Over/unders on wins: Falcons (10.5), Dogs (8), Jackets (6)
Will Mark Richt and Paul Johnson do better than oddsmakers project? (Brant Sanderlin/AJC)
Matt Ryan has struggled to let go of two defeats in his career. Not surprisingly, both of those were playoff losses.
“The problem is you can’t go out and play the next week,” he said. “But you can’t let it leave you with a hangover forever.”
Not forever. Just until opening week the following season. Football season is nearing and it has been a while since all three major teams in the area were coming off such downers.
The Falcons, following a 13-3 regular season and a bye week, were hammered at home by Green Bay 48-21. Georgia, after the stench of a 6-6 regular season, did something even Bubba Joe Bulldog Boxer Shorts never could’ve envisioned, losing to Central Florida in the Liberty Bowl. Georgia Tech, in the year after an ACC championship, also tumbled to six wins and lost to Air Force in the Independence.
Caution tends to follow humiliation. While the Falcons may have put themselves in the Super Bowl hunt with the signing of Ray Edwards, their projected regular season win total this season is down, partly because of a tougher schedule but also because 13-win regular seasons generally are reserved for teams that don’t lose home playoff games by 27 points.
The over/unders are out for this season. According to the online sportsbook Bodog.com, whose lines generally equate to most in Las Vegas, the over/under on Falcons’ wins this season is 10.5. Georgia is at 8. Georgia Tech: at only 6.
Loading ... Loading ...These totals do not include playoff, bowl or conference championship games. So the projections basically have the Falcons going somewhere between 10-6 and 11-5, Georgia going 8-4 and Tech going on 6-6.
Personal view: The total for the Falcons is on target. Georgia and Tech both are slightly understated. The breakdown:
Loading ...♦ FALCONS (10.5): Go over (or under?): We’re going to find out pretty early about this team. In the first five weeks, the Falcons travel to Chicago, play host to Philadelphia, travel to Tampa Bay, travel to Seattle, then must come back home to play defending Super Bowl champion Green Bay on a Sunday night. If they can come out of that 4-1, most people would be ecstatic.
Here’s how I break it down. The Falcons will go 4-2 within the division (sweeping Carolina, splitting with New Orleans and Tampa). I’m giving them home wins over Tennessee and Jacksonville and road wins at Seattle, Detroit and Houston. That’s 9-2, leaving five difficult games: home against Philadelphia, Green Bay and Minnesota, and road at Chicago and at Indianapolis. With three of those games in the Georgia Dome, they’ll certainly go no worse than 2-3, which would leave them 11-5.
♦ GEORGIA (8): Go over ( I think). Once the Bulldogs get past Boise State and South Carolina, they fall into one of their easiest schedules in years. They avoid Alabama, LSU and Arkansas from the West. The rest of the schedule is stacked with easily winnable games (save maybe that one in Jacksonville): Coastal Carolina, at Mississippi, Mississippi State, at Tennessee, at Vanderbilt, Florida, New Mexico State, Auburn, Kentucky, at Georgia Tech.
I know. Last season, nobody would’ve expected such a complete program unraveling, an early season-smothering, four-game losing streak, and defeats to Mississippi State, Colorado and Central Florida. But where are the losses here? One or two early. Maybe Florida. Maybe Georgia Tech for rivalry sake. Auburn and Tennessee aren’t any good. Mississippi State is decent but it’s hard to imagine Georgia losing to them two years in a row (this time in Athens). I’m going 9-3. (My complete game-by-game Georgia breakdown will be coming in the AJC’s football section on Aug. 28.)
♦ GEORGIA TECH (6): Go over (I’m sure. I think). For every Georgia fan who wonders, “How do you lose to Colorado?” there’s a Tech fan asking, “How do you lose to Kansas?” The Jackets should — should — mow through the first three games (Western Carolina, at Middle Tennessee State, Kansas ). Florida State is not on the schedule but there’s a difficult stretch in the middle: at Miami, Clemson, Virginia Tech. But the rest of the ACC really isn’t that good. The Jackets also have 16 days between the Virginia Tech and Georgia games, with only Duke in the middle.
