Predictions: Georgia pulls upset, Tech goes down
According to various websites that I looked through while doing research for this final week of investments — not counting those that kept asking for a credit card number, age verification and automatically opened 27 new windows (Close! Close! Dang it, close!) while my wife screamed down to the basement, “Are you still looking at point spreads!?” — I came across some interesting statistics.
The chances of winning Wednesday night’s $579 million Powerball drawing were approximately 1 in 176 million. That was still far more likely than the odds of having a meteor land on my house: 1 in 182,138,880,000,000. Or about double that for the same meteor landing on the ACC championship game and hitting somebody.
Is that a meteor falling on me, or Dogs going to BCS?
Other odds I came across: 1 in 3 million chance of spotting a UFO; 1 in 11,500 of bowling 300 in a game; 1 in 649,740 of being dealt a royal flush; 1 in 20 million of being canonized; about even-money that one of those Christmas bell-ringers in front of Kroger will spot Bobby Petrino and punch him in the face, and 99 out of 100 that the aforementioned bell-ringer will be canonized.
Which leads me to Saturday’s SEC championship game between Alabama and Georgia. The odds are against Georgia winning. I know this because I keep hearing analysts break down the Alabama-Notre Dame game like Georgia is a hologram.
Lord Saban, via Tigersx.com. (Not my art work, honest.)
Yes, Alabama is good. The Tide have won two of the past three national titles. People are scared when they just look at a picture of Nick Saban, although in fairness you can’t tell from the picture that he’s only 4-foot-2.
Here’s what I see: Georgia’s defense is playing really well. Aaron Murray is throwing to the correct receivers (also the correct team). Todd Gurley — freshman going on Athens mayor. The Bulldogs were smacked at South Carolina, but Alabama lost at home to Texas A&M. The Aggies scored touchdowns on their first three possessions with that crazy no-huddle thing that Saban fears will doom civilization.
Georgia has a shot. A good shot. In fact — wait, did somebody just see a meteor? — I’m going upset. Take the 7½ points, but Dogs win the SEC and move on to the BCS.
(Programming note: We’ll be back in a few weeks with a special bowl edition of “Weekend Predictions,” as well as a new “Sack Schultz” bowl contest. Details to come.)
It’s Hawaii or Bust! You contest video update
Undercard Events
(Look for expanded SEC and ACC game predictions in Saturday’s AJC.)
OK, I'll take some dish soap, paper plates, ACC tickets ...
ACC: Georgia Tech vs. FSU: John Swofford dreamed the other night that he was eaten by 12,000 tarantulas. Unfortunately, he woke up to the real nightmare of his deteriorating conference title game: Tech is coming off a loss to Georgia. FSU is coming off a loss to Florida. Tech (6-6) is only because Miami and North Carolina are in NCAA timeout. Need a ticket? It’s $4. A section? Still $4. Seminoles win but take Tech and 14.
Pac-12: UCLA: vs. Stanford: Jim Mora denies he intentionally lost last week’s game to Stanford to avoid a match-up with Oregon. I believe him. Only brilliant coaches could pull off something that devious. Same story in the rematch: Cardinal covers 9.
Big Ten: Nebraska vs. Wisconsin: Wisconsin is the Big Ten’s highest ranking ethical team in the Leaders Division at 4-4 and therefore is a conference finalist. So I guess the term “Leaders” is all relative to the Big Ten, huh? Huskers covers 2½.
What the ACC needs is a good promotion
* * * Internet-Only Special * * *
Saints at Falcons: The Saints are 5-6. If the playoffs opened today, they’d be in the Poinsettia bowl. This also will be Jonathan Vilma’s last game before the NFL bounty hearings, so if y’all could bring some cookies or maybe write a nice card for him to read during incarceration, that would be nice. Meanwhile, the Falcons are pretty banged up. But at 10-1, pain is all relative. Falcons cover 3½.
NFL Fridge Pack
The NFL's new simplified training regimen.
Seahawks at Bears: Forget Adderall suspensions. Chicago’s Brandon Marshall claims some players are seeking an edge with Viagra. Funny. I never looked at preseason games as foreplay before. Chicago covers 3½.
Texans at Titans: And then there’s the anti-Viagra: Ndamukong Suh’s foot somehow ended up in Matt Schaub’s groin. The good news: If Houston goes to the Super Bowl, Schaub can sing the national anthem. Houston wins but give me Tennessee and 6.
49ers at Rams: There are two sides to the debate on whether Jim Harbaugh should have benched Alex Smith. One side: It’s only Alex Smith. The other side: well, actually, there is no other side. Niners cover 7.
