It won’t be easy for Braves to turn fans back into believers
Fredi Gonzalez and Frank Wren have a lot of damage to overcome. (Curtis Compton/AJC)
This has been, as a general rule, a pro sports market of misery and hangovers, not celebrations and … well, hangovers.
The Falcons lost an NFL playoff game in 1980, and it evolved into some perceived mutant voodoo curse for the next two decades. The Hawks last won an NBA title in an era of canvas high tops (1957-58), and when they were based in St. Louis. The NHL – two teams, come and gone (the first winning a Stanley Cup after it moved to Calgary).
Even when the Braves’ lone World Series title in 1995 is referenced, it’s usually with some verbal slap about 13 other Octobers when the team fell flat, fell short or outright imploded (1996 vs. the Yankees)?
It’s for that reason that Fredi Gonzalez, Frank Wren, Terence McGuirk and the corporate weasel owner behind the curtain should be aware of something: This city-wide vitriol that they’re hearing, seeing and feeling in the aftermath of a late-season self-immolation is going to linger for a while.
Through the winter. Through the spring. Probably even through next September, because we’ve learned not to make assumptions with 8½-game leads.
Martin Prado's batting average dropped from .307 to .260 this season. (Curtis Compton)
In 22 years of living in Atlanta, I’ve witnessed the area’s sports fans being sad, distraught, shocked, confused, frustrated and numb. But I can’t ever remember this level of anger directed at a team, at least not outside of Athens, where it can be a weekly occurrence. (Eugene Robinson submarined the Falcons at the Super Bowl with a late-night mission of lust, but nobody could blame the team for that.)
By unraveling in the season’s final weeks, the Braves just firebombed much of their audience. It took five years to get people excited again in 2010, and that has been undone. Few will listen now to grand proclamations about this team contending for titles, until it actually does. Certainly, nobody will assume greatness of Fredi Gonzalez, at least until he can exorcise memories of a 9-18 September.
This is not an-easy-to-please sports town — not because fans have been spoiled, but because they’ve been conditioned to assume the worst.
In theory, the Braves should still be a strong playoff contender next season. But in theory, they had a playoff team this season (yes, even after injuries).
Fair or unfair, almost every assumption we made about this team now seem off. Dan Uggla, a career .263 hitter in Florida and .287 in his last season, came to Atlanta, signed a $61 million contract and needed every bit of it for therapy. He hit .233, and that, folks, was close to the high-water mark. So now we must wonder: Was he a great player on a bad team and in an invisible market who can’t take the pressure on a bigger stage?
Jason Heyward hit .227, 50 points lower than his rookie season, lost his swing after injuries and then lost his starting job. So we ask: Was 2010 an aberration, the scouting reports bunk?
Martin Prado’s average dropped from .307 to .260, he had the second-worst on-base percentage (.302) among regular position players on the roster, and he scored 34 fewer runs (66) than a year ago. Alex Gonzalez, the only player with a lower on-base percentage, hit .241, far below the shortstop he was acquired for, Yunel Escobar (.290), who also happens to be six years younger. Brian McCann, a perennial All-Star, faded late for the second consecutive season despite a new offseason workout plan.
Gonzalez? He was manager of the year with the Marlins three years ago. But is getting a cheap, young team to overachieve with 84 wins his strength?
All of this might seem unfair. But it’s not like most of this bunch has a long resume. The burden of proof is on them.
The Braves built up a lot of good will in 2010. They made the playoffs after a four-year absence and a season filled with an almost cartoon-like string of injuries. They were fun to watch, simply because they never stopped playing hard, even when X-rays, MRIs and logic told them the year was over. They lost in the playoffs, but it seemed acceptable because those box scores included the names Melky Cabrera, Troy Glaus, Rick Ankiel, Nate McLouth, Brooks Conrad, Diory Hernandez and Kyle Farnsworth.
There was momentum coming into 2011. There won’t be momentum going into 2012. Or assumptions. It’s going to take a while before people believe again.
By Jeff Schultz
•
Last 3 Braves blogs:
– Braves reverse field, make right call firing Larry Parrish
– Braves collapse, and the shine just came off of Fredi Gonzalez
– Poll time: Who should get most blame for Braves’ collapse?