Tech has lost a lot of talent in the last two years but coach Paul Johnson seems to enjoy being around this team more and expects better leadership. I’m going 8-4 on the Jackets with four losses coming among six opponents: North Carolina State, Virginia, Miami, Clemson, Virginia Tech, Georgia.
See. That was easy. What could possibly go wrong?
By Jeff Schultz
♦
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235 comments Add your comment
gtfanfrom1951
August 4th, 2011
1:08 pm
Tech 10-2
Uga 8-4
Falcons 11-3
Tech loses to Va. tech and Miami
Jackets 2011
August 4th, 2011
1:08 pm
@wrecked.
With the talent Georgia gets over the decades, just think what you could have done if a coach like Saban had been hired instead of Goff, Donnan or Richt.
Three or four MNCs?
Top five program?
Too bad.
Hope the NCAA has Some Lubricate Handy
August 4th, 2011
1:11 pm
Tech is going to shock everyone, win the ACC and CPJ is going to shove the trophy up the NCAA’s, uh, well, you get the picture. I hope CPJ sells tickets to the shoving event.
Really???
August 4th, 2011
1:13 pm
Joe Tess @ 12:56 -
You wrote “Flacons barley win 4 games this year they waisted all there draft picks on thug from Bama so it will only get worst next year.”
You should’ve written “The Falcons will barely win four games this year. They wasted all their draft picks on thug from ‘Bama, so it will only get worse next year.”
See what I did there?
Calvin Ogletree Simpkins
August 4th, 2011
1:13 pm
UGA t-shirts 1/2 price at Walmart today. They have really nice ones that are red with a black G on the chest but only in small. All UGA caps are regular price. Clearance prices on towels with misspelling “Buldog.” Time to stock up.
Let NONE in
August 4th, 2011
1:14 pm
Auburn won’t be as good because they had to cut payroll.
Really???
August 4th, 2011
1:14 pm
Sorry, I left out an “a” between “on” and “thug.” My apologies.
Not so fast my friends
August 4th, 2011
1:15 pm
Ole Miss, Miss St, UT are not going to be as “easy” as everyone thinks! The most underrated team in the SEC will the Bulldogs, just not the Bulldogs most people think. UGA fans, don’t be surprised if the Dawgs lose 2 of the 3 games: Miss, MSU, UT.
Red Stick (formerly Jumbeauxtiger)
August 4th, 2011
1:16 pm
@ark void surrounded by a sphincter muscle “Did you got to Tech? and…..Happy to help!”
Nope LSU grad and this season is my 30th as a season ticket holder with 27 of those years living in Georgia.
I simply listed the top 10 and the SEC schools who are ranked, just in case you couldn’t figure that out
Ted M
August 4th, 2011
1:17 pm
Who is gonna start at QB for tech?
WayxDog
August 4th, 2011
1:18 pm
Auburn is having salary cap diffuculties.
Danno
August 4th, 2011
1:21 pm
What a HOMER! I love it that you underestimate a Tennessee team this year. Different quarterback, and they finished their season with the same number of wins as Georgia after they changed QB’s.. I absolutely LOVE it when you guys underestimate the Vols. That is usually the games the Vols lay 50 on you. Remember the last time the Vols knocked you out of a title game and you had to settle for Hawaii? LOL. Keep talking about how the Vols arent any good Homer! We will se this year!
tony
August 4th, 2011
1:21 pm
AltamahaDawg, I think he should of hired a OC after the 2003 season because the playcalling was exceptionally bad. We have had the talent to win at least 2 NC but in my opinion the offense just don’t do enough against good teams.
From 2002 to 2011 Ga is rank #2 in recruiting behind USC Trojans. Mr.Richt and Pete Carroll were hired the same year(2001). Pete won 2 NC and 6 Conference Championships but Mark Richt only won 2 Conference Championships. Remember, these 2 coaches have been the #1 and #2 best recruiting programs from 2002-11.
