Keys to a Georgia win over Auburn
A.J. Green caught the game-winning TD against Auburn last year. (Brant Sanderlin / AJC)
So why is a 5-4 Georgia team with middling to poor stats in most offensive and defensive categories a 5-point favorite over a 7-3 Auburn team that has one of the SEC’s best offenses? It certainly isn’t home-field advantage, as that goes out the window in this series.
Maybe it’s because Auburn’s gaudy offensive stats have been padded by feasting on cupcakes while the Tigers lost three in a row when they hit the meat of their SEC schedule. Maybe it’s because the Tigers’ defense is even worse than Georgia’s and the Dogs have A.J. Green matched up against a patchwork Auburn secondary.
Or perhaps it’s because everyone recognizes that Georgia needs this game more and there’s still faith that Mark Richt can dial up another late-season surge as he’s done before.
Whatever the reason, this is indeed the Dogs’ chance to make a statement that they’re not as bad as the Tennessee game made the rest of the country think.
Here are some likely keys to a Georgia win on Saturday:
Same as always: The Dogs have to get the turnovers and penalties under control. When it wasn’t shooting itself in the foot, Georgia’s offense was able to move the ball against Florida’s tough defense. If the Dogs can hold on to the ball and cut out the false starts and other stupid infractions, their chances improve dramatically. Please, no dumb late hits out of bounds!
Georgia must run the ball. That’s been the key to beating Auburn this season, as the Tigers rank 10th in the league in rushing defense. It also will open up the passing game, where Auburn isn’t much better on defense and Green could be what tips the scales in Georgia’s favor. Coming out aggressively would be a big help, too, as the Dogs don’t want to be trying to claw back from another two- or three-score deficit. If Washaun Ealey and Caleb King break a few tackles, the Dogs can take a lot of pressure off Joe Cox.
The Dogs’ defense needs to play disciplined assignment football. That’s something they’ve had a hard time doing, unfortunately. Also, the Georgia coaching staff has to find a way to keep their defensive troops from getting worn down by Auburn’s no-huddle offense, which makes it difficult to swap out players. Willie Martinez has at times had problems getting the right personnel on the field in a timely fashion, and that could be a major problem on Saturday.
Also, this would be an excellent time for the Georgia defense to finally master recognition of play-action, which they’re likely to see a lot of. It also would be a big help if Justin Houston could spend a lot of time in Tigers QB Chris Todd’s face.
I think the turnover margin is the biggest key to the game. If Georgia continues to turn it over without getting some takeaways, the Dogs will be hard-pressed to handle the Tigers.
I’ll be heading over to Athens this afternoon and will be be blogging about Mark Fox’s Georgia basketball debut tonight.
Go Dogs!
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186 comments Add your comment
tuck fech
November 13th, 2009
10:35 am
NERDS SUCK
The Other Saint Simons
November 13th, 2009
10:44 am
Yeah.
u-no
November 13th, 2009
10:44 am
Second!
u-no
November 13th, 2009
10:45 am
Crap Fourth!
E
November 13th, 2009
10:52 am
If any chance of winning falls on Mr Martinez than we are toast!!!
Soulja Boy
November 13th, 2009
11:04 am
Auburn beat W.VA., TN, and Ole Miss. Those aren’t cup cakes. Anyone who thinks that Georgia will control penalties and turnovers has been smoking dope. Georgia will lose to Auburn and Tech and maybe Kentucky.
William
November 13th, 2009
11:04 am
Just think three more games before they make a decision to promote willie martinez…three more games. Where will his next position be?
Dawgs73
November 13th, 2009
11:08 am
I am of the belief that UGA will play solid tomorrow night. It’s still inconceivable that they are not MUCH, MUCH, better. They have pretty darn good talent at the following positions.
1.) Wide receiver – AJ is arguably the best receiver in the nation that can take it to the house on any position.
