Potential first: Georgia and Tech both playing for titles
Mark Richt and Paul Johnson have their teams in position for title shots. (Brant Sanderlin/AJC)
This didn’t seem possible when Georgia opened the season with losses to Boise State and South Carolina and Georgia Tech followed a 6-0 start with losses to Virginia and Miami: But both schools can all but assure themselves of a ticket to their respective conference championship game this week.
The Bulldogs and Jackets never have played for conference championships in the same season since the SEC (1992) and ACC (2005) split off into divisions, nor have they ever won conference titles in the same season.
Here’s the backdrop:
• Georgia (5-1 in SEC plays) holds a half-game lead over South Carolina (5-2) in the SEC East and is a whopping 12½-point favorite over Auburn Saturday in Athens. If the Dogs win, they need to only beat Kentucky at home the following week to clinch the East. The Gamecocks’ final conference game is against Florida, which was Georgia’s last SEC victim. They hold a tiebreaker edge should the Dogs lose one of their two conference games.
• Georgia Tech’s route is a little more difficult. The Yellow Jackets (4-2) trail Virginia Tech (4-1) by a half-game. But they play host to the No. 10 Hokies Thursday night. Most lines have Virginia Tech as a one-point favorite. Georgia Tech’s only other remaining ACC game is at Duke.
(UPDATE: Just to cover all bases: Virginia technically holds a tiebreaker over Georgia Tech. But the Cavaliers would need to sweep their remaining three games against Duke, Florida State on the road and Virginia Tech to win the Coastal.)
The Jackets are coming off an upset of then-No. 5 Clemson. Can they do it again?
Tech has been to the ACC championship game twice since the conference split into divisions in 2005: It lost the title game to Wake Forest in 2006 and defeated Clemson in 2009 (official records now show that championship as vacated by the NCAA, pending appeal).
Georgia has played in three SEC championship games: The Dogs defeated Arkansas in 20o2 and LSU in 2005, and lost to LSU in 2003.
In no year have the two schools won a football conference championship in the same season (both were in the SEC until Tech became an Independent in 1963 and later joined the ACC).
So what are the chances both pull it off this week?
And then what would the chances be that both win championships? The likely opponents in the conference title games would be LSU for Georgia and Clemson for Georgia Tech.
Or should we just go one step at a time?
By Jeff Schultz
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320 comments Add your comment
Dawg1
November 7th, 2011
5:15 pm
I just skipped all of the trash talking…
Auburn is always a good game. The line should be between 3 and 5 points, I would think. But it does make me feel better, since the odds-makers are usually right.
If your a Dawg Fan and your assuming Tech will lose Thursday night – you might want to rethink that. Virgina Tech has one loss – to Clemson. But if you look at the teams they have beaten; there really isn’t a signature win there.
Hard came to call; however, while the Clemson win was impressive, Tech managing 31 points was actually the lowest of the last three games Clemson 45, 38 and 31 respectively and with the Clemson Defense giving up an average of 26.7 points a game.
Tech’s ‘D’ averages giving up 23.3, (a little bit of improvement over the last couple of years), while VT’S D averages giving up 15.4. This appears to be where the advantage lies between the two teams and guessing VT has their usual advantage over Tech (and just about everyone else) in special teams.
Should be a fun game to watch…
Here’s GT’S Season:
Date Opponent / Event Location Time
09/01/11 vs. Western Carolina Atlanta, Ga. W, 63-21
09/10/11 at Middle Tennessee State Murfreesboro, Tenn. W, 49-21
09/17/11 vs. Kansas Atlanta, Ga. W, 66-24
09/24/11 vs. North Carolina Atlanta, Ga. W, 35-28
10/01/11 at North Carolina State Raleigh, N.C. W, 45-35
10/08/11 vs. Maryland Atlanta, Ga. W, 21-16
10/15/11 at Virginia Charlottesville, Va. L, 24-21
10/22/11 at Miami Miami, Fla. L, 24-7
10/29/11 vs. Clemson Atlanta, Ga. W, 31-17
11/10/11 vs. Virginia Tech Atlanta, Ga. 8:00 p.m. ET
11/19/11 at Duke Durham, N.C. TBA
Here’s VT:
Date VT Rank Opponent Time/Result TV Location
Sat., Sep 3, 2011 #13 Appalachian State W, 66-13 ACC Network Lane Stadium
Sat., Sep 10, 2011 #11 at East Carolina W, 17-10 Fox Sports Net Greenville, N.C.
White Out
Sat., Sep 17, 2011 #13 Arkansas State W, 26-7 RSN Lane Stadium
Sat., Sep 24, 2011 #13 at Marshall W, 30-10 CBS Sports Network Huntington, W.Va.
