Falcons’ question No. 1: Should Michael Turner be kept? (UPDATED)
The Falcons may need to sacrifice running back Michael Turner to fill other needs. (AP photo)
(UPDATED)
(This is the first in a series of blogs in which I’ll focus on some high-profile Falcons’ veterans and their respective uncertain future with the team.)
The Falcons need some fixes. They’re not a wreck. (Wrecks don’t make the playoffs in three out of four seasons.) But they have problems — offensive line, secondary and defensive line, for starters. They may need to fill holes during free agency, and that means they’ll need to create salary space. Some players will have to go.
Which brings me to Michael Turner.
This should not be taken as the start of a “Dump Michael Turner” movement. The guy finished third in the NFL in rushing with 1,340 yards. But the question of whether to keep him, cut him or trade him (if possible) for a mid-round draft pick is a legitimate one.
Because the Falcons don’t have first- or fourth-round picks this year (see: Julio Jones trade), they will have to plug more holes in free agency. That will mean salary-cap space. Turner is scheduled to make $5 million in salary next season, but has a cap hit of $7.5 million (factoring $2.5 million for his original signing bonus). He turns 30 years old next month. He has 1,189 carries in the past four seasons, which would wear down even a younger guy. (Technically, Turner is an eight-year back, but he had only 228 carries in his first four seasons in San Diego.)
At the very least, Turner is headed for a reduced role next season, as the Falcons want to give more touches to Jacquizz Rodgers, particularly in the screen game. Not integrating Rodgers into the offense was one of former offensive coordinator Mike Mularkey’s failings.
Understand something: The NFL has changed a lot over the past five years. It’s a pass-driven league now, and marquee running backs are not in great demand. Several teams, including New Orleans and Green Bay, now have gone the running back-by-committee route. If the Falcons made the decision to part with Turner, that committee would include Rodgers, Jason Snelling (a free agent) and Antone Smith, unless another back is drafted or signed in free agency.
Despite his production this season, Turner showed signs of wear. He had rushed for over 100 yards once in a span of eight games until gaining 172 in the regular season-ending blowout against Tampa Bay, a team that had clearly quit. The accompanying chart illustrates how his monthly average yards per carry dropped from 5.57 in September to 3.38 in December. His average yards per game (78.8) also was the lowest of his four seasons in Atlanta.
Does this mean Turner is toast? No. He can still be productive. He ran behind a weak line. He played with a lingering groin strain. But the Falcons’ line isn’t going to suddenly morph into the Hogs up front, and injuries are common with older running backs. The move from Mularkey to new offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter was made with an expansion of the passing attack in mind.
So should Turner be sacrificed? There’s no absolute right or wrong answer. But if the Falcons truly want to fix their holes on the offensive and defensive lines — and this game is still about blocking and tackling — cutting or dealing Turner may be necessary.
The thought of saying goodbye to a 1,340-yard rusher may seem like a strange one, but it’s a new league — and the Falcons need the money.
•
Below is a chart showing Turner’s yards per carry and average yards per game by month in each of his four seasons. Remember too that the final game this season brought up his final 2011 averages.
YEAR SEPT. OCT. NOV. DEC. JAN. TYPC TYPG
• 2008 (YPC) 5.48 3.43 4.04 5.22 -- 4.5 106.2
(YPG) 105.5 77.7 110.6 122.8 --
• 2009 (YPC) 3.48 3.34 7.81 7.0* -- 4.9 79.2
(YPG) 75.3 59.0 115.3 7.0 --
• 2010 (YPC) 3.98 4.88 4.21 3.51 3.94 4.1 85.7
(YPG) 77.0 89.0 96.8 82.5 67.0
• 2011 (YPC) 5.57 4.03 4.04 3.38 10.12 4.5 78.8
(YPG) 78.0 96.8 81.8 55.0 17 (*Turner played only 11 games in 2009 because of injuries, including 1 carry in December.)
