Dogs only need to be a little better to top last year
Aaron Murray's play will be a key to whether the Dogs improve their turnover ratio. (Bob Andres / AJC)
Games often turn on a play or two. Seasons can turn on a game or two.
Fletcher Page of Dawg Post brought that to mind in a chat with the Chapel Bell blog when he noted: “To me, last year was a last minute (and disgraceful call) loss to LSU, and a flop on senior night against Kentucky away from a 10-win season. Despite a poor defense, turnover prone quarterback, and sketchy playcalling, that’s the truth.”
Well, sort of. The Dogs did pretty well give the Kentucky game away in the second half with turnovers. But it wasn’t just the bad flag on A.J. Green that allowed LSU to come back and win that game. Terrible kickoff coverage and lousy tackling on the 33-yard winning touchdown run had something to do with it, too.
And these close calls work both ways. Had Rennie Curran not broken up that fourth-day pass at the goal line with 22 seconds remaining, Georgia might not have come away with a win over South Carolina. What if Bacarri Rambo hadn’t made that play at the goal line in the Auburn game and the Tigers had tied it up? And if a wide open Bay-Bay Thomas hadn’t dropped that fourth-down pass in the Tech game …
So, yes, Georgia came thisclose to 10 wins last year, but the Dogs also easily could have had eight losses.
Page’s basic point is worth remembering, though. Georgia managed an eight-win season, including a bowl game, despite having nearly the worst turnover ratio in the country, terrible kick coverage, an inconsistent defense and a quarterback who threw way too many interceptions.
Looking ahead, this is the time of year when the fan base is at its most optimistic, but if we temper our expectations a bit, what is the minimum improvement that we can expect?
The turnover situation has to get better, and mathematically the odds are that will be the case. If there’s dramatic improvement in that aspect of the game, it’ll be big.
Tied in with that will be the play of Aaron Murray. True, he’s an inexperienced quarterback, but he’s surrounded by 10 returning starters, so he really only has to be adequate until he gets a few games under his belt and avoid turning the ball over. That’s why Mark Richt keeps telling him he doesn’t have to be the hero.
And Mike Bobo has to strike a balance between easing his QB into the full offensive package and not playing it too conservatively, while balancing the running and passing games.
The revamped defense is probably going to go through some growing pains, but seems poised to at least be a lot more aggressive, especially at going after the quarterback. But if the fundamentals of tackling are sound, which they too often weren’t the past couple of seasons, Georgia at least shouldn’t be any worse off.
On special teams, Georgia has a couple of the best kickers in the country, but that was the case last year. What hurt in too many games was the extremely poor planning and execution of kickoff coverage. We have different folks in charge of that this year, so there’s hope for improvement.
Basically, all the 2010 Dogs need to be better than last year’s team is moderate improvement in a few key areas.
Still, in the end there will be games that come down to a batted pass here or a missed tackle there. Or even a penalty flag.
And without that element of uncertainty, college football wouldn’t be nearly as much fun.
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114 comments Add your comment
Has Beens
June 17th, 2010
4:01 pm
Georgia should have been running the ball heavily in the 1st 7 games with an inexperienced 1st year QB like Joe Cox.
But they passes most of the time. Threw 16 interceptions.
Finally, in game 8, Richt adjusted. And ran the ball for the last 5 games at 200+ yards a game.
Too slow.
Timing was off.
Abandoned run too early in the season–stayed with Samuel too long.
Didid the same thing with Knowshon a few years ago, got Knowshon in too late in the season, responded TOO SLOW, lost too many games.
Finish well? Wrong.
How about “adapt fast”.
Has Beens
June 17th, 2010
4:02 pm
Why has the defense given up more points each year, than the last, 4 or 5 years in a row?
Richt reacted TOO SLOW.
Timing was off.
Has Beens
June 17th, 2010
4:04 pm
True, Georgia would have
won 2 more close games, by being a little better
but they could have lost 4 close games
by being a little worse.
