Here’s how Georgia can get to BCS game (step by step) (UPDATED)
Will Georgia players and fans have something to celebrate with a BCS title berth? (AP photo)
(Video added below)
It wasn’t long after Georgia’s win over Florida when I received a few emails and messages on Twitter asking whether the Bulldogs could make it to the BCS championship game. So while this certainly qualifies as putting the cart before the horse – or the crystal trophy before even the SEC East – here’s an outline of what has to happen for the Dogs to get to this year’s BCS title game in Miami on Jan. 7.
1. No. 6 Georgia needs to win its final four regular season games: Mississippi (home), at Auburn (which potentially clinches the East), Georgia Southern (home) and Georgia Tech (home). The Dogs will be favored in all four. They are 14-to-17½-point favorites over Mississippi. Georgia also can’t afford to look unimpressive in the wins because there is a chance that voters in the two polls used in the BCS equation drop them in the rankings.
2. No. 1 Alabama likely needs to beat No. 5 LSU. The reason for that is if Georgia and LSU both win out, LSU is staying ahead of Georgia but there’s no guarantee that Alabama would drop behind the Dogs if they lose this Saturday to the Tigers. So Georgia’s only assurance of passing one of the two (LSU) is an Alabama win.
3. Two of the following three schools need to lose a game: No. 2 Kansas State and/or No. 3 Notre Dame and/or No. 4 Oregon. Let’s break this down by school:
• Kansas State doesn’t get much love because it plays in what remains of the Big 12. But the Wildcats are coming off impressive wins over West Virginia (55-14) and Tech Tech (55-24). They have their two toughest remaining opponents at home – Oklahoma State this week and Texas in the final week – as well as TCU and Baylor on the road. Kansas State’s biggest break: There is no Big 12 championship game anymore — the conference has only 10 schools, two under the minimum, after the defections of Nebraska and Colorado. So it can just sit back and watch the others play, except for …
• Notre Dame also will not play in a conference championship game as a result of being independent. Bu the Irish still must play at USC in the final week. (So Georgia fans could be in the position of rooting for Lane Kiffin.) Notre Dame’s other three games: Pittsburgh (home), at Boston College and Wake Forest (home).
• Oregon has by far the most difficult remaining schedule, playing three ranked teams – at USC (No. 17 BCS) this week, home against Stanford (14) Nov. 17 and at rival Oregon State (11) in the final game. The Ducks also play at home against Cal.
4. If all of that happens, the Dogs can finish as one of BCS’s top two teams if they accomplish just one more thing: defeat Alabama in the SEC championship game. In other words, they would have to beat the nation’s best team for the conference title just for a chance to play for the opportunity to be the best team for the national title.
That would be the most difficult win of all.
So anybody want to put some odds on this?
By Jeff Schultz
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511 comments Add your comment
Thomas Brown
November 1st, 2012
5:11 am
TideRoll,
We will not know that until Alabama beats a BCS Top-Ranked team. That is 2 nights from now. LSU # 5 would obviously be bumped WAY UP if they beat # 1. Can they ? Well, they did last season, now didn’t they ? Will they again ? Not likely – their offense has been atrocious. But, none of that is really the point here.
The point here is that the question is 2012, not some hypothetical year – and the opponents of The SEC getting a team in 2012 have every one of them, every single time, in every single post REFUSED to mention even in passing that The SEC has 5 of the BCS Top-Ranked 8 teams and 7 of the BCS Top 17 teams. Does the BCS formula choose a team with 0 victory over any top team in their own Rankings – say # 17 Southern California, for example, is their only win – or, does it choose an SEC team representing 7 of their own Top BCS Ranked teams and 5 of the 8 Super Elite teams, with one loss ?
This is patently obvious.
And, it has not one damn thing to do with any propensity calculation of what the individual odds are of these cupcake conferences such as PAC-12 and Big XII and Notre Dame with their CUPCAKE schedule actually losing a game.
Every year of the BCS, there have been significant discussions of BCS Busters and other such nonsense, when what actually happens is that the BCS DOES put them INTO the BCS bowls when they are undefeated.
JUST NOT THE BCS TITLE GAME.
There is NO WAY The SEC, with all the support we have in every single one of the components of the formula will begin to submit to Oregon playing Kansas State.
I am sorry that I did not answer your question. I did answer it as the other posters on this blog have repeatedly told you I answered it. You just don’t like my answer because of your BIAS against The SEC. The SEC is the most powerful conference in college football November 1, 2012.