Pete Carrol team ranking
DHD
August 4th, 2011
1:22 pm
Falcons 12, Dawgs 10, Jackets 8
30 That would be about the best it could be.
Joey
August 4th, 2011
1:22 pm
Falcons 10-6
Jackets 8-5
Dogs 8-5*
*If UGA somehow starts 2-0, I reserve the right to amend this prediction to 10-3.
Thank you.
jarvis
August 4th, 2011
1:23 pm
Am I the only one that is sick of the Johnson / Richt handshake picture?
T3
August 4th, 2011
1:24 pm
Here’s my 2011 forecast:
1. W: Western Carolina.
Why this game is important: All 3 GT QBs will get playing time.
GT will see begin to see a leader at QB emerge. GT Defense will be
play lights out for first-half then D subs will play.
2. W: MTSU:
Why this game is important. Again, more GT QB evaluation.
GT D will show that their for real in 2011.
3. W: Kansas: GT wins 49-0.
GT will finally settle on a starting QB.
GT D will shut out Kansas.
4. W: UNC.
GT really shows theyve got all the pieces working well.
GT wins a close one: 27-24
5. W: NCSTATE
GT D proves their strength.
GT wins another clsoe one: 33-23
6. W: Maryland
CPJ despises Edsell.
GT wins in a beatdown: 39-24
7. W: UVA
UVA coach London is till trying to rebuild UVA.
UVA lost more talent from 2010 than any other ACC team.
GT crushes UVA: 47-24
8. L: MIami
Miami has the biggest O & D lines in the ACC.
This will be a very tough game. GT loses 34-24
9: W: Clemson (Toss-Up)
Will GT be at full strength after very tough Miami game.
10. W: VT
GT gets 10 day layoff.
VT is once again highly over-rated.
GT in a BEATDOWN GT 49 VT:23.
11. W: Duke:
GT in another beatdown: GT:36 Duke:23
12: W: UGA
UGA cant stop GT’s run game.
GT’s D hits all cylinders.
GT blasts SEC East Champs UGA.
GT 42 UGA 24. GT
GT loses very close ACC-CG to FSU.
GT blasts USCe in Chik-Fil-A bowl: GT: 41 USCe: 24
jarvis
August 4th, 2011
1:25 pm
What’s the Vegas number of Shultz vs. Mrs. Grimes? I’ve got Grimes in the 8th.
GT Fan
August 4th, 2011
1:25 pm
Potter my friend,
If your life was on the line do really think you’d chose to die by predicting 10 Ls for GT? Yeah, didn’t think so.
Same goes for all the UGA fans voting GT on the Under in poll.
UGA 1999
August 4th, 2011
1:30 pm
Falcons will win more than 10.5. I say 12ish.
You are correct with Georgia winning 8.
You are correct with GT winning 5.
UGA 1999
August 4th, 2011
1:31 pm
T3….you really think GT is going to beat UGA this year? What makes you think that?
Hoops
August 4th, 2011
1:31 pm
Georgia at Tennessee. The Vols will lay the wood to Georgia!
Mississippi St. will also beat the Dawgs!
UGA 1999
August 4th, 2011
1:31 pm
Hoops there is NO way the Vols beat the dogs. NO way!
MSU will be a better game but they are not there yet either.
dtanner
August 4th, 2011
1:34 pm
FIRE MARK RICHT!
Lowcountry Bulldawg
August 4th, 2011
1:35 pm
UT has the weapons offensively for sure. The question will be can they stop anybody. Defensively they are in trouble, but with Rodgers,Hunter,Brey and the RB ( Is it Poole?) all returning they will put some points up. We should be nervous about that game for sure.
dbc
August 4th, 2011
1:39 pm
Wow. Huge news came out of Baton Rouge today, as Steve Kragthorpe has given up his role of offensive coordinator after being diagnosed with Parkinson’s disease.
