Falcons’ question No. 1: Should Michael Turner be kept? (UPDATED)
The Falcons may need to sacrifice running back Michael Turner to fill other needs. (AP photo)
(UPDATED)
(This is the first in a series of blogs in which I’ll focus on some high-profile Falcons’ veterans and their respective uncertain future with the team.)
The Falcons need some fixes. They’re not a wreck. (Wrecks don’t make the playoffs in three out of four seasons.) But they have problems — offensive line, secondary and defensive line, for starters. They may need to fill holes during free agency, and that means they’ll need to create salary space. Some players will have to go.
Which brings me to Michael Turner.
This should not be taken as the start of a “Dump Michael Turner” movement. The guy finished third in the NFL in rushing with 1,340 yards. But the question of whether to keep him, cut him or trade him (if possible) for a mid-round draft pick is a legitimate one.
Because the Falcons don’t have first- or fourth-round picks this year (see: Julio Jones trade), they will have to plug more holes in free agency. That will mean salary-cap space. Turner is scheduled to make $5 million in salary next season, but has a cap hit of $7.5 million (factoring $2.5 million for his original signing bonus). He turns 30 years old next month. He has 1,189 carries in the past four seasons, which would wear down even a younger guy. (Technically, Turner is an eight-year back, but he had only 228 carries in his first four seasons in San Diego.)
At the very least, Turner is headed for a reduced role next season, as the Falcons want to give more touches to Jacquizz Rodgers, particularly in the screen game. Not integrating Rodgers into the offense was one of former offensive coordinator Mike Mularkey’s failings.
Understand something: The NFL has changed a lot over the past five years. It’s a pass-driven league now, and marquee running backs are not in great demand. Several teams, including New Orleans and Green Bay, now have gone the running back-by-committee route. If the Falcons made the decision to part with Turner, that committee would include Rodgers, Jason Snelling (a free agent) and Antone Smith, unless another back is drafted or signed in free agency.
Despite his production this season, Turner showed signs of wear. He had rushed for over 100 yards once in a span of eight games until gaining 172 in the regular season-ending blowout against Tampa Bay, a team that had clearly quit. The accompanying chart illustrates how his monthly average yards per carry dropped from 5.57 in September to 3.38 in December. His average yards per game (78.8) also was the lowest of his four seasons in Atlanta.
Does this mean Turner is toast? No. He can still be productive. He ran behind a weak line. He played with a lingering groin strain. But the Falcons’ line isn’t going to suddenly morph into the Hogs up front, and injuries are common with older running backs. The move from Mularkey to new offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter was made with an expansion of the passing attack in mind.
So should Turner be sacrificed? There’s no absolute right or wrong answer. But if the Falcons truly want to fix their holes on the offensive and defensive lines — and this game is still about blocking and tackling — cutting or dealing Turner may be necessary.
The thought of saying goodbye to a 1,340-yard rusher may seem like a strange one, but it’s a new league — and the Falcons need the money.
•
Below is a chart showing Turner’s yards per carry and average yards per game by month in each of his four seasons. Remember too that the final game this season brought up his final 2011 averages.
YEAR SEPT. OCT. NOV. DEC. JAN. TYPC TYPG
• 2008 (YPC) 5.48 3.43 4.04 5.22 -- 4.5 106.2
(YPG) 105.5 77.7 110.6 122.8 --
• 2009 (YPC) 3.48 3.34 7.81 7.0* -- 4.9 79.2
(YPG) 75.3 59.0 115.3 7.0 --
• 2010 (YPC) 3.98 4.88 4.21 3.51 3.94 4.1 85.7
(YPG) 77.0 89.0 96.8 82.5 67.0
• 2011 (YPC) 5.57 4.03 4.04 3.38 10.12 4.5 78.8
(YPG) 78.0 96.8 81.8 55.0 17 (*Turner played only 11 games in 2009 because of injuries, including 1 carry in December.)
•
And now, the floor is yours.
By Jeff Schultz
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697 comments Add your comment
tyger
January 19th, 2012
10:33 am
Are u kidding me???
