Falcons’ question No. 1: Should Michael Turner be kept? (UPDATED)
The Falcons may need to sacrifice running back Michael Turner to fill other needs. (AP photo)
(UPDATED)
(This is the first in a series of blogs in which I’ll focus on some high-profile Falcons’ veterans and their respective uncertain future with the team.)
The Falcons need some fixes. They’re not a wreck. (Wrecks don’t make the playoffs in three out of four seasons.) But they have problems — offensive line, secondary and defensive line, for starters. They may need to fill holes during free agency, and that means they’ll need to create salary space. Some players will have to go.
Which brings me to Michael Turner.
This should not be taken as the start of a “Dump Michael Turner” movement. The guy finished third in the NFL in rushing with 1,340 yards. But the question of whether to keep him, cut him or trade him (if possible) for a mid-round draft pick is a legitimate one.
Because the Falcons don’t have first- or fourth-round picks this year (see: Julio Jones trade), they will have to plug more holes in free agency. That will mean salary-cap space. Turner is scheduled to make $5 million in salary next season, but has a cap hit of $7.5 million (factoring $2.5 million for his original signing bonus). He turns 30 years old next month. He has 1,189 carries in the past four seasons, which would wear down even a younger guy. (Technically, Turner is an eight-year back, but he had only 228 carries in his first four seasons in San Diego.)
At the very least, Turner is headed for a reduced role next season, as the Falcons want to give more touches to Jacquizz Rodgers, particularly in the screen game. Not integrating Rodgers into the offense was one of former offensive coordinator Mike Mularkey’s failings.
Understand something: The NFL has changed a lot over the past five years. It’s a pass-driven league now, and marquee running backs are not in great demand. Several teams, including New Orleans and Green Bay, now have gone the running back-by-committee route. If the Falcons made the decision to part with Turner, that committee would include Rodgers, Jason Snelling (a free agent) and Antone Smith, unless another back is drafted or signed in free agency.
Despite his production this season, Turner showed signs of wear. He had rushed for over 100 yards once in a span of eight games until gaining 172 in the regular season-ending blowout against Tampa Bay, a team that had clearly quit. The accompanying chart illustrates how his monthly average yards per carry dropped from 5.57 in September to 3.38 in December. His average yards per game (78.8) also was the lowest of his four seasons in Atlanta.
Does this mean Turner is toast? No. He can still be productive. He ran behind a weak line. He played with a lingering groin strain. But the Falcons’ line isn’t going to suddenly morph into the Hogs up front, and injuries are common with older running backs. The move from Mularkey to new offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter was made with an expansion of the passing attack in mind.
So should Turner be sacrificed? There’s no absolute right or wrong answer. But if the Falcons truly want to fix their holes on the offensive and defensive lines — and this game is still about blocking and tackling — cutting or dealing Turner may be necessary.
The thought of saying goodbye to a 1,340-yard rusher may seem like a strange one, but it’s a new league — and the Falcons need the money.
•
Below is a chart showing Turner’s yards per carry and average yards per game by month in each of his four seasons. Remember too that the final game this season brought up his final 2011 averages.
YEAR SEPT. OCT. NOV. DEC. JAN. TYPC TYPG
• 2008 (YPC) 5.48 3.43 4.04 5.22 -- 4.5 106.2
(YPG) 105.5 77.7 110.6 122.8 --
• 2009 (YPC) 3.48 3.34 7.81 7.0* -- 4.9 79.2
(YPG) 75.3 59.0 115.3 7.0 --
• 2010 (YPC) 3.98 4.88 4.21 3.51 3.94 4.1 85.7
(YPG) 77.0 89.0 96.8 82.5 67.0
• 2011 (YPC) 5.57 4.03 4.04 3.38 10.12 4.5 78.8
(YPG) 78.0 96.8 81.8 55.0 17 (*Turner played only 11 games in 2009 because of injuries, including 1 carry in December.)
•
And now, the floor is yours.
By Jeff Schultz
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697 comments Add your comment
nique
January 19th, 2012
1:46 pm
There’s no way in hell this should be anywhere near the first question asked with this team!!! You create cap room with cap casualities, not with productive players & say what you want, Turner is a productive player. So ppl like Sam Baker those are the ppl you start with, not a ? about the # 3 rusher in the NFL. With that said, Turner’s carries should be dramatically reduced & there is a question if he’s even the best fit for this offense anymore, but Smith seems dedicated to a smashing style of runnig game, which Turner excells in, the only problem is that we don’t have the smashmouth O-Line to go with the smashmouth rb. If we fix that, which we have to in order to become the team we all want & desire, then all the questions about Turner go away!
