Some keys to a Dogs win over LSU
Joe Cox must play smart. (Brant Sanderlin / AJC)
Someone called Saturday’s Georgia-LSU game the Capitol One Bowl elimination game, which is a nice way of saying neither one of these teams is expected to win their division or qualify as a BCS wild card. While that’s no surprise concerning the Dogs, it’s kind of odd for the Tigers, considering they enter the game undefeated and ranked No. 4 in the country.
They’re also a three point underdog. How weird is that?
It basically comes down to the fact that so far this season LSU has been mediocre and inconsistent on offense and just adequate on defense against a weak schedule, while Georgia has been inconsistent on both offense and defense, but against a tough schedule. Georgia has lousy stats in part because they haven’t been able to pad them against a patsy like most SEC teams do early in the season.
A lot of pundits are picking Georgia to win a close one because the Dogs have shown a never-say-die quality in the past three games, coming from behind to win all three, plus they have the ridiculously talented A.J. Green. Pretty sound reasoning, I think.
LSU will be the highest-ranked team to visit Athens since third-ranked Florida in 1995. Here are some likely keys to Georgia pulling off what would be one of its biggest wins Between the Hedges:
It’s crunch time for the Dogs in the turnovers department. They’ve survived fumbles and interceptions the past three weeks, but if they continue on that path with the Tigers, this likely will be a loss. LSU has been opportunistic in forcing turnovers, ranking fifth in the nation in turnover margin to Georgia’s 115th.
Georgia must win the red zone battle. The Dogs’ offense has scored every time it’s gotten into the red zone this season. At the same time, Willie Martinez’s shaky defense has done its best work in the red zone and has generally been at its most effective in the fourth quarter. Continuing both trends would definitely boost Georgia’s chances.
The Dogs’ defenders must do a better job of judging play-action situations. LSU hasn’t had much success establishing the run so far this season, ranking 74th in the nation in rushing. Last week, Mississippi State crowded the line of scrimmage and kept the Tigers to just 30 yards on the ground but paid for it in giving up some long passes, something Georgia has shown a tendency to do this year. The Tigers are ranked even lower nationally in passing (90th), but Brandon LaFell is a big-time receiver; the Dogs can’t let him run free in a soft zone defense. Georgia also must contain big, mobile quarterback Jordan Jefferson and freshman wildcat QB Russell Shepard running, especially on third down.
On offense, the Dogs must spread the ball around. Georgia also has struggled on the ground, and while this would be a good time for that to change, don’t count on it. Instead, Mike Bobo and Joe Cox likely will have to find alternatives to A.J. Green, as he’ll face a big, fast, talented secondary for the first time this season. My money says Green still will make some circus catches for big plays, but Cox needs to be thinking Michael Moore, Rantavious Wooten, Tavares King and Orson Charles as well, and quit throwing into double or triple coverage, as LSU has snagged seven interceptions so far this year. Despite the arrival of new defensive coordinator John Chavis, whom the Dogs know well from his years with the Vols, the Tigers are 10th in the conference in pass defense with 199 yards allowed a game and 11th in the SEC in third-down conversion defense. So if Cox plays smart, Georgia should be able to mount some sustained drives.
If there’s an intangible in this match-up, it’s that Georgia has won its past three meetings with LSU, including an unexpected upset in the 2005 SEC Championship game. If the Dogs can get off to a fast start and get inside Jefferson’s head, that could bode well.
I’ve heard a lot of folks this week predict another high-scoring shootout in this game. If that’s the case, I like Georgia’s odds.
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65 comments Add your comment
L-Dawg
October 2nd, 2009
7:10 am
GLORY GLORY TO OLE’ GEORGIA!!!!
READY TO CHEER MY TEAM AS OPPOSED TO BOO/ENVY/STALK ANOTHER!!!
GO DAWGS!!!!
TOMORROW WE GO 3-0 IN THE SEC!!!!!!