We DOMINATE the BCS Rankings.
The SEC gets one team in 2012, NO MATTER HOW MANY OF US BEAT EACH OTHER UP IN OUR OWN CONFERENCE.
There is not BCS Title Game without The SEC 2012.
2002, maybe, yes. That was a DOWN season for The SEC having that year 2002 one other team other than UGA in the Coaches’ Poll Top 25 for 2002, and that only a 4-Loss Auburn. Alabama was on probation in 2002 and made # 11 in the AP Poll Top 25.
__________________________________
Does that sound anything like 2012 SEC ?
__________________________________
Probabilities of LOSING never has and NEVER WILL have ANYTHING to do with the polls which are the formula input for the determination of the 2 best football teams playing each other in the current 2-team play-off BCS Format.
I will go one further, if there was already in place the soon 4-team BCS Play-Off format for 2012, The SEC would get 2 of the 4 slots.
Look, these Oregon, Kansas State, Notre Dame fans would all get their wish to be placated with a BCS Bowl Bid. Just not the BCS Title Game. In a 4-team play-off format 2012, AFTER LSU and Alabama play and AFTER Texas A and M and Alabama play, there STILL would be 2 SEC teams make the 4-team play-off format.
STFU
The SEC 2012 gets 1 team in the BCS Title Game.
Thought Police, sir, I have noted your posts here on this topic, and should you ever show-up again to tell me you are so damned smart and clairvoyant of the future, I will REMIND you of these posts that you are so adamant about The SEC NOT HAVING A TEAM in the 2012 BCS Title Game.
I don’t care who beats whom in our up-coming SEC contests.
Whoever is the top-ranked SEC team in The BCS Rankings, goes.
That will be either # 1 or # 2.
So.
If LSU beats Alabama, LSU bumps up to maybe all the way to # 1, but certainly jumps all 3 of these NOBODY TEAMS beating NO ONE to at least # 2.
You get that Thought Police who said I did not answer your question ?
I did too answer your question. I did so in a civil fashion, and directly specifically answered it. Then, you run in here like a child and state I didn’t.
You again just don’t like my answer.
LSU wins they BUMP to at least # 2.
Alabama will NOT fall all the way past Oregon, Kansas State and Notre Dame.
You get that one ?
Look, I don’t have to agree with you to answer your damn question you neophyte.
Answering your question is this :
You asked me if Kansas State, Oregon and Notre Dame could find 2 of their 3 be in the BCS Title Game.
I said NO.
I said Hell no.
I said no damn way.
NOT 2012.
2002, absolutely yes.
Not 2012.
This isn’t a vacuum.
It isn’t a mathematically probability that a loses or b losses or c losses or d loses or e losses or a combing of those odds by multiplying their individual chances of LOSING.
It doesn’t have one damn thing to do with LOSING.
They are ALL POLLS.
Computer Polls are not computer polls. Those too are people.
Go look at each component 2012, tell me that LSU isn’t # 2 after they beat Alabama and that Alabama has NO HOPE of being ranked further down behind ALL THESE Oregon, Notre Dame and Kansas State teams.
These teams haven’t beat anyone yet.
Now, if then # 2 let’s say worst case LSU plays currently today # 6 UGA, UGA jumps to maybe # 3, Alabama goes to maybe # 2 from maybe # 3, and LSU drops to # 4.
Again, in that scenario, The SEC has 1 team in.
Can UGA jump all the way to # 2 ?
Well, those are SEPARATE ODDS. 1st, we have to beat SEC West. You do that, and you are in the conversation. You don’t and you have no say. Again, do and we discuss it. How do I know that ? For 3 days now on this blog you have continued to discuss it. Haven’t you Thought Police and your minions hoping that The SEC does NOT get one in.
Futile effort.
Foregone Conclusion.
Thought FACT 2012 with our 5 of the top 8 and 7 of the top 17 compared to their at most 2 of top 17 in every other case.
Uga for President
November 1st, 2012
10:41 am
Hey, DAWG NOLE!
Listen here, guy. Uga for President doesn’t have time to spell chuck. We’re going to the tytle game, for sure… because we’re in the SEC! What the heck is a Dawg Nole, anyway? Hopefully, you have one of those witty “house divided” bumper plates on your car with a bulldog on one side and screaming seminole on the other. In fact, I like to think of my seminole holding a flaming spear above his head, wearing a tuxedo t-shirt because it says like I want to be formal, but I’m here to party, too.
