Braves will be better off if they’re more aggressive on base
Michael Bourn will do a lot of running for the Braves this season, but the entire team needs to be more aggressive on the basepaths than last year. (Jason Getz/AJC)
LAKE BUENA VISTA, Fla. – The Braves believe one thing that gives them hope this season is that, no matter how many knocks and pings they encounter over 162 games, the road can’t possibly be littered with as many engine parts as we witnessed during last rites last September. But what if it happens again?
What if Jason Heyward in Year 3 isn’t much better than Jason Heyward in Year 2. What if Dan Uggla flails for too many weeks, Brian McCann wilts and this time Martin Prado develops, I dunno, gout? The Braves need a safety net. Actually, what they need is a new mindset.
Most expected this club to become more aggressive last season under manager Fredi Gonzalez. That didn’t happen. If the Braves’ offense wasn’t quite the sit-back-and-wait-for-the-long-ball team we had come to know in the 1990s, they certainly didn’t epitomize small ball. More like dead ball.
Their pitching staff ranked fourth in the majors in ERA (3.48) and batting average (.240). Making the playoffs never should have come down to the season’s final spasm. But the Braves were buried by an offense that ranked 22nd in runs scored (641), 26th in batting average (.243) and 27th in stolen bases (77). This isn’t all about injuries and slumps. It’s fundamentals: hitting a grounder when needed, hitting a sacrifice fly when needed, advancing runners, taking an extra base.
Four important members of the Braves' lineup: Brian McCann, Michael Bourn, Chipper Jones and Jason Heyward. (Jason Getz/AJC)
The Braves whiffed at so many “situational hitting” crucial times last season: .249 with runners in scoring position, .219 with a runner on third and two outs. The firing of hitting coach Larry Parrish didn’t come as a surprise.
But this isn’t just about clutch moments. The team seldom made opponents uncomfortable in the field.
“We want to put a little pressure on teams any way we can,” said first-base coach Terry Pendleton, who in the mid- to late-1980s played for a team, St. Louis, that excelled in manufacturing runs out of little. “We have some speed. We have guys who can take the extra base. We just need to start doing that. I hope we’re going to be more aggressive this season. But it’s a mindset, and it has to start here [in spring training].”
It starts with Michael Bourn. This will be the first time the Braves enter a season with speed at the top of the batting order since Rafael Furcal. Bourn, acquired at the trade deadline last season, played in less than one-third of the Braves’ games (53), yet led the team in stolen bases (22). He will tell you that he has been fast “ever since I came out of the womb.”
But this is about more than speed. Bourn is only the centerpiece of an adjusted floor plan. Baseball has changed. Chemically aided power numbers are diminishing. As Gonzalez said, “The days of just sitting around and, bop, playing slow-pitch softball are over with for a lot of the reasons you know [performance-enhancing drugs].”
No team has done it better than the Cardinals. The Braves aren’t built like those Whitey Herzog teams, but they can bring elements of that mindset to their game, and they need to.
“In St. Louis, we knew what we were and weren’t capable of doing, and we had to stretch that out,” Pendleton said. “We had guys with speed, we were able to put the ball in play, and when you have that, you’re able to put pressure on other clubs.
“The only way we were going to score runs was with our legs. So we tried to take advantage of that, whether it was push-bunting, hitting a ground ball to second to get a runner to third, squeezing him home, going from first to third, stretching out a single to a double. We had to do those things — and we had to do it starting in spring training, whether we got thrown out or not.”
Something will go wrong this season. It always does. But an aggressive approach doesn’t have to change. That’s something the Braves have lacked.
By Jeff Schultz
Previous columns from Braves camp
• Chipper Jones takes shots at drug cheaters (but he considered it too)
• Hanson ready to move on with a new delivery (and a new car)
• Braves convinced everything can’t go wrong again
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150 comments Add your comment
90's R&B
February 28th, 2012
8:09 pm
Hopefully ST will fix alot of the mistakes made with the run game. Remember new coach and our top end speed didn’t come to team till later in the year, We need the overall upgrade starting with the pitchers bunting better, making the other teams pitchers throwing to first more, and having the backside baserunner taking more advantage of the play in front of him. It’ll be great to see us create runs and stay in scoring position n stay out of doubleplays,
FJR
February 28th, 2012
8:10 pm
The problem is that we really only have one guy who is a good base stealer, Bourn. For all Constanz’s speed he isn’t even a good baserunner, he gets bad breaks and runs into a lot of outs. Bunts, hit and runs, etc, we did all of that much more last year than in previous years and it didn’t yield the results you’re after.