Stick em' up!!!!
October 2nd, 2009
7:16 am
http://www.ajc.com/news/atlanta/tech-students-robbed-at-152471.html
Young Recruits….. would you like a beautiful college town with beautiful college women??? Or would you like a concrete campus with ski-mask clad muggers??
QB’s and WR’s need not consider Georgia Tech, as your positions are irrelevant in the High School style offensive gameplan, completely un-noticed by NFL scouts and programs.
THWGT
Saint Simons
October 2nd, 2009
7:18 am
(((1-7))) hahahahahahahaha!!!!!
(((12 wins against UGA since 1965))) hahahahahahahahahaha!!!!
Minnesota Dawg
October 2nd, 2009
7:19 am
If Georgia takes the opportunities when they are there and turn the ball over less, they will win. When games are this close, it comes down to capitalizing on opportunities when they are there!
Motown Hound
October 2nd, 2009
7:22 am
I came over here because Jeff Shultz is a nit wit. Nothing worse than trying to be funny and it doesn’t come off. Defense and the running game play important roles in the win tomorrow. Green gets his share of the fun. Zero turnovers.
Dawgs will still get stiffed by the AP.
Keep that chip on our shoulder.
Mikey
October 2nd, 2009
7:24 am
CMR told Tony Barnhart that he was not concerned about the turnover differential going into this game, only the turnover differential IN this game.
That’s true to an extent- cannot do anything about that number from the first 4 games. What’s done is done.
Having said that, it is a tyrend and if the trend continues, we do not win this game.
Mikey
October 2nd, 2009
7:25 am
trend…sorry….
Alpharetta Dawg
October 2nd, 2009
7:29 am
This is an easy one…win the turnover battle, fewer than 7 penalties, and finish drives in the red zone with TD’s and the Dawgs win. Lose these battles and the Dawgs lose. Dawgs have overcome losing 2 of these key measures so far but not this weeek. This will also be a key week for Cox…he looked really shaky last week with two picks and at least two more that defenders simply dropped. Chavis will dial up come confusing coverages so it will be interesting to see how Cox responds.
AltamahaDawg
October 2nd, 2009
7:30 am
90% of the comments will deal with 1/3 of the problem.
mcdawg
October 2nd, 2009
7:35 am
B%&ch slapping time-J. Owens & G.Atkins time to step up
45ACP
October 2nd, 2009
7:36 am
AltamahaDawg – good post.
I have to finish my 1st cup of coffee before I can do any math though.
Sautee Dawg
October 2nd, 2009
7:38 am
Bill
Hope your predictions are right, a UGA win in a high scoring game. Hopefully our defense can contain Jefferson, kinda scary if he gets outside the pocket and us sitting in a zone. Wasn’t any of those slant passes thrown to Michael Moore last week, maybe they’ll reinsert that play into the playcalling, he’s been money in the bank on those plays.
Maybe this is the week where our offense and defense plays a solid game, without mistakes and turnovers. Couldn’t ask a defense to play any better than it did in the 4th quarter last week against AZ St. 4 posessions and -13 yard of offense.
No doubt we have the best kicking tandem in the country, Butler leading the nation in punting, thats pretty awesome. Only thing about leading the nation in punting is your giving the ball back to the opponent. Maybe.
I think the Dancing Dawgs win this one close.
See ya at game Bill
JB
October 2nd, 2009
7:39 am
The first four games is like reading a book. the first 100 pages has been a yawner, but it’s now starting to get good. LSU, IMHO, will be the first REAL measuring stick to where this Georgia team is heading. Does it start to JELL…….or crumble……….it’s anybody’s guess. There are some positives, although hard to find reading these blogs….but also enough problems to give any Dawg grave concern…….We have watched for the first four weeks to get the “kinks” out. I don’t know if it will……………..After Saturday, we will know if this team will win 9 or 10…………………or 6 or 7.
