Braves will be better off if they’re more aggressive on base
Michael Bourn will do a lot of running for the Braves this season, but the entire team needs to be more aggressive on the basepaths than last year. (Jason Getz/AJC)
LAKE BUENA VISTA, Fla. – The Braves believe one thing that gives them hope this season is that, no matter how many knocks and pings they encounter over 162 games, the road can’t possibly be littered with as many engine parts as we witnessed during last rites last September. But what if it happens again?
What if Jason Heyward in Year 3 isn’t much better than Jason Heyward in Year 2. What if Dan Uggla flails for too many weeks, Brian McCann wilts and this time Martin Prado develops, I dunno, gout? The Braves need a safety net. Actually, what they need is a new mindset.
Most expected this club to become more aggressive last season under manager Fredi Gonzalez. That didn’t happen. If the Braves’ offense wasn’t quite the sit-back-and-wait-for-the-long-ball team we had come to know in the 1990s, they certainly didn’t epitomize small ball. More like dead ball.
Their pitching staff ranked fourth in the majors in ERA (3.48) and batting average (.240). Making the playoffs never should have come down to the season’s final spasm. But the Braves were buried by an offense that ranked 22nd in runs scored (641), 26th in batting average (.243) and 27th in stolen bases (77). This isn’t all about injuries and slumps. It’s fundamentals: hitting a grounder when needed, hitting a sacrifice fly when needed, advancing runners, taking an extra base.
Four important members of the Braves' lineup: Brian McCann, Michael Bourn, Chipper Jones and Jason Heyward. (Jason Getz/AJC)
The Braves whiffed at so many “situational hitting” crucial times last season: .249 with runners in scoring position, .219 with a runner on third and two outs. The firing of hitting coach Larry Parrish didn’t come as a surprise.
But this isn’t just about clutch moments. The team seldom made opponents uncomfortable in the field.
“We want to put a little pressure on teams any way we can,” said first-base coach Terry Pendleton, who in the mid- to late-1980s played for a team, St. Louis, that excelled in manufacturing runs out of little. “We have some speed. We have guys who can take the extra base. We just need to start doing that. I hope we’re going to be more aggressive this season. But it’s a mindset, and it has to start here [in spring training].”
It starts with Michael Bourn. This will be the first time the Braves enter a season with speed at the top of the batting order since Rafael Furcal. Bourn, acquired at the trade deadline last season, played in less than one-third of the Braves’ games (53), yet led the team in stolen bases (22). He will tell you that he has been fast “ever since I came out of the womb.”
But this is about more than speed. Bourn is only the centerpiece of an adjusted floor plan. Baseball has changed. Chemically aided power numbers are diminishing. As Gonzalez said, “The days of just sitting around and, bop, playing slow-pitch softball are over with for a lot of the reasons you know [performance-enhancing drugs].”
No team has done it better than the Cardinals. The Braves aren’t built like those Whitey Herzog teams, but they can bring elements of that mindset to their game, and they need to.
“In St. Louis, we knew what we were and weren’t capable of doing, and we had to stretch that out,” Pendleton said. “We had guys with speed, we were able to put the ball in play, and when you have that, you’re able to put pressure on other clubs.
“The only way we were going to score runs was with our legs. So we tried to take advantage of that, whether it was push-bunting, hitting a ground ball to second to get a runner to third, squeezing him home, going from first to third, stretching out a single to a double. We had to do those things — and we had to do it starting in spring training, whether we got thrown out or not.”
Something will go wrong this season. It always does. But an aggressive approach doesn’t have to change. That’s something the Braves have lacked.
By Jeff Schultz
Previous columns from Braves camp
• Chipper Jones takes shots at drug cheaters (but he considered it too)
• Hanson ready to move on with a new delivery (and a new car)
• Braves convinced everything can’t go wrong again
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150 comments Add your comment
Jeff Schultz
February 28th, 2012
6:06 pm
Ugh — “this is so stupid. the reason the braves didn’t score last year is because they had a .308 OBP. they need to be LESS aggressive. take walks. work counts. ”
Wow. Am I not speaking English? Aggressive on base paths. … So who’s stupid now? (but then with a name like Ugh).
Jeff Schultz
February 28th, 2012
6:07 pm
Just starting to go through comments. We’ve got some really dumb people on here. (Not you, the other guy.)
Jeff Schultz
February 28th, 2012
6:09 pm
To those on Constanza — Yes, because of his speed, he’s a guy you can be aggressive with on bases. Just not sure how much he’s going to play though.
