Here’s how Georgia can get to BCS game (step by step) (UPDATED)
Will Georgia players and fans have something to celebrate with a BCS title berth? (AP photo)
(Video added below)
It wasn’t long after Georgia’s win over Florida when I received a few emails and messages on Twitter asking whether the Bulldogs could make it to the BCS championship game. So while this certainly qualifies as putting the cart before the horse – or the crystal trophy before even the SEC East – here’s an outline of what has to happen for the Dogs to get to this year’s BCS title game in Miami on Jan. 7.
1. No. 6 Georgia needs to win its final four regular season games: Mississippi (home), at Auburn (which potentially clinches the East), Georgia Southern (home) and Georgia Tech (home). The Dogs will be favored in all four. They are 14-to-17½-point favorites over Mississippi. Georgia also can’t afford to look unimpressive in the wins because there is a chance that voters in the two polls used in the BCS equation drop them in the rankings.
2. No. 1 Alabama likely needs to beat No. 5 LSU. The reason for that is if Georgia and LSU both win out, LSU is staying ahead of Georgia but there’s no guarantee that Alabama would drop behind the Dogs if they lose this Saturday to the Tigers. So Georgia’s only assurance of passing one of the two (LSU) is an Alabama win.
3. Two of the following three schools need to lose a game: No. 2 Kansas State and/or No. 3 Notre Dame and/or No. 4 Oregon. Let’s break this down by school:
• Kansas State doesn’t get much love because it plays in what remains of the Big 12. But the Wildcats are coming off impressive wins over West Virginia (55-14) and Tech Tech (55-24). They have their two toughest remaining opponents at home – Oklahoma State this week and Texas in the final week – as well as TCU and Baylor on the road. Kansas State’s biggest break: There is no Big 12 championship game anymore — the conference has only 10 schools, two under the minimum, after the defections of Nebraska and Colorado. So it can just sit back and watch the others play, except for …
• Notre Dame also will not play in a conference championship game as a result of being independent. Bu the Irish still must play at USC in the final week. (So Georgia fans could be in the position of rooting for Lane Kiffin.) Notre Dame’s other three games: Pittsburgh (home), at Boston College and Wake Forest (home).
• Oregon has by far the most difficult remaining schedule, playing three ranked teams – at USC (No. 17 BCS) this week, home against Stanford (14) Nov. 17 and at rival Oregon State (11) in the final game. The Ducks also play at home against Cal.
4. If all of that happens, the Dogs can finish as one of BCS’s top two teams if they accomplish just one more thing: defeat Alabama in the SEC championship game. In other words, they would have to beat the nation’s best team for the conference title just for a chance to play for the opportunity to be the best team for the national title.
That would be the most difficult win of all.
So anybody want to put some odds on this?
By Jeff Schultz
Tell us what you think about the site
Customer Care »
Vacation stops, manage subscriptions and more
AJC Services
Sections
Other Editions
Visitor Agreement | Privacy Statement
© 2013 The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
511 comments Add your comment
Dave Pierson
October 30th, 2012
3:51 pm
Thomas, not sure exactly what math you are referring to, nor do I know what the .29 is referring to. A 29% chance of what? Also, I’m from UGA which I think you lost track of somewhere in the discussion. I’m not a Bama fan, just doing the math to support my team. Go Dawgs!
Thomas Brown
October 30th, 2012
3:52 pm
You do that David, by determining the probability of beating the winner of Saturday night’s game. You keep talking about # 2 # 3 and # 4.
2007, LSU beat a BCS Top 10 team and jumped to # 1.
Of course, I have only followed this BCS every year it has been used.
We have a pool of us all over the nation, that I administer. Specifically track BCS Top 10 teams who the NC Title Game pits against each other.
Have not seen you on these blogs and I like the discussion with you on it. Unfortunately, I made 100 in Accounting and Statistics and in Physics and in Finance.
That is why I so quickly got the meat of it with you, only to have no reply about your Theory that it is
Easier for Alabama to beat Texas A and M than UGA to beat Auburn
(Put the pipe down.)
Easier for Alabama to beat LSU than UGA to beat CUPCAKE Ole Miss
Why didn’t you reply to that point about these 2 erroneous assumptions in your math, David ?
I do see where you repeat that # 2 # 3 # 4 all have to lose for “UGa to move up.”
Uh, no. It doesn’t work like that at all.