Follow me on Twitter @JeffSchultzAJC; friend me at Facebook.com/JeffSchultzAJC
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302 comments Add your comment
JHarber
October 1st, 2011
10:57 am
guys gals, sit back and think about since wren has been gm. then you tell me who too blame. he hired fg, failed on pence, did good on bourne but what would pence and bourne meant to this team? but if you look at all his deals i think failure. at least j s tried to improve his team. yes some went bad but he tried.
RHR
October 1st, 2011
10:58 am
I do believe there is something to the Uggla Theory of big fish/little pond player coming to a little fish/big pond team. It sure didn’t effect hunter pence, but Nate mclouth and Dan are two of the most recent examples that there may be a little something to it. Also, Jeffy Francoeur played better in KC than he did in either NYC or ATL. hmmmm.
FJ10
October 1st, 2011
11:02 am
Larry
” This is a business” – I think it’s a game. Idiots like yourself always tie how much money is being paid and to who and why and wah wah wah blah blah blah puke. Your discussions and obsessions with the “business” ruin this sport.
Keep your money. They don’t need it and never did you fool. What a stand you are making. Frank Wren must be on the phone right now to Liberty demanding Francona (sucks) because they need your measly 5-10k per year. Baseball teams have survived worse threats than you. Go away.
Ridonkulous
October 1st, 2011
11:03 am
I had to check it out but it is true … Melky Cabrera had 201 hits for the Royals. 201 FREAKING HITS! Thats 84 hits in 200 more AB’s than he had in Atlanta (.420!) Baseball is insane – we could’t get him out of here fast enough. Is the Braves “vaunted” front office losing it completely in talent evaluation?
Bill Stanfill
October 1st, 2011
11:07 am
Melky and Francoeur enjoyed the benefits of AL pitching, especially the Central division, and AL ballparks. I don’t see any NL team trading for Francoeur–general managers know the stats.
Delbert D.
October 1st, 2011
11:14 am
Get Tito now. He’s not going to be available for long.
Dr. Warren
October 1st, 2011
11:16 am
My comment about the fake Sonny Clusters–the syntax and style change makes it obvious–has been deleted. Jeff, do you and fake Sonny have a corrupt bargain??
ground_fog
October 1st, 2011
11:30 am
Please sell this team liberty media. You don’t care. Please sell it so this corporate culture can be blown up. 20+ years of mostly underachievement.
FIRST
October 1st, 2011
11:34 am
Ralph Friedgen is flying a Georgia Tech flag right now.
Knife@Gunfight
October 1st, 2011
11:37 am
Way too much wrong to fix or shore up a few areas (i.e. fine tuning). Fredi would never be the type to overachieve like Joe Maddon did in TB.. i.e. Get into the postseason with a rag team that BELIEVES they can move mountains …so, forget that notion. Fredi would have to have the equivalent of the 2011 Phillies to do anything ,, and would probably still find a way to screw it up.
?
October 1st, 2011
11:39 am
When is a game decided to be suspended (such as yanks – detroit) as opposed to postponed?
Anyone?……anyone?…..Buehler?…..Buehler?….
ATLien
October 1st, 2011
11:44 am
It’s not city wide vitriol…It’s AJC blog vitriol. That is a HUGE difference. I think most rational Braves fans are disappointed for sure, but understanding of what actually happened….the perfect storm of injuries on a young team vs a out of it’s mind hot Cardinals team.
Now, all you losers carry on with your blame this guy and blame that guy crap. Cry about firing whoever. Schultz should be on the top of that list.
ohhhhYEAH
October 1st, 2011
11:55 am
To the morons who think Frank Wren needs to “do better, and shape up, and stop being an idiot because he signed Lowe and KK for this much and that much,” do you not realize that was THREE YEARS AGO?! And being as how i have not seen anymore ridiculous contracts such as these offered by him lately, I would say he learned his lesson. So why the heck are we still talkin about it? He knows he screwed up with it, we know he screwed up with it, and again, it was three years ago, and nothing can be done about it now. So whatever ridiculous points youre trying to make by constantly bringing this up is very stupid and shows how little you know/pay attention to what the man does.
ohhhhYEAH
October 1st, 2011
11:57 am
“?”
i believe a game is suspended after it has already begun, and weather interrupts a game already in progress. Postponed is in reference to a game not yet started.
bigstack19
October 1st, 2011
12:12 pm
If Lowe is on the Braves next season I may puke. Lets face it folks, the Phillies are better and probably will be next season too. They have better pitching and tons of offense. They are able to get Halliday and Lee and Pence because they have good ownership that spends money. Everyone is down on Chipper but he was the hnd best offensive player all year behind Freddie Freeman. With Kawakami and McClouth coming off the payroll next year and Wren who isn’t afraid to make a trade I look for some improvement to the lineup next season. I can’t see Lowe being back. I would be okay with trading Jurrjens. Add to the pen and bolster the bench and hire a good hitting coach and back to the playoffs next year.
