Over/unders on wins: Falcons (10.5), Dogs (8), Jackets (6)
Will Mark Richt and Paul Johnson do better than oddsmakers project? (Brant Sanderlin/AJC)
Matt Ryan has struggled to let go of two defeats in his career. Not surprisingly, both of those were playoff losses.
“The problem is you can’t go out and play the next week,” he said. “But you can’t let it leave you with a hangover forever.”
Not forever. Just until opening week the following season. Football season is nearing and it has been a while since all three major teams in the area were coming off such downers.
The Falcons, following a 13-3 regular season and a bye week, were hammered at home by Green Bay 48-21. Georgia, after the stench of a 6-6 regular season, did something even Bubba Joe Bulldog Boxer Shorts never could’ve envisioned, losing to Central Florida in the Liberty Bowl. Georgia Tech, in the year after an ACC championship, also tumbled to six wins and lost to Air Force in the Independence.
Caution tends to follow humiliation. While the Falcons may have put themselves in the Super Bowl hunt with the signing of Ray Edwards, their projected regular season win total this season is down, partly because of a tougher schedule but also because 13-win regular seasons generally are reserved for teams that don’t lose home playoff games by 27 points.
The over/unders are out for this season. According to the online sportsbook Bodog.com, whose lines generally equate to most in Las Vegas, the over/under on Falcons’ wins this season is 10.5. Georgia is at 8. Georgia Tech: at only 6.
Loading ... Loading ...These totals do not include playoff, bowl or conference championship games. So the projections basically have the Falcons going somewhere between 10-6 and 11-5, Georgia going 8-4 and Tech going on 6-6.
Personal view: The total for the Falcons is on target. Georgia and Tech both are slightly understated. The breakdown:
Loading ...♦ FALCONS (10.5): Go over (or under?): We’re going to find out pretty early about this team. In the first five weeks, the Falcons travel to Chicago, play host to Philadelphia, travel to Tampa Bay, travel to Seattle, then must come back home to play defending Super Bowl champion Green Bay on a Sunday night. If they can come out of that 4-1, most people would be ecstatic.
Here’s how I break it down. The Falcons will go 4-2 within the division (sweeping Carolina, splitting with New Orleans and Tampa). I’m giving them home wins over Tennessee and Jacksonville and road wins at Seattle, Detroit and Houston. That’s 9-2, leaving five difficult games: home against Philadelphia, Green Bay and Minnesota, and road at Chicago and at Indianapolis. With three of those games in the Georgia Dome, they’ll certainly go no worse than 2-3, which would leave them 11-5.
♦ GEORGIA (8): Go over ( I think). Once the Bulldogs get past Boise State and South Carolina, they fall into one of their easiest schedules in years. They avoid Alabama, LSU and Arkansas from the West. The rest of the schedule is stacked with easily winnable games (save maybe that one in Jacksonville): Coastal Carolina, at Mississippi, Mississippi State, at Tennessee, at Vanderbilt, Florida, New Mexico State, Auburn, Kentucky, at Georgia Tech.
I know. Last season, nobody would’ve expected such a complete program unraveling, an early season-smothering, four-game losing streak, and defeats to Mississippi State, Colorado and Central Florida. But where are the losses here? One or two early. Maybe Florida. Maybe Georgia Tech for rivalry sake. Auburn and Tennessee aren’t any good. Mississippi State is decent but it’s hard to imagine Georgia losing to them two years in a row (this time in Athens). I’m going 9-3. (My complete game-by-game Georgia breakdown will be coming in the AJC’s football section on Aug. 28.)
♦ GEORGIA TECH (6): Go over (I’m sure. I think). For every Georgia fan who wonders, “How do you lose to Colorado?” there’s a Tech fan asking, “How do you lose to Kansas?” The Jackets should — should — mow through the first three games (Western Carolina, at Middle Tennessee State, Kansas ). Florida State is not on the schedule but there’s a difficult stretch in the middle: at Miami, Clemson, Virginia Tech. But the rest of the ACC really isn’t that good. The Jackets also have 16 days between the Virginia Tech and Georgia games, with only Duke in the middle.
Tech has lost a lot of talent in the last two years but coach Paul Johnson seems to enjoy being around this team more and expects better leadership. I’m going 8-4 on the Jackets with four losses coming among six opponents: North Carolina State, Virginia, Miami, Clemson, Virginia Tech, Georgia.
See. That was easy. What could possibly go wrong?
