Here’s how Georgia can get to BCS game (step by step) (UPDATED)
Will Georgia players and fans have something to celebrate with a BCS title berth? (AP photo)
(Video added below)
It wasn’t long after Georgia’s win over Florida when I received a few emails and messages on Twitter asking whether the Bulldogs could make it to the BCS championship game. So while this certainly qualifies as putting the cart before the horse – or the crystal trophy before even the SEC East – here’s an outline of what has to happen for the Dogs to get to this year’s BCS title game in Miami on Jan. 7.
1. No. 6 Georgia needs to win its final four regular season games: Mississippi (home), at Auburn (which potentially clinches the East), Georgia Southern (home) and Georgia Tech (home). The Dogs will be favored in all four. They are 14-to-17½-point favorites over Mississippi. Georgia also can’t afford to look unimpressive in the wins because there is a chance that voters in the two polls used in the BCS equation drop them in the rankings.
2. No. 1 Alabama likely needs to beat No. 5 LSU. The reason for that is if Georgia and LSU both win out, LSU is staying ahead of Georgia but there’s no guarantee that Alabama would drop behind the Dogs if they lose this Saturday to the Tigers. So Georgia’s only assurance of passing one of the two (LSU) is an Alabama win.
3. Two of the following three schools need to lose a game: No. 2 Kansas State and/or No. 3 Notre Dame and/or No. 4 Oregon. Let’s break this down by school:
• Kansas State doesn’t get much love because it plays in what remains of the Big 12. But the Wildcats are coming off impressive wins over West Virginia (55-14) and Tech Tech (55-24). They have their two toughest remaining opponents at home – Oklahoma State this week and Texas in the final week – as well as TCU and Baylor on the road. Kansas State’s biggest break: There is no Big 12 championship game anymore — the conference has only 10 schools, two under the minimum, after the defections of Nebraska and Colorado. So it can just sit back and watch the others play, except for …
• Notre Dame also will not play in a conference championship game as a result of being independent. Bu the Irish still must play at USC in the final week. (So Georgia fans could be in the position of rooting for Lane Kiffin.) Notre Dame’s other three games: Pittsburgh (home), at Boston College and Wake Forest (home).
• Oregon has by far the most difficult remaining schedule, playing three ranked teams – at USC (No. 17 BCS) this week, home against Stanford (14) Nov. 17 and at rival Oregon State (11) in the final game. The Ducks also play at home against Cal.
4. If all of that happens, the Dogs can finish as one of BCS’s top two teams if they accomplish just one more thing: defeat Alabama in the SEC championship game. In other words, they would have to beat the nation’s best team for the conference title just for a chance to play for the opportunity to be the best team for the national title.
That would be the most difficult win of all.
So anybody want to put some odds on this?
By Jeff Schultz
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511 comments Add your comment
Thomas Brown
October 29th, 2012
11:54 pm
I also would like to address the others who said that UGA had not beat top teams. We beat BCS # 7 Florida, and that is the best win by any of the Top 5 in the BCS rankings and matched only by LSU. Alabama, Oregon, Kansas State and Notre Dame do not have a win like UGA does over # 7 now Florida in the BCS rankings. I called for this, saying that we must beat these types of teams. We’ve done that. Check. Aaron Murray has his Signature Win. He’s done that. Check. Mark Richt has a Win over a Top 10 team who also has a winning SEC Record in a year in which he has one of his Best Seasons. He’s done that. Check. Todd Grantham has beat a team who makes the Top 10 and beat a team with a winning SEC Record. He’s done that. Check.
So, what do you want here ? For some of you, it’s obvious that you want Aaron Murray, Todd Grantham, Mark Richt, and Georgia to not be viewed as having accomplished :
1. beat top 10 team
2. beat top 10 team in a season we didn’t also lose 3 or 4 games
3. beat SEC team with winning SEC Record
4. gone on the big stage the whole nation watching and beat a top team
We have several heroes and one of them is Mark Richt who had the team get together and have a prayer for Marcus Lattimore just after our win. I pray Marcus can just walk again someday in his lifetime; that would be a world’s plenty for a fine man whom I Love. Yes, I respect Marcus Lattimore; but moreover, I Love the man. He’s my hero.
