Predictions: Georgia pulls upset, Tech goes down
According to various websites that I looked through while doing research for this final week of investments — not counting those that kept asking for a credit card number, age verification and automatically opened 27 new windows (Close! Close! Dang it, close!) while my wife screamed down to the basement, “Are you still looking at point spreads!?” — I came across some interesting statistics.
The chances of winning Wednesday night’s $579 million Powerball drawing were approximately 1 in 176 million. That was still far more likely than the odds of having a meteor land on my house: 1 in 182,138,880,000,000. Or about double that for the same meteor landing on the ACC championship game and hitting somebody.
Is that a meteor falling on me, or Dogs going to BCS?
Other odds I came across: 1 in 3 million chance of spotting a UFO; 1 in 11,500 of bowling 300 in a game; 1 in 649,740 of being dealt a royal flush; 1 in 20 million of being canonized; about even-money that one of those Christmas bell-ringers in front of Kroger will spot Bobby Petrino and punch him in the face, and 99 out of 100 that the aforementioned bell-ringer will be canonized.
Which leads me to Saturday’s SEC championship game between Alabama and Georgia. The odds are against Georgia winning. I know this because I keep hearing analysts break down the Alabama-Notre Dame game like Georgia is a hologram.
Lord Saban, via Tigersx.com. (Not my art work, honest.)
Yes, Alabama is good. The Tide have won two of the past three national titles. People are scared when they just look at a picture of Nick Saban, although in fairness you can’t tell from the picture that he’s only 4-foot-2.
Here’s what I see: Georgia’s defense is playing really well. Aaron Murray is throwing to the correct receivers (also the correct team). Todd Gurley — freshman going on Athens mayor. The Bulldogs were smacked at South Carolina, but Alabama lost at home to Texas A&M. The Aggies scored touchdowns on their first three possessions with that crazy no-huddle thing that Saban fears will doom civilization.
Georgia has a shot. A good shot. In fact — wait, did somebody just see a meteor? — I’m going upset. Take the 7½ points, but Dogs win the SEC and move on to the BCS.
(Programming note: We’ll be back in a few weeks with a special bowl edition of “Weekend Predictions,” as well as a new “Sack Schultz” bowl contest. Details to come.)
It’s Hawaii or Bust! You contest video update
Undercard Events
(Look for expanded SEC and ACC game predictions in Saturday’s AJC.)
OK, I'll take some dish soap, paper plates, ACC tickets ...
ACC: Georgia Tech vs. FSU: John Swofford dreamed the other night that he was eaten by 12,000 tarantulas. Unfortunately, he woke up to the real nightmare of his deteriorating conference title game: Tech is coming off a loss to Georgia. FSU is coming off a loss to Florida. Tech (6-6) is only because Miami and North Carolina are in NCAA timeout. Need a ticket? It’s $4. A section? Still $4. Seminoles win but take Tech and 14.
Pac-12: UCLA: vs. Stanford: Jim Mora denies he intentionally lost last week’s game to Stanford to avoid a match-up with Oregon. I believe him. Only brilliant coaches could pull off something that devious. Same story in the rematch: Cardinal covers 9.
Big Ten: Nebraska vs. Wisconsin: Wisconsin is the Big Ten’s highest ranking ethical team in the Leaders Division at 4-4 and therefore is a conference finalist. So I guess the term “Leaders” is all relative to the Big Ten, huh? Huskers covers 2½.
What the ACC needs is a good promotion
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Saints at Falcons: The Saints are 5-6. If the playoffs opened today, they’d be in the Poinsettia bowl. This also will be Jonathan Vilma’s last game before the NFL bounty hearings, so if y’all could bring some cookies or maybe write a nice card for him to read during incarceration, that would be nice. Meanwhile, the Falcons are pretty banged up. But at 10-1, pain is all relative. Falcons cover 3½.
NFL Fridge Pack
The NFL's new simplified training regimen.
