Falcons questions: Fixing five mistakes starts with Sam Baker
Thomas Dimitroff, Arthur Blank and Mike Smith face tough decisions. (Curtis Compton/AJC)
(This is the second in a series of blogs on some Falcons’ high-profile veterans and their uncertain futures with the team.)
Last week in the opener of this cyber mini-series, I looked at the possibility of the Falcons parting ways with Michael Turner, who despite finishing third in the NFL in rushing this season was showing signs of wear and might not be worth the $5 million in salary he is due next season. It stirred a lot of debate and, honestly, I was surprised by how many folks wanted him traded or cut.
Today, I’m focusing on five mistakes (or generally perceived ones). Falcons general manager Thomas Dimitroff hasn’t made a lot of them, but there are five high-profile ones (actually, four by Dimitroff and one by then-general manager Rich McKay). Dimitroff didn’t ask for my advice, but hey, I’m not charging or anything. This time, I’ll have a series of polls so you can weigh in with your votes on each player (I neglected to put up a poll on the Turner blog).
Since the Falcons’ No. 1 concern in my view is the offensive line, let’s start with . . .
Loading ... Loading ...• Mistake No. 1: Tackle Sam Baker: In Dimitroff’s first draft in 2008, he traded two second-round picks (34th and 48th) and a fourth-rounder to Washington for the Redskins’ first-round pick (21st overall), third- and fifth-rounder. Baker was taken with the first pick. The thinking: He would be the left tackle to protect the blindside of the just-drafted quarterback, Matt Ryan. It’s
Loading ... Loading ...hard to know how much of Baker’s problems have been because of back injuries but we know he hasn’t been good. He got beat out this season by Will Svitek. Baker has one year left on his contract at $2.576,250. With option bonuses, his cap hit next year actually would be $3.7 million. The Falcons can find a cheaper backup. Easy call: Cut him.
Loading ...• Mistake No. 2. Defensive tackle Peria Jerry: He was the Falcons’ first-round pick (24th overall) in 2009, getting a five-year, $10.35 million contract with $7.55 million guaranteed. He has two sacks in three seasons and, also partly because of injuries, he just hasn’t been good enough to make an impact and win a starting job. Jerry’s base salary next season is only $845,000, though he carries a cap hit of $1.95 million. Money’s really not the issue. It’s more like: How long can the Falcons wait? More than likely, they’ll see if they can do better in the offseason before making a decision. Tough call: Stall.
• Mistake No. 3. Cornerback Dunta Robinson: He was signed in 2010 for six years, $57 million with $25.5 million guaranteed. As investments go, this would’ve been like if Arthur Blank expanded Home Depots to include a seafood buffet. Robinson never was known as a shut-down cornerback, but he certainly figured to be the best defensive back on the team and he hasn’t been (that’s Brent Grimes). He has a base salary of $6 million next season. I know. You think: Cut him! Not so fast. Of that $6 million, $5 million is guaranteed. Add signing bonus proration and these are your choices: $7.75 million to keep him, $$6.75 million to cut him. It’s not worth it. Painful call: Keep him.
• Mistake No. 4. Defensive end Ray Edwards: He played better down the stretch but still wasn’t nearly the player the Falcons expected him to be or worth the five-year, $30 million contract. Edwards clearly was affected by his late-summer knee surgery, but to what degree? In many games he seemed to disappear. His alibi: He was doing what coaches asked him to do, which explains the low sack production (3½). If that’s true, we’ll see if things change under new defensive coordinator Mike Nolan. But like Robinson, Edwards isn’t going anywhere. The Falcons would take a $3.55 million hit just to cut him and $4.555 million if he plays. Besides, it’s too early to jump ship. Easy call: Keep him.
• Mistake No. 5. Fullback Ovie Mughelli. Actually, it was then-general manager Rich McKay, at the urging of Bobby Petrino, who gave Mughelli a six-year, $18 million contract in 2007. Can he block? Yes. Did it hurt the Falcons when Mughelli was injured this season? Yes. But $3 million a year for a fullback who seldom runs or catches the ball is absurd. The cap hit will be minimal if he’s cut. The $3,733,335 hit if he plays is crazy. There are cheaper blocking backs out there. Easy call: Cut him.
