Betting windows open: Nevada says Falcons miss playoffs
These two quarterbacks had far different fates in the playoffs last season. (AP photo)
When the betting windows opened Wednesday morning, it was clear the wise guys didn’t think much of the Falcons.
Cantor Gaming was the first Nevada bookmaker to release over/under win totals for the upcoming NFL season (via Covers.com). Neither the leaders (Green Bay and New England at 12 wins) nor the bottom-feeders (Cleveland, Indianapolis and Jacksonville at 5.5 wins) were surprising.
The Falcons’ over/under opened at nine wins, which equates to a 9-7 record (barring ties). If you’re wondering how that breaks down with the rest of Cantor’s projections, that means they would miss the playoffs, finishing behind New Orleans (10 wins) in the NFC South, and the New York Giants and Detroit (9.5) in the wild card race.
Now, this is where we remind you that betting lines aren’t meant to be predictions but rather enticements to get an even amount of money wagered on both sides. So it’s basically a read on perceptions. Therefore, we can conclude that Cantor’s read is that most people aren’t as optimistic about the Falcons next season as presumably the Falcons are.
I’ve taken all of Cantor’s projected over/under win totals and arranged the teams by division. So here are their projected standings, if the numbers are accurate:
• NFC EAST Philadelphia: 10 New York Giants: 9.5 Dallas: 8-5 Washington: 6.5 • NFC NORTH Green Bay: 12 Detroit: 9.5 Chicago: 8.5 Minnesota 6 • NFC SOUTH New Orleans: 10 Atlanta: 9 Carolina: 7.5 Tampa Bay 6 • NFC WEST San Francisco: 10 Seattle: 7 Arizona: 7 St. Louis: 6.5 • AFC EAST New England 12 New York Jets: 8.5 Miami: 7.5 Buffalo: 7 • AFC NORTH Pittsburgh: 10 Baltimore: 10 Cincinnati: 7.5 Cleveland 5.5 • AFC SOUTH Houston: 10 Tennessee: 7 Indianapolis: 5.5 Jacksonville: 5.5 • AFC WEST Denver: 9.5 San Diego: 9 Kansas City: 8 Oakland: 7 •Playoff field:
NFC: Philadelphia, Green Bay, New Orleans, San Francisco, N.Y. Giants, Detroit.
AFC: New England, Pittsburgh, Houston, Denver, Baltimore, San Diego.
Here’s the Falcons’ 2012 schedule: at Kansas City, Denver, at San Diego, Carolina, at Washington, Oakland, bye, at Philadelphia, Dallas, at New Orleans, Arizona, at Tampa Bay, New Orleans, at Carolina, New York Giants, at Detroit, Tampa Bay.
I just went through it and, after a careful, extremely scientific, week-by-week dissection, which took approximately 27 seconds, concluded they will go 10-6. (Projections, as always, are subject to change. Also for entertainment purposes only.)
What are your thoughts on the opening over/under lines? And feel free to put on your prediction hat.
By Jeff Schultz
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139 comments Add your comment
Whopper Dawg
May 24th, 2012
11:20 am
The Vegas odds are pretty much what you would expect after last year, one semi-surprise being Phillie over the Giants. And that is understandable.
More interesting is that on average six teams that made the playoffs last year won’t this year. What six teams? That would make a good column Jeff.
PMC
May 24th, 2012
11:25 am
Im interested as to how the home/away every week schedule will affect them.
SawThat1nce
May 24th, 2012
11:36 am
IN 2008, I remember the oods of the Falcons going to the SuperBowl were like, 1 followed by twentyfour zeros, that they would not win it.
We all know that they didn’t make it, but they did get to the playoffs.
They will be in the playoffs this year ‘IF’ they can get a OLine that can keep the opponent off of their QB’s back, and move the other teams DLine and open some holes for the running game, just a little bit.