Jarvis Jones already long-since was the Most Celebrated Linebacker ever in our entire 120-year history. He’s national player of the week. Again.
Todd Gurley got a lot of touches and the coaches are to be commended for this. I called for it, and they had the ball in his hands all night long. He won the game for us. If we don’t get those 2 TD on offense, all the work of our Defense TAKING the damn ball away from hated Florida 8 times and gaining 6 of the 8 take-aways, would have been for nothing.
Aaron Murray has had a statistical career for UGA which continues until next season, and he has played a ton of games, 35. He tried to have Todd Gurley run the ball, up by a point with less than 10 minutes in the 4th quarter. It did not work. He put the team on his shoulders, and single-handedly willed us down the field on the strength of his arm. He was not sacked. He rushed for positive yards and only when he had to, using his Horse when on designed running plays. While David Greene went 0-11 on 3rd Down Conversions vs Florida in 2002 and lost to an unranked FL, Aaron Murray threw a 3rd Down Completion to Malcolm Mitchell who got a downfield block from Artie Lynch to spring him into the end zone for the 2nd conversion for a TD against FL on the take-aways by our Defense all night long. A team who beat # 5 LSU and # 8 South Carolina.
It’s Mark Richt’s Greatest Win by a Wide Margin over whatever is # 2.
Now, if you don’t want these accomplishments to happen for whatever reason you may or may not have thought through and openly stated, then that is not fine.
We have a 1-year window losing 15 players after 2012, and face LSU regular season 2013 without :
Lose after 2012 season:
1. Alec Ogletree Starting Inside Linebacker, Senior
2. John Jenkins Starting Nose Guard, Senior
3. Shawn Williams Starting Strong Safety, Senior
4. Marlon Brown Starting Split End, Senior
5. Tavarres King Starting Flanker, Senior
6. Abry Jones Starting Defensive End, Senior
7. Cornelius Washington Starting Defensive End, Senior
8. Michael Gilliard Started 5 of 6 games at Inside Linebacker, Senior
9. Christian Robinson Inside Linebacker, Senior
10. Bacarri Rambo Starting Free Safety, Senior
11. Branden Smith demoted from Starting Cornerback, Senior
12. Sanders Commings Starting Cornerback, Senior
13. Ty Frix Starting Long Snapper, Senior
14. Richard Samuel IV, Fullback jerked around, Senior
15. Jarvis Jones Starting Outside Linebacker, Junior
There are others we could lose as well, but these 15 are just gone – all are seniors except for Jarvis Jones. They are gone. There is no way you get your way to somehow present that Florida is not a worthy opponent.
What do we want here ?
I want us to beat top teams in 1 of Mark Richt’s best years. We did that. I am not 2-faced. I said beat top teams in a great season. We and these individuals, did that. What do you want ? Several times over many years, I have had it out with some of you about your statements, trying to re-direct you to what is important to my alma mater. Of all teams, all-time, Alabama prefers to not play us the most; and, they are resigned to the fact that they must play a Georgia team who plays with intensity. Once you’ve tasted it; you want it. Folks wanting us to invest all our energies into hapless Ole Miss, miss the point. We must be focused like a baseball team at the end of their seasons, on being prepared after our game Saturday to watch LSU and Alabama face-off and be focused on beating them. The object of the BCS is not to crown national champion. It is, currently, to take the 2-best teams and have a 2-team play-off.
If this and if that, will all take care of itself. We’re not losing a game to end this regular season and you know it.
I know it.
So focus on beating # 3 Alabama if they lose to LSU or beating # 3 LSU if they win, or # 1 Alabama if they win. A win over either puts us against Notre Dame. Notre Dame is most likely the winner in this BCS 2-team play-off this season. We’re only talking about just only Oregon and Kansas State as the only other teams. It doesn’t matter what they do, if we beat SEC West. Notre Dame is considered better than Oregon. That’s Oregon’s problem. Outside looking in. Kansas State loses out to us no matter what too.
