Falcons questions: Fixing five mistakes starts with Sam Baker
Thomas Dimitroff, Arthur Blank and Mike Smith face tough decisions. (Curtis Compton/AJC)
(This is the second in a series of blogs on some Falcons’ high-profile veterans and their uncertain futures with the team.)
Last week in the opener of this cyber mini-series, I looked at the possibility of the Falcons parting ways with Michael Turner, who despite finishing third in the NFL in rushing this season was showing signs of wear and might not be worth the $5 million in salary he is due next season. It stirred a lot of debate and, honestly, I was surprised by how many folks wanted him traded or cut.
Today, I’m focusing on five mistakes (or generally perceived ones). Falcons general manager Thomas Dimitroff hasn’t made a lot of them, but there are five high-profile ones (actually, four by Dimitroff and one by then-general manager Rich McKay). Dimitroff didn’t ask for my advice, but hey, I’m not charging or anything. This time, I’ll have a series of polls so you can weigh in with your votes on each player (I neglected to put up a poll on the Turner blog).
Since the Falcons’ No. 1 concern in my view is the offensive line, let’s start with . . .
Loading ... Loading ...• Mistake No. 1: Tackle Sam Baker: In Dimitroff’s first draft in 2008, he traded two second-round picks (34th and 48th) and a fourth-rounder to Washington for the Redskins’ first-round pick (21st overall), third- and fifth-rounder. Baker was taken with the first pick. The thinking: He would be the left tackle to protect the blindside of the just-drafted quarterback, Matt Ryan. It’s
Loading ... Loading ...hard to know how much of Baker’s problems have been because of back injuries but we know he hasn’t been good. He got beat out this season by Will Svitek. Baker has one year left on his contract at $2.576,250. With option bonuses, his cap hit next year actually would be $3.7 million. The Falcons can find a cheaper backup. Easy call: Cut him.
Loading ...• Mistake No. 2. Defensive tackle Peria Jerry: He was the Falcons’ first-round pick (24th overall) in 2009, getting a five-year, $10.35 million contract with $7.55 million guaranteed. He has two sacks in three seasons and, also partly because of injuries, he just hasn’t been good enough to make an impact and win a starting job. Jerry’s base salary next season is only $845,000, though he carries a cap hit of $1.95 million. Money’s really not the issue. It’s more like: How long can the Falcons wait? More than likely, they’ll see if they can do better in the offseason before making a decision. Tough call: Stall.
• Mistake No. 3. Cornerback Dunta Robinson: He was signed in 2010 for six years, $57 million with $25.5 million guaranteed. As investments go, this would’ve been like if Arthur Blank expanded Home Depots to include a seafood buffet. Robinson never was known as a shut-down cornerback, but he certainly figured to be the best defensive back on the team and he hasn’t been (that’s Brent Grimes). He has a base salary of $6 million next season. I know. You think: Cut him! Not so fast. Of that $6 million, $5 million is guaranteed. Add signing bonus proration and these are your choices: $7.75 million to keep him, $$6.75 million to cut him. It’s not worth it. Painful call: Keep him.
• Mistake No. 4. Defensive end Ray Edwards: He played better down the stretch but still wasn’t nearly the player the Falcons expected him to be or worth the five-year, $30 million contract. Edwards clearly was affected by his late-summer knee surgery, but to what degree? In many games he seemed to disappear. His alibi: He was doing what coaches asked him to do, which explains the low sack production (3½). If that’s true, we’ll see if things change under new defensive coordinator Mike Nolan. But like Robinson, Edwards isn’t going anywhere. The Falcons would take a $3.55 million hit just to cut him and $4.555 million if he plays. Besides, it’s too early to jump ship. Easy call: Keep him.
• Mistake No. 5. Fullback Ovie Mughelli. Actually, it was then-general manager Rich McKay, at the urging of Bobby Petrino, who gave Mughelli a six-year, $18 million contract in 2007. Can he block? Yes. Did it hurt the Falcons when Mughelli was injured this season? Yes. But $3 million a year for a fullback who seldom runs or catches the ball is absurd. The cap hit will be minimal if he’s cut. The $3,733,335 hit if he plays is crazy. There are cheaper blocking backs out there. Easy call: Cut him.
