Predictions: Georgia pulls upset, Tech goes down
According to various websites that I looked through while doing research for this final week of investments — not counting those that kept asking for a credit card number, age verification and automatically opened 27 new windows (Close! Close! Dang it, close!) while my wife screamed down to the basement, “Are you still looking at point spreads!?” — I came across some interesting statistics.
The chances of winning Wednesday night’s $579 million Powerball drawing were approximately 1 in 176 million. That was still far more likely than the odds of having a meteor land on my house: 1 in 182,138,880,000,000. Or about double that for the same meteor landing on the ACC championship game and hitting somebody.
Is that a meteor falling on me, or Dogs going to BCS?
Other odds I came across: 1 in 3 million chance of spotting a UFO; 1 in 11,500 of bowling 300 in a game; 1 in 649,740 of being dealt a royal flush; 1 in 20 million of being canonized; about even-money that one of those Christmas bell-ringers in front of Kroger will spot Bobby Petrino and punch him in the face, and 99 out of 100 that the aforementioned bell-ringer will be canonized.
Which leads me to Saturday’s SEC championship game between Alabama and Georgia. The odds are against Georgia winning. I know this because I keep hearing analysts break down the Alabama-Notre Dame game like Georgia is a hologram.
Lord Saban, via Tigersx.com. (Not my art work, honest.)
Yes, Alabama is good. The Tide have won two of the past three national titles. People are scared when they just look at a picture of Nick Saban, although in fairness you can’t tell from the picture that he’s only 4-foot-2.
Here’s what I see: Georgia’s defense is playing really well. Aaron Murray is throwing to the correct receivers (also the correct team). Todd Gurley — freshman going on Athens mayor. The Bulldogs were smacked at South Carolina, but Alabama lost at home to Texas A&M. The Aggies scored touchdowns on their first three possessions with that crazy no-huddle thing that Saban fears will doom civilization.
Georgia has a shot. A good shot. In fact — wait, did somebody just see a meteor? — I’m going upset. Take the 7½ points, but Dogs win the SEC and move on to the BCS.
(Programming note: We’ll be back in a few weeks with a special bowl edition of “Weekend Predictions,” as well as a new “Sack Schultz” bowl contest. Details to come.)
It’s Hawaii or Bust! You contest video update
Undercard Events
(Look for expanded SEC and ACC game predictions in Saturday’s AJC.)
OK, I'll take some dish soap, paper plates, ACC tickets ...
ACC: Georgia Tech vs. FSU: John Swofford dreamed the other night that he was eaten by 12,000 tarantulas. Unfortunately, he woke up to the real nightmare of his deteriorating conference title game: Tech is coming off a loss to Georgia. FSU is coming off a loss to Florida. Tech (6-6) is only because Miami and North Carolina are in NCAA timeout. Need a ticket? It’s $4. A section? Still $4. Seminoles win but take Tech and 14.
Pac-12: UCLA: vs. Stanford: Jim Mora denies he intentionally lost last week’s game to Stanford to avoid a match-up with Oregon. I believe him. Only brilliant coaches could pull off something that devious. Same story in the rematch: Cardinal covers 9.
Big Ten: Nebraska vs. Wisconsin: Wisconsin is the Big Ten’s highest ranking ethical team in the Leaders Division at 4-4 and therefore is a conference finalist. So I guess the term “Leaders” is all relative to the Big Ten, huh? Huskers covers 2½.
What the ACC needs is a good promotion
* * * Internet-Only Special * * *
Saints at Falcons: The Saints are 5-6. If the playoffs opened today, they’d be in the Poinsettia bowl. This also will be Jonathan Vilma’s last game before the NFL bounty hearings, so if y’all could bring some cookies or maybe write a nice card for him to read during incarceration, that would be nice. Meanwhile, the Falcons are pretty banged up. But at 10-1, pain is all relative. Falcons cover 3½.
NFL Fridge Pack
The NFL's new simplified training regimen.
Seahawks at Bears: Forget Adderall suspensions. Chicago’s Brandon Marshall claims some players are seeking an edge with Viagra. Funny. I never looked at preseason games as foreplay before. Chicago covers 3½.