•
And now, the floor is yours.
By Jeff Schultz
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697 comments Add your comment
Richard
January 19th, 2012
2:35 pm
Norway, yes, let’s compare Flacco and Ryan shall we? We’ll play door number 1 and number 2.
Door 1: 61% Completion Percentage, 4,177 YDs, 29 TDs, 12 INTs
Door 2: 57% Completion Percentage, 3,610 YDs, 20 TDs, 12 INTs
Which would you take. You would have to take #1. Guess who! Ryan. If you are trying to pound him on his playoff record, bear in mind that the Ravens have an excellent D and a running back that can out run linemen.
While I’m at it, I’d like to compare the stats for Ryan’s 4th season as a starter to those of Brady, Manning, and Brees (I won’t use Rodgers because he had 4 years to learn the offense before he became the starter, and the stats reflect that):
Ryan: 61%, 4,177 YDs, 29 TDs, 12 INTs
Brady: 60.8%, 3,692 YDs, 28 TDs, 14 INTs
Manning: 62.7%, 4131 YDs, 26 TDs, 23 INTs
Brees: 64.6%, 3,576 YDs, 24 TDs, 15 INTs
So why don’t we quiet down on the “Matt Ryan sucks” rhetoric.
No Way Norway
January 19th, 2012
2:40 pm
The problem with your argument is that all of those qb’s you referenced won Super Bowls by their 4th year. And I know you’re gonna say Brees played in San Diego for 4 years although it was really only 1 full year. Ryan has won nada. No playoff wins period !
RickRodney
January 19th, 2012
2:41 pm
Heres a couple of trades to think about:
Trade Mike Turner to the Vikings for Adrian Peterson
Trade Roddy White to the Arizona Cardinals for Larry Fitzgerald
Trade Matt Ryan to the Indianapolis Colts for Peyton Manning.
Now you have a team that can compete for all the marbles.
Sid
January 19th, 2012
2:41 pm
No Way Norway January 19th, 2012 2:12 pm
Ryan had chances to make plays against the Giants and didn’t. That’s what I saw.
Jarrett January 19th, 2012 2:15 pm
I don’t think anybody will deny that Matt Ryan had a horrible game against the Giants. You can’t define him by that one game though.
***********************************************
No pass protection, dropped passes, no lanes opened up for a ground game, no chance to be effective with play action passes……yep, Ryan had a lousy game.
No Way Norway
January 19th, 2012
2:42 pm
The Ravens have FAR less offensive weapons than Falcons have. They basically have Ray Rice & Anquan Boldin. That’s it. Ryan has TG,Turner,Roddy,Julio,etc.
Sid
January 19th, 2012
2:43 pm
Richard
January 19th, 2012
2:35 pm
*************************************
Numbers don’t lie, great post. You didn’t get your stats from me did you……………….lol…..!!!
No Way Norway
January 19th, 2012
2:44 pm
None of those trades are possible. Fitzgerald is better than Roddy. Peterson is worth 2 Turner’s. The Colts are gonna draft Andrew Luck. They wouldn’t trade Luck’s rights head up for Ryan.
JONESBORO SLIM
January 19th, 2012
2:45 pm
I see why the NFL lowered the rules of the game down to your level of understanding…..
mark
January 19th, 2012
2:46 pm
can somebody please tell me if there is any way to improved arm strenght and accuracy or we are doom, and we will need more of the same for ryan?! there aint like a manning clinic where he can go and improved?
King Falcon
January 19th, 2012
2:47 pm
That is ridiculous to contemplate cutting a productive back like Turner. Instead, they should incorporate another change of pace back like they should have done with Norwood when we had him and Rodgers which they failed to do this year. If you look backs like Jacobs for the Giants, they found a way to still let him contribute tremendously to the offense while bringing along another back like Bradshaw. And whoever said we should have gotten AJ Green obviously was not looking at production this year. Julio was only 100 yrds shy of matching AJ Green’s receiving yrds and that was with missing nearly 5 games. I would take Julio over AJ any day.