BUMP SEC Championship Game
All we have to do is beat SEC West.
.29
Put in Timeout by Ken Suguira,Filtered by Mark Bradley, Banned by Bill King, Chip Towers & only slightly loved by Jeff Schultz.
October 30th, 2012
3:59 pm
STOP the madness of the Polls before week 6
There have been 20 top 10 teams as of the last poll.
STOP the STUPIDITY of the POLLS until week 6.
STOP the STUPIDITY of the HEISMAN Race until week 8 too.
Dave Pierson
October 30th, 2012
4:02 pm
Trying to follow your logic here. If KSU finishes 12-0 and Oregon finishes 13-0 and UGA beats Bama for SEC, then you think an 11-1 UGA team goes to the BCS Title game ahead of one of these undefeated teams? Not going to happen. Read Jeff Shultz’s premise at the lead of this thread. He has it right; in order for UGA to go, there can be only one undefeated team left.
Dave Pierson
October 30th, 2012
4:03 pm
Sorry, a 12-1 UGA team
Thomas Brown
October 30th, 2012
4:08 pm
I pulled it out of my hind-end, same as you on these :
If we break down the rest of the Alabama season we assess the following probability of Bama winning these games: LSU – 85%; Texas A&M – 90%;
Odds of Georgia Ole Miss 80%; Auburn 85%
Again, you pull that out of your hind-end that the probability of AL beats LSU HIGHER PROBABILITY than UGA beats CUPCAKE Ole Miss.
Higher probability, you SAY, AL beats LSU than UGA beats Ole Miss
Higher probability, you SAY, AL beats Texas A and M than UGA beats Auburn
I had more Physics’ questions thrown-out on this type BS than I did sit there and calculate the answer. I would spend the hour arguing the basics are bogus. I’d win.
There is no basis for stating that AL has an easier game beating Texas A and M than UGA vs Auburn.
Just as there exists no basis that AL has an easier game beating LSU than UGA vs Ole Miss.
I try to be kind about it; but the facts are this is wrong. Agree ? Disagree ?
Dave Pierson
October 30th, 2012
4:12 pm
Thomas, to reply to the Bama-LSU and UGA-Ole Miss assumptions — they are exactly that, assumptions. They are necessary guesses in order to complete the equations. If you change them by few percentage points you will move the numbers up or down slightly but UGA’s number won’t get much over 3% and Bama’s won’t get much lower than 60%. This whole blog is about guessing what will happen. None of us know for sure; that’s why we bounce these opinions off of each other. By gathering more information we get closer to statistical inference — Bayesian probability.
Thomas Brown
October 30th, 2012
4:16 pm
Point # 1 – assuming I ever get an answer on my point # 1 easier games AL vs TAMU, LSU than harder games UGA vs Auburn Ole Miss. I am sorry Dave, but that is just wrong sir.
Point # 2 – You state that you did the mathematics of Jeff Schultz’s column, agreeing with it, when the entire 10 pages of 500 comments are devoted to where it’s ALL WRONG. And, further state that say, for example, a # 5 UGA beats # 7 Florida and # 1 Alabama, that we would NOT be playing in the BCS NC game because Oregon beat no one higher than # 17. Just as a for example. I am sorry; that is just wrong.
If you can pull it out of your rear-end that AL has an easier game vs TAMU and LSU than UGA vs Auburn and Ole Miss, surely you suspected one of the brains in your classes with you at UGA to tell you : Sorry.
Uga for President
October 30th, 2012
4:17 pm
Dave, not quite how the Bay of Pigs fits into this, but I know FOR A FACT (shouting it right now) that wearing silver britches factors somehow into the BCS rankings. I’m with Tom. We’re going to the BCS tible game… PERIOD. Just look at our pants! Oh yeah, and did I mention we’re in the SEC? That’s right. It stands for “untouchable” – there’s a silent U in there.
Uga for President
October 30th, 2012
4:20 pm
… and might I point out that the Bay of Pigs was a decidedly UNsuccessful invasion by a CIA-trained force of cuban exiles. Hmmm, seems you have quite the fallacious argument, Dave.
Thomas Brown
October 30th, 2012
4:24 pm
That’s not Bayesian probability, but propensity you offer.
