NFL playoffs about QBs, coaches — and Falcons have shot
Matt Ryan and Mike Smith will be looking to improve on their postseason resume in three weeks. (Curtis Compton/AJC)
With few exceptions, Super Bowls are won by teams with a great quarterback and a great head coach. Or in the case of the Baltimore Ravens in 2001, a defense so great that it can overcome Trent Dilfer.
Results by Matt Ryan and the Mike Smith-coached Falcons this season suggest Atlanta is in a pretty good spot to go to the Super Bowl for only the second time in franchise history, and possibly win it. Ryan is having the best season of his career. Smith has kept his team focused and ascending over the past four weeks (exception: the Carolina game) and upgraded his staff with coordinators Mike Nolan (defense) and Dirk Koetter (offense).
What Ryan and Smith both lack is a playoff resume. Here are my rankings of the potential 15 quarterback-coach combinations in the playoff field (10 teams that have clinched, five that are in the hunt):
1. Tom Brady-Bill Belichick (New England): It has been eight seasons since the Patriots have won a Super Bowl. But with a game on the line, Brady and Belichick (three Super Bowls won, two lost) still rank above any other duo. The Patriots are the league’s highest-scoring team (35.3) and probably still the most feared team, despite a very average defense.
2. Aaron Rodgers-Mike McCarthy (Green Bay): The only quarterback with more touchdown passes than Rodgers (35) is Drew Brees (39). The difference: Rodgers has eight interceptions, Brees 18. The Packers were probably the best team in the league last season, but killed themselves with four turnovers in the playoffs against New York.
Nobody will be too upset if these two don't make the playoffs. (AP)
3. (Not in) Eli Manning-Tom Coughlin (N.Y. Giants): The Giants likely will miss the playoffs, which should comfort everybody else. For as many regular season problems as they’ve had, Manning and Coughlin have won eight of their last nine postseason games, including two Super Bowls.
4. Peyton Manning-John Fox (Denver): Fox made it to a Super Bowl in his second season with Carolina. Manning lost his first three playoff games but won seven of his next 10, including a Super Bowl. Personally, I think Denver is a little overrated because of a soft schedule (helped by the AFC West), but Manning and Fox aren’t going to be an easy out.
5. Joe Flacco-John Harbaugh (Baltimore): The defense isn’t as strong as past Baltimore teams. But the Ravens have never been one-and-done in four postseasons with Flacco and Harbaugh. Flacco has seven touchdown passes and two interceptions in his last four playoff games.
6. Matt Ryan-Mike Smith (Falcons): They’re 0-3 in the playoffs and had better performances as quarterback/head coach rookies in 2008 than the last two years. Lost to two Super Bowl winners (Green Bay and New York) and one finalist (Arizona) is some consolation. But the last two years the team didn’t look prepared for the moment.
7. Matt Schaub-Gary Kubiak (Houston): Schaub has never taken a playoff snap. Kubiak coached in his first postseason last year, impressively winning a game with a rookie backup quarterback (T.J. Yates). The Texans are similar to the Falcons: a playoff unknown.
Did Jim Harbaugh choose right with Colin Kaepernick? (Getty Images)
8. Colin Kaepernick-Jim Harbaugh (San Francisco): Harbaugh is a great coach, making it to the NFC title game in his first postseason (losing to the Giants in overtime). But switching to a rookie, Kaepernick, in midseason from Alex Smith was a big risk, even if Kaepernick has a bigger upside.
9. (Not in) Tony Romo-Jason Garrett (Dallas): Tony Romo is talented and tough, but he still makes too many mistakes in big moments and he’s only 1-4 in the playoffs. Jason Garrett might just be keeping the job warm for Sean Payton.
10. (Not in) Robert Griffin III-Mike Shanahan (Washington): Shanahan won two Super Bowls in Denver, he’s one of the best offensive/quarterback coaches in history and he’s done a nice job with RGIII. But Griffin probably is too banged up to expect a long playoff run (if the Redskins get in).
11. Andy Dalton-Marvin Lewis (Cincinnati): Marvin Lewis has been in Cincinnati for a long time (10 years) for a guy who’s never won a playoff game.
12. Andrew Luck-Chuck Pagano (Indianapolis): Luck (taking over for Manning) and Pagano (coming back from leukemia) makes for the best story of the playoffs. The Colts could be a dangerous team in the playoffs.
13. Russell Wilson-Pete Carroll (Seattle): Two guys who have far exceeded expectations. But sorry. I’m not buying in. The Seahawks (3-5 on road) will be a one-and-done wild card.