2.) Running back – Despite what Richt may want us to believe, their is talent at the position. Ealey (while being a freshman), is showing to be more than capable when given the opportunity. King is still a work in progress but is caple. The short coming of this staff is CLEARLY talent evaluation…Why in the world was Samuel our starter for most of the season????
3.) Michael Moore – He is more that serviceable and has been vastly under used.
4.) Tight end – UGA has possibly 3 to 4 that could/would start at any other SEC school.
5.) Fullback – Chapas is a very serviceable blocking back that has pretty decent hands…name me a better on in the SEC.
With that being said, the O-line has not done enough to open holes and pass protect, but I wonder what a more astute coach/coordinator could do with this offense/tools??
I won’t even get into the defense…Hopefully our Dawgs will show up tomorrow night.
swimdawg68
November 13th, 2009
11:14 am
This game is about which defense plays well. If our defense plays well (that would be a change of pace), our offense will score on the Auburn defense. Auburn built their stats on cup-cake teams (Louisiana Tech, Mississippi State, Ball State and Furman), as you said. We just have better players than Auburn, I hope our coaches don’t let us down.
Supes
November 13th, 2009
11:25 am
I expect a close high scoring game, hope UGA comes out on top but wouldn’t be surprising to see Auburn win as well.
DBalcer
November 13th, 2009
11:38 am
Congrats to Drew Butler for being a semi finalist in the Ray Guy award for best punter. For more info on this got to Rougingthekicker.com and read Rex Robinson’s blog.
thetateexpress
November 13th, 2009
11:38 am
I think you failed to account for Georgia’s ability (or lack thereof) to stop Ben Tate and his 1150 yards. The wins against the so called cupcakes(Tennessee-whom clobbered the leghumpers & a ranked West Virginia team) are quality wins. The bottom line is Chris Todd’s numbers are 17 tds and 3 interceptions, he has not gotten us beat like Joe Cox has.
Ellie May
November 13th, 2009
11:41 am
The secret is for the Dawgs to get the right color combination. If Richt can dial in the optimum uniform and helmet colors, the Dawgs can prevail.
Otherwise, it’s Auburn 41, UGA 31.
coachKR
November 13th, 2009
11:41 am
We have to play disciplined football to win. Also, Richard Samuel has 4.5 ypc behind the worst Offensive Line in the SEC. That may have something to do with Cox’s misguided ducks as well.
Alphare
November 13th, 2009
11:43 am
Auburn so far:
Louisiana Tech W 37-13
Mississippi State W 49-24
West Virginia W 41-30
Ball State W 54-30 –
Tennessee W 26-22
Arkansas L 23-44
Kentucky L 14-21
LSU L 10-31
Mississippi W 33-20
Furman W 63-31
Georgia so far:
Oklahoma State L 10-24
South Carolina W 41-37
Arkansas W 52-41
Arizona State W 20-17
LSU L 13-20
Tennessee L 19-45
Vanderbilt W 34-10
Florida L 17-41
Tennessee Tech W 38-0
Terrell
November 13th, 2009
11:43 am
Take Auburn and the points.
L-Dawg
November 13th, 2009
11:43 am
GLORY GLORY TO OLE’ GEORGIA!!!!
HAPPY FRIDAY AND GAMEDAY EVE TO ALL MY FANS ON THIS BLAWG!!!
WHAT DO GEORGIA TECH “FANS” AND UGA FANS HAVE IN COMMON?? THEY ARE BOTH THOROUGHLY OBSESSED WITH THEM DAWGS AND COMING ON THIS BLAWG TO TALK ABOUT THEM!!!!
CANNOT WAIT TO BE AT THE DAWG WALK AND IN THE STANDS TOMORROW TO SHOW OUR PLAYERS WE SUPPORT THEM THROUGH THICK AND THIN!!!
WHATS MY FAVORITE THING ABOUT AUBURN?? COMING HOME FROM IT!!!!!
