Predictions: Georgia pulls upset, Tech goes down
According to various websites that I looked through while doing research for this final week of investments — not counting those that kept asking for a credit card number, age verification and automatically opened 27 new windows (Close! Close! Dang it, close!) while my wife screamed down to the basement, “Are you still looking at point spreads!?” — I came across some interesting statistics.
The chances of winning Wednesday night’s $579 million Powerball drawing were approximately 1 in 176 million. That was still far more likely than the odds of having a meteor land on my house: 1 in 182,138,880,000,000. Or about double that for the same meteor landing on the ACC championship game and hitting somebody.
Is that a meteor falling on me, or Dogs going to BCS?
Other odds I came across: 1 in 3 million chance of spotting a UFO; 1 in 11,500 of bowling 300 in a game; 1 in 649,740 of being dealt a royal flush; 1 in 20 million of being canonized; about even-money that one of those Christmas bell-ringers in front of Kroger will spot Bobby Petrino and punch him in the face, and 99 out of 100 that the aforementioned bell-ringer will be canonized.
Which leads me to Saturday’s SEC championship game between Alabama and Georgia. The odds are against Georgia winning. I know this because I keep hearing analysts break down the Alabama-Notre Dame game like Georgia is a hologram.
Lord Saban, via Tigersx.com. (Not my art work, honest.)
Yes, Alabama is good. The Tide have won two of the past three national titles. People are scared when they just look at a picture of Nick Saban, although in fairness you can’t tell from the picture that he’s only 4-foot-2.
Here’s what I see: Georgia’s defense is playing really well. Aaron Murray is throwing to the correct receivers (also the correct team). Todd Gurley — freshman going on Athens mayor. The Bulldogs were smacked at South Carolina, but Alabama lost at home to Texas A&M. The Aggies scored touchdowns on their first three possessions with that crazy no-huddle thing that Saban fears will doom civilization.
Georgia has a shot. A good shot. In fact — wait, did somebody just see a meteor? — I’m going upset. Take the 7½ points, but Dogs win the SEC and move on to the BCS.
(Programming note: We’ll be back in a few weeks with a special bowl edition of “Weekend Predictions,” as well as a new “Sack Schultz” bowl contest. Details to come.)
It’s Hawaii or Bust! You contest video update
Undercard Events
(Look for expanded SEC and ACC game predictions in Saturday’s AJC.)
OK, I'll take some dish soap, paper plates, ACC tickets ...
ACC: Georgia Tech vs. FSU: John Swofford dreamed the other night that he was eaten by 12,000 tarantulas. Unfortunately, he woke up to the real nightmare of his deteriorating conference title game: Tech is coming off a loss to Georgia. FSU is coming off a loss to Florida. Tech (6-6) is only because Miami and North Carolina are in NCAA timeout. Need a ticket? It’s $4. A section? Still $4. Seminoles win but take Tech and 14.
Pac-12: UCLA: vs. Stanford: Jim Mora denies he intentionally lost last week’s game to Stanford to avoid a match-up with Oregon. I believe him. Only brilliant coaches could pull off something that devious. Same story in the rematch: Cardinal covers 9.
Big Ten: Nebraska vs. Wisconsin: Wisconsin is the Big Ten’s highest ranking ethical team in the Leaders Division at 4-4 and therefore is a conference finalist. So I guess the term “Leaders” is all relative to the Big Ten, huh? Huskers covers 2½.
What the ACC needs is a good promotion
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Saints at Falcons: The Saints are 5-6. If the playoffs opened today, they’d be in the Poinsettia bowl. This also will be Jonathan Vilma’s last game before the NFL bounty hearings, so if y’all could bring some cookies or maybe write a nice card for him to read during incarceration, that would be nice. Meanwhile, the Falcons are pretty banged up. But at 10-1, pain is all relative. Falcons cover 3½.
NFL Fridge Pack
The NFL's new simplified training regimen.
Seahawks at Bears: Forget Adderall suspensions. Chicago’s Brandon Marshall claims some players are seeking an edge with Viagra. Funny. I never looked at preseason games as foreplay before. Chicago covers 3½.