There you go. The cyber-floor is yours, and the polls are up.
By Jeff Schultz
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324 comments Add your comment
Ackshun
January 26th, 2012
6:28 am
Got to disagree on Ovi Mughelli. It’s not that the guy cant catch. It was the that the OC never ran plays to exploit his skill set. That’s not his fault and who know how those 4th n short plays would have gone this year had he been healthy.
DC Dirty Bird
January 26th, 2012
6:34 am
Ovie and Baker are likely gonners. Baker is just too expensive as a back up and Koetter’s system doesn’t really call for a $3 million dollar FB. If it were me, I’d ask Ovie to restructure. Those who say cut Dunta haven’t done their homework on the style of football Mike Nolan likes to play. Dunta likes to be physical with WR and that’s the type of defense Nolan likes to play. Ray should also benefit from being in a system where he doesn’t have to “coordinate” his pass rush with the other DE. Piera’s contract isn’t that bad that we should cut him…..unless we have someone on the roster whose a better 3rd/4th rotational DT.
Monster
January 26th, 2012
7:22 am
Noticed Boley still playing at a high level, and we’ll see him again next week. Was always a head scratcher to me.
I strongly believe Dimitrioff is over-rated. Just flat wastes his late picks. And FA has been a flop besides Turner.
But to your Qs, show Michael T some love. He has been MVP of the Falcons for four years. And the OL run blocking was really weak this year, in addiction to Ovie’s injury. Keep him, we will not have another RB that can carry the load in ‘12.
Draft OL and TE (we could have had iJmmy Graham LY) this year, and get that RB in Round 1 in ‘13. tW,net a backup QB, you will need him sooner or later (see the Colts).
DC Dirty Bird
January 26th, 2012
7:30 am
Why do we keep talking out of both sides of our mouths when it comes to Turner. OL blocking was weak….but he got 1300 yds.
IS HE A GAME CHANGING BACK?
Atticus
January 26th, 2012
7:50 am
How many yards has Turner gotten against playoff teams? The guy is a garbage man, gets yards when they don’t matter. And he loses yards more than any back in the league because he is so solow to hit the hole. The league is not about slow plodding backs anymore.
SawThat1nce
January 26th, 2012
8:21 am
In most cases, hit what hole?
Bill
January 26th, 2012
8:22 am
I must say it is good that the Falcons have been in the playoffs 3 of 4 years. This is the same organization who for years was beyond awful.
That said, I hope a new defensive scheme will remedy many of our D-problems. The old Kines’ read-and- react scheme BVG uses died when players got so much bigger and FASTER. A more aggressive scheme will make many of these players better. Also, no DB can cover without a solid pass rush–can’t cover someone for 4 or 5 seconds.
We need both lines to be strong, but I think this year showed how important the O-line is to both running and passing. Scheme may help the D, but Baker needs to go and we need to spend money upgrading the O-line so it is a dominant force. Those 4th-and-1 flops can be laid right at their feet, and Ryan’s passing will improve greatly with a better pocket and hence more time to pass. Opposing defenses are not able to cover our receivers for 5 seconds, either.
terrell
January 26th, 2012
8:26 am
“Falcons GM Thomas Dimitroff hasnt made a lot of them”. Oh really??
Bud Wiser
January 26th, 2012
8:29 am
I like the picture, and have the captions, L-R:
TD: “Who’s that guy next to Arthur? … doesn’t look like Belichick to me, maybe he sent a spokesperson till he gets here.”
Blank: “I don’t know how in the hell these kids today can text so fast.
Smith: “I’ll fire the idiot that made that 4th down call against the Saints, you can bet on that! Now, we have as a surprise jalapeno poppers on the buffet at the conclusion of this meting. Any questions? I thought not! Let’s eat!
terrell
January 26th, 2012
8:35 am
Need to stop trying to draft choir boys, and start drafting some freakin playmakers.
Badger58
January 26th, 2012
8:44 am
Regardless of the cap hit, Dunta is a liability in coverage. He jumped the shark from “not worth the money” to “wouldn’t be a starter at S. Carolina” this year. He is terrible and doesn’t do the ONE thing that he was brought here to do, which is to be a good tackler. He’s routinely made to look ridiculously inept by even rookie WRs. I don’t care what the cap hit is, it’s past time to cut ties with this whiny loser.