WHY DOES THE STATE OF ALABAMA STAY ON THE MAP?? BECAUSE TENNESSEE SUCKS (WHEN THEY ARE NOT ROBBING FOLKS OF COURSE)
GO DAWGS!!!!! (IF THAT MAKES ME A BLIND HOMER SO BE IT!!! IT’LL BE ETCHED IN MY TOMBSTONE!!)
NCDAWG
November 13th, 2009
11:45 am
If Ealey runs for 100 yards UGA wins…….Too bad his playing time is limited because of his pass blocking skills even though 75% of UGA’s passing plays are play action……..what a joke.
BG
November 13th, 2009
11:45 am
Soulja Boy, I thought you were in jail. Dawgs will kick Auburns A**
godawgs
November 13th, 2009
11:46 am
Georgia will win, because they have to
If Georgia loses this game, Richt’s judgment in his coaches and Cox will be shown to be error-prone. His squandering of talent, particularly Green and Ealey, will be brought to light. Richt will be froced to fire Martinez and possibly Bobo. Richt’s star recruits for this big weekend of 200-300 people, will NOT be impressed with a loss. This is why the Dawgs MUST win this game.
In a must situation, Georgia coaches study the stats of winning games, and figure out what they did in those games.
What you’re looking for is a stat that’s achievable, that can work right now, that’s almost fail-proof.
Forget expecting the defense to do any miracles. Martinez has just been too unreliable. And Aubrun’s offense is pretty good.
Georgia will commit penalties, I say go for 10+, Richt’s 25-2 in those games.
Ga is 38-3 under Richt when they get a 100 yard rusher.
That’s the key to the game.
Give the ball to Ealey 20 times–the guy who averages 5.1 a carry, and scored more touchdowns in High School than Knowshon Moreno and Herschel Walker.
38-3 when Richt gets a 100 yard rusher.
Alphare
November 13th, 2009
11:46 am
Auburn so far:
Louisiana Tech W 37-13
Mississippi State W 49-24
West Virginia W 41-30
Ball State W 54-30 –
Tennessee W 26-22
Arkansas L 23-44
Kentucky L 14-21
LSU L 10-31
Mississippi W 33-20
Furman W 63-31
Georgia so far:
Oklahoma State L 10-24
South Carolina W 41-37
Arkansas W 52-41
Arizona State W 20-17
LSU L 13-20
Tennessee L 19-45
Vanderbilt W 34-10
Florida L 17-41
Tennessee Tech W 38-0
BG
November 13th, 2009
11:49 am
Alphare what is the point?
Why now?
November 13th, 2009
11:52 am
Georgia has had 9 games to get the penalties down, run the ball, not turn the ball over, and play defense. But, they’ll get it right this time. Hey, one out of ten salvages a season, LOL. Mediocrity, alive and well in Athens, Ga. What is Georgia’s record since the start of 2006? And you jokers want to keep Mark Richt around, LOL. Pink out in Athens.
Alphare
November 13th, 2009
11:52 am
Sorry, I posted twice because it’s hard to tell Auburn’s records from Georgia’s. Why I posted the list? I want people to come to conclusions with facts/records, not emotion or sentimental attachment.
mick6701
November 13th, 2009
11:58 am
Pink uniforms! You got to go with the pink UNIs!!!!!
mick6701
November 13th, 2009
12:01 pm
PINK UNIFORMS – I am telling you – PINK UNIs
mick6701
November 13th, 2009
12:01 pm
that will do the trick
WDE
November 13th, 2009
12:02 pm
You know this “analysis” and these “keys” to the game are poorly researched when he doesn’t even mention the stellar turnover margin of Auburn. Saying Georgia is turnover-prone without saying Auburn is one of the best at causing and feasting off turnovers, and using that in your analysis, is lazy (or ignorant) blogging.
mick6701
November 13th, 2009
12:03 pm
and maybe CMR should try a “high school” offense like the option. I hear that is working pretty well for some teams
mutley
November 13th, 2009
12:08 pm
This is not division 1AA and UGA will get pasted and all the excuses will start. With the three stooges still around there is no way UGA wins this game or any remaining game on the schedule. The only thing to look foward to is what changes, if any will be forthcoming at the end of this terrible season.
