Predictions: Georgia pulls upset, Tech goes down
According to various websites that I looked through while doing research for this final week of investments — not counting those that kept asking for a credit card number, age verification and automatically opened 27 new windows (Close! Close! Dang it, close!) while my wife screamed down to the basement, “Are you still looking at point spreads!?” — I came across some interesting statistics.
The chances of winning Wednesday night’s $579 million Powerball drawing were approximately 1 in 176 million. That was still far more likely than the odds of having a meteor land on my house: 1 in 182,138,880,000,000. Or about double that for the same meteor landing on the ACC championship game and hitting somebody.
Is that a meteor falling on me, or Dogs going to BCS?
Other odds I came across: 1 in 3 million chance of spotting a UFO; 1 in 11,500 of bowling 300 in a game; 1 in 649,740 of being dealt a royal flush; 1 in 20 million of being canonized; about even-money that one of those Christmas bell-ringers in front of Kroger will spot Bobby Petrino and punch him in the face, and 99 out of 100 that the aforementioned bell-ringer will be canonized.
Which leads me to Saturday’s SEC championship game between Alabama and Georgia. The odds are against Georgia winning. I know this because I keep hearing analysts break down the Alabama-Notre Dame game like Georgia is a hologram.
Lord Saban, via Tigersx.com. (Not my art work, honest.)
Yes, Alabama is good. The Tide have won two of the past three national titles. People are scared when they just look at a picture of Nick Saban, although in fairness you can’t tell from the picture that he’s only 4-foot-2.
Here’s what I see: Georgia’s defense is playing really well. Aaron Murray is throwing to the correct receivers (also the correct team). Todd Gurley — freshman going on Athens mayor. The Bulldogs were smacked at South Carolina, but Alabama lost at home to Texas A&M. The Aggies scored touchdowns on their first three possessions with that crazy no-huddle thing that Saban fears will doom civilization.
Georgia has a shot. A good shot. In fact — wait, did somebody just see a meteor? — I’m going upset. Take the 7½ points, but Dogs win the SEC and move on to the BCS.
(Programming note: We’ll be back in a few weeks with a special bowl edition of “Weekend Predictions,” as well as a new “Sack Schultz” bowl contest. Details to come.)
It’s Hawaii or Bust! You contest video update
Undercard Events
(Look for expanded SEC and ACC game predictions in Saturday’s AJC.)
OK, I'll take some dish soap, paper plates, ACC tickets ...
ACC: Georgia Tech vs. FSU: John Swofford dreamed the other night that he was eaten by 12,000 tarantulas. Unfortunately, he woke up to the real nightmare of his deteriorating conference title game: Tech is coming off a loss to Georgia. FSU is coming off a loss to Florida. Tech (6-6) is only because Miami and North Carolina are in NCAA timeout. Need a ticket? It’s $4. A section? Still $4. Seminoles win but take Tech and 14.
Pac-12: UCLA: vs. Stanford: Jim Mora denies he intentionally lost last week’s game to Stanford to avoid a match-up with Oregon. I believe him. Only brilliant coaches could pull off something that devious. Same story in the rematch: Cardinal covers 9.
Big Ten: Nebraska vs. Wisconsin: Wisconsin is the Big Ten’s highest ranking ethical team in the Leaders Division at 4-4 and therefore is a conference finalist. So I guess the term “Leaders” is all relative to the Big Ten, huh? Huskers covers 2½.
What the ACC needs is a good promotion
* * * Internet-Only Special * * *
Saints at Falcons: The Saints are 5-6. If the playoffs opened today, they’d be in the Poinsettia bowl. This also will be Jonathan Vilma’s last game before the NFL bounty hearings, so if y’all could bring some cookies or maybe write a nice card for him to read during incarceration, that would be nice. Meanwhile, the Falcons are pretty banged up. But at 10-1, pain is all relative. Falcons cover 3½.
NFL Fridge Pack
The NFL's new simplified training regimen.
