Falcons’ question No. 1: Should Michael Turner be kept? (UPDATED)
The Falcons may need to sacrifice running back Michael Turner to fill other needs. (AP photo)
(UPDATED)
(This is the first in a series of blogs in which I’ll focus on some high-profile Falcons’ veterans and their respective uncertain future with the team.)
The Falcons need some fixes. They’re not a wreck. (Wrecks don’t make the playoffs in three out of four seasons.) But they have problems — offensive line, secondary and defensive line, for starters. They may need to fill holes during free agency, and that means they’ll need to create salary space. Some players will have to go.
Which brings me to Michael Turner.
This should not be taken as the start of a “Dump Michael Turner” movement. The guy finished third in the NFL in rushing with 1,340 yards. But the question of whether to keep him, cut him or trade him (if possible) for a mid-round draft pick is a legitimate one.
Because the Falcons don’t have first- or fourth-round picks this year (see: Julio Jones trade), they will have to plug more holes in free agency. That will mean salary-cap space. Turner is scheduled to make $5 million in salary next season, but has a cap hit of $7.5 million (factoring $2.5 million for his original signing bonus). He turns 30 years old next month. He has 1,189 carries in the past four seasons, which would wear down even a younger guy. (Technically, Turner is an eight-year back, but he had only 228 carries in his first four seasons in San Diego.)
At the very least, Turner is headed for a reduced role next season, as the Falcons want to give more touches to Jacquizz Rodgers, particularly in the screen game. Not integrating Rodgers into the offense was one of former offensive coordinator Mike Mularkey’s failings.
Understand something: The NFL has changed a lot over the past five years. It’s a pass-driven league now, and marquee running backs are not in great demand. Several teams, including New Orleans and Green Bay, now have gone the running back-by-committee route. If the Falcons made the decision to part with Turner, that committee would include Rodgers, Jason Snelling (a free agent) and Antone Smith, unless another back is drafted or signed in free agency.
Despite his production this season, Turner showed signs of wear. He had rushed for over 100 yards once in a span of eight games until gaining 172 in the regular season-ending blowout against Tampa Bay, a team that had clearly quit. The accompanying chart illustrates how his monthly average yards per carry dropped from 5.57 in September to 3.38 in December. His average yards per game (78.8) also was the lowest of his four seasons in Atlanta.
Does this mean Turner is toast? No. He can still be productive. He ran behind a weak line. He played with a lingering groin strain. But the Falcons’ line isn’t going to suddenly morph into the Hogs up front, and injuries are common with older running backs. The move from Mularkey to new offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter was made with an expansion of the passing attack in mind.
So should Turner be sacrificed? There’s no absolute right or wrong answer. But if the Falcons truly want to fix their holes on the offensive and defensive lines — and this game is still about blocking and tackling — cutting or dealing Turner may be necessary.
The thought of saying goodbye to a 1,340-yard rusher may seem like a strange one, but it’s a new league — and the Falcons need the money.
•
Below is a chart showing Turner’s yards per carry and average yards per game by month in each of his four seasons. Remember too that the final game this season brought up his final 2011 averages.
YEAR SEPT. OCT. NOV. DEC. JAN. TYPC TYPG
• 2008 (YPC) 5.48 3.43 4.04 5.22 -- 4.5 106.2
(YPG) 105.5 77.7 110.6 122.8 --
• 2009 (YPC) 3.48 3.34 7.81 7.0* -- 4.9 79.2
(YPG) 75.3 59.0 115.3 7.0 --
• 2010 (YPC) 3.98 4.88 4.21 3.51 3.94 4.1 85.7
(YPG) 77.0 89.0 96.8 82.5 67.0
• 2011 (YPC) 5.57 4.03 4.04 3.38 10.12 4.5 78.8
(YPG) 78.0 96.8 81.8 55.0 17 (*Turner played only 11 games in 2009 because of injuries, including 1 carry in December.)
•
And now, the floor is yours.
By Jeff Schultz
Follow me on Twitter (@JeffSchultzAJC). Friend me on Facebook (Facebook.com/JeffSchultzAJC).
Tell us what you think about the site
Customer Care »
Vacation stops, manage subscriptions and more
AJC Services
Sections
Other Editions
Visitor Agreement | Privacy Statement
© 2013 The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
697 comments Add your comment
Yo Vince
January 20th, 2012
8:40 am
How could an NFL qb not lead his team to a single point in the most important game of the season?
