Falcons questions: Fixing five mistakes starts with Sam Baker
Thomas Dimitroff, Arthur Blank and Mike Smith face tough decisions. (Curtis Compton/AJC)
(This is the second in a series of blogs on some Falcons’ high-profile veterans and their uncertain futures with the team.)
Last week in the opener of this cyber mini-series, I looked at the possibility of the Falcons parting ways with Michael Turner, who despite finishing third in the NFL in rushing this season was showing signs of wear and might not be worth the $5 million in salary he is due next season. It stirred a lot of debate and, honestly, I was surprised by how many folks wanted him traded or cut.
Today, I’m focusing on five mistakes (or generally perceived ones). Falcons general manager Thomas Dimitroff hasn’t made a lot of them, but there are five high-profile ones (actually, four by Dimitroff and one by then-general manager Rich McKay). Dimitroff didn’t ask for my advice, but hey, I’m not charging or anything. This time, I’ll have a series of polls so you can weigh in with your votes on each player (I neglected to put up a poll on the Turner blog).
Since the Falcons’ No. 1 concern in my view is the offensive line, let’s start with . . .
Loading ... Loading ...• Mistake No. 1: Tackle Sam Baker: In Dimitroff’s first draft in 2008, he traded two second-round picks (34th and 48th) and a fourth-rounder to Washington for the Redskins’ first-round pick (21st overall), third- and fifth-rounder. Baker was taken with the first pick. The thinking: He would be the left tackle to protect the blindside of the just-drafted quarterback, Matt Ryan. It’s
Loading ... Loading ...hard to know how much of Baker’s problems have been because of back injuries but we know he hasn’t been good. He got beat out this season by Will Svitek. Baker has one year left on his contract at $2.576,250. With option bonuses, his cap hit next year actually would be $3.7 million. The Falcons can find a cheaper backup. Easy call: Cut him.
Loading ...• Mistake No. 2. Defensive tackle Peria Jerry: He was the Falcons’ first-round pick (24th overall) in 2009, getting a five-year, $10.35 million contract with $7.55 million guaranteed. He has two sacks in three seasons and, also partly because of injuries, he just hasn’t been good enough to make an impact and win a starting job. Jerry’s base salary next season is only $845,000, though he carries a cap hit of $1.95 million. Money’s really not the issue. It’s more like: How long can the Falcons wait? More than likely, they’ll see if they can do better in the offseason before making a decision. Tough call: Stall.
• Mistake No. 3. Cornerback Dunta Robinson: He was signed in 2010 for six years, $57 million with $25.5 million guaranteed. As investments go, this would’ve been like if Arthur Blank expanded Home Depots to include a seafood buffet. Robinson never was known as a shut-down cornerback, but he certainly figured to be the best defensive back on the team and he hasn’t been (that’s Brent Grimes). He has a base salary of $6 million next season. I know. You think: Cut him! Not so fast. Of that $6 million, $5 million is guaranteed. Add signing bonus proration and these are your choices: $7.75 million to keep him, $$6.75 million to cut him. It’s not worth it. Painful call: Keep him.
• Mistake No. 4. Defensive end Ray Edwards: He played better down the stretch but still wasn’t nearly the player the Falcons expected him to be or worth the five-year, $30 million contract. Edwards clearly was affected by his late-summer knee surgery, but to what degree? In many games he seemed to disappear. His alibi: He was doing what coaches asked him to do, which explains the low sack production (3½). If that’s true, we’ll see if things change under new defensive coordinator Mike Nolan. But like Robinson, Edwards isn’t going anywhere. The Falcons would take a $3.55 million hit just to cut him and $4.555 million if he plays. Besides, it’s too early to jump ship. Easy call: Keep him.
• Mistake No. 5. Fullback Ovie Mughelli. Actually, it was then-general manager Rich McKay, at the urging of Bobby Petrino, who gave Mughelli a six-year, $18 million contract in 2007. Can he block? Yes. Did it hurt the Falcons when Mughelli was injured this season? Yes. But $3 million a year for a fullback who seldom runs or catches the ball is absurd. The cap hit will be minimal if he’s cut. The $3,733,335 hit if he plays is crazy. There are cheaper blocking backs out there. Easy call: Cut him.
