Braves look good now, but what can we expect next?
Kris Medlen represented another good sign for the Braves with five solid innings before the rain delay. (AP photo)
(Updated: midnight)
On this day a year ago, the Braves were 17 games over .500 (63-46), continued their ascent to 26 over in late August, flashing the look of a legitimate contender, and muted almost every remaining skeptic when even Dan Uggla rediscovered the art of hitting (the assumption being that his 33-game hitting streak had followed the laying of hands). Then came the fall.
After the Braves’ 7-1 win over the Miami Marlins Tuesday night, giddiness abounded once again. They have won seven straight. They are a season-best 59-44. Everybody is hitting. (OK. Not Dan Uggla. The hands thing wore off.)
So. Is it safe now to project something special?
Uh … no.
There is a lot to like about this team. They score runs. They deliver timely hits. They rank second to St. Louis in the National League in runs scored. The overall team batting average (.257) doesn’t look great, but it’s up from last season (.243) and doesn’t reflect the strength of the everyday lineup: from Chipper Jones (.316) to Martin Prado (.302) to Michael Bourn (.292) to Freddie Freeman (.279, 63 RBIs) to Jason Heyward (.309 since June; 17 homers overall) to the suddenly hot Brian McCann (.309, 9 homers and 21 RBIs in the last 19).
(Not Uggla. He’s at .208. And now, we move on.)
But last year taught us something about assumptions. When a roster without a long resume for winning loses 18 of 26 down the stretch and gets swept in a three-game series at home to end the season to miss the playoffs, it’s best to remain cautious. We can’t yet know if that team is this team. We can’t be certain that this team is immune to a tailspin.
“I feel really good about this team,” Jones said in a near-empty clubhouse after most of his teammates had left for batting practice. “I like the way we’re playing right now. I like the makeup of this ballclub. Is it enough? The next two months will tell us. But I like our chances as we sit here at the end of July.”
The Braves now sit only 2½ games behind Washington in the National League East. Assume nothing. Consider the rest of the season a flashing yellow light.
The good is the offense and the bullpen. The uncertainty is the starting rotation, from which everything flows. The trade-deadline acquisition of starter Paul Maholm from the Chicago Cubs was a solid move, even if not at the level that Ryan Dempster or obviously Zack Greinke would’ve been. Maholm’s career ERA with Chicago and Pittsburgh is a mediocre 4.30, but he has been among baseball’s hottest pitchers lately (5-0, 1.00 ERA in his last seven starts).
“I feel like the front office tried to make a humongous move and they couldn’t make it work,” David Ross said. “They were trying to get a shutdown starter. I don’t know if you would put Paul Maholm in that category, but his numbers lately are great.”
General manager Frank Wren’s best move this season also has been his cheapest move: He stole Ben Sheets from a little league team.
“He has given us one more guy we could trust on a nightly basis,” Wren said.
That’s said, Sheets somewhat illustrates the questions about the rotation. He has returned from two years out of baseball with three great starts (one earned run in 18 innings). But can we expect that to continue? If you lined up the team’s starters by perceived order of strength, it might go something like this: Tim Hudson, Sheets, Maholm, and then Mike Minor and Tommy Hanson (who just went on the disabled list) in either order.
Kris Medlen reaffirmed Tuesday night that he is a viable option. He threw five strong innings, allowing only one run and four hits and needing only 57 pitches before the rain started, causing a 1 hour, 53-minute delay. He was done for the night.
The strength of the starting pitching will cause a ripple effect with the bullpen, which last year wore out down the stretch. That, along with injuries to Hanson and Jair Jurrjens and a blur of hitting slumps led to the slide.
“What happened last September will pay dividends at some point,” Jones said. He paused before adding with a slight smile, “Whether it’s this year or years down the road remains to be seen. It was kind of a perfect storm of bad things that happened to us and led to our demise. The chance of those things happening again are slim. But we’re not going to take anything for granted.”
That’s probably wise.