Just saying.
Yo Vince
January 20th, 2012
8:43 am
I think it’s kind of embarrasing that we spent 72 million, yet the Ravens only spent 30 million for their 5 playoffs winning qb, regardless of who has a better defense. Defenses don’t lose games, they keep you in them. It takes an offense to lead the team and that starts with the qb.
Casey
January 20th, 2012
8:58 am
This far down; I doubt anybody will read my comment. But I’d say keep him in his final year of contract! He’s still a great value at 5M! You will not be able to replace his contribution for that price. There are other cuts you could make to free up the cash. Besides, being a contract year – that’s usually a motivation for most players. But after this coming season would be the time to say goodbye and not resign.
loel
January 20th, 2012
8:58 am
I have noticed for the last two years that after Turner gets his yard and a pile of bodies, he trots off the field for a pass play. Everyone including the opposition now knows its a pass coming because Turner can’t catch a pass. I watched more NFL this year than ever of “other” teams and was amazed at how seemingly great the other teams running backs were and usually they had several of them. His time is over and that was the first year.
Greg. Williams
January 20th, 2012
9:02 am
Keep the train!
Bobo is Not the Problem
January 20th, 2012
9:06 am
Are there any original thinkers left?
Life, and sports, are pendulums.
The proliferation of passing in the NFL will cause defenses to adjust.
Defensive adjustments will cause offenses to re-emphasize the running game.
Anyone who cannot see this is a fool.
Instead of trying to copy what worked last year, how about the Falcons actually develop their own ideas and strategy, recognizing that what worked last year doesn’t necessarily drive what will work this year. In fact, it might mitigate it.
Have a good day.
Scott Case
January 20th, 2012
9:09 am
when the guy only gets 15 carries per game, how can you expect 100 yards?
Yo Vince
January 20th, 2012
9:16 am
It’s bad enough that Flacco has a chance of making it to the superbowl, but if he wins the superbowl, what does that say about Ryan?
MG
January 20th, 2012
9:19 am
Trade or cut him…
With the lingering groin issue he WILL get hurt and miss game time next season. Split his carriers between Snelling/Rogers/FA signing.
I’ll take a 3rd round pick for him any day..
DC Dirty Bird
January 20th, 2012
9:30 am
@Agent009
I get your point. It’s too much to post but MR2 did not post a high QB rating against the top teams we played. I think his best game against a winning team was the New Orleans game in which the defense went to Bourbon St instead of the MB Dome. His worst game was the Houston game. I won’t talk drops for that game in an attempt to be impartial.
With that said, MR2 isn’t a perfect QB, but given the right system and a defense to back him up, he can win games for us. He’s better than at least 16 of the starting QB’s in the league and 2 of the remaining QB’s in the playoffs.
Jon
January 20th, 2012
9:32 am
Keep him. If the underlying question is about performance and production.. Same should be ask of Matt Ryan. He is not getting it done either. Secondly, Mike Smith has proven to me he is no different than Dan R and Jamal Anderson. Run run run with big back up the middle. You need turner for that. Plus he is healthy. The question is fair, but not sure it aligns with what smitty like to do. Remember, the first play of every game all year including the playoffs – and the first play of the second halve – hand off to Michael turner
Chokeonthis
January 20th, 2012
9:35 am
@ You Vince
New name “Choke”, or are you just a copy cat follower with no original schtick of your own?
Lobosolo
January 20th, 2012
9:39 am
Michael Turner is ten times the runner that Jeff Schultz is the writer…. The AJC could well do without Schultz, not missing a lick (really improving, with addition by subtraction), whereas the Falcons certainly would miss the talents of Turner…
DC Dirty Bird
January 20th, 2012
9:48 am
@old man
Thanks for correcting me on the cap hit. That was indeed his cap hit if he remained on the roster. Cutting him is basically a wash. A replacement plus his cap hit equals his salary.
Who is out there other than Michael Bush that will come in for $1-2 million and a dependable 1,000 yd rusher?
William Smith
January 20th, 2012
9:51 am
The NFL this year had three teams with average or less than average defenses that made the playoffs. The Falcons also made the playoffs with a less than average defense. Only one of these teams is still in the playoffs. These teams won in shootouts. What are the chances that the Falcons can sign Brees,Rodgers, or Brady for quarterback. Also, they have offensive lines that are better. Until they build a better offensive line and defense the Falcons will always be also rans.