"HERE COMES THE JUDGE"
January 26th, 2012
8:56 am
Sam Baker has been MY biggest headache since he arrived…Matt won’t ever admit it but I’m sure when he looks at the game tapes he got to at least be saying to himself that “that guy’s gott go!” A lot more I could say but I gotta go to work…unlike Sam. Trade/release/fire/give him away, etc, etc!!
shirley hemphill
January 26th, 2012
9:01 am
Yeah Jeff, let’s get a “Reservoir Dogs” theme going….anything to remind us of 1998. Let’s also get Jamal out of nightclub bathroom stalls and back in uniform.
BTW NONE of these shlubs are worth what they’re paid so it makes no sense to single out Turner, the most productive player we have.
Ryan Plays Like # 2
January 26th, 2012
9:26 am
Falcons may not like cutting Dunta because of the cap hit but I’m not going to watch them next year if he’s still on the team. He is always 10 yards off open receivers then cannot tackle them once they catch the ball. He’s useless. He just looks good out there with his dreadlocks hair flopping all around. When your cornerback can’t cover or tackle he doesn’t need to be on the team.
Ryan Plays Like # 2
January 26th, 2012
9:29 am
Trade for the Rams Steven Jackson. He runs hard every play even playing on a sorry team. Turner is too slow thru the holes and many times could bounce a run outside for 8 to 15 yards but runs up a lineman’s back instead for no gain. Turner lacks the field vision to be a top RB.
Ryan Plays Like # 2
January 26th, 2012
9:32 am
Picture caption should have said “Three Stooges”.
DawgDad
January 26th, 2012
9:35 am
“get boykin as a nickel”
Boykin may wind up just being a kick returner in the NFL – he can’t tackle in the open field, shies away from the physical contact. Watch the South Carolina tape, and pretty much any other game the Dawgs played this year. Boykin single-handedly lost the SC game, whiffing on Ingram. There’s no excuse for a player with Boykin’s speed and athleticism whiffing on all the open field tackles he’s whiffed on except shying away from the contact. Great potential as a kick returner, though.
Cannonball Butler
January 26th, 2012
9:37 am
Jeff, right for once! Baker is the worst lineman in football. Say goodbye!
DawgDad
January 26th, 2012
9:41 am
“Turner lacks the field vision to be a top RB.”
Then, please tell me WHO I’ve been watching the past four years?
I’ve said this before, I remember when living in St. Louis in the mid-90’s the team, press, and fans were down on Jerome Bettis for not hitting holes hard, dancing in the backfield, and not being effective. Traded to Pittsburgh he was an immediate star, deemed as tough as they come. The difference was the offensive lines; the O-line in St. Louis in the mid-90’s couldn’t block a Pop Warner defense – ask Chris Miller.
Told You So
January 26th, 2012
9:41 am
In order to make it to the big dance Arthur is going to have to swallow hard and admit that his President and GM are mediocre football people. He needs to cut the two idiots who signed all of these guys – Dummytroff and McHey I’m Still Living off of Daddy’s Legacy.
DC Dirty Bird
January 26th, 2012
9:42 am
Ryan Plays: Ever thought that the scheme called for DRob to play 10 yds off? What kind of true fan decides not to watch their team because of one player. There are 10 other guys on the defense and 11 other guys responsible for putting up points.
Lets put things in perspective here. Did DRob get torched in the GB game last year? Did DRob call 2 4th down QB sneaks against the Giants? Did DRob tip toe on 4th and 1 against the Saints, making himself untrustworthy in clutch short yardage situations? Did DRob force Decoud to decide he was a LB instead of a FS on the 80 yd Nicks touchdown against the Giants?
Plenty of blame to go around on the Falcons. No need to focus on one player.
joewhite
January 26th, 2012
9:45 am
Cut baker, robinson take a pay cut and lets go from there, jerry this is your last year to shine sir.ray will be fine, ovie if he takes a paycut and healthy bring him back
DC Dirty Bird
January 26th, 2012
9:49 am
DawgDad,
Would Bettis have tip-toed on that 4th and 1?
