Here’s how Georgia can get to BCS game (step by step) (UPDATED)
Will Georgia players and fans have something to celebrate with a BCS title berth? (AP photo)
(Video added below)
It wasn’t long after Georgia’s win over Florida when I received a few emails and messages on Twitter asking whether the Bulldogs could make it to the BCS championship game. So while this certainly qualifies as putting the cart before the horse – or the crystal trophy before even the SEC East – here’s an outline of what has to happen for the Dogs to get to this year’s BCS title game in Miami on Jan. 7.
1. No. 6 Georgia needs to win its final four regular season games: Mississippi (home), at Auburn (which potentially clinches the East), Georgia Southern (home) and Georgia Tech (home). The Dogs will be favored in all four. They are 14-to-17½-point favorites over Mississippi. Georgia also can’t afford to look unimpressive in the wins because there is a chance that voters in the two polls used in the BCS equation drop them in the rankings.
2. No. 1 Alabama likely needs to beat No. 5 LSU. The reason for that is if Georgia and LSU both win out, LSU is staying ahead of Georgia but there’s no guarantee that Alabama would drop behind the Dogs if they lose this Saturday to the Tigers. So Georgia’s only assurance of passing one of the two (LSU) is an Alabama win.
3. Two of the following three schools need to lose a game: No. 2 Kansas State and/or No. 3 Notre Dame and/or No. 4 Oregon. Let’s break this down by school:
• Kansas State doesn’t get much love because it plays in what remains of the Big 12. But the Wildcats are coming off impressive wins over West Virginia (55-14) and Tech Tech (55-24). They have their two toughest remaining opponents at home – Oklahoma State this week and Texas in the final week – as well as TCU and Baylor on the road. Kansas State’s biggest break: There is no Big 12 championship game anymore — the conference has only 10 schools, two under the minimum, after the defections of Nebraska and Colorado. So it can just sit back and watch the others play, except for …
• Notre Dame also will not play in a conference championship game as a result of being independent. Bu the Irish still must play at USC in the final week. (So Georgia fans could be in the position of rooting for Lane Kiffin.) Notre Dame’s other three games: Pittsburgh (home), at Boston College and Wake Forest (home).
• Oregon has by far the most difficult remaining schedule, playing three ranked teams – at USC (No. 17 BCS) this week, home against Stanford (14) Nov. 17 and at rival Oregon State (11) in the final game. The Ducks also play at home against Cal.
4. If all of that happens, the Dogs can finish as one of BCS’s top two teams if they accomplish just one more thing: defeat Alabama in the SEC championship game. In other words, they would have to beat the nation’s best team for the conference title just for a chance to play for the opportunity to be the best team for the national title.
That would be the most difficult win of all.
So anybody want to put some odds on this?
By Jeff Schultz
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511 comments Add your comment
War Mongrel
October 29th, 2012
10:40 am
sorry you don’t agree patched…
juice sourcer
October 29th, 2012
10:41 am
As Lauren Holly said to Jim Carey in Dumb and Dumber…well more like 1 in a million…and Carey’s character said…well then you are telling me I have a chance.
BullDawgRick
October 29th, 2012
10:41 am
WAR – I agree! Football is a game of controlled violence and injuries happen.. I have never faulted a kid for going pro early, all it takes is a dinged knee, shoulder, back & their stock sinks.. But they still have to wait until 3 years out from their HS graduating class..
There are very few Jarvis Jones’, Dave Pollack’s, heck, let’s throw Peyton Manning in there. that come back even as a guaranteed first rounder..
Kevin
October 29th, 2012
10:41 am
I’m just glad the rest of the season still matters. Beat Ole Miss so my tickets to the Auburn game weren’t a waste of money.
yearofthedawg
October 29th, 2012
10:42 am
Ohio State would get tattooed in the SEC. Just like they always have.
If we finish 4-0, then here’s what will happen:
Alabama will beat LSU and finish 12-0. Oregon will beat SC but lose to Oregon State. K-State will finish 12-0. That means it will all come down to the USC-Notre Dame game. If USC wins, then we will play Bama for the right to play K-State. If Notre Dame wins, we’re locked out no matter what happens in the SECCG.
But who cares- lets take care of business and let that work itself out.