There you go. The cyber-floor is yours, and the polls are up.
By Jeff Schultz
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324 comments Add your comment
Anthony Turner
January 25th, 2012
2:18 pm
I am sorry Mr. Schults but, the Falcons do not want cut Ovie Mugehlli . That would be a mistake. He is one of the best lead blockers in the N.F.L. Watch some of past games when he wasn’t hurt & playing, you will see that he is one of the best @ putting crushing blocks on linebackers. Turner would have gotten a lot more yards had ovie been in there blocking for him. Especiially on the 4th. inches. I know you say that we can draft a full back to block for our backs, but there is no one that does it better than ovie.
t_height
January 25th, 2012
2:18 pm
@jgsbirds: Dude i’ve been saying that all year. Dunta can actually hit and he loves playing cover 3. He would be really good at the position.
freddy
January 25th, 2012
2:19 pm
Baker sucks…
Let Turner go!
Texas Pete
January 25th, 2012
2:20 pm
I wouldn’t care how much money you’d lose cutting Robinson. I can’t stand to watch him miss tackle after tackle. He plays like a girl. Atlanta has the worst pass defense on third downs in the league. Robinson has got to go no matter how much it costs.
Die Hard Falcon
January 25th, 2012
2:20 pm
@Therut
I know there are a ton of falcon fans who for one reason or another don’t belive in Matt Ryan, but in looking at the stats, at empirical data, I just don’t see why people are so down on him. I agree in the 3 playoff games, he’s not shown up, but neither has the team, coaches and all either, I don’t place all the blame on him, plus that’s only 3 games. Everything else, (Regular Season) shows that he’s in the top 10 in the NFL, to me that’s better than average. Not elite to be sure, but certainly better than at least 22 other teams have. I think we’re alright at QB.
Supes
January 25th, 2012
2:21 pm
Jeff,
your piece is entertaining and a fun read but it’s not “practical”.
Falcons can’t “dump” Robinson with Grimes hitting FA…there is already a lot of uncertainty in the secondary…same thing can be said for Edwards being “dumped” b/c John Abraham is a FA as well…so it all depends on what the FALCONS do with those other 2 guys that will directly affect Robinson & Edwards. If you tell me the FALCONS keep both Grimes and Abraham…by all means “dump” Robinson & Edwards…if not you keep them.
Sam Baker is a sure thing dump…bust by all means for being a 1st rounder…judging by his play he’s at best a 5th round pick (if you draft him again)
Jerry…the verdict is still out as he’s missed a large portion of playing time due to injury…I feel like this is 2012 will be the last year that the organization is going to “stick with him” and see if they can get even a rotational DT job out of him…but for a 1st round pick he’s been a bust (so far).
Ovie…it all depends on what they wanna do with the offense. If they follow where the MOST successful teams are going, they’ll have to let Ovie go…and just do away with the FB position and run a lot more 3 WR and 1 RB sets.
falcon057
January 25th, 2012
2:22 pm
What about Babs how can that 5 mill cap hit for 1 sack and 26 tackles look good!
QB/DB
January 25th, 2012
2:22 pm
You love to stir things up. It is a wonder players speak to you/ what I’m scared of truthfully the Birds were not that far away. A few more players with what they had and a break on injuries and the SUPER BOWL is ours. But you fail to address the inadequete drafting and getting the RIGHT free agents, staying with some less then average players toooooo long. Drafting a few players two rounds too high. Losing Olvie hurt them in the playofffs. I think we would have made a few 4th and ones. If he is healthy they need to keep him. I agree maybe we need to take a chance and get a few mean types.
Billy
January 25th, 2012
2:26 pm
I would use Baker’s money to get one these really good FA offensive lineman, when your offensive line gets knocked back 2 yards on run plays and the lineman get bull rushed into your quarterback you have got problems. All you brilliant football minds instead of firing coaches and releasing players answer this question if get rid of the coaching staff who are going to get to replace them that will get to the next level. If we cut Matt Ryan who do suggest for Quarterback Chris Redman do you think Mike Vick is going to come back? I am have been a Falcon fan since they started and I was 6 years old I remembered all those bad QB we have had except for Bartkowski( whose career was cut short by horrible offensive line in the beginning and then at the end when Henning traded them to Washington) Ryan is a good QB he needs blocking.