Mountain Man
January 20th, 2012
9:52 am
Schultz refers to New Orleans’ and Green Bay’s style of offense as running back by committee and suggest that the marquee running back is no longer in style. I respectfully disagree. Any team that can effectively run the ball and stop the run will be able to compete year in and year out.
As far as NO and GB are concerned, where are they now? Sitting on the same sofas as Atlanta watching SF and NY go after the NFC title.
Our needs on the O and D lines and in the secondary are indeed great, but I’m not ready to give up on a 1300+ yard rusher. He is showing signs of slowing down but I think we can get one more year out of him. Let him play out his contract and see where we can go from there. With the reduced carries he may be more effective and more durable next season.
FL dawg
January 20th, 2012
9:52 am
TD needs to do his job. period! Mr stephen a., IMHO Atl should try to drop Turner and Roddy. Roddy made Ryan not vice versa. Sorry Roddy but were stuck with an ice armed QB. Yeah TD kinda got us into a have to do something hole. Therefore Turner ( I love ya both man, and Roddy need to go for some intelligent picks/players. I agree Douglas can produce and JJ has to step up, and you Ice Man ought to be the one on thin ICE!
iceBIRDcold12
January 20th, 2012
10:08 am
Before you cut Turner cut the OL they blocked about as good as a cheap deodorant. A running back is taught to run north and downhill because to can’t gat a first down running east to west. Even the best QB in the world would look bad with blocking such as this. Mr. Dirk put your priorities in order and it should not start with RB.
Jon
January 20th, 2012
10:09 am
Umm. We had a great OL with Dahl went 13-3 and Matty overrated Ice Ryan melted in the Playoffs. Yep, Turner and the OL is our problem.. Yeah right, Turner is not the issue
fan man
January 20th, 2012
10:09 am
Smith and others have said we are a run first team also we lost one of the best fulbacks in the NFL before the season.who knows what Turners numbers would have been otherwise.I didn’t see anything out of the other backs this year that makes me think one of them can take his place permanently.What they can do in FA I don’t know but cutting Turner loose via trade or otherwise make any sense to me.
FL dawg
January 20th, 2012
10:09 am
What does our new OC think Of Ryan. I mean the guy has to wind up to chunk it 65 yards. How many times did he underthrow wide open WR’s this year? I mean is there any NFL team that would give up a #1 pick for him? Roddy made slants the only threat that offense had. JJ made the catch and run an actual threat in ATL again. Is he gonna have to build his playbook around Ryan’s weak arm? I know he can only work with what he’s got. But would Atl really be that diff with Ryan gone? Could they get Vince Young for some trade combo?
Gerhulk
January 20th, 2012
10:15 am
I don’t know if they should keep him or not, but they should definitely ask him to shave down that pubic hair on his face!
RAZOR
January 20th, 2012
10:35 am
I think we miss Harvey Dahl more than we thought.
SirReal
January 20th, 2012
10:50 am
@Bobo I read it and I totally agree.
Matt "CHOKE" Ryan
January 20th, 2012
10:50 am
Jeff
Whats your next prediction?
You and bradley have done so well since Mora left.
HA HA HA
Matt "CHOKE" Ryan
January 20th, 2012
10:53 am
Anybody watching the Ravens since CHOKE is on his annual early vacation
HA HA HA
yo Vince
January 20th, 2012
10:56 am
Me and CHOKE like to play this little steal each others blog name and put up contrary post. It’s fun, but everyone nows I’m funny and CKOKE is a joke. She’s still here and talking to the garbage man on the street. Come get her! MCR
Um
January 20th, 2012
10:56 am
Spagnuolo to take over Saints’ defense
MG3
January 20th, 2012
11:01 am
Turner has been the best running back in Falcons history IMO. That said I think it’s time to cut him loose. The team needs help in other areas and Snelling could likely produce similar results if given enough touches.
