Poll time: Is this the year Dogs finally thump Gators?
Orson Charles and Dogs came close last year but lost in overtime. (Brant Sanderlin)
Here we go again. Does I-95 morph into Georgia’s “Trail of Tears” again?
Heading to Athens this morning for Mark Richt’s weekly news conference. I think you can make a case that this is the most important Georgia-Florida game during Richt’s administration, given the ramifications for both this season (the SEC East is still up for grabs) and the big picture (no elaboration necessary).
Loading ...The Gators have lost three straight, but they had lost three straight last season when they defeated the Bulldogs in overtime 34-31. The Dogs have won five straight, but the fact the wins have comes over Coastal Carolina, Mississippi,Mississippi State, Tennessee and Vanderbilt justifiably tempers the celebration (the four SEC opponents have a combined conference record of 1-15.)
I’m not ready to make a prediction yet. You’ll have to wait a couple of days. But here are a few reasons why either team can win, just in case you need something to ponder before voting in the who’s-going-to-win poll.
Why Georgia will win:
• 1) Better quarterback: Aaron Murray has not had a great season but he should be given the edge over John Brantley, who is expected to return from an injury after missing two and a half games and figures to be rusty.
• 2) Better defense: It might be difficult to tell because of the level of opponents, but the Dogs’ defense has improved this season (third in the SEC, sixth in the nation at 272.9 yards per game), and to a lesser degree in scoring (20.4 ranks sixth in the SEC, 27th in the nation).
• 3) Law of averages: Florida has won 18 of the last 21 meetings. Richt has lost three straight and eight of 10. But the Dogs came close last year. It has to turn at some point … doesn’t it?
Why Florida will win:
• 1) Weis vs. defense: The Florida offense has been a mess the last few weeks. But Charlie Weis is one of the best offensive coaches in the game and now he gets back his starting quarterback. Even if Brantley’s timing is off, Weis will put him in the right situations to succeed.
• 2) This could be a three-point game. So it seems appropriate to point out that the Florida kicker (Caleb Sturgis) is 15 for 16 and the Georgia kicker (Blair Walsh) is 12 for 20.
• 3) The Gators are not nearly as bad as they’ve been made out to be. They were waxed in consecutive games by Alabama and LSU, but those two are leveling everybody. In the last game, a 17-6 loss to Auburn, Florida was still missing Brantley. Can we really say they’re worse than Georgia? To date, the schools have had only one common opponent: Tennessee. The Dogs won 20-12; the Gators won 33-23. That’s a push. Florida has beaten Kentucky and lost to Auburn, which Georgia hasn’t played yet. Georgia has lost to South Carolina and beaten Vanderbilt, which Florida hasn’t played yet.
By Jeff Schultz
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430 comments Add your comment
ARdawg
October 25th, 2011
10:48 am
That stat is akin to the one where UGA put a worse beatdown on Missy St than did LSU so, UGA is as good as LSU
Studawg
October 25th, 2011
10:48 am
im not convinced Brantley will play. I think Muschamp may just be saying that so that we waste preparation time getting ready for him.
Ron Swanson
October 25th, 2011
10:50 am
GT Bob – is the Tech blog with 20 followers not interesting? Am glad you are so concerned about Georgia’s competition. Please remind us all who Tech has played- is there a single ranked team in there? Better yet, who has Tech beaten?
Atlanta Gator
October 25th, 2011
10:50 am
“Muschamp’s press release yesterday is reeks of smoke and mirrors. No surprise there but, I have doubts as to Brantley even playing, much less starting.”
If true, AR Dawg, Florida goes from a slight favorite to a 6-point ‘dog in my book.
The one thing that gives me more hope than any other is the fact that the Gators REALLY need this game, and I hope Muschamp and Weis have them ready.
Sid
October 25th, 2011
10:51 am
Yes, Georgia wins but let’s not get too excited. Florida brings in their first subpar team in years and still have UGA by the short and curlys. Let’s beat the big bass drum when the Dawgs consistently win in Jax.
shankit
October 25th, 2011
10:52 am
Muschamp has to get himself a Visor.