Ryan # 2
January 19th, 2012
2:47 pm
His jersey number is # 2 because his play stinks !
Richard
January 19th, 2012
2:54 pm
Won’t disagree that he hasn’t had the playoff success I would like to see, but that is a far cry from saying the guy needs to go. Short of a straight up trade of Ryan for Rodgers, I would take him over any other QB (the other guys are on the tail end of their careers).
Brees and Manning didn’t win Super Bowls until their 8th and 9th seasons, respectively.
Also, it was 2 full years and 1 year of 15 starts and 400 pass attempts, so I think that qualifies, but just to be extra clear I’ll throw out his seasons that he didn’t start every game and give you his stats from his sixth season as a starter: 67.5%, 4,423, 28 TDs, 18 INTs. Still pretty even.
Now if Matt doesn’t ever win a playoff game in his career, then we can have this conversation again and I’ll agree with you. My point is, he compares favorably with some of the top QBs in the league through his first 4 years.
And if Superbowls is the only stat that counts, do you really mean to tell me that Trent Dilfer is the equivalent of Peyton Manning?
rash
January 19th, 2012
2:56 pm
what a dumb question hell yeah they need to keep turner he only finished 3rd in the league in rushing ..he has been a fine work horse how about getting turner some help is what the question should be
rash
January 19th, 2012
3:00 pm
matty ice for president!!!! yall matty ice hatters yall will see different in the near future and matt for peyton dude you r crazy peyton is one hit away from a career that would be one stupid trade
Maurice
January 19th, 2012
3:01 pm
I’d swap him for Halle Berry…but she doesn’t play football. This is our team.
Greg M
January 19th, 2012
3:01 pm
Hell No, we keep him. It’s a system game. Turner does not have miles due to he waited on LT in San Diego and if we continue to use our Pro Bowl FB, Turner will be ok. Let the system work.
Greg M
January 19th, 2012
3:04 pm
I do like Forte in free agency though. Atlanta wants to run screen to perfection, he’s the guy!
DetroitBraves
January 19th, 2012
3:05 pm
It has often been said in sports that it is better to get rid of a player a year too soon than a year too late. I’m thinking this is the case with Turner so I vote that he is expendable. Which isn’t to say he absolutely has to go, but it’s a real consideration if it moves the team forward in other areas. Many successful teams have done exactly this with star players, watching them play well somewhere else for a year but then letting that somewhere else deal with the inevitable collapse. The Patriots do this and last I checked they’ve had so ok seasons.
chilidawg
January 19th, 2012
3:09 pm
Jeff, this is one of your better ideas. Many of Turner’s carries remind me of the scene in Animal House where the band marches down an alley and runs into a brick wall. How many times have we seen Turner take the handoff and run straight to the backside of his lineman and basically stop except for moving his feet. Unfortunately, the Falcons line does not open many holes, but a good back can find space to run. Turner seldom does that.
screg
January 19th, 2012
3:16 pm
Snelling is our best all around running back. He can get the rough yards, take the screen pass, he can run block and pass block and he was extremely under utilized last season. rogers is quick but not fast for his size. we could do without turner but i would rather have him then not have him.
fansince74
January 19th, 2012
3:17 pm
The idea of cutting Turner is ridiculous. He is still an elite back and still has a lot left in the tank. The Falcons have some issues that need to be addressed but Turner is not one of them. Put Turner behind a top Offensive Line and he might very well lead the league in rushing. The Falcons have to get better on the offensive and defensive lines. Getting beat at the line of scrimmage is a major reason why the Falcons keep getting bounced in the first round of the play-offs: they don’t win at the point of attack. They Falcons should sign and draft linemen to make their team better: ‘what a novel idea’ !