Falcons Question #1: Should the Falcoons keep Matt Ryan? aka Matty “Tap Water”
Bad Dawg, Bad Dawg
January 19th, 2012
10:33 am
No…..I know someone will show me the stats but the fact is that Atlanta needs a featured RB with speed and agility (i.e. New Orleans). He is slow but powerful runner. At the very least Atlanta needs to compliment his power with lateral speed on the corners.
yeahsure
January 19th, 2012
10:36 am
Im a big Turner fan but whens the last time you saw him take one to the house. He is really slow. Stephen Jackson is huge but seems faster. I say trade him while we can. Its the Patriot way. We need to get younger and faster at the RB position.
curt
January 19th, 2012
10:36 am
Michael Turner is slow getting to the line. Add to it that he sets up very deep and you make linemen have to hold blocks longer than sometimes is possible.
To his credit Turner gets a lot of yards but I wonder what someone like Peterson would have done in the same situation.
To answer the question, I would not mind having Turner back in a lesser role and for less money. That said, assuming he would not take less money, it might be time to let him go and find someone cheaper who can add to the “running back by committee” that you suggest the Falcons may be headed towards.
Jarrett
January 19th, 2012
10:36 am
You’re right 4200 yards and 29 TD’s is awful for a QB. Gimme a break. Next.
JeanE
January 19th, 2012
10:37 am
Bosher is fine, he got progressively better as the year went on. I never saw a bigger back who tip toed to the line and went down so easily. Would be great if we could pry some picks away from another team. I’m fine with trading Roddy, too. He’s a head case again now that Julio is here. Give Harry a bigger role!
Kris
January 19th, 2012
10:40 am
the burner is burned @ss out, move him now, or risk more season ticket holders to move, away from the dome.
Therut
January 19th, 2012
10:42 am
Okay Jeff, if you are reading what I am reading you have your answer. I’ll go a step further and say if they keep him (Turner) they are nuts. He kills us in crunch time!
Matt "CHOKE" Ryan
January 19th, 2012
10:43 am
He would have 2,000 yards a season if he played with Vick
JeanE
January 19th, 2012
10:43 am
I agree with everyone saying the o-line bears alot of the responsibility for the lack of run production. That’s obvious. O-line has to improve. They probably will give Turner 1 more year but I say now is the time to try and trade him before his decline is more obvious and we get nothing for him. NE never holds on to their players too long. I feel very comfortable with Rodgers and Snelling and Ovie will be back (sorely missed him!). They probably would never trade Roddy, but they should seriously look at that, too. We could get alot for him now as well. We have depth at receiver although I say dump Kerry Meier and Weems. Should’ve kept Finn around. I’m still bitter about that. But the Falcons never do drastic stuff like these roster moves. It’s always same old, same old.
Too tough
January 19th, 2012
10:44 am
Turner, has NO push until he gets past the initial line of scrimage (of which has been a weak pitiful O line) but, I would ask him to take a pay cut to stay. I ALWAYS wanted to see Antoine Smith get more playing time, he is tough! Jaquizz and Snelling too…Turner having only 238 carries prior to arriving in ATL. Now, he has been banged up alot…If it was my $ and team…would ask him take a pay cut to stay..or Hmmmmmm Trade him for 1st round pick. As we all over the NFL…there are no Barry Sanders, Larry Csonka’s,Emmit Smiths, Gale Sayers type players that are house hold names. Its running back by committee these days! Antione, Jaquizz, Jason#44, and Turner, Now that would be a force to be reckoned with! ya think the new O C will have any inkling how to utilize these backs…I got to tell….I sure hope so, at this point its hard for me to have any confidence in in the new OC hire. With the great running back Koeter had in Jacksonville…well , he coudlnt do nothing with him..Coach Smith, I gotta say, as a long time Falcon Fan…I was dissapointed with this OC you have choosen. What a let down to me as a fan to so suddnely select someone that fast with NO real track record of getting results…I am sadly hurt as a Falcon fan! I would totally love for him to prove me wrong! Go FALCONS!
Jarrett
January 19th, 2012
10:44 am
Lets be clear. He would have 1000 yards, Vick would have 1000 yards, and we would be 6-10.
