Over/unders on wins: Falcons (10.5), Dogs (8), Jackets (6)
Will Mark Richt and Paul Johnson do better than oddsmakers project? (Brant Sanderlin/AJC)
Matt Ryan has struggled to let go of two defeats in his career. Not surprisingly, both of those were playoff losses.
“The problem is you can’t go out and play the next week,” he said. “But you can’t let it leave you with a hangover forever.”
Not forever. Just until opening week the following season. Football season is nearing and it has been a while since all three major teams in the area were coming off such downers.
The Falcons, following a 13-3 regular season and a bye week, were hammered at home by Green Bay 48-21. Georgia, after the stench of a 6-6 regular season, did something even Bubba Joe Bulldog Boxer Shorts never could’ve envisioned, losing to Central Florida in the Liberty Bowl. Georgia Tech, in the year after an ACC championship, also tumbled to six wins and lost to Air Force in the Independence.
Caution tends to follow humiliation. While the Falcons may have put themselves in the Super Bowl hunt with the signing of Ray Edwards, their projected regular season win total this season is down, partly because of a tougher schedule but also because 13-win regular seasons generally are reserved for teams that don’t lose home playoff games by 27 points.
The over/unders are out for this season. According to the online sportsbook Bodog.com, whose lines generally equate to most in Las Vegas, the over/under on Falcons’ wins this season is 10.5. Georgia is at 8. Georgia Tech: at only 6.
Loading ... Loading ...These totals do not include playoff, bowl or conference championship games. So the projections basically have the Falcons going somewhere between 10-6 and 11-5, Georgia going 8-4 and Tech going on 6-6.
Personal view: The total for the Falcons is on target. Georgia and Tech both are slightly understated. The breakdown:
Loading ...♦ FALCONS (10.5): Go over (or under?): We’re going to find out pretty early about this team. In the first five weeks, the Falcons travel to Chicago, play host to Philadelphia, travel to Tampa Bay, travel to Seattle, then must come back home to play defending Super Bowl champion Green Bay on a Sunday night. If they can come out of that 4-1, most people would be ecstatic.
Here’s how I break it down. The Falcons will go 4-2 within the division (sweeping Carolina, splitting with New Orleans and Tampa). I’m giving them home wins over Tennessee and Jacksonville and road wins at Seattle, Detroit and Houston. That’s 9-2, leaving five difficult games: home against Philadelphia, Green Bay and Minnesota, and road at Chicago and at Indianapolis. With three of those games in the Georgia Dome, they’ll certainly go no worse than 2-3, which would leave them 11-5.
♦ GEORGIA (8): Go over ( I think). Once the Bulldogs get past Boise State and South Carolina, they fall into one of their easiest schedules in years. They avoid Alabama, LSU and Arkansas from the West. The rest of the schedule is stacked with easily winnable games (save maybe that one in Jacksonville): Coastal Carolina, at Mississippi, Mississippi State, at Tennessee, at Vanderbilt, Florida, New Mexico State, Auburn, Kentucky, at Georgia Tech.
I know. Last season, nobody would’ve expected such a complete program unraveling, an early season-smothering, four-game losing streak, and defeats to Mississippi State, Colorado and Central Florida. But where are the losses here? One or two early. Maybe Florida. Maybe Georgia Tech for rivalry sake. Auburn and Tennessee aren’t any good. Mississippi State is decent but it’s hard to imagine Georgia losing to them two years in a row (this time in Athens). I’m going 9-3. (My complete game-by-game Georgia breakdown will be coming in the AJC’s football section on Aug. 28.)
♦ GEORGIA TECH (6): Go over (I’m sure. I think). For every Georgia fan who wonders, “How do you lose to Colorado?” there’s a Tech fan asking, “How do you lose to Kansas?” The Jackets should — should — mow through the first three games (Western Carolina, at Middle Tennessee State, Kansas ). Florida State is not on the schedule but there’s a difficult stretch in the middle: at Miami, Clemson, Virginia Tech. But the rest of the ACC really isn’t that good. The Jackets also have 16 days between the Virginia Tech and Georgia games, with only Duke in the middle.