Heisenberg
October 29th, 2012
10:42 am
That last drive may get Murray over the hump for big games. That could give him confidence he can perform in those situations because he so far had not risen to the occasion in big situations. However, there is part of me that hopes he declares for the draft because then Hutson Mason will be running things next year. And from what I have seen, the dude can really play.
DawginLex
October 29th, 2012
10:43 am
LSU won’t beat Bama. Bama probably won’t lose but TAM could give them a game because of TAM OL.
I’m only worried about Ole Miss. They almost beat TAM and just beat Arkansas. They played pretty darn good against Bama too.
Then Auburn is going to try and save Chizik’s job. Anyone who thinks that won’t be a war is delusional.
I want to win these two and then beat the 2 TO teams and get to ATL.
Too much football left to be talking about anything else.
Lets Play LSU instead - Go Tigas!
October 29th, 2012
10:46 am
i really think the best chance for the dawgs is if LSU beats bama this weekend and we then beat LSU in the SEC CG. We match up better against LSU and if Bama loses to LSU and then we beat LSU in the CG while Bama is idle then i think that gives us 1 more quality win to jump them in the final BCS standings. I mean I know Bama got to play for the tile last year even though they did not even win their division but do you think that would happen again 2 years in a row. I don’t. GO LSU beat bama and the dawgs won’t even have to play them.
Early Cuyler
October 29th, 2012
10:47 am
How does UGA feel about Richt now?
Alphare
October 29th, 2012
10:48 am
Jeff,
You should add this to your list: if UGA can play its backup QB in place of Murray, UGA would improve its chance dramatically.
dawgs01
October 29th, 2012
10:48 am
berg- thats what i am thinking too. in the fourth quarter i said to my girlfriend watch murray have the game winning drive or something i just knew he would make up for what happened. maybe that helped his head out as far as beating big time opponents. i feel like he puts the pressure on himself you can see it in his eyes.
zeke
October 29th, 2012
10:49 am
Not going to happen! First and foremost, Georgia has not yet made it to the SEC Championship game! Odds are either Ole Miss or Auburn has a miracle and beats the dogs!
GTBob
October 29th, 2012
10:51 am
So anybody want to put some odds on this?
Sure, ill take a shot at it.
Step 1 – Probably a 95% chance of it happening. Not likely UGA will lose again.
Step 2 – I estimate an 85% chance. LSU hasn’t been very good this year. Bama probably steamrolls them.
Step 3 – This one is tricky. Based on their remaining schedules I think there is a 40% chance KSU loses, 30% chance that Notre Dame loses, and 20% chance that Oregon loses. I think im being pretty liberal with Oregon as I don’t really see any chance of them losing. The overall probability of two of the three losing ends up being .188 or roughly 19%.
Taking the probability of all three steps happening and you get about a 15% chance of UGA making the BCS title game. This is an ideal scenario though so its probably between 10-15%. Better odds then I expected.
dmr
October 29th, 2012
10:52 am
Handle your own business. If you do that, let the chips fall where they may. In truth, Georgia needs only two things to get to the BCS title game. 1.) Win out. 2.) Hope Alabama goes undefeated and finds a way to beat the Tide in the SEC Title game. Alabama is supremely talented and well coached. If ALA were to go undefeated and stay #1 all the way through up to the SEC Title Game, then a win over that team would at minimum catapult the Dawgs to the #2 spot.
AGAIN, JUST HANDLE YOUR BUSINESS AND DON’T WORRY ABOUT THE REST.
DONNAN OF A NEW ERA
October 29th, 2012
10:52 am
This crap gets old every year and I never get tired of laughing at UGA fans. Bama will win the national championship and UGA will lose in another bowl game.
DawginLex
October 29th, 2012
10:53 am
flat tire
I still believe along with many others that you should turn in all your UGA gear and your diploma if you have one.
We ran the ball Saturday and gave up zero sacks
LSU 42 yards 1.8 YPC
SC 39 yards 1.6 YPC
UGA 150 yards 4 YPC
Our defense played lights out and Bobo called a good game. He can’t help if Murray crapped his pants in the 1st half. The last drive with the TD pass brought Murray back to a better place. Bobo(who you constantly bash), had the confidence and the smarts to put the ball back in Murray’s hands and it won us the game.
Your constant criticism without any facts to back it up is pathetic.