Thought Police
November 1st, 2012
10:49 am
Thomas, once again your conclusions are wrong. I actually have a bias toward the SEC. I’m a UGA ‘84 grad and was a freshmen when they took the title. I believe it is very likely that the SEC will have a team in the title game (probably Bama), but what amazes me is your hubris and inability to admit that it might not happen. Stop chugging the Red Bull, take a deep breath, and just consider the range of possibilities.
Thomas Brown
November 2nd, 2012
6:24 am
If you meant pride, why didn’t you just say pride ? Hybris or hubris is a word with strong sexual connotations where both the victim and the perpetrator were shamed.
My conclusions do not agree with you sir. That does not make my conclusions wrong that The SEC has a team in the BCS Title Game NO MATTER WHAT, and no matter who wins Saturday night with 5 of the Top 8 BCS and with 7 of the BCS Top 17. You know ? Their poll : the BCS Rankings.
You are no different in age than I. A couple years or less difference. Tell me this Thought Police since I chug Red Bull and you what ? When you attended UGA, did they invite any of your buddies to the Foy Fine Arts Building when you were a Senior to have you have your parents come up in a separate ceremony to be Honored in the Honor’s Program as being Top 5 % of your graduating class ? Put up a 3.88 GPA at UGA with 239 hours ? Had the same job since 1991 Thought Police, sitting at the same desk, top in the nation at what you do ? Have any year you put-up $ 160,000 ? Walk-on at UGA while you were there ? Wear your BBA ring everyday now ? Have seasons’ tickets ? Go to JAX most years ? Go to many of the Bowl Games ? Go to every game at the Georgia Dome ? Have all your entire family with seasons’ tickets ? Your entire family Doctors, Lawyers and Business Owners Thought Police ? UGA students my family are. Yes, I have immense pride in UGA, and SEC Football as has been demonstrated by my every post on every blog of the AJ-C and its Access Atlanta sites since just before you graduated, sir. I lettered in 4-sports. How many did you letter in ? I was the only student at Georgia sent to the National Debates for the Debate Team. I went to Philadelphia to the Independence Hall built in 1732 and where the Declaration of Independence and where the United States Constitution were debated and adopted, and it was my paper I wrote in this National Debate on Economics which was the only document which was approved by all students of the top universities in the nation presented to Congress. Unanimously approved by all the top students in the nation as what, we, as students felt should be presented to Congress about what we think Congress should do in our Economy. Did you do that, sir ? Any of it ? Your Dad Valedictorian ? Your family even a Georgia family ? But, I chug Red Bull, whatever that is, and whatever that conjures up in your mind to you while you what Thought Police ? Tell everyone how great and wondrous your theories about this world around you, and how small and narrow-minded my opinions which you state are all so wrong ? My employer has paid me over $ 3 million dollars now for my opinions, and while I am quite sure you are very full of yourself hiding behind your keyboard Thought Police, you have no idea if I chug Red Bull. And, even less concept of claiming I am not thinking widely enough and should consider the possibilities that there does not have to be and might not be an SEC team in the BCS Title game 2012.
Yes, there does have to be an SEC team in the BCS Title Game 2012, of all seasons ever. Never has The SEC been stronger than 2012. And, never have all the other conferences ever in their entire history ever been as weak compared to The SEC as now in this 2012 season, sir.
I love people who act like they are so great, telling everyone how stupid and uneducated and narrow-minded their viewpoints in life, and how their life amounts to nothing. That’s exactly what I expected from the likes of you Thought Police, when I engaged in an open Public Debate with you sir about the topic of 2012 SEC Strength compared to the utter lack of strength of every other conference who wishes that their teams we all at the top of the BCS Rankings, instead assuring The SEC of our Representative in the BCS Title Game, sir.
This is most assuredly not 2002 for The SEC. This is our Finest Hour as a Football Conference 2012. We will absolutely be represented in the BCS Title Game. My loyalties have never ever kept me from saying what I think is the salient point – especially in this my hobby, college football, sir. My research and accumulated knowledge in my hobby transcends your own in any area you wish you were knowledgeable about, but instead superciliously, run online to state as braggadocio of your superior intellect and education from my alma mater and how everyone else must kowtow to your pontifications that only your viewpoint, the valid concept. It’s really all you’ve ever done posting as this handle Thought Police.