My original point wasn’t that you were saying we should be more aggressive at the plate, my point is that if we were simply less aggressive at the plate, we would be fine. Trying to become a ‘running team’ isn’t the answer. We should let Bourn run, but that’s about it.
Longtime Brave Fan
February 28th, 2012
8:19 pm
Taking an extra base and 1st to 3rd falls more into the smart baserunning category than aggressive baserunning. Havent they been taught those principles since tee ball? I’m saying now that we have game changing, impactful, intimidating speed we can use it to our benefit. Pitchers will now have to adjust their pitching strategy and our bats will know it. Advantage us.
Longtime Brave Fan
February 28th, 2012
8:24 pm
Hopefully Bourne can mentor Constanza and allow him to smarter on the paths. I still like the changeup he offers when he’ s in the lineup. With Bourn, Constanza, and Pastornicky in the lineup at the same time, we will definitely have some wheels that teams have to adjust to!!
Tim
February 28th, 2012
8:26 pm
FJR – We have a couple guys that can steal bases. Jason Heyward in his short career is 20 for 28. But he’s a good enough baserunner that he can swipe 20 bags easily. Pastornicky had 27 steals in 38 attempts last year in the minors. But he can be expected to improve on that percentage. McCann has proven you can get a few steals a year if you pick your spots right. He’s 20 for 27 in his career. Chipper Jones even at his advanced age is still good for 4 or 5 swipes. No reason to think the Braves aren’t capable of being more aggressive on the bases without giving away outs and runs.
Mark. (another one)
February 28th, 2012
8:39 pm
Stats are great for understanding the past and a great aid in evaluating performance, but they aren’t always predictive. I love to look at stats but I enjoy baseball more.
The Braves need to do a better job of getting on base, and if they can pressure a defense, all the better. Stealing bases is not the only way to pressure a defense. Sometimes it’s taking the extra base or being able to go from first to third. Heyward is not often mentioned when it comes to speed but he demonstrated it often before last year.
phil
February 28th, 2012
8:47 pm
George Stein is Shaun.
GT Alum
February 28th, 2012
9:08 pm
When did Braves’ aggressiveness on base paths get them in trouble? That definitely wasn’t the issue last year.
You sure about that? The Braves’ SB stats for the last 4 years:
2011 77/121=63.6%
2010 63/92=68.5%
2009 58/84=69%
2008 58/85=69%
The Braves were more aggressive on the bases last year, by about 30 attempts, but their success rate dropped by 5%. Since all other things weren’t equal, it’s hard to assess the overall impact, but there’s definitely evidence that running for the sake of running is NOT a good policy for the Braves. Obviously, that wasn’t THE issue, but it could’ve been an issue.
If the base is there for the taking, then, yeah, it’d be foolish to not take it, but I’ll take smart baserunning over aggressive baserunning any day.
Mitchell
February 28th, 2012
9:11 pm
Brilliant insight. Incidentally, the Braves would also be better off if they won more than nine games in September.
bravesfan1960
February 28th, 2012
9:13 pm
Wow Jeff!! You should be a manager! You know more than Freddie, Bobby, Terry and Joe! You should quit writing and start managing!
Longtime Brave Fan
February 28th, 2012
9:18 pm
Let’s not argue about the definition of “aggressive baserunning”. I think we can all get excited that our improvement in overall team speed will provide a more exciting product. It’s just nice to see we have multiple degrees of speed threats in our arsenal now.
braveslover
February 28th, 2012
9:32 pm
Taking the extra base???? What team is TP talking about cuz it’s certainly not the Braves with Freeman, Chipper, Prado, McCann, Heyward (who will break his fingers or wrist going in head first), Uggs (no way). Let’s just face it we have NO team speed. Being smart on the bases will help but will not increase speed. Situational hitting…don’t talk to Uggs (Mr. I’ve bonked all my life and I’m not going to change now, McCann (Mr. let me lay down a bunt and still get thrown out when the infield shifts), Heyward (Mr. there is only half a field that I need to use so you can hear my ping), Pastornisky (Mr. can anyone tell me where the throw up bucket is). It’s going to be a long season, not particularly fun to watch, frustrating as the devil, buy I’m along for the ride anyway.
FJR
February 28th, 2012
10:00 pm
@Tim
Pastornicky may eventually improve on his minor league numbers, but expecting him to improve his minor league numbers while moving to MLB, with MLB catchers and pitchers? That seems questionable at best.
While McCann has a decent rate, you also can’t be serious about him being a good base stealer. He steals like 3-5 bases per year, in situations where they are rarely important, simply because the pitcher doesn’t care.