Preston
February 28th, 2012
6:10 pm
you dummies, Jeff Shultz is saying more aggressive on the basepaths, and more aggressive on doing the little things, like hitting the sac fly, moving a runner over, etc. He’s not saying that we should swing at everything that is pitched. Seriously, read before you comment. Otherwise you’re uninformed. Good article Jeff!
Jeff Schultz
February 28th, 2012
6:10 pm
Sonny — Clusters is not a big Chipper guy, is he?
Bob the Blogger
February 28th, 2012
6:10 pm
It seems like the Braves had good on-base percentages when TP was the batting coach. Maybe he wasn’t as bad as some of us thought. The best hitters have the batting eye and self discipline to wait on a decent pitch to hit instead of swinging at balls and pitchers’ strikes.
Jeff Schultz
February 28th, 2012
6:11 pm
Sam — asked and answered. (Maybe I need to change headline.)
George Stein
February 28th, 2012
6:12 pm
Every single one of those things reduces the number of runs scored, Preston. Karl Hungus addressed the folly of base stealing. The other two things you mentioned give away outs. No, thank you.
Bill
February 28th, 2012
6:13 pm
Another good report Jeff..Thanks
I look forward to the Braves running more and I believe they will hit alot better with Greg Walker as hitting coach.
Jeff Schultz
February 28th, 2012
6:13 pm
Thanks Preston. But it’s more fun for Sabermetric geeks who know everything there is to know about baseball to mock behind phony screen names. Because, let’s face it, they are the superior beings.
Preston
February 28th, 2012
6:15 pm
You’re welcome Jeff. Over the last week, you’ve written some killer articles. Keep up the great work. Gets me excited for baseball!
Jeff Schultz
February 28th, 2012
6:15 pm
Bob the Blogger – TP was obviously superior to Larry Parrish. But players seem to have taken to Greg Walker.
"Chef" Tim Dix
February 28th, 2012
6:16 pm
At one point last season, BMac led the team in steals. Ruthless aggression I say.
Sam
February 28th, 2012
6:16 pm
Aggression on the base-paths can often be dumb as well. You have to be successful a certain amount of time for it to make sense. Braves wasted tons of outs being aggressive last year with the wrong personnel. So no even talking about the base-paths an aggressive mindset is not always wise. Wasting outs is the far more egregious sin in baseball.
Preston
February 28th, 2012
6:16 pm
haha, this is obviously true..!
Jeff Schultz
February 28th, 2012
6:17 pm
Chef Tim — Hah. Funny on BMac.
Jeff Schultz
February 28th, 2012
6:19 pm
Sam — When did Braves’ aggressiveness on base paths get them in trouble? That definitely wasn’t the issue last year.
Sonny Clusters
February 28th, 2012
6:19 pm
EDITORIAL: When we was a little baby we was, like all baby Clusters, handsome as all get out. We had curly hair and dimples and big brown eyes and the girls wouldn’t leave us alone. We got bigger and even better looking and our game developed and we could run, throw, and hit better than any of the others on our team. That’s when we first started wearing sunscreen when we’d go out on the field. We wanted to stay good looking with smooth skin and not develop skin cancer. Sunscreen was just the thing to help us stay handsome. Now, we never was considered a “sissy” by anybody but we’ve been reading that Chipper says sunscreen is for sissies. Well, that’s just wrong. We don’t call Chipper a sissy when he dresses up like Rambo and paints his face with camouflage makeup and eye black so the deers won’t see him in the woods. Calling somebody a sissy is serious stuff.
George Stein
February 28th, 2012
6:22 pm
Any other other straw men you want to throw out there, Jeff?
Jeff Schultz
February 28th, 2012
6:23 pm
George Stein — You lost me.
George Stein
February 28th, 2012
6:26 pm
Geeks? Superior beings? Know everything?
C’mon. You’re better than that.
Sam
February 28th, 2012
6:27 pm
Did you miss the dreadful hit and runs with Prado or Freeman and Uggla? Forcing aggression with slow personnel hurts you more than it helps. Braves have very few players who should be taking that extra base if there is substantial risk of an out.
abby normal
February 28th, 2012
6:28 pm
Good luck with this approach! Fredi is not an agressive manager; he plays not to lose as opposed to going for the jugular.
bulldogbubba
February 28th, 2012
6:29 pm
Too bad you think a productive player won’t get playing time over someone who thinks they have earned a spot just because they “think” they are good. If heyward comes out slow Constanza needs to be in the line-up.With him and Bourne in the line-up we have a better chance to score some runs.Fredi says he will put the best team on the field or does he not follow thru like some of our older players?