Starting coming home Marta 2005 Sugar Bowl, I have been all over all this that we need to beat top teams in a great year. I have watched as all these other teams did and played for the NC. You focused on the wrong issues those seasons, such as 2007 with LSU’s 2 wins over top 10 teams, and such as 2011 with Alabama’s 2 wins over top 10 teams playing LSU who had 3 wins over top 10 teams. Now that we’ve got the best win of any of the Top 5 BCS teams and with 7 of the Top 16 BCS Ranked Teams, SEC Teams, we beat SEC West and we play – we’re 1 of the 2. That’s all you want. Be 1 of the 2. That’s all the BCS is designed to do, to name the 2.
If you waste energy in the wrong areas, you miss the point. The point is that if we are focused today on sitting down after our Win and watching # 1 at # 5, we will see our opponent.
I am not getting into national championship. That’s irrelevant. You must be 1 of the 2. I cannot be more clear about this and you cannot be more all over the place on it. Focus on what is required, look at that horizon and keep an even keel by so-doing. Look squarely in the eye of what is required only. Beat SEC West. Go. We can pick it up from beating SEC West and have a month and a half to worry about national championship afterwards. Not now. Now, only beat SEC West.
GATORBUZZ
October 29th, 2012
11:55 pm
MAN PLEASE NO WAY UGA DOGGIES BEAT BAMA
REALLY
Thomas Brown
October 30th, 2012
12:20 am
We’ve beat Alabama more than any other team in history. They want to play us the least of all.
In 63 games against us, Alabama has won 36 times only.
38 of those 63 games have been AWAY games for us. That’s not right.
Of the 25 HOME games, we’ve Won 11.
Don’t tell me and don’t tell Alabama that Georgia cannot beat Alabama as well as any team in the history of college football.
They know it. I know it. You represent 2 of 120 teams who do not measure up as well as we do against Alabama.
kingdaddy
October 30th, 2012
12:27 am
Buzzoff…
nathan
October 30th, 2012
12:44 am
#2 does not have to happen. UGA still has to go through the winner of LSU/Alabama and will pass the loser of that game should they win the SECCG.
Thomas Brown
October 30th, 2012
1:10 am
# 2 and # 3 do not have to happen, and # 1 is a foregone conclusion. Focus on beating whoever wins Saturday night. Nothing else.
Russa
October 30th, 2012
4:13 am
meh, Alabama didn’t even play in the SEC Championship game last year but they still managed to win the National Title so since that was possible, maybe Georgia could have an “impressive loss” against Bama and still play (though that would mean every undefeated team would have to lose in order for UGA to be the best 1 loss team; and losing early is shown to hurt a lot less than losing late so #s 2,3,4,5 all lost late and Georgia keeps winning).
And if they did have that “impressive loss” with the other teams losing we might see UGA vs Alabama Round 2 for the title game … who knows
Thomas Brown
October 30th, 2012
4:24 am
That would be 2-loss UGA as you describe losing to Alabama, but you call it best 1-loss team UGA ?
Eric C.
October 30th, 2012
4:41 am
Just beat Ole Miss
Murray seems lost without Bennett
The recipe for victory will be a steady dose of Gurley and an occasional dash of Marshall to keep the tough Ole Miss offense off the field
Thomas Brown
October 30th, 2012
5:42 am
Ole Miss is a complete cupcake. 5-3 with their 5 “wins”
Arky # 13 SEC team
Auburn # 14 SEC team
Tulane 2-6
Central Arkansas 1-AA team
UTEP 2-7
They lose the next 4 games to be 5-7 and not even in a bowl of 100 bowl teams.
# 47 Total Offense NCAA Official Ranking
# 47 Total Defense NCAA Official Ranking
They have neither an offense nor a defense.
2013, 2012, 2011 did not even make the Top 25 Scout.com Recruiting Ranking.