The school released a quote from Kragthorpe where the coach says he hopes to remain quarterbacks coach for “the next 8 to 12 years,” but he will no longer be the play caller. Offensive line coach Greg Studrawa, who was offensive coordinator at Bowling Green after Urban Meyer left from 2003-06, will take over as coordinator and play caller. He has been LSU’s offensive line coach since the 2007 national championship season.
Obviously this is a big shock to the system of a team expected to contend for the West title and be among the nation’s five best teams. It’s far too early to say how this might affect the team, but obviously thoughts and prayers go out to Kragthorpe and his family as they begin dealing with this awful disease.
No sooner do we get really pumped about football season, and real life rears its ugly head. My thoughts and best wishes go out to all LSU fans. Some things are just more important than football.
Bodda Getta
August 4th, 2011
1:39 pm
Auburn (14), Jackets (11), Falcons (8), Dogs (5).
Red Stick (formerly Jumbeauxtiger)
August 4th, 2011
1:43 pm
Jeff,
I left off Miss St as a game that I don’t think is “easily winnable” as well. I don’t see how you can have Auburn, Tenn and Ms St grouped with the rest of those.
Dean Tate
August 4th, 2011
1:46 pm
UGA has major offensive line problems. No depth at all. If they avoid any injuries (doubtful), they may be OK. But a true freshman or two is going to have to step up and help or the offense could be in big trouble.
Stinger2
August 4th, 2011
1:46 pm
Falcons 9 or 10 wins
Dawgs 10 wins Lose only to SC, Fla.
Jackets 7 wins
The Walking Yech
August 4th, 2011
1:48 pm
Tech has a QB? I thought they just picked the fastest guy that likes to touch fat boys’ butts.
Stinger2
August 4th, 2011
1:48 pm
Jarvis: No you are not the only one tired of the CMR/Johnson picture.
Schultz: Can`t you find something else?
St. Richt
August 4th, 2011
1:49 pm
Over, under, over. He was over Under and Under was over Done.
Sopwith Camel
August 4th, 2011
1:49 pm
DBC, thanks for the news update (ahead of any AJC sports writers I might add).
The Walking Yech
August 4th, 2011
1:52 pm
Very true dbc. Prayers to the Olivadatti and Kragthorpe families as well.
You know I love all you Nerds! Prayers to you as well. Football is a game and there are much more important things in life to worry about. Just have fun and be blessed with what you do have.
Tucker
August 4th, 2011
1:53 pm
Georgia State 6.5
gdawginkalamazoo
August 4th, 2011
1:56 pm
tony, the standard for the National Championship this decade has been the crystal football, Pete has one of those. Richt has been close a couple of times in that same time period. I know that close doesn’t cut but it’s not like Richt has been out in left field either. Besides, why did Petey leave USC? Because Seattle offered him a spot? No. It was because the hammer was on its way down.
Jackets 2011
August 4th, 2011
1:56 pm
Tech’s QB will be Tevin Washington.
I am going to leave the decision-making to the coaches.
With Tech’s system, it is great to have depth 3 or 4 deep.
Tevin played pretty good last year and the job is his.
If he plays better, he can really nail it down.
Nesbit was injured at times all three years, though 2009 he only lost a quarter in the Georgia game.
The backups will probably get a chance to prove they are better.
gt4ever
August 4th, 2011
1:57 pm
Here we go again……..T3 is drinking again……
reebok
August 4th, 2011
1:58 pm
I thiink the Birds win 9 and miss the playoffs by a game. Dogs win 9 or 10 and contend for the East spot in the SEC championship game. Tech wins 8, but losses to Miami, Clemson and VA Tech in a row leave us well out of contention in the ACC.
So glad college football is back!
BAMA Dude
August 4th, 2011
1:58 pm
Gimme over on the Falcons, even on the Dawgs and Wreck.
