Falcons’ question No. 1: Should Michael Turner be kept? (UPDATED)
The Falcons may need to sacrifice running back Michael Turner to fill other needs. (AP photo)
(UPDATED)
(This is the first in a series of blogs in which I’ll focus on some high-profile Falcons’ veterans and their respective uncertain future with the team.)
The Falcons need some fixes. They’re not a wreck. (Wrecks don’t make the playoffs in three out of four seasons.) But they have problems — offensive line, secondary and defensive line, for starters. They may need to fill holes during free agency, and that means they’ll need to create salary space. Some players will have to go.
Which brings me to Michael Turner.
This should not be taken as the start of a “Dump Michael Turner” movement. The guy finished third in the NFL in rushing with 1,340 yards. But the question of whether to keep him, cut him or trade him (if possible) for a mid-round draft pick is a legitimate one.
Because the Falcons don’t have first- or fourth-round picks this year (see: Julio Jones trade), they will have to plug more holes in free agency. That will mean salary-cap space. Turner is scheduled to make $5 million in salary next season, but has a cap hit of $7.5 million (factoring $2.5 million for his original signing bonus). He turns 30 years old next month. He has 1,189 carries in the past four seasons, which would wear down even a younger guy. (Technically, Turner is an eight-year back, but he had only 228 carries in his first four seasons in San Diego.)
At the very least, Turner is headed for a reduced role next season, as the Falcons want to give more touches to Jacquizz Rodgers, particularly in the screen game. Not integrating Rodgers into the offense was one of former offensive coordinator Mike Mularkey’s failings.
Understand something: The NFL has changed a lot over the past five years. It’s a pass-driven league now, and marquee running backs are not in great demand. Several teams, including New Orleans and Green Bay, now have gone the running back-by-committee route. If the Falcons made the decision to part with Turner, that committee would include Rodgers, Jason Snelling (a free agent) and Antone Smith, unless another back is drafted or signed in free agency.
Despite his production this season, Turner showed signs of wear. He had rushed for over 100 yards once in a span of eight games until gaining 172 in the regular season-ending blowout against Tampa Bay, a team that had clearly quit. The accompanying chart illustrates how his monthly average yards per carry dropped from 5.57 in September to 3.38 in December. His average yards per game (78.8) also was the lowest of his four seasons in Atlanta.
Does this mean Turner is toast? No. He can still be productive. He ran behind a weak line. He played with a lingering groin strain. But the Falcons’ line isn’t going to suddenly morph into the Hogs up front, and injuries are common with older running backs. The move from Mularkey to new offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter was made with an expansion of the passing attack in mind.
So should Turner be sacrificed? There’s no absolute right or wrong answer. But if the Falcons truly want to fix their holes on the offensive and defensive lines — and this game is still about blocking and tackling — cutting or dealing Turner may be necessary.
The thought of saying goodbye to a 1,340-yard rusher may seem like a strange one, but it’s a new league — and the Falcons need the money.
•
Below is a chart showing Turner’s yards per carry and average yards per game by month in each of his four seasons. Remember too that the final game this season brought up his final 2011 averages.
YEAR SEPT. OCT. NOV. DEC. JAN. TYPC TYPG
• 2008 (YPC) 5.48 3.43 4.04 5.22 -- 4.5 106.2
(YPG) 105.5 77.7 110.6 122.8 --
• 2009 (YPC) 3.48 3.34 7.81 7.0* -- 4.9 79.2
(YPG) 75.3 59.0 115.3 7.0 --
• 2010 (YPC) 3.98 4.88 4.21 3.51 3.94 4.1 85.7
(YPG) 77.0 89.0 96.8 82.5 67.0
• 2011 (YPC) 5.57 4.03 4.04 3.38 10.12 4.5 78.8
(YPG) 78.0 96.8 81.8 55.0 17 (*Turner played only 11 games in 2009 because of injuries, including 1 carry in December.)
•
And now, the floor is yours.
By Jeff Schultz
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697 comments Add your comment
Interested Fan
January 21st, 2012
11:19 am
Keep Turner, rebuild the offensive line and dump Mike Smith. Here’s where the problem lies. Smith has proven several times this year that he makes critical decisions based on emotions. He appears disconnected with the flow of the game. He has missed opportunities to put points on the board and keep the momentum flowing our way. Thus, creating a major shift in the game and a confidence booster for the opposition. Also, showing disrespect to quality defenses only incites both their defenses and offensives units.