Texans at Titans: And then there’s the anti-Viagra: Ndamukong Suh’s foot somehow ended up in Matt Schaub’s groin. The good news: If Houston goes to the Super Bowl, Schaub can sing the national anthem. Houston wins but give me Tennessee and 6.
49ers at Rams: There are two sides to the debate on whether Jim Harbaugh should have benched Alex Smith. One side: It’s only Alex Smith. The other side: well, actually, there is no other side. Niners cover 7.
Panthers at Chiefs: If the Panthers (3-8) lose, it would make the home stretch stumble for the No. 1 pick interesting. Probably explains why the Chiefs (1-10) announced plans to wear Crocs. Carolina covers 3.
Eagles at Cowboys: Online headline: “Andy Reid to coach this week.” That would be a season first. Dallas covers 10.
The Eagles are dead. Like the parrot
•
TIME TO SETTLE UP
“If you ain’t just a little scared when you enter a casino, you are either very rich or you haven’t studied the games enough.” — VP Pappy
Last week: 10-1 straight up, 7-3-1 against the line.
Bottom dollars: 110-35 straight up, 85-58-2 against the line.
“Sack Schultz” update: This is it — the winner of the $5,000 Hawaii trip will be awarded this week. Our leader is “Wildone” of Kansas at 146 wins but 10 others are within five picks. I am not one of those 10.
Lilly Pick of the Week: Lilly (8-4) is on a five-game winning streak since her one-week furlough. This week, it was a choice between cheese-accessorized pictures of Uga and Nick Saban. Didn’t even look at Saban. Straight to Uga. Arf.
True story: Lilly swooped in on Uga's cheese so fast, I couldn't picture in time.
By Jeff Schultz
For previous episodes of Weekend predictions, click here.
For recent ramblings, take a look below
• Georgia’s best chance vs. Alabama may be to step on the gas
• SEC title would mean Georgia’s return to elite status
• Georgia playing at level we haven’t seen under Richt
• Short takes (UGA): Rambo’s ascent, Gurley’s comfort
• Upsetting Georgia would give Tech needed boost for future
• Weekend Predictions: Georgia will win on Red-and-Black-Saturday
• Vince Dooley: Joy from Georgia’s resurgence, pain from son’s firing
• Wonder why SEC is on top? Look at other conference finals
• Falcons win — but run before somebody changes their mind
• Georgia’s new reality: From on the brink to BCS title possibility
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440 comments Add your comment
Thomas Brown
November 29th, 2012
12:01 pm
Walter,
sir.
We WON all those games you’re talking about.
Excuse me for pointing that out.
Discount DoubleDawg
November 29th, 2012
12:01 pm
Oregon, or really any other high profile team from another conference, has given me no reason to believe otherwise.
Can it happen? sure
Is it likely given recent SEC football history? nope
wesley amick
November 29th, 2012
12:02 pm
Really!!!!! Can you say something negative about the ACC just one more time. I don’t have to buy your stiniking paper.
Flo-Ri-Duh
November 29th, 2012
12:03 pm
You have to take in to account that UGA will win the turnover battle and 90% of the time winning the turnover battle in big games wins the game. As in A&M won the turnover battle vs Bummer. Evn though UGA turned it over 3 times early against Florida their defense did not panic and held up and eventually UGA won the turnover battle.
GTBob
November 29th, 2012
12:04 pm
GTBob, Michigan had a tougher schedule you say ? Well, they BEAT NO ONE.
I didn’t say that Michigan has beaten anyone, I said they played a tougher schedule. You really don’t know the difference in those two concepts? And why are you harping on about future NFL picks. Having more future NFL players doesn’t mean that UGA has played good defense this season.
After further review
November 29th, 2012
12:04 pm
Thomas –
So I went to a D3 school that lost in the second round of the playoff. Does that diminish the accomplishment of 3 straight confernce championships and five in six years? When did your Bulldogs have a run like that? At leasst I’m not claiming six national championships when the record on neutral, not Bulldog-biased web sites show, at most two.