Skeezix
October 1st, 2011
12:22 pm
I am a lifetime Braves fan, as my late father was. I became a fan when I (as a very young kid) followed along with my Dad as he rooted for the 1957 Milwaukee Braves. I still recall the names of most of those players–and that’s when Henry Aaron, Spahn, Burdette, Mathews, and many other Braves of that time became my heroes when I was a little leaguer. 1957 and 1995 are highlights in my life and were in my Dad’s. I thought we really had a team that could contend this year. But then we had September 2011–the worst experience of all for me as a Braves fan. So…..I am hoping for just four things of Braves management for next year:
1. Emphasize the importance of small ball and get a hitting coach that can at least teach these guys how to bunt.
2. Get Jason some help–the kid has so much talent and it was wasted this year. I don’t know why he stands so far from the plate, but MLB pitchers will keep eating him up until he learns to hit closer to the plate.
3. Go ahead and turn the pitching over to the next generation.
4. Get us a big stick for the outfield (should have been done last year!).
jobe
October 1st, 2011
12:23 pm
hawesg..u stupid man.. If Constanza drops his ba to regular self after being hot that would be to a 300 ba..Because he was a 300 plus lifetime hitter in minors and now a life time 318 in majors. We were winning when he got hurt and FREDI the DA never game him a chance again. J-Who drops his average to 222 and thats his normals self for this year.
Get a life!
Bill
October 1st, 2011
12:25 pm
Hire Greg Walker hitting coach!
extremus
October 1st, 2011
12:26 pm
@ATLien,
No offense, but you underestimate the effect this collapse has had not only in Atlanta but across the “Braves Nation” in other areas of the country. My entire family loves the Braves and we’ve watched them every single summer since 1982 (I was in little league so that’s when we started following baseball; the Braves’ unlikely divisional win that year quickly made them our team). All that said, my brother doesn’t even want to talk about the Braves right now and everyone else is very disappointed and frustrated.
I wouldn’t go so far anymore as to call openly angry Atlanta sports fans “fair weather”; we’ve weathered too many storms and heart-wrenching disappointments for that to be the case (no other sports franchise has tortured their fanbase by getting so close so often and consistently finding ways to ultimately fail). Our frustration is justified; yes, injuries and things beyond anyone’s control did happen in 2011, but other teams have those (including previous Braves teams) and fight through them. Overall you just don’t let your team become as apathetic and devoid of hope and passion as happened especially toward the end of this season. In that aspect they DID follow the lead of their manager, Freddi Gonzalez. He needs to go.
Dubvee
October 1st, 2011
12:35 pm
I feel bad for Kimbrel in that last game. A young kid who got the willies. Where was Roger to calm him down?
dean
October 1st, 2011
12:36 pm
Go after Reyes? Sorry, selfishness is not what the Braves need. His actions of Wednesday showed what kind of man he is. Pass.
Robert
October 1st, 2011
12:42 pm
Bill Stanfill, your comment, especially about Cabrera makes no sense whatsoever. Dustin Pedroia played in the same parks and against the same pitching. So did Cano. So did a lot of other hitters. Cabrera had more hits than all of them…he was 4th in the league in hits.
Matt
October 1st, 2011
12:46 pm
You cited Batting Avg. way too much in this article. Its pretty much a useless stat. Always remember Batting Avg ignores walks and power. Evaluate offensive performance first with OBP or better yet wOBA.
Ridonkulous
October 1st, 2011
12:50 pm
Cabrera was let go because he (1) didn’t perform here. But also because he didn’t fit the Braves template. He was a little too flashy, at times, he may have dogged it, all the things that made Bobby upset. 201 hits – even on a bad team facing beer league pitchers is balling.