Seahawks at Bears: Forget Adderall suspensions. Chicago’s Brandon Marshall claims some players are seeking an edge with Viagra. Funny. I never looked at preseason games as foreplay before. Chicago covers 3½.
Texans at Titans: And then there’s the anti-Viagra: Ndamukong Suh’s foot somehow ended up in Matt Schaub’s groin. The good news: If Houston goes to the Super Bowl, Schaub can sing the national anthem. Houston wins but give me Tennessee and 6.
49ers at Rams: There are two sides to the debate on whether Jim Harbaugh should have benched Alex Smith. One side: It’s only Alex Smith. The other side: well, actually, there is no other side. Niners cover 7.
Panthers at Chiefs: If the Panthers (3-8) lose, it would make the home stretch stumble for the No. 1 pick interesting. Probably explains why the Chiefs (1-10) announced plans to wear Crocs. Carolina covers 3.
Eagles at Cowboys: Online headline: “Andy Reid to coach this week.” That would be a season first. Dallas covers 10.
The Eagles are dead. Like the parrot
•
TIME TO SETTLE UP
“If you ain’t just a little scared when you enter a casino, you are either very rich or you haven’t studied the games enough.” — VP Pappy
Last week: 10-1 straight up, 7-3-1 against the line.
Bottom dollars: 110-35 straight up, 85-58-2 against the line.
“Sack Schultz” update: This is it — the winner of the $5,000 Hawaii trip will be awarded this week. Our leader is “Wildone” of Kansas at 146 wins but 10 others are within five picks. I am not one of those 10.
Lilly Pick of the Week: Lilly (8-4) is on a five-game winning streak since her one-week furlough. This week, it was a choice between cheese-accessorized pictures of Uga and Nick Saban. Didn’t even look at Saban. Straight to Uga. Arf.
True story: Lilly swooped in on Uga's cheese so fast, I couldn't picture in time.
By Jeff Schultz
For previous episodes of Weekend predictions, click here.
For recent ramblings, take a look below
• Georgia’s best chance vs. Alabama may be to step on the gas
• SEC title would mean Georgia’s return to elite status
• Georgia playing at level we haven’t seen under Richt
• Short takes (UGA): Rambo’s ascent, Gurley’s comfort
• Upsetting Georgia would give Tech needed boost for future
• Weekend Predictions: Georgia will win on Red-and-Black-Saturday
• Vince Dooley: Joy from Georgia’s resurgence, pain from son’s firing
• Wonder why SEC is on top? Look at other conference finals
• Falcons win — but run before somebody changes their mind
• Georgia’s new reality: From on the brink to BCS title possibility
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440 comments Add your comment
In Case You Forgot
November 29th, 2012
12:58 pm
UCF 10
UGA 6
LOLOLOLOLOL!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
GT Fan
November 29th, 2012
1:01 pm
Crack pipe, WDE? Seems you might be the one who is impaired. According to you when a team beats another it’s b/c they “beat the hell out them”
Truth hurts, I know…but UGA ain’t worthy of a #3 ranking.
ARdawg
November 29th, 2012
1:02 pm
It is GREAT to be a Georgia Bulldog! Isn’t it GTBobby?
GTBob
November 29th, 2012
1:04 pm
Oregon and Kansas State were overated…..they did not play anybody. A bad SEC team, save Kentucky or Auburn (this year) will whoop-up on some of these boys.
If anyone wanted a clear cut reason for why everyone outside of SEC country hates SEC fans, here ya go. Ignorance and arrogance is always a solid package.
Thomas Brown
November 29th, 2012
1:04 pm
Well we beat 1 of the 2 teams in the ACC CHUMPionship Game last week by 42-10. Isn’t that worth # 3 ?
Oh, no ?
ARdawg
November 29th, 2012
1:04 pm
“Truth hurts, I know…but UGA ain’t worthy of a #3 ranking.”
________________________
GT fan, try telling that to the voters and the BCS. Your jealousy is unbecoming
GTBob
November 29th, 2012
1:05 pm
It is GREAT to be a Georgia Bulldog! Isn’t it GTBobby?
