If Braves serious about East, they need to beat Nationals now
You can almost hear Jason Heyward say, "Uh-oh," as he lost two fly balls in sun in Braves' loss. (Curtis Compton/AJC)
Three months ago, when the Braves were swept in their first season series against Washington (by a combined score: 22-10), the thought occurred (by me, anyway) that the Nationals were a nice little story that ultimately would spontaneously combust or do a slow fade into wild-card race oblivion.
That hasn’t happened. In fact, Washington has been in first place for all but 10 of 137 days since playing its season opener, and has been looking down on everybody in the National League East since May 22. (This for a franchise that hadn’t spent even one breakfast in first in five of the previous six years.)
First place used to be an afterthought for the Braves. They wiped their feet on the rest of the division. But they haven’t won a division title since 2005, and their chance to hang another flag — ignoring the misplaced wild-card banner at Turner Field – probably hinges on the next few days.
They open a three-game series at Washington on Monday night. Losing consecutive games to Los Angeles to close a homestand, including Sunday’s 5-0 defeat, wasn’t the jumpstart going to D.C. they were seeking. But the division lifeline likely is going to come down to the six remaining games against the Nationals, anyway, and in particular these three.
When asked if he feels his team needs to win this series, Braves manager Fredi Gonzalez said, “Yes, absolutely. We need to go in there and win two out of three. That wild card stuff is fine and dandy, but it’s a crapshoot. We don’t want to get into a situation with a crapshoot.”
Yes. We all know how that ended a year ago. The Braves found themselves in a crapshoot and were left with only the first syllable.
They’ll still have 38 games remaining after the Washington series. But they were 4½ games out of first before the Nationals had concluded its game against New York Sunday, and that’s all Chipper Jones needed to know.
“Let’s say they win — we’ll be five back,” Jones said. “Lose two out of three, we’ll be six back. Six games is a large margin when you’re talking about a team as good as Washington. They don’t lose a lot of games in a row. They don’t make that many mistakes. If we dig that big of a hole, we’re going to be focusing more on the wild card than the division, and the last thing I want as a player is to starting looking in the rearview mirror at teams chasing us for the wild card. We did that last year.”
We have seen how good the Braves can be. They went 18-5 in a recent stretch. Their starting pitching stabilized. Their offense began producing 6, 7, 9 runs a game with regularity.
But we’ve seen in the last two games how quickly they can look anemic. The Dodgers won games 6-2 and 5-0 over the weekend.
Jones again: “We’re seeing some guys with that look on their face at the plate – they’re scuffling.”
The problem Sunday wasn’t just offense. Jason Heyward lost two fly balls in the sun in the eighth and ninth innings, both opening the door to runs, when L.A. blew open a 1-0 lead.
Gonzalez also may have contributed to the unraveling. He pulled starter Mike Minor before the eighth inning, even though Minor had allowed just one run and five hits, and he later said he felt fine. Gonzalez said he was looking for a certain “match-up” (reliever Chad Durbin vs. pinch hitter Juan Uribe, who was hitting for starter Chad Billingsley).
It’s called overthinking. Why pull a starter unless he feels gassed?
Maybe it wouldn’t have made a difference. The Braves didn’t score a run.
That will need to change against a team the Braves not only are chasing, but one they’ve had problems with. They’re 4-8 against the Nationals. They had won seven straight series before this weekend, dating back to a four-game split with Washington.
Despite the Nationals’ general miserable existence before 2012 (..435 winning percentage in seven years), the Braves were 64-63 against them. At least now Washington is good, so the Braves have an excuse. But that will be of little consolation if they find themselves in a wild card race again.
By Jeff Schultz
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124 comments Add your comment
eastbound and down
August 20th, 2012
7:09 am
JS,
i can file this BS column with all the rest you write. what was the column in April or May? the Braves have to beat the Philies to be a legitiimate threat in the east. by the way, as far as the wife beater Cox goes, Leibrandt in game 6 of the 91 WS.
rc35
August 20th, 2012
7:36 am
If this were last season, we’d be OK. I think this team could win a legitimate Wild Card series. However, when the whole thing rides on a one-game qualifier for the two “Wild Card” teams (won’t Bud Selig EVER retire before he messes up everything in baseball?), I don’t like those odds at all.