Heyward is okay, and he MIGHT steal 15-20, and he’s a smart baserunner, but we’re reaching here. When you cite Brian McCann in a post saying the Braves have good base stealers, you’re kidding yourself.
Typical Whiny Atlanta fan
February 28th, 2012
10:02 pm
Freddi sucks. Chipper is fat. They don’t have anyone good. The sky is falling. BOO HOO! Cry Cry Cry.
Typical Whiny Atlanta fan
February 28th, 2012
10:02 pm
Freddi sucks. Chipper is fat. They don’t have anyone good. The sky is falling. BOO HOO! Cry Cry Cry.
..An inmate at a correctional facility
February 28th, 2012
10:04 pm
Barely a week into Spring Training, and already dropping like flies. Doesnt look good Chipper Jones looks like the healthy one in this bunch of chokers.
JSS
February 28th, 2012
10:09 pm
@ HillbillyD… Co-sign!
These guys would have had a stroke watching pre-1968 baseball! Really want to blow their mind? Get a time machine and take them to an old Negro league game!
@ Jeff Schultz
February 28th, 2012
6:23 pm
“George Stein — You lost me.”
Just be glad that you didn’t try to get him to know the difference between a “quality” and to “quantity.” It is like watching a room full of flat-earthers seeing transmissions from the Moon for the first time!
… On Sonny Clusters…
Dude is genius, you just can’t lie to him anymore, thus he snarks at the farce that is post-2001 Chipper Jones and the post Ted Turner Atlanta Braves… It is just a shell, kinda like the 1965 NY Yankees!
Shaun
February 28th, 2012
11:22 pm
The Cardinals were one of the slowest, least-aggressive teams in the league on the bases. Yet, they led the league in runs scored and runs per game. They led the league in both OBP and SLG.
This is not about sabermetrics. Yes, I suppose we can say the fact that OBP and SLG have always, throughout the history of baseball, correlated with runs scored better than any sort of measure of base-running is some sort of sabermetric principal. No matter what you label it, it’s fact. If a team gets on-base at a better rate than other teams and slugs higher than other teams, they will certainly scored runs more than most teams. That will happen. That’s very different from x number of clouds in the sky meaning it may rain but it may not rain. There is no team in history that have gotten on base and slugged well but didn’t score runs.
Yes, in a very narrow way, we can say all of this is about statistics. But if you could somehow measure how great a team is at getting on base and slugging without using stats, it would still be evidence that the best on-base and slugging teams are the best run-scoring team. Really, stats are just the measures. But the reality is that a team that can get on base and slug, even if you like stats or not, is going to score runs. And a team that runs the bases well, may or may not score runs. It all depends on what that team does at the plate much more so than what they do on the bases. That’s not to say base-running doesn’t make any difference. It’s just that base-running isn’t going to make nearly the difference that getting on base and slugging will make and certain merely being aggressive doesn’t guarantee they’ll be better.
Runnin
February 29th, 2012
12:46 am
“The Braves believe one thing that gives them hope this season is that, no matter how many knocks and pings they encounter over 162 games, the road can’t possibly be littered with as many engine parts as we witnessed during last rites last September. But what if it happens again?”
Looks like it’s already happening. Who will go down next???
Tim
February 29th, 2012
3:03 am
[i]GT Alum
February 28th, 2012
9:08 pm
You sure about that? The Braves’ SB stats for the last 4 years:
2011 77/121=63.6%
2010 63/92=68.5%
2009 58/84=69%
2008 58/85=69%
The Braves were more aggressive on the bases last year, by about 30 attempts, but their success rate dropped by 5%. Since all other things weren’t equal, it’s hard to assess the overall impact, but there’s definitely evidence that running for the sake of running is NOT a good policy for the Braves. Obviously, that wasn’t THE issue, but it could’ve been an issue.
If the base is there for the taking, then, yeah, it’d be foolish to not take it, but I’ll take smart baserunning over aggressive baserunning any day.[/i]
How many of those caught stealings last season was the result of missed bunts and hits & runs? I would say at least half if not more.
Nothing But The Truth
February 29th, 2012
6:09 am
Bourn, Prado, Heyward, Pastornicky and Constanza should have the green light from Day One.
DetroitBraves
February 29th, 2012
7:43 am
Prado’s not that great a base stealer, is he? In his career he’s stolen 13 and been caught 15 times.
@Shaun, I think you’re right. I don’t know if Jeff meant his rain example to describe variability – that statistics isn’t fortune telling – or if he was talking about unmeasured covariates. Unmeasured covariates is a legitimate concern, and one for which at times we may well want to cut a manager a little slack for doing something slightly different from what the numbers would indicate. Variability is just a fact of life. That in some given instance the expected result isn’t realized doesn’t mean that it isn’t the high probability play. There are no guarantees but over time you’ll be much better off chosing the path with a higher likelihood of success.
meh
February 29th, 2012
8:23 am
they need to be more agressive on the bases and less agressive at the plate.