Matt "CHOKE" Ryan
January 26th, 2012
9:59 am
Flacco + 42 million.
Gary O
January 26th, 2012
10:03 am
We need at least one new starter on the O-Line, and may have to overpay to get somebody.
As a result, I am open to letting Ovie go for a cheaper replacement. I wonder what the coaches think about Mike Cox?
malone
January 26th, 2012
10:13 am
Been a falcon fan since i was 9 years old, 1981. I watch every game. The offensive line is horrible b/c of two guys — Baker and Reynolds have to go. They just are not getting it done. Our fullback is special if he can recover from this injury. Keep him if his knee is o.k. But we absolutely need to get ourselves a new power back. Turner is a plodder now who has no burst to the hole. He’s been good to us, but you have to come to grips with reality that he’s 30 and just isn’t “the burner” anymore. Get a young back with burst and power. Maybe it’s time to give K. Miere a chance at to replace Douglas. I love Douglas’ potential, but he rarely makes an impact. Bottom line is we’ve got to improve that offensive line, add a fresh running back, and add one more OLB to compliment lofton and spoon. Then i think we’re in good shape.
Ray
January 26th, 2012
10:20 am
I think Baker’s got to go– but the others are keepers for now. Trading Turner is stupid unless we’re not going to run the ball anymore. Also blaming White for all of his drops is unfair. Matt Ryan didn’t have a great year with his ball placement. You watch the top tier QB’s— Brees, Rogers, Manning, Brady– they put the ball where the receiver expects it to be 99% of the time. Ryan often throws the ball behind his receivers– and he missed a lot of deep balls this year.. either too long or too short. He was off this year– and needs to go back to the film room.
DC Dirty Bird
January 26th, 2012
10:26 am
CHOKE,
Do you have anything else to add to these posts other than Matt Ryan sucks?
BTW, Ryan would have a ring by now with that defense and Ray Rice and McGahee/Williams. He ain great, but he’s much better than Flacco.
Ryan Plays Like # 2
January 26th, 2012
10:46 am
I can watch or not watch any game at MY discretion. I’m tired of seeing Dunta Robinson getting beat short,medium,and long by receivers. When you have a glaring hole at DB then the QB’s are gonna expose it and keep going after him. Replace him now or just forfeit the games.
Ryan Plays Like # 2
January 26th, 2012
10:49 am
Well up until this year you watched Turner run thru GAPING holes made by the O-linemen. Now that he has to get yards on his own he ain’t nothing. He hates contact and won’t run over defenders any more. He plays like he has a glass vase in his hands instead of a football.
Ryan Plays Like # 2
January 26th, 2012
10:53 am
Matt Ryan is AVERAGE at best at QB. I can name 12 other QB’s I’d rather have than Matt Ryan. And 2 of them USED to be Falcons (Vick & Schaub). Here’s the other 10 : Rodgers,Brees,Brady,Rivers,Roethlisberger,C.Newton,P.Manning,E.Manning,M.Stafford,A.Dalton.
Ryan Plays Like # 2
January 26th, 2012
10:58 am
Did any of you notice that once Vick came back the Eagles didn’t lose a game ? If he would have played all year & Jay Cutler & Matt Forte would have played all year for Bears then Falcons wouldn’t have made the playoffs. They got there because 2 teams had major injuries… By default. Awful.
Ryan Plays Like # 2
January 26th, 2012
11:00 am
Oh yeah, add Jay Cutler to the list. Matt Ryan is 14th or 15th best in NFL.
JImmy T
January 26th, 2012
11:02 am
You hope that Baker wil play better in 2012 b/c his back is healthy, but that’s a big if. He seemed to play well early in his career so I’m hopeful. I’m disappointed the most in P. Jerry. Thought he had a quick 1st step and spent a lot of time in the oppoents backfield? Sure looks like he got fat and lazy when he got paid. We definately need to release Ovie. Too much $ for that position. Still think we need Duntae and Edwards. They should be more productive with better coaching and schemes.
DC Dirty Bird
January 26th, 2012
11:03 am
Ryan…it was a rhetorical question….