The Braves have played excellent baseball at times, but when their hitting goes cold, it might as well be January in the Yukon. I’m hoping for the best, but hoping without logical support for that hope.
Thomas Brown
August 20th, 2012
7:41 am
Does anyone really think this baseball team is going to win the play-offs, weak as we are up the middle and not one single go-to hitter in the line-up ?
That would be like thinking the Georgia Bulldogs are going to beat top teams this season, when we haven’t either in years and years and years.
Longtimefan
August 20th, 2012
8:06 am
Again, some perspective is in order to balance the sky is falling/epic collapse is imminent crowd. Yes, the Braves just lost 2/3 to the Dodgers and a sweep would have been nice. It would be nice to have won 100 ball games by now and have the division sewn up, but this is baseball and if you hang around .600 for the year you pretty much have a ticket to the dance. BTY, the Braves still have the fifth best record in baseball, which for the numerically challenged out there means 25 teams have a worse record. Not bad. They have the fourth best team ERA in the NL and possibly the best bullpen. That runs contrary to naysayer comments above. They have the third best offense in the NL- runs scored, that’s the name of the game. And the best defense in the NL, by multiple measures. If you didn’t know better you would think we were the Astros based the negative comments above. And all that talk of a collapse like last year, on what basis? A 2 game losing streak? Smell something in the air? Been playing with the Tarot cards again?
Thomas Brown
August 20th, 2012
8:29 am
Ticket to the dance.
That is all that Braves and Bulldogs’ Football fans can strive for.
It doesn’t take Tarot cards to know that neither the Braves nor the Bulldogs have an offense.
Delbert D.
August 20th, 2012
8:45 am
“If the Braves are serious.” I don’t like the premise of the article. Washington has superior pitching and equivalent hitting. Getting mentally tough and spiking the adrenaline to greater than usual strength doesn’t work in baseball like it does in football, with the possible exception of throwing at batters and taking out infielders and catchers on hard slides to alter the outcome.
Baseball is a lot of round bat, round ball, anything can happen stuff, and thinking, “I know he thinks that I think he’ll be sitting on the fastball, but really expecting the changeup, so I’ll throw the fastball” scenarios. Yes, Chipper can bring that laser-like focus and get a base hit 30 percent of the time. Getting those 30 percents to occur at the right time is the tricky part, and Nationals are playing exactly the same game.
NCC-1701
August 20th, 2012
8:54 am
Mr. Schultz,
What do you think will happen to management and the team if the following situations occur.
A. The Braves get one of the wild-card births, however lose in the one game playoffs
B. The Braves stumble and fall like last year
Steven Lemon
August 20th, 2012
8:57 am
Try as I might, I can’t convince Jayson Heyward nor Dan Uggla that trying to pull an outside fastball into the corner is NEXT TO impossible, Chipper Jones went into his recent hot streak when HE rediscovered that, but it seems nobody else on that team is aware.
And no matter how little support Mike Minor gets, the one fact that remains is that the homerun ball is his one big weakness.
I’m about ready to sell my majority interest in this team and add to my New York Yankees holdings.
A least with the Yankees you get a good game win or lose and no matter how far the Yankees are behind in a game, as Yogi says, “It ain’t over ’till it’s over”.
old scout
August 20th, 2012
9:00 am
The AJC writers should get quotes after a loss from the guys who played the game. I really don’t care what Chipper has to say when all he did was sit on his butt and watch. There is a lot of criticism of Uggla, but the guy hurting the team more is McCann. He is totally lost at the plate (maybe should stop listening to Dad and brother), and not very good on defense. They are a better team with Ross catching.
No Flag Since Lemke
August 20th, 2012
9:08 am
The absolute key to not winning this series and winning it was that freak play involving David Ross in game two where he dives out of the way of ball four and the damned thing ticks his bat and the Dodgers catcher discovers it in his glove. Take that play away and you have a two run lead and the bases still loaded against a guy who couldn’t throw a strike to save himself.
Delbert D.