14. (Not in) Jay Cutler-Lovie Smith (Chicago): Cutler has the talent, just not always the head or leadership to go with it.
15. (Not in) Christian Ponder-Leslie Frazier (Minnesota): If we were ranking running games (Adrian Peterson), the Vikings would be a lot higher.
By Jeff Schultz
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205 comments Add your comment
okeetee
December 26th, 2012
9:55 am
“The only team in the NFC that should scare the Falcons is a physical Seattle team that punches teams in the mouth and always seems to find a way to win the tough games.”
…correct me if I’m wrong but haven’t the Falcons beaten the SeaHawks the past two years IN Seattle, which basically the same team they have now, with the exception of now starting a ROOKIE quarterback…..and they will have to win or beat us in OUR house this go a round? The Sea Hawks have been playing well…..but I’m still more concerned about the Packers and Aaron Rogers!
SawThat1nce
December 26th, 2012
9:56 am
Where have the 5 Seahawks losses happened at?
JSS
December 26th, 2012
10:02 am
No Larry, I have no favorite, but as you do what you always do and try to inject an agenda on to my opinion, the team that doesn’t turn the ball over and converts scoring opportunities into TDs will win…
6 years later, and accolades for QBs like Rodgers, Luck, Flacco just goes over your head.
Oh yeah, if you hear a load crack, turn on the GPS locator…
Chop Buster
December 26th, 2012
10:03 am
JSS – “Tavaris Jackson (2011 Seahawks QB) will be nowhere in the vicinity, that automatically makes any game more competitive…” But the defense is still the same. Don’t act like the Seahawks are some undefeatable team. They have a rookie playing QB and if the Falcons defense can confuse both Mannings and Brees, I’m pretty sure they can confuse a rookie QB. Also, you seem to have a counter to anything any Falcons fans point in their favor. Whose team are you a fan of?
JSS
December 26th, 2012
10:06 am
And Larry, nothings changed, you still should not try to contact me on these blogs… “No” means “no,” try it some times…
JSS
December 26th, 2012
10:17 am
Those corners have been augmented, they saw their weaknesses and addressed them, that D is not the same, they went out and got 3 more pass rushers and shouted up that front 7 (4 of those 2012 draft picks are playing an active role)… No team is “undefeatable” (not a word). Nevertheless, like I said that running game and defense travels. If you’re counting on a defense “confusing” a rookie QB, good luck with that, a power running game can be a equalizer on the road…
Joshua
December 26th, 2012
10:20 am
I see a lot of people complaining about Michael Turner continuing to get the ball. I don’t see one complaint about the numerous play action passes that have gone for big gains or TDs. You can’t have it both ways. You want to take the ball out of Michael Turner’s hands, then you can forget about play action. And if you just straight drop back and pass with no running game and no play action, you can forget about moving the ball at all. So just be quiet about it – if you don’t understand the dynamics of football, don’t post criticism that makes it obvious.
Fetus Breath
December 26th, 2012
10:25 am
HEPPY BURFDAY JEEBUS!!
Joshua
December 26th, 2012
10:26 am
The Falcons are the best home team in football and the Seahawks are BY FAR the worst road team in the playoffs this season. I was impressed by them too but let’s not give them more credit than is due. Yes – their defense has been stout. But don’t you think some of that stoutness is a function of opposing offenses not being able to communicate due to deafening crowd noise at C Link? The home road splits certainly seem to indicate crowd noise is a greater factor than the Seahawks “legit” defense.
There is NO WAY any Falcon fan should be worrying about the Seahawks bringing their rookie QB into the hostile GA dome to play the best home team in football in a thunderous environment with the worst road record of all teams in the playoffs.
Personally, I’m praying for the Seahawks to make it to the Dome, but honestly, I expect they will be out of the playoffs in the first round.
Patman
December 26th, 2012
10:33 am
I love my dirty birds but history tells us not to get our hopes up for Atlanta teams at playoff time. I have seen Atlanta team after Atlanta team, Falcons, Hawks and Braves, get our hopes up only to let everybody down with a lack of heart or real commitment to winning when it counts. I’m not trying to throw cold water on the Falcons, just being real.
Chop Buster
December 26th, 2012
10:35 am
JSS – “No team is “undefeatable” (not a word).” It is a word smart guy. Use a dictionary sometime. We can go back and forth with this all day (seems that’s what you like), so I’ll let you keep your opinion and I’ll keep mine of the Seahags.
DP
December 26th, 2012
10:35 am
Joshua, I’ll bet you thought there was NO WAY the Packers could come into the Georgia Dome and hang 48 on the Falcons and NO WAY the Falcons could lose 24-2 to the Giants.