Tech has lost a lot of talent in the last two years but coach Paul Johnson seems to enjoy being around this team more and expects better leadership. I’m going 8-4 on the Jackets with four losses coming among six opponents: North Carolina State, Virginia, Miami, Clemson, Virginia Tech, Georgia.
See. That was easy. What could possibly go wrong?
By Jeff Schultz
♦
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235 comments Add your comment
A Hit...
August 5th, 2011
12:13 am
Eagles crush the Falcons in Week two on NBC and that will cause a downward spiral effect..
8-8,7-9..
Expect Mike Mularkey to be shown the door @ the end of the season..
Kick rocks Mularkey…
Their window of opportunity has slammed shut! They blew it big time last season….
willy
August 5th, 2011
5:35 am
Stop complaining about the Liberty Bowl – UCF was 11-3 last year, ranked 22nd. They were a better team than Georgia.
willy
August 5th, 2011
5:35 am
M’kay?
Thomas Brown
August 5th, 2011
5:39 am
8 games ? What kind of junk is that ?
# 121 Coastal Carolina
# 54 Ole Miss
# 31 Missy State
# 49 vols
# 100 Vandie
# 120 New Mexico State
# 63 Kentucky
# 65 Georgia tek
Try, go ahead and try, to name 1 of those games we are supposed to Lose?
No Doubt
August 5th, 2011
7:51 am
Falcons win 11
GT wins 9
UGA wins 7
No Doubt
August 5th, 2011
7:53 am
Thomas….UGA will lose to FL, AU, MSU, Tenn and GT.
Buckeye
August 5th, 2011
8:04 am
If the dogs start at # 22 and go 0-2 out of the gate (likely) you will be our of the top 25 before mid September!
TIME OUT
TIME OUT
TIME OUT
Matt "CHOKE" Ryan
August 5th, 2011
8:51 am
It doesn’t matter if the Falcants go 16-0 in the regular season, in the 1st round they will be making their usual exit to watch the playoffs in Grand Ma’s living room
In the end Mike Vick will be the recipient of both MVP trophies
With CHOKE the Falcants have no HOPE
NEUTER THE POODLE WITH THE ARM MADE OF NOODLE
JMac12203
August 5th, 2011
9:00 am
The losses come with Boise, S. Carolina, Florida, Missy St., Auburn, and at least one game they are not supposed to lose(this happens every year)which would be either Tennessee or Kentucky or GT. One of those 3 will pull off the upset; happens every year! 7-5 will be a great season, and 8-4 would be cause for celebration. Oh, and by the way, last season, I did correctly pick UGA loser to S. Carolina, Colorado, Missy St, Florida, and the big one… I correctly picked UCF to win the bowl game, so, yes, I do know a little about football.
JMac12203
August 5th, 2011
9:04 am
As far as Tech goes, I would think they should be able to win at least 7 games this season. I think the Kansas game will be, just like last season, the game that defines the season.
With the strike, I have not even begun to look at the Falcons, but I my early impressions are that a 12 or 13 win season is within reach.
Matt "CHOKE" Ryan
August 5th, 2011
9:04 am
Why hasn’t the 2nd coming of Peyton Manning received a contract extension yet?
Lets see if the Falcants pay him like Peyton
If he was a team player he would have reconstructed his contract so the team could attract more veterans to the team.
I mean Josh Freeman is getting one this season
Matt "CHOKE" Ryan
August 5th, 2011
9:06 am
Since 2004 since the Falcons won a playoff game.