They have no talent.
They have beat absolutely no one.
Eric C., talking about what we need to do about Ole Miss is a waste of energy better spent now, like in baseball at the end of the regular season, studying the game live Saturday night and what we can do to bring the same intensity against that winner. Spend your emotions and time on this game is a total utter waste.
We need to get Christian LeMay, not some walk-on QB back out there early against Ole Miss, so that Aaron Murray is not sacked, and get him some reps – so next season we are sure that it is then not him who needs to be readied as the back-up 2013.
We need to give Todd Gurley nearly the game-off too. We could beat Ole Miss with our Taxi Squad.
Eric C.
October 30th, 2012
6:01 am
Thomas Brown, I completely disagree with you…Ole Miss nearly beat Texas A&M and gave Alabama their toughest victory to date. This is not a team to play around with and don’t forget there will be a let-down after the big UF victory.
You are a fool if you believe UGA can just rest starters for this game. Remember the Kentucky game last year??? Everyone, including the UGA players and coaches, expected the Dawgs to steamroll the Wildcats but it turned into a nail-biter.
With the exception of Alabama, any SEC team can be another SEC team on any given Saturday. e.g., Auburn nearly beat LSU…Vandy nearly beat SC…Kentucky gave UGA all it could handle.
Thomas Brown
October 30th, 2012
6:15 am
What does that say about Alabama and about Texas A and M that Ole Miss gave up 33 points to Alabama and could score no more than 14 ? What does that say about Texas A and M that that game was even close ? Alabama certainly was not.
I am no fool. I think that Todd Gurley was used-up against Florida and needs to rest. We have a stable of running backs, any of whom can trounce Ole Miss. And, the same goes for Aaron Murray. He has nothing to prove now. You play him until you get a score like 33-14, and I don’t see Ole Miss scoring even that many in the whole entire game, and then, you take Aaron Murray out so that they do not sack him. The Kentucky game is history. Kentucky would wipe the floor with Ole Miss.
If any SEC team can beat any other SEC team on a given Saturday, then why does Ole Miss only have wins over the 2 worst SEC teams Arky and Auburn ?
Eric C.
October 30th, 2012
6:47 am
Remember a few years ago that Ole Miss went into Gainsville and gave them their only loss…believe it was their last NC season.
Thomas Brown
October 30th, 2012
6:52 am
Ole Miss is a 5-7 team 2012.
Ole Miss is a 2-10 team 2011.
Oe Miss is a 4-8 team 2010.
What they did in 2008 does not matter Eric C. This is not that 9-4 team in 2008 who beat Florida.
Is it ?
MG
October 30th, 2012
8:22 am
No chance UGA comes close to beating Bama.
AceDawg
October 30th, 2012
8:24 am
Georgia will beat alabama—mark it down. Alabama is overrated and hasn’t played a good team all season. Miss State?? get real—they’re not that good. Ga’s D will shut down alabama’s running game like they did fla. Dogs win 27-19!
MG
October 30th, 2012
8:28 am
yawn….you are living in a dream world AceDawg. Alabama has better players, coaches, and are extremely disciplined. They don’t make mistakes, they capitalize on their opponents’.
Thomas Brown
October 30th, 2012
9:16 am
Alabama has beat no one who comes close to Florida we beat. Alabama has played us 63 times beating us only 36 times. Of the 63 games, 38 were away for us at Alabama. At home we’ve won 11 of the 25 games. Alabama of all people, would desire to play us the very least. Especially on neutral turf in Atlanta Dome.
EstaxDog
October 30th, 2012
9:38 am
Ole Miss??? don’t make me laugh—the Dogs will blow them out–that game could get ugly early with Gurly and Marshall running wild and the angry Dog D getting a bunch of turnovers. Dogs 37 ole miss 13!
Realist
October 30th, 2012
9:43 am
You people are delusional. You can’t bank on 6 turnovers from all of your opponents, and truthfully, that’s the only way UGA pulls off another win against a top 10 team.