Unless somebody called the Giants winning the Super Bowl last year or is willing to bet their house on this year’s playoff games, how about giving the assertions about who is going to win in the NFL playoffs a rest. Shouting the loudest doesn’t make you the most knowledgeable; if it did, Skip Bayless and Stephen A. Smith would be NFL GMs. The playoffs are a crapshoot. Virtually every team in can win it all if they get on a roll and any of them can lay an egg in their first game.
JSS
December 26th, 2012
10:38 am
Joshua
December 26th, 2012
10:26 am
“The Falcons are the best home team in football and the Seahawks are BY FAR the worst road team in the playoffs this season.”
Somewhere the Cincinnati Bengals and the Chicago Bears (if the Vikings stumble) are grinning from ear-to-ear…
Hahahahahaha
December 26th, 2012
10:46 am
The Falcons chance at actually WINNING a playoff game is zilch! 0! They will lose the first playoff game they play. They are NOT a CHAMPIONSHIP team and thier fans are NOT CHAMPIONSHIP WORTHY fans. This is going to be good! I can’t wait to watch that game and watch Rodriguez cry on the side of the field like he ALWAYS does when they lose! hahahahahahahaha!
Hahahahahaha
December 26th, 2012
10:46 am
OOPS Gonozalez….shoot all of those names sound the same to me. no pun intended.
Msg. to 'Chopbuster'
December 26th, 2012
10:54 am
Undefeatable IS a word. There goes that Georgia Education System again!
JSS
December 26th, 2012
10:59 am
When a word only appears in “abridged” dictionaries, there is a reason…
“Seahags?” It will be a witches brew if they are on! http://www.hark.com/clips/mjysnfhwgw-popeyes-laugh
Go Falcons..!!
December 26th, 2012
11:02 am
@hahahah
Say it to his face CHkn $hit. no pun intended.
Joey
December 26th, 2012
11:11 am
If Smith allows his OC and QB to run the offense, the Falcons will at least get to the conference title game.
If Smith insists on running his fat-ass for 2 yard losses, it will be yet another 1-and-done.
Chop Buster
December 26th, 2012
11:17 am
Msg. to ‘Chopbuster’ what are YOU talking about? I know undefeatable is a word. Tell that to professor JSS.
JSS
December 26th, 2012
11:33 am
Oxford is clear on “undefeatable.” Merriam-Webster on the other hand only accounts for it in “unabridged” dictionaries because it was considered an archaic term and was better used in different structure. Just as I would not use “niggardly” as a word instead of “stingy” or “miserly.” It is no longer an efficient use of wordsmith… It is on the ash heap on English words,
LOL at the Aints
December 26th, 2012
11:35 am
Got me a Rodriguez jersey for Christmas,, man I was Pi##ed LOL
JSS
December 26th, 2012
11:40 am
It is archaic, Oxford has stricken it from the language… I bet you used a certain “n” word instead of miserly or stingy… It is a poor use of wordsmith… “Any team can be defeated.”
DGAD
December 26th, 2012
11:41 am
Denver will go further than Falcons in the playoffs.
I watched the game Saturday night and for the first half the announcers were slobbering all over the Falcons. Then, the Falcons let the Lions back in the game in the third and and first half of the fourth quarters. Also, CJ was lighting up the Falcons for the receiving record. Any let up like that in the playoffs will get you sent home. Also, the next day, Baltimore creams the Giants. Wasn’t beating the Giants the Falcon’s big win? Seems like everyone is doing it. The Falcons are good, but they ain’t nothing special.
GTBOB
December 26th, 2012
11:44 am
Falcons will lose the first playoff game! If they had a running game like Tech and a genius for a coach..they might make it to the Super Bowl! Watch Tech destroy USC and put a whopping on UGA next year!
JSS
December 26th, 2012
11:50 am
The team with a QB who throws 3 INTs against Oakland and 5 INTs against Arizona (both at home) and is not a rookie is certainly a magical elixir for confidence… They’re undefeatable! Maybe or maybe not, but big physical CBs who can man cover and are no longer rookies in their 4th game means something… That is the rationale used by Falcons fans to explain Julio Jones as a positive…
E Pluribus Falcon
December 26th, 2012
12:06 pm
The Falcons might have some difficulties with a “running” quarterback (Green Bay, San Fran., or Seattle not MV7-Philly) but I rate their probability of a SB win at: .85 (Divisional Round) X .75 (Conference Round) X .50 (SuperBowl) = 32%. About 1 in 3.