You say not that there are seven bowl teams on your schedule, including Georgia Tech (who mary or may not play a bowl, Alabama, and your bowl opponent. That’s not what you said in your first popst, but lets go with it at the moment. You also stated six of those teams would win their bowl games, and that includes you. You do realize that you’ve just stated Georgia Tech will win their bowl game, right? See if you cna follow this: if six of the seven bowl opponents (including the opponent in your actual bowl game) win, only one can lose,. Since you are assumng the your team will win, that means the only team of those seven you are expecting to lose their bowl is your bowl opponent, so Tech will win their bowl. Is that your prediction, or is your math still fuzzy?
Flo-Ri-Duh
November 29th, 2012
12:05 pm
WHO cares about Oregon? They lost and are irrelevant at this point.
Thomas Brown
November 29th, 2012
12:05 pm
Oregon’s wins 2012 :
5-7 Arizona
3-9 Washington State
7-5 Washington
7-5 Arizona State
1-11 Colorado
7-5 Southern California
3-9 California
8-3 Oregon State # 16 – only win who is ranked in any poll
___________________________________________________________
8-4 Michigan.
Alabama beat them 41-14.
8 Wins by Michigan 2012 season over :
6-6 Air Force
1-11 Massachusetts
6-6 Purdue
2-10 Illinois
6-6 Michigan State
6-6 Minnesota
9-3 Northwestern at Home for Michigan in the big house
4-8 Iowa
That is the sum total of the wins by Michigan and Oregon.
They’re better than us at something ?
B.S.
GTBob
November 29th, 2012
12:06 pm
Is it likely given recent SEC football history? nope
So Oregon has 100% absolutely zero chance to beat a team that almost lost to La Lafayette?
GTBob
November 29th, 2012
12:07 pm
WHO cares about Oregon? They lost and are irrelevant at this point.
UGA fans who desperately want to convince everyone that they are better than Oregon when no one actually believes they are.
Thomas Brown
November 29th, 2012
12:07 pm
“At leasst I’m not claiming six national championships when the record on neutral, not Bulldog-biased web sites show, at most two.”
You are a revisionist.
http://www.nationalchamps.net/NCAA/database/georgia_database.htm
This is another URL Link to yet another site showing 6 NC for UGA. This is a netral , non-Bulldog-based Web site that tracks national championships.
Alphare
November 29th, 2012
12:10 pm
Thomas Brown,
I know you didn’t copy anybody’s work. That’s the problem.
Thomas Brown
November 29th, 2012
12:11 pm
5-7 Arizona
3-9 Washington State
7-5 Washington
7-5 Arizona State
1-11 Colorado
7-5 Southern California
3-9 California
8-3 Oregon State # 16 – only win who is ranked in any poll
If you truly believe that UGA cannot beat these teams, who are all Oregon beat, you’re out of your mind.
Flo-Ri-Duh
November 29th, 2012
12:12 pm
You just don’t understand the difference between trash talk and confidence…… Dawgs know they are going to win. They FEEL it. Bummer,on the other hand, still remembers getting their butts kicked on national T V by Johnny Football – just as I predicted on this blog. Dawgs are peaking at the right time and Bummer just lost to Johnny Football and struggled against a LSU team with a QB named Mettenbubba.
AJC Senor Management
November 29th, 2012
12:12 pm
You’re a good sports journalist Jeff and many appreciate your going out on a limb for the UGA Pups. I have a good feeling about the Dogs and, to my mind, a win revolves around how the O-Line handles Bama’s defensive front. UGA’s defense handles AJ. Give Murray time and this will be a close game, otherwise, it will get “SC-ugly.”
I’m all-in for UGA at 21-17. Yes, they cover the 7.5 point spread.
We in AJC Senor Management (no that’s not a typo…), too, have a special feeling about UGA this weekend although it revolves more around how much money the fans will spend in Atlanta. But we digress.
Again, thanks for your support and, no, this doesn’t earn you a raise. Please quit begging – grovelling does not look good on you.
Thomas Brown
November 29th, 2012
12:12 pm
Try talking football Alphare. That’s what the rest of us are doing, except for just only you, son.
Thomas Brown
November 29th, 2012
12:15 pm
I am still waiting on which ones of these great 2012 wins by Oregon, UGA would not have won too ?
Alphare
November 29th, 2012
12:16 pm
Thomas Brown,
you are helpless. Don’t think you will ever get your UGA paper, as easy as it is.
