LIVE: Will it be a sweep night for Braves over Nationals?
Braves closerCraig Kimbrel has a win and a save in the first two games of the Washington series. (AP photo)
Welcome to the Braves-Washington Nationals series finale that few of us believed would mean anything, and actually we’re still not sure if it means anything, but then again there is this thought: What if it means something?
After consecutive narrow victories Friday (2-1) and Saturday (5-4), the Braves go into tonight’s nationally televised game with a chance for their first series sweep over Washington in three years (Sept. 25-27, 2009). More significant than that historical moment (work with me here) is that the Braves have an opportunity to pull within 5½ games of first place in the National League East after going into this series 8½ back — and, depending on your perspective, seemingly comatose after being swept in Milwaukee.
Now, we learned last season what odds and percentages really mean. (Nothing.) The website Cool Standings calculates the Braves’ chances of winning the East at 1.8 percent going into Sunday (and that has skyrocketed from 0.5 percent before Friday’s game).
But here’s another way to look at it. If the Braves win tonight, they would be 84-63 with 15 games remaining. The National would be 89-57 with 16 left. Even if Washington went only 8-8 in those games, the Braves would need to go 13-2 just to tie them.
Cue Clint Eastwood: “You’ve got to ask yourself one question: Do I feeling lucky?”
Realistically, the rest of the season is mostly about securing a wild card spot, home field for that game and preparing for the postseason. But publicly, nobody in the clubhouse is conceding anything. Actually, nobody seems consumed with first place. It’s an amazingly low-stress clubhouse now, which is the polar opposite from a year ago at this time. I know everybody is burned out on discussing last season’s flameout but the difference in attitude this year is noteworthy.
If the Braves sweep, it would be significant just from the standpoint that the Braves haven’t folded and seem ready for the stretch run. But we’ll see where things go from here.
Tonight’s pitching match-up: Washington will go with its best starter — at least its best pitcher that hasn’t been shut down for the season — Gio Gonzalez (19-7, 2.93). The Braves go with Mike Minor (8-10, 4.42). Only one lineup change tonight: Reed Johnson is in left field tonight for Martin Prado, who is being rested. Brian McCann (knee) is out but he’s available for pinch-hitting duties.
That’s it for now. What are your thoughts on the Braves moving forward?
The cyber-venting lines are open.
By Jeff Schultz
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220 comments Add your comment
ER Steve
September 16th, 2012
11:04 pm
I think the Braves magic number to clinch the wild card will be 9 if they win. Which is lower than the Nats number to clinch the division (11). So it will be easier to win the division than miss out on the playoffs. At least mathematically
Growler
September 16th, 2012
11:04 pm
But JSS, this year is totally different. Last year the big three of the bullpen’s arms were collectively about to fall off from overwork. That is what did them in. Whatever you say about Fredi (and there are a LOT of negatives about him), he has managed the bullpen well this year… and they are not going to collapse again… definitely not with this year’s guaranteed one-game playoff.
Jeff Schultz
September 16th, 2012
11:05 pm
Chad Durbin coming in to try to close out win.
kerryb
September 16th, 2012
11:06 pm
Why did the Braves pick up Lyle Overbay? I haven’t seen him take the bat off his shoulder yet. Seems like he strikes out every at bat looking.
Growler
September 16th, 2012
11:06 pm
ER Steve it’s 8. Do the math. Dodgers can finish with (max) 91 wins. This will be win 84 tonight for Braves with 3 more outs.
bulldogbubba
September 16th, 2012
11:07 pm
Alright time to rub your lucky rabbits foot.GO BRAVES
Hillbilly D
September 16th, 2012
11:09 pm
The rabbit’s foot wasn’t lucky for the rabbit.
ER Steve
September 16th, 2012
11:09 pm
Yes you are right Growler, was looking at ESPN hunt for october and it was showing the number to clinch the first wild card over St. Louis I think.
kerryb
September 16th, 2012
11:09 pm
Well, the Braves will be 5 1/2 games out after this and the Nats play the Dodgers and the Brewers who are playing well. The Braves play the Marlins and the Phillies. The Braves can make up some ground this week.