Seahawks at Bears: Forget Adderall suspensions. Chicago’s Brandon Marshall claims some players are seeking an edge with Viagra. Funny. I never looked at preseason games as foreplay before. Chicago covers 3½.
Texans at Titans: And then there’s the anti-Viagra: Ndamukong Suh’s foot somehow ended up in Matt Schaub’s groin. The good news: If Houston goes to the Super Bowl, Schaub can sing the national anthem. Houston wins but give me Tennessee and 6.
49ers at Rams: There are two sides to the debate on whether Jim Harbaugh should have benched Alex Smith. One side: It’s only Alex Smith. The other side: well, actually, there is no other side. Niners cover 7.
Panthers at Chiefs: If the Panthers (3-8) lose, it would make the home stretch stumble for the No. 1 pick interesting. Probably explains why the Chiefs (1-10) announced plans to wear Crocs. Carolina covers 3.
Eagles at Cowboys: Online headline: “Andy Reid to coach this week.” That would be a season first. Dallas covers 10.
The Eagles are dead. Like the parrot
•
TIME TO SETTLE UP
“If you ain’t just a little scared when you enter a casino, you are either very rich or you haven’t studied the games enough.” — VP Pappy
Last week: 10-1 straight up, 7-3-1 against the line.
Bottom dollars: 110-35 straight up, 85-58-2 against the line.
“Sack Schultz” update: This is it — the winner of the $5,000 Hawaii trip will be awarded this week. Our leader is “Wildone” of Kansas at 146 wins but 10 others are within five picks. I am not one of those 10.
Lilly Pick of the Week: Lilly (8-4) is on a five-game winning streak since her one-week furlough. This week, it was a choice between cheese-accessorized pictures of Uga and Nick Saban. Didn’t even look at Saban. Straight to Uga. Arf.
True story: Lilly swooped in on Uga's cheese so fast, I couldn't picture in time.
By Jeff Schultz
For previous episodes of Weekend predictions, click here.
For recent ramblings, take a look below
• Georgia’s best chance vs. Alabama may be to step on the gas
• SEC title would mean Georgia’s return to elite status
• Georgia playing at level we haven’t seen under Richt
• Short takes (UGA): Rambo’s ascent, Gurley’s comfort
• Upsetting Georgia would give Tech needed boost for future
• Weekend Predictions: Georgia will win on Red-and-Black-Saturday
• Vince Dooley: Joy from Georgia’s resurgence, pain from son’s firing
• Wonder why SEC is on top? Look at other conference finals
• Falcons win — but run before somebody changes their mind
• Georgia’s new reality: From on the brink to BCS title possibility
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440 comments Add your comment
Patched Tire On I-95 in Jacksonville
November 29th, 2012
2:03 pm
GT Fan
2012 Preseason #1 USC
2011 Preaseson #1 Oklahoma
If there is such a biased why not an SEC team being ranked #1 every year
Not For Long Network
November 29th, 2012
2:03 pm
For those who have digital cable but don’t have nfl network and don’t live in Atlanta area
Just subscribe to the sports package and get the nfl network immediately…they have a special deal going…I subscribed just for this game and will cancel afterwards
GT Fan
November 29th, 2012
2:06 pm
Discount DoulbeDawg …
The real reason Schlabach picked the Dawgs? His diploma is from the U of GA!
old dog
November 29th, 2012
2:09 pm
GTFan,
You said it for me…..Kansas Sate would have to play a middle of the road SEC team to win. they ain’t beatin’ S.Carolina, UGA, ‘Bama, or Florida. If they played Kentucky, Tennessee, or Auburn (which obviously they will not) or Vandy or maybe even Ole Miss, they would stand a chance. It’s not high and mighty to realize that your conference is better right now than others….it is factual. And, like any conference, we will have upper and lower-tier teams, even some that are terrible! But the top SEC teams (say the top five) cannot be matched by any other conferences top five!