By Jeff Schultz
♦
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235 comments Add your comment
Boise in ATL
August 4th, 2011
3:39 pm
dave – mainly a college football fan – and root for Boise State. NFL – I am now following the Falcons – but Denver and SF are my favorites.
Falcons – think 10 to 11 wins is very realistic – probably 11 wins
Bronco’s and 49′rs – well, there is always 2012!
JB
August 4th, 2011
3:39 pm
Been out all day. What’s happening? I ‘ve been at the courthouse. I thought the Tech Legal briefings were today.
gdawginkalamazoo
August 4th, 2011
3:41 pm
Boise in ATL, the 2:39 post. Right that’s the way it works, so sorry you guys can’t win this one. I know it’s pretty damn weird how it works. I am just glad that we don’t play Miami of Ohio this year, or Navy or Maryland, and definitely not Boston College.
JB
August 4th, 2011
3:42 pm
Vegas giving the Dawgs some love…..And I’ll take notice when THEY do. They have us and Boise tight………and that’s not good news for Boise.
PerimeterCenterJacket
August 4th, 2011
3:44 pm
DawginLex, you make the most reasonable assertions I’ve seen yet about UGAvBSU from a dawg fan. I’m forever White and Gold, but I think you’re right. Take Georgia over Boise but don’t expect a blowout. VT really seemed to be playing right there with them last season, and it’s probably not the same Boise team. That’s my head, but where’s my heart? Well, as always I’ll want my calf fattened for the slaughter as they say…I likes my November opponents ranked in the Top 5.
George Stein
August 4th, 2011
3:44 pm
Tech is the best bet for over if only because the win total is the lowest of the three.
I expect the Falcons to also be over.
UGA is the toughest call. My gut says over because I expect the defense to improve. But how many games was the defense responsible for losing last year? If we analyze their losses, it the offense that lost several of the games. Turnovers, particularly fumbles, are largely random. I expect some of those issues not to happen again this year. Go over, but it’s close.
ARdawg
August 4th, 2011
3:48 pm
Boise in ATL
Referencing the history logic, I agree. But you are attempting then the same history logic in your references to Boise ST’s game last year and there is no relevance. You had to come from behind to beat VT. Who lost the Div II school James Madison the next week. Claim that victory solid and stellar if you wish but VT was a very bad team last year. Not even resembling them of years past. The ACC has been the weakest of the BCS conferences for a number of years now. There’s just not much there to hook your wagon to.
14 starters from last year? That’s not a lot when you think about it and your guys lost some good talent. It could be argued, “the” talent other than Moore. I like your smug confidence but, I think you are in for a lesson on history but, more so tradition, strength, speed and depth.
I say it’s a fairly close in the 1st half but in the 3rd, perhaps late the Dawgs get firm control on to a clear victory
PerimeterCenterJacket
August 4th, 2011
3:53 pm
My assessment of Tech (why take the OVER without a doubt): experience at D-line, talent and experience at LB, and young talent (knock is experience) at DB; schedule with built-in ramp up to ACC games with rivals at home; projected improvement in pass efficiency (I have myriad reasons to be convinced of this, but suffice it to say WR development is the most sure-fire bet.) I see 5 “gimme” wins on the schedule if we field the 2010 team. With improvement at these listed position groups, I expect 2-3 more W’s than the 5 gimmes.
That’s my 2 cents.
PMC
August 4th, 2011
3:54 pm
Teams that are 60-5 since thier coach was hired generally have a right to be cocky. They have after all won quite a few more relevant games than Georgia the last few years.
What ever happened to Juice Newton?
August 4th, 2011
4:00 pm
Big East doesn’t even have a team in the coaches poll top 25 but they receive an automatic BCS bid?
reckingball
August 4th, 2011
4:09 pm
Falcons 12-4 in 2011.
JB
August 4th, 2011
4:13 pm
From that bowl embarrassment last year to being ranked in the top 25 is a HUGE turn around, games played or not. I bet I know someone who noticed that today. Peterson at Boise.
dawg tired
August 4th, 2011
4:15 pm
What is the over/under that Coach Richt is in Honduras the first Saturday in September 2012?
Boise in ATL
August 4th, 2011
4:20 pm
DawginLex – I hear what you are saying – and the VT game was a nailbiter. Boise could have easily lost that game after VT woke up. Boise jumped out early. It looked as if VT was going to win – but Boise is relentless and will find a way if the game is close at the end. We won – that’s all that matters.
