Braves look good now, but what can we expect next?
Kris Medlen represented another good sign for the Braves with five solid innings before the rain delay. (AP photo)
(Updated: midnight)
On this day a year ago, the Braves were 17 games over .500 (63-46), continued their ascent to 26 over in late August, flashing the look of a legitimate contender, and muted almost every remaining skeptic when even Dan Uggla rediscovered the art of hitting (the assumption being that his 33-game hitting streak had followed the laying of hands). Then came the fall.
After the Braves’ 7-1 win over the Miami Marlins Tuesday night, giddiness abounded once again. They have won seven straight. They are a season-best 59-44. Everybody is hitting. (OK. Not Dan Uggla. The hands thing wore off.)
So. Is it safe now to project something special?
Uh … no.
There is a lot to like about this team. They score runs. They deliver timely hits. They rank second to St. Louis in the National League in runs scored. The overall team batting average (.257) doesn’t look great, but it’s up from last season (.243) and doesn’t reflect the strength of the everyday lineup: from Chipper Jones (.316) to Martin Prado (.302) to Michael Bourn (.292) to Freddie Freeman (.279, 63 RBIs) to Jason Heyward (.309 since June; 17 homers overall) to the suddenly hot Brian McCann (.309, 9 homers and 21 RBIs in the last 19).
(Not Uggla. He’s at .208. And now, we move on.)
But last year taught us something about assumptions. When a roster without a long resume for winning loses 18 of 26 down the stretch and gets swept in a three-game series at home to end the season to miss the playoffs, it’s best to remain cautious. We can’t yet know if that team is this team. We can’t be certain that this team is immune to a tailspin.
“I feel really good about this team,” Jones said in a near-empty clubhouse after most of his teammates had left for batting practice. “I like the way we’re playing right now. I like the makeup of this ballclub. Is it enough? The next two months will tell us. But I like our chances as we sit here at the end of July.”
The Braves now sit only 2½ games behind Washington in the National League East. Assume nothing. Consider the rest of the season a flashing yellow light.
The good is the offense and the bullpen. The uncertainty is the starting rotation, from which everything flows. The trade-deadline acquisition of starter Paul Maholm from the Chicago Cubs was a solid move, even if not at the level that Ryan Dempster or obviously Zack Greinke would’ve been. Maholm’s career ERA with Chicago and Pittsburgh is a mediocre 4.30, but he has been among baseball’s hottest pitchers lately (5-0, 1.00 ERA in his last seven starts).
“I feel like the front office tried to make a humongous move and they couldn’t make it work,” David Ross said. “They were trying to get a shutdown starter. I don’t know if you would put Paul Maholm in that category, but his numbers lately are great.”
General manager Frank Wren’s best move this season also has been his cheapest move: He stole Ben Sheets from a little league team.
“He has given us one more guy we could trust on a nightly basis,” Wren said.
That’s said, Sheets somewhat illustrates the questions about the rotation. He has returned from two years out of baseball with three great starts (one earned run in 18 innings). But can we expect that to continue? If you lined up the team’s starters by perceived order of strength, it might go something like this: Tim Hudson, Sheets, Maholm, and then Mike Minor and Tommy Hanson (who just went on the disabled list) in either order.
Kris Medlen reaffirmed Tuesday night that he is a viable option. He threw five strong innings, allowing only one run and four hits and needing only 57 pitches before the rain started, causing a 1 hour, 53-minute delay. He was done for the night.
The strength of the starting pitching will cause a ripple effect with the bullpen, which last year wore out down the stretch. That, along with injuries to Hanson and Jair Jurrjens and a blur of hitting slumps led to the slide.
“What happened last September will pay dividends at some point,” Jones said. He paused before adding with a slight smile, “Whether it’s this year or years down the road remains to be seen. It was kind of a perfect storm of bad things that happened to us and led to our demise. The chance of those things happening again are slim. But we’re not going to take anything for granted.”
That’s probably wise.
By Jeff Schultz
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245 comments Add your comment
Tom(Independent Viet Vet USAF)
July 31st, 2012
4:57 pm
TuffShhhtuff – The Mississippi Braves and Mobile mixed it up in a brawl last nite, saw it on net!! Those minor league guys, it does not take much to get them fired up!
Herchel
July 31st, 2012
5:03 pm
Hanson was throwing 94-95 when he broke in. Last night it was 88-89. The smoke and mirrors won’t last. Fredi will continue to trot him out every 5th day, even though Medlen is better. The Braves are much better offensively this year than last, so I have hope for the playoffs.
