Falcons’ question No. 1: Should Michael Turner be kept? (UPDATED)
The Falcons may need to sacrifice running back Michael Turner to fill other needs. (AP photo)
(UPDATED)
(This is the first in a series of blogs in which I’ll focus on some high-profile Falcons’ veterans and their respective uncertain future with the team.)
The Falcons need some fixes. They’re not a wreck. (Wrecks don’t make the playoffs in three out of four seasons.) But they have problems — offensive line, secondary and defensive line, for starters. They may need to fill holes during free agency, and that means they’ll need to create salary space. Some players will have to go.
Which brings me to Michael Turner.
This should not be taken as the start of a “Dump Michael Turner” movement. The guy finished third in the NFL in rushing with 1,340 yards. But the question of whether to keep him, cut him or trade him (if possible) for a mid-round draft pick is a legitimate one.
Because the Falcons don’t have first- or fourth-round picks this year (see: Julio Jones trade), they will have to plug more holes in free agency. That will mean salary-cap space. Turner is scheduled to make $5 million in salary next season, but has a cap hit of $7.5 million (factoring $2.5 million for his original signing bonus). He turns 30 years old next month. He has 1,189 carries in the past four seasons, which would wear down even a younger guy. (Technically, Turner is an eight-year back, but he had only 228 carries in his first four seasons in San Diego.)
At the very least, Turner is headed for a reduced role next season, as the Falcons want to give more touches to Jacquizz Rodgers, particularly in the screen game. Not integrating Rodgers into the offense was one of former offensive coordinator Mike Mularkey’s failings.
Understand something: The NFL has changed a lot over the past five years. It’s a pass-driven league now, and marquee running backs are not in great demand. Several teams, including New Orleans and Green Bay, now have gone the running back-by-committee route. If the Falcons made the decision to part with Turner, that committee would include Rodgers, Jason Snelling (a free agent) and Antone Smith, unless another back is drafted or signed in free agency.
Despite his production this season, Turner showed signs of wear. He had rushed for over 100 yards once in a span of eight games until gaining 172 in the regular season-ending blowout against Tampa Bay, a team that had clearly quit. The accompanying chart illustrates how his monthly average yards per carry dropped from 5.57 in September to 3.38 in December. His average yards per game (78.8) also was the lowest of his four seasons in Atlanta.
Does this mean Turner is toast? No. He can still be productive. He ran behind a weak line. He played with a lingering groin strain. But the Falcons’ line isn’t going to suddenly morph into the Hogs up front, and injuries are common with older running backs. The move from Mularkey to new offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter was made with an expansion of the passing attack in mind.
So should Turner be sacrificed? There’s no absolute right or wrong answer. But if the Falcons truly want to fix their holes on the offensive and defensive lines — and this game is still about blocking and tackling — cutting or dealing Turner may be necessary.
The thought of saying goodbye to a 1,340-yard rusher may seem like a strange one, but it’s a new league — and the Falcons need the money.
•
Below is a chart showing Turner’s yards per carry and average yards per game by month in each of his four seasons. Remember too that the final game this season brought up his final 2011 averages.
YEAR SEPT. OCT. NOV. DEC. JAN. TYPC TYPG
• 2008 (YPC) 5.48 3.43 4.04 5.22 -- 4.5 106.2
(YPG) 105.5 77.7 110.6 122.8 --
• 2009 (YPC) 3.48 3.34 7.81 7.0* -- 4.9 79.2
(YPG) 75.3 59.0 115.3 7.0 --
• 2010 (YPC) 3.98 4.88 4.21 3.51 3.94 4.1 85.7
(YPG) 77.0 89.0 96.8 82.5 67.0
• 2011 (YPC) 5.57 4.03 4.04 3.38 10.12 4.5 78.8
(YPG) 78.0 96.8 81.8 55.0 17 (*Turner played only 11 games in 2009 because of injuries, including 1 carry in December.)
•
And now, the floor is yours.
By Jeff Schultz
Follow me on Twitter (@JeffSchultzAJC). Friend me on Facebook (Facebook.com/JeffSchultzAJC).
Tell us what you think about the site
Customer Care »
Vacation stops, manage subscriptions and more
AJC Services
Sections
Other Editions
Visitor Agreement | Privacy Statement
© 2013 The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
697 comments Add your comment
JSS
January 19th, 2012
4:14 pm
Manny, Snelling can’t be traded, he’s a UFA (he was on a one year deal)… And he’s coming off a broken jaw!
Matt "CHOKE" Ryan
January 19th, 2012
4:14 pm
Larry
You are annoying
PMC
January 19th, 2012
4:15 pm
it may be addition by subtraction taking the hit for Robinson.