Too tough
January 19th, 2012
10:46 am
One more thing…If Turner was that good, he wouldnt go down so easy at the line of scrimage..I think we want him to be that kind of runner, but, he wants to be a scat back…
Jarrett
January 19th, 2012
10:47 am
Too Tough. That running back Koetter had in Jacksonville had 1600 yards and no passing game.
extremus
January 19th, 2012
10:48 am
No. It’s time for a new featured back who can eat up yards and not leave the Falcons in second or third-and-longs eight out of every ten carries.
Matt "CHOKE" Ryan
January 19th, 2012
10:52 am
Why is everyone tap dancing around the main achilles heel?
Can win with a CHOKE
Dumbo
January 19th, 2012
10:53 am
Just remember that when Ovie went down, the running game was stopped in it’s tracks. However, Turner is almost at the end of his career and it would make a lot more sense to unload him now and save some money. That being said…the new OC has got to decide along with HC what they want the running game to be , either a power game or a finese speed game. Once this is decided then they can decide on Turner.
Statick
January 19th, 2012
10:54 am
If we are planning to run more screens, then letting Turner go would make sense, wouldn’t it? After all, he’s already shown he has problems catching passes when they are thrown to him. Jaquizz Rodgers would be the prime back in Koetter’s offensive scheme one would think.
Stiffneck
January 19th, 2012
10:56 am
At 30 he’s old for a running back. Could moving him to fullback work? Since he’s pretty much a straight ahead runner and a good blocker this might be a fit. Otherwise, package him and Roddy “dropsie” White in a trade and get a younger more dynamic back.
Matt "CHOKE" Ryan
January 19th, 2012
10:56 am
Flacco is still in the playoffs
Big Un
January 19th, 2012
10:56 am
Matt “CHOKE” Ryan…dang I see you still love using passe’ smiley faces…what a fool…bet you still listen to MBell in the afternoons, like he really has a grip on sports…sport, grow up be a man, lift the lid like dad
Angelo
January 19th, 2012
10:58 am
Keep Turner one more year.
Carl from Slingblade
January 19th, 2012
10:59 am
Turner was good during his Falcon tenure and I’m sure all us fans appreciate his work these past years but the fact is that he can’t break runs to the outside because he has lost a step and then some, and Rodgers needs to be incorporated much more. I think we’ll be just fine with a Jacquizz/Snelling combo
No Way Norway
January 19th, 2012
10:59 am
I think Snelling could give you Turner type numbers. Move Turner and let Snelling & Rodgers carry the rock.
The problems is really at DE and DB on defense. And it goes hand in hand too. When Abraham & others don’t get pressure on Brees,A.Rodgers,whomever at QB then they get burned by the pass. To make matters worse you’ve got Dunta & others about 10 yards off the receivers. Its a recipe for disaster and the results show it !
I think Matt Ryan is a problem too. He misfires on routes too many times. The receiver runs an out and he throws a crossing pattern. And he also panics when flushed out of the pocket. His throws are not on the money consistently like Brees,E.Manning,Rodgers,etc. He should be progressing after 5 years in the league but he hasn’t.
cwltank
January 19th, 2012
10:59 am
Julio posted nearly 1000 yards despite being injured for 3 games. Stop complaing the Falcons have the pieces to the puzzle, they only need leadership.
Hummon
January 19th, 2012
10:59 am
His YPC this season inflated by a few long runs, especially that big one in the last game. He certainly seemed to have many more runs this season than in previous years that resulted less than nothing, nothing, or very little. Much of that is due to subpar line play, to be sure, but he seems to have taken the first steps into the land of the washed up.
Matt Ryan overated and at stand still
January 19th, 2012
11:00 am
Jfreak13713
January 19th, 2012
8:52 am
I love to see those who say cut Matt Ryan but I’d like to ask them who would they replace him with? Ryan is a top 10 QB even with a bad / boring offensive Coord. People don’t let your hurt feelings expose your stupidity. Unless the Pats, Packers, Saints, Steelers, or Lions are willing to swap QB Ryan is our QB and in my opinion a damn good one.