King Peter
January 19th, 2012
1:47 pm
Dump the chump, Turner.
FalconFan
January 19th, 2012
1:48 pm
No Way Norway,
Last time I looked, Drew Brees and Aaron Rogers are out of the playoffs too. And just to correct one thing, Ryan beat Baltimore and Green Bay in the regular season along with New Orleans. And don’t say we beat New Orleans last year because their kicker missed a field goal. So did ours this year in the Dome.
Charles
January 19th, 2012
1:49 pm
Give me a “put your foot in the ground n go” back. They’re out there, scouting department, go find him!
FalconFan
January 19th, 2012
1:50 pm
Norway,
And I was speaking of the 2010 regular season, not this year. Although the only good win this year was against Detroit.
No Way Norway
January 19th, 2012
1:54 pm
Well you just supported my argument by saying Detroit was only good team they beat this year. Drew Brees & Aaron Rodgers scored 31 & 17 points in their playoff losses. Ryan had 0 points in the loss to Giants. The Saints & Packers losses were on their defense. The Falcons loss was on the offense especially Matt Ryan !
King Peter
January 19th, 2012
1:57 pm
Turner is not the only player the Falcons should cut,theres a lot of dead wood on this team thats dragging it down.over half the FA on this team should not be retained!
No Way Norway
January 19th, 2012
1:58 pm
Matt Ryan’s offense = 0,none,nonya,zilch,nada,nuttin’,flat zero.
No Way Norway
January 19th, 2012
2:00 pm
Instead of calling Matt Ryan “Matty Ice” he should be called Mr.Sub-Zero”.
King Peter
January 19th, 2012
2:02 pm
Matt Ryan is not the problem,he’s the anwser!
Jarrett
January 19th, 2012
2:02 pm
No Way Norway. Dude isn’t going to put up points every game. It’s the NFL, it happens. He still put up a lot of scores in 2011. Not to mention almost every other year. So just quit. And the team he couldn’t score against is in the Championship game playing lights out football of Defense.
No Way Norway
January 19th, 2012
2:02 pm
Jeff, since Ryan played like sheet against the Giants please let him be question “Number 2″ !
DC Dirty Bird
January 19th, 2012
2:04 pm
Norway,
Why would you judge Ryan who plays in a ground and pound offense to Brees and Rodgers who play in a pass first offense. The guy threw for 4K in a run oriented offense which features a very basic passing game. As much as folks invicerate Ryan for the throws he’s missed, why can others do the same for Turner regarding the runs he didn’t convert into TD’s, the holes that he missed, the goal line fumbles, and the times he went down for a loss without fighting to get back to the line of scrimmage.
The difference between Ryan is, he’s only in his 4th year and has a lot of room to grow under the right tutelage. Turner has peaked and seemly can’t get back down to the 225-240 range he was at when we acquired him. Its common knowledge that he plays at well above 250. He’s easily the biggest and slowest feature back in the league.
Ron
January 19th, 2012
2:04 pm
where’s the guy that was bragging of Sam(Bob Whitfield) Baker earlier in the season?
Scotty To Hotty
January 19th, 2012
2:04 pm
I think they should keep turner the burner and trade for Peyton Manning so we can win a playoff game!!
No Way Norway
January 19th, 2012
2:05 pm
Let’s see, he was drafted ahead of Joe Flacco but has zero playoff wins. Flacco has 3 playoff wins and maybe a Super Bowl this year. The object of football is scoring points. Every qb is counted on to do that on every team. Even in pee wee league…
Great Falconi
January 19th, 2012
2:05 pm
I’d keep Turner for another season in that reduced role. He’s still a good player. I don’t think the O-line was good enough this season to consistently give him room to run. It may also have been a schematic problem. One thing I do know is that he can’t make a cut on a dime. That element has to be there for this team to be more dangerous in the run game.
No Way Norway
January 19th, 2012
2:06 pm
This is Aaron Rodgers 3rd year. Your argument leaks…
Jarrett
January 19th, 2012
2:06 pm
Who cares. How many Super Bowls does Flacco have? Exactly.
Jarrett
January 19th, 2012
2:07 pm
Aaron Rodgers has a sweet team backed behind him. We have a lot of holes.