There you go. The cyber-floor is yours, and the polls are up.
By Jeff Schultz
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324 comments Add your comment
Matt
January 26th, 2012
12:52 pm
Jamal Anderson much??
Eskoballa
January 26th, 2012
1:03 pm
im gona laugh my but off so hard if we do cut turner or trade him and then he explodes on another team then jeff schultz and all ya other people wanting turner gone will act like ya were against dumping him lol. as i said earlier, nomatter what running back we have they still wont be able to run. not with the crappy O-line we got. ya should ve known this was comming when ya let harvey dahl go.
Kennyd
January 26th, 2012
1:12 pm
How how they forget to mention Matt Ryan ! The Falcons are paying Big Buck for a BUST QB…..
Sid
January 26th, 2012
1:14 pm
Re: Tackle Sam Baker:
From the movie “Tombstone”:
Wyatt Earp: I just want you to know it’s over between us.
Curly Bill: Well……………………………… bye.
Sid
January 26th, 2012
1:20 pm
Kennyd January 26th, 2012 1:12 pm
How how they forget to mention Matt Ryan ! The Falcons are paying Big Buck for a BUST QB…..
**************************************************************
Kenny, Kenny, Kenny……………….the dude is ranked 10th by position, can you imagine what he could do with an offensive line??
Sid
January 26th, 2012
1:22 pm
I am really enjoying all those pictures of Drew Brees in Hawaii, the flowered shirts seem to fit him. They don’t wear those much in Indy.
Football Fan 14
January 26th, 2012
1:29 pm
Turner cannot catch, hard to be a screen team when #1 back can’t catch. Go after Ray Rice!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Sid
January 26th, 2012
1:58 pm
Peria Jerry: I’m not ready to give up on him. Let’s face it, even Jamaal Anderson improved with coaching…………..after going to the Colts.
Dunta Robinson: Keep him for fiscal reasons BUT, he tied with Grimes for Tackles and Asst, also tied for 2nd in passes defended.
Ray Edwards: I’ve got to see a lot more. Ray appeared to be taking a lot of plays off. Then I heard he was already injured when he got here so I gave that due allowance. But I’m just not sure he is what we need here, he seems a little lazy. Maybe Nolan can get his motor started.
Ovie Mughelli: Hello, please explain to me again why he is on this list. This is arguably the best fullback in the NFL……………..ever. You are gonna have to put on more than just a pair of selling shoes to get me to buy into this bs.
Slaphead
January 26th, 2012
2:01 pm
I know of several 4th-and-inches this past season that Ovie picks up. He’s much more of a bull runner than Michael Twinkle Toes Turner.
Keep Ovie. He makes the entire offense better with his blocking and short yardage abilities.
Old Dawg
January 26th, 2012
2:02 pm
What ain’t any country I ever heard of. Say what again!
Joshua
January 26th, 2012
2:06 pm
We should NOT cut Ovie! Never underestimate the value of a top tier blocking FB. Remember Lorenzo Neal? Baker, Dunta and Jerry need to GO! They’re always crying that something is hurting, lazy, and bank rolling for doing nothing! They’re as bad as my ex-wife! Ray Edwards came on late… give him another year or 2 then debate him.
Sid
January 26th, 2012
2:08 pm
My wish list if Dimitroff is gonna give up a wallet full of draft choices:
David Wilson, Running Back, Va Tech
And in some circles he is going to slip into the 2nd round but all the way to the Falcons, not likely.
wxwax
January 26th, 2012
2:13 pm
Dimitroff has done a good job.
But not a great job.
Arguably, his two whiffs on 1st round picks is the difference between going deep in the playoffs and one-and-done. Not coincidentally, both failures are injury-rpone players, and Dimitroff seems to pick a lot of those.