The standard is the playoffs! Matt has all the tool to win top running back reciver and look at the playoffs!! Deer in the headlight he has peeked~! Cam he is from Georgia But they are not going to give him up . Matt will not get it done in the playoff. Playoffs defence know his weakness bank on it!!
Cornell Sims
January 19th, 2012
11:02 am
My personnal opinion. I use to like turner when he first came here. He ran harder and hit the hole harder. It seems like the last couple of seasons Turner has been running the ball as if he is scared to get hit or hit somebody. Turner is 240 plus pounds and I have never seen him try to run somebody. I have seen Rogers try and he is the smallest guy on the field. I am no longer a fan of turner. He is to stiff, slow and he needs to loose about 15 to 20 pounds to be effective again. I think a slimmer turner would be better suited for the team and him. I would rather see snelling get a shot at the starting tailback position for a lot less money. I also think that we need to persue a tightend. A more atheletic tightend. I like gonzalez but he is also stiff and slow. If Green Bay decides to release or cut their tie with Jermichael Finely I would love to have him on our team
Birdman of Alcahol
January 19th, 2012
11:03 am
Does anyone think Alex Smith is more talented than Matt Ryan? Not on your life. He’s in the championship now. Build a line around him, create a scheme to maximize the talents and you will feel differently about Ryan. He is not a Brees or Rodgers, but he can win a Superbowl in the right scheme.
Angelo
January 19th, 2012
11:03 am
Falcons’ question No. 1: Should Matt Ryan be kept?
Cornell Sims
January 19th, 2012
11:03 am
Another thing. If turner hit the holes faster and harder he would have had 1600 yards every year.
Raines
January 19th, 2012
11:05 am
I like Turner, but we need a more mult-dimensial back like a Marshawn Lynch type. Too easy to identify what the Falcons will do when Turner is in the game. Snelling does nothing but produce when given the opportunity. We need to sacrifice Turner for the money to upgrade the D-line and O-Line. Use Snelling, Rodgers, Smith and draft pick or free agent to make up the carries. If you have a good O-line any NFL back of any substance can make yardage. We need a huge upgrade at DT to push the pocket.
Ryan ain't the problem
January 19th, 2012
11:05 am
I agree with Birdman. Those who are ridiculing Ryan have no football sense. Give the man time. The playoff wins will come.
Rambo
January 19th, 2012
11:06 am
I think that Turner leaves yards on the field, so to speak. He can’t make anyone miss and can’t change directions. He’s like a steering a battleship. I would rather see Snelling get more carries. He’s as big and is shiftier than Turner and a better receiver. As a Northern Illinois grad, I love Turner, but I think we could get more yards out of another back.
FalconsFan4Life
January 19th, 2012
11:06 am
Turner has been serviceable and good… Even FLASHES of greatness… My opinion is that YES, we need to trade Turner while he STILL has NFL “value”… However, what does it matter… Dimitroff and Smith haven’t made many SOUND and RATIONAL decisions, and they don’t listen to us anyway… I’m sure they’ll keep Turner because he’s a slower, older, tip-toe-ier version of Maurice Jones-Drew… I just want to win… Do they??? Sometimes I wonder… Mike Nolan will be interim head coach by the end of next season… I love my Falcons, but it’s hard to even believe or rise up or whatever kind of stupid marketing slogan they use next year to motivate us fans… MOTIVATE the team to win a playoff game! Here’s a slogan… “PROTECT YOUR QUARTERBACK and MAKE A RUNNING LANE for your RUNNING BACK!!!!”
No Way Norway
January 19th, 2012
11:07 am
Turner loves running up the backs of his OL or so it seems. The few times he runs outside he gets 20 yards…
Larry
January 19th, 2012
11:07 am
Mr. Schultz,
Aimed specifically at trolls like “CHOKE,” perhaps you’ll consider this No Trolling Policy:
“No trolling. Posts intended solely to annoy and/or offend other posters by going against the clear nature of a board or topic are not allowed. This includes, but is not limited to: Provoking other users to respond with flames, Provoking fans of a particular team or group, Making misleading topic titles and asking obviously useless questions.”
As for the topic at hand, only at the right price as we need to pour every available dollar at first, the OL, and 2nd, the D-Line, and 3rd, a Free Safety. All the great teams have a good OL, a good, DL a good Safety and a good QB as their foundation. We have just one of the four basic necessities…a good, solid QB.