See Texans game. WTF are you doing holding on that play Dunta???
WTF are you doing getting into a fight in a game you don’t need at the end Dunta? It’s not just the scheme either, he’s Houston’s version of Deangelo Hall.
Foul-Can
January 19th, 2012
4:18 pm
What type of dumb article and question is this. This guy pretty much led this team. Without his run game where would we be? Ryan’s arm hasn’t gotten us anywhere. Turner is this team.
fan
January 19th, 2012
4:20 pm
Trade Turner and Roddy, load up on Draft picks…..Roddy is on a slippery slide..Too many drops and personal foul penalties.
Hillbilly D
January 19th, 2012
4:21 pm
In my opinion, it’s time to start looking for somebody to replace Turner. He seems to me to be slow hitting the hole, when there’s one there. He was a good back but running backs have a very short lifespan in the NFL. Age has caught up to him, I think.
Birrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrd Man
January 19th, 2012
4:24 pm
What kind of draft pick do you think he would bring? Possibly a 2nd rounder?
Foul-Can
January 19th, 2012
4:26 pm
The AJC has to have the WORSTS SPORTS WRITERS OUT OF ANY NEWSPAPER. SCHUTLZ WTF ARE YOU TALKING ABOUT!!!!!!!!!!!! TRADE THE GUY WHO CARRIED THIS TEAM THE LAST FOUR YEARS for DRAFT PICKS??? How about you ask the douche bag Dimitroff about giftwrapping our draft picks for this season? SCHULTS WHERE ARE YOU FROM ORIGINALLY? YOU CANT BE FROM GEORGIA…
Matt "CHOKE" Ryan
January 19th, 2012
4:26 pm
CHOKE the BUST
No points in a playoff game.
HA HA HA
Benjamin
January 19th, 2012
4:31 pm
MichaelTurner
inkspot
January 19th, 2012
4:31 pm
Michael Turner has been a destroyer for us and he is still strong. I guarantee you if the OL makes some darn blocks and opens up some holes he will be running over people again in 2012. The OL this season was horribly inconsistent.
Brooklyn Falcon
January 19th, 2012
4:31 pm
Ive been mulling over this for a few weeks now…Its obvious the we need better linemen. Good Fronts win Championships. I think we should trade him for some picks. He is a good player but 30 years old is old for a running back. Out with the old in with the youth ….It is a great discussion but with the hiring of Koetter I think we definitely are keeping Micheal Turner.
Foul-Can
January 19th, 2012
4:32 pm
What we need to ask is if we will continue to hang on those pipe dreams that Matty Melt will turn into Peyton? Matt Ryan lacks the arm, and the courage. It doesn’t matter which OC we bring in who like to throw the ball, if our QB lacks the ability, we will still be in the same position.
Matt "CHOKE" Ryan
January 19th, 2012
4:37 pm
If it quacks like a BUST
Well…..
HA HA HA
Rodster
January 19th, 2012
4:39 pm
Turner as well as some other veterans have to be on the table. There are a lot of decent running backs and you can fill that position for less money. The writer is correct, it’s a pass first league. To try and make it otherwise is kind of foolish. You don’t have to spend a ton of money to get what you need at running back. Get some young, big bruisers to run the ball. Sad to say, but they have about the shortest lived career span of any position on an NFL team. If we can trade Turner now would be the time to do it.
Gary O
January 19th, 2012
4:42 pm
I would trade turner for a 3rd or 4th round pick. Trade him 1 year too early, rather than 1 year too late. We ned the cap space, and the draft pick.
How about addiing a guy like Tashard Choice to the rotation of Snelling and Rodgers (if they dont want to go with Antone Smith).
None of the guys are stars, but with a better line, better play calling, and better execution, I think they could get the job done.
Matt "CHOKE" Ryan
January 19th, 2012
4:44 pm
Jeff
Arent you and Bradley tired of being wrong?
HA HA HA :
ohhhYEAH
January 19th, 2012
4:49 pm
WS
“In Gaint play off game, Smith shows how much he thinks of Turner, fourth and half yard, had Ryan run the ball.If It he stayed with Falcons he would have to lose weight and take a big pay cut.”
Yeah, it clearly had nothing to do with Smitty being ridiculed relentlessly by fans (probably you) for not running a qb sneak. Right?
ohhhYEAH
January 19th, 2012
4:52 pm
And to the people saying “Oh we need a RB by committe a la the Saints…” Uh, look where theyre at right now? Same boat as us right? If the system aint broke, don’t fix it. The system aint broken folks, we just need new parts. I think Snell and Quizz are more than capable of carrying the entire load for us last season. We dont need four and five running backs sharing loads all season, that’s ridiculous.
ohhhYEAH
January 19th, 2012
4:58 pm
And to the folks saying we need a RB by comittee, a la the Saints, get real. Arent they in the same boat as us right now? Watching the playoffs? Stick to what you know, if it aint broke, dont fix it. The system aint broke, we just need new parts. Snell and Quizz are more than capable.