EasyE
May 24th, 2012
12:08 pm
As a falcon fan for many years,I still see the start of the season as a race to 8 wins!…….Seems like just the other day when the falcons just hoped to smell the playoffs!!!!….Now all people can talk about is the super bowl?…………………………………………………………………………………………………………. About betting….1. I bet edwards plays better when he’s not hurt…2.That there is a 50/50 chance one of the FA’s at LB or OL will return to there former self’s…3.Robinson plays the nickle cb spot like he did for the texans!!!!!……I have 3 negative bets too but just hate so even say’em in case they might come true!
Nobody Falcon
May 24th, 2012
12:14 pm
Man this is 2012 things always happen like New Orleans do you sill stink that they will win 12 games this year….I bet you with a penny that they will win 8 games the most come on Jeff.
Jesus Freakin Christ
May 24th, 2012
1:01 pm
You rednecks should be in church on Sunday, not watching football.
EasyE
May 24th, 2012
1:17 pm
lol!! we are seven month outta the year in church…
Matt "CHOKE" Ryan
May 24th, 2012
2:08 pm
The Vegas line should read………………
“OVER AND UNDER THAT CHOKE BLOWS IN THE PLAYOFFS AGAIN”
True Falcon Fan
May 24th, 2012
2:45 pm
The 1998 Atlanta Falcons opened in Vegas odds at 35-1 to the win their division, 50-1 to go WIN NFC Championship game, 55-1 to go to Super Bowl (Just make it to SB paid) was the payoff – i am here to tell everyone “I purchased 3 tickets at $100.00 on 35-1 —- $50.00 on 50-1 —- $50.00 on 55-1 to just make it to SB — Boyz & Girls — I won BIG! —- So the moral to this story is don’t always believe the bookies!
Go Falcons!!
hiramsaint
May 24th, 2012
2:56 pm
@ norm and malcom- when impersonating me , always keep in mind that it’s just pretend and eventually you have to go back to being a failclown fan .
left coast falcons fan
May 24th, 2012
2:57 pm
seems accurate to me..the popular sentiment in management was to blame coaching for last years debacle, but they are the same old birds…last time they had a pass rush was the 80’s grits blitz
10 of 12
May 24th, 2012
2:58 pm
When impersonating hiramsaint , Malcolm and Norm must remember that it’s only make believe and sooner or later , they must return to being a lowly failclown fan !
10 of 12
May 24th, 2012
2:59 pm
Enter your comments here
10 of 12
May 24th, 2012
3:00 pm
Nah -waste of time on a waste of a franchise
Sister Teresa
May 24th, 2012
5:43 pm
We all know, however, we must all forgive and learn to love these Saint fans that post here, even though they are ignominiously irritating, brash, arrogant, annoying, caustic, galling, hateful, nasty, unpleasant, peevish, cavalier, cocky, conceited, contemptible, contemptuous, disdainful, egotistical, haughty, insolent, overbearing, smug, snooty and snotty. There must be some redeeming factors about them………..er…………well………maybe not.
hiramtiger
May 24th, 2012
7:34 pm
you forgot -accurate and insightful !
Sister Teresa
May 24th, 2012
7:53 pm
Well, tiger, if you say so……………..but really! ! !
Michael Thompson
May 24th, 2012
10:23 pm
It amazes me how many writers, betters, cracked out prognosticators, talking heads and the like create wins with their breath and a dated win/loss record. Philly is going to out play the Giants? New Orleans out-wins Atlanta, did the Aints get “better” in the off-season; did the Birds get worse?
Saints R.E.A.M.
May 25th, 2012
9:34 am
This is the last year for “Go for it” Smitty. The Falcons will have to fire him after another under performing season. When he doesn’t win the division this year it will be clear that he is a cheerleader more than a head coach.
Sister Teresa
May 25th, 2012
11:33 am
Saints REAM: only in your prayers, heathen.
