We give you odds on Braves’, Falcons’ or Hawks’ title parade
Forgot what Atlanta parade looked like? Here's 1995 Braves World Series MVP Tom Glavine.
It is that time of year when two leagues are close to determining new champions and every sports fan in Atlanta thinks, “There goes another parade.”
A potential NBA title in Oklahoma City? A possible Stanley Cup in Los Angeles (only slightly better than if Ilya Kovalchuk led New Jersey)? Are the sporting gods planning any more shots to the groin area? Is Mike Mularkey destined to lead Jacksonville to a Super Bowl? (On second thought, we’re probably safe.)
Not counting minor leagues or sports teams that would make you pause and think, “Wait, do they count?” Atlanta has celebrated only one pro championship since the Braves and Falcons theoretically lifted the city out of amateur status in 1966.
Depending on how generous you want to be with the math, Atlanta is 1-for-46 years, which equates to an annual parade percentage of .022, or 1-for-155 seasons (MLB, NFL, NBA, NHL), which is a batting/completion/shooting percentage of .007. Even Josh Smith is shooting 27.8 percent from 3-point range.
Loading ...So the question: What will it take for the Braves, Falcons or Hawks to win a championship? What follows is how I would rank the three, and what potentially could push them over the top:
1. Braves (46-plus seasons: 3799-3564, 17 playoffs, 1 title).
Biggest need: leadership.
Parade odds: 15-1.
They have been really good (25-15) and really bad (eight-game losing streak). The issue is not talent but chemistry. We’ve seen that they’re a different team when Chipper Jones is out of the lineup. That speaks not only to Jones’ impact in the lineup, but the otherwise lack of leadership in the clubhouse.
I know the baseball vs. football emotion thing can be debated. But the Braves haven’t consistently played with a sense of urgency and fight. They don’t scrap. They don’t always seem confident. That’s what allows teams to endure when pitching, defense or offense falls off. That falls on the manager, Fredi Gonzalez, who needs to prove he can pull this bunch out of a tailspin, which he didn’t a year ago.
2. Falcons (46 seasons: 299-399-6, 11 playoffs, 0 titles).
Biggest needs: offensive line, play-calling.
Parade odds: 25-1.
They’re evolving into that Braves argument of the 1990s. The Braves won 14 division titles but only one World Series. The Falcons have made the playoffs three out of four years under Thomas Dimitroff and Mike Smith but have yet to win a postseason game (losing the past two by scores of 48-21 and 24-2).
Dimitroff bristled at suggestions in the offseason that he wasn’t doing enough to improve the team, but he should recognize that re-signing players and adding talent are two different things. It follows that the trade for cornerback Asante Samuel was significant.
But there are significant questions on offense. The line excels at neither pass nor run blocking, and Sam Baker returns at left tackle. Mularkey’s predictability at play-calling was an issue, but we’ll never know how much was dictated by coach Mike Smith. Perceptions that the Falcons’ need more of a bombs-away offense are off base. They just need to find ways to utilize all of their weapons and keep defenses off balance. That’s on new coordinator Dirk Koetter. Then real judgments on Matt Ryan (seven points in past six playoff quarters) can be made.
3. Hawks (44 seasons: 1762-1798, 28 playoffs, 0 titles).
Biggest need: a plan.
Parade odds: 100-1.
Of the three franchises, the Hawks are the only ones who seem to make it up as they go. Is Al Horford ideal at center? No. Does Jeff Teague have shortcomings at point guard? Yes. But the biggest problem was giving Joe Johnson an elite player’s contract, the issue being he’s not an elite player, and he has hamstrung them financially.
There is no easy way out of this mess. But the most significant move they could make would be trading Josh Smith (who wants out and likely will leave next year in free agency) for a starting point guard, a center or a second scoring option. But plans only come about when an organization shows some semblance of stability, and the Hawks are anything but stable. From the pratfalls of ownership to the uncertain future of general manager Rick Sund, it’s difficult to get a handle on where this team is going.
This bunch has probably hit their ceiling as a first- or second-round playoff team, unless significant changes are made. But what do the Hawks generally do? Tweak and play it safe.
By Jeff Schultz
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173 comments Add your comment
dannyL
June 6th, 2012
12:49 am
Danielle D._Tech fan obviously…showing her love for team that bangs her team repeatedly.
bulldogbubba
June 6th, 2012
1:23 am
Jeff , This is crazy talk. You need some time OFF!! A few days away will clear up that warped thought process. ADIOS. AMIGO
Dr. Warren
June 6th, 2012
2:35 am
The Braves have not had a losing season since 1990—that is 22 years ago. That is incredible, no matter what the World Series record has been.
Ron E.
