NFL playoffs about QBs, coaches — and Falcons have shot
Matt Ryan and Mike Smith will be looking to improve on their postseason resume in three weeks. (Curtis Compton/AJC)
With few exceptions, Super Bowls are won by teams with a great quarterback and a great head coach. Or in the case of the Baltimore Ravens in 2001, a defense so great that it can overcome Trent Dilfer.
Results by Matt Ryan and the Mike Smith-coached Falcons this season suggest Atlanta is in a pretty good spot to go to the Super Bowl for only the second time in franchise history, and possibly win it. Ryan is having the best season of his career. Smith has kept his team focused and ascending over the past four weeks (exception: the Carolina game) and upgraded his staff with coordinators Mike Nolan (defense) and Dirk Koetter (offense).
What Ryan and Smith both lack is a playoff resume. Here are my rankings of the potential 15 quarterback-coach combinations in the playoff field (10 teams that have clinched, five that are in the hunt):
1. Tom Brady-Bill Belichick (New England): It has been eight seasons since the Patriots have won a Super Bowl. But with a game on the line, Brady and Belichick (three Super Bowls won, two lost) still rank above any other duo. The Patriots are the league’s highest-scoring team (35.3) and probably still the most feared team, despite a very average defense.
2. Aaron Rodgers-Mike McCarthy (Green Bay): The only quarterback with more touchdown passes than Rodgers (35) is Drew Brees (39). The difference: Rodgers has eight interceptions, Brees 18. The Packers were probably the best team in the league last season, but killed themselves with four turnovers in the playoffs against New York.
Nobody will be too upset if these two don't make the playoffs. (AP)
3. (Not in) Eli Manning-Tom Coughlin (N.Y. Giants): The Giants likely will miss the playoffs, which should comfort everybody else. For as many regular season problems as they’ve had, Manning and Coughlin have won eight of their last nine postseason games, including two Super Bowls.
4. Peyton Manning-John Fox (Denver): Fox made it to a Super Bowl in his second season with Carolina. Manning lost his first three playoff games but won seven of his next 10, including a Super Bowl. Personally, I think Denver is a little overrated because of a soft schedule (helped by the AFC West), but Manning and Fox aren’t going to be an easy out.
5. Joe Flacco-John Harbaugh (Baltimore): The defense isn’t as strong as past Baltimore teams. But the Ravens have never been one-and-done in four postseasons with Flacco and Harbaugh. Flacco has seven touchdown passes and two interceptions in his last four playoff games.
6. Matt Ryan-Mike Smith (Falcons): They’re 0-3 in the playoffs and had better performances as quarterback/head coach rookies in 2008 than the last two years. Lost to two Super Bowl winners (Green Bay and New York) and one finalist (Arizona) is some consolation. But the last two years the team didn’t look prepared for the moment.
7. Matt Schaub-Gary Kubiak (Houston): Schaub has never taken a playoff snap. Kubiak coached in his first postseason last year, impressively winning a game with a rookie backup quarterback (T.J. Yates). The Texans are similar to the Falcons: a playoff unknown.
Did Jim Harbaugh choose right with Colin Kaepernick? (Getty Images)
8. Colin Kaepernick-Jim Harbaugh (San Francisco): Harbaugh is a great coach, making it to the NFC title game in his first postseason (losing to the Giants in overtime). But switching to a rookie, Kaepernick, in midseason from Alex Smith was a big risk, even if Kaepernick has a bigger upside.
9. (Not in) Tony Romo-Jason Garrett (Dallas): Tony Romo is talented and tough, but he still makes too many mistakes in big moments and he’s only 1-4 in the playoffs. Jason Garrett might just be keeping the job warm for Sean Payton.
10. (Not in) Robert Griffin III-Mike Shanahan (Washington): Shanahan won two Super Bowls in Denver, he’s one of the best offensive/quarterback coaches in history and he’s done a nice job with RGIII. But Griffin probably is too banged up to expect a long playoff run (if the Redskins get in).
11. Andy Dalton-Marvin Lewis (Cincinnati): Marvin Lewis has been in Cincinnati for a long time (10 years) for a guy who’s never won a playoff game.
12. Andrew Luck-Chuck Pagano (Indianapolis): Luck (taking over for Manning) and Pagano (coming back from leukemia) makes for the best story of the playoffs. The Colts could be a dangerous team in the playoffs.