Texans at Titans: And then there’s the anti-Viagra: Ndamukong Suh’s foot somehow ended up in Matt Schaub’s groin. The good news: If Houston goes to the Super Bowl, Schaub can sing the national anthem. Houston wins but give me Tennessee and 6.
49ers at Rams: There are two sides to the debate on whether Jim Harbaugh should have benched Alex Smith. One side: It’s only Alex Smith. The other side: well, actually, there is no other side. Niners cover 7.
Panthers at Chiefs: If the Panthers (3-8) lose, it would make the home stretch stumble for the No. 1 pick interesting. Probably explains why the Chiefs (1-10) announced plans to wear Crocs. Carolina covers 3.
Eagles at Cowboys: Online headline: “Andy Reid to coach this week.” That would be a season first. Dallas covers 10.
The Eagles are dead. Like the parrot
•
TIME TO SETTLE UP
“If you ain’t just a little scared when you enter a casino, you are either very rich or you haven’t studied the games enough.” — VP Pappy
Last week: 10-1 straight up, 7-3-1 against the line.
Bottom dollars: 110-35 straight up, 85-58-2 against the line.
“Sack Schultz” update: This is it — the winner of the $5,000 Hawaii trip will be awarded this week. Our leader is “Wildone” of Kansas at 146 wins but 10 others are within five picks. I am not one of those 10.
Lilly Pick of the Week: Lilly (8-4) is on a five-game winning streak since her one-week furlough. This week, it was a choice between cheese-accessorized pictures of Uga and Nick Saban. Didn’t even look at Saban. Straight to Uga. Arf.
True story: Lilly swooped in on Uga's cheese so fast, I couldn't picture in time.
By Jeff Schultz
For previous episodes of Weekend predictions, click here.
For recent ramblings, take a look below
• Georgia’s best chance vs. Alabama may be to step on the gas
• SEC title would mean Georgia’s return to elite status
• Georgia playing at level we haven’t seen under Richt
• Short takes (UGA): Rambo’s ascent, Gurley’s comfort
• Upsetting Georgia would give Tech needed boost for future
• Weekend Predictions: Georgia will win on Red-and-Black-Saturday
• Vince Dooley: Joy from Georgia’s resurgence, pain from son’s firing
• Wonder why SEC is on top? Look at other conference finals
• Falcons win — but run before somebody changes their mind
• Georgia’s new reality: From on the brink to BCS title possibility
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440 comments Add your comment
GTBob
November 29th, 2012
3:39 pm
You would rather kill yourself but you’re constantly amoung us.You’re either a Dawg fan,obssesed with Georgia football or mentality ill.
From those two options I will accept mentally ill.
Rick James
November 29th, 2012
3:41 pm
@GTBob
A Tech win of course. Im looking forward to battling the Golden Flashes in the Orange Bowl.
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Glad you’re just looking foward to getting there and not winning because we know that wont happen regardless of the opponent.
Justin
November 29th, 2012
3:42 pm
Respect is earned… The Falcons had dome field advantage through the playoffs last year. How’d that work out?? I’m a Falcons fan, but we gotta earn respect by winning in the playoffs. Regular season doesn’t mean anything.
Same with UGA… Beat us (BAMA), and you’ll earn some respect.
Roll Damn Tide!!
Patched Tire On I-95 in Jacksonville
November 29th, 2012
3:43 pm
FSU and Clemps son the most under achieving teams in college football????
How is that
I mean I hear every year how great Coach Fish Fry’s offense is and yet every year they cant win in the easiest conference in college football
Tech is the clear underachiever
Rick James
November 29th, 2012
3:47 pm
@GTBob
From those two options I will accept mentally ill.
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That may be part of it..I think the abuse you take here reminds you of the abuse you took as a gay teenager and is just something you enjoy.
WDE
November 29th, 2012
3:49 pm
Justin that was a fair statement , to be the best you have to beat the best…we will see on Saturday. Go Dogs!
Buckeye
November 29th, 2012
3:51 pm
discount,
It has been a long time, hasn’t it? Last Century is memory serves.
Buckeye
November 29th, 2012
3:53 pm
wa wa wa . No one is respecting the dogs.
WDE
November 29th, 2012
3:55 pm
And how you feeling all the love coming OSU’s way? You get disdain with a side of probation !