Sid
January 19th, 2012
2:07 pm
ChiFalcon January 19th, 2012 12:44 pm
Sid…
You need to check your stats my friend. Turner’s 1340 rushing yards did place him 3rd overall in the NFL this past year.
*********************************************************
I see the error of my ways. This is where I got my info………….
http://www.nfl.com/stats/categorystats?tabSeq=0&statisticCategory=RUSHING&season=2011&seasonType=REG
I didn’t notice that the total yards was not the measure…..my bad Schultzie……. this was ranked by average yards per game.
You still could get a splinter sitting on that fence though.
Die Hard Falcon
January 19th, 2012
2:08 pm
No way Norway–
Are you Matt “Choke” Ryan posting under another name? Your argument holds NO weight. Look at the stats, all the wins, the 4th qtr comebacks all behind an inferior line. Look at the skills in the no huddle when he’s calling the plays. You are just hating, no substance behind those comments and EVERYONE who watches the games and knows the stats knows that Matt Ryan is not our problem, he is a top 10 QB. Go Falcons!!!
No Way Norway
January 19th, 2012
2:08 pm
I don’t care what anyone says. Matt Ryan’s poor play was the main reason the Falcons got beat by the Giants. I know what my eyes saw.
Jarrett
January 19th, 2012
2:08 pm
Cool story Bro
No Way Norway
January 19th, 2012
2:09 pm
Matt Ryan has Turner,Gonzalez,Roddy,Julio. Rodgers has Grant,J.Nelson,Driver,Jennings. They have about the same weapons.
Jarrett
January 19th, 2012
2:10 pm
It’s all in the O-line. Doesn’t matter how many weapons you have. If there are no holes or room to run you got nothing.
No Way Norway
January 19th, 2012
2:10 pm
Ryan gets a break cause its his 4th year ? Tebow was a rookie and got farther than he did.
Die Hard Falcon
January 19th, 2012
2:12 pm
This is not Aaron Rodgers 3rd year, it WAS his 4th starting and 7th or 8th overall after sitting behind a future HOF and as someone else pointed out on a much more stacked team.
Joe Flacco isn’t better just b/c his Defense has helped them win some playoff games dude has 6 TDs and 7 INTs in playoffs, not any better than Ryan.
I know that Ryan hasn’t done well in his playoff games, but he didn’t have a good D and the running game was mostly stalled in those games. I guarantee every NFL GM if faced w/ the decision of Flacco or Ryan would take Ryan, bet the farm in norway on it.
No Way Norway
January 19th, 2012
2:12 pm
Ryan had chances to make plays against the Giants and didn’t. That’s what I saw.
Jarrett
January 19th, 2012
2:13 pm
Tebow? Really?
No Way Norway
January 19th, 2012
2:15 pm
No Way Die Hard, me farm is not up for betting. I bet the Ravens would take Flacco over Ryan right now. If they had Ryan they’d be home watching the games like you and me.
Jarrett
January 19th, 2012
2:15 pm
I don’t think anybody will deny that Matt Ryan had a horrible game against the Giants. You can’t define him by that one game though.
No Way Norway
January 19th, 2012
2:16 pm
Did you see that pathetic play where Ryan tried falling down and sliding with the safety 10 yards away from him ? Ugliest play I’ve ever seen.
Glenn Davis
January 19th, 2012
2:16 pm
Yes! He’s too old, too slow, and two fat. Hell he runs out of gas before he can get the corner.
Die Hard Falcon
January 19th, 2012
2:16 pm
So Norway,
you’re talking about 1 game against the NYG this year, obviously it wasn’t a good game, but you can’t cherry pick. Brady/Brees/Rodgers/Manning (both of them)have ALL had bad games. Looking at MR2’s winning % and stats it’s clear he’s a top 10 QB Stop hating
Sid
January 19th, 2012
2:16 pm
Jarrett January 19th, 2012 2:10 pm
It’s all in the O-line. Doesn’t matter how many weapons you have. If there are no holes or room to run you got nothing.
**********************************************
Not to mention your O lines lack of pass protection. Hell, if you got no O line, you’ve also lost your play action pass.
DC Dirty Bird
January 19th, 2012
2:18 pm
Norway,
Get things your facts straight. Tebow was not a rookie and had it not been for some questionable defensive calling by the Steelers the Broncos would have backed into the playoffs and backed right out. Also, Aaron Rodgers is in his 7th year after having sat behind Brett Favre for 3 years.
Question for you, why did the Green Bay offense only score 17 points at home versus the Giants?
