NFL playoffs about QBs, coaches — and Falcons have shot
Matt Ryan and Mike Smith will be looking to improve on their postseason resume in three weeks. (Curtis Compton/AJC)
With few exceptions, Super Bowls are won by teams with a great quarterback and a great head coach. Or in the case of the Baltimore Ravens in 2001, a defense so great that it can overcome Trent Dilfer.
Results by Matt Ryan and the Mike Smith-coached Falcons this season suggest Atlanta is in a pretty good spot to go to the Super Bowl for only the second time in franchise history, and possibly win it. Ryan is having the best season of his career. Smith has kept his team focused and ascending over the past four weeks (exception: the Carolina game) and upgraded his staff with coordinators Mike Nolan (defense) and Dirk Koetter (offense).
What Ryan and Smith both lack is a playoff resume. Here are my rankings of the potential 15 quarterback-coach combinations in the playoff field (10 teams that have clinched, five that are in the hunt):
1. Tom Brady-Bill Belichick (New England): It has been eight seasons since the Patriots have won a Super Bowl. But with a game on the line, Brady and Belichick (three Super Bowls won, two lost) still rank above any other duo. The Patriots are the league’s highest-scoring team (35.3) and probably still the most feared team, despite a very average defense.
2. Aaron Rodgers-Mike McCarthy (Green Bay): The only quarterback with more touchdown passes than Rodgers (35) is Drew Brees (39). The difference: Rodgers has eight interceptions, Brees 18. The Packers were probably the best team in the league last season, but killed themselves with four turnovers in the playoffs against New York.
Nobody will be too upset if these two don't make the playoffs. (AP)
3. (Not in) Eli Manning-Tom Coughlin (N.Y. Giants): The Giants likely will miss the playoffs, which should comfort everybody else. For as many regular season problems as they’ve had, Manning and Coughlin have won eight of their last nine postseason games, including two Super Bowls.
4. Peyton Manning-John Fox (Denver): Fox made it to a Super Bowl in his second season with Carolina. Manning lost his first three playoff games but won seven of his next 10, including a Super Bowl. Personally, I think Denver is a little overrated because of a soft schedule (helped by the AFC West), but Manning and Fox aren’t going to be an easy out.
5. Joe Flacco-John Harbaugh (Baltimore): The defense isn’t as strong as past Baltimore teams. But the Ravens have never been one-and-done in four postseasons with Flacco and Harbaugh. Flacco has seven touchdown passes and two interceptions in his last four playoff games.
6. Matt Ryan-Mike Smith (Falcons): They’re 0-3 in the playoffs and had better performances as quarterback/head coach rookies in 2008 than the last two years. Lost to two Super Bowl winners (Green Bay and New York) and one finalist (Arizona) is some consolation. But the last two years the team didn’t look prepared for the moment.
7. Matt Schaub-Gary Kubiak (Houston): Schaub has never taken a playoff snap. Kubiak coached in his first postseason last year, impressively winning a game with a rookie backup quarterback (T.J. Yates). The Texans are similar to the Falcons: a playoff unknown.
Did Jim Harbaugh choose right with Colin Kaepernick? (Getty Images)
8. Colin Kaepernick-Jim Harbaugh (San Francisco): Harbaugh is a great coach, making it to the NFC title game in his first postseason (losing to the Giants in overtime). But switching to a rookie, Kaepernick, in midseason from Alex Smith was a big risk, even if Kaepernick has a bigger upside.
9. (Not in) Tony Romo-Jason Garrett (Dallas): Tony Romo is talented and tough, but he still makes too many mistakes in big moments and he’s only 1-4 in the playoffs. Jason Garrett might just be keeping the job warm for Sean Payton.
10. (Not in) Robert Griffin III-Mike Shanahan (Washington): Shanahan won two Super Bowls in Denver, he’s one of the best offensive/quarterback coaches in history and he’s done a nice job with RGIII. But Griffin probably is too banged up to expect a long playoff run (if the Redskins get in).
11. Andy Dalton-Marvin Lewis (Cincinnati): Marvin Lewis has been in Cincinnati for a long time (10 years) for a guy who’s never won a playoff game.
12. Andrew Luck-Chuck Pagano (Indianapolis): Luck (taking over for Manning) and Pagano (coming back from leukemia) makes for the best story of the playoffs. The Colts could be a dangerous team in the playoffs.
13. Russell Wilson-Pete Carroll (Seattle): Two guys who have far exceeded expectations. But sorry. I’m not buying in. The Seahawks (3-5 on road) will be a one-and-done wild card.
14. (Not in) Jay Cutler-Lovie Smith (Chicago): Cutler has the talent, just not always the head or leadership to go with it.
15. (Not in) Christian Ponder-Leslie Frazier (Minnesota): If we were ranking running games (Adrian Peterson), the Vikings would be a lot higher.