June 6th, 2012
6:42 am
Leadership? And here I thought what the Braves needed was better work by their starting pitchers. I guess that’s why I read the media though: to learn what meaningless cliche is troubling my favorite team.
True Falcon Fan
June 6th, 2012
6:45 am
Braves w/Freddie & Frank = “well there you have 2 “F”!
Falcons w/AB, GM, MS, staff & “The Team” = “WINNER”
Hawks = i am really not a basketball fan – that said, i would like to see the Hawks be a “WINNER”
Go Falcons!
JB
June 6th, 2012
7:31 am
It really starts with ownership. Falcons have the best shot as they have a local involved owner who appears to want to win. Hawks & Braves…..toast. Not happening. losing money and ownership has an attitude of good money after bad.
bryant hendricks
June 6th, 2012
7:47 am
What about the Atlanta Chiefs? First championship for Atlanta even though nobody remembers them or what sport they played…
pblsn2
June 6th, 2012
7:55 am
perhaps we could just change the names of all three franchises and start the count over?….
Rodster
June 6th, 2012
8:06 am
I think Falcon’s probably have the best shot. Just depends on so many variables and luck of getting hot at the right time like the Packers of 2010 and the Giants of 2011. The Falcon’s might have a shot now that Mularkey is gone. But if they go back to the preponderance of long side liine out routes that they always run the last couple of years, then I’d say Smith must be the problem. They’ve got the offensive talent to be more creative.
Don Waddell
June 6th, 2012
8:17 am
I guarantee that the Thrashers will win a championship. I’m working on a 5-year plan as we speak.
dean
June 6th, 2012
8:23 am
“Hope for the best and expect the worst.”, is the best an ATL fan of any sport can do.
Adam
June 6th, 2012
8:27 am
the winnpeg jets will win the stanley cup before any of these lousy teams
Dawg Uno
June 6th, 2012
8:29 am
It’s only been 32 years since UGA won the football championship, so don’t lose hope.
Biggest needs: Coaching, players who can read and don’t spend half their time in jail.
Parade odds: 1,000,000,000,000,000,000 :1
Nahila
June 6th, 2012
9:00 am
If Smith is traded, the only thing that can improve the Hawks is to get a good and tall center in return so that Horford goes to PF to replace Smith. Yes, the Hawks need a good backup point guard and shooting guard but should try to resign Hinrich at a lower salary figure as he can play both positions which can enable the zhawks to draft a second round pick at Guard that they can bring in to the point guard position. They should keep Williams at SF as with Smith gone, Willams might take up some of the scoring slack, however, if they can make a good trade (doubtful), then pull the trigger. Then resign PF Johnson and another outside shooter that could play both SG and SF.
Felix
June 6th, 2012
9:21 am
Other than the 1995 World Series, has Atlanta ever won a championship?
Sad Sack
June 6th, 2012
9:53 am
I would say that the odds are greater than 100-1 that any of these three win a championship within the next 5 years.
D man
June 6th, 2012
9:59 am
What a depressing article Jeff. I think the Falcons have a better chance at a title than the Braves because of better talent. At least they made it to the playoffs.
The hawks are a complete mess of a team. No leaders, no heart, no superstars, just a solid 8 seed team that will lose in the first or second round at best. Time to reassemble this team and restructure. We need leaders, superstars, and a little fight. I only like Horford as a starter. Build around him and get whatever we can in trades for JJ, and maybe Smith will want to stay. I like his fight.
We need fighters on all of our teams to get titles. Miami Heat, Philly Eagles, and the An. Angles proved that pure talent isn’t what wins titles. Heart and the will to not fail wins titles. Bring it Atlanta teams. I’m a big fan and have been for 40+ years…
Justin
June 6th, 2012
10:06 am
It would be absurd to trade Josh Smith for a point guard when Jeff Teague is already one of the better players on the team and is one that legitimately still has upside. Trade Josh, amnesty Marvin. You’re stuck with Joe, so in that regard it probably is 100-1.
SawThat1nce
June 6th, 2012
10:08 am
Shultz, you are a sports writer for the AJC, and yet you seem to know little to nothing about the hometown MLB team.
Other than the little skid they hit with their losing streak, when so many of their key offensive players were out for various reasons, the Braves have been prettty well the opposite, of this junk, that you wrote.
go braves!
reckingball
June 6th, 2012
10:18 am
Shultz, you are a sports writer for the AJC? And yet, you seem to know little to nothing, about the hometown MLB team.
Other than the skid that they took during their losing streak, when so many of their offensive players were out for various reasons, the Braves have played pretty well the opposite, of what you wrote, in this piece of junk.
Check the Standings for the NLEast, they are still right in the thick of the race, in one of the toughest Division in MLB.
go braves!