Sam
February 28th, 2012
6:33 pm
Constanza’s speed on the base paths is not as asset, bulldog. He gets caught way too much thereby wasting an out.
Sonny Clusters
February 28th, 2012
6:35 pm
Too tight caps can affect the mindset. Wait! We’re not talking mindset anymore. Now that we’re all talking aggressive base running we should qualify . . . is this bases 2 and 3 and the plate? We’d like to see some aggressive running to first and maybe we will this year. After that, it will depend on who is on base because there’s not much speed there. We suspect Constanza will be forgotten. One thing, you can’t play successful BobbyBall and hit 3-run homers without 2 runners on base.
Jeff Schultz
February 28th, 2012
6:36 pm
George Stein — I’m better than that? Maybe. … I’ll say this: I get positive/negative comments from fans of all sports. Baseball fans are by far the most, I’m not sure if obstinate the right word or not, but guys who are obsessed with stats and Sabermetrics are by far closed to any other opinions than any other fans in sports. … I love all fans for their passion. That’s just my opinion on stat guys. And, in full disclosure, I’ve never been a huge stat guy (obviously).
Jeff Schultz
February 28th, 2012
6:38 pm
Sam — Hit-and-runs with Prado, Bourn, Heyward, Constanza, Diaz, Pastornicky certainly not an issue. Freeman, no. Uggla, not maybe.
Jeff Schultz
February 28th, 2012
6:40 pm
Abby Normal — (love any Young Frankenstein reference). …
“Good luck with this approach! Fredi is not an agressive manager; he plays not to lose as opposed to going for the jugular.”
<< Well, it’ll be interesting to watch then.
Jeff Schultz
February 28th, 2012
6:42 pm
Bulldogbubba — Constanza shouldn’t be a regular starter. If he is there’s a problem. … Stunned by how many folks have completely jumped off the Jason Heyward bandwagon. Plan to address this tomorrow.
bulldogbubba
February 28th, 2012
6:43 pm
@ Sam- thanks for the info.Did not realize that was Constanza’s “mo”.We need productive play.So my question is why don’t we develop his talent to achieve the goal of scoring runs.
George Stein
February 28th, 2012
6:46 pm
Couple things, Jeff, and I’ll let it go.
First, everyone who follows a sport is a stat guy. The question is what stats you find valuable. I think the sabermetric types (of which I am one) got these views because we are open to other views, not closed to them. We see facts, though, and become frustrated by people who are presented with these facts and ignore them. In my opinion, the nature of baseball (being an individual sport masquerading as a team sport) makes these facts easier to identify and, thus, makes us more frustrated, which yields the so-called obstinence.
bulldogbubba
February 28th, 2012
6:52 pm
Jeff – I would like nothing better than to see Heyward come back with the rookie season form.Would we give him as much time to develop or redifine himself as we did Francouer.Couldn’t we platoon them until Heyward blossoms again?
DetroitBraves
February 28th, 2012
6:57 pm
Jeff, I think it’s absolutely fine that you aren’t a big stats guy. You’re a fine writer so it obviously isn’t a prerequisite. But there are several people that are, maybe not to the extent of George Stein, myself and a few others out here but many of us find it interesting. And given that baseball has not been granted immunity from the central limit theorem and other fundamental statistical concepts it’s just frustrating to see the Braves do things that, at least to us, appear to be so counter-productive. I don’t disagree that at times analytical people can come across as condescending, but on the other hand the traditionalists are often defensive, if not down right insulting.
At any rate, the Braves aggression is a function of personnel. If they can realize a net gain then I’m all for it. They need to understand, for instance with base stealing, where that break point is. I would guess somewhere around 67%. And I totally agree with you on Constanza. See? We can find common ground.
Jeff Schultz
February 28th, 2012
6:59 pm
George Stein — See, now this is dialogue. So much better than just one side assuming the other side is an idiot. I’ll also let it go after this. 1) Baseball is by far the most stats-driven league of all the sports; 2) It’s far easier to get lost in the meaning (or lack of meaning) in those stats, in my opinion, especially since some folks obviously make their living in baseball stats and view them as the gospel; 3) I think you know what camp I’m in; 4) Sabermetric fans see stats as facts. But that’s not fact as in, “The sky is blue.” That might be fact as in, “There are 19 clouds above me, therefore it’s going to rain.” Guess what, it may not rain. (I just made this up on the fly, so sorry if analogy kinda weak. Best I can do on short notice.) My point is that all stats/facts don’t necessarily mean they’re evidence of something. And most important of all, your opening statement about everyone who follows sports is a stat guy is WAY overstated. Sure, people say, “Tom Brady threw all of these touchdown passes.” But they view Tom Brady more for being a winner and his leadership and cool than his TD passes. It’s not all about stats.