By Jeff Schultz
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205 comments Add your comment
falcon fan since '66
December 25th, 2012
6:57 pm
Hey Dave, Colin K is not a rookie.. I was on the NBC sports website last week, and they billed the SF/SEA game as a battle of rookie QB’s. So I guess mistakes happenseven to the best!
Merry Christmas and thanks for your work.
DawgNole
December 25th, 2012
7:12 pm
dg03
December 25th, 2012
6:55 pm
It’s not right but it is what it is! There is such a bias toward the Falcons by the media(espn etc) I saw the same against the Bulldogs. It is disgusting! There is hardly any good reporting about the team with the best record! Yes the best record! Did you hear me espn? We are tired of being treated as second class citizens! Ok I am glad I got that out! I was about to explode. Oh did I tell you that the Falcons have the best record?
dg03
December 25th, 2012
6:56 pm
Oh and don’t bring up the Falcon’s playoff record. The playoffs haven’t even started yet!
______________________
Uh, can I mention the Falcons’ playoff record? After all, that is the reason they still get little respect from the national media. Win in the postseason, however, and that respect will come.
DawgNole
December 25th, 2012
7:21 pm
falcon fan since ‘66
December 25th, 2012
6:57 pm
Hey Dave, Colin K is not a rookie.. I was on the NBC sports website last week, and they billed the SF/SEA game as a battle of rookie QB’s. So I guess mistakes happenseven to the best!
Merry Christmas and thanks for your work.
_____________________
Who’s Dave?
Cheech
December 25th, 2012
7:23 pm
Dave’s not here man.
Georgia
December 25th, 2012
7:45 pm
The Falcons haven’t committed an act common to the game yet this year, but I like their chances in the playoffs. Go Falcons.
DawgNole
December 25th, 2012
7:55 pm
Cheech
December 25th, 2012
7:23 pm
Dave’s not here man.
____________________
I believe you’re correct, Cheech.
Fickle Mike
December 25th, 2012
8:08 pm
Ok- this is ATL correct ??? Falcons will choke in the playoffs. Book it !!
Chaos
December 25th, 2012
8:28 pm
haters will hate but when they talk about Football you notice how the Falcons name always comes up. If we in the playoffs enough we got to win one someday. Go Falcons!
Ken
December 25th, 2012
8:40 pm
Falcons are going to get 2 playoff wins in Jan 2013!!
1eyedJack
December 25th, 2012
9:34 pm
I remember when Randy Johnson was the QB. Man…am I gettin’ old.
Larry
December 25th, 2012
9:56 pm
“Shanahan won two Super Bowls in Denver, he’s one of the best offensive/quarterback coaches in history..”
Based on what?
Shanahan is the most overrated head coaches in NFL history who simply was fortunate enough, unlike Dan Reeves, to get John Elway paired with a great RB in Terrel Davis yielding two Suer Bowls. This was the 97 & 98 seasons (13 seasons ago) and he has done absolutely nothing since.
Shanahan was simply lucky to inherit Elway, that’s all.
GJ
December 25th, 2012
10:22 pm
I think that Seattle is the most dangerous team, they’re hot at the right time of the year
Jeff Schultz
December 25th, 2012
10:33 pm
Dawgnole — Thank you.
Jeff Schultz
December 25th, 2012
10:35 pm
Larry — Talk to the quarterbacks and the offensive players who’ve played for Shanahan and you’ll have your answer. I can also tell you that I covered the 49ers during and post-Bill Walsh, and Walsh told me Shanahan took his offense to places he never thought possible. That’s a good enough source for me.
Tundra Dude
December 25th, 2012
10:36 pm
GJ wrote:
I think that Seattle is the most dangerous team, they’re hot at the right time of the year.
The playoffs are a whole different ballgame. Wouldn’t surprise me if they laid an egg on the road vs the Redskins.
Nobody noticed, but my Packers are getting their starters back……
We’ll be down there for the NFC championship game.
ps: Rodgers loves them domes….better footing, no wind, better grip on the ball, compared to frozen Tundra balls.
Mora less Petrino
December 25th, 2012
11:02 pm
28, mora less. (Not in, not even close) Michael Vick – Andy Reid (Philadelphia Eagles): Sunday at 1:00 in NY, Titanic II will be on stage for the final performance. Spoiler Alert: Though some of the crew survive, the Skipper and his First Mate go down with the ship.
LOL at the Aints
December 25th, 2012
11:07 pm
45ACP, Well said, LOL
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December 25th, 2012
11:10 pm
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twoiron
December 25th, 2012
11:13 pm
I would flip 5 and 6
Put in Timeout by Ken Suguira,Filtered by Mark Bradley, Banned by Bill King, Chip Towers & only slightly loved by Jeff Schultz.