Flo-Ri-Duh
December 26th, 2012
12:07 pm
The best thing the Falcons have going for them is that they got rid of Van Gorder and his defense and bought in Asante Samuel – a CB that can actually cover a Pro Bowl WR. The defense is much better in pass coverage this year. Still concerned about the OL. The playoffs re won and lost in the trenches and the Falcon’s OL was awful in the playoff game last year.
Joshua
December 26th, 2012
12:16 pm
Joshua, I’ll bet you thought there was NO WAY the Packers could come into the Georgia Dome and hang 48 on the Falcons and NO WAY the Falcons could lose 24-2 to the Giants.
Unless somebody called the Giants winning the Super Bowl last year or is willing to bet their house on this year’s playoff games, how about giving the assertions about who is going to win in the NFL playoffs a rest. Shouting the loudest doesn’t make you the most knowledgeable; if it did, Skip Bayless and Stephen A. Smith would be NFL GMs. The playoffs are a crapshoot. Virtually every team in can win it all if they get on a roll and any of them can lay an egg in their first game.
=========
A crap shoot? I think not. Don’t let the recent anomalous trend of “hot” teams making deep runs fool you to the fact that since the inception of the SB, the top seeded teams have been dominant. We are talking about a span of 6 or so years where a few hot teams have went on runs vs several decades of dominance from top seeded teams.
Aside from that, I had no expectations of a Falcons run last year. Watching them play all season made it obvious they did not have the fortitude for a run. And I was not surprised by the Packers in 2010 either – it was the second time they had played that year and the game was tightly contested until the pick right before the half which absolutely destroyed the Falcons momentum.
Also, I’m not predicting the Falcons will win for certain, which appears to be how you interpreted my post. I never said that. What I’m saying is that the Seahawks should not be worrisome. I mean none of us can control whether the Falcons will come out and lay down and die like they did last year, but that has no bearing on how intimidating of a match-up the Seahawks would be. That is all.
Joshua
December 26th, 2012
12:19 pm
The Falcons might have some difficulties with a “running” quarterback (Green Bay, San Fran., or Seattle not MV7-Philly) but I rate their probability of a SB win at: .85 (Divisional Round) X .75 (Conference Round) X .50 (SuperBowl) = 32%. About 1 in 3.
======
They shut down RGIII with authority.
Joshua
December 26th, 2012
12:23 pm
JSS
“The Falcons are the best home team in football and the Seahawks are BY FAR the worst road team in the playoffs this season.”
Somewhere the Cincinnati Bengals and the Chicago Bears (if the Vikings stumble) are grinning from ear-to-ear…
======
The Bears are 4-3 on the road, the Bengals are 6-2 on the road. I’m not sure I follow your logic.
Peter
December 26th, 2012
12:28 pm
I like the Falcon’s chances for a few reasons…… First if Peyton manning could lose hid first 3 playoff games as Ryan did, then we know all can turn around….. plus Ryan got stronger and more physical this year, which bodes well for him.
Second and more important is the turn over in the coordinators….. The Defense is better this year,
and we are making better adjustments at 1/2 time….. Last year we got beat in the second half, ,and this year that is not the case.
I see the Falcon’s in the NFC Championship game, and at home I like our odds.
E Pluribus Falcon
December 26th, 2012
12:33 pm
24-17 is solid, Joshua, but maybe a little shy of “…with authority.” I like the Falcons over everybody in the NFL – everybody – if they play their game. But the playoffs are full of really good teams and they’ll have to win THREE in a row against those teams. I hope they play their game, three in-a-row.
JSS
December 26th, 2012
12:50 pm
Cincinnati and Chicago are teams that can be attacked, and turnover the ball… 11 TOs and 16 TOs since compared to 5 for Seattle since the mid point of their respective seasons … Home or away, that is a recipe for playoff disaster… Wanna guess how many TOs Atlanta have in that period? Despite turning over other teams, sooner or later the chickens come home to roost…
Paul in NH
December 26th, 2012
1:01 pm
I am not sure I understand the unbridled optimism from Falcons fans. It is a little different in Boston. The Pats have a better QB and a better coach than Atlanta and the fans expect NE to not win the Super Bowl.
Jonathan
December 26th, 2012
1:09 pm
What’s the latest on whether or how much Matt Ryan will play this Sunday?
JSS
December 26th, 2012
1:17 pm
Paul, Pats fans love them but generally always see their shortcomings…
Paul in NH
December 26th, 2012
1:24 pm
JSS
That comes from most Pats fans also being Sox fans. They expect heartbreak.