JSS
January 19th, 2012
3:18 pm
Oh that pesky Salary Cap, now you see what happens when you throw around huge signing bonuses (because they count against the cap year) like they are candy!
Most of you don’t even know who your team’s unrestricted free agents are… The NFL is not the NBA, you are not trading dollar for dollar when you jettison a player. You just make a choice not to add salary to the base floor that was agreed to in the player’s agreement. You’re not going to get 2nd or 3rd picks in a trade, it will be 4th, 5th, 6th round picks, look at the two Moss trades. Actually, you’d be lucky to get compensatory picks in the 3rd round or below under the NFL policy when you let UFAs go and don;t you sign someone over the price of the player let go… Really, at $5,000,000, Turner has been a bargain. You’ve gotten more than you deserved to get, the same goes for Ovie. The border question (and the more important one) is half of your RBs (remember Snelling was on a 1 year deal) will be coming back off major injuries (Snelling, broken jaw thus he will be under head injury protocol, Turner’s groin, and Ovie major knee reconstruction). You have to weigh the real price.
fansince74
January 19th, 2012
3:22 pm
The thought of cutting Turner is ridiculous. He is still an elite back with plenty left in the tank. The main reason for the Falcons short falls is their failing to win at the line of scrimmage. Why not focus on improving the offensive and defensive line? Now that’s a novel idea.
The Falconator
January 19th, 2012
3:24 pm
Hate to say it, but a RB such as Turner is only as good as the O-line and the holes they open. He is not built to run to the outside or do any speedster/fancy moves stuff. The $5MM Turner represents would be better spent on linemen. A draft/FA guard and first string LT are must haves and they’d better be BIG. Another versatile gem like Quizz would be nice. Snelling isn’t quite a feature back, but he hits hard and runs smart. The waiver wire sometimes offers an option who’s a fit. The line matters critically because, until they work, the RB’s don’t have an act. In any event, Turner is pretty well shot and it’s time to move on.
fansince74
January 19th, 2012
3:28 pm
Cut Turner ? Perish the thought! Instead, improve at offensive and defensive lines, that’s why the Falcons have not taken the next step and that’s why the Giants and 49ers are in the NFC Championship game: they win at the line of scrimmage!
JSS
January 19th, 2012
3:30 pm
And the days of taking advantage of the Raiders in trades are over! McKenzie is putting an end to that, they will be the hunter, not the hunted.
What is with you guys trying to sign (or trade) people coming off major injuries (Snelling, Forte, and Peterson)? This is not play money, you have to think of the consequences… Didn’t Ray Edwards and Dunta Robinson teach you anything?
fansince74
January 19th, 2012
3:36 pm
Those of you who think Turner is done: You Are Wrong! Period! He was the 3rd best in the league behind an OK line that couldn’t move folks when they played against good d-lines.
Ken
January 19th, 2012
3:37 pm
You have to keep Turner!! 3rd in the league rushing!!
Jeff Schultz
January 19th, 2012
3:38 pm
Folks, just recast the blog for print, made a few tweaks. J.
BIG JIM
January 19th, 2012
3:38 pm
keep turner build O-LINE to get stronger they are so weak they can’t get a push of the line..
Michael White
January 19th, 2012
3:38 pm
Sir: I am glad that you are a writer. You obviously do not know anything about football but keep trying.
JSS
January 19th, 2012
3:38 pm
There is no reason for any back in the modern NFL to be having 300 carries in a season…
Jeff Schultz
January 19th, 2012
3:45 pm
Hankie Aron — I think a third- to fifth-round pick probably is what you’re looking at for Turner.
PMC
January 19th, 2012
3:46 pm
I don’t think they can afford to trade Turner next year. To many other holes and they aren’t going to get even close to equitable value for him. What they need to do is cut his carries by half and keep him fresh next year.
If you’re going to spend 72 million on a QB, put it on him to win games. Throw the BALL!