Panthers at Chiefs: If the Panthers (3-8) lose, it would make the home stretch stumble for the No. 1 pick interesting. Probably explains why the Chiefs (1-10) announced plans to wear Crocs. Carolina covers 3.
Eagles at Cowboys: Online headline: “Andy Reid to coach this week.” That would be a season first. Dallas covers 10.
The Eagles are dead. Like the parrot
•
TIME TO SETTLE UP
“If you ain’t just a little scared when you enter a casino, you are either very rich or you haven’t studied the games enough.” — VP Pappy
Last week: 10-1 straight up, 7-3-1 against the line.
Bottom dollars: 110-35 straight up, 85-58-2 against the line.
“Sack Schultz” update: This is it — the winner of the $5,000 Hawaii trip will be awarded this week. Our leader is “Wildone” of Kansas at 146 wins but 10 others are within five picks. I am not one of those 10.
Lilly Pick of the Week: Lilly (8-4) is on a five-game winning streak since her one-week furlough. This week, it was a choice between cheese-accessorized pictures of Uga and Nick Saban. Didn’t even look at Saban. Straight to Uga. Arf.
True story: Lilly swooped in on Uga's cheese so fast, I couldn't picture in time.
By Jeff Schultz
For previous episodes of Weekend predictions, click here.
For recent ramblings, take a look below
• Georgia’s best chance vs. Alabama may be to step on the gas
• SEC title would mean Georgia’s return to elite status
• Georgia playing at level we haven’t seen under Richt
• Short takes (UGA): Rambo’s ascent, Gurley’s comfort
• Upsetting Georgia would give Tech needed boost for future
• Weekend Predictions: Georgia will win on Red-and-Black-Saturday
• Vince Dooley: Joy from Georgia’s resurgence, pain from son’s firing
• Wonder why SEC is on top? Look at other conference finals
• Falcons win — but run before somebody changes their mind
• Georgia’s new reality: From on the brink to BCS title possibility
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440 comments Add your comment
Saban
November 29th, 2012
5:52 am
You ladies will lose by 50. I will be playing the scout team by the third period. Will be good to beat Notre Dame for another national championship.
Richt has reached a new level this year by playing nobody. This weekend will see him and Choakdawg whine like a bunch of beat dwags.
Wrecker
November 29th, 2012
6:27 am
Can’t see how the Jackets can pull out the game with that defense. They likely get rolled by 20 or 25 points.
I would like to pick UGA, but their inability to beat good teams (see their record against ranked teams lately) and Murray’s inconsistencies on the big stage make me hesitant to pick against Bama. Georgia will make it close and cover, but Bama takes the game.
collegeballfan
November 29th, 2012
6:45 am
re GT:
The GT record since 1960 – 332 – 270 – 10
The UGA record since 1960 – 420 – 189 – 15
Buckeye
November 29th, 2012
6:49 am
FREE LILLY
Buckeye
November 29th, 2012
6:49 am
Then free tom brown.
Release him back into the community!
doc
November 29th, 2012
6:56 am
just wondering if anyone has payed attention to the BCS idocy(sp?)—-why don’t they have all conferences have play offs like the SEC—and no team that does not come out of the Championship of each conference shall not advance to the final games of the year. Sounds good doesn’t it?——All teams should win their conference game in order to be allowed to go any further ———–that would take the circus out of the selection process but I doubt it will ever happen.
Buckeye's top
November 29th, 2012
7:07 am
Get off that computer and get back in bed and do what you do best
Thomas Brown
November 29th, 2012
7:08 am
SPANKY,
Under The Bleachers November 29th, 2012 3:33 am
“Thomas, all of spin and stats say nothing, arrest, dismissals and 1980 says it all!”
__________________________________________________________
THAT’S THE CORDIAL WRITINGS OF AN ALABAMA FAN ?
Jefferson Davis Hogg
November 29th, 2012
7:09 am
Dawgs can win if they give up 14 or less. I can’t see us scoring much more than 14 though on their defence. It simply boils down to the Dawg OL. Can’t have many 3 and outs or it’ll be a long night…Go Dawgs!
Thomas Brown
November 29th, 2012
7:09 am
How EASY is your schedule if you played 4 teams in the AP Poll Top 10 ?
# 1 Notre Dame
# 2 Alabama
# 4 Florida
# 10 South Carolina
Columbus Dawg
November 29th, 2012
7:15 am
Over on the Bama blog, their take on it all is that the Bama team is going about it’s normal post-season practice schedule, while the Dawgs are barking about how good they are, and how important this game is, ect,ect. They say the Dawgs are wound up tight, and they may be right, but my gut tells me different this time around. Jeff is absolutely correct, Dawgs win, and advance to title game. Granny Holtz will then spend the rest of December, and part of January squawking about how UGA is no match for the Domers. Did I see the score correctly on the Vandy-Wake game? Vandy must be a LOT better than Notre Dame!