Ole Miss, Auburn, Ga Southern, Tech… sure you can win all four. Alabama or LSU in the dome? Think again. National title? Think again.
Certainly not the same puppies that squeaked by Vandy, but far from national championship spotlight.
Put in Timeout by Ken Suguira,Filtered by Mark Bradley, Banned by Bill King, Chip Towers & only slightly loved by Jeff Schultz.
October 30th, 2012
9:55 am
Has UGa pee tested any football players this season?
If they do pee test this year it will be on 11/9 the day before the Auburn game.
Patched Tire On I-95 in Jacksonville
October 30th, 2012
10:02 am
Bama overrated
UGA beating bama
lol
I guess AL is going to have 6 turnovers in the game too and we are going to win having going 1-10 on 3rd down conversion
and having 130 yds in penalties with 3 turnovers of our own
yea sure
UGA 56 AL 3
lol
Thomas Brown
October 30th, 2012
10:08 am
Did you think that Florida had 6 give-aways, or UGA 8 take-aways of which we beat them to the ball 6 times ?
DawgJohn
October 30th, 2012
10:10 am
Wow Thomas Brown…..that’s a mouthfull……WE believe in all your stats…..but they are not your stats….They belong to those who earned them…..There is way to much “I” in what you write! Try writing without focusing on “you”. It makes for such better reading!
ARdawg
October 30th, 2012
10:17 am
POAD
Maybe you should start suppying those nerd players with drugs? It might improve their chances of winning a game maybe. Nah, probably not
ARdawg
October 30th, 2012
10:18 am
Nothing will help that bunch and Manboobs. There is no hope
jaxdawgfan
October 30th, 2012
10:47 am
Well since it worked for the Florida game so… All together now:
The Dawgs have NO CHANCE of winning out. The Dawgs have NO CHANCE of beating Alabama. The Dawgs have NO CHANCE of playing in the BCS NC. The Dawgs have NO CHANCE of winning the NC this year.
Repeat as necessary.
Thomas Brown
October 30th, 2012
10:49 am
We ate out at a restaurant on Saturday night and there were 3 in Georgie tek jerseys. Dork, dorky son and dorky fat ugly nerd wife. That was the BYU game. You know you ran in here pre-game bragging how you had no lost to a religious college in how long was it ? So, you run over here to tell us we can’t beat a team who has not beat anyone as good as Florida with wins over # 5 LSU and # 8 South Carolina in the BCS Standings today. And, to talk about drugs. We didn’t have one of our football players running around your campus with 94 lbs of drugs he told the Police he was taking to a place where they could sell them. That was your starting Georgie tek football player. Now, on Most Wanted List. We did not have our scholarship athlete die of heroin over-dose. Again that was Georgie tek’s student-athlete. We are not on NCAA Probation in Football. Again that is Georgie tek right now today on NCAA Probation in Football. We did not have the latest graduation report from the NCAA in the paper this week pointing out again how Georgie tek graduates your football players worse than anyone. That would be Georgie tek as well. We haven’t lost to your coach 10 of the 11 games he coached between Georgie tek and Georgia. That, also, is Georgie tek who has lost 10 of the 11 Mark Richt games. We are not the team # 52 in recruiting rankings in the same state as we are. Also that is Georgie tek averaging the # 52 recruiting class for Paul Johnson; while we average # 7 every season in recruiting. And, we’re not even downtown in a city of 6 million. We don’t have half our stadium empty. That’s you – even having blown-up half the stinky stadium. And, that is even with you giving away 4 Coca-Colas, 4 hot-dogs, 2 bags of boiled peanuts and even a free parking pass if someone would just buy the tickets to your games. We’re not the football program who has not won a single game in a Major Bowl Game after 1955. Again, that is you Georgie tek. We’re # 6 in the BCS Rankings in week 10 of a 14-game season. You’re not even ranked.
Now, what was it you said ?
DawgJohn
October 30th, 2012
10:58 am
As a Dawg fan TB….I am saying “show some class”…. Uhhhhhhhhhh….. How bout act like you have won something B4!!