Ed
June 17th, 2010
4:12 pm
54th!
run the ball
June 17th, 2010
4:17 pm
The offense will only be effective if/when Bobo decides to call plays to the strength of his team. RUN THE BALL!!! No more delayed handoffs, or draws. Use your two all american fullbacks from the I-formation and run the damn ball. If King or Ealey want to come out of the Floriday game when we have the ball on the 10 yard line, pull their scholorship. Stop coddling players.
Has Beens
June 17th, 2010
4:23 pm
By the way, I don’t care about winning 10 games anymore.
Georgia needs to win a National Championship with all these top 10 recruiting classes, top 10 finish isn’t the goal. With this kind of talent, even a decent coach could do that.
a little bette,r might get you to a top 20 ranking, and a 10 win season, but is that really the goal?
Is 10 wins good enough with top 10 recruiting class talent?
gdawginkalamazoo
June 17th, 2010
4:23 pm
Wow! Has Beens, this seems to be eating yo up. Why are you so worried about the dawgs this year? Why so concerned about how bad we were last year (newsflash: we know it already)? Really dude just relax and let us do the worrying since it is our team. We can handle it. So breathe dude. Unless I misunderstood and you are a hugh dawg fan. In that case still just relax there is nothing in the program that is going to get fixed on here.
Delbert D.
June 17th, 2010
4:29 pm
“But it wasn’t just the bad flag on A.J. Green that allowed LSU to come back and win that game. Terrible kickoff coverage and lousy tackling on the 33-yard winning touchdown run had something to do with it, too.”
Thanks for saying that, Bill. A lot of posters over the past 7 months have imagined it otherwise.
VandyDawg
June 17th, 2010
4:29 pm
Ranters…. those who have to ramble on and on in multiple posts spouting inane “facts” that are usually lopsided, biased, and utterly useless.
Bottom line is we had close calls on both ends, we made *some* improvements, Richt probably isn’t going anywhere anytime soon, and grandstanding changes nothing. In short, debate is good, but this soapbox stuff is just childish.
BIGJAY
June 17th, 2010
4:38 pm
IT”S A GOOD THING THAT JARVIS JONES FINALLY CAME HOME TO PLAY FOR THE BELOVED DAWGS. HE SHOULD NEVER HAVE LEFT IN THE FIRST PLACE…….HERE’S A LITTLE ADVISE TO ALL THE 4 AND 5 STAR HIGHSCHOOL TALENT IN THE STATE OF GEORGIA= WHEN YOU PLAY FOOTBALL FOR AN S.E.C TEAM YOUR GOING TO BE A LEGEND IN THAT STATE, BUT WHEN U GRADUATE YOU’RE PROBABLY GOING TO COME BACK HOME TO LIVE IN ATLANTA. SO WHAT GOOD IS IT TO BE A LEGEND IN TENN, ALABAMA OR MISS. WHY NOT STAY AT HOME, HAVE YOUR CAKE AND EAT IT TOO…….PLUS MOST OF THESE ROSTERS IN THE S.E.C ARE LITTERED WITH GEORGIA HIGHSCHOOL PLAYERS…IF ALL U GUYS STAY AT HOME YEAR IN AND YEAR OUT,,,YALL CAN KEEP THE DAWGS ON THE MAP…..JUST THINK ABOUT THE LAST 4 S.E.C NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP TEAMS, THOSE TEAMS HAD LOTS OF STAR PLAYERS FROM GEORGIA……SO JARVIS I HOPE UR MAKING SURE YOUR CARVER COLUMBUS HIGHSCHOOL BUDDIES GET THE MESSAGE, THERES NOTHING GREATER THAN BEING A LEGEND IN YOUR HOME STATE AND THERE’S NO HONOR GREATER THAN BEING A GEORGIA BULLDOG!
PDX Dawg
June 17th, 2010
4:40 pm
Wait – so – we have gator fans coming to this blog, copy and pasting the posts and subjects to their blog so they wil have something to talk about? Kind-of pathetic dont you think? too funny. have fun, I guess.
gdawginkalamazoo
June 17th, 2010
4:41 pm
“Why has AJ Green had a different QB 3 years in a row?”