Thomas Brown
October 30th, 2012
4:26 pm
How can you state you are using Bayesian probability when you state that
Alabama HAS EASIER GAMES vs LSU and TAMU
than the
HARDER GAMES UGA has vs Ole Miss and Auburn
Thomas Brown
October 30th, 2012
4:27 pm
utter hogwash
Dave Pierson
October 30th, 2012
4:29 pm
You really need to get over the assessments of the individual games in this discussion. Based upon your argument, even if Oregon goes undefeated and Bama, KSU, and ND all lose games, Oregon can’t go to the title game because they haven’t defeated anyone good enough? If Oregon is the last undefeated team I GUARANTEE they are going. Your understanding of the BCS rankings system is wrong, even if you have studied it for the past decade.
Also you referenced physics several times in the thread. Physics have nothing to do with probability or statistics. They have a lot to do with what happens on the field though.
Uga for President
October 30th, 2012
4:37 pm
You’re wrong, Dave. I played King of the Hill as a child. When you knocked the King off the top of the hill, you took his spot. The BCS is JUST like that. It’s so simple. Alabama is the King of the Hill right now. When we knock them off, we will be King. What Oregon, K State, or Notre Dame does has absolutely no bearing on the problem, here. Here’s another little known fact about the BCS computer rankings. It’s written into the computer code that an SEC team is always King. it’s based on the Generally Accepted Accounting Principle (GAAP) of hisotrical cost. They don’t advertise that, Dave. It’s insider information… I know people.
Dave Pierson
October 30th, 2012
4:39 pm
Thanks Uga for clearing all this up. Now it all makes sense.
Thomas Brown
October 30th, 2012
4:46 pm
If your basis is that # 5 (again since no reply about what # UGA is Saturday night) UGA has to witness losses by 2, 3 and 4; your statistical inference is founded upon an unfounded basis.
2
3
4
offer up as their best wins nothing like that UGA would offer-up by doing what I say has a .29 probability and that is SIMPLY BEATING SEC West. My .29 is far more correct than yours that AL has easier games vs LSU and TAMU than UGA vs Auburn and Ole Miss. We would have # 7 and # 5 and the best any 2, 3, 4 could possibly offer-up to TAKE The SEC OUT of the BCS NC Title Game would be a win over maybe about # 20.
It AIN’T happening.
Wrong basis.
Thomas Brown
October 30th, 2012
4:50 pm
What Oregon, K State, or Notre Dame does has absolutely no bearing on the problem, here – when they have NO WINS OVER ANY QUALITY TEAM. Now, 1 will play SEC. The 3 are not on an island by themselves – just an island with those 3 only on it – when there are 7 BCS Ranked Teams in the BCS Top 17. Yeah, sure – let’s play one of them.
Already told you who : Notre Dame
Thomas Brown
October 30th, 2012
4:52 pm
I will further state that the statistical probability of The SEC having a team in the BCS NC Title Game with 7 SEC teams in the BCS Top 17 is 100 %
Thomas Brown
October 30th, 2012
4:55 pm
Nowadays, you would have to find a season like 2002 where besides us there were NO OTHER SEC teams in the Coaches’ Poll Top 25 except for a 4-Loss Auburn for there be any chance in Hell of 2, 3 and 4 having more than 1 team in the game.
Certainly not 2012 where The SEC is stronger than all the other conferences COMBINED.
Thomas Brown
October 30th, 2012
4:56 pm
Say the season ended today and they tried to have say Kansas State play Oregon
Thomas Brown
October 30th, 2012
4:58 pm
riotous
Dave Pierson
October 30th, 2012
5:02 pm
Sorry to burst your bubble again, but while there is a very good chance that there will be an SEC team in the title game, it nowhere near 100%. You probably need to get off this blog once in while and listen to what’s being said on ESPN and other sports outlets. They are laying out the scenarios in which there is no SEC team in the championship. There are several. You appear to know more than the folks who make a living at this. The fact that you say it is 100% sure indicates that you are either inflammatory or don’t understand the system or statistics. Take your pick. You let emotion rule your posts rather than logic and common sense. You and Uga for president can work the master plan for BCS dominance. It’s not King of the Hill.
Thomas Brown
October 30th, 2012
5:05 pm
Therefore, the calculations have to factor in that only 1 of these 3 are IN : 2, 3, 4
Thomas Brown
October 30th, 2012
5:07 pm
I’ll take that bet that 2012 with 7 SEC teams in the BCS rankings themselves in the Top 17, better than ALL the other conferences COMBINED, has no one in the BCS Title Game. That’s the beauty of you making that statement from a keyboard in the face of questions asked of you which repeatedly you duck.
