Falcons’ question No. 1: Should Michael Turner be kept? (UPDATED)
The Falcons may need to sacrifice running back Michael Turner to fill other needs. (AP photo)
(UPDATED)
(This is the first in a series of blogs in which I’ll focus on some high-profile Falcons’ veterans and their respective uncertain future with the team.)
The Falcons need some fixes. They’re not a wreck. (Wrecks don’t make the playoffs in three out of four seasons.) But they have problems — offensive line, secondary and defensive line, for starters. They may need to fill holes during free agency, and that means they’ll need to create salary space. Some players will have to go.
Which brings me to Michael Turner.
This should not be taken as the start of a “Dump Michael Turner” movement. The guy finished third in the NFL in rushing with 1,340 yards. But the question of whether to keep him, cut him or trade him (if possible) for a mid-round draft pick is a legitimate one.
Because the Falcons don’t have first- or fourth-round picks this year (see: Julio Jones trade), they will have to plug more holes in free agency. That will mean salary-cap space. Turner is scheduled to make $5 million in salary next season, but has a cap hit of $7.5 million (factoring $2.5 million for his original signing bonus). He turns 30 years old next month. He has 1,189 carries in the past four seasons, which would wear down even a younger guy. (Technically, Turner is an eight-year back, but he had only 228 carries in his first four seasons in San Diego.)
At the very least, Turner is headed for a reduced role next season, as the Falcons want to give more touches to Jacquizz Rodgers, particularly in the screen game. Not integrating Rodgers into the offense was one of former offensive coordinator Mike Mularkey’s failings.
Understand something: The NFL has changed a lot over the past five years. It’s a pass-driven league now, and marquee running backs are not in great demand. Several teams, including New Orleans and Green Bay, now have gone the running back-by-committee route. If the Falcons made the decision to part with Turner, that committee would include Rodgers, Jason Snelling (a free agent) and Antone Smith, unless another back is drafted or signed in free agency.
Despite his production this season, Turner showed signs of wear. He had rushed for over 100 yards once in a span of eight games until gaining 172 in the regular season-ending blowout against Tampa Bay, a team that had clearly quit. The accompanying chart illustrates how his monthly average yards per carry dropped from 5.57 in September to 3.38 in December. His average yards per game (78.8) also was the lowest of his four seasons in Atlanta.
Does this mean Turner is toast? No. He can still be productive. He ran behind a weak line. He played with a lingering groin strain. But the Falcons’ line isn’t going to suddenly morph into the Hogs up front, and injuries are common with older running backs. The move from Mularkey to new offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter was made with an expansion of the passing attack in mind.
So should Turner be sacrificed? There’s no absolute right or wrong answer. But if the Falcons truly want to fix their holes on the offensive and defensive lines — and this game is still about blocking and tackling — cutting or dealing Turner may be necessary.
The thought of saying goodbye to a 1,340-yard rusher may seem like a strange one, but it’s a new league — and the Falcons need the money.
•
Below is a chart showing Turner’s yards per carry and average yards per game by month in each of his four seasons. Remember too that the final game this season brought up his final 2011 averages.
YEAR SEPT. OCT. NOV. DEC. JAN. TYPC TYPG
• 2008 (YPC) 5.48 3.43 4.04 5.22 -- 4.5 106.2
(YPG) 105.5 77.7 110.6 122.8 --
• 2009 (YPC) 3.48 3.34 7.81 7.0* -- 4.9 79.2
(YPG) 75.3 59.0 115.3 7.0 --
• 2010 (YPC) 3.98 4.88 4.21 3.51 3.94 4.1 85.7
(YPG) 77.0 89.0 96.8 82.5 67.0
• 2011 (YPC) 5.57 4.03 4.04 3.38 10.12 4.5 78.8
(YPG) 78.0 96.8 81.8 55.0 17 (*Turner played only 11 games in 2009 because of injuries, including 1 carry in December.)
•
And now, the floor is yours.
By Jeff Schultz
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697 comments Add your comment
AlpharettaGuy
January 19th, 2012
9:45 am
If you improve the O line, ANY RB is gonna be better. Let Turner go–he’s a bit chunky & past his prime, get some line help. If Antone Smith gets a shot, he will turn heads. Pair him w/ a vet, use Snelling & you have a good RB group. Saints’ Chris Ivory was a nobody till he got a shot. I think A Smith has some talent. A Smith, are you there? U read this stuff? I’m giving u props, man!