By Jeff Schultz
Tell us what you think about the site
Customer Care »
Vacation stops, manage subscriptions and more
AJC Services
Sections
Other Editions
Visitor Agreement | Privacy Statement
© 2013 The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
245 comments Add your comment
IAmHereToChop
August 1st, 2012
12:25 am
Too all the idiots Braves fans here. DEMPSTER IS GOING TO THE TEXAS RANGERS….I REPEAT DEMPSTER IS GOING TO THE TEXAS RANGERS.
DEMPSTER TO RANGERS DEMPSTER TO RANGERS DEMPSTER TO RANGERS!! GOT IT!!
valdosta native
August 1st, 2012
12:58 am
Where is my Moutrie Boy?? What are you thoughts my friend??
valdosta native
August 1st, 2012
1:01 am
Who (Ju) Who (Ju) Who Wholio (Julio!!!) Where is our 43 year old first baseman at? What is Wren thinking….oh he got Bautista. Nevermind.
Thomas Brown
August 1st, 2012
5:39 am
What is all this about the Atlanta Braves, Jeff Schultz ?
___________________________
WHAT ABOUT THE OLYMPICS ?
___________________________
Gabby Douglas is the star of the Olympics for me. Shorter than her teammates, she has it. I love watching Gabby Douglas get her physical attributes on display in front of the whole world watching. Exciting to see her interview last night on the non-live again in 2012 NBC, and watch her infectious smile light-up the big screens. You tell me who is the star of these Olympics, with those piercing eyes, physique, and graceful boundless height she generates as she flies over the competition 2012 ? When interviewed, you get the full-brunt of her determination and realization of her gifts for all of us to enjoy.
Locally, not that the AJ-C can bother to put it up where to watch live in 2012 the XXX Olympiad, or indeed what even channels to watch. Are not most of us on Comcast ? Not plugging them, being honest about it. We have channel 789 and 788. We have, of course, channel 806. We have channel 830 and 836 and 845 and channel 872. Why is that so hard to tell everyone ? And, what actual events on taped-delay in August of 2012 do we get on all these channels trying to find what we might be interested in of the most-important SPORTS EVENT in YEARS ? Too much to ask.
Then, of course, there is the controversy having witnessed how much worse Russia and Romania gymnasts are than our own, what in the world makes anyone think that if 3 of the top gymnasts in the world are ALL from The United States of America, that as Béla Károlyi says, that we cannot witness them in the Olympiad XXX Finals ?
Ridiculous coverage of NBC again and of Olympiad XXX trying to force down our throats that only the Conference Champions should be allowed in the BCS 4-Team Play-Offs replacing the previous BCS 2-Team Play-Offs ? How can college football get it right and the Olympics Committee 2012 get it wrong that only 2 can come from 1 nation ? Look, this is 2012, show me where to find the lousy streaming video on my smart phone and technology of 2012, and get over yourselves that Romania 7 points behind Gabby Douglas’ Efforts and Russia 5 points behind us, HAS to have up to 2 of their competitors compete when they are DOMINATED by our little 16-year old girls ?
____________________________
GO GABBY DOUGLAS, MY HERO
____________________________
Thomas Brown
August 1st, 2012
5:39 am
What is all this about the Atlanta Braves, Jeff Schultz ?
___________________________
WHAT ABOUT THE OLYMPICS ?
___________________________
Gabby Douglas is the star of the Olympics for me. Shorter than her teammates, she has it. I love watching Gabby Douglas get her physical attributes on display in front of the whole world watching. Exciting to see her interview last night on the non-live again in 2012 NBC, and watch her infectious smile light-up the big screens. You tell me who is the star of these Olympics, with those piercing eyes, physique, and graceful boundless height she generates as she flies over the competition 2012 ? When interviewed, you get the full-brunt of her determination and realization of her gifts for all of us to enjoy.