Why is that ?
Uga for President
October 30th, 2012
5:08 pm
Tom, I’m with you, man. I don’t know why we don’t just end the season right now and put TWO SEC teams in the title game. All those other teams out there, the BCS calculations, the polls, the logic… it’s all irrelevant. Clearly (and I borrow this from the Princess Bride) only an SEC team and some other sacrificial lamb get to play in the BCS Championship. It is sooooooo obvious! You have laid this out with unmatched circular logic. I just got a business idea. I’m going to start printing BCS Championship game t-shirts right now!
Jacob Folker
October 30th, 2012
5:21 pm
This from the same hack writer who said Saban wouldn’t win at Alabama; that Alabama didn’t have heroes, only ghosts…
kingdaddy
October 30th, 2012
5:36 pm
Did ND, K St., or Oregami beat a #1 & a #2? If UGA beats #1 Alabama, then they deserve a shot. The other teams are good, but haven’t played in the SEC. There are 5 SEC Teams in the top 8 in the country. The SEC is the premier conference in NCAA football, hands down. So says history…
Eric C.
October 30th, 2012
6:03 pm
IF, if UGA wins out and gets a shot to play an undefeated Alabama in the SECCG, and IF they actually beat them, it would be enough to propel them above an undefeated KSU. I can see the smoke and sparks flying from the computers if the Dawgs can pull that off.
TimR
October 30th, 2012
6:45 pm
Still so disappointed about the S.Carolina game…let’s not get ahead of ourselves…one game at a time…go DAWGS!!
B1Gator
October 30th, 2012
7:15 pm
Fla wins out, plays Notre Dame or Kansas State in the Sugar Bowl, dogs get blown out by alabama and play mich state in the capital one bowl. Congrats!
kingdaddy
October 30th, 2012
8:05 pm
Sour grapes make for a good whine…
Whiznot
October 30th, 2012
9:42 pm
The Dawgs have a very slim chance of reaching the title game only If Aaron Murray has a lobotomy first. All the psych courses Murray took have warped his feeble brain (good husbands and wives?) to the point that he suffers from Big Game Phobia. After a lobotomy Murray might not realize that the SEC Championship is a big game.
DawgNole
October 30th, 2012
10:09 pm
Uga for President
October 30th, 2012
4:17 pm
Dave, not quite how the Bay of Pigs fits into this, but I know FOR A FACT (shouting it right now) that wearing silver britches factors somehow into the BCS rankings. I’m with Tom. We’re going to the BCS tible game… PERIOD. Just look at our pants! Oh yeah, and did I mention we’re in the SEC? That’s right. It stands for “untouchable” – there’s a silent U in there.
_____________________
We’re going to the BCS “tible” game . . . .”?
Tell us more about this tible game. Sounds like an interesting proposition.
Thomas Brown
October 31st, 2012
2:01 am
Yeah West Virginia, ranked # 21 in the BCS Ranking, is great losing both of their last 2 games including to Texas Technical college Matadors coached by Tommy Tuberville who is 13-12 as their football coach after he got run out of The SEC on a rail.
Oh, Kansas State beat West Virginia ? Honk if you beat West Virginia in the Big XII (small X.)
the Big XII (small X) gives Texas as the Revenue in the Revenue-Sharing, thus Nebraska, Colorado, Missouri, and Texas A and M, all left the Big XII (small X.) There is no Big XII (small X) conference CHUMPionship game any longer. You might recall the
Former Big XII Conference voted as a block only for member institutions.
Kansas State is going to play for the BCS National Championship because they beat West Virginia # 21 BCS Rankings today and Choklahoma ranked # 12 ?
NO CONFERENCE CHUMPIONSHIP.
2 of BCS Top 17 Big XII (small X) with no conference CHUMPionship
______
PAC-12
______
PAC-12 added Utah and Colorado. I mean wow, man.
What are they ranked ? Oh, they’re not ? Sorry about that. Who thought they would be ? The PAC-12 offered all these great schools PAC-12 membership, and they all turned the PAC-12 down, out there in the Land of Fruit and Nuts. At least SEC Texas A and M is ranked # 16 in the BCS Standings today.
1. Texas
2. Oklahoma
3. Texas A and M
4. Oklahoma State
all were to join the PAC-10.