Fats O Kelley
January 21st, 2012
12:16 pm
KEEP HIM. The guy is a fighter and the problem was everybody knew when he was running ,the way the plays were set up. He proved he can ramble for yards and he PUNISHES db’s something fierce.
Fats O Kelley
January 21st, 2012
12:21 pm
I M not sure,though if qb “Howdy Doody “Ryan has what it takes to even win one playoff game. i GIVE HIM ONE MORE YEAR AND TURNER TOO.
zorro
January 21st, 2012
12:54 pm
With the new coaches we look for new things to happen. Let us as fans see if the OC and the DC see this as an opportunity after watching film. Can they put a buyable package on the field without losing a running back like MT because if we ask to have him cut and new Orleans pick him up, then we’ll have hell to pay for a long time. Then we look at Cam newton and josh freeman these guys want to win. Fourth and nothing” come on man” if you really want something you go for it. That is not what I saw in this 72M QB, this Blog is talking about getting rid of our power back, makes me think that you are really the Germinal in the fan base. Cut’s and salary caps, see yal don’t want to talk about that. we can get a whole lot more for a QB for what this front office needs in order to keep butts in the set’s. And Right now in green Bay sits a diamond in the rough. Now let’s have that talk about getting to the Big Dance. So who do you cut? I say start with looking at film and you will see something that jumps out at you in the form of NO Assurance,Courage or Boldness at QB smoke and mirrors and that’s not working so good. Look people it’s the O LINE if you don’t get that fix then anybody can be cut.
Matt "CHOKE" Ryan
January 21st, 2012
3:48 pm
Jim Mora took this team with just Mike Vick & Crumpler.
What has the Falcants done with all the talent on this team?
FIRE Smitty
FIRE Dimitroff
CUT CHOKE
Turner would be a lock for the pro bowl each year if he had a qb that could stretch the field and not get up to the line of scrimmage trying to run a no huddle like Peyton…………..
HA HA HA
Stinger
January 21st, 2012
5:12 pm
Easy…NO. Takes too long to get to full speed. Now when he gets to top speed…the guy can run. But the answer is an easy one for me…..NO
LKW4
January 21st, 2012
5:56 pm
CUT HIM!! He lost the last three games for us because he couldn’t make one yard. As soon as someone looks at him he falls down. He tries to run with his eyes shut. If they don’t open a hole for him big enough for an elephant to walk through he lays down. He never looks for an alternate route if the one selected won’t work. My 12 year old grandson can play better then Lard A$$. He wasn’t worth the money Falcons paid for him. Seems as though all these guys we get on our team perform the 1st year and then lay down after they got paid. They need to cut all these prima donas checks and pay per performance. Love to have the Mean Joe Greens, OJ’s (before murder), Refrigerator Perry’s back. That was FootBall!
Jermaine
January 21st, 2012
6:06 pm
Good, not great, back. Has a relatively slow first step (big load) and shouldn’t be used for 4th down.
Jeff
January 21st, 2012
6:07 pm
Keep. Need his power for short yardage which was a killer for the falcons.
BigGAdawg
January 21st, 2012
6:15 pm
I would only want to trade him if it meant getting Trent Richardson as the pick we traded for.
DERRICK
January 21st, 2012
6:20 pm
TRADE TURNER AND MIKE SMITH ON THE SAME DAY AND SMACK THE PISS OUT OF THE GM.
DERRICK
January 21st, 2012
6:23 pm
GET A REAL COACH MR.BLANK.
DERRICK
January 21st, 2012
6:26 pm
I LOVE THE FALCONS I WANT TO BE FAN AGAIN (JUST KIDDING)
torry
January 21st, 2012
6:45 pm
Is it me or is any one else watching these games..of course we need another running back…Turner isnt explosive and I refuse to call anyone who has a 10 yard lead on deffenders and if constantly getting run down BURNER…Snelling always comes into the game and gets positive yardage..need to go out and get an explosive younger back and a tight end that can stretch the field more like a jimmy graham
Robert
January 21st, 2012
6:46 pm
Turner has probably seen his last season as a near-elite NFL back. My qestion is this. Why did the Falcons let Boby Cox coach the offense in that playoff game against the Giants?