AlpharettaGuy
January 26th, 2012
2:14 pm
OK, kids–let’s settle down about Mr Ryan. You can’t hate the guy–he seems like a good guy & he’s really, really rich…good for him. On the other hand, he is not Brees & never will be close. He’s…an NFL starting QB, not much better & not much worse. In the playoffs when eveything is magnified, you need guys to step up. I remember Brees diving, holding the ball out & breaking the plane on 4th & 1; big Ben running for first downs on bad ankles, Tim “he can’t throw” Tebow launching bombs to beat Pittsburgh…& I remember Ryan not taking shots downfield & sliding down w/ 45 seconds to go in first half, no one touching him, in-bounds & short of first down. (And NO ONE called a time-out-That one is on the coaches.) I believe Ryan has more heart than that–he just needs more of what every successful pro athlete has & that’s confidence. Ryan Plays Like #2, I don’t disagree w/ your assessment but I think the guy can be better. Maybe Koetter can coach him up or maybe he’ll find some fire in his belly this coming year. I hope so cause we need him.
bobby
January 26th, 2012
2:28 pm
JEFF SCHULTZ
THE ONLY PERSON I WOULD KEEP OUT THE FIVE IS THE FULLBACK THE REST I WOULD LET GO SAM BAKER LET’S FACE IT MR. SCHULTZ HE IS GARBAGE. RAY EDWARDS LET’S FACE IT MR. SCHULTZ HE IS THAT GOOD EITHER. IN MINNESOTA HE BENFITED FROM JARED ALLEN, PAT WILLIAMS, AND KEVIN WILLIAMS THAT’S ALL THERE IS TO IT AND YOU AND I KNOW THAT. ROBINSON IT’S TIME FOR HIM TO GO HE HAS BEEN A BUST. AND JERRY HE’S BEEN A BUST.
JEFF SCHULTZ
ALSO I WANT YOU TO LOOK AT THE FALCONS DRAFT HISTORY SINCE 2008. MR.SCHULTZ, THE FALCONS HAVE HAD FIVE FIRST ROUND PICKS. JUILO JONES, MATT RYAN, AND SEAN WITHERSPOON ALL PANED OUT. BUT BAKER AND JERRY AIN’T DID NOTHING.
BUT WHAT HAS KILLED THE FALCONS SINCE THOMAS D BECAME GENERAL MANAGER HERE IN 2008 IS THE SCEOND ROUND ON DOWN. THERE HAVE BEEN ONLY TWO PICKS THERE THAT HAVE PANED OUT IT’S COREY PETERS AND WILL MOORE WHEN HEALTHY THE REST OF THAT INCLUDING CURTIS POFTON HAVE BEEN GARBAGE I MEAN LOFTON CAN’T COVER OR RUN MR. SCHULTZ. IN MY OPINON IT TIME FOR ARTHUR BLANK TO FIRE THOMAS D AND THE WHOLE PERSONNEL DEPARTMENT BECAUSE IT’S CLEAR THEY CAN’T DRAFT OR KNOW TALENT.
Jax Falcon/Dog Fan
January 26th, 2012
2:37 pm
AlpharettaGuy, you failed to mention Ryan’s penchant for inaccuracy. It is a given he will never be able to go deep more than occasionally in a game to keep the safeties honest. Therefore, the short game demands that he be able to hit his receivers at a much higher completion rate than he has accomplished so far. Dropped passes aside, his accuracy must improve if he is to remain a starting quarterback in this league. His leadership and toughness can not be questioned, but the big question as we go down the road is his accuracy.
BirdDroppings
January 26th, 2012
2:38 pm
HUGE SCREWUP with last years draft. Got a receiver who hasn’t shown much for draft picks we should have used for DEFENSE
Sid
January 26th, 2012
2:43 pm
Matt Ryan January 25th, 2012 9:14 pm
Chandler ultimately got beat to a pulp; to Ryan’s credit he is still standing.
*****************************************************************
You are smokin’ right on with this statement. Ryan is a lot tougher than I think he gets credit for.
Falcons to cut Dunta Robinson? – Pro Football Zone
January 26th, 2012
2:47 pm
[...] sure the Falcons would love to cut bait and move on from Robinson, but the problem is that Robinson will make a base salary of $6 million for the 2012 season. Of the $6 million he’s set to make, $5 million of it is guaranteed. [...]