Instead they took :
11. Utah – not ranked
12. Colorado – not ranked
Oh, yeah the PAC-12 is just great with no one caring, no one going to the games, worst attendance in the nation, and no top teams.
So, shall we look at the BCS Rankings ?
# 4 Oregon. Note, if you will please that they are on the Outside Looking-In. # 4. Not # 1, Not # 2, Not even # 3, but # 4. With top team to play in the PAC-12 CHUMPionship Game, there is no BUMP. So, why even play the game ?
SEC invented The SEC Championship Game held annually at the Georgia Dome in Hotlanta. I’ve been to many SEC Championship Games where my team was not involved. I saw # 6 Florida beat # 3 Alabama, for example in 1994 at the Georgia Dome, home of the undefeated Falcons. The game has been held here since for us. 6 million people in this city and the Mecca of SEC Football, we offer up state license plates for every team. Here, you see vols’ tags, crocodile tags, even Auburn war eagle tags, don’t see many Alabama tags here in Atlanta why is that ? Don’t see Georgie tek license plates. Why is that ? Atlanta Falcons – don’t see those either. Why is that ? Because they’re new ? But, you do see the occasional FSU or Clempsum tag here. I still think those states should be required to allow our fans lost in their states to buy tags that say UGA. It’s a good-looking tag : UGA tags. See those everywhere.
We came-out In-Force demanding our football program win the big game, Signature Win.
Check.
The BCS Rankings for the novice who know nothing about BCS Rankings have pitted the top teams in a football game to end the season. They match-up 2 football teams who have SIGNATURE WINS to play each other.
Oregon has no signature win.
Notre Dame has no signature win.
Kansas State has no signature win.
About all any of them can claim is they beat Choklahoma or Southern California, or that they will beat Choklahoma or Southern California.
Southern California is already ranked down there at # 17.
Choklahoma stands-in at # 12
HONK IF YOU’VE BEAT CHOKLAHOMA 2012
HONK IF YOU’VE BEAT SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA 2012
But, don’t look to buy license tags in this state for either.
_______________
GEORGIA DOME
_______________
So, this Mecca of college football 6 million in this city, have The SEC Championship at the Georgia Dome since 1994.
Every team who has repeated and been to the Georgia Dome in consecutive seasons, has Won The SEC Championship Game 1 of the 2 back-to-back appearances.
Of course, Alabama did not appear last season.
Georgia, however, did when Tyrann Mathieu was declared SEC Championship Game Most Valuable Player-of-the-Game Award winner. He’s since been arrested 6 times, although at last report still at LSU going to school. At UGA, he would have been Academically removed.
Drug rehab my hind-end.
So, we return to the Georgia Dome SEC Championship Game, and again no SEC team who appeared back-to-back years failed to Win The SEC Championship Game 1 of those 2 years.
_______________
STATISTICALLY
_______________
That, too, is a factor – an objective prior – that if an SEC team plays in The SEC Championship Game back-to-back, that said team 100 % of the time, has Won The SEC Championship at least 1 of those seasons. Unless of course you are using not Bayesian probability, but propensity you offer-up.
Bayesian probability must take into account objective priors.
__________________
OBJECTIVE PRIORS
__________________
1. SEC 5 of the Top 8 BCS Ranked teams today
2. SEC 7 of the Top 17 BCS Ranked teams today
3. SEC is most-clearly not down, as in 2002
4. SEC Championship Game teams back-to-back win at least 1 always
5. SEC has Won BCS National Championship every time invited
6. SEC has Won BCS National Championship 6 years in row
7. SEC has the largest fanbase in the nation
8. SEC has the highest Recruiting rankings annually
9. SEC has more players in NFL than all the others
10. SEC has highest bowl win percentage than all others
11. SEC has highest BCS Title Game win percentage 100 %
12. Big XII (small X) has the worst each of these objective priors
13. Big XII (small X) has no BUMP CHUMPionship Game
14. PAC-12 has 1 BCS Title appearances and LOST
15. PAC-12 team who has only appearance Oregon, lost to SEC
16. PAC-12 has a 0 % objective prior to win BCS Title Game
17. PAC-12 has a 1 in 28 objective prior to even play in the game
18. PAC-12 has a 0.0357 objective prior to make Title Game
19. Notre Dame has a 0.000 objective prior to make Title Game
20. Notre Dame has a 0 in 28 objective prior to even play in game
21. Notre Dame has the dead last LOSING bowl win % of all-time
22. Notre Dame is always pitted against BETTER teams
23. Notre Dame is always pitted vs better because of their HYPE
24. Notre Dame has objective prior of 15 wins 16 losses bowl games
25. Notre Dame’s game this season have been against no top team
26. Kansas State has objective prior of South Carolina = big -0-
27. Big XII (small x) is the worst bowl record of all conferences ever
28. Beating Choklahoma is NOTHING signifies NOTHING
29. Beating Southern California objective prior lost to everyone 2012
30. Choklahoma & Southern California are only basis for Kansas State, Notre Dame and Oregon
Beating # 17 or # 12 does NOT and NEVER HAS qualified a team for BCS Title Game any of the previous 14 games, objective prior of 0.00 percent. And, further, please watch as # 17 and # 12 both CONTINUE to lose and drop further. Notre Dame fans have voted Southern California up higher than they deserve with no good win themselves, and so have Oregon fans (both of them) and so have Southern California fans who by now know they suck and will continue to lose coming-up as well with their OBJECTIVE PRIORS. Same too for Choklahoma. Why does Choklahoma even have that name ? Because their OBJECTIVE PRIORS is TO ALWAYS LOSE.