Doogus Dawg
October 2nd, 2009
7:45 am
I predick that the teem that scorz the most points will winn the game. I am a big Georgia fan…almost 350 pounds. I am also a honour gradiate from the Universitee of Georgia. I once tried out four the teem but they alreddy had a waterboy. I will watch the game frum my trailer on Saturday. My wife/sister is gonna make some nachoes and slim jims to go with my PBR. Its grate to be a Bulldog!
JB
October 2nd, 2009
7:46 am
One more thing……………………….I read all off season where the coach’s and mainly CMR where going to ” treat this upcoming season like their first, to upgrade the focus, the preparation, etc etc”
………………………..Wow, This looks like Richt’s worst coached team since he’s been there. That is Scary.
Sautee Dawg
October 2nd, 2009
7:46 am
Enter your comments here
gaybee
October 2nd, 2009
7:48 am
I am nerd. Where is m. I need an ink refill for my printer…..when does swimming start…….who do we play this week………………………………………………when will I get laid…………………………….
love them pretty girls in Athens
m
October 2nd, 2009
7:49 am
There are only two decent teams in the sec this year….alabammer and floriduh. The rest of the 10 dwarfs of the sec aren’t worth a damne.
If ugag was any good they would win this game easily….heck miss st beat lswho up and down the field and then lost the game by 4 inches because they didn’t know how to win.
Bottom line is the sec is the weakest I have ever seen it.
m
October 2nd, 2009
7:50 am
I’m here gaybee…………………………………………………bring your whipcream and new software and come on over……………………………………………..Tell my mom I’m in the basement.
Sautee Dawg
October 2nd, 2009
8:05 am
AltamahaDawg
What do you think 1/3 of the problem is?
Cuz
October 2nd, 2009
8:17 am
45, pass that coffee pot.
It is all about the turnover battle. For God’s sake Joe do not throw into triple coverage. Somebody put some stick-em on Samuel and Kings hands. No fumbles by the kickoff return and the punt return team. If we can do this we win. If not, we run out of luck.
Channelling Lou Ghering: I consider ourselves to be the luckiest team on earth.
hipdawg
October 2nd, 2009
8:21 am
I see the Dawgs taking care of the ball and coming up w/ a pass rush and keep feeding are tight ends.Got to love our t-ends.But who is going to step up and toat the rock?
Cuz
October 2nd, 2009
8:21 am
Here is 1/3 of the problem according to 2/3’s of the fans on this blog.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x3XGjnQgsJA&feature=related
Bob Horner had a sweet compact swing
October 2nd, 2009
8:27 am
Thanks cuz….I am cracking up….haven’t heard that song in years..too funny
Brad in Jasper
October 2nd, 2009
8:29 am
The turnovers drive me crazy! It’s one thing to get beat outright, but dang-it, don’t give it away. If I could wave a magic wand and eliminate turnovers for both teams – I’d love to see who outmuscled the other, but alas that wouldn’t be football, would it? Here’s hoping for a positive turnover margin for the Dawgs, or at least even-steven with the Tigers. Sure made the difference last year. Thanks Darryl!
Joey
October 2nd, 2009
8:37 am
Guess I’m one of the 90% – nice Cuz.
GatorNation
October 2nd, 2009
8:43 am
“It basically comes down to the fact that so far this season LSU has been mediocre and inconsistent on offense and just adequate on defense against a weak schedule, while Georgia has been inconsistent on both offense and defense, but against a tough schedule. Georgia has lousy stats in part because they haven’t been able to pad them against a patsy like most SEC teams do early in the season”.
You’re kidding, RIGHT? Did I miss it? Which team have you guys played that actually is worth a darn? Before you guys say USCe, we’ll see how good they are when they actually get to the heart of their schedule. We all know how good OSU ’s played against inferior opponents.
As far as padding your stats, if you had somewhat of a good offense you guys could have laid 50 on each of the four aleady. Oh yeah, you can’t hold onto the ball.