August 20th, 2012
9:10 am
The headline in the Washington Post this morning is “Why losing to the Braves this week could come back to haunt the Nats.” Another mystery that needs really deep investigation.
Sammy
August 20th, 2012
9:12 am
BMac is hurt. He shouldn’t even be playing. Just a shame to watch this team crumble again. We’ll see after this week.
Thomas Brown
August 20th, 2012
9:19 am
Braves ? Compare Braves to Washington ? Why not admit truth that Braves lack :
an Adrian Beltre
a Josh Hamilton
an Elvis Andrus
a Derek Jeter
a Curtis Granderson
a Mark Teixeira
a Robinson Cano
a Brandon Phillips
a Yadier Molina
a Carlos Beltran
a Matt Holliday
In fact, if you get right down to it, the Braves only have 1 player listed on any leaderboard and that is Craig Kimbrel who has played exactly 45 innings all season long out of our over 1,081 innnings.
Give me a break. Atlanta Braves. We do not compete for the top players here in Atlanta and have not since Ted Turner left town.
Rick
August 20th, 2012
9:36 am
JSS……every one of your post Bash the hime team……you are tired…..juat go away!
Backdoor Slider
August 20th, 2012
9:38 am
GONZALEZ
Jeff, thanks for mentioning the Gonzalez role in the game unraveling of yesterday.
So true. So very true — though Fredi will never admit it.
I sincerely hope this offseason brings a needed managerial change.
Taylor Wooten
August 20th, 2012
9:42 am
They aint catching the Nationals…unless they make some changes. Sit Uggla. Hes a liability..at the plate and the field.
Thomas Brown
August 20th, 2012
9:43 am
As long as fans run in here and say how great we are, you are not going to get any changes for the Braves or the Bulldogs.
PMC
August 20th, 2012
10:11 am
J Hey needs a new deal for sunglasses sponsorship. He never looks comfortable catching fly balls.
GET ON IT OAKLEY!
Fats OKelly
August 20th, 2012
10:26 am
40 games left…………….Plenty of time left to catch Washington. This season is so long, you have enough time to catch anybody. Bones and Heyward and Freeman will go on a streak now. Watch
T DOG
August 20th, 2012
10:29 am
The Braves better get serious. They don’t want to get into a 1 game playoff with the Pirates and that lineup.
Hillbilly D
August 20th, 2012
10:41 am
The way Bud Selig has screwed things up, all you have to do is get a wild card. After you do that, the wild card playoff will be tough because it’s one game and anything can happen in one game. If a team can get past that, it just becomes a matter of which team’s top 3 starters get hot. Starting pitching will win it, 9 years out of 10 and you don’t have to have the “best” pitchers, just pitchers who get on a roll at the right time.
Davey Sprocket
August 20th, 2012
10:55 am
@longtimefan – quit trotting out stats that are misleading, dude. The Braves are FAR from teh best defensive team in the NL. They do not get to many balls in the infield – hence the 9th and 10th NL rankings in Assists, Putouts, total chances. Nats are top-3 in all of these. Even I could catch balls – IF I could get to them.
The Braves have some decent balance, and some obvious holes – yes it is possible for both to be true. It tends to account for the final results – behind a few good teams, and ahead of the bad ones. How they stack up against the GOOD teams is what is important, now, and it does not bode well that some of the bats are slumping horribly, and some pitchers are showing fatigue or worse, simply being figured out. The manager adds ZERO to the chances of success.
All the talk is how simple it will be to spend the Chipper/Bourn/Lowe money on – a 3B, a new 2B, a pitching ace and a power LF. See how easy that was?! Focus on today, first.
Peter
August 20th, 2012
11:55 am
Well Mike pitched great again… he is a hard luck guy not getting any run support.
Uggla, another real Wren mistake……. I would take Infante back in a heart beat for this guy !
JSS
August 20th, 2012
12:03 pm
Bobby did everything possible to “try” to blow that final 1/4 of 1991 miracle… From not realizing that Smoltz was his best pitcher to always giving us those bizarre sequence of pinch hitters… Thank goodness for Fat Boy Juan B and Pena, saved their butts… That and Justice sending a Rob Dibble (early John Rocker with at least a filter) fast ball somewhere near Covington KY!