I wouldn’t know, and id rather kill myself than find out.
GT Fan
November 29th, 2012
1:05 pm
To the dyslexics who keep saying 5-7 AZ …. The Wildcats are 7-5.
Thomas Brown
November 29th, 2012
1:05 pm
When are you going to name the team Oregon beat 2012, that you think UGA could not have beat ?
Truth
November 29th, 2012
1:07 pm
I think we should all have an icon next to our name showing if we have a degree or not, and if so, from what institution.
ARdawg
November 29th, 2012
1:08 pm
GTBob
Kill yourself Bobby? A bit extreme dont’cha think? If your grade point average was a bit lower and your personality a bit better you could have been one of us Bob.
After further review
November 29th, 2012
1:09 pm
Thomas Brown
November 29th, 2012
12:44 pm
After further review, really guy, are you impaired in some fashion son that isn’t obvious ? I went to NCAA site, gave you the URL Link to records of teams UGA plays including day after tomorrow since it’s a known game, and you come back like you have everything else ever with BS about some other record of the opponents we’ve played. Damn son. You expect to carry on a conversation like that ?
LinkReport this comment.Thomas Brown
November 29th, 2012
12:47 pm
______________________________________________________________
Division III football North Central College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin.
______________________________________________________________
After Further Review says THIS is his team.”
Two more glaring lies, Thomas.
The W-L records of UGA’s opponents this year came straight from Tueseday’s AJC sports pages. I suppose they made them up? Did I list the wrong opponents?
I said my alma mater plays in D3, not that it was either of the teams you show here.
Get your facts straight for a change.
Thomas Brown
November 29th, 2012
1:10 pm
go ahead dim-wit, who is your damn team then ?
leave us all sitting here on pins and needles for who your damn team is
Thomas Brown
November 29th, 2012
1:14 pm
North Central College, a division III team, is in the Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin. It is my understanding that is the name of the conference, not 2 teams. God son, you must have a IQ of 88.
North Central College who lost last week like your team did you said, had won its conference title 3 years’ running – like you said your team did. And, they have the same record 2012 as your team, according to you.
But, knowing you spending your days here talking about me, that’s all just lies now.
You see ?
I did NOT see another Division III team other than North Central College with the record you claim for your team 2012, who has won 3 titles for their conference 3 years’ running.
Boo Boo
November 29th, 2012
1:14 pm
I heard GaTech is already down 14 to FSU and the game is still two days away. Paul Johnson is preparing another press note about yet another lack of effort. I think Tech should petition the NCAA to allow them to forfiet the ACC Championship game, then move to Division I-AA. Forget the search for a new AD. Use the money to repair the nuclear reactor on campus. They could develop a football rivalry with Ga Southern and Furman, while rekindling their old SEC relationship with Tulane. That way Tech will get to screw UGA every year, not just once every 12 years, by annually not giving the Bulldogs the appearance of having beaten a Div. I-A team. Stop playing them!
Discount DoubleDawg
November 29th, 2012
1:14 pm
The reason people hate SEC fans is because of envy and insecurity. It makes people very uncomfortable. You can say it’s other things because that’s what people who are envious and insecure do. They name-call and look at the lunatic fringe of the fan base to make judgements.
I am a Georgia fan and the only reason I pull for the SEC is because it can help Georgia. That’s it. I also know that everything goes in cycles and this run for the SEC is likely on it’s last legs. That’s ok though… not really a big deal at all either way. The SEC is strong right now (probably the strongest) and some people just don’t like it. In fact, unless you are an SEC fan why would you?
GT Fan
November 29th, 2012
1:15 pm
It’s called $$ & ratings ARdawg.
When you (BCS/ESPN/Voters) have control of the system you can do what you want. They tell everybody what to think/believe, and then maximize their $ off of your delusion.
Voters? That’s a huge problem, sir. When you get people voting on who should play for the title, many times they’ll get it wrong. If the NFL had a poll system, would the Giants & Packers have won the past 2 super bowls?