I do not recall making predictions of a Boise blow out over UGA. However, I am predicting Boise to win the game based on UGA of 2010 and the fact that UGA has so many areas of the game to address – your OL, RB’s and WR’s – new DL and LB’s.
Yes, I think UGA will be much improved and will get even better as the season progresses. However, starting off against Boise and UCSe – when UGA is trying to develop offensive consistency with your oLine issues, RB issues, and new WR’s – is a huge challenge. Your Defense will have to be stellar in order for UGA to win the first two games because I am not buying that your offense will be totally clicking early.
The Boise offense is in better position to click from the get go. Yes, you are correct we lost 2 very good WR’s – but our next guys are ready and very talented as well. Probably better than Marlon Brown – your #2 WR.
If this game opens up – you have to question if the UGA offense can keep pace and not make mistakes.
Addressing your remarks on UGA’s superior size and speed. Yep – no doubt.
Oklahoma, Oregon (twice) and VT boasted the same thing and I think all of these teams would have handled UGA over the last two years.
Having this game early – works very much in Boise’s favor. Give Caoch Peterson time to prepare – we will have an offensive game plan against your 3/4. Our defense will keep pace as well. But the big thing in Boise’s favor is that we are very disciplined and play as a team – something that has not been seen coming out of Athens the last few years. If this game was later on in the season – I would be more nervous about this game than I am now as that would really favor UGA.
If UGA wins – it will be because of Richt and staff have done an unbelievable job in correcting a lot of issues in the program – and the team has come together quickly. If UGA is not mid season ready – then Boise will win.
Jackets 2011
August 4th, 2011
4:32 pm
Juice is my wife.
And I juice her every day.
(Couldn’t resist)
Jackets 2011
August 4th, 2011
4:34 pm
Richt has the confident look of someone with 20 million in the bank.
And more coming, win or lose.
Boise in ATL
August 4th, 2011
4:48 pm
AR Dawg – VT won the ACC – beat FSU -which totally destroyed Florida and South Carolina.
However – and to your point – this was all LAST year – and in college football – teams can improve or implode pretty quickly based on who they lost and what they have to replace.
To your point – 14 starters returning means we lost 7 starters total – the key is that we do have very good depth and we have our QB returning. Kellen Moore returning is key for us. If we lost Kellen Moore – then UGA would be favored- no doubt.
Also key – this is the first game of the season – and UGA has a lot to address on offense. I am not buying that Bobo will have the offense in mid-season form the first game of the season. OLine issues, RB issues (although I like the fact that R. Samuel is an incredible team player), new WR’s to replace Green and Durham. I think it will take several games for the offense to come into their own – this is big for Boise and to our advantage. We are catching UGA at the best time of the season – at least from our perspective.
If this game was midseason – and Boise could not approach this game like a bowl game with all the time in the world to prepare – yes, I would concerned. I think UGA will mprove as the season progresses.
Am I concerned now??? you bet – but we have opened against Oregon and VT in back to back years and won both. Oregon went to the Rose Bowl – and VT won the ACC and went to a BCS bowl. I think both of these teams would have beaten UGA the last two years – and probably have beaten Colorado and UCF as well. Neither of these games were easy – but we won both.
If we were opening against Alabama or LSU – I would think Boise would be in too deep – however, we are opening against the reigning #8/#9 SEC team . and catching them early when they need some games to under their belts to get it going.
Again – If UGA is not mid season ready – the Boise will win.
P_The_Ricker
August 4th, 2011
4:48 pm
Boise in ATL,
You have noticed that the line opened-up in early summer at BSU -4.5, but now the game is only BSU -1, right?
The bulk of your comments are validated; however, there was obviously a lot of early money placed on UGA for vegas to make such a huge swing in the line……before even fall camp begins.
This game and surrounding climate are truly resembling the classic early season upset of 2 nationally respected/ranked teams.
Dr. Warren
August 4th, 2011
4:53 pm
Falcons will go 11-5. Let’s hope that gets them into the playoffs.
ugaclassof2004
August 4th, 2011
5:12 pm
Falcons: 11-5
Dawgs: Push at 8 wins
Tech: Under 6 wins
macrotech
August 4th, 2011
5:14 pm
Wow! It just occurred to me that I am PERFECTLY fine with mutt fans hating us Tech fans! Please, understand that I enjoy great friendships with a number of Dawg fans and have tremendous respect them for the people of success that they are. However, mutt fans are a different breed…why WOULDN’T the poor hate the wealthy?! Hate away…it’s ALMOST cute!!!