R.Z,
January 25th, 2012
2:26 pm
REMEMBER GEORGIA FORCE??? SAM BAKER’S DAD USED TO COACH THE TEAM. ACTUALY MR.BLANK HIMSELF HAD ALOT TO DO WITH SAM BAKER’S CHOICE AT NUMBER 19, NOT T.D!!!! POOR CHOICE
F cubed
January 25th, 2012
2:28 pm
Keep Ovie, he makes all RB’s better.
Cut Baker, he was a reach that never managed to exceed meager expectations.
Keep D-Rob, his lack of production may be schematically inevitable. Give him an NFL D-Coordinator along with some better supporting players in the secondary and see what he can do.
Peria deserves another year, but this is it. There are other, more critical holes to fill than his reserve DT spot. Again, coaching may help.
Ray Edwards fills a niche, he helps with the run. Rotating him with Biermann (pass downs) should be adequate IF we do better in other areas. Keep him.
Not that TD asked me, mind you. Or should.
SawThat1nce
January 25th, 2012
2:28 pm
Shultz, why do you seem to always let Dimitroff off of the hook, when you are playing the blame game with the Falcons?
Why in the heck did he pass on the Packer’s Mathews to draft Jerry, a player that had injury issues in the NCAA?,
nash
January 25th, 2012
2:33 pm
There is another d or o tackle to be had in the second or third round of the draft that can match Baker and, Jerry production. I say dump both
Big Crimson 75
January 25th, 2012
2:34 pm
cut baker – cut jerry — thanks genius GM.
cut robinson — keep edwards.
cut/re-sign ovie — no one will out bid the falcons for him coming off injury.
must re-sign loftin.
fix the lines in the off season!
t_height
January 25th, 2012
2:34 pm
@Die Hard FalconFan: Your problem is that you are doing exactly what all of the outsiders are doing to rate MR. You and everyone else is checking out the stats. Stats don’t actually show how you really look on the field. Stats is one reason why Brent Grimes didn’t get a bid to the Pro Bowl. If you actually watched his games, most teams never went his direction and when they did, he was usually right there for the tackle, knock down or interception. Matt Ryan looks horrible in most games he play. His accuracy is way off, strength is very weak, and he don’t know how to read defense nor look off defenders. He is very lucky to have some athletic receivers.
R.Z,
January 25th, 2012
2:39 pm
JUST LOOK AND SEE HOW NEW ENGLAND DRAFTS EVERY YEAR COMPARING TO FALCONS!!!!!! T.D. , WAS N’T HE SUPPOSE TO BE THE SMART GUY? THERE ALOT OF US THAT ON DRAFT DAY, CAN DRAFT BETTER THAN T.D. JERRY FOR MATHEWS!!!!!SHAME SHAME SHAME
Die Hard Falcon
January 25th, 2012
2:42 pm
@t_height –
There’s really no way to argue against someone’s perception of how someone “looks” during a game. If his accuracy was that terrible the stats would bear witness to that, I have also seen Matt lead us to many 4th qtr comebacks and I’ve watched every game in his career w/ us, I guess my perception is different. I do also think if he had a line like Brady or Brees have, that he’d be up near the elite category but I won’t argue it, b/c I cannot prove it, it’s only my opinion. I still can’t justify all the muckraking done to him when it’s based soley on perception. I believe in him and the Falcons, and I’m going to until someone can come up w/ an empirical argument based in reality. Otherwise, everyone can be happy in their perception and I’ll be happy in mine, and I hope the changes we make and the continued progression of Matt prove the doubters wrong
Until then…Go Falcons! Go MR2!
t_height
January 25th, 2012
2:43 pm
@falcons057: If you know a little about football you would know that interior lineman don’t make many tackle but they are draw double teams, put pressure up the middle to support and open hole for the LB’s. Babs was a major cause for one of the best run defenses in the league. His numbers will go up a lot if the team gets someone help him out.