Bill
September 16th, 2012
11:09 pm
Jeff you didn’t answer..are you doing the Falcons live tomorrow night?
Growler
September 16th, 2012
11:11 pm
btw, I don’t want to call LaRoche another Melky, but 30 home runs??
JSS
September 16th, 2012
11:11 pm
Growler, you ain’t going to get blind umps every night… I’m not negative about the pitching, but that run problem generally gets exposed by teams like the Pirates in the run-up to the playoffs
Roller Coaster Braves
September 16th, 2012
11:11 pm
Man winning the Brewers series would have made tonight even better.
Bronkelliott
September 16th, 2012
11:13 pm
Great win for the Braves! Let’s keep it going. No Monday blues please!
reality
September 16th, 2012
11:15 pm
nice game! good job Minor! We are going to miss CJ next year big time!
Growler
September 16th, 2012
11:15 pm
JSS the Braves offense is at this point maddeningly inconsistent at best… and downright awful far too often. But their pitching from top to bottom can carry them at least to the NLCS. I mean, who’s really hitting that much year? It’s the year of the pitcher.
ER Steve
September 16th, 2012
11:15 pm
Great win. Wasn’t always pretty but have to really credit the Braves approach tonight. Took a lot of pitches, got a lot of base runners and ultimately made Washington pay for their big mistake, Zimmerman’s error. That’s what good teams do. Go Braves!!
Jeff Schultz
September 16th, 2012
11:16 pm
Early game column posted:
http://blogs.ajc.com/jeff-schultz-blog/2012/09/16/braves-sweep-nats-and-this-september-not-like-last-one/
Thomas Brown
September 16th, 2012
11:47 pm
Georgie tek, recipients of 3 consecutive blogs by Jeff Schultz, remains an unranked team while The Georgia Bulldogs passed Oklahoma in the rankings and Southern California when Matt Barkley threw 2 interceptions losing to Stanford to put UGA # 5 in the nation.
Our next 2 opponents are both unranked, like Georgie tek, with Vandie then the vols coming up. Vandie had not won a game all season then beat Presbyterian college last weekend, whom Georgie tek beat earlier this season by a similar score.
8th best baseball team 2012, Atlanta Braves, still do not have a marquee player and have no since Ted Turner quit the team and moved to Montana. We don’t have any money; just play with what you got, our owners told us ever since.
SUSPENDED PLAYERS, we only have 3 for the Vandie game, and then will be down for the vols game only Kolton Houston, whom the NCAA suspended.
We started slowing for the South Atlantic Florida game Saturday, amid all the sell-out disguised by empty seats and witnessed for the 2nd time in as many games our own fans booing our own team, again.
That must really burn those who actually think Oklahoma did something wrong, or we so much better this 2012 season to-date to move us up ahead of Oklahoma in the AP Poll as they have only played 2 games to our 3 now.
Coaches’ Poll finds UGA still worse-ranked than Oklahoma.
Southern California dropped 11 places to # 13 in the AP Poll and 9 spots in the Coaches’ Poll to # 12.
Vandie cannot pass the football, nor stop the run – thus unranked while the vols cannot run the football nor stop the run as I pointed-out all week last week to you.
There are 6 SEC teams ranked.
ACC has 2 ranked football teams. Nice. No wonder you sold-out to Notre Dame to not allow them to join the ACC in Football – the sport they’re most relevant in.
With the win Atlanta Braves are still the # 8 baseball team.
Jeff Schultz
September 17th, 2012
12:06 am
Add some good stuff from Chipper after the game. Here’s link to updated column. Closing commenting here.
http://blogs.ajc.com/jeff-schultz-blog/2012/09/16/braves-sweep-nats-and-this-september-not-like-last-one/