BillEGoat
August 20th, 2012
12:10 pm
The Nationals are better than the Braves by a slight margin in every area except the bullpen. I give credit to the Braves, though. With Uggla and McCann having the seasons they are having, it is a credit to the club that they have won this many games. It would take a miracle for the Braves to win the Eastern Division title. The race is going to be for the wild card, snd THAT is no sure thing. The Nats and the Braves are going to be fighting it out in the NL East for the next several years. Both teams have good young players, but the Nats have an advantage in payroll.
Joey
August 20th, 2012
12:31 pm
Congrats, JS.
Obviously the pressure from your column a couple of months ago moved Billy Payne to admit 2 women in Augusta National.
OldFan
August 20th, 2012
12:33 pm
Braves better step up now and make the run for the Division title. This team does not need to get into a one game play-off with anyone. Braves have consistently shown that they fold against tough pitching. They’ll see the best in a one shot game.
Dennis Green
August 20th, 2012
12:42 pm
The Brave’s are who we think they are and the Dodger’s should have swept them but they were let off the hook!
Bobby Cox
August 20th, 2012
12:44 pm
I might have Blown a Few but Fredi has Choked on the Big ones!
Freddie Freeswing
August 20th, 2012
12:46 pm
It looks like Freddie can’t see again……….please sit him a few games and make him get new contacts!
Knat's
August 20th, 2012
12:49 pm
The Nat’s are like a million annoying bugs………they just won’t go away and keep coming back at you with more tenacity!…………….Good Luck to the Brave’s in just winning 1 game in this series!
Longtimefan
August 20th, 2012
12:49 pm
Davey Sprocket:You need to learn the facts before you pop off. Fact: Braves lead the NL in not only fewest errors but in a more encompassing advanced defensive metric called UZR. I’m not going to explain it to you but you can go to fangraphs.com and read all about it, as well the Braves leading the majors in UZR/150. BTW, the Nats are 7th in MLB in UZR, significantly behind the Braves. Saying a team is better defensively based on # of putouts, total chances etc is ludicrous. Go to some baseball sites and do some reading then state your case. You won’t have one.
And to Thomas Brown-last time I looked, what mattered was the total number of runs scored by the TEAM, not individual players. Look how many players the Braves have with 50 plus RBIs-just about the entire lineup. I’m not going to look it up but they are near the very top in MLB in this category and this leads to a more balanced attack.Again, the Braves are third in NL in batting stat-ie runs scored. You cannot dispute that.
joe
August 20th, 2012
1:02 pm
if the braves pay McCann big money this off season they even stupider than i thought.
joe
August 20th, 2012
1:02 pm
if the braves pay McCann big money this off season they even stupider than i thought.
Longtimefan
August 20th, 2012
1:32 pm
To the Dude who questions the BRAVES defensive superiority, one more stat-DRS(defensive runs saved). For 2012 as a team the Braves are plus53 which puts them top in the NL and second to only the Blue Jays in MLB. The Nats are minus13. Just sayin. I know all these metrics and numbers are soooo difficult to understand but I believe I will put my trust in the many experts whose life work it is to evaluate MLB players skills in an objective fashion rather than “going with my gut” or saying “I think Heyward and Uggla suck in the field because I played a little high school ball and I watch them on TV every night while sipping a cold one on my couch”.
DetroitBraves
August 20th, 2012
1:35 pm
@Longtimefan, good stuff. The Braves outfield may actually be the best in baseball when you consider offense and defense. In fact, once you get past McCutchen in Pittsburgh, Heyward is quitely putting together an MVP type season when you factor in his plus defense in right and his tremendous baserunning. And they’ve put up these stats without their best defender on the infield playing much at all, Andrelton Simmons. And it’s a good thing since the starting staff tends to pitch to contact quite a bit.
As for the Nats, I figured early on that they were improved but would fade back to the fringes of the wildcard chase at best. I’m still looking for that starting pitching to hit a wall any day now but so far they have not. And this is with Werth, Morse, Ramos, Desmond, Zimmerman and Storen all spending time on the DL at some point, several of them significant time. After not contending for so long, it would be a fun club to pull for if they were in someone else’s division.