Preacherskid
January 21st, 2012
7:01 pm
Depends on what’s being offered. If you can get a 1st rd pick for him I say trade him while he’s hot. Perhaps you can get a free agent pick up.
Arthur's $800 Million Stadium
January 21st, 2012
7:19 pm
Arthur’s going to be demanding a state of the art, open air stadium soon–paid for by atlanta / georgia taxpayers. He wants to make a lot more money than he’s making now with more pricey corporate suites, advertising, higher ticket prices, food sales…. Get ready to pay up, chumps!
Tom G
January 21st, 2012
8:35 pm
testing
Clean House!
January 21st, 2012
9:07 pm
the falcons need to revamp their entire O—the Oline is terrible, the QB is average and julio jones and white are good but not great. But, the brilliant dimitroff traded away all their picks. More of the same mediocrity in 2012—book it.
keith
January 21st, 2012
9:54 pm
The Brees led offense averaged apprx 470 yards per game and lost. Rodgers was all world and lost. We don’t need all those yards. Mularkey often appeared to be very predictable. At times they looked very confused. We need a gameplan that fits a talented team.
AlpharettaGuy
January 21st, 2012
9:58 pm
football nut–no, i’m not nuts, you are (football ‘nut’, right?
) and i’ve been in atl since ‘84. Ryan is a good QB, better than average & it’s great that he gets the team to the post season, you are right about that. What I’m saying is that he is going to have to get better in the post season if the team is going to progress. He plays the most important position on the team–period. Look at him in Giants game–sliding down short of first down, no one touching him with time running out in first half? Not able to adjust to pressure to make a play? The offense was bad & so was he. It could be post season pressure, I dunno, but it’s not that he’s losing post season games it’s HOW he’s losing (unlike some of the others u mentioned). Anyway, I like him a lot & hope he makes the adjustments he needs to make but if he doesn’t, the team won’t move ahead in post season, assuming they continue to get there.
FalconFreak
January 21st, 2012
10:40 pm
Maybe they need to structure his contract to motivate him to stay in shape. He seems to be overweight. If not, maybe the grind is wearing him down. He’s been a great Falcon so maybe he will take less of a role but he can still run….1000+ yards…not shabby.
blane f.
January 22nd, 2012
12:03 am
turner has been a good player and seems like a good guy,but the nfl is a business & the the falcons need to move on. rodgers & snelling can handle the running back position and both can catch the ball out of the backfield. the money they would pay turner needs to be used to address other areas of need,such as offensive line and numerous issues on defense. turner may be a good fit for the dolphins since they have reggie bush and may end up with matt flynn at qb.
Sam
January 22nd, 2012
9:54 am
I would love the Falcons trying to pursue Jonathan Dwyer, former GT running back from the Steelers. He is bigger, faster, and much cheaper than Turner. He has run the ball well in limited playing time with Pittsburg and could be the answer for the Falcons at RB.
Matt "CHOKE" Ryan
January 22nd, 2012
2:25 pm
Another season, another deep into the playoff trip for Flacco…………..
CHOKE are you watching how it’s done?
HA HA HA
Clean it
January 22nd, 2012
4:04 pm
dump turner and the entire oline—over the hill, overpaid.
Matt "CHOKE" Ryan
January 22nd, 2012
4:51 pm
Man, my new baby Flacco be playin soooo good. I love that village people facial hair. I want to kiss that boy ALL over. He has big hands and feet. So sweet, love that meat.
Matt "CHOKE" Ryan
January 22nd, 2012
4:53 pm
I be thankin that Tom Brady be sweet too! I want both them tall boys in my tub.
Matt "CHOKE" Ryan
January 22nd, 2012
4:54 pm
I would love an Eli/Alex sandwich anytime. I’ll spread the mayo.
Matt "CHOKE" Ryan
January 22nd, 2012
4:56 pm
When I thank about it, Matty Ice is soooo fine. He look like he should be in G Q. I change my mind. I want a slice of Matty Ice.
Matt "CHOKE" Ryan
January 22nd, 2012
5:24 pm
Falcants fans say it with me…..