Call it like it is
February 29th, 2012
8:29 am
Tell you what I will stick with watching the Rome Braves, young men who still have heart and interested more in the game, then what car they are going to buy next or how much they charge for their autograph. I will turn on the Atlanta Braves around the end of Sept to see how they are doing. Could bet it will be the same as it has been for the last 2 decades. CHOKE! 1000 Division wins, 1 ring, pitiful.
Con E Slusters
February 29th, 2012
8:43 am
Being more aggressive on the base paths is what everyone wants . . . you can be aggressive without swinging at everything. Take a walk, steal a base or two, hitter can be patient and still be aggressive!!! When you get on, that’s when the speed pays off . . . force the opposition into making THE PLAY or committing an error . . . big innings can turn a game around QUICK . . . it’s sickening to watch someone get on base and just stand there and wait for a MIRACLE to bring him in. MAKE IT HAPPEN, much better chance if you are in the ATTACK MODE rather than waiting for the batter to homer! Yes you will get thrown out sometimes but then as you learn by doing . . . GOOD THINGS start happening.
Jared
February 29th, 2012
8:51 am
What an idiotic article. The Braves suffered last year because they were TOO aggressive. Their approach at the plate was MUCH LESS patient last year and their BB numbers were way down.
Aggression at the plate is an old timers way of showing he knows little about the current Tate of the game. Let me guess… RBI is your favorite stat…
Go watch Moneyball, Jeff, and invite Frediot to watch with you.
(And for the record, hitting with RISP has ZERO to do with being aggressive at the plate.)
Don
February 29th, 2012
8:55 am
I assume that Mr. Schultz is talkin about being more agressive on the bases, NOT more agressive at the plate.
The On Base Average for the Braves is absurd as are their Strikeout totals (esptcially for a team that is basically not a team of great power hitters).
For their offense to be productive the Braves must:
Significantly improve the On Base Averages
And concentrate on making solid contact instead of trying to be power hitters.
Ted M
February 29th, 2012
9:55 am
“The firing of hitting coach Larry Parrish didn’t come as a surprise.”
Um…It came as a surprise to Fredi Gonzalez!
Dr. Phil
February 29th, 2012
10:05 am
Chipper Jones has a honkeytonk pallor. No wonder he got sunburned.
Sonny Clusters
February 29th, 2012
10:31 am
Ted M, that’s right! We was wondering if Fredi really knows what is going on? Do you think Frank Wren or some homeboy upstairs is making decisions on the field? Do you suppose that was really Schuerholz writing uh, Chipper’s Diary? We think under that nice 3-piece suit he may be wearing hunting clothes. What if Schuerholz turned out to be a Buck Commander?
Sonny Clusters
February 29th, 2012
10:35 am
Breaking News! A University of Georgia soccer player is charged with trying to steal an order of hashbrown potatoes in her pants. And here we are talking about something as silly as baserunning.
Base Stealer
February 29th, 2012
10:45 am
It’s hard to steal 2nd when your players get to first only 25% of the time!And the 25% are usually the guys that can’t run!
Mike
February 29th, 2012
10:52 am
Prado won’t get gout, probably scurvy
1eyedJack
February 29th, 2012
11:09 am
Sonny, how many licks does it take a Clusters to get to the center of a Tootsie Pop?
1eyedJack
February 29th, 2012
11:18 am
A gal who would stuff fried taters down her pants should never complain about a hair in her food.
Don
February 29th, 2012
11:24 am
Is the manager an Bobby Cox clone??? Perhaps, perhaps not. If so, he is not going to suddenly become a good manager. At best, he is fighting the severe handicap of his having had too many years of Bobby Cox’s influence.
DawgDad
February 29th, 2012
11:25 am
Braves more aggressive on the basepaths this year??? Outside of Bourn, Heyward, and Pastornicky, that’s just ridiculous and suicidal.
I like how you quote Pendleton, Jeff. Now, I lived in St. Louis through the 80’s and saw in person or on TV virtually every Cardinal game available. Tell me please how McCann, Freeman, Uggla, Pastornicky, Jones, Prado, and Heyward compare man-to-man or collectively with Porter/Pena, Hernandez/Clark, Herr, Ozzie, Terry, and L.Smith/Coleman in terms of base running? It’s tortises and hares. Only Bourn compares favorably with McGee and there is no knock on Heyward’s baserunning, and Pastornicky theoretically can run a bit (though not at all like an Ozzie Smith). Otherwise it is SUICIDAL for the Braves to be aggressive on the basepaths. They just don’t have the horses in terms of runners, bunters, and hit-and-run men. They have quite a few players CLOGGING UP the basepaths, for certain.