If it weren’t for USCe’s brain fart and an inept ASU offense you guys would be 1-3. How does it feel to have to score 40 a game because WM’s great defense?
See you guys on Holloween!!! May the best team (UF) win!!!!
Dawg Days
October 2nd, 2009
8:43 am
Clever Cuz – I think Little Willie thinks he is home.
AltamahaDawg
October 2nd, 2009
8:43 am
The other 10% will actually get that.
DawginLex
October 2nd, 2009
8:49 am
I’d like to see a turnover free game which removes all the poor field position starts excuses for the defense. If that happens and the D still gives up 30 plus, then we all have our answer.
Listened to a guy on Rivals(who covers UGA) talking about Richt and WM situation. He said Richt is extremely competitive while also being extremely loyal but, he said Richt would get rid of Martinez in a heartbeat if he thought it needed to be done.
From a managing staff standpoint, the move of co-coordinators probably involved something going in WM’s personnel file justifying the action. I think we need to let Coach Richt handle it. I bet you by the end of the year it will be obvious what needs to be done.
It might be obvious after Saturday……………..
All the good feelings I had just went down the crapper.
LSU 42
UGA 38
MoDawg
October 2nd, 2009
8:50 am
With our ability to score, the turnovers really do represent the main issue for our team. Consider the number of turnovers we’ve had. If (of course, ifs don’t make it true) we take care of the ball, on just half of those drives, a couple of these games would not have been as close as they were.
If we take care of the ball, we should do fine. The last thing we want the team to do is to think so hard about not turning it over that they play tight or play safe. We need them to play loose and up to their potential, but hanging onto the ball and not throwing INTs is key to this weekend.
I think the Dawgs put together the complete game we’ve been waiting for and win this one. Look for someone other than Green to provide the ESPN highlights this week. I’m thinking it’s a good game for some “trickeration” as LSU’s defense is bound to be pressing a little to prove themselves.
I just hope for a good game and no injuries for either side. Every Tiger fan I have ever met has been gracious in victory as well as defeat. I hope our fans act accordingly.
GatorNation
October 2nd, 2009
8:56 am
“Listened to a guy on Rivals(who covers UGA) talking about Richt and WM situation. He said Richt is extremely competitive while also being extremely loyal but, he said Richt would get rid of Martinez in a heartbeat if he thought it needed to be done”.
Giving up 40 pts and 500 yards a game will take care of that!!!
GatorNation
October 2nd, 2009
9:02 am
“I just hope for a good game and no injuries for either side. Every Tiger fan I have ever met has been gracious in victory as well as defeat. I hope our fans act accordingly”.
Not some UGA fans on the AJC blogs. It’s alright to have some good old banter but don’t resort to inmature name calling like some of you guys.
DawginLex
October 2nd, 2009
9:07 am
GATORNATION,
Your advice would probably be taken a little more kindly if you wouldn’t ocme on a UGa BLOG AND TALK SMACK.
DawginLex
October 2nd, 2009
9:08 am
come on a UGA blog. typo
m
October 2nd, 2009
9:12 am
Keys to a ugag victory over lswho.
#1. lswho has to suck…..so far so good.
#2. ugag has to suck less than lswho….could be a problem.
Bottom line…lswo and ugag are part of the 10 dwarfs of the sec and this game is basically irrelevant.
45-42…glad it hurts so bad…and it is only the beginning.
Paul Johnson…the new sheriff in town.
1eyedJack
October 2nd, 2009
9:13 am
Run the ball on Offense and stop the run on Defense.
Do not turn the ball over!!!!
Play sound on special teams.
Limit the penalties!!!
Score first!!
This is the age old recipe for success and quite obvious.
I’m am not about to try and predict the score of this game because the DAWGS have been unpredictable and LSU has looked “extra” ordinary thus far so………..