Jacket Man
July 31st, 2012
5:03 pm
Dempster was traded to the Rangers; that ship has sailed and the Braves moved on to a better option, in my opinion. Getting a lefty who has an ERA of around 1.0 over his past 6 games, goes deep in games, and plays great in Atlanta, and is under contract for another year, along with getting a terrific bench player who can play all 3 outfield spots and pinch hit with the best of them? I’ll take that over a 3 month right handed rental whose costing a top prospect, and been getting hit hard his last three games, every day.
Fladawg
July 31st, 2012
5:08 pm
What happened… Did Ryan Dempster break up with Ted Lilly?
Hillbilly D
July 31st, 2012
5:10 pm
What happened… Did Ryan Dempster break up with Ted Lilly?
Dempster liked the Dodgers a whole lot more than they liked him.
Tami
July 31st, 2012
5:10 pm
Just heard Tommy Hanson went on the 15-day DL with his back. Oh, joy. For every five steps forward this team takes in trying to contend this season, it ends up being pushed back three steps. Cory Gearrin has been called up from AAA Gwinnett.
bustersonly
July 31st, 2012
5:11 pm
Wren is the luckiest man on the planet, If that Delgado for Dempster trade had not fallen through he would be the most hated man in Georgia, instead he comes out looking like the most brilliant GM on the planet.
T-Bone
July 31st, 2012
5:27 pm
Find a way to trade Hanson–maybe for a future 3rd baseman to replace Chipper–and put in Medlin. Hudson, Sheets, Maholm, Medlin, and Minor is not a bad rotation. Now, Teheran and Delgado just need to take the winter and learn to pitch up to their potential.
We still need a true #1 starter.
ATLcracker
July 31st, 2012
5:31 pm
Have any of our hardcore Sabermetric guys weighed in on whether Medlin projects better as a starter or reliever based on his stats prior to surgery?
BradB
July 31st, 2012
5:40 pm
We need to do (almost) whetever it takes to keep Michael Bourn on this roster. In terms of this season, when this team is flat, their facial expressions mimic those of the US men’s gymnastics team, utter despair. Chipper is rarely swayed, but these guys truly need to rally around this man in his final season. Dan Uggla needs to quit being scared at the plate and quit being seen out at the bar so much. Drown your misery in base hits, not brown bottles. Sheets has been very uplifting for this team and I think the guys are responding to his fervor. We are Braves fans, we are always cautious…
Stinger2
July 31st, 2012
5:44 pm
BradB: Exactly how did you get your information that Uggla hangs out at bars?
Did you see him and how many times?
beone
July 31st, 2012
5:57 pm
Jeff, Do you like Chicago? Maybe we can find a deal.
"Chef" Tim Dix
July 31st, 2012
6:03 pm
Jeff I don’t expect Wren to trade another one arm pitcher for a starter and stud bench player. Outstanding trade, Cub fans just got kissed by their GM.
IlliniBrave
July 31st, 2012
6:03 pm
Biggest difference between this year and last is that Fredi has not burned out our bullpen. Last year, the O’Vent-brel combo had almost 150 innings pitched in almost 150 appearances by the All-Star Break. This year, Kimbrel and EOF had less than 65 IPs in just 68 appearances at mid-season. The reduced workload on these two, along with sharing innings across more middle-relievers, has kept the backend of the bullpen fresher. I don’t think we’ll see the bullpen fading down the stretch like we did last Aug-Sept.
Brownie
July 31st, 2012
6:05 pm
Don’t kid yourself that the Braves don’t know what Hanson does in his off time during the season. Too much invested in these guys. IF he is hittin’ the bars, they’ll either get him in line, or ship him out. The Braves have proven in the past they won’t put up with it.
As far as Uggla goes, he brings it every night, 100%. Just not hitting right now, but his attitude and effort are never in question. I can see some subtle changes in his batting stance that Joe Simpson has been talking about. Much less body movement and toe-taps prior to the pitch – this hopefully will lead to a more stable base and less weight falling back on his right side – level out his swing some.
NC Braves Fan
July 31st, 2012
6:06 pm
A wild card berth is not going to get the Braves far in October. That’s not an indictment against the Braves. The new one-game playoff format makes it difficult to advance. long way of saying, we need to catch the Nats. Not easy with their depth. But hey, it’s been a fun summer so far.