Because Matt Stafford, Joe Cox and Aaron Murray are three different QBs.
Stafford went #1 in the NFL draft in case you missed that. Joe Cox was the next in line so he played a year and graduated. Now Aaron Murray wants to be the QB because somebody has to be.
Delbert D.
June 17th, 2010
4:44 pm
This is weird…I Googled “grandstanding” to get the exact definition. The dictionary page popped up and asked me if I have ADHD. Huh.
Anyway, “to play or act so as to impress onlookers” is the definition. Like prancing for a touchdown, I suppose, or the “feed me” gesture by defensive players.
VandyDawg
June 17th, 2010
4:48 pm
I was being more figurative using the term, Delbert, as to those guys *cough Has Beens cough* who babble on and on about statistics with no real ideas to put into the pot. They just like to spew facts so people find them interesting.
VandyDawg
June 17th, 2010
4:49 pm
Also, you should talk to your doctor about your obvious use of Google to find ADHD. haha
Gil
June 17th, 2010
4:50 pm
If Georgia can fix these 2 things, should be big season:
1) finish with an average scoring margin of +14
2) +10 TO margin
Just fix scoring margin, and could win it all.
Should be a great year.
Georgia is very, very close to winning it all in 2010.
Gil
June 17th, 2010
4:58 pm
Compared to Alabama, Richt’s been schooled in Scoring margin & to margin. Fix those, should be good to go.
Standing on the sidelines
June 17th, 2010
5:01 pm
Same story every year. I’ll wait and see what happens. If no better than last, I wonder who they’ll blame, now that poor old Willie ain’t around to kick around any more? Despite what happens, it’s going to be fun reading the comments as the season progresses.
Gil
June 17th, 2010
5:33 pm
If you finish in the top 5 nationally in scoring margin average, you’ll win 12 or 13 games.
It’s really the only thing that matters.
Score more, hold teams to less.
Offense needs to score about 12 more a game, defense needs to hold them to 8 less a game, that’s a +20 swing, and then if you get penalties, and low TO’s, like Florida, it won’t matter.
To win the national championship, you need to finish in the top 5 nationally in both:
1) scoring margin
2) turnover margin
Like Alabama did.
Has Beens
June 17th, 2010
5:51 pm
Bill-
Georgia finished 8-5.
If they’d been “a little better’, and won both of the 2 close games they lost, LSU & Kent, they’d been 10-3.
But, if they’d been “a little worse”, and lost all 4 of the 4 close games they won by 7 points or less, (SC, A St, Aub, G Tech) they’d been 4-9.
So using the “close game” theory, should have lost 4 more games, and won 2 more, for a total of
-2.
So should have finished 6-7 with the “close game’ theory.
Georgia needs to get a LOT BETTER.
Delbert D.
June 17th, 2010
6:19 pm
VandyDawg –
“Also, you should talk to your doctor about your obvious use of Google to find ADHD”
Yeah, I’ll mention it to my doc, but how the heck did Google know? All I typed in the search box was “grandstanding.” I mean, that’s eerie how they knew.
Let’s see, what was I just doing…I forget. I think I’ll go break up the concrete in the driveway.
Preston
June 17th, 2010
6:49 pm
If the goal is simply to be better than last year we might as well not even suit up. Give em’ hell Dawgs and win the SEC!
UGA is Just Fine...
June 17th, 2010
7:33 pm
The Defense will definitely be better imo.
If you want to really understand how much martinez HURT the defense, look no further than the bowl game against Texas A&M. A&M came in with the 5th ranked offense in the country averaging over 450yds per game. CRG & two grad assistants put together the defensive game plan which was MUCH more aggressive in nature than any we’d seen from WM and look at the results.
Granted there will be some learning curves early, but make no mistake about it there are very good athletes on our defense who were held back due to martinez’ ultra-conservative game plan. I will NEVER understand why our corners were forced to give WRs 10+ yd cushions.