Stinger
January 26th, 2012
2:50 pm
Cut Mike Smith…now that’s an easy call
AlpharettaGuy
January 26th, 2012
2:58 pm
Jax, true he’s not great on the deep ball but that’s something he can work on along w/ a lot of other stuff. I think a lot is going to fall on Koetter. Ryan is a huge investment & he is the man for years to come. Koetter & the QB coach need to help him improve his weaknesses. He’s not a bum, he’s a decent NFL QB which is saying a lot, but playing the most important position on the field demands a lot. I’m pulling for him.
DC Dirty Bird
January 26th, 2012
3:00 pm
Jax Falcon, in this league, the gold standard is 60% completion rate. Ryan has had that since year 1. I’m not sure anyone who coaches or plays the game questions Ryans overall accuracy.
Ryan #2, your logic on the playoffs is flawed. Tebow, Alex Smith, and Flacco all made the playoffs without being top 12 QB’s in the league. Jake Delhomme wasn’t a top 12 QB and played in the Super Bowl.
Sid
January 26th, 2012
3:01 pm
One of my favoirtes. If I’m not mistaken there was a request for this Pulp Fiction quote:
Jules: There’s a passage I got memorized. Ezekiel 25:17. “The path of the righteous man is beset on all sides by the inequities of the selfish and the tyranny of evil men. Blessed is he who, in the name of charity and good will, shepherds the weak through the valley of the darkness, for he is truly his brother’s keeper and the finder of lost children. And I will strike down upon thee with great vengeance and furious anger those who attempt to poison and destroy My brothers. And you will know I am the Lord when I lay My vengeance upon you.” Now… I been sayin’ that s___ for years. And if you ever heard it, that meant your ass. You’d be dead right now. I never gave much thought to what it meant. I just thought it was a cold-blooded thing to say to a m______f_____ before I popped a cap in his ass. But I saw some s___ this mornin’ made me think twice. See, now I’m thinking: maybe it means you’re the evil man. And I’m the righteous man. And Mr. 9mm here… he’s the shepherd protecting my righteous ass in the valley of darkness. Or it could mean you’re the righteous man and I’m the shepherd and it’s the world that’s evil and selfish. And I’d like that. But that s___ ain’t the truth. The truth is you’re the weak. And I’m the tyranny of evil men. But I’m tryin’, Ringo. I’m tryin’ real hard to be the shepherd.
I sometimes ask my wife if she “had the blueberry pancakes honey bunny”, she knows what I mean.
Adam
January 26th, 2012
3:23 pm
Speaking of the ‘Rise Up’ commercial….
I’m pretty sure when Jimmy Carter came on there and asked “What do Falcons do?”, that wasn’t a rhetorical question from him.
Taking a look at Thomas Dimitroff’s five biggest “mistakes” | Falcons Focus – Atlanta Falcons Blog, Opinion and Analysis
January 26th, 2012
3:32 pm
[...] his latest article for the AJC, columnist Jeff Schultz compiled what he believes is Thomas Dimitroff’s five biggest [...]
Falcon Hardy
January 26th, 2012
3:37 pm
Cut them all. WITH EACH WEAK LINK WE KEEP IS A HOLE IN OUR TEAM. FIRE TD AND SMITTY TOO. THE ONLY THING KNOWS TO DO IS WHEN HE LOOSES COMPLIMENT THE OTHER TEAM.TD IS A SMOKE AND MIRRORS TYPE GUY. dON’T FORGET RICH McKAY, HE’S ALSO DEAD WEIGHT.
SirReal
January 26th, 2012
3:46 pm
@bobby Lofton is garbage? No, your statement was garbage.lol Glad guys like you arent the GM. I dont know what you are seeing on the field….obviously not very much.LOL
Pete
January 26th, 2012
3:48 pm
It’s starting to sink in that Mr. Perfect, Thomas Dimitroff, doesn’t walk on water after all. Many of his moves have been average to downright JUNK.