AFAN
October 25th, 2011
10:53 am
UGA travel time to Jax is what 6 hours or more. Florida has to do what? Get out of their trailer and come to the park in the back yard?
geez.
Brantley will not be sharp. The guy hasnt played in a month. So how can he be real effective?
GTBob
October 25th, 2011
10:54 am
ARdawg, I don’t think that Florida is good, but I do feel like at full strength they are better then the cupcakes UGA has played in the last 5 games. Auburn may be sub-mediocre but they are better then Florida and South Carolina so that doesn’t really say much for the SEC east or the SEC in general.
murfdawg
October 25th, 2011
10:54 am
If we kick a fg on the first drive, we will lose. I’m not a mathematical genius, but CMR seems to like to swap 3 for 7 with every team. as bad as our special teams are, why not go for it on 4th down and as least give the defense (our strongest part) a fighting chance to stop the other team or get a turnover.
The key to the game is GIVEAWAYS. We gave SC 28 points and have given up pick sixes in two other games. We are not good enough to overcome critical mistakes.
This is a new decade and the Dawgs need to make this a rivalry again.
Ron Swanson
October 25th, 2011
10:55 am
Amen, Sid. We’re starting to sound like Tech fans around here. Dawgs need to win a few, get the momentum back in our favor so that we can call it a “rivalry”again with a straight face.
Abnerish
October 25th, 2011
10:56 am
If Brantley plays, Gators win. If he doesn’t (or if he plays on one leg), then the Dawgs win. Florida’s backup QBs are not good enough even with the karma and recent history on their side. But throw a healthy Brantley in the mix and it’s a completely different game.
DawgDad
October 25th, 2011
10:57 am
Sure, I want the Dawgs to win. Bad. Expecting a close, hard-fought game, like South Carolina.
Why don’t I think the Dawgs will win? Well, Florida is desperate for a win and with Brantley back they have to believe the crushing burdens of the schedule and injury are finally off their backs. They know if they play hard and play their game they will win, because they are Florida and they are better than Georgia, better and deeper in talent. Demps, Rainey, those are big time difference-makers and they have to be chomping at the bit to unleash fury on UGA. That’s the monkey on Georgia’s back – they have to prove on the field they can overcome a legacy of penalties, mistakes, poor play, and the [past?] reality they are simply out-manned and out-coached.
It’s clear UGA has some better talent and coaching on the defensive side of the ball this year. A lot rides on the shoulders of the young guns on offense. It’s not at all clear they’ve matured as players and team or have the depth, discipline, and game plan to beat Florida. They have a lot to prove on the field.
GTBob
October 25th, 2011
10:57 am
Ron Swanson, this blog has nothing to do with Tech, and I didn’t mention Tech. Why are you so offended that fans of other teams might comment on the topic that Jeff Schultz wrote about?
shankit
October 25th, 2011
10:57 am
Brantley must have come a long way since last year.
Atlanta Gator
October 25th, 2011
11:00 am
“Muschamp has to get himself a Visor.”
No doubt. Does anyone not believe that if Spurrier were the Gators’ offensive coordinator, even with a freshman quarterback, that he would find some magic to beat Georgia? Muschamp may be the Gators’ future, but the Evil Genius is still missed in Gainesville. . . .
Jeffery the Clown
October 25th, 2011
11:02 am
Tables will turn with Muschump. The sinking ship known as UF is in trouble. This UF coaching staff will implode after this game and the nails will be hammered. UGA is about to start an 8 game winning tradition over the UF. Things have changed in the way UF is perceived by the youth of America. It is no longer the program to be a part of and will not be for many years.
RabidDawg84
October 25th, 2011
11:02 am
Years ago, I decided that I had seen UF beat UGA enough to last a lifetime. I will dvr it and watch it if we win. That is the best I can do. I’m playing with my kids SAT afternoon. Crowell needs to get and stay healthy for UGA to ahve a chance. I love RS, but he trips at the line and needs to be a LB.
gomdawg
October 25th, 2011
11:03 am
SIMPLE GEORGIA WINS BIG A BETTER TEAM THAN FLORIDA AND BETTER COACHED.