The key games in this season will be SC & Arkansas. If we can come away unbeaten after Arkansas, and avoid a trap game the following week against MSU (which will be a lot better than most people probably think) we could be in for a special season.
The next 4 games against Col, Tenn, Vandy, and KY should give both the offense and defense a chance to work out any remaining kinks and both should be in top form for the final stretch against FL, Aub, & Tech.
Go Dawgs!
Patsy
June 17th, 2010
7:59 pm
Your soft/cupcake schedule this year will have a lot to do with your %.
At least you dogs learned you can’t win with a hard schedule.
76-Dawg
June 17th, 2010
8:18 pm
UGA dominated Oklahoma State in the 1st half and if the officials had not gotten involved in the 2nd half and called unnecessary roughness every time our secondary didn’t tackle like a girl the outcome of that game could have been different. UGA needs to work on a screen play, last years was the worst in college ball. and, when Murray rolls out if he doesn’t have an open receiver he needs to run the ball. Cox was scared to run last year and threw an interception or was thrown for a loss dozens of times when the other team was giving him a 5 yard gain but he waited to long to compete to the run.
WillDawg
June 17th, 2010
8:29 pm
SSI Gaytor and Has Been,
GOOB(get off our blog)!! You two butt monkeys need a hobby. Go extol the virtues of Urban Cryer and Small Johnson where someone gives a rat’s….
We will be better and you will be worse. Back to Earth for Floriduh! Brantley has no clue.
We have two stud RBs, One stud WR and 2 Stud TE. Get ready for payback!!
GATA!!
Paul Has a Small Johnson
June 17th, 2010
8:40 pm
Bill do me a favor
Write a column on Richt needs to learn to beat FL
How to beat FL
or
Man UP my friend and learn to beat FL
Black Toenail
June 17th, 2010
8:52 pm
If its and buts were candy and nuts, we would all have a Merry Christmas. Same thing every year. 3rd place SEC east baby!
AltamahaDawg
June 17th, 2010
9:20 pm
Wouldn’t “a few play here and there” sum up the seasons for about 119 college programs every years. Obvious UGA could have won more or lost more. Thats why you look at the record at thye end of the year to see how that all averaged out.
I will say this though….The Curran or bacarri example at least were plays. Football games are determined by a lot of plays. Who is to say that a missed block or blown coverage in teh 2nd quarter let SC or AUburn in the game late to begin with? Thats how it goes , every play counts. The LSU example was NOT a football play. It was a mistake made by an outside force. (yes those happen too) but its not the equavalent of “what if a player didnt make the play he did”. For that matter, what if every player took a knee as the ball snaps the entire game? You can’t compare a hypothetical, what if the outr players didnt play as well, with what if thing happened the way they were fairly supposed to. Would be more fair to say what if (some blown call that went our way) didnt.
An interesting twist to this story is: very small things could significantly improves UGA over last year. Thats a given and pretty easy to see, in fact as pointed out, the mathematical probabilities suggest some thing would almost have to bounce better. Would it not also be true that the margin of errors are so small that there are a couple ot teams (I dont need to mention them, some in here have falling so head over heels, worshiplike, can’t mention anything that doesn’t contain the qualifyer “like them”) are almost guaranteed to have a more disappointing season from last year?
KimZ'sPackage
June 17th, 2010
10:09 pm
Have you heard from CUZ? How is Baylie?
AltamahaDawg
June 17th, 2010
10:48 pm
Yes. Very well.
AltamahaDawg
June 17th, 2010
10:51 pm
“every year,” huh toenail?
AltamahaDawg
June 17th, 2010
11:06 pm
Has beens, the problem with your logic is that they can’t be BOTH a little better and a little worse at the same time.
So your statement that they need to be a LOT better to achieve a 10-3 record record is not true. You just pointed out a “little ” better would do it and IF they were a little better, you dont need to average in the little worse concequences.