Thomas Brown
October 30th, 2012
11:02 am
jaxdawgfan,
Once you’ve tasted intensity; intensity is savored. Our Defense took it to Florida. Our special teams’ held their own. And, our Offense punched in the opening drive and at the end of the game, to put the game away, not to mention got to knee it to end it, and put up a field goal against a team who has beat # 5 LSU and # 8 South Carolina in the BCS Standings today.
We want to beat Alabama. We don’t need to have the guys all hyped-up for Ole Miss like that. No team can maintain that level of being hyped-up every game November, December and January.
We’re going to ask the team to do it only against SEC West Champion determined Saturday night.
We will deal with the January game after we play SEC West Champion.
Thomas Brown
October 30th, 2012
11:04 am
And, you’re showing class saying I cannot say we about my alma mater where I was a walk-on
Or, is this do as you say and not as you do ?
Put in Timeout by Ken Suguira,Filtered by Mark Bradley, Banned by Bill King, Chip Towers & only slightly loved by Jeff Schultz.
October 30th, 2012
11:18 am
TB……good teams like BAMA don’t NEED to get HYPED for every game. Teams like BAMA beat the crap out of the competition from the 1st play to the last with 1st string players all the way to the 3rd & 4th string players. If UGa has to get Hyped to win then they are not well coached.
Put in Timeout by Ken Suguira,Filtered by Mark Bradley, Banned by Bill King, Chip Towers & only slightly loved by Jeff Schultz.
October 30th, 2012
11:19 am
TB you were a walk-on at UGa? When in 1950?
TossSweep
October 30th, 2012
11:53 am
To all who say Murray’s two interceptions hit the receiver’s hands, Murray should not have thrown those two in triple coverage. He doesn’t have a rocket arm, and even if he did, he should be smart enough to throw the ball away instead.
Dave Pierson
October 30th, 2012
12:12 pm
Myself and my co-worker, Shane, carefully analyzed the scenario of Georgia getting to the BCS Title game. As a Georgia grad I built the scenario model and as Tennessee Tech grad Shane did the math. The odds of the stars aligning and Georgia getting to the BCS Championship are about 2%. Considering all of the variables that’s not too bad. BTW, we computed the odds of Alabama playing in the BCS title game at 81%.
TossSweep
October 30th, 2012
12:28 pm
Nice Dave. The way Alabama has been playing, you’d think they were an NFL team going against collegiate teams the way they hold themselves on the field. These guys are well-coached group of guys with a lot of talent. But you know, the score is 0-0 and UGA only has a chance by playing them. Anything is possible.
Thomas Brown
October 30th, 2012
12:45 pm
Again, all we have to do to be 1 of the 2
NOT NATIONAL CHAMPIONS
is beat SEC West team
That’s it.
I say the odds on that are more like -3 points.
We have a Quarterback who set the record here for TD Passes and he has 6 more games 2012 and probably only 13 games 2013 with all the 15 seniors gone all of whom have started here.
We have a Horse at TB Todd Gurley, as good as any we’ve had in my lifetime but 1.
We have a Defense which showed you what they can do.
I am sorry, but you said Dave Pierson that you ran the odds and you came up with 2 % of us being one of the 2 teams.
That’s not bad, as you said.
We sit in the catbird seat to beat SEC West team.
It’s as good a chance as we’ve ever had.
Other than 1980. And, I don’t think we had 2 percent chance in 1980.
You cheer your team on.
You urge them on.
You go to the games.
You buy your seasons’ tickets.
You follow your team.
You watch the recruiting.
You pays your money
You takes your chances.
Been a long time to be here today.
7 SEC Teams in BCS Top 16. We beat SEC West, we are in.
None of this we ain’t in.
You win, you’re in.
I would like to see the situation you programmed, because if it follows Jeff Schultz above, as everyone has said here on this blog in reply # 3 does not have to happen, # 2 does not have to happen, and # 1 is a foregone conclusion.