Bill
August 4th, 2011
5:15 pm
Hard to win 8 games without a running back. Just think what will happen if their freshman running back is injured. They will do good to win 7.
Tossed Salad
August 4th, 2011
5:28 pm
6-6 for Tech sounds dead on.
Boise in ATL
August 4th, 2011
5:36 pm
P_The_Ricker – Yes the odds are evening up. What is the saying – give the home team 3 points?
Believe, we are extremely grateful to be playing UGA in the Kick-off classic. Boise’s program has come a long way – but finding games against the tradional elites is hard – so thanks to UGA athletic director and Coach Richt for playing Boise.
This is ALMOST a No win situation for UGA – you beat us – it’s because you are supposed to and someone put Boise in their proper place. If UGA loses – then it’s embarrasing to the program and the UGA fans out there. I say ALMOST because I read that Coach Richt said that UGA needs this game to get back to national relevence.
Programs cycle – UGA has bottomed out – and will be much improved – and I think that as the season progresses – UGA could possibly develop into a monster – much like 2008 season when they lost early – then was probably the best team by seasons end and spanked Hawaii.
I really like the fact that Richt has changed up the defense staff – changed S&C – and have shown players the door. Losing your to RB’s from last year is no loss for the UGA program with the exception of an immediate depth problem experience wise. But that will fix itself as the season progresses.
Hey – living in Atlanta – I follow the SEC and ACC very closely – and root for UGA to win the SEC. The SEC is king – just incredible depth of Big time football schools. For some reason – I can not find myself rooting for Clemson or South Carolina. The rest of the SEC is great to watch.
QUESTION TO SEC FANS:
If the SEC picks up TEXAS A&M for the WEST.
Who would you prefer to pick up in the SEC EAST?
Clemson seems like a great fit for USCe and UGA/TN, etc.
GT seems like a great fit – heart of SEC country – and how cool would it be to see Auburn/Florida/LSU/TN/ALABAMA/USCe playing at GT.
VT seems to have an SEC mentality about them
FSU seems like a great choice as well
Who would be the best team to expand the SEC East?
phil g
August 4th, 2011
5:45 pm
Yea, go ahead and dismiss Tennessee…that worked out real well the last time the Dogs went up to Knoxville.
frannie mae
August 4th, 2011
5:54 pm
UGA is in BIG BIG trouble!…….
Najeh Davenpoop
August 4th, 2011
5:59 pm
10 wins for the Falcons, so I am going under.
College football… don’t know or really care.
RamboDog
August 4th, 2011
6:08 pm
Bodda Getta
August 4th, 2011
1:39 pm
You are an IDIOT… and a cheater, too…NCAA is coming soon, wait on it, wait on it…..”Death Penalty!!”
Tell your girlfriend to get the cows in, it’s almost milking time.
skip
August 4th, 2011
6:16 pm
Hope I’m wrong, but I’ll take the under on all three. The Dawgs can’t replace A.J. and who knows how the running game is going to pan out. Tech can’t replace Nesbett and their defense is still going to suck. Not sure how much the Falcs really improved the team even with the addition of Edwards and Jones. We’ll see.
Von
August 4th, 2011
7:38 pm
Say what? Falcons 9-7 at best. 4-1 the first five games….yeah right. Possible 3-2 with a little luck. Also, your definitely over looking Seattle, Houston and especially Detroit. Remember, the Falcons have done nothing to upgrade their secondary, the weakest area last year. Also, they have no depth at running back, yet again. Splitting against the Saints and Bucs? No sir. I know everybody hates the Saints but man look at the depth they have at the running back position and now defensive line. The Buc’s didn’t do much in free agency with money to spend, but we’ve seen how young and competitive they were last year. they didn’t upgrade because they don’t need to. Keep it real folks….Last year was the Falcons best opportunity. Now, they’ll just end up in the middle of the pack.
Wagtheworld.com » Over/unders on wins: Falcons (10.5), Dogs (8), Jackets (6) – Atlanta Journal Constitution (blog)
August 4th, 2011
8:07 pm
[...] Atlanta Journal Constitution (blog) [...]
De-Stinger
August 4th, 2011
8:13 pm
Dawgs go 10-2. Tech goes 6-6.
Over/unders on wins: Falcons (10.5), Dogs (8), Jackets (6) – Atlanta Journal Constitution (blog) | Dog Shop Blog
August 4th, 2011
8:26 pm
[...] webmaster@technorati.com wrote an interesting post today onHere’s a quick excerpt [...]
dawgfan
August 4th, 2011
8:42 pm
Georgia: 9-3
-I’ll see where the wins come from before I claim some miraculous resurgence.