SirReal
January 26th, 2012
4:16 pm
@Pete Smarmy Dimitroff isnt at all what people think. The N.E. mysitque wore off when he made the dumb move to get Julio thinking we were “just a player or two” away. His vision is impaired. Both lines are below par, his picks are injury prone/busts, and so are his free agents. If anyone needs to be under the scope, it’s ol greasy hair.LOL
boby
January 26th, 2012
5:10 pm
SIRREAL
YOU CLEARLY WAS’NT WATCHING ANY OF THE FALCONS GAMES THIS YEAR. FIRST OF ALL LOFTON IS A LIABILITY IN COVERAGE AND SECOND HE CAN”T RUN SIRREAL. YOU CLEARLY WAS’NT WATCHING THE GAMES BUDDY. THE FALCONS NEED A MIDDLE LINEBACKER WHO GO SIDELINE TO SIDELINE, RUN BETTER, AND ABLE TO COVER THE PASS AND LOFTON CLEARLY CAN’T DO NONE OF THOSE.
Sick & Tired Of Being Sick & Tired
January 26th, 2012
6:27 pm
I have been saying all along that many of the teams issues have been the result of the offensive and defensive schemes and not fully utilizing the skills of the players that we have. Hopefully the new coordinators will better utilize the talents.
I am for keeping everyone referenced in this article EXCEPT FOR SAM BAKER!!!!! He needs to be cut or hopefully traded, but I don’t know of any of the remaining teams that would be stupid enough to trade for him.
Chucktown38
January 26th, 2012
7:28 pm
You are killing me. Robinson is the best CB on the team, he is not a SOFT ZONE player unlike Grimes, who can NOT play press coverage. Grimes is gone because of it in 2012.Ovie has the same type of problem, he has all the ability in the world with coaches that don’t know how to use him.There are a lot of players who are in the same boat. I hope the new coaches will fix theses shot comings
Chucktown38
January 26th, 2012
7:31 pm
In my eyes TD has not drafted well. It is simple BIG TIME PLAYERS from BIG TIME SCHOOLS. Hell even average players from BIG TIME SCHOOLS is better than great players from small schools.
Chucktown38
January 26th, 2012
7:33 pm
We do need a RB with speed the hit the hole fast and with cruel intentions.A little attitude will go a lot way as well.
SirReal
January 26th, 2012
7:49 pm
@bobby Listen Booby, you are clearly dillusional.LOL I see that now Booby. The guy was top 5 tackling in the league and is ALWAYS seen at the ball.LOL I’m sure a lot of others teams will love to have that kind of “slowness” you speak of Booby. I was clearly watching sir…he’s not too far from Willis and other top tier MLBs. He’s earned his keep since he’s been here.lol
Eric
January 26th, 2012
9:38 pm
lets get the Oklahoma State Quarterback in the fourth round. Matty Freeze Up needs someone to push him for the number one QB job.
Ray Edwards is the only keeper in the JIVE FIVE!!!! He is fair against the run.
Eric
January 26th, 2012
9:49 pm
Grimes will end up playing against us in our division. Watch for Carolina or Tampa to grab him. Ronde Barber is getting old and Grimes would be a great fit.
Mo
January 26th, 2012
10:09 pm
Pro Football Focus graded Dunta Robinson 101st of 109 qualifying cornerbacks in 2011. Robinson ranked an even worse 105th in pass coverage.
walknbalk
January 27th, 2012
1:48 am
Schultz,
Dunta was misused in the previous BVG schemes. He will thrive in press coverage under Nolan.
BIG JIM
January 27th, 2012
8:08 am
what idiot on the falcons staff want to cut ovie,The one that said that they need to be cut themself..
vesaversa
January 27th, 2012
8:46 am
I say the Falcons should clean house .
Wes
January 27th, 2012
9:28 am
Well Jeff, you got 3 out of 5, and you show a lack of perspective on Ray Edwards. First off, Peria Jerry is one of the easiest calls on the team. He should NOT be on the roster next year. What franchise finds success waiting on NFL athletes to get better? Bad 1st season? Ok..sure. Bad 3rd season…Come On Man! I’d forgive players we acquired last year bc of the lockout, but this is professional football. Why put money in a perennial defensive backup? On that note, Kroy Biermann is a reality tv “star”[sic] not a football player…NEXT!