TN Jeff
October 25th, 2011
11:03 am
GA should win but GA won’t win. They are poorly coached. They play not to lose. They never put inferior teams away. Horrific special teams is a major liability (blocked punts, faked punts resulting in touchdown runs by linemen, etc). The proclivity for doing something ridiculously stupid at key moments seems a given under Richt these days (consecutive penalties ad nausea resulting in a 4th and 57 when a field goal would have iced the game). RIcht only seems to awaken in games when there is a fight (before, during, or after the game) and there’s no way to be sure that one will break out before the final score is on the board. Absolutely no apparent second half adjustments to counter when other teams make such adjustments. The talent can’t overcome the lack of coaching & strategy.
TN Jeff
October 25th, 2011
11:04 am
gomdawg – have you watched GA play this year?
J
October 25th, 2011
11:05 am
The Dawgs will lose beacause their coach is totally incapable of firing up a team..they will show up like they did against Boise State, totally flat…Richt should have been fired after the last 2 years results, one mediocre and one horrible year…The only saving grace is if he loses to Florida again they will have no choice but to fire him…good riddance…he was an idiot to apologize for his player and coaches conduct last game..good guy does not make a good coach..
Jeffery the Clown
October 25th, 2011
11:05 am
GTbobby: What happened to GT last week?
Atlanta Gator
October 25th, 2011
11:05 am
“Tables will turn with Muschump. The sinking ship known as UF is in trouble. This UF coaching staff will implode after this game and the nails will be hammered. UGA is about to start an 8 game winning tradition over the UF. Things have changed in the way UF is perceived by the youth of America. It is no longer the program to be a part of and will not be for many years.”
Been spending some time with Jeanne Dixon’s ghost again, have we?
frank
October 25th, 2011
11:07 am
He apologized by calling his own guy a dumb @$$. Next spring he will take him high diving and out for ice cream cones.
icedawg
October 25th, 2011
11:07 am
Whichever team comes out stale after the 2 week break loses.
Bama in Atlanta
October 25th, 2011
11:08 am
When Brantley is in don’t look for him to be standing in the pocket for a long time. Weiss will know that Grantham will be coming after him so look for several screens and quick slants. If UGA can limit the run game and go ahead early on points then that should force Brantley to look downfield….all the while hearing the feetsteps of Jenkins, Jones, Ogletree, etc. Just don’t overlook Demps and Rainey flaring for the dump off.
If the game is close, look for a fake punt from the first team to get the ball around midfield on 4th and less than 5 yards for a 1st down. Field positon will be key so it’s up to special teams to swing the favor by long returns. The UF backs and receivers don’t like to be hit hard……hit’em hard. If UF gets ahead early don’t try to get it all back on one play, you’ve got a good balance of running and passing just don’t get predictable (are you listening BoBo?).
Way too many variables to make a prediction on this but should be fun to watch. Also, this will give me more time to chill the beer for our game next week. Good luck and go Dawgs!
DAWG MAN
October 25th, 2011
11:08 am
Dawgs are going to win and play LSU-Alabama and beat them, then win the National Championship game against Oklahoma State!!!!!!!
Jeffery the Clown
October 25th, 2011
11:10 am
J: give me another coach who has won 100+ games in the SEC that is active? DBAG!!!!
GTBob
October 25th, 2011
11:11 am
GTbobby: What happened to GT last week?
We got beat 24-7. Defense played well. Offense and special teams were terrible. Check out Mark Bradley’s blog. He had a nice recap of the game.
shankit
October 25th, 2011
11:11 am
Bama in Atlanta – What are you doing Satdy?
The Dawgs could use you in the locker room
pregame and then on the sidelines.
Fleming Island Dawg
October 25th, 2011
11:12 am
Definitely a FLorida Home game and yes we used to win a lot of away games. Florida has a much shorter travel time which wears on people and the entire city plus media backs the Gators like its their second home. Yes the stadium is divided but the city is much more Gator. Just like if the game was moved to the GA Dome it would be a GA home game even though its neutral.