What a leader
Matt "CHOKE" Ryan
August 5th, 2011
9:07 am
That should have read:
2004 was the last time the Falcons won a playoff game, but you get the picture girls
bucket
August 5th, 2011
9:13 am
As bad as I hate to admit it, the only safe bet I see is Tech going over 6. The Falcons @ 10.5 and the Dawgs @ 8 is probably about right. I am hopeful for the Dawgs because of Richt’s record with a returning starter @ QB and the D has a year under their belt with Grantham and 2 legitimate NT’s in Jenkins and Geathers. I guess we’ll just see what we see!
D man
August 5th, 2011
9:14 am
Falcons over 12-4, Dawgs even and tech even.
Native to the ATL
August 5th, 2011
9:51 am
Falcons win 11 make playoffs, Pig Farmers right the ship and win all but Florida game. My boys on North Ave lose to Va Tech and one other to be named later……Go Jackets!
SeenThisB4
August 5th, 2011
10:37 am
The falcan’ts will be under 9 this year. No run game.
Tide Rising
August 5th, 2011
11:40 am
Jeff,
I think you’re spot on all 3 picks. In regards to Missy State though I think they are a little better than just “decent”. They went 9-4 and their 4 losses were to AU, Bama, LSU, and Ark. No shame in losing to 4 pretty good teams as 3 of those 4 finished top 10 and Ark finished 14th. They are better than you think and that game is a certain loss for the dogs barring MSU just giving the game away.
Elvis the Falcon Fan
August 5th, 2011
12:36 pm
Falcons win 10 and miss the playoffs….sorry, guys Philly locked up the NFC championship before the start of the season. Look for the heat to finally get to Mike (sideline route) Mularky and he will be gone at seasons’ end. I am just NOT sold on Turner. Snelling needs more carries, maybe even Ovie should get more touches. Yeah, Yeah Yeah, I know we got ourselves a new WR, but he is a rookie. The play-calling last year was way way way too predictable, 3rd and 5 we throw to Roddy on a 8 yard out route to the sideline. 2nd and whatever, TG over the middle. First and 10 or first and goal, Turner up the gut for a loss……we’ll see, special teams, Koenen is gone…why? Defense needs to learn that getting a sack means you have to play contain first.
2010 National Champs
August 5th, 2011
1:23 pm
I love how Jenkins is an automatic game changer at DT. He was not in for Spring and he is supposed to come in and change everything? Nick Fairley came in during fall and was a back up behind two guys who didnt even get drafted. It took him a year to fully realize his potential.
But hey its UGA where all the replacements are always upgrades despite reality. Mean while Auburn loses players and its a downgrade despite two back to back top 5 classes. Both classes higher ranked then UGAs. Lets not let reality get in the way of dawg logc.
Auburn will be young but not that young when November rolls around.
Atlanta87
August 5th, 2011
3:14 pm
Jeff, You are easily the least competent sports writer for the AJC. I read your stuff just when I need a good laugh or I print it out and take the paper to the restroom after I eat some Mexican and…well you get the idea.
THE MAJOR
August 5th, 2011
3:16 pm
HEY SCHULTZIE I will take your Auburn bet right now. Since you don’t think Auburn is any good I will take Auburn and the 13 you are obviously giving since they aren’t any good. Name the bet big boy!
Atlanta87
August 5th, 2011
3:41 pm
I want in on that too. Put your money where your article is. Or something like that
1Jacket7
August 5th, 2011
3:55 pm
Tech will win more games this year than UGA. Count on it. As all of you know. Tech should not have lost the last two years to UGA. When they get their heads on straight which I believe will be this year. They will start to win the games they are supposed to and that translates into a 10-2 season or better.