Tech Actuary
November 29th, 2012
7:18 am
ACC Championship game tickets are $3.00 now and dropping daily. I hope to swipe them up at $2 tomorrow. You might be laughing but it sure beats paying $300 to watch Saban bend my team over his knee.
Thomas Brown
November 29th, 2012
7:21 am
7 Bowl teams on our schedule including ourselves & 6 of the 7 will win their bowl games :
1. UGA is certainly going to win our bowl game the way we’re playing now bowl win 1
2. Vandie already nearly Top 25 at 8-4 playing well bowl win 2
3. Ole Miss is not Top 25 material with all their close losses but will bowl win 3
4. South Carolina back to filling in for Marcus Lattimore now bowl win 4
5. Alabama wins maybe the Sugar Bowl bowl win 5
6. Florida wins maybe the Sugar Bowl or maybe CapitalOne bowl win 6
7. Notre Dame is losing to us in their bowl game like they always lose their bowl games
I will match-up the teams we played 2012 and what they actually do in their bowl games agains The SEC but I predict the teams on our schedule which damn sure includes us being on our schedule 2012, win probably 6 bowl wins.
The SEC with 6 of the top 10 teams has a full slate of teams in bowl games, no one wants to play.
Notre Dame last time they took on The SEC in a bowl game, LOST 14-41 to LSU 2006 season.
____________________________________________
NOTRE DAME HAS A LOSING BOWL RECORD 15-16
____________________________________________
Notre Dame in bowl games vs The Mighty SEC :
3-4 vs The SEC bowl games of Notre Dame
NOT THANKS TO ALABAMA :
0-2 vs Notre Dame, by Alabama in bowl games
Resident Georgia Fan
November 29th, 2012
7:23 am
The arrogance some Bama fans display is not flattering and it will in fact lead to a huge platter of fried crow. Wash it down with your tears.
HollySpringsDawg
November 29th, 2012
7:29 am
Thomas Brown, you make some great points but please write less. Takes too long to read. I see a low scoring game like 17-13 or 20-17 with UGA winning. The team is peaking at the right time. The defense is ready and honestly it all ends and begins with Murray. If he is successful and spreads the ball around and does not commit turnovers we can and will win. His play opens up the running game for the backs. It will be a long game if he struggles like he did against UF and SC. This game can really define the future of this team and Richt/Murray’s legacy. GO Dawgs! And Jeff, your writing is awesome. Ignore the haters and keep it up.
Thomas Brown
November 29th, 2012
7:32 am
_______________________________________
55 Years of Georgie tek Football – starting 1957 :
_______________________________________
- not won a Major Bowl Game Current 55 years starting 1957
- been to only 2 Major Bowl Games Current 55 years starting 1957
- one conference championship Current 55 years starting 1957
- 7 wins 21 losses to UGA at Bobby Dodd Stadium starting 1957
- 8 wins 19 losses to UGA at Sanford Stadium starting 1957
- 15 wins 40 losses to UGA Current 55 years starting 1957
- # 38 in the nation in wins Current 55 years staring 1957
- 344 wins 282 losses 13 ties Current 55 years stating 1957
- More football wins than Georgie tek Current 55 yrs starting 1957 :
1-Nebraska
2-Oklahoma
3-Texas
4-Ohio State
5-Alabama
6-Michigan
7-Florida
8-Southern California
9-Auburn
10-Tennessee
11-Georgia
12-Louisiana State
13-Florida State
14-Notre Dame
15-Brigham Young
16-Arkansas
17-Miami-Florida
18-Arizona State
19-Virginia Tech
20-Clemson
21-West Virginia
22-Fresno State
23-Southern Miss
24-Washington
25-UCLA
26-Penn State
27-Texas A&M
28-Miami-Ohio
29-Boston College
30-Ole Miss
31-Bowling Green
32-Syracuse
33-Colorado
34-Utah
35-Toledo
36-Air Force
37-Oregon
38-Georgie tek
____________________________________________________
FSU and Georgie tek 2 CHEATERS both on NCAA PROBATION
___________________________________________________
both had to VACATE WINS
They should call it the PROBATION CHAMPIONSHIP
Thomas Brown
November 29th, 2012
7:37 am
HollySpringsDawg,
I thought Aaron Murray (1) managed the 1st drive of the game against Florida handing off to Todd Gurley for a TD and (2) managed the last drive to put the game away while Florida tried to tie us, throwing the 45-yard TD pass to Malcolm Mitchell.