Flo-Ri-Duh
November 29th, 2012
12:16 pm
GT bug – You are wrong! The BCS computer and the voters think UGA is better than Oregon. UGA has a defense and defense wins the big games. Oregon has NO defense.
GTBob
November 29th, 2012
12:16 pm
Dawgs are peaking at the right time and Bummer just lost to Johnny Football and struggled against a LSU team with a QB named Mettenbubba
Peaking? They haven’t played even a decent team in over a month.
ERMAHGERD GERGER BERDERGS
November 29th, 2012
12:17 pm
UGAg by 10? Bollocks! I say the pups win by 100!
You see, georgia has a winning tradition. You cannot say the same about Alabama. The Dwags have been playing in national championships year in and year out while the red tide has been sitting at home in January. Clearly georgia’s tough schedule has prepared them to lay a beatdown on the much inferior elephants.
GTBob
November 29th, 2012
12:18 pm
GT bug – You are wrong! The BCS computer and the voters think UGA is better than Oregon.
The voters think Oregon lost more recently than UGA therefore UGA is ranked higher. It has nothing to do with who they think is actually the better team. If UGA played Oregon on a neutral field do you really think UGA would be favored in Vegas?
After further review
November 29th, 2012
12:19 pm
“And, our schedule of opponents 2012 including the game day after tomorrow of JUST 1-A FBS teams is 61-59, not whatever lies you keep repeating it is.”
The record of teams you have already played is 71-71. Take out the FCS school (Georgia Southern at 8-3), and your FBS opponents played so far are 63-68. To make it easy for you the records are: Buffalo 4-8, Fl-Atl. 3-8, Tech (6-6), Missouri 5-7, Vanderbilt 8-4, Tennesee 5-7, South Carolina 10-2, Kentucky 2-10, Florida 11-1, Mississippi 6-6, and Auburn 3-9. Add Alabama (11-1) and it will be 74-69. The only other member of the BCS top five with a weaker schedule, based on the W-L recoreds of their opponents is Alabama. Delude yourself all you want, but those are the FACTS.
Flo-Ri-Duh
November 29th, 2012
12:19 pm
When is GT going to get a division I football head coach? No reason why GT shouldn’t be ranked in the top 20 every year with all this talent in Georgia. UGA can only take an average of 25 year. That leaves about 200 for GT. Face it – Paul Johnson can’t recruit.
Flo-Ri-Duh
November 29th, 2012
12:25 pm
Yes I am pretty sure that Vegas would take UGA, Bummer, LSU, S.C, Florida, Texas A&M over Oregon. Why? SEC defense beats Oregon offense 80% of the time according to Vegas.
Flo-Ri-Duh
November 29th, 2012
12:26 pm
ACC – Almost College Conference
WDE
November 29th, 2012
12:28 pm
GT Fan put down the crack pipe UGA beat the tar out of a no.2 rated UF squad that had beat hell out of LSU , LSU if you remember beat hell out of Washington that beat hell out of mighty Stanford that beat hell out of USC and Oregon….put your pipe around that and smoke that…oh yeah and we completely smashed Bug U even the Hulk couldn’t smash any better than we did just last week.
GTBob
November 29th, 2012
12:29 pm
SEC defense beats Oregon offense 80% of the time according to Vegas.
So according to Vegas Kentucky would destroy Oregon, right?
SEC Headlines 11/29/2012
November 29th, 2012
12:30 pm
[...] 27. This prediction has the Bulldogs pulling the upset. [...]
Patched Tire On I-95 in Jacksonville
November 29th, 2012
12:30 pm
Thomas Brown
You give all the these stats to say Richt has turned things around
If he loses Saturday; he hasnt turned things around; he yet again will have lost another big game; lost to another top 10 team and will have only beaten 1 top 20 team in 4 years
I said before the season started UGA should be 12-0 and anything other than 11-1 is an utter failure by this coaching staff; it really doesnt take a bright person to see that with the talent and schedule we had this year
So until we win Saturday weve done nothing but beat 1 good team in 5 yrs
Like Ive argued for years with all the others who claim we are so great blah blah blah garbage we havent done anything; this is Georgia’s biggest game since 1982; FL TENN AL, LSU and AUB have had plenty of bigger games and won them from 92 to the present
Alphare
November 29th, 2012
12:31 pm
Flo-Ri-Duh,
I for one agree SEC is great. But to trash OR is insane.