Also, wouldn’t mind seeing what we could get for Roddy BUT, the only problem is, if we trade Roddy, Julio becomes the number 1 receiver. While that’s not a bad thing in istelf, there then becomes a void on the opposite side of the field, being as we would no longer have a true number 2 receiver.
call up William Andrews
January 19th, 2012
5:09 pm
Do you really have that much faith in a RB the size of a mouse (Rodgers)? He’s good for a couple screens and hope he can get loose, but not full time.
I understand your logic and will use the same logic for releasing, trading, or whatever other players.
But unless Snelling is signed and can make up for the yards lost with Turner, you’re gonna have to get another back.
Who do you expect to get? Oh yeah, Caleb King or Waushen Ealy might be available. Yes, that was a joke people.
byron
January 19th, 2012
5:11 pm
Give Snelling the same number of carries, and he will produce more. Also, he is a much better receiver.
steven a
January 19th, 2012
5:13 pm
No brainer gang. I would trade Mr “short bus” Michael Turner as soon as the league allows. Too slow, too soft, and too timid, for a man his size. Clowns that want to keep the “short bus” around need to youtube “Earl Campbell running back Houston Oilers” that’s how turner should be running the football with his size.
Taxi Smith
January 19th, 2012
5:14 pm
We need offensive linemen or NO ONE will be able to run. You could put Jim Brown behind the Atlanta offensive line and he would disappear into the ground.
Nerehere
January 19th, 2012
5:15 pm
Number one reason to get rid of Turner is cause he is way too slow in getting to the line, and then once he get’s to the line the line in clogged with the defense. Now, don’t get me wrong, the OL needs to be revamped, but even a new screen game would put Turner back 10 yards because he has to 1st, catch the pass, look field and find seams to run, in which-they’ll be closed because other teams have mastered Mike Turner’s running moves, and they, in essense, have latched on to the predictability factor of the Falcons, of which Micheal Turner plays a big part-with his predictable running style. Other teams know-that once he gets going, he sort of unstoppable, but they have been successful in getting to him immediately-before he gets going. Turner doesn’t explode through the holes that the offensive line provides. The window of opportunity for holes to develop is real small-as it pertained to the Falcons offensive line. Turner is too slow to get to those opportunities. Someone like a Sproles would’ve gotten to the line faster and came out the other side of those holes. That’s why I didn’t understand how the Falcons could have let go of a Jerious Norwood, because he was an explosive type of back that they needed. Why do you think Turner was a backup to LaDamion in SanDiego? We can keep Jaquez and Snelling. Trade Turner, while we can, then pick up a young bruiser who we can teach new tricks instead of trying to teach an old dog.
FL dawg
January 19th, 2012
5:15 pm
All depends on what your gonna get. Jaquiz is too small to pass block. If ypu trade Turner for #3 and 4 draft choices, you better get an OL and a fast back with some size, or the ever needed sleeper DB. Our secondary is pathetic.
steven a
January 19th, 2012
5:17 pm
Barry Sanders ran behind scrub lines and he still averaged 5.0 yds. per carry. Do not blame the O-line PEOPLE.
steven a
January 19th, 2012
5:20 pm
Michael Turner has turned into an over-weight scrub. It is time to cut bait and move forward. Against playoff teams, turner was A BIG NON-FACTOR. Check the STATS people.
td
January 19th, 2012
5:23 pm
Like every team, the Falcons need a Marshall Faulk in the backfield.
BloodthirstyPatterson
January 19th, 2012
5:30 pm
Michael Turner has turned into an over-sized elephant who is barely averaging over one yards per carry. Its for turner to take his turn as a backup to the leaner/faster/more powerful/quicker and more fleet afoot Snelling who is waiting to be a star in the NFL. Let Patty Cake sit and when there is a FOURTH AND INCHES, rather than ask the hefty, burly matt ryan to push the pile forward–call on backup Turner to get it done. Solution–problem solved.
JSS
January 19th, 2012
5:32 pm
steven a
January 19th, 2012
5:17 pm
“Barry Sanders ran behind scrub lines and he still averaged 5.0 yds. per carry.”
Sanders was running out of the “run and shoot,” he made use of wide gaps and being the late 20th century’s reincarnation of Hugh McElhenny and Gale Sayers! That man was not of this world! And you’re calling Kevin Glover and Lomas Brown “scrubs?”