Atlanta Gator
October 25th, 2011
11:17 am
Q: “give me another coach who has won 100+ games in the SEC that is active? DBAG!!!!”
A: Stephen Orr Spurrier. Spurrier is 172-59-1 in 232 SEC football games as a head coach, including 122-25-1 (.8277) at Florida and 50-34 (.5952) at South Carolina.
I guess we forgot about him, eh?
Troll Power Ratings
October 25th, 2011
11:18 am
Gator Bob: Some good points, but I don’t buy FL has better athletes. FL seems to be in disarray at the moment with the growing pains of a new regime. I think Georgia is better at the moment, but FL has a lot of recent history being able to handle Georgia regardless of who is the better team (it has usually, but not always been FL in the past 15 years or so). I’m a hopeful homer, and add skeptic – I’ll believe it when I see it!.
AFAN
October 25th, 2011
11:19 am
You never know with the UGA/Florida Game. Yes. Florida has been on a winning streak. But UGA was before that. If you look at the overall numbers then no one has dominated overall.
UGA has a better team this year. Florida will play over their heads.
But I look for UGA to win this one. Brantley playing will benefit Georgia in this game. He is rusty and our DBs will pick a few.
Fat Dog Brindise
October 25th, 2011
11:19 am
The alternative to the WLOCP in Jax is having just another regular season, SEC East game played in Gville and Athens. This game is known around the country for the bowl game-type atmosphere in Jax. People who aren’t fans of either team want to come see the game for themselves. Take that away and 10 years from now this will be just another SEC game on the schedule. I think throwing away 70+ years of our unique tradition would be a shame.
this dawg want hunt!!
October 25th, 2011
11:20 am
UGA will lose because of coaching, just like they have 8 of the last 10 games in Jax. Neither team has beaten a quality opponent, and both teams wet the bed when they played top 10 competition. This years WLCP should be called the toilet bowl, coz both of these teams stink. Not to mention, both teams have very questionable head coaches. Richt is terrible at motivating his team, and designing a formidable game plan. Muschamp is just terrible period, and he should have been suspended by the weisel Slive for his actions on the sidelines in previous games. All that being said, UGA will lose for several reasons: 1) Special teams. florida plays it’s good athletes with trememdous speed on it’s special teams, while the brilliant Richt plays his 9 or 10 walkons, who don’t have any speed. 2)Murray will wilt in another big game, as he has done every big game in his 1 1/2 year career. 3)bobo will have his usual brain freeze in the redzone, and Florida will make him look like the high school coach he is. UGA want beat florida with field goals, never have, and never will. 4) If they try their 4 or 5 field goals, Walsh has proven this year, he can’t be counted on. 5) UGA and bobo want to throw the deep ball all day long, problem is Florida has fast D.B’s, and M.M. with his gimpy hamstring want be able to run by these guys. Add all of this up, and you have your typical beatdown coming for Richt. Hopefully this will be his last one.
Fleming Island Dawg
October 25th, 2011
11:20 am
Everyone says GA’s defense is not good because of who they have played, well how is FL’s offense so good with Brantley. He lit AL up for what 7 and 3 from the kicker? Prior to that they had played weak teams. It goes both ways.
All Saints
October 25th, 2011
11:21 am
Just a reminder that we’ll be having our regular tribute and moment of silence on Saturday for Saint Jan Kemp, the courageous martyr who exposed UGA and Vince Dooley’s “remedial studies” fraud.
Please approach this special moment with reverence as we honor her sacred name.
Atlanta Gator
October 25th, 2011
11:22 am
“Definitely a FLorida Home game and yes we used to win a lot of away games. Florida has a much shorter travel time which wears on people and the entire city plus media backs the Gators like its their second home. Yes the stadium is divided but the city is much more Gator. Just like if the game was moved to the GA Dome it would be a GA home game even though its neutral.”
Fleming Island Dawg, I will grant you that the travel time is a minor disadvantage for the Dawgs, but what the heck do the supposed biases of the local Jacksonville news media and the partisan sympathies of the local Jacksonville population have to do with the Dawgs’ on-the-field performance in the Florida-Georgia game?