Thomas Brown
August 1st, 2012
5:40 am
Locally, not that the AJ-C can bother to put it up where to watch live in 2012 the XXX Olympiad, or indeed what even channels to watch. Are not most of us on Comcast ? Not plugging them, being honest about it. We have channel 789 and 788. We have, of course, channel 806. We have channel 830 and 836 and 845 and channel 872. Why is that so hard to tell everyone ? And, what actual events on taped-delay in August of 2012 do we get on all these channels trying to find what we might be interested in of the most-important SPORTS EVENT in YEARS ? Too much to ask.
Then, of course, there is the controversy having witnessed how much worse Russia and Romania gymnasts are than our own, what in the world makes anyone think that if 3 of the top gymnasts in the world are ALL from The United States of America, that as Béla Károlyi says, that we cannot witness them in the Olympiad XXX Finals ?
Ridiculous coverage of NBC again and of Olympiad XXX trying to force down our throats that only the Conference Champions should be allowed in the BCS 4-Team Play-Offs replacing the previous BCS 2-Team Play-Offs ? How can college football get it right and the Olympics Committee 2012 get it wrong that only 2 can come from 1 nation ? Look, this is 2012, show me where to find the lousy streaming video on my smart phone and technology of 2012, and get over yourselves that Romania 7 points behind Gabby Douglas’ Efforts and Russia 5 points behind us, HAS to have up to 2 of their competitors compete when they are DOMINATED by our little 16-year old girls ?
____________________________
GO GABBY DOUGLAS, MY HERO
____________________________
Thomas Brown
August 1st, 2012
5:41 am
Then, of course, there is the controversy having witnessed how much worse Russia and Romania gymnasts are than our own, what in the world makes anyone think that if 3 of the top gymnasts in the world are ALL from The United States of America, that as Béla Károlyi says, that we cannot witness them in the Olympiad XXX Finals ?
Ridiculous coverage of NBC again and of Olympiad XXX trying to force down our throats that only the Conference Champions should be allowed in the BCS 4-Team Play-Offs replacing the previous BCS 2-Team Play-Offs ? How can college football get it right and the Olympics Committee 2012 get it wrong that only 2 can come from 1 nation ? Look, this is 2012, show me where to find the lousy streaming video on my smart phone and technology of 2012, and get over yourselves that Romania 7 points behind Gabby Douglas’ Efforts and Russia 5 points behind us, HAS to have up to 2 of their competitors compete when they are DOMINATED by our little 16-year old girls ?
____________________________
GO GABBY DOUGLAS, MY HERO
____________________________
Thomas Brown
August 1st, 2012
5:42 am
Locally, not that the AJ-C can bother to put it up where to watch live in 2012 the XXX Olympiad, or indeed what even channels to watch. Are not most of us on Comcast ? Not plugging them, being honest about it. We have channel 789 and 788. We have, of course, channel 806. We have channel 830 and 836 and 845 and channel 872. Why is that so hard to tell everyone ? And, what actual events on taped-delay in August of 2012 do we get on all these channels trying to find what we might be interested in of the most-important SPORTS EVENT in YEARS ? Too much to ask.
Then, of course, there is the controversy having witnessed how much worse Russia and Romania gymnasts are than our own, what in the world makes anyone think that if 3 of the top gymnasts in the world are ALL from The United States of America, that as Béla Károlyi says, that we cannot witness them in the Olympiad XXX Finals ?
Thomas Brown
August 1st, 2012
5:43 am
Ridiculous coverage of NBC again and of Olympiad XXX trying to force to us that only the Conference Champions should be allowed in the BCS 4-Team Play-Offs replacing the previous BCS 2-Team Play-Offs ? How can college football get it right and the Olympics Committee 2012 get it wrong that only 2 can come from 1 nation ? Look, this is 2012, show me where to find the lousy streaming video on my smart phone and technology of 2012, and get over yourselves that Romania 7 points behind Gabby Douglas’ Efforts and Russia 5 points behind us, HAS to have up to 2 of their competitors compete when they are DOMINATED by our little 16-year old girls ?