For the night, Florida quarterbacks 0 TD drives
For the night Aaron Murray 2 TD drives
Wasn’t that the difference in the game against the team I at least acknowledge as the # 1 team in the nation Florida who beat # 7 # 9 # 10 and # 13 ?
True Falcon Fan
November 29th, 2012
7:40 am
Jeff you are right @12:01 am must have forgot to take his Adderall yesterday morning.
Go Dawgs — Tidal wave is comin’, rise-up above Big WIN for the Dawgs — Then the Irish for # 1
Go Falcons — Ain’ts tonight
Joey
November 29th, 2012
7:44 am
Love it JS!
Go Lilly!
Go Dawgs!
Bay Minette
November 29th, 2012
7:46 am
The Alabama Crimson Tide 38, Athens Leghumpers 13
Thomas Brown
November 29th, 2012
7:49 am
Alabama ain’t scoring no damn 38 points on UGA and you bloody well know your offense sucks.
Tomás Broun
November 29th, 2012
7:49 am
It appears that Thomas Brown has plenty of time for blogging now that he’s not campaigning for Obama.
George P.
November 29th, 2012
7:51 am
Go Dawgs! Time to show them the REAL UGA team.
Good idea. Have the UGA team members come with their lawyers, bail bondsmen, and probation officers, plus the arresting officers. That’s the REAL UGA team.
Blaise Pascal
November 29th, 2012
7:53 am
Bama 42, UGA 17
Beatdown City!
Old Dog Class of 80
November 29th, 2012
7:53 am
Where is that Sack Schultz game – I’m in. As much as I hate it for the Dawgs, this seems like easy money.
Old Dog Class of 80
November 29th, 2012
7:55 am
Matter of fact, on another blog, I just told AltamahaDawg that if the Dawgs win on saturday, I would quit posting negative comments about our coaching staff until they had lost 3 games next year.
Thomas Brown
November 29th, 2012
7:55 am
I did not see anyone else do that to the would have been NC 4 times in 17 years Florida, except for Aaron Murray, scoring 2 more TD on their defense than their Florida offense scored.
Jeff Schultz spelled backwards is Ffej Ztluhcs
November 29th, 2012
7:55 am
I wish the dog would predict if BJ was worth the money yesterday by the braves : (
The Plain Truth
November 29th, 2012
7:58 am
A few salient comments about UGA:
1. Four different SEC teams have won the last six BCS championships.
2. UGA was NOT one of those teams.
3. During that period, UGA did not even win an SEC championship.
4. Red panties and Damon Evans.
5. 85% of UGA football recruits would not be admitted to UGA based only on grades and SAT scores. These clowns are called “Special Admits.”
In other words, UGA has sunk into total irrelevancy both regionally and nationally.
So why is UGA still paying Mark Richt millions of dollars a year?
Old Dog Class of 80
November 29th, 2012
7:58 am
I have a feeling that Alabama defense is going to walk right over our offensive line blocking, so Murray had better get his passes off quickly. If he does that, he might have a chance.
I also have a feeling that our running ability will be severely compromised.
I hope I am wrong.
On the good side, even Saban is afraid of Jarvis Jones.
JB
November 29th, 2012
7:59 am
Everything…..and I mean everything this Georgia program has done the last 3 years in hyped big games say we lose. Everything. Now, Dawgs could start a new era, Munson and Lewis Grizzard and Richt’s work with the Lord could come into play. Or, Dawgs may be a little better than we think and Bama not AS good as everyone thinks. I’m proud of this team either way. Go Dawgs
Victoria's Secret
November 29th, 2012
8:01 am
Will the dwags be wearing their lucky red panties on Saturday?
Thomas Brown
November 29th, 2012
8:02 am
62 TD scored 2012 in 12 games by The Georgia Bulldogs, 62. 3 will probably cover this game, and I know we score more than 3 TD in the bowl game.
70 TD 2012 season is my prediction, 70.
Say What???
November 29th, 2012
8:05 am
Enter your comments here
Buckeye
November 29th, 2012
8:05 am
Schultz can solve out national debt problem. Charge ton brown by the character with an extra kicker for each cut and paste.
Crimson and Clover in a Field of Stone
November 29th, 2012
8:08 am
It’s really sad that UGA alumni and fans have only their football team to take pride in. It’s even sadder that this pride depends on the performance of illiterate goons who don’t even come close to meeting minimum academic requirements. 84% of UGA football players are what UGA calls “special admits,” which is just a euphemism for admitting bozos who can’t even read.