Should have drafted Flacco
HA HA HA
Matt "CHOKE" Ryan
January 22nd, 2012
5:27 pm
OH LORDY, I BE GOTS THE VAPORS. ALL THEM TALL WHITE BOY Q B’S IS GIVIN ME THE CHILLS
Matt "CHOKE" Ryan
January 22nd, 2012
5:30 pm
My Man Love for Flacco is swellin up like a big ol fat hot dog
Matt "CHOKE" Ryan
January 22nd, 2012
5:35 pm
If I can’t have my baby Vick, I wants me some Joe Flacco bouncy bounce in the shoot.
yo Vince
January 22nd, 2012
5:37 pm
WOW CHOKE, you are so in to those Q B’s. Kinda weird.
yo Vince
January 22nd, 2012
5:58 pm
I don’t think anyone knew you wanted all that action up in yo guts CHOKE !!!!!!!!!!
Matt "CHOKE" Ryan
January 22nd, 2012
6:25 pm
O K…Ha Ha Ha… I be sooo mad. My sweet baby Flacco CHOKED again, after the #3 defense gave him the game on asilver platter for the 4th time. Ha Ha Ha…. My new sweeeeet baby man love boy friend be Tom, ohhhhhhhhh sooooo sweeeet, Brady. I want to have his baby. Ha Ha Ha. Smiley face… Ha Ha Ha…
Matt "CHOKE" Ryan
January 22nd, 2012
7:07 pm
I am now dreamin bout Alex though.
Matt "CHOKE" Ryan
January 22nd, 2012
7:25 pm
dis is what happend. 10 years ago, my girlfriend caught me with a MV7 Centerfold and a quart of baby oil. She left, and errrr since, I be lovin soom long Q B’s
Waffle House or Bust
January 23rd, 2012
12:59 am
Why do we always blame the star black players in Atlanta? I say dump Ryan and bring someone in here with swagger not afraid to take a hit. (I’m a white guy by the way.)
Matt "CHOKE" Ryan
January 23rd, 2012
8:38 am
WF or Bust
Who’s talkin about black guys idiot?
Nerehere
January 23rd, 2012
10:32 am
Get rid of Turner. Since when have the Falcons in their history fell in love so much with a running back that it doomed them to let one go? Look at TJ Duckett, Jamal Anderson. Jamal was our best.
Atl130
January 23rd, 2012
11:11 am
Man I hate to say this….but let him go. The NFL is a buisiness and a 30 year old running back (who is already slow) is not going to get any faster. 30 years old is still the prime of most guys career in sports and even in the NFL for most positions…..but not RB. Those guys have the shortest window of all. I love what Turner has done over the last 4 years in Atl, but its time to part ways and get younger and faster at RB.
TRIED OF 2nd BEST.
January 23rd, 2012
11:51 am
Ryan Proved He CAN’T WIN !!! A BIG GAME By His Self. New Guy Better Help Him .Jones and Rodgers were not used right. SMITH —– DEFENCE— THAT’S A JOKE!!!!! BEST DEFENCE GOOD OFFENCE !!!!! I Wonder If Smith Can Coach A BIG GAME !! TURNER NOT WORTH 5 MIL. Can’t Break First Tackle ! Game Changing, Hope New Guy’s Know What It TAKE’S TO WIN!!!!!!!
Falcoons
January 23rd, 2012
1:39 pm
TRIED OF 2nd BEST – You either drink a lot or did not go to school. You realize how many words you spelled wrong?
miket211nj
January 24th, 2012
9:10 am
i hate to say it,, but i would take the gamble and save the 5m and deal turner.. its obvious they have no faith in turners short yardage power (see playoff loss 4and 1s) and Mughelli if healthy can take over that role..dont forget Ovie was a pro bowler..keep Mike Cox too, he showed he can block out of the backfield. i say role the dice go with Quizz and Snelling and Ovie as short yardag/goaline guy at times. Put turners 5m in Carl Nicks pocket. he becomes OUR best lineman, and the saints lose their best lineman. ALSO can we check to see if their is some type of lemon law with ray edwards, puke..
Falcons questions: Fixing five mistakes starts with Sam Baker | Jeff Schultz
January 25th, 2012
1:12 pm
[...] week in the opener of this cyber mini-series, I looked at the possibility of the Falcons parting ways with Michael Turner, who despite finishing third in the NFL in rushing this season was showing signs of wear and might [...]