Thats was the least of the multiple contradiction you had within your many post today, but I found it to be the most humorous.
BuLLdawg
June 18th, 2010
5:33 am
Just need to be a little bit better to top last year’s 8-5.
God Almighty Above Bill King.
Is that all we have as a goal for the # 11 team All-Time 1-A Wins ?
Dickie Vitale is such an ACC homer, and his squeaky little voice, diaper dandies, and Duke is going to win, baby, B.S. is more than anyone can handle.
However, his Top 40 Preseason shows The Georgia Bulldogs in the NCAA Tournament, and just outside the Top 25 to beginning the season at Number 28. Mark Fox has it going, and we will have to announce plans to build him a gym that seats more than 10,000 and pony up the money after this season, as Mark Fox will be the hottest coach in America. Every school in America will be after him after this season. They should have been last year. It was an exciting team, and they kept the team intact in the off-season and signed our best class ever. This team is a solid Top 25 men’s basketball team, coast to coast, and should reach the Sweet 16 and beyond.
BuLLdawg
June 18th, 2010
5:34 am
In College Sports, you can have a dream team in recruiting that fits the needs of the solid team in place who gave the nation fits last year, and have a Dream Season; or, you can lament who you lost, brag on those who remain, tell the recruits come join a dream recruiting team for an 8-5 team, and say you are going to be better than last year when there is not anyway in hell we can be worse – like being better than 8-5 for the # 11 College Football Program in All-Time 1-A Wins is the goal. Or, 10-win season either in 14-game seasons nowadays, us on the outside looking in.
I dream of the Day when we have a Dream Season in Athens in Football and both Men’s and Women’s Basketball, all the Major Sports. We have needs for Facilities for both including a Practice Field and Offensive Coaching Firepower in Football, and a damn gymnasium for the Dream Season Basketball Teams.
BuLLdawg
June 18th, 2010
5:36 am
In the last week, BOTH of Georgia tek’s Defensive Ends have been arrested.
1 for beating up a girl, and 1 for driving without a license driving on a suspended license and speeding 91 mph on I-75 North through Gordon County.
Add to that, that Dickie Vitale has Georgia tek men’s basketball NOT RANKED in the Top 40 teams with Georgia ranked # 28, and this has been a VERY BAD WEEK for Georgia tek.
Congratulations Georgia tek on having BOTH of your Defensive Ends arrested. I note too that the AJ-C did not allow us to DISCUSS either Georgia tek DE arrested inside of a week.
30-24
73-66
2 arrests within last week of both Georgia tek DE
including beating up a girl, driving suspended license.
Nice.
Bill King, please do not post about being just a little bit better than 8-5. Grow a pair.
Dawgfan17
June 18th, 2010
5:56 am
For the guy who said Richt was 2 years too late in firing Martinez. Yeah he should have fired him right after the season in which we finished number 2 in the country. The D was awesome the second half of that season, especially at creating turnovers. After 2006 or 2008 I can see your argument for firing WM, but 2 years ago would not have made any sense.
chazo
June 18th, 2010
6:53 am
C’mon guys give me something. Is it illegal to do a profile story on key players or to do a story on summer work ethic. what are these guys doing to be better in the Fall? Could someone dig a little deeper? I know I am a crazy summer football fan, but it just seems that there are some interesting stories that aren’t being told. Maybe that’s good. Keep it under the radar.
Big time?? Not
June 18th, 2010
7:42 am
UGA costs $1550 donation to buy season tickets which are again, SOLD OUT. Rode by Alexander Memorial yesterday and the sign said “Football tickets on sale now” Maybe they should do some type of promotion……something like: Four tickets, four hot dogs, four cokes. Losers.
AltamahaDawg
June 18th, 2010
7:58 am
Actually in 2006 the defense is what saved the season from a complete disaster. Had some issue that year but if he would have fired martinez after 2006 he would have had to release his entire staff (and perhaps stepped down himself) to have been fair. which seems a litlle radical considering that was the first year in several that they werent in the mix to win the SEC.