Buckeye
November 29th, 2012
3:56 pm
discount,
If tom brown will forgive, let’s look at
NC’s
All time wins ( minus vaca’s, of course. Must accept responsibility, right?)
Heismans
the dogs and guershel of herschel or whatever you’re calling your backs lately were a one year wonder way back in 1980
Patched Tire On I-95 in Jacksonville
November 29th, 2012
4:00 pm
Buckeye
Seriously
I could understand if Ohio St were AL LSU Nebraska FL USC but they arent I mean Ohio St hasnt done anything more than UGA has the last 40 years
You act like they are some elite program
They’re not
They play in a conference that has only two teams and a conference that hasnt even won more National Titles than the ACC in 40 years
Ohio St gets mentioned cause ESPN is mostly a bunch of Big 10 Grads with several Ohio St homers
St Simons
November 29th, 2012
4:00 pm
uh oh, new here, i’m a uga dad, did i pick a handle of some evil troll?
oh and look, a Little 10 FCS league troll, on a Big Boy football blog.
how cute
My 3 kids (& money) go to Athens, but Murray’s gonna stink it up.
and lose it. Wish it was different. But its not. UGA had a good yr.
And my kids will make more money when they graduate. Its all good.
Les go surfin
Discount DoubleDawg
November 29th, 2012
4:00 pm
You got me buckeye- your last one was 2002… dang, you got me. I forgot how awesome the buckeyes were since I only get to watch them play SEC teams in bowl games. Makes me forget all those glory years over the last 30 seasons.
Rick James
November 29th, 2012
4:02 pm
What is this obsession with Georgia football by these fans of other schools? If your team is ranked higher,if your coach(who may have gotten run out of the SEC) is better,if your team won a national championship more recently(even though they cant beat an SEC team)or if your team is not in a bowl because they’re on probation and you have nothing better to do.We get it..
I'm a Georgia fan. It's a license to be stupid.
November 29th, 2012
4:03 pm
please, please keep pumpin them up Jeff…the dawg tears will be flowing so hard Saturday nite that it will look like an afternoon shower in the dome…Bama 43 uga 16…note to the dawg fanbase: know your role, and shut your mouth…dummies…
Tide 48
November 29th, 2012
4:05 pm
I know UGA nor Bama fans can’t bear the thought of losing this game but this should make all SEC fans feel good!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=OFClDnJLXz4
GTBob
November 29th, 2012
4:11 pm
That may be part of it..I think the abuse you take here reminds you of the abuse you took as a gay teenager and is just something you enjoy.
Sorry, I didn’t take much abuse as a teenager. I actually had a pretty normal life. The abuse I take here makes me laugh more than anything.
GTBob
November 29th, 2012
4:12 pm
Glad you’re just looking foward to getting there and not winning because we know that wont happen regardless of the opponent.
Maybe not. It would be funny to crash the part either way.
GT Joe
November 29th, 2012
4:16 pm
Rick James: Kansas State has a tougher schedule than UGA. Not Kent State. This was in reference to Thomas Browns rant about Kansas State not beating anyone good…
And yes, I’d rather see UGA lose than Tech win this Saturday.
Buckeye
November 29th, 2012
4:25 pm
It’s gonna be great. 4 quarters against grown ass men – not some November SEC! SEC! cupcake . I’ll take Rambo’s first late hit penalty will be in Q1. Murray’s first pick in the first series and Grantham’s (Beaver Cleaver in a cap) first F bomb caught on TV in Q2. Win With’s hair ( what’s left) will be freshly blown and sprayed.
Rick James
November 29th, 2012
4:28 pm
@GT Joe
Rick James: Kansas State has a tougher schedule than UGA. Not Kent State. This was in reference to Thomas Browns rant about Kansas State not beating anyone good…
And yes, I’d rather see UGA lose than Tech win this Saturday.
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So what is they have tougher schedule than Georgia’s I’m sure they would rather be a game away from playing for the national championship..I’m sure you would rather see Georgia lose,like most Tech fans who hide behind other teams because your team has lost 11 out of the last 12 and wont beat Georgia again for the next five years..