Johnny Dakota
June 6th, 2012
10:37 am
I vote Thrashers….by the time we get our third hockey team, they’ll win a title within five years… that’s how long it will take the other three.
Knows Warts
June 6th, 2012
10:40 am
Two main reasons why the Braves won’t win a WS anytime soon:
1. Liberty Media
2. Frank Wren
JSS
June 6th, 2012
10:47 am
“Winners” do not always equate to “Champions!” And there’s the rub… But looking who was making the analogy… Still, Danny White was a helluva of “winner!” Russ Ortiz was a “winner.” Mike Fratello was a “winner” but he never smelled a championship!
NekiEcko
June 6th, 2012
10:54 am
I think everything starts with ownership. Mr. Blank through trial and error is determined to bring a championship to Atlanta, while Liberty Media and Atlanta Suck Group only concerns is the bottomline of what they get from their profits.
I remember that Mr. Gereon(ASG) was talking trash about AB and local media before (does he know to shut his trap up) about how the Hawks was better than the Falcons, that they dont get any respect from media and see how quickly Mr. Blank shut him up. Until those organizations(Liberty Media and ASG), pull their heads out of their collective butts, Falcons will have the best chance to win a title.
CrαZy
June 6th, 2012
11:01 am
1) Braves- They are young and have multiple players with very high ceilings… they might not win it this year, but they are set up to win in the near future!!
2) Falcons- Not as promising as the Braves, but with the parody in the NFL, I think there odds are almost as good as the Braves.
3) UGA- It’s been 32 years they’re due… And this years schedule is set up better than ever, but then there’s Bama and LSU so yeah not gonna happen!!
4) GT- Only ahead of the Hawks because the Hawks have ZERO hope until the ASG is gone… Yeah GT has almost as little hope as the Hawks, but their basketball program is going to get it going again… Brian Gregory is showing he can recruit and coach in the ACC.
5) Hawks – Again NEVER going to win a title playing it safe and being owned by the Atlanta Spirit Group.
JSS
June 6th, 2012
11:16 am
Where is DUI (Dept of Unintended irony) when needed? “2) Falcons- Not as promising as the Braves, but with the parody in the NFL, I think there odds are almost as good as the Braves.”
“Parody” is certainly the word to describe any team who’d invest long term in Thomas DeCoud…
Now, there is a recipe for “parity!”
D-1 revenue sports are like the worse of English aristocracy, it is designed to prohibit real competition and give a false sense of glory!
Nativebird
June 6th, 2012
11:18 am
I can’t see Liberty Media winning a championship of any kind…any where. But you can bet they’ll have a healthy balance sheet.
mark
June 6th, 2012
11:21 am
this hurts.. tweak and play it safe.
CrαZy
June 6th, 2012
11:31 am
Parity
that’s what I get for not reading before I hit submit…
Artman
June 6th, 2012
11:39 am
1. Falcons – Blank is the only owner who truely gets it, i.e. hire a quality person for the general manager and let the guy do his thing.
2 Braves – I have less of a feel here but do know without some sort of salary cap there will always be teams able to spend much more money than the Braves.
3 Hawks – The owners don’t have a clue. HIre a mediocre general manager and a cheap head coach. Give the mediocre gm little or no auhority to make decisions. My best guess is they are still trying to sell so they are on hold to make any changes.
Scot
June 6th, 2012
12:57 pm
I grew up in Dallas as a Cowboys fan, but have lived in Atlanta for 12 years. That 1980 Cowboys-Falcons playoff game was so exciting. Don’t feel too badly, because the Eagles sent the Cowboys packing a week later.
Larry
June 6th, 2012
1:00 pm
Looks like “reckingball” and “SawThat1nce” are one and the same! Any other usernames?
LOL!
JSS
June 6th, 2012
1:02 pm
“i.e. hire a quality person for the general manager and let the guy do his thing.”
Sam Baker, Peria Jerry, and a bundle of draft picks in Cleveland is a helluva legacy!
SawThat1nce
June 6th, 2012
1:11 pm
That reckingball person stole my comment, and re-edited it. haha
Got to admit, his version is much better.
Matt "CHOKE" Ryan
June 6th, 2012
1:20 pm
If CHOKE and Flacco had reversed rookie salaries CHOKE would still be overpaid at 30 million
Dude should be playing for league minimum.
Matt "CHOKE" Ryan
June 6th, 2012
1:24 pm
DID YOU KNOW?