The problem for OR is, they lost their sole game late in the season, while UGA lost early in the season. If UGA lost late in the season, UGA is probably ranked around 10 now.
Actually I am not sure UGA is better than OR now.
WDE
November 29th, 2012
12:31 pm
After further review here a FACT we are 11-1 and playing for the SEC title two years in a row..now just for giggles how bad did we beat your bunch by this year?
Celeste
November 29th, 2012
12:33 pm
The Tide will roll over UGA in a close one, then KILL Notre Dame in the National Championship game. ROLL TIDE ROLL!!
Patched Tire On I-95 in Jacksonville
November 29th, 2012
12:33 pm
by the way RIcht and Bobo have a good game plan UGA wins by 10
Patched Tire On I-95 in Jacksonville
November 29th, 2012
12:34 pm
if they do
GTBob
November 29th, 2012
12:34 pm
UGA can only take an average of 25 year. That leaves about 200 for GT.
No that leaves about 200 for GT, Alabama, Auburn, Florida, FSU, Clemson, and South Carolina. There is a reason that a lot of people think GT should only recruit about 1/3 of their players from Georgia.
what of it?
November 29th, 2012
12:40 pm
Schultz, I have to call you out for blatant pandering. The dogs don’t have a good shot at a win here. They have to win the turnover battle and limit mistakes as much as possible. They also have to hope Alabama has an off day. it’s possible but I don’t think likely. Even in bama’s worst game in 2 years, they only lost by 5
Discount DoubleDawg
November 29th, 2012
12:41 pm
Gtbob- If you read my comments I said that , sure Oregon could beat those teams but that is wasn’t likely given the history of what have seen. When the top teams from the SEC play the top teams from other conferences, in games that matter, the SEC usually wins. You can find exceptions only to this rule… but you can’t dispute. Move on…
Thomas Brown
November 29th, 2012
12:44 pm
After further review, really guy, are you impaired in some fashion son that isn’t obvious ? I went to NCAA site, gave you the URL Link to records of teams UGA plays including day after tomorrow since it’s a known game, and you come back like you have everything else ever with BS about some other record of the opponents we’ve played. Damn son. You expect to carry on a conversation like that ?
Thomas Brown
November 29th, 2012
12:47 pm
______________________________________________________________
Division III football North Central College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin.
______________________________________________________________
After Further Review says THIS is his team.
GTBob
November 29th, 2012
12:48 pm
You can find exceptions only to this rule… but you can’t dispute. Move on…
What does past SEC games between other random teams have to do with Oregon vs SC or Florida? Do you really think that because LSU beat Ohio State several years ago that Oregon has no chance against South Carolina now?
GT Fan
November 29th, 2012
12:48 pm
Bama’s schedule, though not much tougher than UGA’s, tougher: Tex A&M, LSU, Michigan. Plus, Bama’s performance vs.UGA against their common opponents (Ole Miss, AU, FL Atlantic, UT) is much better than UGA’s. Bama gave up 30 pts to all 4 combined. UGA gave up 44 to Tenn, alone.
UF’s schedule vs. UGA’s? Not even close. UF’s cross-over SEC opps were LSU & Tex A&M, and they played FSU.
Oregon: the Ducks’ 1 L was in OT to Stanford, another better team, based on schedule & performance, than UGA. Plus Oregon dominated Az St, Az, UW, and scored 62 vs. USC. All 4 of those finished 7-5, and were ranked at some pt in the season. Oregon dominated Or St (48-24), a Beaver team that was Top 10 ranked, and finished 8-3.
South Carolina: LSU & Clemson trump UGA
LSU: Miss St (= Vandy), UWash and, in-a-row: @ UF, SC (w), @ A&M (w), Bama
Texas A&M: UF, LSU, Bama, Miss St (=Vandy), and 9-3 LA TECH (all 3 Ls were to teams that finished 10-2)
Stanford: Oregon, Oregon St, UW (L), Notre Dame (OT-L), 10-2 San Jose St. P-12 cross-over Az, USC, UCLA all Ws, and about to beat 9-3 UCLA again.