Jim Pierce
August 20th, 2012
1:48 pm
Winning two of three won’t get it……. If we have ANY shot, we need to sweep this series.
The Wood
August 20th, 2012
2:07 pm
Unless the Nationals fall apart it’s over, but we are good enough to go throught the Wild Card and eventually face the Nationals in the NLCS
Jim Pierce
August 20th, 2012
2:20 pm
McCann and Uggla MUST find their mojo also. We are entering this series with those two, plus Prado, looking lost at the plate.
Supes
August 20th, 2012
2:31 pm
The Nats have 7 games left against the Cards and 3 against the Dodgers…that’s 10 games against some of the best competition in the NL…stop making out this 3 gamer to be “make it or break it”…close to 40 games left (I think it’s 36-38?) season can still turn around. Nationals could CHOKE or go on a skit…if not well we’ll have to be content with the stupid Wild Card spot…
DawgDad
August 20th, 2012
2:39 pm
Over the past four seasons (counting this one) the Braves have essentially been treading water as a wild card contender (86 to projected 93 wins this season) while working some kids into the lineup and rotation, and, Dan Uggla non-withstanding, patiently waiting for the calendar to turn over some bad contracts. They lost a crucial series yesterday with their $13.5 million-per team leader catching a breather, and they lost the day before behind their reclamation project sixth starter. The issue isn’t whether or not the Braves are a good team, it’s whether or not they are good enough at this point.
Scoots
August 20th, 2012
2:40 pm
Not worried – 40 games is still plenty of times to catch the Nationals, IF they take care of business against them in their 2 remaining series. Also the Nats are shutting down Strasburg after another few starts, so that will surely set them back a couple/few games in the standings down the stretch.
Or, if you like to hang on every win or loss like it encapsulates the season, then the Braves have lost two in a row and are clearly f*cked.
DetroitBraves
August 20th, 2012
2:49 pm
My understanding is that the Braves also have a less than ideal television contract. With the stadium often half-empty, a bad, long-term T.V. deal, and dispassionate ownership the future may be tough sledding against a fairly rich, and competitive Eastern division. Heck, even the Marlins spent this offseason after opening their new stadium – though they quickly divested some of that. This Braves team may be good enough, though probably not strong enough at the top to be a favorite, but going forward I would like to see something more inspired than a sacrifice bunt or a projectable, backend starter in the first round of the draft. Ted’s money is long since gone. The current dynamic needs to shift if they are to continue to contend in this division. I know, I know, enjoy the now…….
Charles
August 20th, 2012
3:16 pm
Winning the division and/or beating the Nationals in the playoffs is important if the Braves want to re-sign Bourn. There was an excellent article by Mike Wise of the Washington Post recently that commented on the “special relationship” between Scott Boras and Nats GM Mike Rizzo. Scotty has a lot of clients on the Nats Roster — Strasbourg, Harper, Werth… and he has been feeding players to Rizzo — that’s the main reason they will shut down Strasbourg after he hits 160-180 innings. If the Braves want a realistic shot at keeping Bourn, they have to beat the Nats. Otherwise, you will see Mikey playing against us next year.
Bartles....Not James
August 20th, 2012
4:03 pm
Need to take a broom to those dirty nats and Sweep Em
Pennant race.....yum!
August 20th, 2012
4:06 pm
Nobody wants a one game, 50-50 chance in a wild card game……Only unless you’re the second eligible wild card team……
who?
August 20th, 2012
4:09 pm
and the phillies might make a run for 1st…..hehehe
who?
August 20th, 2012
4:11 pm
Imagine all the tie possibilities for divisions and wild cards? A bunch of one game playoffs, it’s staggering……Bud Selig has really dipped his hand in the cookie jar now.
Carl Spackler
August 20th, 2012
4:14 pm
“I don’t think the hard stuffs comin down for a while.”
Sam
August 20th, 2012
4:38 pm
Say the Braves end up winning the first wild card spot, but lose the play-in game to the second wild card team… do you think they will still put up a banner in leftfield?
I know I wouldn’t.