WDE
November 29th, 2012
1:20 pm
GT Fan we beat hell out of UF and the number of gators carted off the field is proof of that….not as bad as we beat the Bugs or are you saying we didn’t beat hell out of Bug U last week?
GT Joe
November 29th, 2012
1:20 pm
Oregon: #8 strength of schedule
UGa: #23
GTBob
November 29th, 2012
1:20 pm
The reason people hate SEC fans is because of envy and insecurity. It makes people very uncomfortable.
Nah, when fans of SEC teams claim that every team in the SEC except for Auburn and Kentucky would destroy Oregon, it doesn’t look good on your fan base. Its not envy. It is a mixture of annoyance and sympathy.
Wutehvah
November 29th, 2012
1:21 pm
Let’s go clock… Ready for game time!! Anyone already there and posting from their RV??
After further review
November 29th, 2012
1:22 pm
” Thomas Brown
November 29th, 2012
1:14 pm
North Central College, a division III team, is in the Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin. It is my understanding that is the name of the conference, not 2 teams. God son, you must have a IQ of 88.
North Central College who lost last week like your team did you said, had won its conference title 3 years’ running – like you said your team did. And, they have the same record 2012 as your team, according to you.
But, knowing you spending your days here talking about me, that’s all just lies now.
You see ?
I did NOT see another Division III team other than North Central College with the record you claim for your team 2012, who has won 3 titles for their conference 3 years’ running.”
Then you didn’t look closely enough, and that only addresses one of your blantant mis-statewments. Care to comment on the accuracy of my figures for the teams Georgia has played so far? Didn’t think so.
Discount DoubleDawg
November 29th, 2012
1:22 pm
I forgot to mention denial
GT Joe
November 29th, 2012
1:24 pm
Thomas Brown: how bout you list all the wins and losses for North Central College for the past 8 years, with the records of each team? We LOVE those kids of posts. Please, don’t paraphrase. Be as verbose as possible.
ARdawg
November 29th, 2012
1:26 pm
GT fan
Ahh, so it’s a conspiracy now? How’s that tinfoil hat fitting? Voting is the system we have good, bad or indifferent makes no difference. It’s the same system for every school
Bad Dawg, Bad Dawg
November 29th, 2012
1:27 pm
JS you’re about to be sacked. Hold onto those glasses. Now for some facts. The coach on the other side has 3 rings, the one from Athens 0. The coach from the other side has actually played some teams this year, the one from Athens has played two. Humiliated by one and the other beat themselves. The FBS opponents winning percentage against the one from Athens was less than 40%. The one from Athens has been tuning up against the triple option for 2 weeks. Remember LSU last year, remember Michigan State last win, remember Central Florida the year before? My money is on the elephant in the room (Dome)!
ARdawg
November 29th, 2012
1:29 pm
“Boo Boo
November 29th, 2012
1:14 pm
I heard GaTech is already down 14 to FSU and the game is still two days away. Paul Johnson is preparing another press note about yet another lack of effort. I think Tech should petition the NCAA to allow them to forfiet the ACC Championship game, then move to Division I-AA. Forget the search for a new AD. Use the money to repair the nuclear reactor on campus. They could develop a football rivalry with Ga Southern and Furman, while rekindling their old SEC relationship with Tulane. That way Tech will get to screw UGA every year, not just once every 12 years, by annually not giving the Bulldogs the appearance of having beaten a Div. I-A team. Stop playing them!”
_______________________
That’s just demm funny right there!
Rooster
November 29th, 2012
1:29 pm
Georgia gets spanked 32-7!!!!!!
GT Fan
November 29th, 2012
1:31 pm
Aww, not you again, Patched Tire! Dang, son go get another box of tissue!
My topic isn’t about GT. I know the Jackets stink. Believe me, I’ve watched every game this season, their D is as bad a I can remember, and I’ve been a fan for 40 years. UGA scoring 40+ is nothing new. In fact, there were 3 other teams that score MORE than UGA did (MTSU, Clemson, and UNC).