December 26th, 2012
12:44 am
I would flip 9 and 6 they fit together better. LOL
ChipperisGod
December 26th, 2012
1:39 am
To all the people complaining about Turner, I have this to say. Yes he’s slowed down, and is aging. But he gets no help from his offensive line a lot of the time. That safety that happened on Saturday was a direct result of Konz missing his block who is proving that he is having a hard time adjusting moving to the guard position.
Our O line isn’t good at supporting the run (much better at pass protection than last year however), and most importantly we have no real FB. Mike Cox is a terrible blocker and the running game has been hurt ever since he took over as FB.
Ovie made a huge difference when he was here with his fantastic blocking. Ever since he went down for the season last year, our running game has been anemic for the most part. He was the X factor in my book, because before he went down, Turner seemed a bit slower, but still put up solid numbers. Now he looks so much slower and that is due to the line and to the lack of a true, nasty FB.
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December 26th, 2012
2:02 am
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Sargent Carter
December 26th, 2012
5:08 am
Sorry, just clicked my heels 3 times and Falcons did not call Super Bowl home, gonna be another of many depressing endings for us falcon fans….something missing from this team AGAIN?!…AGAIN???????….Dallas 30 atl 27 1980 something
Jes
December 26th, 2012
5:56 am
Sounds Good, about the coach and qb…but don’t forget the other players who run the damn ball and whi catch the damn ball.
Me Too
December 26th, 2012
6:06 am
ChippeisGod – “Ovie made a huge difference when he was here with his fantastic blocking.”
Go to ESPN stats for previous years and look at the lost games. You will see when Ovie was in Turner made no difference. It is especially true for the playoff loses. If the offensive line is so bad, it doesn’t take a idiot to know not to run Michael Turner from 7 yards deep in the end zone. So why hasn’t HC Smith recognized it doesn’t work.
RB
December 26th, 2012
7:22 am
Don’t sleep on the Seahawks!
Call It Like It Is
December 26th, 2012
7:27 am
Sorry don’t wish to be a naysayer but every year same thing with the Falcons and the Braves, they get everybody hyped up than, bam out they go. Wish them the best, but prepared for the worst.
Chop Buster
December 26th, 2012
7:28 am
Please stop with the Seahawks proclamations. They have weaknesses just like any other team. Here’s what they’ve done:
Losses
Cardinals
Rams
49ers
Lions
Dolphins
Wins
Cowboys
Greenbay – questionable TD to win
Panthers
Patriots
Vikings
Bears
Cardinals
Bills
SF
The 50 burgers were put up against the Cardinals and Bills. I’ve said all year SF has a weak secondary. This team will get its butt kicked if they come into the GA Dome. They have a new QB, but that’s the same defense and secondary Roddy, Julio, Tony G and HD abused last year in Seattle. Have we all forgotten that?
Chop Buster
December 26th, 2012
8:08 am
Just heard Seahawks worked out Ray Edwards…hmnnnn wonder what’s that about? Can’t be for his talent. Maybe they’re trying to get some early Falcons scouting information.
Angela
December 26th, 2012
8:12 am
The Falcons were in the Super Bowl in 1999 under Dan Reeves where they lost to the Denver Broncos. They have been beyond the first round of the playoffs.
greg
December 26th, 2012
8:20 am
gonna be a crazy playoff picture with no nfc east team,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, wait,,, jeff didnt count out the eagles
Nick
December 26th, 2012
8:34 am
where do Sanchez and Rex Ryan rank? LOL
CS
December 26th, 2012
8:56 am
@Chop Buster- very good point about the pasting we gave the Seahawks last year!
Gabe
December 26th, 2012
9:08 am
17 killed in car wrecks over the christmas weekend-tuesday. I guess we need car control and also limits. One car per person and the car can’t be a sports car nor a car over 12 years old. And it must pass more rigorous inspections.
JSS
December 26th, 2012
9:10 am
“Please stop with the Seahawks proclamations. They have weaknesses just like any other team. Here’s what they’ve done:”
Losses
Cardinals
Rams
49ers
Lions
Dolphins
24 point difference total in those 5 losses. In all of those games, they were never out of any of their losses. That is 2010 Green Bay stuff regardless of how you want to marginalize them. That running game travels. That defense travels, only one team has scored more than 24 points on them (28 by the Lions), and that was two months ago. Whoever comes out that 3-6 matchup is going to be battle tested…
Larry
December 26th, 2012
9:13 am
Jeff,
In his 15 seasons as a head coach (Oakland, Denver, Washington) without the services of John Elway paired with Terrell Davis Mike Shanahan is barely above .500 in winning percentage. 15 seasons is overwhelming and convincing evidence of the very definition of an “average” coach at best. Worse, he has the reputation of a snakelike, backstabber who planted a butcher knife in the back of the man that hired him after his disastrous Oakland record, Dan Reeves.