The last time the Falcants won a playoff game George Bush had just been re-elected
That was like 3 presidential terms ago
Larry
June 6th, 2012
1:24 pm
“CHOKE”
Somewhere outsdie of your mom’s basement is a tree tirelessly producing oxygen so that you can breath…I think you owe it an opology.
gordonguy1969
June 6th, 2012
1:46 pm
You can make fun of the Chiefs all you want. You can call them “soccer players,” you can call them insignificant, you can call them nobodies. But there’s one other thing you can call them – Champions. And no matter how hard you try, you can’t take that away from them. What would be nice, Schultz, is instead of mocking them and scoffing at their achievements you would instead do a story on these “Forgotten Champions.” Believe it or not, there are a lot of folks in this city who actually would care if you took the time to do some journalism.
Oh, wait, I forgot…
Bob
June 6th, 2012
1:47 pm
Atlanta Cheifs – North American Soccer League
NASL Championships
1968
Division Titles
1968 Atlantic Division
1971 Southern Division
1981 Southern Division
True Falcon Fan
June 6th, 2012
2:24 pm
Winners, Champions as in football/Super Bowl – that’s what i’m hoping for the Falcons with this current ownership, GM, HC & team,
We have World Champion/Braves! Winners
Whether you like the ownership, management or coaching for any ATL professional team “it is what it is” — and you have every right to your opinion.
JSS – so bring all the diggin’ BS you like — I Hope mamma dim are doing well!
So have you moved back to SF or was it LA – my guess is “whoever”, is missing “YOU”!
Or are you still taking care of mamma or is it the other way around?
Go Falcons!
Dr Braves
June 6th, 2012
3:20 pm
You just can’t keep yourself from attacking Fredi can you Jeff. Even when they’re winning you bring up last year! Cox is gone, get over it!!!
True Falcon Fan
June 6th, 2012
3:50 pm
Dr Braves — started the season 0-4 jus completed 0-8 next is 0-16 —- Freddie is NOT the answer!
Don’t miss my point – i would love to see the Braves win the World Series this year, but it ain’t happen!
Go Falcons
fuzzybee
June 6th, 2012
4:28 pm
This is why journalists aren’t engineers. With an average of 28 teams per league, “par” for each team is winning one championship every 28 years. With 3 teams, we should have a parade every 10 years but have only celebrated once in 46 years. If you divide 10 by 46 you get 22% which says that our teams are only 1/5th as good as they should be if everything was allocated purely by luck.
This confirms Jeff’s main point, Atlanta is a sports graveyard.
JSS
June 6th, 2012
4:48 pm
Momma joke is all you have! it sure isn’t defining “champions!” You crag like a star exuding its last gas vapors! Oh, I’m doing an expiring star a disservice, you’re like a fragment wondering aimlessly across an ellipse… Nothing but wishing that your tired journey would finally an body with enough gravity to keep you from floating about the outer reaches with no purpose… Why don’t you go trail a play like your idol DeCoud while the other team celebrates another score!!!
donte080
June 6th, 2012
5:05 pm
re: Braves/Hawks/Falcons
Instead of another whiny article about the opinionated small “odds of a championship” (as if some beat writer has any understanding at all as to what that entails) why not write an article about how lucky we are in Atlanta to have all 3 major sport teams competitive (as in the playoffs) at the same time? How many major cities can make that claim?
I’m sure I’ll get plenty of responses from all the naysayers for this comment!
Wow
June 6th, 2012
5:18 pm
Man, was it really 48-21?
I was thinking 45 or something.
Yeah……………..
In other news, heard Curtis Lofton fit right in with the bounty mentality in New Orleans.
Hitting on Chase Daniels in practice, starting fights.
Matt "CHOKE" Ryan
June 6th, 2012
5:53 pm
Larry
June 6th, 2012
1:24 pm
“CHOKE”
Somewhere outsdie of your mom’s basement is a tree tirelessly producing oxygen so that you can breath…I think you owe it an opology.
_____________________________________________________
So if I let you have a few puffs would that help you spell “apology”?
HA HA
Now you owe all the bloggers an “OPOLOGY”…..HA HA
Jborodawg
June 6th, 2012
6:23 pm
Schultz…just a few days ago you said the Braves season was crumbling. Therefore, how can you give em better odds than the Falcons?
“Yawn”@3:55PM…I’m with you. Too many pundits and ‘fans’ talk about lack of trades and spending. Let’s see what Simmons and Constanza end up doing; not to mention Uggs and JayHey seem to be on an upswing.
“They don’t scrap…don’t hussle…” Do what? You obviously haven’t been watching; and just reading the box score or sumthin.
Jborodawg
June 6th, 2012
6:26 pm
@donte080…I’m with you.
True Falcon Fan
June 6th, 2012
8:02 pm
JSS hello you out there —— you must be on Pluto —- fine yourself a sucker, you sound like you are in need something maybe sugar……………………….
Glad to know mommy is doing fine
Go Falcons