Durt E Byrd
January 19th, 2012
5:39 pm
If we can we should trade him for a draft pick – or two if we can work it out.
Birrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrd Man
January 19th, 2012
5:43 pm
I like Turner, but he is pathetically slow getting past the line of scrimmage. Look at the 0-1 yard gains he has–not to mention negative runs. Andrews, Cain, Riggs, Anderson and even little Ericc Pegram got a yard if we needed a yard. I wonder if Peyton Hillis would like it here?
Dawg89
January 19th, 2012
5:44 pm
Should they keep Turner, “That’s a negative ghost rider, the pattern is full.”
Dawg89
January 19th, 2012
5:46 pm
Bet they could find a serviceable back for a fraction of the cost. Sell him and buy some defense.
Wait till next year!
January 19th, 2012
5:55 pm
New OC needs to worry about the O-Line first! Fixing the Line first will take care of a lot of problems. I don’t think it is just personnel either. I don’t think Malarkey was using the right plan for the people he had. What worked ok in 2010 didn’t work very well in 2011.
Wait till next year!
January 19th, 2012
5:56 pm
Loved the top gun quote Dawg89. That movie is a classic!
William Smith
January 19th, 2012
6:02 pm
The offense seems to get all the print. It seems unusual that two of the high powered offenses are out of the playoffs via the defensive route. Green Bay to the Giants and New Orleans to the 49ers. Go after a great defensive line aka Giants and 49ers and forget the offensive side of the ball except for the line. Remember when the Texans drafted Mario Williams and not Reggie Bush the outcry declaring the stupidity of the Texans. Would the Falcons have been better off keeping the draft choices and drafting someone like J.J. Watt. Something to think about.
steven a
January 19th, 2012
6:07 pm
Walter Payton “greatest running back ever” ran behind a scrub line. look at his numbers. opposing teams knew he would run and could not stop him. He was 40 lbs. lighter than “Burner”
steven a
January 19th, 2012
6:11 pm
J. J. Watt is Over Hyped. Drafting julio was absolutely the right move. He will be the next Jerry Rice, PERIOD!!!
TD has no clue!
January 19th, 2012
6:15 pm
Spags goes to NO as DC. Falcons are always a day late and a dollar short. TD has no clue.
doggoneit
January 19th, 2012
6:21 pm
NEXT MAN UP!!!
Jmoore
January 19th, 2012
6:23 pm
Trade turner for picks!!! saints traded bush and up graded in free agents…make the move..also trade white, harry can fill the #2 receiver spot and jones can be #1…..
Falcon Realist
January 19th, 2012
6:30 pm
I was calling for them to trade Turner two years ago before his trade value dissipated. Turner style: if there is a hole he get through there and he get 4 or 5 yard, sometimes breaks off 20. If there isn’t a hole he tiptoes and lays on the pile like a puppy laying on its master. He doesn’t move the pile anymore unless he gets a running start.
Lucky to get a 4 round pick. The Falcons need a more dynamic back. Rogers should me number two. Draft someone in the third or fourth round. Dallas got a bargain with Murray last year.
Dav
January 19th, 2012
6:32 pm
LOL . YOU WANT TO DO WHAT? WHAT ARE YOU SMOKING TODAY, TURNER IS THE BEST OFFENCE WE HAVE! BETTER THAT RYAN IS AT DOING HIS JOB. WE NEED TO GET A 2ND BACK WHERE TURNER ISN’T OUR ONLY RUNNER BUT MAN YOU ARE OFF YOUR ROCKER IF YOU THINK TURNER LEAVING WILL HELP THE FALCONS OR ANY TEAM………..
atlnative
January 19th, 2012
6:36 pm
Micheal Turner has been everything the Falcons’ organization thought he would be:A dominating,punishing,running back in the redzone.But Turner has carry the “rock” a lot since becoming an Atlanta Falcon in 2008.The running back position is the most grueling on offense.If you can get three quality years from a running back,your investment has made its return.Maybe it’s time to draft another blue chip back.Thank you Mr.Turner
yo Vince
January 19th, 2012
6:42 pm
CHOKE I just finished with your Momma, come get her.
yo Vince
January 19th, 2012
6:45 pm
Burner I love ya Bud, but while you still have value… you gotta go. I really believe you have lost a BIG step.
dirty bird
January 19th, 2012
6:45 pm
I’m a huge fan of Turner and think he has been more of the key to the O than even mr. iceman. But to be honest his days as an every down back are over.
CALVIN
January 19th, 2012
6:47 pm
trade him if possible, cut him otherwise. He is a solid back, but the big runs came on big holes any pro back could get through. We stopped using him on short yardage which clearly frustrated him. It’s time for big moves not tweaks.