Jeff Schultz, the author of this blog, wrote a blog yesterday stating that if Top 10 BCS UGA beat # 2 BCS Florida, that there would be
NO SUCH MONKEY ON OUR BACK.
That, Jeff Schultz further hypothesized, if UGA beat # Florida, that UGA has a
________________
SIGNATURE WIN
________________
Now, we are at the end of the season. And, you see all these areas of OBJECTIVE PRIORS which you have COMPLETELY inserted instead your own personal bias and not to prove or disprove them, but to BASE your calculations on.
When faced with the OBJECTIVE PRIORS all you offer up is well maybe I :
Over-stated easier games for Alabama vs TAMU and LSU
Over-stated harder games for UGA vs Auburn and Ole Miss
Duh.
You also failed to note that the BCS has ALWAYS pitted teams with OBJECTIVE PRIORS of wins vs BCS Top 10 team they beat.
Each poll, and make no mistake about it the “computer polls” are like your
_________________
Bayesian probability
_________________
and, based therefore on the PERSONAL PREFERENCES of individuals who feed their B.S. into computers of which my degree is and of which I have done nothing else since my degree.
Not
__________________
OBJECTIVE PRIORS
__________________
Everyone knows damn well that The BCS 100 % picks an SEC team to play in the BCS National Championship Game 2012, sir.
14 Titles
October 31st, 2012
9:55 am
Alabama will blow out ga in the SEC title game and then beat Notre Dame or K State for title #15–book it. Nick—3 titles in 4 years!!! RTR!!!!
Dawg fan in Mobile, AL
October 31st, 2012
11:10 am
All of this sounds pretty far fetched!!! Just like FL fumbling on the run on the 5 yd line!!
We wont be able to beat Bama… sorry, Bobo wont be able to beat Bama!!!
The worst feeling will be if we make it to Atl and get our shorts handed to us!! My friends are saying that this could be the second year in a row that the 2nd best team in the east went to Atl.
I would really like to hear that Richt will be calling the plays b/c of lack of performance from Bobo.
Murray has got to become more confident and the only way is for more Murray plays called. What I mean is, we have become predictable on what kind of play we’re about to run. We have got to be more unpredictable!!! Like, if we run the ball on 1 and 2nd downs and have a 3rd and long Bobo will pass. If we have 3rd and short Bobo will run up the middle or off tackle.
We need to do something drastic if we get there like put Jon Jones in the back field on a short and goal or on a 4th and short.
Just sayin!! Go you hairy dawgs!!!!
UGA_21
October 31st, 2012
12:04 pm
UGA will win out…. But thats the problem because BAMA will be there. Im a UGA loyalist but lets be for real. The defense finally showed up and shut down an opponent, while Aaron Murray and the offense tried they’re best to lose it. Turnovers and penalties kill you and against BAMA its like walking the green mile. The biggest reason is the match up @ Coach. Saban vs Richt. Edge Saban. While I hope UGA gets crowned kings, they have no margin for error. GO DAWGS!!!!!!!
Thomas Brown
October 31st, 2012
1:23 pm
I don’t think that is so much the question, as it really is : do we get there if we up and beat SEC West ?