Matt "CHOKE" Ryan
January 20th, 2012
11:03 am
Now that my true love MV7 is watching the playoffs again, I have fallin head over heels in love with Joe Flacco. (See my past 10 post). I think it’s his new village people facial hair. I see him and I get all tingly in my dirty parts. I love how Ed Reed begs him not to lose the game for his #3 defense again. Ravens would have 3 rings with the Ice Man under center, said #52 Ray Lewis
JSS
January 20th, 2012
11:08 am
Old Man…
The NFL cap does not give you relief in the same contract year unless a contract expires. If you could just cut a player (of course no contract is guaranteed, but signing bonuses are, remember Ricky Williams?) and get under the cap (with no punishment for executing bad contract and signing bonuses), teams would do it in mass. Turner’s $5,000,000 base year + $1,250,000 cap penalty + $2,250,000 signing bonus guarantee base = $8,500,000 cap hit for the qualifying year.
It is just like a Pro forma where you expense out over time. You might have bought a piece of equipment, it may have broken down in the first 6 months, and you had to replace it at additional cost. You still have to pay for it at a penalty.` There’s extra percentages beyond base salary that you are having to account for.
Rollo lawson
January 20th, 2012
11:12 am
Michael Turner is not the problem. Schultz, Bradley, and Ledbetter know exactly who needs to share blame. Its Matt Ryan. This newspaper and local media were so quick to blame #7 when things fell apart. Even though we had inept coordinators and a shoddy oline (just like now). Kinda like blaming Obama for everything, but turning a blind eye to the republican/conservative B.S.!!! When will Ryan be put on the hotseat. Tired of this AJC manure.
Ed
January 20th, 2012
11:14 am
I feel we should let him go as I see him having maybe 2 years left in the tank. Trade him now while he still have some value. That way you can plug some holes with draft picks or players that you receive in the deal. Plus with the 5 or 7.5 mil you could get and sign some good players.
Orestes
January 20th, 2012
11:31 am
JSS- It’s ashame the so-called journalists that wrote this article was not able to roll out of bed early enough to include this very crucial piece of information in their article. It’s clear that this so-called journalists is far more willing to be inciteful than informative. When is your next Vick article coming? Mrs. Shultz is very disappointed in you sir.
HITTMAN JAMILLION
January 20th, 2012
11:41 am
Look I’m a say it like this. You don’t give up a good thing for the sake of change,especially when you don’t know what you will get back in return. How quickly we forget? This team was not built around Matt Ryan, it was built off the back of Michael Turner. And over the years we’ve added pieces to help Ryan, when in fact Ryan is the most inconsistent piece of this puzzle.
A running backs goals to get over a 1,000yards,receivers to get a 100 catches and 1,000 yards. Falcons wanna make ryan out to something he not a elite 5,000 yard qb. And they’ll die trying
DawgFence
January 20th, 2012
11:55 am
The Falcons are deficient at cornerback, defensive back, offensive line, defensive line, and running back. Ryan is sufficient at QB but should work on arm strength for the deep threat. NFL offenses have morphed into 5,7, and 10 yard dink passing with the deep ball threat mixed in to keep DBs on their heels. Ryan has the dink pass but not that strong arm deep pass that earns respect. Funny how when offensive linemen believe that a back can make things happen without the big holes, they work harder at it. Turner doesn’t make things happen. He had a ggod run though.
footballnut
January 20th, 2012
12:00 pm
As a season-ticket holder, I say let him go. Turner had some good runs this year, but he stacked up those yards mostly against losing teams. When it came time to really show up, he got stuffed. He couldn’t make cuts or bounce off the stack against tough teams, just plowed ahead every time and went nowhere. Plus everybody watching the game knew that if it was Falcons’ first down, the ball was going to Turner — Mularkey never even tried to outsmart opposing defenses. If a player gets the ball a gazillion times a season, sure, you’ll eventually run up some yards against bad teams.
Turner failed on too many fourth-and-inches that turned out to be game losers for us. He’s had a good stretch with the Birds, but it’s time to say buh-bye. Small, quick running backs are making the plays for other teams now, and Rodgers fits the bill. He and Snelling could keep defenses guessing.