Jeff Schultz
February 28th, 2012
7:00 pm
DetroitBraves — We shall overcome . . .
Najeh Davenpoop
February 28th, 2012
7:03 pm
“this is so stupid. the reason the braves didn’t score last year is because they had a .308 OBP. they need to be LESS aggressive. take walks. work counts.”
Co-sign.
It all starts with getting on base. For the love of God stop swinging at the first or second pitch. Make pitchers work. Get their pitch counts up to 100 by the 5th or 6th inning. Draw walks. Put pressure on pitchers to throw strikes.
Stinger2
February 28th, 2012
7:09 pm
Jeff: You are right on about Clusters negative comments
about Chipper lately. In fact, Clusters has taken mostly the same stance about the team in general. As a fan he has a right to his opinions however, by now we have got his messages. Granted, a few seem to like his style but I think he needs to back off his criticism or go root for the Mets.
The Truth
February 28th, 2012
7:14 pm
Schultz – welcome to 2006 (that was ATL’s first season without a legitmate speed threat, with the departure of Furcal)…your article is about 6 years late, IMO.
Hillbilly D
February 28th, 2012
7:17 pm
Braves will be better off if they’re more aggressive on base
Haven’t we had this discussion for the last 10 or 15 years?
90's R&B
February 28th, 2012
7:25 pm
Jeff- I agree with you completely. The lack of aggressive baserunning has been horrible for years and isn’t just about just talent/speed but a mindset to take every opportunity. Sid Bream . the slowest non-catcher on the roster has the franchise’s greatest moment at home plate , just by having a good secondary lead. Really tired of station to station and needing 3 sometimes 4 hits to score a run n an inning. Of course hit and runs would rarely include Freeman or Mac on base , but to have pitchers concentrate a little more on the runner than batter would be beneficial. Hell maybe whe can draw some bad throws from outfielders if we at least round the bags a little harder.
More Aggresive?
February 28th, 2012
7:36 pm
Okay, I’ll completely own up to reading aggression at the plate into the article when it wasn’t there. My bust. With all that “first pitch is the best you will see gee whiz why did I strike out on three pitchouts?” action we had going last year, you can understand the assumption. Still, I should have read more carefully.
That said, we ran into a lot of outs last year. Not looking forward to doing that even more.
Tim
February 28th, 2012
7:53 pm
I would love to see the Braves running all over the bases but I can’t get it out of my head all the botched hit & runs and bunt plays the Braves had last year. Being more aggressive on the bases isn’t going to do the Braves much good if they don’t learn to properly excute the hit & run and sac bunt.
Longtime Brave Fan
February 28th, 2012
7:54 pm
You can’t be aggressive if you don’t have respectable speed. We were not aggressive before Bourn because our “speed guy” was McClouth (who also forgot how to hit..). Let’s take full advantage of what we have now. Bourn definitely made it more exciting! I hope we can find a way to keep him. I love how other teams have to respect the speed dimension. I found the few games where Constanza batted 9th and Bourn 8th very refreshing! It was a dimension we haven’t had in a while.
Tim
February 28th, 2012
7:59 pm
Longtime Brave Fan – And don’t forget we’ve got Pastornicky now. He had 37 steals last season.
The Bravenator
February 28th, 2012
7:59 pm
Given that a guy has some talent and ability, baseball is a pretty basic thing. Know the strike zone and have an idea of what you want to do THIS at bat. See the ball–hit the ball–run like hell and don’t be stupid. Don’t try to hit every pitch 600 feet. Focus and make contact. Once the ball is in play, make something good happen. We think Sonny Clusters would acknowledge that’s how we did it when we was playin’.
Longtime Brave Fan
February 28th, 2012
7:59 pm
oops. i meant games where Constanza batted 9th and Bourn 1sth very refreshing! It was a dimension we haven’t had in a while.
Longtime Brave Fan
February 28th, 2012
8:03 pm
Absolutely Tim! I saw those stats about Pastornicky. I think our offense will definitely be more exciting this year. And I hear Pastornicky has more a more “professional bat” as compared to our last SS (words from Wrenn). Hopefefully Pastornicky will turnout to be a faster version of the Laser Show!
Lee in S GA
February 28th, 2012
8:04 pm
..finally the Schultz has come to Atlanta….
Hillbilly D
February 28th, 2012
8:08 pm
There’s a whole lot more to speed than stolen bases. Guys don’t have to be super fast to take an extra base, go from 1st to 3rd, etc.