Robert
February 29th, 2012
11:31 am
The article about Brian McCann feeling responsible for last season’s collapse bodes well for this season.
Not that it was actually all McCann’s fault. It was of course NOT all his doing.
But I love him stepping up and claiming accountability for failure
That is not something I EVER saw or heard Chipper Jones or Bobby Cox do
Maybe, just maybe, for the first time in twenty years, this team might have an EFFECTIVE leader
what of it?
February 29th, 2012
11:50 am
They should get rid of Snitker. We’re the only team in baseball where a man on second shouldn’t be considered scoring position.
JSS
February 29th, 2012
11:53 am
As long as Chipper is in that locker room, no one in the regular line-up can elevate to the position of “effective leader.” He’ll undermine it in every way possible… But hats off to McCann, said it last year that he needed to put on those pants and take over that position… It is too bad that the Braves front office keeps it from happening by enabling Jones…
JoeFan
February 29th, 2012
11:55 am
Problem with being aggressive is you have to get on base to begin with and that is something these Braves will have difficulty doing. Unless the offensive trend from last year is reversed the only thing that will keep these Braves in the game will be pitching. As constructed this is just not a good offensive team.
morehouse man
February 29th, 2012
12:08 pm
this is why terry pendleton should have been the manager instead of fredi gon
Therut
February 29th, 2012
12:10 pm
Please, no more reports on how great Heyward is going to be this year. I am tired of throwing up. Where are the commercials of him banging up the cars in the parking lot? Maybe they can put the cars at second base. I’ll get excited when they get rid of the Bobby Cox’s clone, FG.
Sonny Clusters
February 29th, 2012
1:17 pm
We’re not the only one showing Chipper the love on this blog. We was wondering if maybe some fand didn’t agree with us and we was hoping we could hear from some real team leaders rather than tiresome old Chipper Jones who never, never would accept any responsibility for a collapse. In his deer mind it is always someone else who is responsible. The Braves are our team and we pull for them like crazy but it is time to stop taking their crap about the championship baseball and remember the EPIC Collapse and the failure(s) to make it to or advance in the playoffs with BobbyBall, FrediBall, and Chipper Jones as team leader sitting out when the going gets tough.
Bama Mike
February 29th, 2012
1:31 pm
Lets see the middle of the line up is clogged up with the fat guy with two bad knees at third, Our catcher who looks like he is running on the heels of both feet. Freeman never was fast and now nursing a bad knee. Ugga ok speed. I know nothing about the new guy at short. Heard Wren on sports talk and if you just woke up from a 25 year coma you would have thought we were going for a 3 peat. Just not ready to buy what the Braves are selling us for 2012
goldentornado
February 29th, 2012
1:33 pm
Don’t let empirical data get in the way of good editorial. Read Moneyball and for the love of God read Bill James, he’s been right since 1989.
Bama Mike
February 29th, 2012
1:47 pm
And could someone tell the Braves and management to shut up about the collapse. Today McCann says it was his fault. History never accomplished anything going forward. Appears they are going to continue to discuss it until August.
Stinger2
February 29th, 2012
2:02 pm
Clusters is on the verge of a complete collapse. He continues to spew his seemingly hatred of the Braves organization (particularly Chipper) without any letup.
Clusters: You have been heard. The blog writers have
commented on your dislike for the Braves. Go find someone or some other team to write about. By the way, the UGA scoocer player needs our prayers instead of your comments.
JSS
February 29th, 2012
2:40 pm
Oh please, Clusters is only thing that makes the insuperability of a core section of Braves fans tolerable… When the Braves get serious about winning again, doesn’t matter? I guess that when Clusters gave them support when they didn’t deserve it in 2006 means nothing to your ilk? He’s entitled to his rant as much you DOB boot lickers!
Maria Johnson
March 2nd, 2012
7:21 pm
I guess I missed something judging by the comments. To be aggressive on base, they have to reach base. Being aggressive on base has nothing to do with being aggressive at hitting. They do need to take more walks and then when they reach base, steal more bases, cause the pitchers to make a mistake by getting on their nerves. That could lead to them throwing a bad pitch to the hitter or while trying to throw a runner out, make an error and thus the runner advances. Cause the pitcher to commit a balk too. This is something they need Otis Nixon to teach them. He was really good at doing that.