J_ATL
January 25th, 2012
2:43 pm
Have you ever noticed that we continue to stay average on both sides of the ball despite the talent we have? It’s due to our staff and the fact that they want choir boys instead of ballers. Thats why we pass up on good talent to take someone who will be a good locker room fit but can’t perform on the field. I have lost all faith in this front office that they will do the right thing in order for us to win. Too many draft busts, players with no heart, coaches who don’t have a clue as to what they are doing. If they did, then MM would have been gone last season and BVG would never been our DC. And as good as he is, Tony G should not be our best TE at this point in his career. We have zero depth at almost every position. That is a problem, and until Blank can realize that, we will never win a ring. Don’t mean to sound negative but often times the truth hurts. Baker + Jerry = cut. Edwards + D Rob = keep. Ovie = restructure his contract since he’s coming off of injury.
t_height
January 25th, 2012
2:49 pm
@Die Hard Falcon
I’m praying for the samething. I’m glad you believe in every player on the team also. only if they could live up to the hype.
Trapper John
January 25th, 2012
2:50 pm
Keep Olvi. 3 million to Blank is like 3 cents in your pocket Jeffrey. Dunta is designed to be a man on man cover corner. Not a soft zone guy. Keep him. Baker is a mystery. Must be back problems or something. USC football factory guy that didn’t pan out. Should have been an anchor for 15 years on the line. (like Kunz!) Turner I would trade right now. Never will he have higher value, but he is old and slowing down by the second. Dupe some hungry team now and get some draft picks for him. Trade Mike Smith to the Jaquars for a cup of gatorade. Please. Hey, we’re good to go!!
Twest
January 25th, 2012
2:50 pm
Jeffery O’ great and powerful scribe your knowledge is too great for me. For who can stand before your mighty pen (or keypad) O’ wise and powerful one. This Jeff maybe your best work yet! I have been screaming at the TV for a year and a half with Baker and Robinson. If….If you want Ryan alive you have to get rid of Baker. Robinson can’t cover a snail, how many catches would A J Green have on him in single coverage? A gazillion? The greatest need is to get Dahl back and ship the rest of the no-blocking-my-little-pony-playin offensive line ouuta here. Peace Jeffery Dos I’m Out!
Joe Tess Fish House
January 25th, 2012
2:54 pm
How long have I ben sayin the Flacons need 2 cut that looser Perrier Jerry. All of U maid fun of me 4 saying this and now Mr Schutlz agree with me.
Whose the moran now?
CAPT-ATL
January 25th, 2012
2:54 pm
Enter your comments here
monty
January 25th, 2012
2:55 pm
Yeh, the Matthews pass hurts. TD is no genius, looks like he’s about avg. to me. Witherspoon looks like a good one, probably Jones but Robinson, Jerry and Ray Edwards? Poor decisions. Looks like a crap shoot.
Hillbilly D
January 25th, 2012
2:56 pm
I wonder if Jeff Van Note, R C Theilman, Mike Kenn and Warren Bryant have any sons that play football.
Joe Tess Fish House
January 25th, 2012
2:58 pm
I aslo say cut Donta Roberson. He is another looser the Flacons got stuk with. The guy is always getting beet. Take the cap hit and move on
Joe Tess Fish House
January 25th, 2012
2:59 pm
He is aslo a cheep shot artest.
Trade 4 Tim Teabow
January 25th, 2012
3:03 pm
He Jeff N E word on if the Flacons will trade 4 Time Teabow?
jerry
January 25th, 2012
3:07 pm
Just going by the Ovie deal, don’t let McKay anywhere near the “war room” on draft day. Every player on the offense should represent some type of offensive threat, which I never saw Ovie present. Ridiculous.
falcon057
January 25th, 2012
3:11 pm
t_height
Lets look at Walker 18 tackles and 2 sacks $600,000? Lets look at Peters 26 tackles (down from 40) and 3sacks (?1 mill). Babs has the lowest total besides Jerry of all Rotation guys. I guess you can justify 5.7 mill ,but I can’t. I’d bet we could find for 6 mill that big DT that would free up LB and DE that anit happen! 6 mill for a 31 year old DT. 10 mill for Abe a 35 year old to play maybe 20 % of the plays and we wonder why we have cap problems. That’s a problem that doesn’t get better with age. Make the move one year too early than 1 too late.