Brownie
July 31st, 2012
6:08 pm
Oh, and let’s finally put to rest ANY thoughts that the Dempster trade would have paid any dividends. A sub-.500 career pitcher on a 2 month rental, who doesn’t want to be here – AND they’d have to hand over Delgado???? Wren hit a homer with Maholm/Johnson.
Damon Evans
July 31st, 2012
6:34 pm
Red panties.
ronnie turner
July 31st, 2012
6:39 pm
i say it be braves and yankees in ws and braves in six
Jeff Schultz
July 31st, 2012
6:43 pm
Column has gone through first update. Next one will come during game, Things I didn’t get into but will be covered later in stories by David O’Brien and Carroll Rogers.
– Traded deadline was 4 p.m. Wren said he ended his last call at 3:50.50
– Wren was seeking bullpen help but had only five relievers on their board that they were interested in (he didn’t list them). He said 3 of the 5 were traded.
– The Braves will make one more roster move when they add Maholm to the roster (probably tomorrow). Some of us speculated that Jurrjens might be gone today but then Hanson went on the disabled list.
– Hanson’s back injury isn’t believed to be serious. It flared up after the game last night and the team wants to give him a couple of weeks off.
– One funny thing that came up is Wren said he and a lot of the general managers text trade offers now because it’s faster. Of course, I had to ask Wren if when he gets a ridiculous offer whether he texts back, “LOL.” Wren said no. Nor does he use emoticons. “And I don’t do that semi-colon/bracket thing either.”
"Chef" Tim Dix
July 31st, 2012
6:44 pm
OFF SUBJECT: Can you imagine the stories told should Damon and Petrino get together and throw a few down?
Trey
July 31st, 2012
6:46 pm
I believe the Braves have a chance, as long as the Nats end up losing, but they seem unstoppable at the moment.
Jeff Schultz
July 31st, 2012
6:48 pm
Tonight’s lineups:
Braves
Bourn (8)
Prado (7)
Heyward (9)
McCann (2)
Freeman (3)
Uggla (4)
Francisco (5)
Janish (6)
Medlen (1) … 1-1, 2.48
Day off — Chipper
Marlins
Bonifacio (4)
Murphy (5)
Reyes (6)
Lee (3)
Ruggiano (8)
Dobbs (7)
Buck (2)
Peterson (9)
Nolasco (1) .. 8-9, 4.80
Sonny Clusters
July 31st, 2012
6:49 pm
We was hoping you’d be there tonight, Jeff. We watched that video of you several times and enjoyed it each time. Did we see a german shepherd in the background? Wearing black socks?
Backdoor Slider
July 31st, 2012
6:51 pm
FRANK GAVE UP FAR TOO MUCH
Consider the comments of Jay Jaffe of Sports Illustrated:
“… the Braves gave up quality in the form of the 21-year-old Vizcaino, who came into the year ranked 40th on Baseball America‘s Top 100 Prospects list — and an eye-popping 14th on Keith Law’s list — but who underwent Tommy John surgery in late March after pitching through a partially torn ulnar collateral ligament since 2010. Undersized at 6 feet and 190 pounds, and with an unorthodox delivery, he throws a 92-96 MPH fastball that can touch 98 out of the bullpen, and a power curveball that’s also an out pitch. His command issues, injury history and failure to develop a third pitch may make him a permanent reliever, though. Chapman is a reliever as well, a 25-year-old righty who was striking out 10.1 per nine at Triple-A Gwinnett on the strength of a plus changeup that complements an 89-92 MPH fastball.” — End quote.
Jeff Schultz
July 31st, 2012
6:54 pm
Stinger2 — I agree, I don’t think last year is on their minds either. But I think if a late-season slide happened, that would change, if for no other reason than the fact the media would keep bringing it up. …. I also completely agree that Frank Wren doesn’t panic. The debate with people only comes with the moves and non-moves.”
Jeff Schultz
July 31st, 2012
6:56 pm
Columbus — Killjoy? I’ve been called worse. …. In my view there is only official closure on the past when you do something in the future. Wow, that’s kinda deep. For me.
WeBurn
July 31st, 2012
6:57 pm
Ok, we get it…Jurrjens is off the radar.