Buckeye
November 29th, 2012
4:30 pm
Tide 48,
Good one. Thanks for posting.
dubshakk
November 29th, 2012
4:34 pm
Bama’s OL vs UGA’s front seven will be key. Bama has to be able to run on them, to keep their offense in 2nd & 5’s, 3rd & 2’s. UGA’s biggest key is that they cannot turn the ball over and waste opportunities. If Murray gets some time in the pocket, he could move the ball on them. I just think in a game with this much riding on it, Saban will have his team ready for the adversity they will face, can’t bet against him. Good luck to both teams.
old dog
November 29th, 2012
4:35 pm
The strength of schedule be d#mned, K.State is not an elite team……….they will find out at bowl time unless they get a lucky draw….
GTBob
November 29th, 2012
4:39 pm
The strength of schedule be d#mned, K.State is not an elite team………
Maybe not, but neither is UGA.
dubshakk
November 29th, 2012
4:41 pm
“The strength of schedule be d#mned, K.State is not an elite team……….they will find out at bowl time unless they get a lucky draw….”
-
I hope LSU gets K-State in the Cotton Bowl if they don’t make it to a BCS bowl.
Rick James
November 29th, 2012
4:43 pm
@GTBob
The strength of schedule be d#mned, K.State is not an elite team………
Maybe not, but neither is UGA.
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Nor is anybody in the ACC
GT Joe
November 29th, 2012
4:48 pm
Why would I rather see UGA lose than Tech win this Saturday?
Because if UGA wins, the next month will be so incredibly annoying, leading up to the title game. All those ugly “G” flags on cars, etc. All the PUFFED UP mutt fans… it will be a nightmare.
GT Joe
November 29th, 2012
4:50 pm
K state not elite? what is the definition of elite?
dubshakk
November 29th, 2012
4:55 pm
“K state not elite? what is the definition of elite?”
-
Elite = A team that does not get blown out by Baylor.
chase
November 29th, 2012
5:01 pm
Advantages – WR – UGA w/King, Mitchell, Wooten,
TE – UGA w/Rome and Lynch
OL – BAMA
QB – EVEN – yes even –
RB – UGA – this is hands down with Gurley and Marshall and Malcome
DL – UGA – Jon Jenkins, Geathers, Smith – enough said
LB – UGA- Jarvis Jones, Ogletree, Herrara, Robinson, Jordan Jenkins no contest!
DB – EVEN
Saftey – UGA with Rambo and Williams no contest
Special Teams – EVEN
It is just the Dawgs’ time, they are peaking at the right time…Dawgs win it
GTBob
November 29th, 2012
5:02 pm
Elite = A team that does not get blown out by Baylor.
An Elite team would not get blown out by anybody, including Baylor or South Carolina.
chase
November 29th, 2012
5:04 pm
and BAMA does not have the PASS RUSH of SCAR or FLORIDA…they have like 23 sacks as a team from 14 different players
GTBob
November 29th, 2012
5:05 pm
Nor is anybody in the ACC
I wouldn’t even say there is an average team in the ACC. The ACC is beyond horrible.
GT Joe
November 29th, 2012
5:06 pm
dubshakk: an elite team doesn’t get shut out for 59 minutes (i.e., UGA vs. sc).
Any other definitions of “elite”?
Discount DoubleDawg
November 29th, 2012
5:08 pm
Gtbob- re: Elite
That is true unless that team also wins the National Championship game.
Rick James
November 29th, 2012
5:09 pm
@GT Joe
Why would I rather see UGA lose than Tech win this Saturday?
Because if UGA wins, the next month will be so incredibly annoying, leading up to the title game. All those ugly “G” flags on cars, etc. All the PUFFED UP mutt fans… it will be a nightmare.
————————————————————————————————————————–
You should be used to it now..Its how we act leading up to the last Saturday of every November.You’ve gotten your tails kicked 11 out of the last 12 games,26 of the last 33.The word for what you’re feeling is envy..I guess its easier to envy Georgia than cheer for that product Paul Johnson coaches.Why dont you use that energy and go up to Charlotte and watch your team.You can a seat for 4 bucks.
GTBob
November 29th, 2012
5:09 pm
That is true unless that team also wins the National Championship game.