JSS
January 25th, 2012
3:11 pm
Well, I heard the sun finally came out back in Georgia… So, now that pesky salary cap has finally slapped you in the face? Been telling you since Baker’s first season to move him inside, he was not an NFL tackle with the Falcons set up and lack of overall line strength nor power!
I’m always stunned by the lack of flexibility and imagination in the use of players by the Falcons or their fans. You don’t want to take a cap hit on Robinson this upcoming season. That is insane when you have to sign a replacement for Grimes, Abraham, or possibly Lofton. Move Robinson to Free Safety or a hybrid position like the Eagles or Packers use.
Dahl is not coming back, you folks need to get over him and demand more from what you have.
I’ve said it before about Jerry. He’s neither strong or reliable enough for you folks to be getting into a tight over.
Now, back to my vacation, vaya en paz!
Greg
January 25th, 2012
3:12 pm
Nice article, Jeff. One thing you don’t keep Dunte because you’d lose a lot of money and get nothing for it by cutting him. We’re not in it to spend as little money as we can; we’re in it to win. DR is one of the worst corners I saw this year. Not only was he consistently beaten in man coverage (on every length of pass route, short, medium, and long), he was also a piss-poor tackler. That last weakness is just inexcusable. He hurt us over and over and over again. He will not be on the team next season.
BTW, I distinctly remember Mel Kiper (I know, I know) saying that the Falcons were crazy for giving up so much to move up to the 1st round to get Baker, when Mel had him as a second-round pick anyway. Mel was sure right about this one!
CAPT-ATL
January 25th, 2012
3:17 pm
Turner and Ovie?? I just dont see the new OC running a 2 back offense enough to justify over 10 million between those 2. I’d look for TD to re-sign Snelling and try to move Turner who has trouble blocking and the hands of a brick layer. Baker? Tough call there. If we can land Nicks from NO, then cut him and his salary, if not…..is there a chance that Paul Bodreau’s teaching technique may have set him back? I’d say, give him a chance in camp with a new OL coach, if he does well, go with it. If not…. C ya and give Johnson a shot! Dunta? Have to keep him. He was never given a chance to play to his strength which is “in your face” physical coverage, not the soft zone crap that gives the reciever an arena style running start. Then we get the guy we paid for. he will revert to the CB he was in Houston. Jerry? In fairness, he has been injured alot. Gotta give him another camp and roll the dice. Gotta give Ray Edwards another shot as well.
Walker, Texas Ranger
January 25th, 2012
3:21 pm
At first glance I thought that cutting Ovie was crazy but a backup guard can do the same thing that he does. He is very limited out of the backfield or just not utilized. I think he can catch the ball, maybe with a screen game, he will get the opportunity.
PUBLIC ENEMY #1
January 25th, 2012
3:21 pm
At least Schultz is calling it out and not being a pansie giving passes..
Noter should be in the HOF
January 25th, 2012
3:30 pm
I knew we should’ve kept Dahl. Now we need a guard, a backup tackle, and a center. I think the toughest call of all is Ovie. Dunta would seem to be easily replaced for that kind of cash, but he would be the next hardest call. The others on the list would be gone, if I were GM. I’d release Turner, as well. If we are going to be a power team, we need a back that can get power yards. Michael Turner was a very good back, very good, his first year here. I think he’s been overpaid since.
Falcons questions: Fixing five mistakes starts with Sam Baker | football-feed.com
January 25th, 2012
3:32 pm
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trademark
January 25th, 2012
3:32 pm
I’m still of the opinion that Dunta Robinson will do a lot better in an aggressive, man scheme than in a zone. His list of fines at the very least proves it….
PMC
January 25th, 2012
3:33 pm
I don’t see how you can categorize Ovie Mughelli as a mistake. There are a lot more mistakes than paying a guy 3 million to be the hole opener for Michael Turner. Turners numbers are a LOT better with Ovie.
I look at the cornerback and offensive line misses in the draft or Thomas Decoud’s errors as more mistakes than Ovie. Ovie has been awesome on field and off.