Big Daddy
January 19th, 2012
9:45 am
I think we need to look at the overall effect of a running back like Turner. True, his primary job is running the ball, but he is also involved in protecting Ryan by pass blocking. He is pretty good at doing that. I don’t know that Rogers would be as good if he was our featured back. If Snelling was that good, they would have already traded Turner for someone else. He has filled in well for Turner when he was hurt, but they did not leave him as the starter when Turner was healthy again.
I just don’t want to get back to the era like when we had Warrick Dunn as our featured back. He was a decent runner but his pass blocking consisted of diving at the feet of the blitzing linebackers and safeties. Brian Urlacher jump over him once and almost knocked the number off of Vick on a blitz. We have to look at the overall effect of having someone Turner’s size, speed and running ability.
Whatever we do, we have to shore up the offensive line to protect the quarterback, replace Peria Jerry on the defensive line and come up with some serious schemes for the secondary. If managment believes that Burner’s salary is keeping us from getting good people on the line, they have to make the call. Just let’s not be shortsighted.
Me Too
January 19th, 2012
9:46 am
JB maybe your comment was off topic is the problem. The article was clearly Michael Turner.
JB
January 19th, 2012
9:47 am
AlpharettaGuy…..Agree about the OL. And it’s true with UGA….If Murray had a OL and a running game, He would be unreal.
ole richie
January 19th, 2012
9:47 am
if the falcons wanted MJD, they should have drafted him in 06 instead of jimmy williams. If we get MJD, don’t expect to have a draft this year, or next.
Sargent Carter
January 19th, 2012
9:48 am
Actually, Arthur, just make Smitty your greeter in the falcons sweet(you are going to can him next season anyway), tell his offensive coach hire it was a big mistake and hire some real coaches
Anon1
January 19th, 2012
9:48 am
Maybe Robinson was in NO too, that’s why he was so worthless in the Miami SB.
JB
January 19th, 2012
9:48 am
Me Too……………Probably right.
elephanthead
January 19th, 2012
9:48 am
I would wish him well and send him on his way – his best days are behind him. The problem is that he is way too slow getting from his stance to the line and he doesnt catch the ball well either. He would be OK if you had a high quality O-line that can sustain blocks for the extra 2 seconds that are required for him to get rolling, but thats not in the cards here. Dont be deceived by stats – some of those yards are meaningless. One long run in the Chicago game put him at 100 for the game, but the game was already way over by then. I prefer to judge players by what I see game to game, and he has had far to many carries in the range -2 yards to +2 yards. Put the emphasis on the O-line and you can find productive RBs low in the draft.
GTT
January 19th, 2012
9:49 am
Speaking of Ovie, isn’t he the highest-paid FB in the league by far? Good guy, good player, but is that the best use of dollars? Just asking.
Say what
January 19th, 2012
9:52 am
Doesn’t matter what I think, but here goes: I think it was criminal the way the CS let Turner dominate the rushing offense when we had two other very capable and more versatile backs (possibly three, don’t know anything about Smith) who gave more effort every time they got their rare chance. I don’t know the ins and outs of the business side, the money available, the value for a trade, but I do know that Turner had become a big part of our one-dimensional, predictable, boring offense, and that definitely needs to change.
Me Too
January 19th, 2012
9:54 am
GTT it is the worst use of dollars.
Birdman of Alcahol
January 19th, 2012
9:54 am
the question is who is more responsible for the 1300 yards from Turner? Ovie or Turner himself? Would Snelling also get 1300 yards running behind this line and Ovie? I believe yes. Would Snelling or any back get 1300 yards with this line and without the best FB in the league? I think no. I believe if Ovie is on the field we dont try and sneak the unathletic Ryan twice and not make it.
AlpharettaGuy
January 19th, 2012
9:56 am
I just remember Smith in preseason & he had energy & moves. Sometimes a guy just needs a shot. Antone, you hear me? Work hard, son, your time is coming…
Put Smith w/ a vet & throw Snelling in the mix & you have a nice RB committee, which is a better approach than the feature back.
Me Too
January 19th, 2012
9:58 am
Michael Turner was Mr. One Dimensional. We need a team on offense instead of the coaching staff trying to prove to “who knows who” that one running back on offense can run the rock. Look, we had not running game although MT gained over 1000 yards.
Birdman of Alcahol
January 19th, 2012
9:59 am
Sign Carl Nicks to play right guard and watch how the running game changes. Regardless of who carries the ball it will be better.
Say what
January 19th, 2012
9:59 am
Also, Rodgers is a good pass blocker and receiver. Think he will be a great player for us, given the chance.