Tech: 8-4
-Sadly, this is enough for Tech fans. They’ll be talking about how they shocked the world because everybody picked them to go 6-6. They’ll lose to Georgia (again) but it won’t matter (it never does) because there will be bigger fish to fry or they will claim a moral victory. Then they’ll get humiliated in their low rent bowl game. Same ole same ole.
Falcons 10-6
-the schedule was a joke last year.
Thanks.
dale morphy
August 4th, 2011
8:44 pm
Georgia only beats teams they can overwhelm with talent. The staff consistently fails to coach up their talent. Richt cannot beat Florida. Losses to Boise State, South Carolina, Mississippi St., Tennessee, Florida, Auburn. If the Dawgs slip up against Ole Miss or Kentucky or Tech, there will be a new head coach in Athens.
Zach
August 4th, 2011
8:56 pm
6 for tech is a joke. they can do that in their sleep. they dont get the ncaa ruling and how that will impact the team and coach. they will win at least 9 and maybe 10.
Brix
August 4th, 2011
9:05 pm
tech 9
ga 8
atl 10
dawgfan
August 4th, 2011
9:18 pm
What’s a joke is Tech’s schedule and the ACC. A pack of drunk monkeys could go 6-6 on Tech’s schedule.
8-4 for the Joke By Coke. They’ll make rings, score a big moral victory over Georgia, and lose their seventh….that’s right sports fans SEVENTH bowl game in a row. Nevertheless, Techies will act like they won the Super Bowl and will ask Paul Johnson to have their babies. Same ole same ole.
Thanks.
Class of 93
August 4th, 2011
10:08 pm
Jeff you failed to mention that the over for Georgia is -180. I’m sure you know but that means you have to risk $180 to win $100. Also, good luck getting a payback from them now (they have changed bodog.com to bodog.eu they are being watched).
Cobb Dawg
August 4th, 2011
10:12 pm
West Guy, any time a fan says “book it” after a prediction, my opinion of their intelligence level falls like the stock market did today.
J
August 4th, 2011
10:13 pm
Guys
Plain and simple. Georgia could only muster 6 points vs Central Florida. What makes you believe they can beat Boise , S Carolina , Miss st , Tenn. Must I go any further ! This Program is is deep deep water. 0-2 start count on it. This time next year Mark Richt will still be in Hondorous……
Class of 93
August 4th, 2011
10:24 pm
Take out a second mortgage, cash out the 401K and college fund, fly to Vegas and take GA even or minus whatever agaisnt Boise.
deadawg
August 4th, 2011
10:29 pm
Dawgs won’t field a team against Boise State—-they will all be in the Clark County Jail. Hail Jan Kemp— a real American Hero. Red panties falling from the sky!
Mutts get disqualifiedthe first 4 games lose the rest and get waxed by the Jackets and end up closing tdown their football program. Mark Richt becomes a Muslim.
deadawg
August 4th, 2011
10:30 pm
Class of 93———–You need to be inside an insane asylum—-NOW
Jim Harrick Here
August 4th, 2011
10:32 pm
Hey, Why did you leave me out—I did the dopspits right didn’t I. Basketball 101—Gotta love my tests!!
aarh
August 4th, 2011
10:36 pm
Now lookie here- Nobody know how good or bad AU will be. When FL. won a championship w/ Chris Leak at QB…people acted as if Tebow would just step right in & nobody would be able to beat them, but they went on to lose about 4 or 5 games that yr. AU could turn out to be better than people think. Just bc they won a championship last yr. doesn’t gaurantee anything for this yr. though. A lot of teams that win it all suffer a drop off the nest season…even teams that return most of their players, & are considered a sure thing, & of course we know w/ AU, that that’s not the case.
junkyardman
August 4th, 2011
10:36 pm
Deadawg and Jim,
You are mean people======unfortunately you have touched on all our faults.
Our program could not be any lower (i don’t think) than it is right now.
I never wear my Dawg stuff out—-just hoping for some sign of improvement.
sad sad
PJ
August 4th, 2011
11:12 pm
PJ ate a box of donuts
junkyardman
August 4th, 2011
11:26 pm
MR is going to Florida State as a QB coach after this year,
Junky
August 4th, 2011
11:27 pm
Jan Kemp is my Hero. Jim Harrick is a genius. Red Panties fly high!!