Maroon Effect
Sat., Oct 1, 2011 #11 #13 Clemson * L, 3-23 ESPN2 Lane Stadium
Hall of Fame
Sat., Oct 8, 2011 #21 Miami * W, 38-35 ABC Lane Stadium
Sat., Oct 15, 2011 #19 at Wake Forest * W, 38-17 ESPN3 Winston-Salem, N.C.
Homecoming
Sat., Oct 22, 2011 #16 Boston College * W, 30-14 RSN Lane Stadium
Sat., Oct 29, 2011 #15 at Duke * W, 14-10 ACC Network Durham, N.C.
Maryland Jacket
November 7th, 2011
5:22 pm
ARDawg, I wish *I* could figure us out. The only thing that I know is that our defense is actually decent (or at least consistent, especially given our own special teams problems), and when our offense is clicking, it clicks. At least there’s no way to bet money for or against Tech!
As for Georgia, I’ll admit I have a bit of a bias (at least you guys aren’t Duke; I grew up a Maryland fan until I came down to Atlanta). I’ll agree that Georgia should win, and by more than one as I stated earlier. On the other hand, don’t you love the word “should”?
Maryland Jacket
November 7th, 2011
5:27 pm
Dawg1, I would agree with most of your analysis. Something to keep in mind, however, is the problems that we’ve had on special teams (most visibly against Miami). Points against, while certainly a good metric for overall performance, doesn’t always give enough credit to defenses that either A) played no part in an opponent’s scoring or B) are forced to play with their backs against the wall, say, with the opponent’s offense starting within the 10. Of course, if you took these into consideration, then I withdraw my comment.
HAHAHAHA
November 7th, 2011
5:45 pm
GO DAWGS!!!! KISS OUR HAIRY DOGS A$$ haters
Dawg1
November 7th, 2011
5:47 pm
Maryland Jacket
Fair points. I did not look to see how many points were actually scored by the defense. Plus, Tech had such massive leads, that it is fair to say that they were likely getting some time in for the 2nd and 3rd unit. Virginia Tech only had a couple of ‘blow outs’ where they were in that position.
Good luck – should be a great game!
Injury Bug
November 7th, 2011
5:53 pm
a lsu -bullpuppy sec championship game would actually be a bye week for lsu. the puppies have no business playing in a championship game against a real sec team. in order for the bullpuppies to be relevant again , they should move to the acc or mac !
Maryland Jacket
November 7th, 2011
6:07 pm
Dawg1, it’s alright…actually, tonight, I may try and make an analysis of both Georgia and Tech’s defenses to gauge how they’re doing. In either case, I think it’s safe to say that both have improved immensely from last year, and it’s entirely possible that we end with the same record again (only, you know, not 6-7)
Dawg1
November 7th, 2011
6:20 pm
Wish i had not scrolled up.
5150 – well, you have been put in the penalty box before by the AJC and had to agree to tone it down.. Guessing that it’s coming around again.
For the record:
What Ben Jones did was inexcusable. His coach yanked him off the field. He was admonished and he picked up the phone and personally apologize to the player the next day.
Farley was a dirty player. I do agree with you – that if the shoe had been on the other foot, you would have been on this blog trashing the guy and there would be some dog fans defending him. He used his face mask as a ‘cheese grater’ and while stumbling on the ground, found a way to slip ‘helmet first’ into our QB’S leg. Now, the cheese grater play and the play where he could have had a cup of coffee and a donut after Murray released the ball before he drove him into the turf.
Georgia had put up with an entire day of this and that is why the entire offensive line went after the guy. If the refs had did their job – none of this would have happened.
Your welcome to disagree; but if you go back and look at the game and take that ‘Auburn’ hat off – I think that you’ll conclude that this is what happened.
Looking forward to Saturday’s Game. The Seniors from last year are either in the NFL or working on their next career’s. What’s done is done… Maybe….
Jeff Schultz
November 7th, 2011
6:26 pm
Folks. Is it too much to ask you to keep it clean. I’ve just deleted three comments and don’t want to have to start banning folks again, so please watch yourself.
5150 UOAD
November 7th, 2011
6:32 pm
SORRY JEFF…………..they finally got to me.
Are you going to have the Auburn v UGA game? I will be at the VT v game so i hope you have the UGA game over Mark ( the Kentucky Crab) Bradley.
ARdawg
November 7th, 2011
6:40 pm
Maryland Jacket
There is a reason they play the games as none has ever been won on the blogs
I see a good team in GT waiting to get out and I hope you guys win out and we do to. It’s difficult to gauge the defenses of both teams as both have to this point both faced mostly sub par offenses or at least offenses on weak teams. At the risk of sounding like a homer, I’d have to give the edge on both sides of the ball to UGA. Again I have only seen a few GT games and my estimation of GT could change this week.