Bobo is Not the Problem
October 31st, 2012
1:38 pm
One in a million. Remember, Richt is still the head coach. Count on slipping against either Mississippi, Auburn, or Ga Tech.
FIRE MARK RICHT.
Thought Police
October 31st, 2012
2:00 pm
For those out there who aspire to use probability to solve this issue, see this article on how the experts do it. And yes it is POSSIBLE that there will be a BCS title game without an SEC team in it.
http://outkickthecoverage.com/chances-bama-oregon-kansas-state-and-notre-dame-finish-undefeated-tiny.php
Thomas Brown
October 31st, 2012
3:45 pm
Ok, thanks; I read that URL Link.
All of that assumes the same as a vocal minority on this blog assume, and that is with 5 of the Top 8 BCS Ranked teams, all SEC teams, and 7 of the Top 17, that it is only those teams remaining undefeated who can qualify for the BCS National Chamionship Title Game. Nothing could possibly be further from the Truth.
Guard Dawg
October 31st, 2012
4:06 pm
I just read that link too and it sounded plausible. You said this info is untrue which would mean it is intentionally misleading? I’ve seen data used by these folks on any number of sports shows and websites. They’ve got a pretty good rep. Why can’t an undefeated Oregon play an undefeated ND in the BCS title game if Bama ends up with a loss (or two)? They showed the scenarios pretty well. What do you know that the supposed experts don’t?
Thought Police
October 31st, 2012
4:13 pm
Tom, I’m not following you man. Are you saying the KSU, ND, and Oregon CAN’T get into the Title game or WON’T get into the title game. These are two different things. One is based upon rules and the other opinion. Opinion favors Bama and the SEC, but rules leave this thing wide open.
Thomas Brown
October 31st, 2012
4:52 pm
That’s not what I said Guard Dawg : That it is untrue.
What I said is the premise of this URL Link Model is that in order to qualify for the BCS Title Game, they are assuming that a 1-Loss SEC team with 5 of the Top 8 SEC teams in their own BCS Rankings, would not go while instead a 0-Loss Big XII team would qualify with Big XII having only 2 of the top 17 BCS Ranked teams where The SEC has 7 of the Top 17. Same goes for PAC-12 Oregon, who already is behind the 8-ball being ranked only # 4 in the BCS Rankings BEFORE we play SEC West. Notre Dame, I have already GIFTED the slot to beside SEC.
Thought Police, rules are rules and there are no rules. Facts are facts and the facts are SEC will get 2012 one team in, sir. Did that answer your question to me Thought Police ?
Thought Police
October 31st, 2012
5:01 pm
No you didn’t because the experts clearly allow for possibilities that you do not. They allow for a non-SEC BCS title game. My question is why are they wrong and you are right? You keep repeating the same mantra as if the answer is self-evident. Why aren’t the experts seeing the same things you see and coming to the same conclusions? It doesn’t add up and I tend to side with recognized experts when it comes to complex issues like this.
Uga for president
October 31st, 2012
5:04 pm
What the experts aren’t telling you guys is that the fix is in. There will NEVER be a BCS championship without SEC repersentation. It may not be in the rules but its in the computers. Thomas knows this but he’s trying to be nice and not mess with your heads too much. Get on board for the big win and stop rocking the boat.
Guard Dawg
October 31st, 2012
5:15 pm
I found this blog through a web-search about UGA’s chances of making it to the big game. I liked the scenario that Jeff proposed up-front, enjoyed reading some of the more intellectual probabilities discussions and thought the probabilities web site was really good and accurate (thanks, Thought Police). Don’t care about the other specious arguments or conspiracy theories. Y’all have fun arguing amongst yourselves.
PapaJ
October 31st, 2012
5:36 pm
Hmmm. well although Dawgs are certainly capable of imploding and losing to Ole Miss, Auburn, or Tech, don’t see it happening.
My son-in law is a rabid Tide fan and he worries more about Georgia this year than anyone else in the SEC, because their raw physical talent is equal to anybody — they just don’t always play up to their talent level.
Could they pull a narrow upset over the Tide? Yep. Could they get blown out by 40? Oh yes.
TideRoll
October 31st, 2012
6:39 pm
Bama has so much talent—no way they can lose this year. Saban’s built another machine—this team may be better than the 2011 champion. Bama beats Ga by 20-30 and beats oregon by 10-20. RTR!