Jonkdawg
August 6th, 2011
11:28 am
Mr Jeff Shultz! you think you know all the wins and my Uga will win 8 games? I don’t think so your guessing is wrong and still wrong Mr shultz,
THE BIG R
August 6th, 2011
11:00 pm
FALCONS SCHEDULE IS BRUTAL, ESPECIALLY FIRST 7 GAMES. I WOULD TAKE 5-2 RIGHT NOW BUT 4-3 IS A GOOD POSSIBILITY, I SAY 9-7 AND THE TEAM COULD BE ACTUALLY BETTER THAN LAST YEAR? GEORGIA AFTER FIRST TWO GAMES IS SOFT, WIN BOTH AND THEY COULD ONLY LOSE ONE GAME. I SAY THEY SPLIT FIRST TWO AND GO 9-3. TECH MAY NOT HAVE THE TALENT IN YEARS PAST, BUT ACC OVERALL IS DOWN. 8-4 AND 7-5 AT THE WORST
Waynesboro
August 7th, 2011
11:24 am
Yech plays in the weakest football conference in college football and Vegas still doesn’t think they can win more than half their games? So much for Johnson the savior. What an embarrassment to the fine state of Georgia.
hahahahha!!!!!!
August 7th, 2011
11:29 am
1Jacket7
Tech fans are the most delusional fan base in all of sports. You are down nealry a quarter century in head to head wins against your masters from Athens yet still have the nerve to say they shouldn’t have lost? Seriously? You should be on your knees thanking the refs still for the two giftwrapped “victories” against the dogs in the 90’s for their horrible officiating and also thanking the NCAA for considering the 3 victories from decades past as legit(first game between the two schools and the two games during WWII) where Tech played with non-Tech athletes as. Otherwises UGA’s win margin would be closer to 30.
The Gator
August 7th, 2011
9:46 pm
hahahahah it’s your master from a real SEC team. How’s it going to feel starting 0-2 this year? Don’t worry I’m sure you guys can beat Coastal Carolina
gt11
August 7th, 2011
11:39 pm
I personally don’t think Tech should have lost the past 2. At the most 1. It seems to me that they were only a couple of crazy plays away from winning both games (#1 receiver in the draft overall drops a pass on 4th down, then in 2010 a fumble inside the 10 and UGA recovers a different fumble while semi-out-of-bounds). However the same can be said the other way, UGA had some bad plays that could have cost them the game too. Either way, you’re looking at two extremely close games in which neither team dominated, just got unlucky at different times… To be honest, no team since 2008 (in my opinion) has separated itself from the other as being significantly “better”.
Techie
August 8th, 2011
4:38 pm
I’ll give Georgia 8 wins. I think they could get 9, but I doubt it without AJ Green. I’ll lean towards the over but it’s close.
Tech, I’m sad to say should be thrilled with 7 wins. I think the talent is there but they are all freshmen. No defense either, and it doesn’t help that Georgia is competing (not much of a competition sadly) for the 3-4 style players. I think with the weak ACC, 6 wins is a solid push.
For the Falcons, I think they’ll win 11. The schedule is pretty rough this year. I’ll agree with Jeff on the division, and the easy games. I’ll go a step farther and say we will drop Philly (always do) and Green Bay (defense won’t contain Rodgers). I think Chicago and Minnesota should be wins. That puts us at 11-4, leaving us with Indy. That game will be a shootout, because the Falcons are too overpowering on offense and Peyton will pick apart our defense. Could go wither way.
yellow britches
August 9th, 2011
5:12 pm
I think GT will score enough to win most games. Clemson, VT and Georgia will test the offense especially the running game. I know every play is a running play. My concern is again our defense. Surely it has to be better than last year. However, if we can’t put pressure on the quarterback we will get picked apart because our corners and safetys are just not fast enough.
MT
August 9th, 2011
7:44 pm
Georgia kicks Florida’s butt in Jax. 3 for 21 is over.Muschamp is not Spurrier neither Crier.
Dawgs will not lose to a turncoat led Gator team.
Ron Smith
August 10th, 2011
1:32 pm
Falcons 10-6
UGA 6-6
GT Who cares?
aprilglaspie
August 11th, 2011
11:38 am
Right. And nobody would have predicted witting AJ down to tour games. Best player in the country. Wow. That had no effect.