ARdawg
October 25th, 2011
11:22 am
Atlanta Gator
I’d be surprised if Weis and Muschamp’s gameplan for the UGA included much of Brantley. “IF” I were them with a lingering doubt about Brantley I’d be developing and practicing a game plan with the backups that was an 80% running game with short dumps. We’ve had no answer for the legs of Rainey and Demps. I can onlt hope that Grantham has found one this year. Take that coupled with the fact that our secondary is pretty quick and good this year, if Brantley had any success it likely would be minimal
Schultz$$$
October 25th, 2011
11:23 am
Schultz says: “I’m not ready to make a prediction yet. You’ll have to wait a couple of days.”
Wow, these will be the most excrutiatingly painful days I’ve ever spent — waiting on Schultz to tell us what he thinks. Don’t flatter yourself. You’re entitled to your opinion, but it doesn’t really mean anything to just about everybody, pal. Most liberals think they’re more important than they really are — you’re no exception.
Ocala Sal
October 25th, 2011
11:25 am
The mighty Gators in a walkover: 31-17
Such a fun game to watch!
Atlanta Gator
October 25th, 2011
11:25 am
“Neither team has beaten a quality opponent, and both teams wet the bed when they played top 10 competition. This years WLCP should be called the toilet bowl, coz both of these teams stink. Not to mention, both teams have very questionable head coaches.”
Sad, but true. Neither team is up to their usual SEC standard this year. More like the top three of the 2011 ACC, I would say. LOL
Spike 80DF
October 25th, 2011
11:26 am
Dawgs run out of the locker room wearing FSU colors in an attempt to intimidate the Gators after their loss last year to the noles. Then at halftime instead of making coaching adjustments we make wardrobe adjustments changing back to the Grambling uni’s of 09…..oh yea and Dawgs lose again because they act afraid of UF every year. I hope I’m wrong but I won’t believe it until we show up in Jacksonville start to finish…
ARdawg
October 25th, 2011
11:27 am
GT Bob
At full strength there was no proof that FL was any better than the lesser SEC teams that UGA has beaten. UGA has only proved that they are slightly better than those same teams.
Use to, you would actually discuss football from a realistic and fundamental standpoint and not a homer POV like much of your breathern. I miss that GT Bob. What happened? Two losses make you that bitter?
Ron Swanson
October 25th, 2011
11:28 am
Game should always remain in Jax. We weren’t complaining when dominating UF down there pre-Spurrier. A different location would have not resulted in more UGA wins. Coaches must do a better job of preparing our players for this game. Look out Boise game-intangibles were all on our side, however team was totally flat and coaching plan was downright atrocious.
Bama in Atlanta
October 25th, 2011
11:29 am
@shankit
This Saturday I will be nursing the bruises on my forehead from slamming it against the wall this past weekend when we went in the locker room at halftime tied 6-6 with the Vols!
JDawg17875
October 25th, 2011
11:29 am
Just read that Ogletree is starting at ILB. Any word on the other starters at LB?
Atlanta Gator
October 25th, 2011
11:29 am
“I’d be surprised if Weis and Muschamp’s gameplan for the UGA included much of Brantley. “IF” I were them with a lingering doubt about Brantley I’d be developing and practicing a game plan with the backups that was an 80% running game with short dumps. We’ve had no answer for the legs of Rainey and Demps. I can onlt hope that Grantham has found one this year. Take that coupled with the fact that our secondary is pretty quick and good this year, if Brantley had any success it likely would be minimal.”
Interesting take on the game, AR Dawg.
Without disagreeing with your analysis of Brantley and the Gators’ passing game, having both Demps and Rainey in the game should be helpful against the Dawgs. I’m also hopeful that the Gators defense shows up this weekend and makes an impact.
ARdawg
October 25th, 2011
11:31 am
You know, it was only a few short years ago that the East pounded the West like a red headed step child. You West Yahoo’s proclaiming dominance and superioty should enjoy it while you can. The East won’t be down long