Patched Tire On I-95 in Jacksonville
November 29th, 2012
2:10 pm
GT Fan
Wow I must be fooled easy cause the SEC is 8-0 in BCS title games
But you want to talk about biased
The Big 10 has more BCS bowl game appearances and thats because of the biased towards them
Yet
The SEC has the most BCS bowl game wins
The SEC has the most BCS National Titles
59bulldawg
November 29th, 2012
2:15 pm
Oh my Lord! Schultzee picked the Dawgs! We don’t have a prayer now! LOL!
GTBob
November 29th, 2012
2:17 pm
It’s not high and mighty to realize that your conference is better right now than others….it is factual.
Sorry, but assuming that Ole Miss and Vandy would destroy Kansas State isn’t factual, its ludicrous. Ole Miss got destroyed by Texas. Vandy got killed by Northwestern. To claim that Kansas State has no chance is just an obnoxious SEC fan puffing his chest out and hoping someone cares.
GT Fan
November 29th, 2012
2:19 pm
Is UGA playing on Saturday? Yes. And that’s why the Dawgs COULD win vs Bama.
My name is not why I think UGA won’t win.
….Manziel passed for 253 yards and rushed for 92, confounding the Tide defense with his ability to keep plays alive as the Aggies scored the game’s first 20 points….
I don’t think Murray has Maziel’s “ability to keep plays alive” I saw the BAMA – A&M game, as probably most UGA fans did. Johnny Football’s ability to keep plays alive was HUGE for the Aggies, as was the TO margin: A&M – 0 Bama – 3.
UGA will need Bama to commit 2+ killer TOs, and have Murray play Manziel-like.
If UGA goes into Sat. beating their chests over their wins vs. GT & AU, they’re going to be in for a rude awakening, IMO.
Eric C.
November 29th, 2012
2:21 pm
30 years of pent up frustration in the UGA football program will be unleashed on the Tide. If UA is really looking at this as a practice game for the ND game like their fans are, then they are in trouble.
Georgia Boy
November 29th, 2012
2:25 pm
UGA will not win, Alabama is not like of the schools on the UGA schedule. UGA bites
Eric C.
November 29th, 2012
2:25 pm
GT Fan… UGA has a better defense than Texas A&M
Patched Tire On I-95 in Jacksonville
November 29th, 2012
2:27 pm
GT Bob
True Vandy might not beat Kstate
But we all know no one in the ACC would even come close to beating them
old dog
November 29th, 2012
2:27 pm
@gtfAN,
WHAT? I AGREE WITH YOU?????? You are right…Johnny Football kept plays alive in that game unlike anything I have ever seen..period! There is but one of him. Murray will have to have his best game, but nobody is gonna have a game like J.Football did…it is doggone near impossible! Maybe with some turnovers, and possibly running the ball (our line is who has to show up…this is where the game will be won or lost) we can do it. The D has to strike early and often…hopefully Jarvis has a big day, which he usually does in a big game.
Good insight!
Eric C.
November 29th, 2012
2:27 pm
Georgia Boy… brilliant analysis
Eric C.
November 29th, 2012
2:30 pm
Yeah, no one is like Manziel. And how about Mettenberger? Mettenberger looked like Peyton Manning at times against the UA defense.
Pussel-Gut
November 29th, 2012
2:31 pm
Lookie here you nerds!!!! go chat with ken!!!
DawgDad
November 29th, 2012
2:38 pm
What a way to end November 2012. Dawgs in the SEC Championship with a BCS Championship berth at hand, Falcons positioned to knock out the Aints and claim a Division title, GT in a “Championship” game, the Hawks on a winning streak, and Wren signing a RIGHT-HANDED power-hitting outfielder in his prime! And to boot, the evil NHL continues to wallow in its own slime and self-destruct! It doesn’t get much better than this.
GT Fan
November 29th, 2012
2:38 pm
old dog
November 29th, 2012
1:34 pm
GTBob,
Kansas State, if they DO play an SEC team in a bowl game, will get torn up like a dollar-watch on the spin cycle!