Don’t believe you can calculate the odds on Alabama until you see them put-up a win over a top team. Ultimately, every year the BCS pits 2 teams who have wins over BCS Ranked Top 10 teams. Alabama doesn’t come close to that. LSU does. Florida does. UGA does. And, you calculate Alabama sight unseen with all these freshman at key skill positions to beat LSU.
Do you mind showing me the input stats to prove 81 % Alabama ?
I think we have as good an opportunity as I have seen in my lifetime to be one of the 2 teams.
I can tell you this, whoever beats UGA to keep us out, is going to have to play a great game.
Put in Timeout by Ken Suguira,Filtered by Mark Bradley, Banned by Bill King, Chip Towers & only slightly loved by Jeff Schultz.
October 30th, 2012
1:32 pm
I can tell you this, whoever beats UGA to keep us out, is going to have to play a great game………………………………………………………HAHAHA TB you are CRAZY…..If it is a BIG GAME PMS Murray will SUCK again.
reality check
October 30th, 2012
1:53 pm
Hope everyone forgets the pasting UGA took at the hands of South Carolina.
PonGT
October 30th, 2012
2:34 pm
You’re almost corret. Truth is … All four teams ahead of UGA must lose and GA must bet Alabama head to head. If all four teams ahead of GA doesn’t lose, and GA beats Bama, they still will not reach the Big Game for the Crystal. There is an anti – SEC bias out there right now, and, if Bama doesn’t keep winning, the collective conventional wisdom will be ‘The SEC was DOWN this year”. Blame this on the LSU-BAMA rematch last year. ESPN and the NCAA want BAMA and NOTRE DAME in the Big Game, but will accept KAN ST or OREGON as plausible alternatives.
Furthermore, you are correct in assuming that Bama would not fall below GA in the polls should they lose this weekend. How much you want to bet that OREGON or KANSAS ST don’t fall below GA should they lose over the next 4-5 weeks. It’s rigged; It’s already pre-determined; and it’s a Bogus Championship system, better known as the Bull Crap System.
GO DAWGS!
PonGT!
bitemetechfans
October 30th, 2012
2:36 pm
I think we have a better chance of seeing jesus….go dawgs.
Dave Pierson
October 30th, 2012
2:52 pm
Thomas, our team relooked our figures and came up with a lower chance of Bama making it to the BCS title game at 64%. Originally we used a rough order of magnitude in assessing the probability of multiple independent events to assess the odds of Alabama finishing the season undefeated as 90%. We also assessed the odds of Alabama defeating its SEC championship opponent at 90%. The odds of these independent events both happening would be 81% (.9 x .9 = .81). However, if you actually look at each Alabama regular season game independently you will arrive at a lower number (and probably a more accurate one). We brought in another expert, Tim, to help us get to a finer degree of fidelity. Tim is a West Point grad with a degree in mechanical engineering and an MBA from Georgia. If we break down the rest of the Alabama season we assess the following probability of Bama winning these games: LSU – 85%; Texas A&M – 90%; Western Carolina – 99%; and Auburn – 95%. This puts the odds of Bama making it through the rest of the season undefeated at 72% (.85 x .9 x .99 x .95). We still placed the odds of Bama winning against Georgia in SEC championship at 90%. Factoring for odds of making it through to the SEC championship and beating Georgia, Bama has a 64% chance of making it to the BCS title game.
Here’s how the reworked odds look for Georgia getting to the BCS title game. Odds of Georgia making it through rest of season undefeated – 61% (Ole Miss 80%; Auburn 85%; Ga Southern 99%; GA Tech 90% [.8 x .85 x .99 x .9]. Odds of two of three undefeateds (Oregon, ND or KSU) losing a game is 25% (too much math to show). Odds of Georgia beating Alabama in SEC championship 10%. Overall odds of UGA making it to BCS title game is 1.5 % (.61 x .25 x .1).
So 1.5% chance that UGA will make it to the big show and 64% chance that Bama will.