Gumbo
January 19th, 2012
9:59 am
Watch the New Orleans backs and how hard (and quickly) they hit the hole. Then watching Turner (aka “The Dancing Bear”). Nuff said.
Me Too
January 19th, 2012
10:00 am
When Ovie is on the field, it TELLS the defense a run is coming up. The Falcons need to get away from the PREDICTABLE formations.
Jarrett
January 19th, 2012
10:03 am
@ Me Too. We didn’t always run with Ovie on the field. He usually has 1 or 2 TD’s because we would pass to him at the goal line. I think he is a great fullback who has done nothing but good things for us. The Fullback never gets enough credit they deserve.
AlpharettaGuy
January 19th, 2012
10:03 am
Antone! Give him the ball! If Turner can add 20 lbs (can’t be too hard, just more buffets) he can be a good prospect for OL. All u need to do is change his jersey number.
I’m serious about Antone, tho. Chris Ivory never got a shot & now look. It’ll be the same w/ Antone. Anybody remember a Falcons 3rd string QB who didn’t get a shot named Favre? (Of course he was ‘party Favre’ at the the time.) Antone! U heard it first here.
Birdman of Alcahol
January 19th, 2012
10:04 am
4 receiver sets tells the defense you are throwing the ball. Just because everyone knows what you plan to do does not mean you can’t get it done with the right personnel.
Jarrett
January 19th, 2012
10:05 am
AlpharettaGuy. Is A Smith your friend or something. You are pushing the guy hard. He always seemed just above average to me.
Chip
January 19th, 2012
10:05 am
I believe that we should trade MT. The draft picks are needed and we can attempt to patch up the O-line. I think that MT would be a great pick up for the Jets.. Rex Ryan would like his running style and Shone Greene gets injured too often.
AlpharettaGuy
January 19th, 2012
10:07 am
Just having a little fun…I don’t know him but I do remember good things in preseason & I don’t think anyone has seen enough to make a judgement (as was case w/ Ivory)
Jarrett
January 19th, 2012
10:08 am
I hear ya. I wish he was the next coming of Barry Sanders but I doubt he’ll get the shot with us. He would still be the 3rd string if Turner is gone.
BillyBob
January 19th, 2012
10:08 am
As someone mentioned Turner gets the two or three big gains when the game is meaningless. But what sticks in your head as a fan are the many times you see him stopped dead at the line on an important down. Most fans appreciate what he “has” done but as we know in the nfl it is what have you done for me lately? Not much as far as I remember.
Bill Clinton
January 19th, 2012
10:09 am
MT has lost his burst. Tries to juke at the line instead of taking his 3. Still is effective, but they need to renegotiate his deal due to his reduced role.
Jarrett
January 19th, 2012
10:10 am
@BillyBob…True That.
duronimo
January 19th, 2012
10:15 am
The problem has been that the OC incrementally moves to the pass as the year proceeds. That gets worse in the playoffs. There are no screens to take some of the heat off Turner and the line. Nothing to slow down the rush. Then there is the question of the quality and toughness of the O line.
Turner is actually pretty quick to the hole when there is one. That’s why he gets his share of medium to long gains. The idea that we will win with Ryan’s arm is an odd assessment from what should be professionals. Sitting at home the difference between him, Brees, Stafford and Rogers is clear.
no excuses
January 19th, 2012
10:15 am
Keep him, but get someone else with SPEED to compliment him. If we had both power and speed in the backfield at the same time, defenses would have to guess which one is coming at them.
duronimo
January 19th, 2012
10:19 am
If they would mix a few screens in we wouldn’t be talking about this. It’s the entire reason for so many tackles for losses. Screens will stop the bull rushes, take pressure of the O line, and allow them to create better running lanes. Turner is still quick to the hole when there is one.
vesaversa
January 19th, 2012
10:19 am
If this is not a dump Turner campaign why are we discussing him. Turner is not the problem the front OF line is .
Mr. Mustard
January 19th, 2012
10:20 am
It depends on who you replace him with. Snelling is not a starter, he is a decent back up with good hands and plays hard. Does not have the footwork or burst of speed.
Rodgers is the real question, because he has shown real potential in every phase.
Keep Turner, for one year, reduce his carries, include Rodgers and Snelling, and assume the new passing scheme will help everybody.
But above all else – focus on the line(s).