DONNAN OF A NEW ERA
October 29th, 2012
10:53 am
Do you mutt fans realize that no team has gotten even remotely close to beating Bama?
Rodster
October 29th, 2012
10:53 am
Pretty unlikely for UGA. But just play it out and see how it goes. Still basking in the glow of a win over Florida.
Heisenberg
October 29th, 2012
10:54 am
No matter what bowl it is, I would love to see Bama & Oregon play. Irresistable force versus unmovable object.
D man
October 29th, 2012
10:54 am
I love my Dawgs but I’m not drinking the cool aid. We looked terrible Saturday, Gators played even worse. To think that we will beat Bama in a SEC championship is a stretch but fun to dream about.
Dawsgone
October 29th, 2012
10:55 am
Will be dining on crow for at least the rest of this week due to my thoughts and comments about WLOCP. I really love the Dawgs and it was painful to say the things I did and have those thoughts but they seemed about right at the time. UF did play a lousy game but the defense was what we thought it would be all year and that had a lot to do with the way UF played. Our offense played almost to the level of UF and we still won so I feel we had the better team. We need to be consistent with defense and stabilize our offense. Gurley is terrific and with Malcome and Samuel, they can handle the “up the middle ” offnese but we need to be a little more imaginative with Marshal. His talent is spped and we are not taking advantage of it. That being said, I will not drop back to the negative state I have been in since USC game and awill do and say anything I can to support the Dawgs. Play the rest one at a time, stay focused and prove the doubters wrong.
DONNAN OF A NEW ERA
October 29th, 2012
10:55 am
“I still believe along with many others that you should turn in all your UGA gear and your diploma if you have one.”
How does one “turn in a diploma” because they are critical of their school?
really??
October 29th, 2012
10:56 am
so…it only lasted the weekend to hear how the dawgs can play in the BCS Championship game
DONNAN OF A NEW ERA
October 29th, 2012
10:56 am
“I would love to see Bama & Oregon play. ”
It would be similar to the Auburn/Oregon game.
OLD DOG
October 29th, 2012
10:56 am
Bama is real good but look at their schedule. Only ranked team was Miss State at home and State was ranked because they were undefeated. We will know more after this week
D man
October 29th, 2012
10:56 am
Falcons have a much better chance of going to the Superbowl than the Dawgs going to the NC game.
War Mongrel
October 29th, 2012
10:57 am
Murray vs. Bama defense? c’mon, really?
RxDawg
October 29th, 2012
10:58 am
First things first… let’s just beat Ole Miss. Nothing is givin at this point.
DawginLex
October 29th, 2012
10:58 am
Donnan
You do realize you predicted we would get destroyed Saturday and I predicted we would win?
Who is delusional?
I’m not saying we are BCS champs either so don’t even go there.
ARdawg
October 29th, 2012
10:59 am
K-State looks like the real deal. My Buddies in Big-12 country tell me they are. Unlikely they get beaten. It’s shaping up to be 4 unbeatens at the end of the year unless there is some magic in the SECCG. That chance is remote. No matter how well we play going forward, that 35-7 beat down loses all chance for our guys to play in the BCS NC. We can still make a BCS bowl however
Put in Timeout by Ken Suguira,Filtered by Mark Bradley, Banned by Bill King, Chip Towers & only slightly loved by Jeff Schultz.
October 29th, 2012
10:59 am
Georgia has as much of a chance of playing for the National Title as Padding My Stats against crappy teams MURRAY has of winning the Heisman.
Heisenberg
October 29th, 2012
10:59 am
This Oregon team is much better than the one that lost to Auburn, especially on defense.
nobody
October 29th, 2012
11:00 am
It would work better if LSU beat Bama. Then we would all have 1 loss. The SEC title would be LSU-UGA. A much easier win for UGA. There is no way you can put bama in the title game instead of UGA if they lose to LSU and UGA beats LSU. Of course 2 other undefeateds would have to lose. SEC champ vs. Last unbeaten.
LawDawg
October 29th, 2012
11:01 am
In the unlikely even UGA beats Bama and wins the SEC, I have to assume we make the NC game regardless of whatever else happens. No way a 1-loss SEC champ sits on the sidelines while Oregon plays K State. That said, I think K State will falter in a game they should not (TCU on the road, maybe?) and USC is likely to beat either Oregon, ND, or both.