Put in Timeout by Ken Suguira,Filtered by Mark Bradley, Banned by Bill King, Chip Towers & only slightly loved by Jeff Schultz.
October 30th, 2012
3:11 pm
PLEASE PLEASE PLEASE all you UGa fans that think the dWags will make it to the BCS CG bet your house NOW and beat the Rush.
Bobo
&
Murray
are the 2 reasons UGa will not make it to the BCS championship game.
UGA for President
October 30th, 2012
3:12 pm
This Dave Pierson guy is really onto something. We should circulate his ideas to the guys at ESPN and see what they say. Lots of really good math in there.
Thomas Brown
October 30th, 2012
3:14 pm
Anti-SEC bias out there. Yeah, right. That’s the reason 7 of the BCS Top 16 are SEC ?
That there is an Anti-SEC bias out there in BCS Land ?
Excuse me, they’ve picked the right choice 6 games in a Row, and The SEC has NEVER lost a BCS National Championship Title Game when we have been invited to it.
Auburn actually earns it on the field 2004 too.
In addition.
Anti-SEC bias.
Heard a lot of good ones, before.
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South Carolina ? You mean the team ranked # 8 in the BCS Rankings with 2-Losses, one to Florida 11-44 ?
Odds of other teams going undefeated. That’s the real snafu in the basics.
So, you did follow the logic of this blog. Even though, all these posters have said that neither 2 nor 3 are required for SEC to put our Champion in the BCS Title Game with 7 SEC teams in the BCS Top 16.
I also take serious exception to saying that Alabama is a higher probability of beating Texas A and M than we do of beating Auburn. That’s just wrong.
And, of course, Alabama you have done erroneously as again a higher probability beating LSU than Georgia does CUPCAKE Ole Miss.
I appreciate your honesty in providing the basis.
Can I put up a 10-spot against your odds please ?
I’ll take us.
I presume you will make us # 5 after Saturday night ?
2 of the 3 you have calculated that # 5 UGA has to watch lose, do not have a Championship Game to get that bump. We just got a bump from # 10 to # 5 beating now # 7.
Not sure how many of these you have watched.
Again, to play NC Title Game you must have beat teams BCS Top 10. None of those you said we would gain no bump against at ALL, Dave Pierson, do not play a Conference Championship Game.
If Georgia were just sitting here and # 5 played # 1 Saturday night and the winner moved on, I would concur.
Fortunately, that ain’t the case.
They have to BEAT US.
The 3rd of the 3 above us at # 5 after Saturday night, has no good win and now Southern California is way down and dropping like a ton of bricks.
You calculations are further to determine # 1 when all we have to do is make the top 2.
Beat SEC West and we’re in the game.
Uga for President
October 30th, 2012
3:14 pm
I meant Uga for prez… of course an actual university can’t be president! Don’t want any lip from you Gator fans because it takes me too long to understand what you’re writing (what, with no punctuation or anything).
Dave Pierson
October 30th, 2012
3:30 pm
Thomas, you advance in the rankings by continuing to win AND teams ahead of you losing. In this scenario UGA has moved up over the weeks from its current #6 position to #3 by the time they play in the SEC Championship, due to losses by two of the three other undefeateds – KSU, Oregon, or ND. UGA defeats Bama and moves to #2 with the remaining undefeated as #1 and Bama going to #3.
Put in Timeout by Ken Suguira,Filtered by Mark Bradley, Banned by Bill King, Chip Towers & only slightly loved by Jeff Schultz.
October 30th, 2012
3:37 pm
NO POLL SHOULD EXIST until week 6.
HOW many different top 10 teams have we already had this year?
Stop the STUPID POLLS until enough of the season has been player to know how good a team is and how difficult their schedule really is. Ranking a college team is hard because they lose so many players & coaches from year to years that what a team did LAST YEAR has little to do with what a team can do in the current year.
Uga for President
October 30th, 2012
3:44 pm
Brilliant! I concur with Dave.
Thomas Brown
October 30th, 2012
3:44 pm
I get a .29.
I just did the math.
My degree is from UGA.