—————————————-
old dog
November 29th, 2012
2:09 pm
GTFan,
You said it for me…..Kansas Sate would have to play a middle of the road SEC team to win.
——————————
Uh, old dog, I believe it was you who said K-St couldn’t beat any SEC team. Something about dollar watches and spin cycles??
Buckeye
November 29th, 2012
2:38 pm
Signs the apocalypse is upon is:
tom brown researching Division 2
GTBob
November 29th, 2012
2:39 pm
But we all know no one in the ACC would even come close to beating them
Yeah yeah. That is the other SEC fan argument. No team in the ACC has any chance of beating any team not in the ACC. We understand, thanks!
GT Joe
November 29th, 2012
2:49 pm
K State: #16 strength of schedule
UGA: #23
Buckeye
November 29th, 2012
2:50 pm
Good read. Mandel profiles mock 4 team playoff with this year’s field.
Notre Dame
Oregon
Alabama
Florida
First Team Out?
dogs
HA! How’s that for relevance?
Discount DoubleDawg
November 29th, 2012
2:55 pm
I don’t see ohio state either…
The awesome news for Dawg fans is that we don’t live in ‘hypothetical land’. We are actually playing in a game to decide who plays for the National Championship. Not ‘what if’ or ‘with the new system’…
.
Buckeye
November 29th, 2012
3:00 pm
discount,
whatev
No Ohio State? OMG!
Check the AP on Jan 2
Otis Spunkemeyer
November 29th, 2012
3:00 pm
Hey Suckeye thats because he is picking Ala to beat uga in seccg
old dog
November 29th, 2012
3:02 pm
Funny……what is Ohio State’s record against the SEC? 1-9?????????
GTFan….bowl eligible SEC teams. Getin’ smashed by Baylor (minus RGIII?) Yeah, we got smacked down by South Carolina, but they are a helluva lot better than Baylor! And also remember (have fun with this one, ya’ll) Spurrier coaches at South Carolina! Every time he yells “Boo” we freak…..no matter where he is coaching! Hope Tech never hires him……we would lose seven of the next ten as we quaked lookin’ at him on the sidelines…….Spurrier is our Achilles heel…..
Discount DoubleDawg
November 29th, 2012
3:02 pm
Is the AP relevant to anything?
After further review
November 29th, 2012
3:08 pm
Actually, buckeye, I’ve got Tommy Boy researching D3 schools. Even better. I do seem to be getting under his skin just a bit, however.
Buckeye
November 29th, 2012
3:10 pm
Otis,
So am I!
Buckeye
November 29th, 2012
3:12 pm
discount,
Been around since the 30’s. Ok then, let’s look at BCS records, shall we?
Buckeye
November 29th, 2012
3:13 pm
After further review,
New assignment for tom brown: Georgia AA Playoffs
Discount DoubleDawg
November 29th, 2012
3:15 pm
Again, is the AP relevant? Tell me how today it means anything. If you are holding your hopes and dreams on the AP this year I feel sorry for you.
Regarding the BCS- today UGA is #3 where is Ohio State.
That’s what I thought.
Rick James
November 29th, 2012
3:16 pm
@GTBob
Which would make you happiest? A Georgia loss to Alabama or a Tech win over FSU?
WDE
November 29th, 2012
3:22 pm
OSU gets in to the final AP one of two ways…they don’t play in a conference or bowl game (so they don’t lose) or two and this is the time honored tradition they cheat.
Rick James
November 29th, 2012
3:23 pm
@GT Joe
K State: #16 strength of schedule
UGA: #23
————————————————————–
Do you honestly think Kent St could have played Georgia’s schedule this season and gone 10-1? Why did you leave out Tech’s strength of schedule? Tech’s fan’s obssesion with Georgia football is amazing.I guess you’re already making an excuse if Tech backs into the Orange Bowl and losses to Kent St.