Dawgs win!!!!!
SGA Dawg
October 2nd, 2009
9:16 am
Someone called Saturday’s Georgia-LSU game the Capitol One Bowl elimination game, which is a nice way of saying neither one of these teams is expected to win their division or qualify as a BCS wild card. While that’s no surprise concerning the Dogs….wait till next year again. !!
DawginLex
October 2nd, 2009
9:19 am
ACC out of conference losses to date: (and counting)
bill and Mary
richmond
Cal
TCU
Alabammer
South Caroliner
USM(which lost to UAB lastnight)
Baylor
Still to come?
m, that’s a power league you have there.
In answer to your question to me from yesterday,
What happened the last 4 times UGA played in that cesspool stadium in ATL vs GT? Including sending O’liary out of town permanently?
Richt 4-0 in Sanford West, soon to be 5-0
DawginLex
October 2nd, 2009
9:20 am
only m is stupid enough to call a team that beat the ever loving crap out of Tech-LSwho
SGA Dawg
October 2nd, 2009
9:25 am
and then we get on here and berate teams over some last year scores….and bad mouth other conferences….maybe we can talk them down to our level. our fans have lost focus just like our team.
Cuz
October 2nd, 2009
9:26 am
Alright Bulldawg Nation. It is time to take requests for the Mark Richt Fourth Quarter Dance Party. I submit this oldie but goldie that will have the young folks jumping and the old folks saying, Dam, I used to dance like that.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3AkGSJO78qU
The request lines are open.
Bill, feel free to use this as a blog topic. Tell Momma Cox to send the check to the usual address.
L-Dawg
October 2nd, 2009
9:28 am
Cuz,
Thanks for the laugh this morning.
Cuz
October 2nd, 2009
9:32 am
My job L-Dawg. Get loose, get juiced and get ready for a whale of a game. This is Fall Saturdays in the South at it’s finest.
GO DAWGS!!!! SIC EM!! WOOF, WOOF, WOOF, WOOF, WOOF!!!!!!!
BIGBOY
October 2nd, 2009
9:33 am
GatorNation who have YOU played?FLA is not that good..don’t worry that a$$Kicking is coming at the end of the month!!Limit the TO and force a few of our own and we roll over the Tigers…if not it will be another nailbiter.Bout time we got Rambo and Cummings into the mix…I look for Smith to get more run at CB as the season progresses,the future of our secondary looks bright.You know for all the griping and fire Willie talk…the future looks bright at all positions …we have so far the 3rd ranked recruiting class coming in next year to add to a great group of young talent.The pundits have proclaimed UGA to have the most difficult schedule in the nation 2 years straight ..13-4 so far is not ‘poor coaching” IMO.
L-Dawg
October 2nd, 2009
9:34 am
alright Cuz…..
you know, people get all in a rukus when we play or dance to anything too fast and upbeat. So why don’t they play this Olan Mills style video on the big screen, all interlock arms and sway back and forth.
Maybe the players can all meet at mid-field, pick a partner from the opposing team, sway with them, and exchange like a friendship braclet or something.
enjoy!! http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_-IXJLgRnvs
SGA Dawg
October 2nd, 2009
9:39 am
we fans want four quarters of solid football. and a quality win. ……
SouthBendDawg
October 2nd, 2009
9:48 am
I think the rain put a damper on some of the play calling last week. And with the line play not looking dominant early against Arizona State, Bobo called a pretty conservative game.
I am hoping to see the offense do more with different looks and sets; and as MoDawg said, possibly go to a few plays of misdirection or trick plays. We have all noted that Gray has only been used one snap at a time and the football world knows that he is going to carry the ball. I have enough faith in Bobo to trust that he realizes this gives him a big advantage for when he wants to have Logan sell the play action. If we get an early lead, I expect to see them open up the offense to new levels.
