Georgia will go 9-3 this season, and here’s how

Georgia coach Mark Richt faces a tough start to this season. (Brant Sanderlin/AJC)

(This appears in the AJC’s college football section on Sunday.)

(Click here to read here how and why things spun out of control for Georgia Tech last season)

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Sept. 3, Boise State (Ga. Dome), 8 p.m.

No. 5 Boise State has been outscored 121-40 in its past three games against SEC teams: Georgia (48-13 in 2005), South Carolina (41-14 in 2002) and Arkansas (32-13 in 2001). I like the Broncos anyway. I’m not sure Georgia’s defense has an answer for quarterback Kellen Moore (left), and as terrific as Aaron Murray is, I suspect it will take a little while to get used to life without A.J. Green. The Dogs’ cast of running backs is obviously thin (and Carlton Thomas is suspended for this game). If freshman Isaiah Crowell comes out like a wrecking ball, all bets are off. But I’m betting not.

Prediction: Bulldogs lose.

Sept. 10, South Carolina, 4:30 p.m.

Marcus Lattimore rushed for 182 yards and two touchdowns in the Gamecocks’ 17-6 win over Georgia in Columbia last season. On paper, No. 12 South Carolina should repeat as SEC East champions if Stephen Garcia doesn’t mess things up. But he very well might. The Dogs should be a little more comfortable in Athens than in the Georgia Dome. They’ll also feel a bit desperate after the opening loss to Boise State. The defense steps up just enough, and Murray will make one more play than Garcia in the end.

Prediction: Bulldogs win.

Sept. 17, Coastal Carolina, 1 p.m.

If the Dogs are 0-2 going into this game, Sanford Stadium is going to look like Tombstone, Ariz., post-shootout at the OK Corral. Either way, this one is a gimme. Coastal Carolina is an FCS (formerly Division I-AA) school that plays in a 9,000-seat stadium. The Chanticleers play these games for the paycheck — and to strike fear in their health insurance company.

Prediction: Bulldogs win.

Sept. 24, at Mississippi

The Rebels finished 4-8 last season after going 19-8 in coach Houston Nutt’s first two years, and they’ll be no better this year. Strange, considering the coach annually signs like 7,000 players for 20 spots in recruiting every year. Not much is expected from the Ole Miss defensive front, so this is a good chance for the Dogs’ offensive line and Crowell to get rolling.

Prediction: Bulldogs win.

Oct. 1, Mississippi State

Notwithstanding the losses to South Carolina and Arkansas that preceded it, Georgia’s 2010 season really fell apart with its 24-12 loss in Starkville (its first loss to Mississippi State since 1974). At 0-3 in the SEC, the season was over. That won’t be the case this time. No. 20 MSU lost some guys along the defensive front, and winning in Athens is something they’ve done only twice (1914 and 1956, with Georgia winning nine straight at home since).

Prediction: Bulldogs win.

Oct. 8, at Tennessee

So things are rolling now, right? Four consecutive wins since the loss to Boise State and 3-0 in the SEC? Now comes trouble. I know. It’s Tennessee. But freshman quarterback Tyler Bray won four of his five starts down the stretch (16 touchdowns, seven interceptions), and coach Derek Dooley (left) gets his players to play hard, if not always smart. Mark Richt’s Dogs have been shellacked in their past two trips to Knoxville (combined score: 80-33). And I don’t believe Georgia will win every game it’s supposed to.

Prediction: Bulldogs lose.

Oct. 15, at Vanderbilt

Vandy ranked 110th in the nation in offense last season, and the wonder is that there were 10 teams worse. The Commodores scored 96 points in eight SEC games. Auburn scored 306. But at least Vandy beat Ole Miss. If the Dogs’ defense doesn’t smack Vandy, coordinator Todd Grantham may not want to board the bus afterward.

Prediction: Bulldogs win.

Oct. 29, Florida (Jacksonville), 3:30 p.m.

A game against Vandy and a bye week is about as good a setup as Georgia can have against its annual tormentors. But last year it had Vandy and Kentucky leading into Florida Week and still lost to a Gators team that had lost three straight (including 10-7 at home to Mississippi State). Florida won’t be great this season. But the offensive resume of new assistant Charlie Weis tells us that he’ll probably make something of quarterback John Brantley.

Prediction: Bulldogs lose.

Nov. 5, New Mexico State

Here’s your reach for positive karma. The last time Georgia played New Mexico State was in 2002, when Richt won his first SEC title in Athens. The Aggies are dreadful. They lost games last year by scores of 42-10, 42-16, 59-0, 52-6 and 59-24. Another walkover.

Prediction: Bulldogs win.

Nov. 12, Auburn

That guy at quarterback for No. 23 Auburn is gone. So is half of the defense. All together, 18 starters are gone from the BCS title team. You can’t take anything away from a coach who goes undefeated through the SEC and wins a national championship, but we’re about to find out how good Gene Chizik really is. Expect the Tigers to run the ball a lot with Michael Dyer, but he won’t be enough.

Prediction: Bulldogs win.

Nov. 19, Kentucky

Coach Joker Phillips said, “I expect us to be in the title race longer than we have been.” I’m not sure what that means. Five minutes? But Georgia can’t laugh too much. This used to be one of those automatic wins, but not anymore. The Dogs are only 3-2 in the past five meetings, and there have been way too many chaotic moments against Big Blue.

Prediction: Bulldogs win.

Nov. 26, at Georgia Tech

Since Tech upset Georgia and ripped off pieces of the Sanford Stadium hedges in Paul Johnson’s first season, the Dogs have won the past two meetings. The Jackets probably won’t be as bad this season as some forecast. But it’s difficult to know how far along Tevin Washington and/or Synjyn Days will be at quarterback, and we can be fairly certain Murray will be very good for Georgia.

Prediction: Bulldogs win.