Falconsfan13
January 25th, 2012
3:35 pm
I was just thinking to myself that two of our biggest problems lie on the O-line and D-line. O-line is pretty weak, so D-line doesn’t go against adequate opponents in practice and D-line is subpar so O-line gets no challenge. Both units need more talent to practice against so that they are better prepped for other teams, particularly the elite teams. RISE UP DIRTY BIRDS!!!!
PMC
January 25th, 2012
3:36 pm
I’m not sure outside of one brilliant blitz in New Orleans that Thomas Decoud has EVER taken a good angle on a play.
Chris Owens is good at running guys down, bad news, he gets a lot of practice at it.
Why was Kerry Meier drafted? Shann Schillinger? We started Spencer Atkins in a freaking playoff game at linebacker.
Our depth is wretched in some spots.
What about the 6th round draft pick waste on a freaking punter?????
Puma
January 25th, 2012
3:37 pm
Hate to say it, but agree with all 5 of Schultz’ assessments…scary.
PMC
January 25th, 2012
3:37 pm
Would MUCH rather see Dunta Robinson play free safety, that fits the way he plays much more anyway.
chipper's ACL
January 25th, 2012
3:41 pm
If I recall correctly when Tommy D was brought in as GM, the plan was to build a franchise mirroring New England. His specialty was scouting and drafting. If I recall NE trades down for picks with the thought quantity and proper scouting is better than high pick “quality”. They will consistantly have double digit picks and most end up having value. When vets age, become too costly, or do not produce they are cut. This is not what has taken place in Falcons country. Trading up for Baker, 5 picks for JJ, not something you’d expect. How many other teams have drafted WR’s in the first round the last couple of years? Only one. For every Calvin Johnson there’s a Welker or Cruz. If it’s the year for change, lets start at how the fundamentals are put together.
The Falconator
January 25th, 2012
3:41 pm
Baker and Jerry were injury pre-busts in college and TD should have known it. Neither has the stamina or ferocity required to make it in the pros. I like Ovie, but didn’t realize his deal is so rich. Too many bucks for a blocking back. What was TD thinking? Cap room is precious in this game! We need to see what Dunta can do in a different scheme with another DC. Based on 2011, I’m not wild about Edwards, but Falcs are stuck. This team is like driving a fairly late model car that has lost considerable luster. New paint won’t cut it. Major parts need an overhaul by new mechanics who have neither draft choices nor much cap room to do the job. Worse, recent history suggests TD may not be up to the job.
woeismesince66
January 25th, 2012
3:47 pm
Cut the whole team fire all the coaches find a new owner. How’s that for change?
Bruce Mac
January 25th, 2012
3:56 pm
It’s Atlanta dude, doesn’t matter what moves the Falcons make, we stink and will continue the same. In my next life I am going to be a Yankees and Patriots fan. Atlanta pro sports teams = perpetual mediocrity.
Walter R. Terrell
January 25th, 2012
4:06 pm
Ovie is a keeper, also, he can catch the ball out of the backfield, he’s a power back that should have been used more. The Falcons were predictable because they did not use a lot of their talent. Keep Ovie and have the other fullback block for him and vice versa, it’s an option that can be used and effective. A good offensive line and two power backs can add a few more plays that Matt can use and could be high precentage plays.
Dunta needs another defensive scheme, I think he would do much better then the one he’s played under since he’s been a Falcon. Personally, I think Jerry could be one helluva defensive end, worth a try, the guy is “Bullstrong”, we need push, he would rule most tackles on a one on one basis. Baker might as well be beefed up and let him play guard, 10lbs of muscle an 10 more pounds of weight and we could see a diff in his play, that 20 extra pounds could be a blessing for him and Ray will bring some Big Play to us in the coming season, just keeping him healthy is the deal.
Yes, we need a few upgrades, a big, bullstrong 345 nose tackle that occupys a minimum of 2 blockers would do a world of good for Peters and Babineaux and some added beef on the “O” line would not hurt. The secondary is really not a bad one and if Decoud departs it will still be a solid unit. We have a proven defensive coach who has some exceptional and decent talent to work with. The pieces on both sides of the ball are there, now it’s just a matter of using the talent and the right schemes.
Ichabod
January 25th, 2012
4:13 pm
And the winners of our talent show are: Michael Boley, Koenan, and Dahl. Ooops!