Joe
November 13th, 2009
12:09 pm
Same old story….Dogs dance alot…Cox is his usual self…..defense is their usual self- we dont understand a no huddle offense and will never have the right players in place as we have seen before. BUT this group of dogs will dance for us at the start of the 4th quarter. Cox will tell us after the game it was his fault and they are working hard. He will also tell us to shut up unless we have played the game. IN OTHER WORDS- SAME SONG AND DANCE JUST A DIFFERENT WEEK.
godawgs
November 13th, 2009
12:11 pm
Bill-
Wrong about penalties being a cause of failure. Not under Richt, he wins 25 out of 27 when the Dawgs commit 10+ penalties. The least penalized teams in the SEC are NOT Alabama and Florida. Lack of penalities is NOT a winning formula for Ga. Play with passion, domainte, play with energy, try to get 3 penalties a quarter, try to get 5 in the 1st quarter.
takedowndawg
November 13th, 2009
12:11 pm
If Cox doen’t throw interceptions or fumble himself, we have a chance to win. Probably a 35+ scoring game since neither defense is particularly good. Auburn back Tate is very good. A big day by him could spell a loss. Their quarterback, Todd seems to make better decisions than Cox when they are compared side by side for the year. If Tate and Todd have good days, it will be a long day. Our specialty teams runners/kickers might be a factor and keep the game close. I sure hope so.
Alphare
November 13th, 2009
12:12 pm
Average scores for Auburn and Georgia:
Auburn : Scored 35.1, Allowed 26.6
Georgia: Scored 22.9, Allowed 26.1
Joe Cox
November 13th, 2009
12:14 pm
Unless you have played football- shut up- you dont have any right to criticize how we dance and when we dance. If I throw an interception and it is run back for a TD- we might dance because we need to stay up and motivated. We may dance at halftime-
Jeff
November 13th, 2009
12:16 pm
Hopefully the fans have a pinkout as was mentioned above- we need to send this team and coaches a message. This team could not MAN-UP if they had to. The are the laughing stock of the conference.
Alphare
November 13th, 2009
12:21 pm
Well, not sure you guys noticed the stats for Georgia, Georgia actually scores less than allowed so far this season, which means: Georgia’s defense is bad, but Georgia’s offense is worse.
Based on that, I predict an Auburn win.
Johnny Test
November 13th, 2009
12:25 pm
WHY NOW, I believe the DAWGS were 9 and 4 in 2006, 11 and 2 in 2007( with a #2 final ranking), 10 and 3(#10 ranking) in 2008 and 5 and 4 so far this year. That’d be 35 and 13. So what is your point besides you are a tek fan looking for somehting to do. You best be hoping the Dawgs don’t get it together befoew Nov. 28th. Boy would that ruin tek’s season.
Saint Simons
November 13th, 2009
12:28 pm
Aub 77 Uga 0!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Uga vs Kentucky for right to play in Carpets of Dalton Bowl!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
JB
November 13th, 2009
12:29 pm
Auburn…..new coach……new year……new attitude…………….Where are the Georgia players heads right now………We get down early, say 10-0……it’s lights out……This team is not physical or mentally positive. This staff can’t help. Auburn wins by 14.
Cuz
November 13th, 2009
12:32 pm
Auburn has the second worse defense in the SEC. Thank God for Mississippi State. Our defense is the seventh ranked D in the SEC DC fantasy league. Dawgs win. The spreadsheet does not lie.