This sorry practice not only cheapens all UGA degrees (which are pretty worthless to begin with), but embarrasses the State of Georgia and its citizens. And phony holy man Mark Richt is the one behind the atrocities at UGA.
So enjoy your victories, and be kind to your former players when you see them working menial jobs in custodial or sanitation services. Or pushing a shopping cart around, looking for a warm place to sleep at night. That’s your UGA reality.
Another sobering reality is that Alabama wins by three TDs.
Say What???
November 29th, 2012
8:09 am
@ The Plain Truth… We are currently #3 in the BCS poll, playing in the SEC Championship for the 2nd year in a row, and if we win this Saturday we are playing in the MNC game. Tell me again how we are currently irrelevant?
Buckeye
November 29th, 2012
8:09 am
tom brown,
Re-read Plain Truth. Lather. Rinse. Repeat.
Tidal Wave
November 29th, 2012
8:12 am
Tide 38
Buffoons 17
Buckeye
November 29th, 2012
8:12 am
say what,
What was the last major WIN the dog had and don’t tell me FL this year.
Thomas Brown
November 29th, 2012
8:14 am
JB
Was Florida this time last month too hard for you to remember ?
Say What???
November 29th, 2012
8:14 am
@ Crimson and Clover in a Field of Stone… Please read:
http://blog.al.com/birmingham-news-sports/2009/12/university_of_alabama_athletes.html
Tell me again how UGA is the poster child for “special admits”? Your argument is invalid…
Thomas Brown
November 29th, 2012
8:15 am
http://www.georgiadogs.com/sports/m-footbl/stats/2012-2013/teamcume.html
70 TD 2012 in 12 games and we can’t beat Alabama with our Defense ?
Have to show me that.
Thomas Brown
November 29th, 2012
8:15 am
70 TD in 14 games 62 now.
supersize my TOAD
November 29th, 2012
8:16 am
Where’s these two dorks been at lately?? Waiting in line for ACC tickets?
Say What???
November 29th, 2012
8:19 am
Hey Buckeye? His point was that UGA was irrelevant. My answer to him is that we are pretty relevant at this point in time. Would you agree to that? I mean, you frinckin’ live on UGA blogs so we have to be pretty relevant to you.
GBGT
November 29th, 2012
8:20 am
Obviously Thomas has nothing better to do all day than make up stats. See ya, I have a business to run, of which almost 50% of my employees are dogs who gladly call me “Boss” every day.
An education is a wonderful thing that is not available at all schools.
Say What???
November 29th, 2012
8:22 am
Ah yes… UOAD… The last time I saw that blowhard on these blogs was about half way through the first quarter of the Tech game… Strangly enough, he stopped posting after that. Wonder why?
BAMA FAN
November 29th, 2012
8:22 am
hey jeff nick saban may be only 4foot 2, but unlike you baldy he has great hair
Thomas Brown
November 29th, 2012
8:24 am
Major Wins by UGA under Mark Richt :
# 4 Florida 2012 – I think you’ll have to admit that it got rid of your Flat Tire, didn’t it ?
# 15 Auburn in 2007
# 19 Hawaii in 2007
# 13 Georgie tek in 2009
# 19 Virginia Tech in 2006
# 6 LSU in 2005 SEC Championship AL been to 7 SEC CG won 3, Richt 2 of 4
# 17 Wisconsin 2004
# 16 LSU 2004
# 18 Purdue 2003
# 15 vols 2003 to put vols into these fits they’re in since
# 22 Clempsum Farmers 2003
# 21 FSU 2002 to put FSU in this funk they’ve been in too, since
# 14 Auburn 2002
# 11 Alabama 2002
# 4 vols 2001
# 9 Auburn 2006
Ohio State bowl games against The SEC without a win ever :
(01) 1/1/1993 Citrus Bowl Georgia
(02) 1/2/2012 Gator Bowl Florida
(03) 1/8/2007 BCS Title Game Florida
(04) 1/1/1996 Citrus Bowl Tennessee
(05) 1/2/1995 Citrus Bowl Alabama
(06) 1/2/1978 Sugar Bowl Alabama
(07) 1/1/1990 Hall of Fame Bowl Auburn
(08) 1/1/2001 Outback Bowl South Carolina
(09) 1/1/2002 Outback Bowl South Carolina
(10) 1/7/2008 BCS Title Game LSU
(11) 1/4/2011 Sugar Bowl Arkansas, Ohio State cheated VACATED
11 SEC Teams played in Bowl Games by Ohio State without a win ever
Tell me when you beat an SEC team in a bowl game ever ?