Matt Ryan will do wonders with enough time and a better scheme!
Birdman of Alcahol
January 19th, 2012
11:08 am
Not even a question on Ryan. You see how hard it is to find a quarterback in this league, you get someone you can win with, you keep him even if he isnt the best in the league. Does not mean you can’t draft his replacement in a year, but no way you dump him and start over without a high first round pick to work with. This team needs tweaks people. A couple 4th down conversions this year and its a totally different season. You dont blow up the whole team for a couple failed conversions. The changes made to staff and the subsequent scheme changes should move us forward, of course with some personnel changes but not wholesale.
Big Un
January 19th, 2012
11:08 am
Matt Ryan overated and at stand still …hey, there are plenty of tickets available for the Panthers and Cam “I want to be a Icon” Newton games
Tom 4 A
January 19th, 2012
11:08 am
I hope that I am not duplicating anyone, but I would not shed a tear if Turner left. Yes, the man can boost his stats when it doesn’t count, but if you need 6 inches for a first, he acts as if he has never seen a football! He showed us this “ut-oh, which way should I go now” move 4 times this year in critical situations and failed miserably each time. That is not what a $5mil RB does. I’ll take the cap space and take my chances…
Fidlin1
January 19th, 2012
11:09 am
Yeah he shows some wear, but damn, he’s wearing down the defense to a nub trying to bring him down. He gives 100% , why not give him the same support?
No Way Norway
January 19th, 2012
11:10 am
Cam Newton in one year is a better qb than Matt Ryan. Sad.
C from Marietta
January 19th, 2012
11:10 am
LOL. What a lazy piece of crap article.
Statick
January 19th, 2012
11:11 am
I like Turner, but I would definitely consider loosing him in order to save money and put it towards the o-line.
No Way Norway
January 19th, 2012
11:12 am
I’d love to have RB Steven Jackson (Rams). He gets 100 yards on a team that only has him and nobody else (since Bradford’s injury).
Big Un
January 19th, 2012
11:13 am
Dang, the DA Barners are invading us
sam
January 19th, 2012
11:13 am
I say keep Turner another year and see what the new OC does with him. I think in a more limited role with a more open offense he will do better. I’m thinking draw plays here. He’s definately slowed down hitting the hole on conventional runs, but give him a head of steam and he lowers the IQ of those trying to tackle him!
No Way Norway
January 19th, 2012
11:13 am
I remember when Turner went down a few years back and Snelling had like 175 yards and 2 tds in his first start !
FalconsFan4Life
January 19th, 2012
11:14 am
Falcons will be better IF and only IF the OFFENSIVE LINE gets better and NASTIER! We showed glimpses of this last year before we let HARVEY DAHL leave! Man, I loved his motor and attitude… McClure is very LONG in the tooth… We’ve always been LIGHT IN THE BOOTY on our O-LINE so we’ve never really be a good O-LINE like the Patriots, Green Bay, New Orleans, etc…
Ryan and Turner WILL benefit with a better O-LINE scheme and overall offensive playbook/scheme… Don’t see how our new Offensive Coordinate has the EXPERIENCE to better those categories in which the Falcons lack… But again, what do WE know? We’re just fans with passion… I still stay the OC hire makes NO SENSE, but I will have to do nothing but wait and see! I truly hope I’m wrong and Koetter turns out to be an offensive GENIUS… I mean we can do no worse than 32nd in offense like Jacksonville did, right? LOL! Have to laugh to keep from crying! FINGERS ARE CROSSED that I’M WRONG about him!!!!
Najeh Davenpoop
January 19th, 2012
11:15 am
You can get by without a workhorse running back if you have an elite passing game. If the Falcons intend to transition to being a completely pass-first team, it probably makes sense to cut Turner and build the running game around Rodgers and Snelling, who are better receivers. But I’m not entirely convinced they can pull that off, especially since they struggled this year when they threw the ball more. Transitioning to pass-first would be a pretty dramatic change from the ball-control, time of possession team they have been throughout Mike Smith’s tenure.