10 of 12
May 25th, 2012
3:55 pm
Not true sister- I know for a fact that if Smitty doesn’t reach the NFC championship game this year , he’s done . I don’t know Arty personally but I do know a number of high level execs that work for him and have loose lips after a few bourbons
Gritsfalcon
May 26th, 2012
4:35 am
Falcons go 14-2 with their only loses being @ N. Orleans and @ Detroit. (Okay, I’ll make some allowances for splitting a series with either Carolina OR Tampa Bay. (That means 13-3)) They get the “bye” again, beat the snot out of the Cowboys at Home in the Divisional round, everybody gets all excited, they are predicted to win the NFC champsionship game and go to the Super Bowl. But lurking in the shadows are those pesky Lions. That’s as far as I go. Now, everybody can go watch baseball, get ready for Christmas and check back-in January. Herm Edwards (ESPN) is one of those analysts that’s more emotion than…..oh, well, and I don’t put much stock in what he usually says. However, he is right about this: To paraphrase, This IS the make or break year for Matt Ryan. This year he proves whether Atl’s selection and grooming of him as their answer at QB was a correct one or he is a pretender that has just so happened to play with a lot of good talent around him. In 2012 no QB has more pressure on him to perform than M. Ryan. And anything short of the NFC Championship game will equal failure. Just some thoughts from an arm chair falcon’s fan since ‘66.
Roger Goodell is the BEST
May 26th, 2012
10:10 am
NFC South and North may be toughest divisions in football…..
I believe the OVER would be best bet for entire South division. Then again, N.O. will be without many pieces for a while, but could be seething and have a lot to prove. But they’ll always be piss ants, regardless.
Sister Teresa
May 26th, 2012
10:10 am
To my knowledge, none of the narcissistic individuals I’ve known personally, such as hiramsaint, have had official diagnoses of Narcissistic Personality Disorder; they have not sought help and so haven’t been assessed clinically. On the other hand, members of their families have sought help to cope with them — and I have sought help in understanding every one of them! Thus these pages.
These are field notes — that is, descriptions and observations to assist in identifying narcissists and also, I hope, to give aid and comfort to others who live and work with narcissists. I’m sorry that I cannot also give hope, but, since a prime characteristic of narcissists is believing that they are always right no matter what, narcissists are extremely resistant to change and, unfortunately, tend to get worse as they get older.
I have also never had to cope with a physically aggressive or sadistic narcissist. The narcissists I’ve known have pretty much stuck to neglect and verbal and emotional abuse. But lots of people have not been so lucky, and their narcissist parents or partners have been relentlessly interfering and cruel in efforts to reform and re-form their “beloveds,” including but not limited to plastic surgery or bleaching and perming little babies’ hair to make them more perfectly beautiful blondes. Nearly everyone has some narcissistic traits. It’s possible to be arrogant, selfish, conceited, or out of touch without being a narcissist. The practical test, so far as I know, is that with normal people, no matter how difficult, you can get some improvements, at least temporarily, by saying, essentially, “Please have a heart.” This doesn’t work with narcissists; in fact, it usually makes things worse.
It’s impossible to overemphasize the importance of narcissists’ lack of empathy. It colors everything about them.
Hey Vilma, go make Fred and Barney lunch you little girl
May 26th, 2012
10:16 am
Falcons weren’t given any favors of preperation time for games on and after national games. ie. monday, thursday, saturday and sunday night games on schedule. Check it out.
Matt "CHOKE" Ryan
May 26th, 2012
12:11 pm
Poor Falcants:
Vegas is not into you….ha ha & NFL Network Top 100 is not into CHOKE
Finally the rest of the NFL is seeing what I have been saying since 2008
Matt "CHOKE" Ryan
May 26th, 2012
12:13 pm
Gritsfalcon
May 26th, 2012
4:35 am
Falcons go 14-2 with their only loses being @ N. Orleans and @ Detroit. (Okay, I’ll make some allowances for splitting a series with either Carolina OR Tampa Bay
_________________________________________-
Crack really does kill
fan 66
May 27th, 2012
12:31 pm
I see falcons improving with Nolan as DC. I do not see any change in offense with MMII as OC and Smith as head coach. Falcons will be 8-8 at best. Would not be suprised if falcons finish fourth in NFC south. I see no playoff in site with falcons.