In 2008, I would argue that there is not a DC in the country that if you removed the pieces from his units that Martinez lost from his, would have faired much better. And obviously we know now that Richt considered the defensive staff as a “group” not just the one guy and there. I have a feeling that if all these folks actualy had to run a program, that firing a group of guys that held a team together to win more games than any team has even done with that many injuries wouldnt have happened. I would bet that the potential loss of 90% of the offensive production to deal with on the horizon weighed heaving the the decision to force even further changes too.
BUT at least after 2008 season makes sence. You could argure that the die was cast, that the energy was gone. You could try to pretend to know the future and say that you knew that 2009 would be disapointing. You could argue that he had not recruited well enough to go toe to toe with the best using the 3rd and 4th string backups if need be. And number of arguments. Or just didn’t like his style. Or him. Great.
But to say that you would have fired the defensive staff in the summer of 2008 from one of the best teams in the game, best finish of anyone, just embararassed the top scoring team in the nation, just beat UF, AU, GT. Top pass defence in the league, gave up only 122 yards rushing, sack leader….. thats just not intellectually honest.
Honesty would be that 2009 was an appropriate time to make a chance. Not coincidentally that’s what happened.
Bulldog
June 18th, 2010
8:42 am
Is ‘HAS BEENS’ the same as ‘BuLLdawg’?
Reality
June 18th, 2010
8:51 am
“Dogs only need to be a little better to top last year”….DUH??
another stupid article…
npgator
June 18th, 2010
9:10 am
Gator Bait!
Florida Game
June 18th, 2010
10:03 am
Richt can’t beat Florida. Doesn’t matter who’s coaching Florida. UGA administration remains content. When will Richt realize beating Florida is important? Every year, disappointment after Florida and yet Richt gets another pat on the back. Rather, demand Richt to coach up, rather than let “good recruiting classes” apparently go to waste. How about a “signature win over Florida”, as a condition for another “attaboy” after Florida.
How2fish
June 18th, 2010
10:45 am
Florida Game see 2007
Bo
June 18th, 2010
10:47 am
I think the schedule is weak enough to get 10+ wins but an inexperienced QB and new defensive scheme could easily cost us 2 games. The good news is FL has a new QB and a new D co-ordinator. SC has a chance on paper but they never seem to be able to pull it together.
Bulldog59
June 18th, 2010
11:40 am
Bo, agreed, the schedule is weak enough, but will the D be ready by games 2 and 3 to face SC and Arkansas? With only 2 weeks of spring practice and 20 (?) pre-season sessions, we have a lot to learn in a short time. We’ll work out a few bugs after the tune-up in game 1, but tall orders in weeks 2 and 3.
Also have the same questions about UF. Teryl Austin has plenty of experience and plenty of talent to work with, but never been a DC. Brantley looked good in mop-up duty last year, let’s see how he does over 12 games.
Mike
June 18th, 2010
1:48 pm
Schedule alone should help the Dawgs. Lost in all this talk of turnovers and big plays is the fact the Dawgs played A BRUTAL schedule last year. It was rated one of the top 5 hardest in the country.
Not including key personnel losses by Florida, UT, and Ga Tech:
We replace @ ranked Oklahoma St. with @ a much worse Colorado.
We replace LSU with a @ worse Miss St.
We replace Arizona St with LA Lafayette
First 6 games last year: @Oklahoma St., South Carolina, @Arkansas, Arizona St., LSU, @UT.
First 6 games this year: La Lafayette, @South Carolina, Arkansas, @Miss St., @Colorado, UT
MUCH easier schedule. Yes the Dawgs need to improve over last year, but schedule alone should net at least a 10 win season.
Les Grossman
June 18th, 2010
1:57 pm
I don’t know what kind of southeast power play someone is trying to pull here, but someone is going to have to get a binding resolution from the UN to keep me from going to Athens and destroying it.
Barnacle Bill Bavasi
June 18th, 2010
2:31 pm
Georgia is going to whip Florida this year, and probably the three after that, too.