____________________________
GO GABBY DOUGLAS, MY HERO
____________________________
Thomas Brown
August 1st, 2012
5:44 am
Ridiculous coverage of NBC again and of Olympiad XXX trying to force to us that only the Conference Champions should be allowed in the BCS 4-Team Play-Offs replacing the previous BCS 2-Team Play-Offs ? How can college football get it right and the Olympics Committee 2012 get it wrong that only 2 can come from 1 nation ? Look, this is 2012, show me where to find the lousy streaming feed on my smart phone and technology of 2012, and get over yourselves that Romania 7 points behind Gabby Douglas’ Efforts and Russia 5 points behind us, HAS to have up to 2 of their competitors compete when they are beat by our little 16-year old girls ?
____________________________
GO GABBY DOUGLAS, MY HERO
____________________________
Draggin' Fly
August 1st, 2012
6:36 am
Thomas Brown – I let my wife fill me in on the gymnastics results and the girly drama.I don’t come here expecting Schultz to do it.
Thomas Brown
August 1st, 2012
6:51 am
No, far better to write article after article after article on the about # 15 professional baseball team.
________________________________________
NOTHING ON GABBY DOUGLAS IN OLYMPICS
________________________________________
NCC-1701
August 1st, 2012
7:22 am
FANTASTIC ARTICLE.
I was thinking this the other day and told myself not to get too hyped up yet. We all know what occurred last year and although I am excited about this year I am going to keep my emotions in check until after September lol.
Peachtree John
August 1st, 2012
7:27 am
Now that the trade deadline has passed, how do we get something for Hanson while he is a decent record. I have preached for years that he needs to go. Let someone else deal with his shortfalls. God bless him. Possibly he can flourish elsewhere.
Dan Uggla Devoid
August 1st, 2012
7:28 am
If Uggla had hit .280 all those games in April & May when he went mostly 0-4 every game the Braves would be at least 5-7 games up in division.
Dan Uggla Devoid
August 1st, 2012
7:29 am
Enter your comments hereHanson isnt going anywhere. He has some type of undisclosed injury. He will be dominant once healthy.
jfreak13713
August 1st, 2012
7:39 am
Don’t like to see anyone hurt but glad Hanson is not going to start for a couple of weeks! Other than that the team looks good and we’ll just have to wait and see. Their pitching is average and history does not support playoff teams with average pitching.
Danny
August 1st, 2012
7:45 am
You would boo the cure for cancer. I wish someone would lay hands on you and carry you to a different newspaper. Just a prick.
Phils fan
August 1st, 2012
7:46 am
hate it. but i hope atl are the eventual 2012 div champ. been a long time coming. love to have the nat go out in a 1 game p.o.
Speedy Gonzalez
August 1st, 2012
8:40 am
Our bench improved with the addition of Reed Johnson, so now we have him & Ross. Diaz, Hinske, & Wilson are done after this year, maybe before the year is out, they stink out loud, were stuck with Uggly’s huge contract so dont even go there. Pastor or Janish, who should be the backup when Simmons comes back???
Ken Stallings
August 1st, 2012
9:37 am
Jeff,
In analyzing the 2012 Atlanta Braves, don’t you think it would be preferrable to look at the differences when talking about the potential for the same outcome?
There are three major differences in the 2012 team versus the 2011 team. They are:
1. 2012 team’s vastly better offense. Greg Walker has earned every nickle of his paycheck this season! His approach to hitting and his willingness to employ multiple hitting instructors (including Chipper Jones) has rejuvinated Jason Heyward’s career. Heyward is raking the ball to all fields now, with significant power to all fields. This is what he did his rookie season. Some of it no doubt is finally emerging from the injury suffered mid-way in 2011. However, I think a lot of it is better hitting instruction. The same is true for Freddie Freeman who is hitting better than last year’s rookie campaign which itself was a very good year. Michael Bourn playing a full season and providing perhaps the best leadoff hitting in the NL is clearly a reason. Chipper is having an excellent final season. Overall, the Braves are scoring a lot more runs now and this is directly influencing the second major difference.