Ovie Mughelli is a necessity for the Falcons run game. (GaTech alumn) I love the fact that we have Mike Cox, but the truth remains that Michael Turner had 4 100 yard games during the 7 games Ovie played, and 2 in the 9 he did not.
Sure, we paid Edwards to get sacks, but compare that 30 mil dollar contract to the 72 million Charles Johnson cost. Even if Edwards doesn’t pan out as a superstar next year, he still isn’t a bust. We pay him $5 mil a year and he plays every down. Given the fact that he had to learn a new D scheme in a few weeks which included rushing from both sides of the line (which he did not do in Minn), I’ll give him a pass for 2012. I would have awarded the same grace to Julio and Quizz, but clearly they are fast learners. (Btw, Quizz was born to return kickoffs/punts, sorry Weems, I’m gonna miss you)
Rod Paradise
January 27th, 2012
11:44 am
Agreed I think it was fortunate we had Mike Cox. I know he is not Ovie but he did a decent job. Keep Ovie. Agree most with “Sick and tired” I believe that most of the guys are going to benefit greatly with the new schemes and coaches. Also I like the idea of getting a rookie backup for Ryan(maybe the OSU rook). He needs to be put on his toes, big contract or not he needs to up his performance level. Dunta needs to be moved to free saftey. Ray Edwards health was suspect this year, but if next year he is not producing he needs to go. His ineffectiveness also lead to the opppostions O-Line being able to key in on John Abraham. Thus, making Abraham ineffective. I would work on utilitzing Snelling and Quizz more for sure, and less Turner up the middle. I beleive Snelling was the most under utilized player we have. That dude is awesome because he plays to win, and you can see it in his play. The biggest thing for the Falcons is improve their line both offensive and defensive. Looks what happened when you start getting to Drew Brees. Those guys are not invincible. That is what the D needs is the ability to pressure the QB, and get away from that crappy prevent D scheme. Other things to take note of with the Superbowl is look how much protection the O-lines provide Brady and Manning. That is what MR2 is going to need to win.
Arx
January 27th, 2012
5:31 pm
Damned fine article w/polls! But you know, I think the issue goes deeper. The Falcs are floating deadwood elsewhere and one could be old Roddy White who might have led this team to the SB by merely catching just half of his drops over the last two seasons.
There’s plenty of firewood to be found…
ebutcher2
January 27th, 2012
5:47 pm
Mr. Blank,
The offensive/defensive line is like the foundation of a house. If they are not solid you’ll eventually have problems. Prioritize building 1st class line play and coaching on both sides of the ball and the rest will follow. Use the remaining draft picks for 2012 on linemen. When evaluating players look for long arms, big hands, big butts and speed, speed, speed!
jason
January 27th, 2012
7:32 pm
D.Robinson is the worst corner in nfl history CUT HIM.
J-Lo
January 28th, 2012
12:26 am
Schultz: I was convinced by all of your arguments, and way to go with the Travolta idea!
Gold_Wing4
January 28th, 2012
2:46 am
dunta robinson was never a shut down corner? dude, why write something like that when you obviously don’t know what you’re talking about? apparently this guy never saw him before the injury in houston. he was a straight balla before that injury…
Wis-Kid
January 28th, 2012
8:25 am
Sam baker will be cut. Don’t look for Abraham to be signed and FA will be a bigger part of Falcons offseason. Draft picks;
2nd-23rd pick
3rd-22nd pick
5th-22nd pick
6th-23rd pick
7th-22nd pick
Look for more of the Draft picks to cover O-line, Trades may yield another #1 pick for 2013.Draft
Wis-Kid
January 28th, 2012
8:53 am
With Abraham’s age and the limited amount of snaps he took this season (13%), He could be welcomed back if he took a lower salary, but I don’t think he will. Look for the Falcons to shake things up, and welcome to the team Cortland Finnegan DB to be part of the steady nickle defense.