I see Bucs and Panthers coming on . They made improvement with rosters with pick ups and draft picks. Falcons had done little to help their roster if any. You do not win with weak o-lines and weak d-lines. Falcons have strong skill postion players on offense, weak line. You can take weak skill position players and win if you have a strong line. Look at the strong or winning team over the years . They take offense lineman with first and second round picks or sign great lineman as Bucs did with Nicks.
I hope I am wrong, but I do not see a playoff win or any superbowl wins with Smith and TD.
Blanks let the best man walk. Les Snead, he is the talent man not TD!!!!
\ Tell me how you get in salary cap trouble with a team full of average players? A JOKE!!!!!!!
junbug
May 27th, 2012
3:22 pm
You’re a damn homer schultz dummy. The facan’ts are lucky if they go 8-8. I’d say the odds makers got it right. The gay birds will not make the playoffs and will continue their streak of not winning a playoff game for the 5 year in a row under that stupid head coach smith.
Matt "CHOKE" Ryan
May 28th, 2012
3:32 pm
After 5 years of Winless Playoff success since the previous regime I’ll say what others are too stubborn to admit……..
The CHOKE Experiment has been a F-A-I-L-U-R-E!
You can sugar coat it all you like but it has been 9 seasons since this franchise won their last playoff win.
You can continue to hate Vick all you want, but he still remains the LAST qb to win a playoff game for this franchise.
In the meanwhile this franchise is now regressed years behind the Ravens and Joe Flacco. The Ravens didn’t overpay Flacco like this franchise has with CHOKE. The money that was thrown away on CHOKE was more than they paid for Turner, Gonzalez, Roddy and Julio combined.
After this season Dimitroff/Smitty/CHOKE will be packing and this franchise will have to start over again in hopes of erasing the hold that Vick apparently still has on the city and community.
Sorry guys but CHOKE is a bust
Matt "CHOKE" Ryan
May 28th, 2012
3:34 pm
Smith showed his insecurities when he tried to physically attack an opposing player.
That is total classless
Matt "CHOKE" Ryan
May 28th, 2012
7:54 pm
What happened to all the 2008 Hype?
Whadda Ya Know?
May 31st, 2012
7:27 am
If they focus on winning all eight home games they’d only need to win two or three to have a 10 or 11 win season. If our offense can keep all of our opponents guessing this year we will win a lot of game. If we can have 10+ win seasons with Mularkey, I’m sure Koetter can’t be any worse. Defense should stop the 3rd down bleeding this year so they will contribute to keep opponents time of possession down. We keep the ball, long drives and score TDs (NO FGs) and we win.
Whadda Ya Know?
May 31st, 2012
8:06 am
How sweet would it be to play in the Superbowl at our most hated rival’s house? If I were Smitty, he should get the team fired up with that…we can play the SB in the Lousyana Stank Dome.
sainthiram
May 31st, 2012
8:34 pm
thats because goodell said no way to atl .hosting a superbowl in that circus tent y’all have for a stadium. i’ve been there-it’s like a rap concert and then all of a sudden a football game breaks out and the fans bail at haltime after having walked in , in the middle of the 1st qtr.
Matt "CHOKE" Ryan
June 2nd, 2012
11:28 am
Whadda Ya Know?
May 31st, 2012
8:06 am
How sweet would it be to play in the Superbowl at our most hated rival’s house? If I were Smitty, he should get the team fired up with that…we can play the SB in the Lousyana Stank Dome.
_______________________________________________
You really should put down the crack pipe. Trying scoring in the playoffs first
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[...] Falcons are being unjustly disrespected heading into the 2012 NFL season. Both Warren Sapp and Vegas expect the Falcons to miss the playoffs this year, and a couple of Falcons players are mysteriously [...]
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Sister Teresa
June 3rd, 2012
3:34 pm
Choke, son, you ought to have a doctor look at that.