Columbus
August 4th, 2011
2:00 pm
Falcons 11-5 or 12-4. Depends on how fast Jones is a serious WR threat defenses have to cover and how soon a 3rd receiver steps up. With addition of Edwards the Falcons could go 14-2 but again it all depends on how fast the offense gets clicking. It took GB until late in the season last year so we will see.
Georgia. With SC at home UGA will be 9-3 at worst and VERY possibly 11-1. With their 2 MOST difficult games on paper at home 12-0 is also not out of the question but even if they win the 1st two, it will be hard for the young QB and running back to not have a good game or a turnover in a close game down the road so while not likely, this could be another 1980 and you know what, it’s about time! and there are several similiarities between 1979/1980 and 2010/2011.
Tech? Who knows. I say at least 7 games but the question is has other teams defenses adjusted to Tech’s option offense and if so what is Tech going to do to counter? Do they have the players to hang in there against the tougher opponents? I think Clemson is about to pull away the next few years in the ACC so Tech better be VERY good on D and at running the option. 7-9 wins is my thinking.
West guy. you mean UGA 38 MSU 14 right? Son you are not at home this year and the crowd will play a huge role. UGA is going to be much better at NOT turning the ball over and has a home run hitting RB who can also catch. They have a year of experience under the belt with the new pro defensive scheme. UGA is going to be better in every area, will control the clock more and be at home.
UGA 28 MSU 20. If fortunate enough to score that many on this D. The D played great last year in most games, it was the offense who had suspensions, turnovers and untimely penalties and could not run the ball. The special teams and turnovers led to many scores that were not the fault of the D. I expect the defense to be MUCH stingier this year so you might be scoring 10 or less. No team might score 20 except Boise. South Carolina will NOT score 20.
BAMA Dude
August 4th, 2011
2:03 pm
Columbus, you don’t have the offensive line to run the table in the SEC. Hell, for that matter, you don’t have the running backs or receivers either. UGA won’t be awful, but that 11-1 deal is a pipe dream. I honestly believe USCe is gonna have their way with you early and another couple will drop along the way.
Furman Bishop
August 4th, 2011
2:05 pm
8-4 sounds about right to me. Injuries will happen. Thin offensive line. Bobo still calling the plays. Boise State might be better then a lot of UGA fans give them credit for. Spurrier or Richt….who would you rather have as your coach? UGA could easily lose two from Ms. State,UT,FL (Richt vs. FL:2-8),Auburn who might not be as bad as Schultzie thinks. Yeh, 8-4 is about right. McGarity who has no more backbone or whatever then the Black dude he replaced will still keep Richt on if he goes 8-4. So the Richt fans need not worry. The rest of the UGA fans who yearn for a top-tier program will get screwed again. They should be used to it by now. Thus it is at UGA.
GStateBen
August 4th, 2011
2:07 pm
Basing your numbers on a site that will suspend your account if you win too much money. Not a good idea Jeff. You’re better than that.
Columbus
August 4th, 2011
2:07 pm
“*If UGA somehow starts 2-0, I reserve the right to amend this prediction to 10-3.”
If UGA wins the 2 hardest games on the schedule you will predict 10-3? Who will they lose to since they just beat the defending SEC East champs and a top 10 team in the nation? Maybe UF, UT or MSU? I know for a fact that UGA will not lose all 3 of these games. I dont think they will lose 2 of them. So that would be 11-1. Your thinking seems very illogical so what is it based on?
heartofdarkness
August 4th, 2011
2:08 pm
If there is a injury or reduction in efficiency in the backfield of any of these teams, would that move you from over to under? Seems like Tech is the least vulnerable among this group, UGA the most.
T3
August 4th, 2011
2:08 pm
UGA 1999
I am confident that GT Offense will be 1 TD better in 2011 than 2010.
I am also confident GT Defense will be 1 TD better in 2011 than 2010.
GT O will score 1 more TD per game.
GT D will allow 1 less TD per game.
In 2010, that alone would have added wins over Kansas, Clemson, VT and UGA.
Just Nesbitt staying healthy in 2010 would have added wins over VT and UGA.