St Simons
November 29th, 2012
3:24 pm
Nope, appreciate the pandering to us local readers, Jeff, but you know it,
I know it, – death, taxes, Murray chokes (worst uga qb evah)
WDE
November 29th, 2012
3:24 pm
To all the Bama folks coming over for the game I hope you have a great and safe visit to our fair city except for the disappointment of losing the SEC title game to our Bull Dogs. Go Dogs !
ARdawg
November 29th, 2012
3:25 pm
“You know the “system” suck too, ARDawg. You just don’t want to admit it b/c your Dawgs are benefitting from this joke of a system. ”
GT fan
I’ll be the first to admit the system sucks but, it is all we have to date. BTW, the SEC and Georgia have been a victim of this same system much more than a benefactor. If this bad system were run by the SEC or SEC fans your position might warrant a modicum of merit but, it isn’t and you don’t
WDE
November 29th, 2012
3:25 pm
Look St Simons is back….yawn.
Rick James
November 29th, 2012
3:25 pm
@GTBob
Yeah yeah. That is the other SEC fan argument. No team in the ACC has any chance of beating any team not in the ACC. We understand, thanks!
——————————————————————————————————————————
Last weekend added a little fuel to that argument Bob..
Buckeye
November 29th, 2012
3:29 pm
discount,
Ohio State will be ahead of the dogs in final AP. You play the cards you’re dealt.
Rick James
November 29th, 2012
3:32 pm
@Buckeye
Ohio State will be ahead of the dogs in final AP. You play the cards you’re dealt.
———————————————————————————————————
That poll means about as much as GT Bob’s opinions..
Hmmmmm
November 29th, 2012
3:33 pm
UGA SOS = 42
ALA SOS = 39.
Don’t see a big diff there.
ND SOS = 30
ARdawg
November 29th, 2012
3:34 pm
Buckeye
November 29th, 2012
3:29 pm
discount,
Ohio State will be ahead of the dogs in final AP. You play the cards you’re dealt.
______________________________
I’ll be sure to remind you of this
GTBob
November 29th, 2012
3:34 pm
Which would make you happiest? A Georgia loss to Alabama or a Tech win over FSU?
A Tech win of course. Im looking forward to battling the Golden Flashes in the Orange Bowl.
Buckeye
November 29th, 2012
3:35 pm
discount,
I’m looking forward to watching Denard Robinson juke Rambo and “Dreds” Jones and leave little dog jock straps all over the Capital One field. In the meantime, we can play how much “Tubs” Jenks weighs. I say 410.
Discount DoubleDawg
November 29th, 2012
3:36 pm
I’ll take the cards I’m dealt where UGA can play for a National Championship and Ohio State can’t…
GTBob
November 29th, 2012
3:37 pm
Last weekend added a little fuel to that argument Bob..
Nah, last weekend was a typical outing for FSU and Clemson, the two most underachieving teams in college football.
GeorgeMason
November 29th, 2012
3:37 pm
No one is giving UGA any respect NATIONALLY and equally as unimpressive is that no one is giving the Falcons any respect at all. What I find amusing is that BOTH of those two teams are about to become champions–the Falcons winning the superbowl at the end of this season–and the Bulldogs winning the national championship against Notre Dame. Once that happens, then our local two football teams will garner all the respect they deserve. I have noticed that since this season started, the Falcons have been picked to lose every single game this season and they have won them all except for the Saints game, which they could have won had they not been conservative in the red zone. The Bulldogs are about to become national champions and every sportscaster is predicting Alabama will become SEC champions and play for the national championship. BOTH THE GEORGIA BULLDOGS AND THE ATLANTA FALCONS WILL BOTH SHED THEIR LACK OF RESPECT LABELS when both win their respective championships coming up in the next few weeks. Stay tuned!
Rick James
November 29th, 2012
3:38 pm
@GTBob
t is GREAT to be a Georgia Bulldog! Isn’t it GTBobby?
I wouldn’t know, and id rather kill myself than find out.
—————————————————————————–
You would rather kill yourself but you’re constantly amoung us.You’re either a Dawg fan,obssesed with Georgia football or mentality ill.