Jeff Schultz
January 19th, 2012
3:47 pm
Matty Slush — yes, we’ve seen some bad third- and fourth-and-short runs. Some of that is on the line though.
Jeff Schultz
January 19th, 2012
3:47 pm
Freddy — yep, should’ve had a poll. Oh well, now it’s kind of late.
PMC
January 19th, 2012
3:48 pm
Consider he was running into defenses that knew EXACTLY what was coming too.
Mularkey; creative and inventive are not words that belong in the same hemisphere.
Jeff Schultz
January 19th, 2012
3:49 pm
Therut — Gotcha. You’re on the record.
PMC
January 19th, 2012
3:49 pm
Since we’re talking Raiders though, I wonder if Michael Bush might be available. Maybe not after the 2nd half he had last year.
SirReal
January 19th, 2012
3:49 pm
@JSS That I must agree with….300 is way too many. Even my two year old knew they were gonna hand the ball off.lol
Jeff Schultz
January 19th, 2012
3:50 pm
Matt “Choke” Ryan — You’re right: If he played with Vick this season, Turner would’ve had 2000 yards. And he would’ve missed the playoffs.
garcia
January 19th, 2012
3:50 pm
The answer to the question boils down to what Koetter’s plans are for our offense. From what I have gathered, he wants to have a balanced attack with a sophisticated passing game. The offense will likelhy feature three to four WR’s and a single RB. That RB must be able to pass protect and catch passes out of the backfield.
In my opinioin, Snelling and Rodgers are better fits for the new offense than Turner. For that reason (and his advancing age), I would trade him. He will have value to a team with the desire to improve their power run sets. It would be great to get a 4th rounder for him.
Jeff Schultz
January 19th, 2012
3:54 pm
Sid — “Jeff, don’t know where you got your stats from but Turner finished the year 7th in rushing.”
No, you’re wrong. He was seventh in yards per carry (4.5), which is the default on NFL.com stats page, but he was third in total yards, behind Maurice Jones Drew and Ray Rice. Here’s the link.
http://www.nfl.com/stats/categorystats?seasonType=REG&d-447263-n=1&d-447263-o=2&d-447263-p=1&d-447263-s=RUSHING_YARDS&tabSeq=0&season=2011&experience=null&Submit=Go&archive=false&conference=null&statisticCategory=RUSHING&qualified=true
Jeff Schultz
January 19th, 2012
3:56 pm
Aziz Jiwani — Not saying that Dunta Robinson is not in play, but I think cutting him would cause too big of a cap hit because his signing bonus/guaranteed money is prorated.
DawgDad
January 19th, 2012
3:59 pm
Dunta is to Falcons as Uggla is to Braves.
JSS
January 19th, 2012
4:06 pm
@ Jeff Schultz…
at 3:56PM Exactly!!! The Falcons have done them self a great disservice in how they used bonuses and guaranteed money…
They need to move Robinson to Free Safety and let DeCoud walk to a team which can cover for propensity to bite and get beat over the top… If he doesn’t pan our, what have you really lost? And you save against the cap…
just sayin
January 19th, 2012
4:07 pm
keep him, let snelling walk, and bring in a back in free agency like marshawn lynch.
JSS
January 19th, 2012
4:08 pm
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
“If he doesn’t pan out”
Manny
January 19th, 2012
4:11 pm
Keep Turner and use him in the screen. Keep Quizz and get some Thunder and Lightning going. But all of this is nothing without a line. You gotta get the line fixed first and foremost.
Jason Snelling should remain, but if you can get something out of him in a trade, trade him. Not that I don’t like him, but he can be better served as trade bait.
LKW4
January 19th, 2012
4:14 pm
No dump the lard a$$ as fast as you can. He didn’t help the Falcons at all. How can you make any major plays when you run with your eyes closed and fall down as soon as someone looks your way! Rogers is a great repelacement for this overpaid underperforming so called Falcon.
Please DUMP him ASAP!!!!!!