2010 could be summed up with 2 keys: Turnovers and Special Teams.
Those 2 areas were the DECIDING factors in 5 of 7 GT losses in 2010.
Those 2 areas were the key factors in losses to: NCST, Clemson, Miami, VT, UGA.
However, Miami would still have been a very tough out,
even without 2 second-half TOs in the red zone.
Turnovers and Special Teams wont be problems in 2011.
reebok
August 4th, 2011
2:10 pm
perhaps T3 is drinking STILL…
Boise in ATL
August 4th, 2011
2:11 pm
As a causal observer – and huge college football fan:
UGA has so many changes going on and questions:
– RB situation
– O-Line situation
– WR’s transitions
Defense – new LB corp.
– second year in 3/4 when they STILL struggled toward end of season – how much improvement will UGA see?
– How will new DL perform?
– will new S&C program yield results?
– team psyche?
Just a HUGE amount going on – and opening with two tough opponents when UGA needs some time to jell into a team.
So – How does it break down?
WINS: Coastal Carolina, Ole Miss, Vandy, New Mexico State, GT
Losses: Boise, USCe, Florida
Swing games: Mississippi State, Tennessee and Auburn
This sure looks like 8-4 to me – could be 7-5 or 9-3.
UGA will need a few games for the offense to get it going and jell – will have to depend heavily on the defense early in the season.
Loss to Boise – too many changes and moving parts against a strong Boise team returning 14 starters. Boise will be in mid season form and will jump out early – UGA will make a game of it – but if the game is close in the 4Q – Boise will win this game. I could easily see Boise up 10- 0 or 14-0 very early in this game – similar to the VT game when Boise came out smoking hot – and pulled out the victory at the end of the game.
USCe – problem here is South Carolina NOW knows it can beat UGA. Confidence in close games used to be USCe downfall – now they know they can beat UGA, Spurrier knows he can beat UGA win – and that is huge. Confidence and will to win is HUGE in the 4Q – and Carolina NOW knows they can win the physcial games against the UGA’s and the Tennessee’s of the SEC.
Kind of a reversal – used to see how USCe would find ways to lose games – and now UGA is like to old South Carolina. This will be a very physcal game – and UGA had better hope the new found S&C will work for the defense in the 4Q and the O-Line will be able to run block – as last year – it was pretty pathetic.
Florida- Wow – what can you say – Florida was a mediocre team last year – and still was better than UGA. Problem here is Florida is more talented than UGA – and has more speed. Even though a new staff is in play – this game is late enough in the year that Florida will have it rolling by then.
Muschamp on Defense is huge. Weiss on offense – is huge (no jokes please). Say what you will about Weiss as HC at ND – but as an OC – the man is excellent.
Weiss vs Bobo?
Muschamp vs Grantham?
This will be a great game – but ALWAYS go with Florida in this game until UGA actually wins a few of these. Richt has a losing record against 3 Florida coaches – Spurrier, Zook and Meyer. Florida somehow wills themselves to win this game – even if UGA has a better team – they find ways to keep Florida in it.
Other concerns:
Auburn will fall off greatly – but the staff is good and they have excellent young talent – a dangerous team that should be playing bvery good football end of the year. If UGA struggles this year – this game is ripe for the upset. Which is the history of this game.
Tennessee – UGA should win – but again – strange things can happen in Knoxville. UGA should have won last visit to Knoxville – but got blown out by Kiffen and Company. Tennessee will be improved over last year – so will UGA. UGA seems to have one or two let down games a year that are hard to explain – and Tennessee could win this game.
Mississippi State – let’s face it – MSU out played, out fought, out coached UGA last year. As improved as MSU was last year – they were still the 5th place SEC West team last year. UGA should NEVER lose to the #5 SEC West team. This just shows how poor UGA was (along with losses to Colorado and UCF). UGA should win this game – but if the offense has not found itself by this game – look out for the upset. The defense better be ready.
That’s it – best of luck to UGA – and hope Georgia considers a trip to the SMURF TURF one year!