Joshua
December 26th, 2012
1:26 pm
E Pluribus:
24-17 is solid, Joshua, but maybe a little shy of “…with authority.” I like the Falcons over everybody in the NFL – everybody – if they play their game. But the playoffs are full of really good teams and they’ll have to win THREE in a row against those teams. I hope they play their game, three in-a-row.
======
I was specifically speaking to holding RGIII in check – not to the game as a whole. If you think about that game, the Redskins scored one of their TDs on an interception return, and the other by a long pass from Kirk Cousins via badly blown coverage. RGIII was completely ineffective (10/15 for 91 yards passing and 6.1 ypa, 7 yards on 1 rush attempt) thus the with authority comment =]
Joshua
December 26th, 2012
1:27 pm
I am not sure I understand the unbridled optimism from Falcons fans. It is a little different in Boston. The Pats have a better QB and a better coach than Atlanta and the fans expect NE to not win the Super Bowl.
=====
It’s simple: the Falcons are better than New England.
Joshua
December 26th, 2012
1:32 pm
JSS:
It goes without saying that turnovers are the biggest deciding factor in most games. No team can afford to lose the turnover battle but let’s take solace in the fact that the Falcons have one of the best turnover differentials in football, and that turnovers are less likely when playing in front of a friendly crowd (due to easier communications, etc).
Rasta Roddy
December 26th, 2012
1:33 pm
No worries, mon.
Dem falcons goan be ready dis year fah certain.
Wit Michael Turner rested and da defense peaking at jist da right time, day goan be unstoppable.
Look fah big plays from rodgers, snelling and douglas. And doan fuhget about Chris Hope and Antoine Smith on special teams, mon.
Da best is yet ta come!
Decatur Falcons
December 26th, 2012
1:33 pm
People, the Atlanta Falcons have a great shot at making the Super Bowl, we the fans of the Atlanta Falcons have to believe. The NFL is so cruel, and with one game left in the season anything can happen. Dallas Cowboys can make the Playoffs or the NY Giants. It is true you need a good QB and coach to win these playoffs games. It is a tough job, but it can be done. GO FALCONS!!!!!
Rasta Roddy
December 26th, 2012
2:11 pm
An’ anudda ting. Doancha worry bout Mr. Michael Turner.
Da coaches knows wat dey do.
He be restin’.
Mark it.
Dey say, iss ok Michael.
Ya hit dem holes and chppa feet an if dem holes doan open jus take a lil nap on da field.
No need to over exert yaself before da big games get here.
He has less than half the carries he had at this time in 2010 when Mularkey rode like a cappucin monkey on a shetland pony in a freak circus.
Trust me when I say Michael goan be crackin skulls in the playoffs.
GT GRAD
December 26th, 2012
2:23 pm
Might I suggest a list of the all-time best Superbowl Championship teams based on the best combination of OL #1, DL #2, QB #3, Head Coach #4, OC #5 and last but not least DC #6. Rather ridiculous to suggest the QB and Head Coach are the most important/critical factors………put the best QB and a stellar Head Coach on a team with a group of less-than-average OL and DL players and the team will probably miss the playoffs completely! A team usually needs the complete package #1 thru #6 listed above to actually win a Superbowl.
My point is obvious……..the OL and DL on a football team typically make or break a team (especially during the playoffs)!!
Matt Ryan and Mike Smith have had success with average (at best) OL and DL players……the OL and DL has played much better this season than in the past 4-5 years though. I just hope these guys are good enough to take the team all the way to a Superbowl Victory!!!!!!!!!!
UGA83
December 26th, 2012
2:45 pm
My guess is we get the Redskins-Seahawks winner here for our first game, with GB and SF in the other game. That’s about as good as it can get for the Falcons. I think we match up pretty well with any of the NFC playoff teams, and I expect the Birds will still be in the hunt in the 2nd half of the NFC championshipo game!
E Pluribus Falcon
December 26th, 2012
3:16 pm
Joshua @ 1:26
Agreed.
Bob Griffin
December 26th, 2012
3:49 pm
If we are fortunate to get to the second round and travel to Atlanta Ima let Mr. Weatherspoon play with my Cousins this time. Do not want.
GTBOB
December 26th, 2012
4:23 pm
Falcons will lose first round game! They need Paul Johnson!!
wreckmaniac
December 26th, 2012
6:43 pm
Three teams are highly likely to make it- New England, Denver, and Green Bay. The rest are higher risks including Baltimore since Flacco hasn’t been impressive this year. All others are wannabees.
Atlanta has more than enough talent but no prior success and is thus not taken seriously.