If you made a valid point that The SEC will not have a representative in the BCS Title game no matter what, it is obviated by your oblique obtuseness happy in your ignorance that your view is not even going to be enhanced by the likes of anyone else other than your Majesty, sir, that The SEC certainly does NOT deserve to have a representative in the BCS Title Game 2012. Sure we do. You simply cannot bring yourself to admit it, so you resort to personal Flame posts of your acknowledged and proven superiority to all around you : Thus your mission in Life : Thought Police to teach us all what we only wish we could aspire to someday.
I am not sure that UGA can make it to the BCS Title Game 2012. I am certain we play SEC West team, and I am going to be there at the game, as always when we do play The SEC West team at the Georgia Dome. And, we all came in here on this blog to discuss just that, sir, Thought Police. I have offered up my thoughts about such, and you have crammed it down my throat that only your viewpoint that The SEC does not necessarily have to have a team even play in the BCS Title Game.
That is not broad-minded in its foundation Thought Police for you to offer-up as the only way this all can turn-out. It is a biased view sir that some 2 other conferences not 1 of whom has more than 2 teams in the BCS Top 17 ranked teams this day will BOTH send their representative having beat NO ONE, while The SEC Good Lord has a team LOSE a game and therefore out beating up on ourselves as the very top of the BCS Rankings.
We’re in the national discussion. We’re being talked about. This is a direct result of us beating Florida 2012, an accomplishment which on this day, transcends the accomplishments to-date 2012 of all the teams you insist must only be considered for the BCS Title Game sir.
So, sir, if there is anyone with any mis-founded arrogance, conceit, smugness, self-importance, egotism, vanity and narrow-mindedness, it would be someone so presumptuous as to go on the Internet and put-forth the nation that you sir are the Thought Police for anyone who dares to offer up on this blog that the BCS Title Game 2012 is between 1 SEC team and 1 from the other conferences – and, most likely not Oregon nor Kansas State as I have succinctly put-forth here on this blog, thinking wrongly you came in here to discuss it openly with an open mind to other ideas not now held as your own view.
We don’t know who wins tomorrow night. We don’t know if that team will beat us. We do know however that most-likely 1 of those 2 teams tomorrow night probably represents The SEC in the BCS Title Game; but we could; the winner could; the loser could; and, while I have demonstrated to you how each of those scenarios might happen : All you can offer-up as alternative is that I chug Red Bull and my conclusions are all wrong because you were a freshman at my alma mater when I had seasons’ tickets and watched every game as we last did.
Uga for President
November 2nd, 2012
3:31 pm
Been away from the blog a while doing actual work, but glad I came back today to visit. Mr. B… YOU. ARE. AWESOME.
You’re clearly articulated credentials that should cement your defense of the “SEC in the BCS title game regardless of what happens in college football” argument:
A 3.88 GPA from UGA (with 289 hours, mind you)?… “Incredible” is the only word I can think of.
Your Dad was a valedictorian?…. POW! How you like them apples!
Wear your BBA ring….. BAM, that just happened! Representin’!
Entire family doctors, lawyers, and business owners?…. most of us can only dream about it.
Season tickets to UGA?… no idea how to get into this elite group
Same job since ‘91?…. haven’t figured out how to successfully stagnate, but I’m workin’ on it; this damned upward mobility is killing me with the amount of thinking and adapting I am constantly required to do! I only WISH I could anchor myself to one desk for twenty plus years… why would I ever have to think again? Hell, I’d have time for multiple page rants on an inconsequential blog! Sigh.
When I graduated from UGA my mommy and daddy didn’t get invited to any building… certainly not the Foy Center… and I was a summa cum laude MBA at Terry! Of course, I was a grown-ass man at the time with a family, but I still feel really bummed about this now that I realize that other people’s parents got invited to buildings. Just doesn’t seem fair. I’m gonna lie in bed tonight thinking about this before I cry myself to sleep.
Now, as much as all of this strengthens your “it’s only the SEC in the national championship, baby” argument, I can’t agree with you. You state that Independence Hall was built in 1732, when a simple fact check reveals that the ground breaking occurred in 1732, but the building was constructed piece-meal over 21 years. Soooooooooo, it wasn’t really “built” built until 1753. Come on guy… you’re better than that! If you can’t get facts straight on the building where the Declaration of Independence and the Constitution were debated, or more importantly, where you saved our national economy through vigorous debate, how can one trust your BCS ranking calculations? I was almost duped.