Maybe those 3 would be UGA. I mean, they did score more on GT than the Dawgs did?
My topic is that b/c of the BCS/ESPN/Voters UGA is #3, not b/c UGA is better than any team in the BCS top 10. I’ve presented a strong argument to show that. But, like I’ve said to other GT fans on this blog, you really can’t argue with a delusional SEC homer.
GT Joe
November 29th, 2012
1:31 pm
One reason I hate SEC fans: generally low IQ people. Have nothing to hang their hat on but football. And most never went to college.
But other than that, nice folks!
Discount DoubleDawg
November 29th, 2012
1:33 pm
Gtbob- you don’t really want to go there… that is, referencing posts of others on these blogs to judge a fan base. I won’t do the work for you but if you are interested go back and read all the tech troll comments before last weeks game. If we are going to go by that then tech is no better, if not worse, than any SEC fan.
old dog
November 29th, 2012
1:34 pm
GTBob,
Kansas State, if they DO play an SEC team in a bowl game, will get torn up like a dollar-watch on the spin cycle! I understand though…..if I was as bad as ya’ll, I’d try to get the heat off of me, too, by doggin’ out others. Ya’ll do not have the D-talent to stop girls in a flag-football game, and CPJ recruiting good D-players would be comparable to the klan recruiting Al Sharpton as the grand wizard……….(the klan would have better luck, by the way, judging from your showing this year.) I wish Tech better luck, but you are battin’ zero…..ain’t helpin’ Tech or yourself….just spoutin’ nonsense ‘coz you got nothing eles to talk about. ACC championship game? How much are they payin’ folks around town to show up?
After further review
November 29th, 2012
1:35 pm
“Thomas Brown
November 29th, 2012
1:10 pm
go ahead dim-wit, who is your damn team then ?
leave us all sitting here on pins and needles for who your damn team is”
“But, knowing you spending your days here talking about me, that’s all just lies now.
You see ?”
Getting a bit testy are you, Tommy?
GT Fan
November 29th, 2012
1:38 pm
You know the “system” suck too, ARDawg. You just don’t want to admit it b/c your Dawgs are benefitting from this joke of a system.
UGA fans, if they really have a good sports-eye, know that UGA being #3 is like arguing that you’re the tallest midget, or skinniest fat guy.
UGA’s body-of-work, when compared to the rest of Top 10 is at the bottom. I’ve already shown that, but again, you can’t argue with a delusional SEC homer.
GT Fan
November 29th, 2012
1:42 pm
Exactly, GT Joe.
And this is what makes it so great for “the System (i.e. ESPN/BCS/Voters)”
These low IQ people are the “some of the people you can fool ALL OF THE TIME”
Just look at how many of them have been bragging out paying $300 or more for tix to the SEC title game. Do they not have TVs?
GTBob
November 29th, 2012
1:44 pm
Gtbob- you don’t really want to go there… that is, referencing posts of others on these blogs to judge a fan base.
You are right, I probably shouldn’t. But you have to admit that SEC fans in general are pretty obnoxious about their recent success. Even the fans that didn’t have anything to do with the success. You would think they would be somewhat humble about it but no, they actually exaggerate it and claim that the worst teams in the SEC would beat the best teams in the rest of the country.
GATiger
November 29th, 2012
1:46 pm
Homer-ism at its best. The Dawgs haven’t faced a defense even close to Bama’s – and that includes UF. Tide 34 – Dawg 10.
GT Fan
November 29th, 2012
1:47 pm
old dog
November 29th, 2012
1:34 pm
GTBob,
Kansas State, if they DO play an SEC team in a bowl game, will get torn up like a dollar-watch on the spin cycle!
—————————————-
And if K-St plays an SEC other than Bama, LSU or UF and beats them, old dog will be back saying, “well, K-St didn’t play Bama, LSU or UF …. SEC, SEC, SEC!”
old dog
November 29th, 2012
1:47 pm
GTFan,
If you have any intelligence at all, (and apparantly you are suffering from a little “intellectual-slothfulness”) you could watch ANY game and realize that Kansas State (for example) is a team that beneffitted from the system. Lets see how the bol games turn out….get back to everybody then.