Im not sure that has ever happened and it would be pretty embarrassing for college football if it did.
GTBob
November 29th, 2012
5:14 pm
The word for what you’re feeling is envy.
Why would GT fans envy UGA at all? I envy their schedule this season but thats about it.
Discount DoubleDawg
November 29th, 2012
5:16 pm
And I know it would drive you crazy if it happens… The odds are against us that it will happen but it can and I am hoping it does. If it does, I don’t think anyone without a bias against the dawgs will give 2 flips about the loss to USC… so no it won’t be embarrassing to non-dawg haters.
Rick James
November 29th, 2012
5:19 pm
@GT Joe
dubshakk: an elite team doesn’t get shut out for 59 minutes (i.e., UGA vs. sc).
Any other definitions of “elite”?
——————————————————————————————————-
I guess a team from Middle Tennesee that manhandles an ACC team on their home field.Or a team of mormons that embarrasses an AAC team at it’s homecoming game..Or even a team gets blown out of a mid season game yet bounces back to within reach of the BCS title.
Arthur Redding Jr.
November 29th, 2012
5:22 pm
Heard that Orange Bowl officials–distraught over the possibility of Kent State or Northern Illinois playing GT in their game–either one would be favored over Tech–and losing wads of money–went out and bought 10,000 Powerball tickets last night.
dubshakk
November 29th, 2012
5:25 pm
Just messin with ya GT’s, I’m not a UGA fan, so whatever.
GTBob
November 29th, 2012
5:28 pm
I don’t think anyone without a bias against the dawgs will give 2 flips about the loss to USC…
Sorry but UGA wasn’t even slightly competitive in that game. It was worse than the UGA/GT game. For a team that got destroyed that bad to win the national championship it would just show a huge flaw in the system. No one would actually believe that UGA was the best team in the country.
ATLcracker
November 29th, 2012
5:31 pm
I guarantee you that at some point viagra/cialis/levitra will be banned as athletic performance enhancing drugs. Besides its use for erectile dysfunction Viagra is approved by the FDA under another name (Revatio) for the treatment of pulmonary hypertension. That is the problem of increased pressure and decreased blood flow in the blood vessels connecting the heart to the lungs. It is very effective. I had a patient who had to rest half way between the waiting room and the exam room before starting Revatio. After that he told me he had no problem walking up a fairly steep hill to his job every day. In an athlete increased blood flow to the lungs with decreased effort would enhance oxygen carrying capacity and improve performance. there is already at least one study that seemed to show significantly improved athletic performance in trained athletes at altitude but not at sea level. Curiously only 40 % of the athletes showed the improvement. The other 60 % it made no difference.
Rick James
November 29th, 2012
5:32 pm
@GTBob
Why would GT fans envy UGA at all? I envy their schedule this season but thats about it.
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With you Bob its envy,obssesion,you’re a Georgia fan,mentally ill or full of self hatred..Yeah that Tech schedule sure was a killer…
Patched Tire On I-95 in Jacksonville
November 29th, 2012
5:35 pm
GT Bob
Yea I agree just like 1990 when Tech tied a middle of the road UNC team and played in the Citrus Bowl against a #17 ranked team for their so called National Title game
No wonder people outside Atlanta and this state are shocked to find out Tech claims a non existent UPI championship when everyone knows Colorado was the real winner
Discount DoubleDawg
November 29th, 2012
5:38 pm
sorry Bob, but if Georgia wins the NC no one will care about the USC game other than haters…the system has been flawed in the same way for years so maybe we should just stop counting NC’s until we have the perfect system… I’m sure the next system will be perfect, right?
GTBob
November 29th, 2012
5:41 pm
No wonder people outside Atlanta and this state are shocked to find out Tech claims a non existent UPI championship when everyone knows Colorado was the real winner
You do know the UPI poll was the coaches poll, right?
GTBob
November 29th, 2012
5:45 pm
With you Bob its envy,obssesion,you’re a Georgia fan,mentally ill or full of self hatred..Yeah that Tech schedule sure was a killer…
Or maybe its that I really don’t like UGA or UGA fans. You can try to be Dr. Phil all you want but it is pretty simple.