Ridonkulous
October 1st, 2011
1:03 pm
Cabrera was mostly a CF for KC (144 games) and had 201 hits, 87 RBI, and an .809OPS … Bourn, Schafer & McLouth had 171 hits, but knocked in a pathetic 41 runs!!! (and those are inflated because Nate played a lot of LF).
I’m not saying anything but that the Braves saw nothing in Melky. Why not? I think that was solely based on the fact that he wasn’t “a Braves guy.”
We traded Javier Vasquez for Cabrera … and what did Vasquez ever do after that? Other than shut the Braves out in game number 155.
Ridonkulous
October 1st, 2011
1:07 pm
How does Frank Wren explain missing so badly on Cabrera? I know why we got him for Vasquez. He played badly in his only year here. We dead flat released a guy who went on to have 201 hits! Because Bobby didn’t like the way he wore his hat?
BRAVESFAN
October 1st, 2011
1:27 pm
I would be more concerned who the players believe and will follow into battle. I don’t know who that is but the search should have started a long time ago. The fans and money will follow a winner. I wonder how much time the Phillies spend on promotions to get fans in the seats, probably not as much as the Braves because they know all you have to do is win.
iTiSi
October 1st, 2011
1:28 pm
Excellent article and I don’t usually toss out the accolades. This is the cold, hard truth and I expect to see attendance figures at least for the first 2 or 3 months next year to rival the Florida Marlins. Most fans will take a wait-and-see attitude for next year. A new manager would go a long way to changing the expectations. Seems the Braves went after the wrong Florida manager. Look at Joe Maddon and what he is doing with the Rays. Every decision he makes turns to gold. FG is in way over his head and doesn’t have the slightest idea what he is doing. Also, why fire the hitting coach and not include the pitching coach? The failure this year was across the board. Everyone contributed.
ash
October 1st, 2011
1:29 pm
It’s a game people. It is not the end of the world. Deal with it. Obviously a lot of you do not remember the 100 loss seasons we had to endure. Be proud of what the Braves have done. They are my horse even if they dont win a race. Go Braves!!!!!
ash
October 1st, 2011
1:39 pm
Maybe some of you people commenting on here should apply for the manager job. The rest could try out for the team. All of you seem to know so much.
stevie zero
October 1st, 2011
1:40 pm
jeff, you couldnt be more right on. that was the most unacceptable, unforgivable display of gutless tripe ive ever witnessed in 35 years as a braves fan. while il always be a fan, i can honestly say i have no idea when i will begin to pay attention to them again. absolutely disgusted
Tdavis
October 1st, 2011
1:42 pm
we need more power and run production
Gonzalez = Cox Lite
October 1st, 2011
1:55 pm
The problem as I see it is that the organization has been serving the Kool-Aid of how incredible and extraordinary the Bobby Cox era was and how lucky we were to have a team like the Braves for so long. The reality is that Bobby Cox was an excellent strategist but a terrible tactician. He could win the season but usually lose the big games.
The Braves management drank their own Kool-Aid and got us a Bobby Cox simulator. Gonzalez has the same so-what, never call out your players demeanor but not the experience and strategic ability of Bobby so now we have can’t win the season AND can’t win the big game.
Caseyatthebat
October 1st, 2011
2:14 pm
Hey Ash, go on over to O’Briens blog and read about his musicians and music. At
least the fellas on here have an enthusiastic desire to see their team win. A motivated interest in their team and the sport and like talking with other like- minded fellas. You want to play a game, go play monopoly with the kids.
Jimbo
October 1st, 2011
2:28 pm
Fire Fredi, That would be a start.
Bill
October 1st, 2011
2:44 pm
Ash people like you are the problem…”They are my horse even though they don’t win a race,” what a loser attitude. The players and Braves Management must have the same attitude because they don’t ever win the BIG RACE. Oh they never will with that mind set.
Fire Fredi ASP and hire “Terry Francona”. also get “Greg Walkers” as hitting coach.
Klaus
October 1st, 2011
3:00 pm
This team has had issues with the FO and on field mgt for years. The love that Liberty couldnt care less b/c they can screw up left and right with no accountability.
Until McGuirk through FG are given the keys (along with Liberty) the Braves will be a good money after bad team. Translation – every decent piece you toss into this sh_t salad will taste like sh_t.
Klaus
October 1st, 2011
3:04 pm
And to repeat many – Wren grow a pair and hire Francona. It will be the key to you keeping your job.