13. Russell Wilson-Pete Carroll (Seattle): Two guys who have far exceeded expectations. But sorry. I’m not buying in. The Seahawks (3-5 on road) will be a one-and-done wild card.
14. (Not in) Jay Cutler-Lovie Smith (Chicago): Cutler has the talent, just not always the head or leadership to go with it.
15. (Not in) Christian Ponder-Leslie Frazier (Minnesota): If we were ranking running games (Adrian Peterson), the Vikings would be a lot higher.
By Jeff Schultz
Tell us what you think about the site
Customer Care »
Vacation stops, manage subscriptions and more
AJC Services
Sections
Other Editions
Visitor Agreement | Privacy Statement
© 2013 The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
205 comments Add your comment
JSS
December 30th, 2012
10:36 am
You compare him to winners because you clowns make the excuse that “experience” is the reason why he’s need to have time.. It was not an excuse that Peyton should have been accorded, and neither should Ryan… The 2000 Patriots were 5-11! The excuses just flow from you…
I don’t hate Ryan… That is waste of time and good hate… I dislike that he was paid $72 million bucks and set the NFL on the path of destroying a perfectly good collective bargaining agreement… I dislike that a team neglected its core and depth in order to try to prop up his inabilities and inadequacies in playmaking abilities. Now, you have the nerve to use “cherry-pick.” Ignoring the history of the moment (exactly what you and the slimy one does) is why the word “ignorance” exists.
Again, you deflect on Newton. He’s a “talent.” That only mean that he has an opportunity. If Carolina chooses to squander it, that is their issue… I’ll still be watching the NFL, CFL, and UFL… I’ve seen thousands of American football players come and go… The world is not going to end when Ryan takes his last snap, it didn’t when Baugh, Unitas, Montana, or Favre left as well… There is always something to replace it down the road… That is how life works..
Matty Bicep
December 30th, 2012
11:23 am
Ok, fair enough, we are all entitled to our opinions. But there is an underlying issue you refuse to acknowledge. But you are right about surrounding him with tools, but that is what you do, you try and get players that compliment your existing players, it has not paid dividends in the playoffs, but you got to get to the playoffs first, right?
Cam? who knows, the entire comparison thing is a waste of time, some players come in at a level and develop skills as they go (Matt Ryan), others come in and don’t develop, that is the entire trick to drafting players. If Cam develops, if he learns how to operate a 2 minute offense, he will be very successful.
To say “a good waste of time and good hate” sounds pretty hateful, and god knows, you sure spend a lot of time on here talking about a guy you care so little about that you care so little about that you don’t want to waste any time on him.
FALCONFAN
December 30th, 2012
6:07 pm
Yes football is about coaching. After watching Falcons loss too Bucs, I believe Mike Smith is the dumbest , stupids coach in NFL. If you going too play starters why not play too win. I do not know why the offense played the way they did. But there were bad play calling by DK or maybe he was told too call game as he did. Bucs get a win and the falcons come up with two players hurt Duante and Abe. With out these two playing in playoff, falcons sure will be one and done.
Smith is the Bobby cox of football. I wish Blanks would fire him!!
JSS
December 31st, 2012
12:19 am
I answer the questions poised to me in most cases… Most of you want people to love his skill set, sorry, as it was sold (supposedly his reads, quick release, and his ability to lead in the clutch – not regular season alone, but on the big NFL stage the playoffs)… Told people that this “team” and Ryan were a poor match if the post-season was the goal… Nothing since has taken that off the table… If they’d realized that when they still had flexibility, they could have built and drafted to augment Turner (instead of cast-offs Clabo, McClure, and Dahl)… Had money and the temperament to keep people like Boley… That is depth! Now all of your draft picks are in Cleveland, and you’re hoping that you can out explosive play teams that have the ability to still impose their will on them… SMDH… Don’t you’ll confuse them…
Matty Bicep
January 1st, 2013
11:02 am
Well, JSS, your criticism notwithstanding on how to build a franchise, apparently the NFL disagrees with you, for we have 3 assistants and a front office guy being interviewed by other organizations for HC and GM positions. Again, your analysis is a farce, you know nothing about football, your buying to the hype of the eagles did not prove that, and now they are trying to pluck or assistants to show them how you do it. Now that is funny.