Falconoid
January 19th, 2012
10:21 am
Trade Turner to the Colts for their second round choice (which really is the last first rounder)
and maybe a sixth or seventh. Whether the Colts have Luck or Manning, they need to establish
a running game and Grigson watched Turner’s long run against the Eagles this year. Get something
for him from an AFC team who needs ten short runs and five longish runs. Draft OL with the Indy
pick, a solid runner ala Wilson with our allotted number two, and move on. If Abraham and Grimes
leave via FA, then we’ll get comp picks in 3rd and 4th to keep repopulating both lines.
mitch (the one in Rom)
January 19th, 2012
10:23 am
It’s hard to average a lot of yard per carry when the other team’s d line is in the backfield off the snap. Not sure its MT’s fault. Seems to be he has not seen much blocking to his benefit. His yard have been his effort.
There have been games when the line play was awful.
D man
January 19th, 2012
10:26 am
Yes, we don’t have anyone else that can be as productive.
Moultrie Packer
January 19th, 2012
10:26 am
Turner is sssslllllllooooooooowwwwwww!!!!!!
Let him go. Get another back that is younger and quicker.
monty
January 19th, 2012
10:27 am
Turner is fine if you have a lead and are milking the clock. He is basicly of no use if you are behind against a good defense. As others have said, he lacks speed getting to the outside, or the momentary opened hole in the middle, he doesn’t break tackles unless he’s running full speed down field, and he doesn’t catch the ball well. He reminds me of a guy that needed to play for the old Washington Redskins with their Hogs blocking for him. You certainly don’t want to rely on him and our pourous O-line with a 3rd or 4th and 1, which is sad because with his body type that is exactly why you should have him. William Andrews was a much smaller back but ran with a vengeance. Not so much with Turner.
D man
January 19th, 2012
10:28 am
Mike doesn’t fumble and when you give him a hole he is very productive. Fix the O-line and you increase productivity in the running and passing game. Problem solved, next discussion???
Jarrett
January 19th, 2012
10:29 am
Falconoid. I disagree with what you say. First off we would never get that high of a pick for Turner. I would say middle 3rd at best. If we somehow did get that pick and picked a RB I would be pissed. If we go after offense again and neglect out Defense we will be in the same boat again next season. The only way I would agree to offense would be an OL. If Grimes leaves we have much bigger problems to fill in the secondary. Our best DB would be a Nickel at best (D Robinson).
Reality
January 19th, 2012
10:29 am
lacks mobility, can’t make the corner, over weight….let him go now.
True Falcon
January 19th, 2012
10:30 am
Cut Turner and Ryan. There’s some salary room. Use the draft or free agency to get a QB with some guts!
JeanE
January 19th, 2012
10:31 am
I would dump him. I appreciate what he’s done for ATL but he is, to me, visibly slowing down and we have too many other needs. Honestly, I’m fine with RB by committee. Spread it around, I think Snelling is very versatile and am looking forward to the screen game coming to ATL! I know none of these guys are Roger Craig but there’s so many possilibities unexplored by Mularkey. Still don’t know whether that we by his choice of Smitty’s.
DDPO
January 19th, 2012
10:31 am
Why is there always some UGA homer who thinks drafting/signing a few UGA players will make all of the difference?
Chuck
January 19th, 2012
10:31 am
He goes down SO EASILY for a guy of his size; the first guy to put a pinkie below his knee gets the tackle.
GTBob
January 19th, 2012
10:31 am
Turner is a good RB and we wouldn’t have very many options in replacing him right now. Personally, I think getting rid of him would be a mistake at this point. If you want to get Rodgers and Snelling more involved, that’s great, but neither one of them are #1 back material. You can bring in a free agent also but who can we get that would be a significant upgrade to Turner?
Jarrett
January 19th, 2012
10:32 am
There it goes again. Matt Ryan is not the problem. You people drive me crazy.
Zoomie
January 19th, 2012
10:32 am
If he can be used creatively in DK’s offense, then keep him. If bringing him into the backfield telegraphs a run between the tackles, as it does now, is the best DK can do, then he needs to go.
Turner is not quick (holes close before he can get to them), and has no cutting ability. He is easy to defend. If DK can find ways to get him the ball that will take advantage of his single attribute (very difficult to tackle once he’s built up a head of steam), then he should have a spot on the team.
I think he’s too one-dimensional. Without a dominating offensive line, he’s just too much of a liability.
A.S.
January 19th, 2012
10:32 am
A few things,
At $5 million he’s worth it. Rodgers isn’t going to be an elite RB in the NFL. He will become a weapon on screen passes. Snelling didn’t impress me last year. We need to look for a young RB possibly in the 2nd or 3rd round that will be able to replace Turner in a couple of years. We have other needs beside a RB. Did you watch our OL or DL?