SGA Dawg
October 2nd, 2009
9:49 am
power house conference wins and all sec games to date
Sept. 26 Houston, Texas Vanderbilt 36, Rice 17
Sept. 26 Knoxville, Tenn. Tennessee 34, Ohio 23
Sept. 26 Lexington, KY Florida 41, Kentucky 7
Sept. 26 Athens, Ga. Georgia 20, Arizona State 17
Sept. 26 Tuscaloosa, Alabama Alabama 35, Arkansas 7
Sept. 26 Starkville, Miss. LSU 30, Miss. State 26
Sept. 26 Auburn, AL Auburn 54, Ball State 30
Sept. 24 Columbia, S.C. South Carolina 16, Ole Miss 10
Sept. 19 Nashville, Tenn. Miss. State 15, Vanderbilt 3
Sept. 19 Oxford, Miss. Ole Miss 52, Southeastern La. 6
Sept. 19 Lexington, KY Kentucky 31, Louisville 27
Sep 19, 2009 Gainesville, Fla. Florida 23, Tennessee 13
Sept. 19 Tuscaloosa, Alabama Alabama 53, North Texas 7
Sept. 19 Columbia, S.C. South Carolina 38, FAU 16
Sept. 19 Baton Rouge, La. LSU 31, UL-Lafayette 3
Sept. 19 Auburn, AL Auburn 41, West Virginia 30
Sept. 19 Fayetteville, Ark. Georgia 52, Arkansas 41
Sept. 12 Knoxville, Tenn. UCLA 19, Tennessee 15
Sept. 12 Athens, Ga. Georgia 41, South Carolina 37
Sept. 12 Gainesville, Fla. Florida 56, Troy 6
Sept. 12 Tuscaloosa, Alabama Alabama 40, Fla. International 14
Sept. 12 Baton Rouge, La. LSU 23, Vanderbilt 9
Sept. 12 Auburn, AL Auburn 49, Miss. State 24
Sept. 6 Memphis, Tenn. Ole Miss 45, Memphis 14
Sept. 5 Nashville, Tenn. Vanderbilt 45, Western Carolina 0
Sept. 5 Knoxville, Tenn. Tennessee 63, Western Kentucky 7
Sept. 5 Cincinnati, Ohio Kentucky 42, Miami 0
Sept. 5 Stillwater, Okla. Oklahoma State 24, Georgia 10
Sept. 5 Gainesville, FL Florida 62, Charleston Southern 3
Sept. 5 Atlanta, Ga. Alabama 34, Virginia Tech 24
Sept. 5 Starkville, Miss. Miss. State 45, Jackson State 7
Sep 05, 2009 Seattle, WA LSU 31, Washington 23
Sept. 5 Auburn, AL Auburn 37, Louisiana Tech 13
Sept. 5 Little Rock, Ark. Arkansas 48, Missouri St. 10
Sept. 3 Raleigh, N.C. South Carolina 7, NC State 3
who has any one played?
lets keep talking smack about every one else, and that way we don’t have to focus on what we have or have to do.
Otto
October 2nd, 2009
9:54 am
GatorNation, You are somehow assuming CMR would let UGA hang 50 on someone where he does not have to.
CMR has done it 4 times at UGA the last was 2 TD win over LSU last year prior to that it was ‘04 and that one was rather hard not to score that many. The other 2 were back in ‘02.
Yes I agree with many that CMR should not call the Dogs off, maybe change to backups but continue to run the same game plan.
On topic, UGA needs to clean up turnovers and penalties. I usually want a ball control game but a high scoring game getting AJ, Wooten, and Charles run all over the field may work. Yes it would be a high score game on both sides but a win is a win and slow mistake free football is LSU’s game.
If UGA does get behind by 2 TDs, Chavis will run soft coverage much the same as CWM. In that case take the underneath and let the UGA WRs make plays. Don’t stick with the run like Bobo did in ‘07 against UT and then afterwards let Bobo take the blame for sticking with the run to long.