Jeff Schultz
July 31st, 2012
6:59 pm
MitchC — I don’t know that I have a “normal” other than I get paid to write an opinion and, well, sometimes people agree and sometimes they don’t. But as I’ve said a zillion times before, I have no agenda or built-in prejudices. If I was swayed by emotions of winning and losing and fans, I couldn’t do my job. Thanks.
Jeff Schultz
July 31st, 2012
7:01 pm
Beone — Hah. I love Chicago. Have family there. But way too cold. I’m exercising my 5 and 10 rights.
Jeff Schultz
July 31st, 2012
7:02 pm
“Chef” Tim — I would sit down with Damon at that bar. We always got along. Like him. He just screwed up. Petrino? Pass.
Jeff Schultz
July 31st, 2012
7:03 pm
Sonny Clusters — That was no German Shepherd. That was my Uncle Fred.
Jeff Schultz
July 31st, 2012
7:04 pm
Backdoor Slider — About Jay Jaffe: What team is he a general manager for?
Jeff Schultz
July 31st, 2012
7:06 pm
WeBurn — That’s what we in the biz refer to as a second-draft editing faux pas. Thanks. Second off-the-radar reference deleted.
Jeff Schultz
July 31st, 2012
7:13 pm
Oops …. Donnie Murphy slams 1st pitch for homer off Medlen.
urban redneck
July 31st, 2012
7:14 pm
so pencil medlen in for about three additional starts, right? that would be purty sweet. love that guy. big red is good when he is on. however, this does give us 15 days to catch them nats. huddy, sheets, medlen, minor, maholm? that’s the best starting five we’ve had all year.
hope we can sign reed johnson, mbourne, and bmac long term………..probably wishful drinking. go bravos.
urban redneck
July 31st, 2012
7:14 pm
d’oh!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
WeBurn
July 31st, 2012
7:15 pm
Schultz,
Thanks for the quick reply. Should Atlanta take it personally that Dempster spurned us for Texas? Because it bothers me.
Steve
July 31st, 2012
7:16 pm
Jeff, now that the trades are complete, do you think the Braves have what it takes to win the division? In other words, do you think they will? Do you think Washington will still shut down Strasburg?
Steve
July 31st, 2012
7:17 pm
Dempster is obviously a scum bag. LA was his first choice and Atlanta was his second yet he ends up in Texas? Lets hope he gets shelled the rest of the year.
Jeff Schultz
July 31st, 2012
7:18 pm
WeBurn — Take it personally? Sure. I mean, you’re a fan and he blocked a trade to your team. But in his mind it’s just business. His first choice was L.A. That said, he should’ve known that it might backfire on him and sure enough it did. Obviously Texas was not his first choice, even though there are obviously worse places to go.
Jeff Schultz
July 31st, 2012
7:20 pm
Steve — I believe what I wrote in column. I like the lineup a lot. I feel there’s a lot of uncertainty about starting pitching. Do I think they can win the division and even go to the World Series? Yes. But I also wouldn’t be surprised if missed the postseason altogether. Just don’t have a strong feeling one way or the other.
Jeff Schultz
July 31st, 2012
7:21 pm
Heyward is really swinging the bat well — big difference from a year ago.
Jeff Schultz
July 31st, 2012
7:22 pm
BALK!!!!!!!!
(sorry, always liked that word)
Steve
July 31st, 2012
7:24 pm
Thanks Jeff! I think the division will be tough but would personally be surprised if they are not one of the Wild Card teams. However I hate that it would come down to one game to see who plans in the NLDS. Should at least be a 3 game series.
Steve
July 31st, 2012
7:24 pm
*plays
Delbert D.
July 31st, 2012
7:24 pm
Uggla will eventually start hitting again. As it stands, he and Heyward has the same OBP. The opponents are obviously fearful about him starting a streak, so the walk him a lot.
Hanson, Tebow and Jim Furyk are the 3 guys right off the top of my head that have substandard mechanics. Furyk has no one to answer to other than himself, and he does okay with that loopy swing. Hanson didn’t have enough time in the spring to make the prescribed delivery changes. He now has a year and a half to prove he is worth any serious money. Tebow is H-back material in my opinion.
Jeff Schultz
July 31st, 2012
7:29 pm
Dan Uggla up. Do we need to sacrifice a chicken tonight?
Jeff Schultz
July 31st, 2012
7:30 pm
Walk!
TomahawkChoppin'
July 31st, 2012
7:33 pm
JS have you added yikkety and mammo to the twitter vocabulary yet?