No Way Norway
January 19th, 2012
2:20 pm
Nice tribute to Ryan’s performance against Giants… http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sHKyFGRQIGU
DC Dirty Bird
January 19th, 2012
2:21 pm
Ravens would take Flacco over Ryan? Really, did see, hear, or read the about the interview Ed Reed just gave regarding Flacco? Its obvious Norway doesn’t have a pulse for the league or what the folks who actually play the game think.
No Way Norway
January 19th, 2012
2:25 pm
I didn’t know you counted years sitting on the bench as playing time ? I actually count starting time as the time played. With your analogy Bobby Cox played 59 years. He coached sitting on the bench for 50 of them…
DC Dirty Bird
January 19th, 2012
2:26 pm
Here’s a question, if we could get a player like Michael Bush from Oakland for 2 million a year, is Michael Turner worth keeping at 5 million a year?
No Way Norway
January 19th, 2012
2:27 pm
You’re not REALLY in the league unless you are PLAYING in the league. If a guy sits on the bench 9 years then plays the 10th year that year is his ROOKIE year to me.
No Way Norway
January 19th, 2012
2:29 pm
As the video said, Ryan has so many weapons and doesn’t know how to use them. He’s like a 2 year-old holding an AR-16 & a Bazooka.
DC Dirty Bird
January 19th, 2012
2:29 pm
Norway, while you’re not starting you’re still getting snaps in practice versus an NFL defense. If you had any clue as to what people who have been in the game say, you’d know that most if not all people attribute Rodgers success to him being able to sit for three years, soak up the play book, and gain confidence in his throws against the big boys without the pressure of winning on Sunday.
No Way Norway
January 19th, 2012
2:32 pm
No, die-hard. I keep the same name at least all day while you post as 100,000 different names here.
DC Dirty Bird
January 19th, 2012
2:32 pm
When you’re the number 2 QB you prep each week like you’re going to play. Plus you’re getting plenty of preseason snaps. That you’re a rookie to me statement is a joke.
bigdawg
January 19th, 2012
2:33 pm
keep snelling all he did was produce Turner time is up he is to slow need offensive line also can’t get a yard and everyone knew mularky was going to run up the middle when it should have been a play action short pass for the first on several occasions. We need speed in the backfield.
mark
January 19th, 2012
2:33 pm
time to go mike thnks for all really!, but its time to have some speedy back, and hell michael bush is a FA THIS SEASON its like a mini turner all over again they should go and sign him, what jeff dosent say about the saints run team its that they have the two best guards in the league, hell even i can run the ball with that line! we need a rb who dosent need 8 yards ti gain some steam and cant run fast and hard, just imagine if turner is old and solow and ran 1,000 yards imagine what a speedy rb can do!
No Way Norway
January 19th, 2012
2:34 pm
Yeah that sitting and soaking it up 3 years is good. The Panthers stuck Cam Newton right in there and he played better than Ryan did. Ditto for Andy Dalton in Cincy.
Email Profiling Is Wrong
January 19th, 2012
2:34 pm
@Die Hard Falcon
You’re making the “glass is half full” argument for Ryan – and doing a pretty good job of it too.
But he’s got deficiencies related to accuracy and arm strength. Both have been criticisms of him since his college days. Both are evident even when he’s got plenty of time in the pocket and neither is likely to improve much. Given that, he’ll never be able to make the higher-risk passes all big-time QB’s make.
He also demonstrates poor pocket awareness and tends to flee the pocket under pressure, so he’s not real effective buying the time needed to find open guy for the low-risk passes he can throw. Maybe he’ll improve in these areas. Like you said, a better OL won’t hurt.
Is Ryan a top ten QB? I wonder how many teams in the NFL would trade their starting QB, straight up, one-for-one, for Ryan today? If there are no more than nine QB’s better, as that ranking suggests, then wouldn’t at least 21 teams jump at the opportunity to get him? I can’t see that happening. Particularly after his performance this year – both in the regular season and the playoff game. If you take a quick inventory of the QB situation in the NFC alone, I expect most teams would stay with their current guy over Matt.
I know Ryan’s not going anywhere, but his overall QB performance has to improve. I think he needs to be challenged in order to make that improvement. It’s up to the organization to figure out how to do ti. Based on their public comments, I don’t think that challenge is forthcoming.
@Richard.
Please see Die Hard Falcon’s post for a way to disagree with somebody’s opinion without getting all hostile and huffy.