Did that go the way you thought it was gonna go? Nope.
Uga for President
November 2nd, 2012
3:35 pm
Oh, and have a nice weekend!
Thomas Brown
November 2nd, 2012
4:49 pm
239 hours
sigh on the next point with you but yeah
summa cum laude MBA at Terry, think that was it – totally awesome
it is Top 5 % of Graduating Class your Senior year not MBA, so think that is it
either way, way to go !
I was in the building. They don’t let anyone walk on the floor boards since they were installed in 1732; but we were allowed on the floors.
Quite the Honor.
Ok so UGA for President doesn’t want to believe that The SEC gets Slot 1 or Slot 2 and the other teams nationally are shooting for – between them mind you – only one slot.
That’s fine.
Keep on plugging
Read them and weep – no matter whom it is who wins tomorrow night, SEC gets a slot.
If LSU wins, they BUMP up from # 5 to # 2.
If AL wins, then are # 1; if they lose, they drop to # 3 – unlike last year dropping to # 2 – although I thought AL was the better team in game 1 and said so, and they proved it shutting out LSU in game 2.
If UGA plays # 1 AL, we can go to # 3 I think from # 4 – have to see if I am correct about Kansas State losing. LSU would have dropped from # 5 down to like # 7 with a loss to AL moving us up from # 5 to # 4 whether Kansas State loses as I guarantee or not.
If UGA plays # 2 LSU rather than # 1 AL, and we lose to # 2, we drop from # 5 to # 7 – worse than FL who has 2 great wins over South Carolina currently # 8 and over LSU currently # 5 moving FL up to # 6 or higher.
If UGA plays #2 LSU rather than # 1 AL and we win, well…
this really is the question, as I see it. Right now thinking # 3 for us. Have to see if I am right that no BUMP Oregon playing no top-ranked BCS Teams since Stanford and Southern California both have 2-losses and we all know Southern California is the representative in the only other relevant conference championship game, however relevant that one is too.
Facts are The SEC no matter what has a team in the BCS Title Game.
I’ll remember all this.
Will you with your BS ?
Thought Police
November 2nd, 2012
7:25 pm
Thomas, did you mention that one of your relatives was a doctor because I fell asleep while reading your manifesto and hit my head on the keyboard. As for the definition of hubris, I’m surprised that someone with a 3.88 GPA had to look that up. Not sure what deviant dictionary you were using when you went all Sandusky, but you probably need to stay away from that website. The simple definition is exaggerated pride or arrogance, which seems to fit nicely after the self-promoting tome you posted. When you were beaming with pride at Foy Hall is this where you saw yourself, as an overbearing blog bully spewing half-baked theories and chasing off everyone who doesn’t agree. What happened to the self-proclaimed intellectual from the award-winning debate team? Of course all of this assumes that your post is authentic. Here’s where the contradiction enters. Does it make sense that someone as smart and successful as you would place so much personal information on an unsecured blog site? Not unless it was made up. It’s just not worth the risk and a 3.88 GPA would know that. Have you ever listened to the Brad Paisley song, “I’m so Much Cooler On-line?” Seems kind of appropriate here. BTW wasn’t Thomas Brown a running back for UGA who now plays for the Browns? He’s so much cooler on line.
Neutral
November 2nd, 2012
9:57 pm
Many fans have forgotten that USC was #1 at the beginning of the season in several polls…even ahead of Bama. They lost shoot-outs with 2 very good teams. I find it difficult to believe that USC will not beat either ND or Oregon since both are home games for USC. In fact, I would not be the least bit surprised if USC wins BOTH games. go Dawgs…..think positive.
Thomas Brown
November 3rd, 2012
12:10 am
“The simple definition is exaggerated pride or arrogance” It is NOT. So, you lied then too, about MBA from UGA. Oh, and of course your grades, as is obvious from every single post you have ever posted. As for your self-importance – your handle says all that needs to be known on that topic son : Thought Police, like you have to Police people’s thoughts. Get over yourself; you’re a nobody – just like GTBoob. Let’s establish your street cred on the Internet with nothing but lies about a MBA from UGA with a 4.0.
Uga for VP
November 3rd, 2012
12:29 pm
IF you soiled a sacred board in Independence Hall laid in 1732 with the filthy soles of your bare feet ( which is incredibly disrespectful in many cultures, by the way)
THEN no way LSU bumps from # 4 to # 8 on page 6 or 7 of this blog as you claim