOOSE. “Lose” is the opposite of “win.” Tech fans are LOSERS, not LOOSERS.
crap sandwich
October 22nd, 2010
8:40 pm
I like the chances for the dawgs, mainly because Grantham has developed Cummings and Williams as as improving safeties. Grantham has got to Rambo, and Rambo is hitting again. Our LB’s Dent, Dowtin and Robinson are continuing to improve and impress. Houston provides the pass rush. Watch for Ogletree to get more playing time, especially if the wheel route is working for UK. Overall, I think our defense will shut down KY for most of the game. GA 42 KY 19
mike on lake hartwell
October 22nd, 2010
9:02 pm
does anyone know if the uga game can be purchased on directv as
a single game on gameplan, or do you have to purchase the entire
gameplan package. it seems like i used to pay 29.92 for individual
games and now i cannot. can anyone verify?
mike on lake hartwell
October 22nd, 2010
9:09 pm
btw, to answer previous bloggers questions, i live in anderson sc. and today
i heard on 104.9 fm that lattimore is playing but he will not start b/c he did
not practice. bummer. but, fu+k south carolina. let’s go win the biggest
game of the year so far at kentucky and then take care of business down at
twlocparty. focus on the wildcats. they fuc+ed us last year. paybacks a
bit+h. GATA! GO DAWGS!
SatillaDawg
October 23rd, 2010
12:59 am
Go Dawgs!
Beat Cats!