You have no money for big time free agents, are afraid to trade your young pitching and you know the team under FG is rudderless.
FG makes nothing relative to the players so broom him quick and get Terry. Learn from your mistake and don’t let ego or JS fear of admitting any kind of mistake hold you back.
You add 500K attendees to the turn style with this one move.
Bill
October 1st, 2011
3:23 pm
Where did my blog go?
Rilo
October 1st, 2011
3:25 pm
Jeff,
This is the elephant in the room. Some here are gonna say “you’re not a true fan if you can’t support this team” but that’s not at all what you are saying and I hope people really take this to heart. I will support this team no matter what but I’m not drinking the Kool-Aid any more. This team will have to prove itself to me after what was an epic failure. There is so much blame to go around that if we don’t see some significant changes I will be so disappointed.
Mister Frisky
October 1st, 2011
3:32 pm
Schultzy you are goin yard as usual.This time the goodwill is gone.No way this team comes back even close to intact.If it does there won’t be 10,000 on opening day.Every player under contract needs to be on the table.No one on this team is untouchable in my mind.
Mitchell
October 1st, 2011
4:01 pm
Great hearing Joe Simpson doing color commentary on the Brewers Diamondbacks game.
I just don’t get why they won’t ever let him do the Braves playoff games… oh, wait.
Rilo
October 1st, 2011
4:04 pm
Uggla will be back to normal next year and I think he will get an early start in Spring to make sure of that
McCann will be like he has been but he will need more days of rest
Freeman to continue to progress and hopefully make the adjustments Heyward didn’t (and probably never will)
Prado is a head case and will have a hard time coming out of this (I think its 50/50 whether he recovers. He was on FIRE in 2010 before his hip blew out so I don’t think he is just a utility guy
Heyward-I see a major hitch in his swing and he has lost all confidence. It will take an amazing hitting coach to turn him around but it’s possible (maybe)
Conrad, Hinske, Wilson, Linebrink, Lowe……Done. I don’t expect to see much (if at all) in baseball much longer.
A-Gon needs to go. Bad mojo at the plate and the OBP is just below acceptable (even for an above average defender). Easiest decision other than Mclouth and Kawakami.
Pitching: Other than Linebrink I wouldn’t change a thing.
Need to upgrade at SS and RF while letting Heyward EARN a starting job.
Robert
October 1st, 2011
4:14 pm
As long as the franchise acts as if the purpose for its existance is to provide a batting order for Chipper Jones to hit third in, it isnt going anywhere
Kentavo
October 1st, 2011
4:15 pm
You can blame Fredi, you can blame offense, you can blame Lowe; but when you really get down to it, if Kimbrel closes out three games – vs. STL, vs. FLA and vs. Phillies – Braves get Wildcard.
Kimbrel folded. I say sign an experienced closer (Papplebon or Bell) and move Kimbrel back to set-up where he won’t wet his pants all the time.
Mitchell
October 1st, 2011
4:16 pm
Word, Robert.
Robert
October 1st, 2011
4:17 pm
“Heyward-I see a major hitch in his swing and he has lost all confidence”
Heyward arived in the majors with a nice swing and elite level plate discipline. Then he listened when Boby Cox hee-hawed about him being too patient at the plate. Since then, he’s been slowly unravelling
Heyward should be sent to a hypnotist who should try and erase any memory he has of ever having even met Cox, much less having listened to him
Gman
October 1st, 2011
4:17 pm
Been following Hawks, Braves and Falcons for 30 years. After winning 1 championship in 90 seasons I came to the conclusion long ago that championships are for other cities, other teams, other fans.
The best an Atl fan can hope for is for reasonable entertainment. When I catch myself thinking “this could be the year!” I know I’ve gone too far. It doesn’t happen much anymore.
Mitchell
October 1st, 2011
4:22 pm
Yeah, Craig Kimbrel.
He’s the reason we didn’t make the playoffs.
In fact, if Freddie wins the Rookie of the Year it will be a crime.
Craig Kimbrel is the had the best season for a rookie closer in baseball history. Before him it was probably Papelbon but neither are the first to blow a crucial save in the last game of the season for each club’s respective curse laden histories.
Mitchell
October 1st, 2011
4:23 pm
Craig Kimbrel is the had… Craig Kimbrel had…
What a fool I am.