Like or despise Murray, he’s capable of lighting it up, doing what it takes to get it done or simply imploding. He’s been consistently getting it done for the last 7 games. The next 3 could go either way. We have the offensive weapons and the depth I think to outlast the Jackets.
On the defensive side we are much better prepared for that triple option than last year. In the last 8 games our starting D is averaging giving up about 1 offensive TD per game. I expect you guys will do better than that. We are stronger, faster and deeper than last year. We are feeling pretty confident on D. Our offense is yet to play a complete game against an SEC opponent. I don’t see Tech’s D as good as most SEC teams we’ve played. I’d have to give UGA an decided edge in the Hate Bowl
ARdawg
November 7th, 2011
6:54 pm
Jeff
Feel free to delete my post in question where I quoted 5150 Uoad. I would love nothing more than that stuff to be admonished and forbidden, I know it’s tough to keep up with most of it but, some of these guys get over the top and stay there
Maryland Jacket
November 7th, 2011
8:17 pm
ARdawg, I can’t complain about you being a homer, and I can’t complain when you focus more on UGA than Tech. I actually started to take a look at Georgia’s defensive stats, and I noticed a few things
A) You guys are good against the run against SEC opponents, holding four of your opponents under 100 yards rushing (and heck, two gained negative yards on the ground). However, when you allowed a ground game (Vandy, USC), you got burned. Vanderbilt appears to be rushing 157.9 yds/game, but Georgia allowed 200 yards on the ground.
B) Your rushing defense is holding SEC foes to roughly 60 less yards than their average, but the passing defense is holding foes only about four yards below their average (with heavy skew thanks to Tennessee and Florida).
C) It appears that Georgia’s scoring above SEC opponents’ average points against, with two exceptions: Tennessee and Ole Miss, the two worst teams in the SEC East.
I’ll do Tech’s analysis in a sec
Maryland Jacket
November 7th, 2011
8:39 pm
And for Tech:
A) We’re good against the pass; only two opponents have thrown for more than 200 yards against Tech, and Maryland only got 87 yards. The two games where our foes passed for at least 100 below their average, they rushed at least 80 yards above their average (Maryland and Virginia).
B) Our passing defense is holding our ACC foes to almost 70 yards below their average, but our rushing defense is allowing our opponents 21 more yards than their average.
C) We scored above our opponents average allowed points three times (UNC, NC State and Clemson), and let them score above their average points only once (NC State),
Between the two schools, Georgia allows 188.67 passing yards to Tech’s 177 passing yards. However, Tech allows 176 rushing yards against Georgia’s 84. Both schools allow roughly four points below scoring averages.
ARdawg
November 7th, 2011
9:56 pm
Maryland Jacket
So whats your final analysis conclusion? What I gather from it, all things being equal but of course they are not is that they are pretty even. GT gains significantly more rushing than an average team from the triple option and the fact, just just keep it on the ground much more often. UGA ground game has been the destruction of GT in years past. Yet this year is hot/cold. Should be a close one
Jeff Schultz
November 7th, 2011
10:20 pm
Instant Dawgma — At some point I’m guessing the SEC will have to increase the number of conference games. It needs to go to 9 or 10. the 8-4 split won’t work in 14- or 16-team conference.
Maryland Jacket
November 8th, 2011
6:22 am
ARdawg, yeah, I pretty much don’t know who’s gonna win our game. If Georgia can get a ground game going a la 2009, that’ll kill us. If we can sprinkle a few completed passes to our own people, that’ll hurt you guys a lot. I think I’ll wait until Thanksgiving week, though, to actually make a real call (14-10 earlier was purely in jest, and with the Bama-LSU game in mind).
Oh yeah, and special teams. Whoever makes the least number of gaffes will probably win (or enjoy fewer heart attacks in any case)
Maryland Jacket
November 8th, 2011
9:54 am
Either way, both of our defenses have come light years ahead of where they were last year, and I’d much rather beat a ranked Georgia team than an unranked one (conversely, I’d grumble less about losing to a ranked Georgia team than an unranked one). I’d imagine that the sentiment is shared, yes?
Also, Jeff, with the additions of Pitt and Syracuse to the ACC in 201-whenever, do you think the ACC would use the opportunity to redo division alignment, or to just stick them in opposing divisions and have them be each other’s fixed cross-division foe? Should it be the former, do you think that GT should try and switch with Boston College? That way, we get to have a tougher schedule each year (Florida State + Clemson with division implications + BC’s former cross-division foe, Virginia Tech)
ARdawg
November 8th, 2011
11:09 am
Maryland Jacket
No question the sentiment is shared. As you know we have problems on ST. Hopefully, Richt and the crew have found a way to work through it
IT Dawg
November 8th, 2011
11:51 am
Ga beats auburn by 10, sc beats fla, Ga wins the east. Take auburn and the points.