John Elway piloted Denver to three Super Bowls BEFORE Shanahan became head coach won two because of the addition of Terrell Davis and an improved defense, not because of anything Shanahan did.
Shanahan is grossly overrated.
Larry
December 26th, 2012
9:14 am
Jeff,
In his 15 seasons as a head coach (Oakland, Denver, Washingtin) without the services of John Elway paired with Terrell Davis Mike Shanahan is barely above .500 in winning percentage. 15 seasons is overwhelming and convincing evidence of the very definition of an “average” coach at best. Worse, he has the reputation of a snakelike, backstabber who planted a butcher knife in the ack of the man that hired him after his disastrous Oakland record, Dan Reeves.
John Elway piloted Denver to three Super Bowls BEFORE Shanahan became head coach won two because of Terrell Davis and an improved defense, not because of anything Shanahan did.
Shanahan is grossly overrated…case closed.
DJANGO
December 26th, 2012
9:15 am
The D is silent but Ray Edwards is spilling all the play book to Seattle.
Talk about irony and karma.
carzo
December 26th, 2012
9:17 am
ChipperisGod: Are you kidding? Cox blocks fine. Watch the game sometime. Turner is a complete plodder who runs up linemen’s backsides continuously and has no ability to cut or change direction. Sure, the O-line could be better. But watch any NFL game and compare their RBs to Turner. No contest.
DJANGO
December 26th, 2012
9:17 am
You guys are missing the big picture. Most of Seattle losses
Were on the 1st half of season. They are 6-1 since.
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DP
December 26th, 2012
9:27 am
Gabe, don’t be an idiot. Cars have a purpose. What is the purpose of an assault weapon other than to kill a lot of people in a minute or less?
JSS
December 26th, 2012
9:28 am
As much as I dislike Shanahan’s stubborn side, going to the Niners saved him. He discovered the run-heavy version of the West Coast offense. He got Elway to buy into letting the runners shoulder the load. Go look at the numbers.
UGA83
December 26th, 2012
9:28 am
Flacko had a very slight edge on Ryan about three years ago, since then Ryan has clearly been the better QB. Eli has been very overrated due primarily to a helmet catch of another poorly thrown ball. Yes they made two great playoff runs all the way to the top, but I’d love for thme to back in and play the Birds in round two.
extremus
December 26th, 2012
9:29 am
I have a strong feeling that Michael Turner won’t be with the Falcons next season regardless of this year’s outcome. A bruising, explosive power running back is something the Falcons offense sorely needs for the passing game to be used to its full potential…and Turner ain’t it. Don’t think for a moment that Dimitroff and Smith don’t realize that (though I agree on the point they’re still giving the ball to him way too often, particularly on futile sweep pattern attempts). If the Falcons can get a good RB and a legitimate pass rush over the offseason (along with perhaps a kick returner who doesn’t fair catch by default), they just might be a “complete” team.
Just an Old Falcon Fan
December 26th, 2012
9:31 am
The Seahawks are a up and down team. If they come in here on one of their down weeks we will probably blow them out. If they come in here on one of their up weeks we will have our hands full. One thing is for sure and that is if we aren’t spring loaded ready for anything and everything that comes our way there will be no SB for the Falcons.
JSS
December 26th, 2012
9:33 am
CS
December 26th, 2012
8:56 am
“@Chop Buster- very good point about the pasting we gave the Seahawks last year!”
Tavaris Jackson (2011 Seahawks QB) will be nowhere in the vicinity, that automatically makes any game more competitive…
Larry
December 26th, 2012
9:35 am
JSS,
Would I be guessing correctly that your favorite two teams for the playoffs are Seattle and Washington?
DP
December 26th, 2012
9:36 am
“Eli has been very overrated due primarily to a helmet catch of another poorly thrown ball.”
UGA83, you can’t be serious, or you have a very bad memory. Take a look at that play again on YouTube and you’ll see Eli somehow escaping what looked like a sack and throwing that ball into the teeth of the defense. And he had to take the Giants the rest of the way down the field after that.
How about that throw on the deep sideline pass to Manningham in the game winning Super Bowl drive last year. Was that also a “poorly thrown ball”?
Two game winning no huddle drives to win Super Bowls and you think Eli is “very overrated”? I can only imagine what you must think of Aaron Murray.
Nativebird
December 26th, 2012
9:52 am
We will see if Mike Smith has learned what it takes to win championships in this league. And yes, right now I would indeed say more like Marty Scottenheiner but even more like MARV Levy right now. What these Falcons need is a Jimmy Johnson or Bill Belichek type….nice guys may not finish last in the NFL…but they certainly don’t finish first.