2. Bullpen innings and appearances are way down from last season. Kimbrel appeared in 79 games last year, Venters 85, O’Flaherty 78. At this point were are already 63% through the season, and the situation is vastly different. Kimbrel has only 40 appearances so far, which works out to just 63 for a full season. The reason is the offense is scoring more runs and allowing Fredi Gonzalez to rest his bullpen more. Chad Durbin in middle relief is the innings workhorse with 50 appearances (79 for a full season). Here are the rest of the numbers: Medlen 39 (61), O’Flaherty 43 (68), Venters 44 (69). Look at those appearance numbers and across the board it is a 20% reduction in appearances and that means the bullpen should be strong for the full season vice last season’s September/October collapse.
3. Starting pitcher injuries: do not forget that last season the Braves lost Hudson, Jurrjens, and Hanson to injuries. That is a huge blow that no team can endure without a serious loss in wins. It is another reason why the bullpen in 2011 got abused. Injuries to your starting rotation is always a risk and consequently the great equalizer in baseball. But, even in this risk the Braves are better prepared. In 2011, the Braves were seeing the implosion of Derek Lowe. They also went with the rookie Mike Minor who had to learn how to pitch. The 2012 team is enjoying the benefits as Minor is starting to pitch very well. The 2012 setback was to Beachy, but the Braves traded for Maholm and got Sheets. The starting rotation is deeper this season than it was last season.
The 2012 team is different that 2011 for these reasons. That should have been a central focus in your column.
Moy
August 1st, 2012
9:41 am
Moylan will be there soon to save the day……if his arm doesnt fall off. In Gwinnett now.
Damon Evans
August 1st, 2012
10:01 am
Where’s all of the white women?
Jurrjens SUCKS
August 1st, 2012
10:04 am
JJ stinks!!!! He has turned into another Kawasucki clone…..Cry Baby Whiner – DFA him or Non Tender him this Fall…..He is a waste of money and a roster spot.
TB
August 1st, 2012
10:13 am
It kind of reminds me of the Bielecki/Berryhill trade we got from the Cubs back in the early nineties. That work out pretty well!
smooth
August 1st, 2012
10:20 am
I can see why one of the above comments is called Jarhead!
Paul
August 1st, 2012
10:30 am
Maholm could come up big. Or not. But he’s been really good of late, so I guess there’s hope. If Sheets stays healthy and continues pitching well, and Hanson comes off th DL strong, we should be just fine. Maybe Uggla will get hot again (and maybe the Easter Bunny will leave me some big bucks…)
Scoots
August 1st, 2012
10:58 am
Ken Stallings – solid points.
It will be interesting to see if Jurrjens can become a solid inning-eating reliever. H did fine last night – maybe he will thrive in this new role and actually be of use to the team after all. I’m also interested to see if Medlin pitches really well again on his next start and makes it hard to pull him from the rotation. If he continues to do well, I’d rather see him in there than Hanson.
Scoots
August 1st, 2012
10:59 am
One more thing – we have Simmons’ return to also look forward to.
the truth...
August 1st, 2012
11:13 am
So Medlen proved once more that he is a “viable option” ???????????????
That’s all he proved?
How about that he would rank much higher on that list of starters you rattled off…..probably an equal to Maholm….certainly more mentally prepared than Minor and infinitely more in “control” then Hanson.
You placed Hanson at the bottom of the list…..and I think Medlen showed last night that he is clearly better than Hanson……
DaculaJones
August 1st, 2012
12:04 pm
What worries me is how streaky this team is.
I have seen past Braves teams with this style. Win 10, lose 8, win 6, lose 10
All it takes is bad timing at the end of the season or in the playoffs and Poofffffffff.
The Bobby Cox approach has always been, “Win each Series” 2 out of 3, 6 out of 9 on a road trip.
Stay consistant and build by winning series.
Buzz Capra
August 1st, 2012
12:55 pm
Don’t quote ESPN on trades. Loved these two moves from the microsecond the news hit my IPHONE. 1. Signing Sheets and 2. Moving Medlin to the rotation. Keep going Bravos. Shultz just has to sell papers, so we have to talk about the collapse last year where they would have made the playoffs anyway under the current format with the extra wildcard. Talk about that. Or gee we could talk about 1974 when we won 88 games and finished 3rd but they won the division with 89 wins in 1982. Is this relavent? no Last year isn’t either – this isn’t the same team.