Patched Tire On I-95 in Jacksonville
November 29th, 2012
1:48 pm
GT Fan
Its not a delusional SEC homer or some biased towards the SEC; you seem to forget there has been more of a biased toward the Big 10 and Notre Dame than there ever has been for the SEC
Obviously you forgot about ESPN wanting another rematch of Ohio St Michigan in the national title instead Michigan lost again so that allowed FL to go. Then they claimed FL had no chance against a mighty Big 10 team
You seem to forget everyone saying the SEC will not make it to this years National Title
You seem to forget USC was considered the favorite to win the National Title
You have presented no facts
Here are the facts you SEC hater
the SEC has won every BCS National Title
The SEC has won more National Titles since 1960
The SEC has won more bowl games than any conference since 1960
The SEC has won more bowl games than any conference since 2000
The SEC puts more players in the NFL year after year
Its not being a homer its call RESPECT people give respect to the SEC even though they hate it
Baddabing
November 29th, 2012
1:48 pm
Jeff – Are you vying for a gig at the Punch Line? Combining sports and comedy is a brilliant career move especially for someone who obviously just had a space rock bounce off their head. The odds of GA beating AL are not quite as good as winning the powerball lottery. Roll Tide!!
GTBob
November 29th, 2012
1:49 pm
Kansas State, if they DO play an SEC team in a bowl game, will get torn up like a dollar-watch on the spin cycle!
Based on what? Aside from your own bias that prevents you from accepting that there may be some decent team out there that doesn’t have an SEC logo on their jersey.
Patched Tire On I-95 in Jacksonville
November 29th, 2012
1:50 pm
obviously GT Fan the only one with the low IQ is you
GT Fan
November 29th, 2012
1:51 pm
GA Tiger …. haven’t you been watching UGA?!? They are an UNSTOPPABLE roll, dude!
Six UF’s 6-TO debacle UGA has destroyed 4 NCAA juggernauts: Ole Miss, Auburn, Ga Southern, and GT.
As impressive a run in NCAA football there has ever been! BAMA’s got NO shot, I mean NO SHOT at beating UGA on Saturday. Don’t believe me? Just ask Schultz’s dog.
GTBob
November 29th, 2012
1:53 pm
Obviously you forgot about ESPN wanting another rematch of Ohio St Michigan in the national title instead Michigan lost again so that allowed FL to go.
You should check your history.
GT Fan
November 29th, 2012
1:54 pm
Patched Tired = one of the … “some of the people you can fool all of the time”
Old dog, you know I right. If K-St beats an SEC not named BAMA, LSU, or UF in a bowl game you will be touting that they play “the real SEC”.
Discount DoubleDawg
November 29th, 2012
1:56 pm
Gtbob- name one consistently winning team whose fan base doesn’t become a little over-confident. It could be Tech, UGA, or Saint Mary’s school for the blind… Teams that win usually produce very confident and yes sometimes obnoxious fans. Add the lunatic fringe, alcohol, and blogs where anyone can be a tough guy and you have a recipe for things to get out of control. Most fans actions are a product of their team.
ATL SAINTS
November 29th, 2012
1:57 pm
WHO DAT!?! and GOO JACKETS!
Steve
November 29th, 2012
2:00 pm
AWESOME post “ATL SAINTS!” What a loser.
Discount DoubleDawg
November 29th, 2012
2:01 pm
Schlabach- on why he picked the dawgs as an upset over bama (he is 9-3 with upset picks this year)
“I think Georgia’s playing with a lot of momentum and energy and an edge on defense. Georgia’s more experienced, outside of the offensive line, especially on defense. Bama had to have a last-second TD to beat LSU and then lost to Texas A&M. This team isn’t as dominant as last year’s. You can throw the ball on them; there’s isn’t a great pass rusher and safeties are suspect in coverage. Whoever takes care of the ball wins. “