Great list, but I’m not sure I’d put Dalton in over MR2. He’s got talent, I didn’t see superstar in the making potential like with Newton. Otherwise the only thing I an say to you is, there are 32 teams in the league and we have the 13th best. No complaints.
DC Dirty Bird
January 26th, 2012
11:09 am
MR2, the Bears slide due to injuries got Detroit in the playoffs not us. Given that the NFC East teams all finished with 7 or more losses, a healthy Vick, Forte, and Cutler only enables Chicago to get the #5 seed wildcard and Philly to get teh #4 seed as the NFC East champion.
Ryan Plays Like # 2
January 26th, 2012
11:14 am
DCDB, then the Giants get the Wild Card not Falcons…
Ryan Plays Like # 2
January 26th, 2012
11:15 am
Lions & Falcons woulda been left out & Eagles & Bears in.
Ryan Plays Like # 2
January 26th, 2012
11:17 am
If we still had Vick 4th & 1 would be automatic….
Ryan Plays Like # 2
January 26th, 2012
11:18 am
This is very easy. Cut all 4 of these sorry players. Dunta is the worst one on the list !
Ryan Plays Like # 2
January 26th, 2012
11:19 am
Who do you think Packers J.Nelson,D.Driver,Giants Cruz,Nicks is beating on the pass plays ? Dunta Robinson !
Ryan Plays Like # 2
January 26th, 2012
11:22 am
Flacco played great againt New England. Better than Tom Brady by the numbers. The holder for the Ravens is to blame for their loss. He did’t line the ball up with laces forward. Somewhere Jim Carrey is laughing…
Shawn
January 26th, 2012
11:24 am
Try to get Jonathan Dwyer,a former GT running back from the Steelers. He has shown he can play in this league but broke a foot early this year and did not play. He has the size and speed the Falcons lack presently I think the Falcons were too predictable offense. Every set of downs it was Turner left and Turner right
Falconfever
January 26th, 2012
11:46 am
Keep Ovie, cut the rest.
78Dawg
January 26th, 2012
11:47 am
Cut TD…He’s been the biggest bust of all…In way over his head!
Ryan Plays Like # 2
January 26th, 2012
12:09 pm
The problem with Matt Ryan being 13th or 14th best QB in NFL is that only 12 teams make the playoffs every year and only 6 from NFC !!!!!
Samuel
January 26th, 2012
12:30 pm
If you could trade some of these guys for draft picks, who could instantly come in and start or come off the bench and be productive.
Die Hard Falcon
January 26th, 2012
12:35 pm
@Ryan Plays Like # 2 –
You’re entitled to believe that Matt Ryan is only middle of the road, I definitely disagree, I would place Matt at about #10 right now, I certainly wouldn’t put Dalton, Cutler, Newton ahead of him at this point, and I think Stafford is a 1-trick pony, he had a phenomenal year and I don’t want to sound like I’m disrespecting him, but 1 season doesn’t show consistency, Ryan has been steadily improving (expcept in playoff games) every year and had great stats. I would much rather have Ryan than Vick as well. So we disagree, but there are a lot of Ryan haters, not sure where it comes from, he’s not arrogant or anything, but whatever, looking at the empirical data, I’m quite satisfied w/ our QB, not everyone can have Brees, Manning, Rodgers, and Brady.
As far as the playoffs, you’re wrong, IF we’re going to play the IF game, and Cutler and Vick didn’t get hurt, most likely the Bears would’ve gotten in and been #5, but we held tie-breakers over the Lions & Eagles and as far as the G-men, they were 9-7, we were 10-6, so they wouldn’t have gotten the wildcard over us. And IF Roddy hadn’t dropped TD’s against the aints in the 1st game at the end or the bucs game early in the season and IF Julio didn’t drop the TD against the Texans we could’ve been 13-3. We obviously get what we earn and drops, injuries, bad calls are all part of it.
Go Falcons, Go Matt Ryan!
Sid
January 26th, 2012
12:46 pm
Can’t we go back to the 2001 NFL Draft? Would love to be able to correct our biggest mistake!
Matt
January 26th, 2012
12:50 pm
How bout trading 5 picks for Julio Jones???