NCDAWG
November 13th, 2009
12:33 pm
Alphare Dog………the offense is not worse than the defense…..The 2 games that make up these stats (Scored 22.9, Allowed 26.1) are UT and UF………not stopping UT or UF kept the offense off the field, take a look at the TOP: UGA-25:55 UT-34:05/ The Florida game was little better UGA-28:44 UF-31:16………I am not saying the offense is great by any means………but I think given a choice most people would get rid of Wille before Bobo………..
Jeff
November 13th, 2009
12:39 pm
NC Dawg- Can we find a way to keep both our offense and defense off the field???????/ Lets just have our kickers on the field. They are about the only hope on this sinking ship
Craig
November 13th, 2009
12:44 pm
Agree with Jeff- let’s challenge Auburn to a kicking duo. That way- we make sure Cox stays on the sideline so he doesnt lose the game for us like at UF and the defense doesnt play- that in itself is a moral victory. Bobo cant make the call for a toss sweep on 3rd and 18. This way- both the offense and defense will have plenty of time to dance on the sidelines. They are such good dancers- maybe they can get into the halftime show.
Big Dawg Too
November 13th, 2009
12:46 pm
Keys…..Smashem in the mouths on both sides of the line.Be tough and physical,make their quarterback afraid everytime he steps back to throw.Make them turn the ball over,run the ball up their guts!
WarEagle
November 13th, 2009
12:47 pm
One of the reasons we are making the trip to Athens this week is we have heard from other schools about the UGA Tradition of “Dancing with the Dawgs” What are the show times?
dan
November 13th, 2009
12:47 pm
Bill, to respond to your points.
1. Turnovers and penalties: Dawgs are one of the worst teams at generating turnovers. I think they’re like -13 last time I checked which is atrocious. You have to practice turnovers and snap counts in practice. Yet another example of the coaching staff underperforming.
2. Offense: I think the Dawgs need BALANCE on offense. Mix in the runs with the play action passes to keep the defense guessing. Bobo is EXTREMELY predictable. He needs to get everyone involved( FB’s, tight ends, RB’s) in the passing game, then run Washuan on 2nd and 4. This will take the pressure off of AJ which can lead to some big plays. Joe Cox also needs to be smart. I’m tired of seeing him paniac like a scared girl and throw dumb INT’s. Sometimes a sack is not a bad thing. I don’t expect Cox to have an arm like Stafford, but I do expect him to be smart with the football. And the O-line better get off their fat asses and block. I’m tired of seeing passes batted down. It’s the O-line’s job to keep that from happening.
3. Dawg defense: I wish this were the NFL, because if it were I’d cut every player on that defense except for Rennie, because they haven’t done a damn thing all year! Willie needs to blitz and stunt all day. If we’re going to get beat, I’d rather it be because we’re over-aggressive instead of waiting and reacting to what the oppossing team does. Willie sucks and needs to go, but these players suck just as bad. They need to quit acting like a bunch of poons and hit someone. I’m so sick of this sissy ass mentality on defense.
And one more thing you have forgot to mention: Special teams. I think the Dawg CAN win the special teams battle. Drew Butler is great, and Blair Walsh is much improved. And if Boykin can take one to the house, the Dawgs have a shot.
NCDAWG
November 13th, 2009
12:49 pm
Jeff well Said……….Lets see UGA kickoffs to start the game,,,,,,,,,AU fumbles in field goal range….UGA goes ahead and kicks a field goal…and the cycle repeats itself…for the first half……2nd half begins when Boykin returns the kickoff all the way and the kickoff-field goal cycle resumes……
Cory
November 13th, 2009
12:54 pm
Big Dawg Too: seems so simple but this UGA team isnt capable of making anybody afraid…..well except the fans- afraid they will embarrass us all again- they’re pretty good at that….UT, UF….sure that AU and GT will follow…..
WildBill
November 13th, 2009
12:55 pm
Its the same old story, the dogs need:
1. fewer penalties
2. smarter calls from the coaches
3. less stupid stuff on the field and sidelines, aka dancing, thown helmets, etc.
4. SOLID all around play