UGA: USC – embarrassing L, UF – 6 TO-aided W. With “blinders” off it’s really tough to argue for UGA’s ranking
Thomas Brown
November 29th, 2012
12:49 pm
Alphare “to trash OR is insane. The problem for OR is, they lost their sole game late in the season, while UGA lost early in the season. If UGA lost late in the season, UGA is probably ranked around 10 now. Actually I am not sure UGA is better than OR now.”
___________________________________________
I gave you 4 opportunities to NAME the team Oregon beat UGA could not. As per usual, instead, all I get is BS about how much more you know about collegiate football than I.
Thomas Brown
November 29th, 2012
12:50 pm
gt fans
both of you
42-10
old dog
November 29th, 2012
12:51 pm
Bottom line: Oregon and Kansas State were overated…..they did not play anybody. A bad SEC team, save Kentucky or Auburn (this year) will whoop-up on some of these boys. Every conference has their day, but right now (whether the pundits like it or not) the SEC is the real deal. Oregan nor Kansas State could beat ‘Bama, UGA, South Carolina (even w/o Lattimore) or Florida. Lets see what happens in the bowl games…..then get back to me. Had Oregon gone undefeated and played Alabama (and I’m a ‘Dawg) they would have toted a whoopin’ that would be for real. And K-State? That QB is good, but he is not a Johnny Football and would have been knocked silly before the third quarter. The SEC has one thing on d that the other conferences do not: raw speed! And speed kills! These folks are not used to that kind of speed (of the top teams….of which we were not quite last year.) Remember when Jamarcus “I cannot poor p*ss out of a boot” Russell dismantled Notre Dame? LSU looked so good that (obviously and mistakenly) some idiots thought Russell was a 1st round pick, wonder-lick notwithstanding. The D that he was used to playing against (SEC)was so much faster, that when they suited up for the Irish it looked like the Irish were a step or two behind (and they were.) Even Russell looked good, and his IQ is lower than the coffee machine! (”Purple-Drank” and all!)
So, even though once you get away from the top-tier, and the SEC teams usually play someone in a bowl game that finished higher in their division (3rd-or 4th place SEC team vs. 2nd or 3rd place “other-conference” team) lets see what happens. Every region has its day, and it will shift around like it always has. But right now, the top SEC teams cumulitively are better than the top “other-folks”! Lets see what Kansas State does in a bowl game…………….against a real team!
Thomas Brown
November 29th, 2012
12:51 pm
Now tell us about some other team who is going to kick our butts
Thomas Brown
November 29th, 2012
12:52 pm
SEC has 6 of the BCS Top 10 teams.
PAC-12 has 2 of the top 14, # 15 and that is it.
Patched Tire On I-95 in Jacksonville
November 29th, 2012
12:53 pm
GT Fan
When you bring up embarrassing loses lets not forget Tech lost to a high school team this year
I dont think you should bring up embarrassing losses especially after your team couldnt even score until UGA’s 3rd stringers were in
GeorgeMason
November 29th, 2012
12:55 pm
I think Georgia can pull the upset over Alabama and get an invitation to participation in the BCS championship bowl game against Notre Dame. I dont have any doubt that Georgia can also beat Notre Dame and WIN THEIR FIRST NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP since vince dooleys 80 team with Hershell Walker, Buck Belue, Lindsay Scott and Kevin Butler won it all more than 30 years ago. I felt Georgia was good enough under Mark Richt to win a title and it looks like this will be the year it can potentially happen. All the stars in the heavens are in alignment for Georgia to get into that game and I know the Bulldogs will ABSOLUTELY CRUSH Notre Dame to win the national title and bring the Bulldogs back to ELITE STATUS. Go Dawgs!!
Discount DoubleDawg
November 29th, 2012
12:57 pm
Gtbob- you are really grasping at straws here… Bama vs Oregon, Auburn vs Oregon, You have brought no realistic argurment to the table to support that Oregon would beat a top 10 SEC team… none. Again bob it could happen, just not likely. If you can’t see that I feel sorry for you and you have lost a step…