Bravesfan79
August 1st, 2012
1:13 pm
We should skip one of Hudsons starts soon. I dont want him wearing down in September.
JoeFan
August 1st, 2012
1:38 pm
If the Braves can avoid a serious injury, they appear solid enough to grab a wildcard or even catch the Nats.
the truth...
August 1st, 2012
2:10 pm
@ Ken Stallings…..
Well thought out explanation of the “that was then and this is now” of 2011 vs 2012. You make very good points ….
I’m hopeful that we can maintain our momentum from July thru August and into September…..though we don’t want to peak at the wrong time. That is clearly what we did last year.
On the positive side of the Medlen issue or delimna …. last year we didn’t have him as an option to take up some of the slack when Huddy, Hudson and JJ collapse. The rest of the way this year he is a big insurance policy….
I would have loved to see Hanson traded at the deadline, though perhaps he would have been seen as “damaged goods” and not yielded much in return……….but we’d be off the hook for his salary and still have arms to take up his slack….
one for all
August 1st, 2012
7:37 pm
GM Wrenn, trade Dan Uggla in the winter meetings. He simply is not worth his contract. Moneyball. l want players worth what they are paid. Braves have fine young team with future stars. We need players who will help win the World Series. Sorry, for the team and Dan. He has not got the it factor. He is great in spurts. But when do the spurts occur? Next, Michael Bourn. Great leadoff hitter, great centerfielder, fine teammate. Worth 20 million? l would not write that check. Lipka needs to get ready.
Disgusted
August 1st, 2012
9:06 pm
With Liberty Media in charge, we are not retaining Bourn and this might be his career year.
He won’t hit for the surprising power he has hit for this yr.
Wren deserves credit for keeping the team relevant in his time here. We do not go to the playoffs like we used to but hey, this will be three second place finished in a row on a skimpy budget.
Now, they really have to focus on retaining Prado and Mc Cann. That is a must. Not retaining them is cheap beyond reason.
BTW, having a Maholm down the stretch in September of last yr might have made the difference in making the WC and not making it.
Disgusted
August 1st, 2012
9:07 pm
Uggla is not tradable this winter..
We have to hope he does better next yr.
Billy
August 1st, 2012
9:40 pm
Everybody wants somebody sometimes..
boykin
August 1st, 2012
11:57 pm
Is it time to trade McCann while we can get something for him?
longtimefan
August 2nd, 2012
6:07 am
For those that continue to bash Liberty Media-the Braves are 16th in payroll in MLB out of 30 teams @ 83M plus.
Don Abernethy
August 2nd, 2012
8:37 am
I have noticed over the years that they seem to fall apart at the end of the season. Hope that will not happen this year.
Don
August 2nd, 2012
8:59 am
Why did the AJC print the information about Hanson being injured.
A Braes Pitcher being injured can no longer be classified as NEWS.
Sugar Bear Blanks
August 2nd, 2012
9:55 am
Bring back Derek Lowe. We’re paying him anyway. Why not get a few innings out of him.
Teddy B
August 3rd, 2012
3:13 am
Uh, no thanks on the D-Lowe. He can stay home for all I care and collect his big bucks. I think its funny they call him an “innings eater” but he constantly fell apart around the 4th,5th inning from mid season to the end last year. Terrible pitcher he’s just too old to be effective.
Well I think we’re in a great spot with 1 too many starting pitchers (counting Medlen). We all know that at least one of our guys is going to get DL’d again before this is over. Medlen will be our spot starter and there is nobody I’d rather see do it.
Offense is tearing it up, Heyward is better than his 2010 version and all our stars are lined up. Now if Danny Uggla would just wake up we could be on a tear like nothing ever seen. Heyward, Chipper, and Freeman are winning us lots of games knocking in Bourn and Prado all the time. I love this team we got right now (could love it more if Uggla would do something).