Why?
October 29th, 2012
11:01 am
I counted four consecutive series in the second half where we (1) ran, (2) ran, (3) passed, then (4) punted. No wonder the passing game didn’t work. Someone should tell Bobo that its allright to win a game on the ground.
Put in Timeout by Ken Suguira,Filtered by Mark Bradley, Banned by Bill King, Chip Towers & only slightly loved by Jeff Schultz.
October 29th, 2012
11:01 am
UGa didn’t MAKE A PLAY to win the against the Gators. The Gator player tried to make an ESPN Hightlight play when he should have just been tackled and had 4 more plays to score and then go for 2..
OLD DOG
October 29th, 2012
11:02 am
The Dawgs in the BCS is all about this news article. It makes for good conversation for the folks that have nothing better to do. All teams in the BCS are in a winner take all playoff right now. Any team that looses is probably out. Loose late in the season and you don’t have time to recover. LET THE PLAYOFF BEGIN. Dawgs loose Saturday and they are out. THE END
DONNAN OF A NEW ERA
October 29th, 2012
11:04 am
“You do realize you predicted we would get destroyed Saturday and I predicted we would win?
Who is delusional?”
You are delusional if you think UGA can beat Bama.
rawdawg
October 29th, 2012
11:04 am
If UGA happens to win the SEC championship in 2005 and 2012 and doesn’t go to the BCS national championship game when every other SEC champ in between went and won, I think bulldog nation’s collective hair would catch fire.
DONNAN OF A NEW ERA
October 29th, 2012
11:05 am
“This Oregon team is much better than the one that lost to Auburn, especially on defense.”
The season isn’t over. There’s still plenty of time for USC to upset them like last year.
DawginLex
October 29th, 2012
11:06 am
timeout
Man, your UGA hatred is showing through. Jarvis Jones amde great plays all day including the one at the end.
Were you the guy sitting in front of me in Commonwealth Stadium wearing Tech gear and a Tech hat? Cheering for Kentucky. smh
War Mongrel
October 29th, 2012
11:06 am
Georgia is not LSU or Bama…UGA has a history of choking in big games…this weekend had more to do with Florida’s ineptitude than UGA’s prowess…Bama would beat them by whatever they want to beat them by..LSU would beat them as badly as USC beat Georgia, but not as badly as the 42-10 spanking they put on them last year..
Alphare
October 29th, 2012
11:06 am
USC beats UGA, UGA beats FL, FL beats USC.
The difference, again this year, is USC have to play LSU while dawgs don’t.
A soft schedule does help, doesn’t it?
rhbDAWG1
October 29th, 2012
11:06 am
Slayer Rules 10:06 am post – Joe Namath played quarterback for the team he made the guarantee for – what position do you play on the UGA team? I am a long-time BIG UGA fan but I surely can’t guarantee anything.
GTBob
October 29th, 2012
11:07 am
No way a 1-loss SEC champ sits on the sidelines while Oregon plays K State.
If Oregon and K-State are undefeated then it will absolutely happen. When did SEC fans start believing that their 1 loss teams will get into championships over undefeated teams from power conferences?
War Mongrel
October 29th, 2012
11:09 am
DawginLex, should JJ step away now for the good of his future? He has nothing left to prove.
GTBob
October 29th, 2012
11:11 am
The season isn’t over. There’s still plenty of time for USC to upset them like last year.
USC is coming off of a loss to Arizona. A team that Oregon beat 49-0. USC is not very good this year.
DONNAN OF A NEW ERA
October 29th, 2012
11:12 am
UGA almost lost to KY.
Bama hasn’t had one single team come close to beating them. Bama has beaten two top ten teams this year.
Alphare
October 29th, 2012
11:13 am
Even though FL lost, FL is still the best team in the East. Do you realize who FL has beaten? FL only lost to UGA by a hair in an ugly game.
How many loses would UGA have if UGA has FL’s schedule?
I’d never complain the system is unfair to UGA if I am a dawg fan.
ARdawg
October 29th, 2012
11:14 am
“Bama hasn’t had one single team come close to beating them. Bama has beaten two top ten teams this year.”
Really, who? Michigan and Arkansas? Surely, you jest