Matt Ryan is a great, smart quarterback who ensures us a shot at the Big Dance in the near future, but he can’t do it by himself – he’s gotta have a solid O-line, reliable receivers and runners. Butterfingers Roddy White has to stop dropping as many passes as he catches, and we need a change-up running game to balance things. The new O-coach needs to just tweak a few things, which he can’t do if Turner is tying up $7.5 million of our cap.
footballnut
January 20th, 2012
12:05 pm
@RAZOR, you’re right – we miss Harvey Dahl more than we thought.
footballnut
January 20th, 2012
12:11 pm
Matt Ryan showed several times in regular season and the play-off game that he has the arm, can throw deep — if there is anybody there to catch it! Roddy has been the go-to guy, gets tons more opportunities to catch the ball. But when he doesn’t turn on the speed to get to the ball (or worse, just lets it go through his hands), Matt can’t change that. Julio showed us how it’s done a few times this year, and we’re looking for more of the same in the future!
alex
January 20th, 2012
12:11 pm
no.
JSS
January 20th, 2012
12:20 pm
Orestes…
What’s your point? The NFL does not make Cap calculations readily available, and Schultz did point out in the article that their reasons not to cut Turner because of the cap hit. What he didn’t take into account was the accounting trick the NFL team use to get relief over the life of the contract.
Michael Turner got his $15 million of his $34.5 million up front. But the books only paid him in cap accounting value of $3,753,840 dollars. You have to work thru the real values and see how the they expensed the value. So, even though Turner was paid $16,003,840 in actual pre tax money (salary). His base salary of that amount was only $1,000,000 dollars. Now you can you build a table of assumptions, the $15 million spread out over 6 years. But we see by the $3.7 million ($1M+$2.7) that they did not spread it out exactly at $2.5 million each year (little more in some cases). It is an accounting trick. The Falcons elevated his base salary in proportion after year 3 (the first 3 years his base salary was only $1M on the books) to get the books balanced. So this year, his base salary reflects $5M on the books, and the final year will have a base salary of $5.5M. And to reiterate, that is not the cap value when combined with the signing bonus alone. That is determined by the NFL cap ceiling percentage.
JSS
January 20th, 2012
12:22 pm
Correction: “there are” instead “their”
Chris Dimino
January 20th, 2012
12:23 pm
I say we dump him and get Jackie Robinson.
yo Vince
January 20th, 2012
12:26 pm
Good info JSS. But do you really think we shouldn’t use his marketability to offset the price paid for JJ,
mock1
January 20th, 2012
12:28 pm
Falcons need a back that can break the big one,a back that will make teams pay if they concentrate on stopping the passing game only. Teams knew if you stopped Atl passing game it was a done deal.
itpdude
January 20th, 2012
12:29 pm
There were several times this year that Turner should have been pulled in games that had already been won. I understand running the clock out, but doing it with your starting RB? Give the FB some carries. Give the second and third RB some carries.
That said, Turner is at the end of his career. Don’t drop him and bet the house on a new RB. Get a new RG or RT or both. RG’s and RT’s can be effective longer than RB’s. Look at Larry Allen. Emmit Smith and Frank Gore racked up huge numbers behind that guy and he did it for 14 seasons.
Shore up the O-line first. Turner has another serviceable season ahead of him, but pull him in games that are already won or hopelessly lost. He only has so many carries left in that body.
Tai Chi
January 20th, 2012
12:38 pm
Three points
1. Tebow got beat like a Sinner
2. What’s up with the Alabama college football fans, is every one from Alabama sleeping with their relatives.
3. You should have hired Mike Singletary as DC
Vic
January 20th, 2012
12:43 pm
You’re thinking of getting rid of the #3 in the NFL in yards… Why does this sound CRAZY to me????? The falcons need to focus more on their weak secondary than their running game which was the most consistent part of their offense.
zbulldawg
January 20th, 2012
12:48 pm
WE need speed MORE speed More & more SPEED ! We are slower than the teams we need to beat to move forward ! You can see it when playing these elite teams ! When your fastest DB is a back up It’s time to back up and punt ! ON the fourth down plays YOU can’t just blame the OL ! Need an imagination bootleg run pass Something not just the same play every time ! Matt Ryan is still a work in process ! Matt get in the weight room you look skinny out there ! And for goodness sake get some foot work ! If big Ben can move around on a bad angle you should be winning dancing with the stars !! Mike Smith’s” it will be alright ” an’t gettin it !! You play the whole game every down or hit the road !! LIKE it or NOT These Coons need toughness
zbulldawg
January 20th, 2012
12:54 pm
OH BY THE WAY TURNER WOULD BE A GREAT FIT FOR THE JAGS !!!!!!!!! That would give them 2 power backs ! Could pick up some high draft picks !